Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703

DOI 10.1007/s10040-017-1669-y

PAPER

Conservation planning as an adaptive strategy for climate change

and groundwater depletion in Wadi El Natrun, Egypt
Harris Switzman 1,2,3 & Boshra Salem 4 & Mohamed Gad 5 & Zafar Adeel 1,2,6 &
Paulin Coulibaly 1,2

Received: 13 January 2017 / Accepted: 11 September 2017 / Published online: 4 October 2017
# Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Abstract In drylands, groundwater is often the sole source of WEN has been subjected to groundwater depletion and qual-
freshwater for industrial, domestic and agricultural uses, while ity degradation since the 1990s, attributed to agricultural and
concurrently supporting ecosystems. Many dryland aquifers industrial groundwater usage. Initiatives have been proposed
are becoming depleted due to over-pumping and a lack of to increase the sustainability of the groundwater resource in
natural recharge, resulting in loss of storage and future water the study area, but they have yet to be evaluated.
supplies, water-level declines that reduce access to freshwater, Simultaneously, there are also proposals to increase the extent
water quality problems, and, in extreme cases, geologic haz- of arable land and thus demand for freshwater. In this study,
ards. Conservation is often proposed as a strategy for manag- three water management scenarios are developed and assessed
ing groundwater to reduce or reverse the depletion, although to the 2060s for their impact on groundwater resources using a
there is a need to better understand its potential effectiveness hydrogeologic model. Results demonstrate that demand man-
and benefits at the local scale. This study assesses the impact agement implemented through an optimized irrigation and
of water-conservation planning strategies on groundwater re- crop rotation strategy has the greatest potential to significantly
sources in the Wadi El Natrun (WEN) area of northern Egypt. reduce risk of groundwater depletion compared to the other
two scenarios—Bbusiness as usual^ and B30% water-use
reduction^—that were evaluated.
This article is part of the topical collection BClimate-change research by
early-career hydrogeologists^
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article
(https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1669-y) contains supplementary Keywords Egypt . Climate change . Water-resources
material, which is available to authorized users. conservation . Arid regions . Groundwater management

* Harris Switzman
harris.switzman@gmail.com
Introduction
1
Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, 1280 Main Through its use in agricultural irrigation, domestic settings,
Street W, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada and industrial water supply, groundwater has been key to eco-
2
United Nations University—Institute for Water Environment and nomic and land development activities aimed at increasing
Health, 204–175 Longwood Road South, Hamilton, ON L8P 0A1, human security globally, particularly in dryland environments.
Canada
Currently, for example, 43% of global water consumption for
3
Present address: WaterSMART Solutions Ltd., Calgary, AB, Canada irrigation is from groundwater, and a significant portion of this
4
Alexandria University, 2 El-Guish Road, consumption is in dryland environments (Siebert et al. 2010;
Alexandria, El-Shatby 21526, Egypt Aeschbach-Hertig and Gleeson 2012; MacDonald 2012). Due
5
Desert Research Centre, Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and Land to a lack of alternative freshwater sources, the paucity of nat-
Reclamation, 1 Mathaf El Matariya Street, Cairo 11753, Egypt ural surface recharge, the uniqueness of groundwater-
6
Present address: Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada dependent ecological systems, and the strong reliance of
690 Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703

livelihoods on arid agriculture and land reclamation activities, increasing the efficiency of water use technology (i.e., irriga-
drylands present a unique challenge in groundwater manage- tion application; Ward and Pulido-Velazquez 2008), selecting
ment (Whitfield and Reed 2012). In many dryland environ- crops, economic activities or industrial uses that require less
ments where groundwater is heavily relied upon as the sole water and are thus the highest value use (Marston et al. 2015),
source of freshwater, water budgets are in significant deficit artificially recharging aquifers, wastewater reuse, and large
due to intensive abstraction and other stressors such as pollu- infrastructure projects, such as surface water diversion or de-
tion, resulting in a range of impacts to human and natural salination (Aeschbach-Hertig and Gleeson 2012). Despite the
systems (Döll 2009; Fan et al. 2013; Voss et al. 2013; potential benefits of Bno-regrets^ conservation options, there
Werner et al. 2013; Famiglietti 2014). Common impacts of is a need to examine the potential impact of such measures on
groundwater depletion in dryland communities include salini- groundwater resources at the local scale.
zation of aquifers (van Weert et al. 2009), lowering of water The project reported here seeks to contribute to the knowl-
levels and drying of wells and groundwater-dependent surface edge base on the development of effective water conservation
water bodies (Fan et al. 2013), loss of hydraulic head causing strategies in the context of climate change and groundwater
increased pumping and drilling costs (Konikow and Kendy depletion. This is accomplished using a case study of the Wadi
2005), and numerous cascading social, ecological and eco- El Natrun area in northern Egypt. Within this study area, sev-
nomic effects. And as demand for groundwater in dryland eral policies and management measures have been suggested
regions continues to rise due to increases in population and as strategies for addressing combined groundwater depletion
growing global demand for food grown in arid regions, and climate change stresses to improve the efficiency of agri-
groundwater depletion and degradation of subsurface water cultural water use in the Wadi El Natrun area. These strategies
quality are being compounded (Wada et al. 2010). include piped water from the Nile River, wastewater reuse,
Changes in the global climate are already, and are projected artificial aquifer recharge, desalination, and conservation
to continue, adding pressure on the profile of groundwater through economic instruments and more efficient irrigation
impacts in dryland areas, primarily through the intensification technologies (Attia et al. 2007; El Arabi 2012; El-Ganzori
of arid climates and occurrence of more frequent and severe 2012; El-din 2013). Alterative livelihoods, crop diversifica-
droughts resulting in a lack of moisture (Taylor et al. 2012b; tion and more strict enforcement of water allocation agree-
Schewe et al. 2014). Climate change has been shown to influ- ments have also been proposed as potential conservation mea-
ence groundwater systems directly by affecting the amount of sures (Baietti et al. 2005; Salem et al. 2011; King and Salem
groundwater recharge (Green et al. 2011). The intensification 2012) and recent work has demonstrated the potential benefit
of arid climates as a result of climate change has the potential of such measures to offset the economic costs of groundwater
to indirectly affect groundwater by creating heightened de- degradation (King and Salem 2013).
mand for groundwater supplies, particularly for irrigation. While much of the information required to implement
Wada and Bierkens (2014) have estimated an approximate groundwater conservation strategies in Wadi El Natrun exists,
three-fold increase in global groundwater withdrawals and there is no estimate of the potential impact of such scenarios
consumption between the 1960s and 2060s associated with on groundwater resources themselves in the context of climate
climate change and increased needs for freshwater supplies. change. Ultimately, the specific aim of this paper is to deter-
A unique challenge in managing groundwater in the context mine whether certain water conservation strategies have the
of climate change, especially in drylands, is that although it is a potential to reduce future-projected trends in groundwater
common resource, individual water users tend to abstract degradation for the Wadi El Natrun area.
groundwater at will, often in the absence of robust management
schemes and information on the cumulative impacts of such
actions (Mukherji 2005; Shiferaw et al. 2008; Whitfield and Study area
Reed 2012). As a result, it is a challenge for local governments
to effectively balance multiple human and ecosystem needs for Wadi El Natrun is an endorheic depression, located at the
high quality freshwater in drylands, particularly as climate eastern boundary of the Egyptian Western desert, just west
change exacerbates depletion of groundwater resources. of the Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road (CADR) approximately
Despite the aforementioned challenges, there exist many 90 km north of Cairo (Fig. 1). The area is classified as hyper-
strategies for adapting to the effects of climate change and arid, receiving approximately 31.5 mm of precipitation per
groundwater depletion in dryland environments. Chief among year and 1,515 mm of evapotranspiration (Switzman et al.
these strategies is conservation, or demand management, 2015). Despite these environmental conditions, Wadi Natrun
which is often regarded as a Bno-regrets^ option in sustainable supports an extensive agricultural sector that is increasing in
water-resource management and climate adaptation (Gleick both spatial extent and economic value (Salem et al. 2011).
2003; Ward and Pulido-Velazquez 2008). Common forms of The area of Wadi El Natrun has a population of approxi-
conservation advocated by water resource managers include mately 72,000 people living in approximately 18,000
Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703 691

Fig. 1 Map of study area highlighting the Wadi El Natrun depression (coordinates in UTM Zone 37)

households concentrated in approximately seven small vil- expand the area of cultivated land by an additional 3.4 million
lages (King 2011). Agriculture and related activities are the ha (MWRI 2005). In the NWRP, much of this reclamation is
most important economic sectors in Wadi El Natrun, dependent upon private investors using groundwater for irri-
supporting over 60% of the jobs and providing important gation. The high level of groundwater use and certain land
sources of food for domestic consumption locally, nationally management practices associated with dryland reclamation
and increasingly for export (King and Salem 2013). Much of in Wadi El Natrun has however, resulted in the degradation
the remaining employment is in support of industry associated of groundwater quality and quantity.
with the harvesting of salt from Wadi El Natrun’s saline lake, Primary concerns in Wadi El Natrun are the mobilization
mining and construction (King and Salem 2013). of saline groundwater, pollution from wastewater and the
use of agrochemicals, and declining water levels attributed
Water supply, demand and climate change pressures to over-pumping (King and Salem 2012; Salem et al. 2011;
Ibrahim 2005; Fattah 2011). There is limited quantification
In Egypt, agriculture constitutes over 81% of total water of the salinization and pollution problems; however, the
consumption, and although groundwater only constitutes average rate of decline in the water table is approximately
3% of the country’s total water consumption, in certain 1 m/year (Switzman et al. 2015). These problems have
regions it accounts for a significant portion of, if not all, raised questions about the sustainability of the current wa-
water use (El-din 2013). This is the case in the Wadi El ter and land use, particularly as climate change is projected
Natrun area of the Western Desert, where groundwater is to add additional pressure on water demand and ecological
used exclusively. It is also used conjunctively with surface requirements in the area (Attia et al. 2007; El Ganzori
water in the areas to the east and north of Wadi El Natrun 2013). The extent of agricultural land, and thus groundwa-
(Attia et al. 2007). Surface water for this conjunctive use is ter abstraction in Wadi El Natrun, has increased significant-
supplied from the Nile Rosetta branch and the associated ly over time (Dawoud et al. 2005; Baietti et al. 2005), plac-
irrigation and drainage canal network. The Rosetta Branch ing significant pressure on both the quality and availability
is located 25 km to the east of Wadi El Natrun and the of freshwater. Since the 1950s, the extent of agricultural
irrigation and drainage canal network borders the eastern area has grown five-fold (Switzman et al. 2015). Previous
boundary of the depression. modeling and monitoring suggest that in some areas of
Groundwater abstraction in the Egyptian Western Desert Wadi El Natrun, groundwater levels have declined by be-
has been driven by several policies to expand the area of tween 10 and 20 m between 1990 and 2000 (Switzman et al.
desert-reclaimed land in the area. By the end of 2017, the 2015; King 2011; Ibrahim 2005; Baietti et al. 2005).
Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation’s Declining groundwater levels have also been accompanied
(MWRI) National Water Resources Plan (NWRP) intends to by increased salinization of wells and contamination due to
692 Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703

land use practices (Abdelkhalek 2013). A key conclusion Methods and materials
from several modeling studies (Switzman et al. 2015; Dawoud
et al. 2005; Diab et al. 2002; El-Din 2013) is that the overall The coupled irrigation-groundwater model for the Wadi El
groundwater budget is in deficit, a finding that supports the Natrun area presented in Switzman et al. (2015) was used to
observations of local water users. A 2009 inventory by the simulate groundwater levels under different water conserva-
MWRI indicated that there were approximately 1,050 wells tion strategy scenarios at a monthly interval from 2012 to
in use in the Wadi El Natrun depression alone, at an average 2062. This represents a 50-year planning horizon from the
spacing of three wells per kilometer. Another 4,200 wells are end of the historical period of 2012. Climate change was in-
located in the surrounding area. These values likely underes- corporated into each scenario using an ensemble of output
timate the true inventory of wells because they are based on from global climate models that were bias-corrected. The con-
official records, and many well users operate without permits servation strategy scenarios were developed through consul-
(Salem et al. 2011). A recent survey by Salem et al. (2011) tation with local informants and through a literature review of
demonstrates that well spacing is much denser, at up to one relevant water planning documents for the Wadi El Natrun
well per 50 m on small farms. area. Once a concept for each scenario was developed, it
Recent studies in North Africa have shown that climatic was implemented by adjusting the groundwater abstraction.
changes are already apparent, and are influencing local water Figure 2 provides a summary of the modeling process used,
budgets, along with the timing and magnitude of demand, and the following subsections provide details on the ground-
particularly for agriculture (McCarl et al. 2015; Corbeels water model used, the climate change scenarios, and the con-
2012; Eid et al. 2006). In the Wadi El Natrun area, climate servation strategy scenarios.
change is projected to increase reference evapotranspiration
by more than 9% by 2025, while precipitation patterns are Groundwater model
expected to remain unchanged (Terink et al. 2013). Flows
and water quality of surface-water bodies such as the Nile The Switzman et al. (2015) model is a three-dimensional (3-
River, which is hydraulically connected to the groundwater D) finite difference groundwater flow model implemented in
system in Wadi El Natrun, are predicted to become increas- MODFLOW-NWT that is driven by well pumping and sur-
ingly variable and exposed to extreme weather due to climate face recharge scenarios developed using statistical relation-
change (Booij et al. 2011). ships in the computer program R. The relevant water use
and irrigation efficiency routines in the one-dimensional (1-
Hydrogeology D)- recharge and well pumping models in Switzman et al.
(2015) were adjusted to account for the changes required by
From deepest to shallowest, the aquifers in Wadi El Natrun each conservation management scenario. Further details on
are known as the Miocene, Pliocene and Pleistocene aqui- the specific modifications are presented in section
fers. The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is a ‘Determination of conservation-based adaptation scenarios’
deep trans-boundary aquifer system that underlays, and is where the scenarios are described in detail. Within the Wadi
theorized to recharge the Miocene aquifer in Wadi El El Natrun area, this model has an accuracy of approximately
Natrun across a deep transverse fault (Geirnaert 1992; 4 m based on the root mean squared error (RMSE). Based on
Zaghloul et al. 1999; El-Sheikh 2000). The hydrogeologic the model error relative to the potential changes in groundwa-
setting in the Wadi El Natrun area is complex, and there is ter heads observed, this level of accurate overall spatial-
still significant uncertainty as to the precise flow regime temporal fit of the model can be regarded as being acceptable
and hydraulic connections between the aquifers. for the type of management comparison in this study. The
Nonetheless, multiple studies have observed both local model was able to successfully reproduce historical trends in
and regional groundwater flow to be concentrated toward groundwater heads across the domain in both space and time
the base of the valley where it discharges to 11 saline lakes (Switzman et al. 2015). For the current study, the ensemble
(Switzman et al. 2015; Masoud and Atwia 2010; Ibrahim mean from Switzman et al. (2015) was employed. Results
2005, 2007; RIGW1992; Sharaky et al. 2007;). These sa- were interpreted by determining whether changes shown in
line lakes support a range of important desert wetland eco- the modeling were greater or less than the RMSE of the model
systems and shorebird populations (Awad 2002), and also for the area analyzed.
provide an important source of grazing area for local shep-
herds (Salem et al. 2011). These lakes are also used for salt Climate change scenarios
harvesting, and are a local tourist attraction (Shortland
2004). Additional details on the study site hydrogeology Given the importance of climate to both the supply and de-
are provided in the electronic supplementary material mand sides of water resource systems (Milly et al. 2008;
(ESM). Green et al. 2011), efforts were made to incorporate climate
Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703 693

Fig. 2 Modeling process Climate change scenario daily me Calculate daily reference
diagram for testing the impact of series evapotranspiraon
climate change and water [5-member CMIP5 ensemble daily [ASCE Penman-Monteith
output for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5] method in R]
conservation scenarios on
groundwater in Wadi El Natrun
CONSERVATION STRATEGY SCENARIOS Bias-correcon
[as in Watanabe et al.
Conservaon Conservaon Conservaon
(2012)]
Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C
Same 20% reducon Opmized
assumpons as from Scenario A cropping
documented in paerns Calculate daily irrigaon
Switzman et al. determined in return-flow and
2015 CropWat 8.0 groundwater recharge
[1-D water balance model
in R (Switzman et al.
2015)]

Stochasc, spaally
distributed water use
Compute monthly
variables (volume, ming,
stascs of recharge and
locaon)
ET for input into
MODFLOW

Well locaons Calculate monthly well Groundwater Surface

[as in Switzman pumping rates recharge evaporaon
et al. 2015] [Dynamic R model from [MODFLOW RCH [MODFLOW EVT
Switzman et al. 2015] Module] Module]

Well pumping
[MODFLOW WEL Module]

Dynamic boundary condions Groundwater flow

[as in Switzman et al. 2015] simulaon
[MODFLOW-NWT]

change into the management scenarios. This was accom- chosen as they represent moderate and high degrees of global
plished by using global circulation model (GCM) projections climate change, respectively (Sanford et al. 2014).
to drive evapotranspiration and evaporation within the For each climate change scenario, the raw GCM output
groundwater model. Evapotranspiration is the dominant cli- variables of mean daily relative humidity (rhs), maximum
mate variable influencing both demand in the Wadi El Natrun daily temperature (tasmax), minimum daily temperature
area, which in turn influences the amount of pumping for (tasmin), and mean daily wind speed (sfcwind), were used in
irrigation, and the water balance that determines potential re- the ASCE Standard Reference Evapotranspiration Equation
charge from excess irrigation (El Ganzori 2013). (i.e., modified Penman-Monteith equation) to compute daily
Current best practices related to the use of climate change reference evapotranspiration (ETref). The other parameters in
data in hydrologic modeling suggest that it is advisable to use the equation were kept the same for the baseline period used in
an ensemble of GCMs and emission scenarios to capture a Switzman et al. (2015). This yielded a total of 10 time series of
range of possible climate futures (Green et al. 2011; raw climate-change scenarios of ETref for the GCM cell at the
Teutschbein and Seibert 2012). Guidance on the selection of location of Cairo Airport weather station (i.e., five climate
climate models suggests that as many possible models as is models each run for two emission scenarios). Each realization
reasonable should be used (Knutti et al. 2010). In this study, within the ensemble was then separately bias-corrected to the
the following five GCMs and two emission scenarios from the infilled Cairo station baseline time-series using the procedure
Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) were in Watanabe et al. (2012).
used: INMCM3.0, HADGEM1, GFDL ESM, CSIROMk3.5, Once the bias-correction was completed, four different in-
and MRI CGC2.3.2a (Taylor et al. 2012a). put ETo time series were constructed and inputted into the
CMIP5 employs scenarios called Brelative concentration groundwater model in combination with the conservation sce-
pathways^ (RCPs) to force the global climate models using narios. Two times series were constructed to represent an up-
greenhouse gas concentrations as the primary driver (Taylor per and lower bound from the ensemble for each of the climate
et al. 2012a). The scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The upper bound was
694 Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703

Fig. 3 Summary of the process 10 Bias-

corrected
for developing future climate ET Esmates Monthly me
input time series for the monthly series inpued to
groundwater model Distribuon GW model to
INMCM3.0 for each
RCP4.5 & RCP8.5 bracket uncertainty
Compiled month (1951-2062)
database Mean
HADGEM1 RCP4.5
RCP4.5 & RCP8.5
Mean + SD
SD
GFDL ESM
Mean + SD

Frequency
RCP4.5 & RCP8.5

CSIROMk3.5 RCP8.5
RCP4.5 & RCP8.5 ETo
Mean - SD

MRI CGC2.3.2a
RCP4.5 & RCP8.5 Mean - SD

defined as the mean plus and standard deviation for each horizon from the time of the study. It was assumed that
month and the lower bound was defined as the mean minus the spatial extent of both irrigated land and wells
the standard deviation within the ensemble. Figure 3 provides remained consistent with the geographic distribution of
a summary of the process for developing the two time series these factors at the end of the modeling period in
for each emission scenario inputted into the aforementioned Switzman et al. (2015) for the year 2011 baseline scenario
groundwater model. (Fig. 4 shows the extent of wells modeled in comparison
with the groundwater model boundary).
Determination of conservation-based adaptation scenarios Two other scenarios were developed, representing adapta-
tion to climate change and groundwater degradation: (1) a
One base-case and two conservation-based water use sce- uniform 20% reduction in water consumption across-the-
narios were developed to compare the relative impact of board compared to rates in 2011; and (2) a scenario based
water conservation measures on groundwater degradation on crop rotations optimized to minimize water requires and
risk in the context of climate change. The scenarios were maximize salt tolerance. Each management scenario was run
run from 2011 to 2062, representing at 50-year time in combination with each of the climate change scenarios

Fig. 4 Location of pumping wells and the spatial extent of agricultural land used in the management scenarios
Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703 695

Table 1 Summary of conservation-based adaptation scenarios

Scenario name Water conservation description

A. Baseline water use Historical seasonal patterns of water use were estimated and modeled in Switzman et al. (2015)
B. 20% reduction Uniform 20% reduction in water use in all groundwater-dependent areas from the baseline scenario
C. Optimal use Use of optimized crop rotations to emphasize varieties that are drought and salt-resistant, based on mapping completed in
previous local studies

yielding a total of six input datasets. The three scenarios are technologies and measures are employed to reduce ground-
summarized in Table 1 and additional details are provided in water usage. Water conservation targets are identified in
section ‘Determination of conservation-based adaptation several of Egypt’s climate change adaptation and overall
scenarios’. strategic water management policies and guidelines
(ARECMEEAA 2005; El-Din 2013). Additionally, several
Scenario A: baseline water use recent project proposals specific to the Egyptian Western
Desert have posited that water conservation will be essen-
This scenario was designed to elucidate the impact of the tial to the sustainability of the agricultural and water re-
current conditions (i.e., no changes in irrigation practices) source systems in this area (Attia et al. 2007). Egypt’s
in the Wadi El Natrun depression on groundwater degra- NWRP and Climate Change Adaptation plans do not pro-
dation risk in the context of climate change. From a vide any specific conservation targets; therefore, a target of
groundwater resilience and climate change adaptation per- 20% reduction from 2012 consumption by 2022 was used
spective, this scenario represents a non-adaptive response (Eq. 1). In the absence of any definitive Egyptian policy
to both climate change and groundwater degradation, or objective, 20% was selected as it was recently cited in the
Bbusiness-as-usual^. Implementing this scenario required BThe Stockholm Statement to the 2012 United Nations
no changes to the mathematical routines employed in the Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro
well-pumping and recharge models described in (Rio + 20 Summit)^ as a key target. Specifically, the state-
Switzman et al. (2015), however the ETref time series ment suggests that by 2020, signatories should aim for a
were those described in section ‘Climate change B20% increase in total food supply-chain efficiency… [and]
scenarios’. 20% increase in water efficiency in agriculture^ (United
Nations 2012). It was assumed that in Wadi El Natrun,
Scenario B: 20% reduction–conservation target some water users would achieve this target immediately,
while others would take up to the 10 years (i.e., from
Conservation targets are typically adopted as an overall 2012 to 2022). As such, the time at which each well and
policy objective for a specific area, while multiple possible MODFLOW recharge cell would reach the 20% reduction

Fig. 5 Crop water requirements 45

W a te r U s e / R e q u i r e m e n t (m m /1 0 d a y s )

for selected crops and seasonal 40

groundwater (GW) use in Wadi El 35
Natrun. Crop water requirements
30
were computed using CropWat
8.0. Wadi El Natrun seasonal use 25
was estimated from survey results 20
15
10
5
0
J an F eb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug S ep O ct Nov D ec
Alfalfa B eans
B eet C itrus
D ate P alm G rape
Maize Mango
S unflower T omato
Wheat/B arley Average S eas onal G W Us e
696 Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703

Table 2 Dominant crops and varieties assessed for soil suitability in Wadi El Natrun

Source Cropping patterns

Abdel Kawy (2011) Soil-suitability-assessed crops: beansa, clovera, maizea, onions, potatoes, sugar beetsa, sunflowersa, tomatoes, wheata
Abdel-Hamid et al. (2010) Soil-suitability-assessed crops: alfalfaa, barleya, fodder beetsa, grapesa, wheata
Switzman et al. (2015) Most important crops (small farms): clovera, corna, date palma, garlic, wheata
Most important crops (medium and large farms): beansa, citrus, grapesa, mangoesa, olivesa, pears, tomatoes, wheata
King (2011) Most important crops (small farms): date palma, wheata, various fruit and vegetable varieties
Most important crops (medium and large farms): alfalfaa, beansa, citrusa, grapesa, mangoesa, peaches, vegetables
a
Certain varieties considered drought and salt tolerant (Qadir et al. 2008; Saidi et al. 2009; Allen et al. 1998)

target was assigned randomly. It was also assumed that Scenario C: optimal water use
water use decreases to the 20% target linearly over time.
This process is expressed mathematically in the following This scenario was intended to provide insight into the poten-
formula: tial impacts of optimized irrigation water use in groundwater-
dependent areas of Wadi El Natrun. Information from water
ð1−0:2Þ o user questionnaires, collected as part of studies in the area by
Q20 k;t ¼ Qk;t  t fD j D∈ℤ; 0 < D < 10 < t King (2011) and Switzman et al. (2015), suggests that the
Dk
average seasonal groundwater irrigation use is approximately
ð1Þ
15 and 35 mm/10-day period in the winter and summer, re-
spectively (Fig. 5). These values are in the high range of the
where Q20 is the reduced pumping rate for the location k crop water requirements for a selected set of commonly grown
(well or recharge cell), at time t which is defined as the crops in Wadi El Natrun (Table 2). Some prevailing cropping
number of years since the initiation of the management patterns are water intensive and sensitive to salinity (King and
scenario relative to the year in which that location achieves Salem 2013). This heightened sensitivity to salinity has result-
the full 20% reduction (D). ed in water users increasing irrigation in order to cope with the

Table 3 Crop patterns (crop

system ID, see Fig. 6) Crop pattern Crops Percent Planting Harvest
implemented in CropWat 8.0. area month month
Each crop pattern was applied to
optimal soil zones in the model 1. Based on Abdel Kawy (2011) Beets 100 June January
2. Based on Abdel Kawy (2011) Groundnuts 25 March July
Potatoes 25 October February
Sunflowers 25 May September
Tomatoes 25 May September
3. Based on Abdel Kawy (2011) Alfalfa 25 October September
Barley 25 June December
Beans 25 June October
Maize 25 June October
4. Salt and drought tolerant crops grown on large farms Citrus 20 NA March
(assumes tolerant varieties) Mangoes 20 NA March
Date palm 20 NA October
Grapes 20 NA June
Sunflowers 20 May September
5. Based on Abdel-Hamid et al. (2010) Grapes 60 NA June
Alfalfa 10 October September
Beets 10 June January
Barley 20 June December

NA not applicable, as these crop types represent perennial trees and vines
Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703 697

harmful effects of saline water (Baietti et al. 2005; Salem et al. 90% efficient (Baietti et al. 2005). Each well was random-
2011). The saline nature of both soil and water in the Wadi El ly assigned a service area of 30–45 feddans from a uni-
Natrun area, in combination with declining water levels, sug- form distribution. A feddan is a traditional unit of land
gest that drought and salt tolerant crops would provide a mea- area measurement employed in the Wadi El Natrun area
sure of resilience for producers, with respect to both ground- and one feddan is equivalent to approximately 0.42 ha.
water degradation and increased pressure from climate change CropWat 8.0 (FAO 2017) was used to calculate monthly
(Qadir et al. 2008; Khan et al. 2009). By optimizing irrigation CWRs for the five different cropping systems mapped to
system efficiency and growing drought and salt tolerant crops, optimal soil conditions. Mapping of the optimized
it is hypothesized that farmers could improve resilience to cropping pattern is provided in Fig. 6. Tables 3 and 4
groundwater degradation by requiring less crop irrigation provide summaries of the input parameters for CropWat
while maintaining market-viable agriculture. Selecting 8.0, which requires inputs of rainfall, meteorological var-
cropping patterns optimized to address higher potential evapo- iables (to calculate monthly reference evapotranspiration),
transpiration from climate change and potential sodicity con- soil moisture and rooting properties, and crop response
cerns is the basis of this scenario. variables.
Crop suitability based on the local soil characteristics, al- Climate change was assumed to influence crop water re-
ready deployed technology, farmer preference and capacity, quirements and therefore monthly pumping rates. This was
and market factors have been mapped for the Wadi El incorporated into the well pumping model by multiplying
Naturn area in Abdel-Hamid et al. (2010) and Abdel Kawy the computed CWR by the ET anomaly (ETanom) representing
(2011). Table 2 provides a summary of the dominant crops the percent change relative to the historical period on a month-
grown in Wadi El Natrun, and those assessed for local suit- ly basis for each month in the time series as follows:
ability in previously published studies. Certain varieties of
ETref ðiÞ
these crop types are deemed salt and drought tolerant, thereby ETanom ¼ ð2Þ
ETref ðaÞ
representing more viable options for more dryland farming
and the basis for the alterative cropping patters being the basis
of this scenario (Khan et al. 2009). Those optimal cropping where ETref is the reference evapotranspiration of the month i,
patterns are highlighted in Table 3. and a is the historical mean value for the month of the year.
The Bsoil-suitability-assessed crops^ in Table 3 were im-
plemented in the groundwater model by first determining five
different annual crop rotations that would be optimized to the Results and discussion
soil capability maps presented in Abdel Kawy (2011), Abdel-
Hamid et al. (2010) and Veenenbos et al. (1966). Crop water Climate projections for northern Egypt from CMIP3 have es-
requirements (CWR) for each rotation were then determined, timated increases in ETref of between 7 and 9% by 2050
which was then mapped to a location in the groundwater (Terink et al. 2013). The same study predicted no change in
model domain. precipitation within the same time horizon (Terink et al. 2013).
The monthly MODFLOW pumping rates were Both water and heat stress associated with climate change are
assigned as the CWR for the optimal set of crops for that projected to significantly impact crop productivity, with yields
cell. It was further assumed that the irrigation systems are for staple crops of wheat, beans, rice and maize estimated to

Fig. 6 Map of crop systems used

for the optimal water use scenario
698 Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703

Table 4 Additional CropWat 8.0 input assumptions

CropWat 8.0 Variable Value and assumptions

module

Soil Total available soil moisture (mm/m) 120 (Eid et al. 2006)
Maximum rain infiltration rate (mm/day) 300 is the maximum allowable in CropWat (El-Sheikh 2000)
Maximum rooting depth (cm) 500 is the maximum allowable in CropWat (Abdel-Hamid et al. 2010)
Initial soil moisture depletion (%) 100 assumes that soil is fully depleted in an arid environment with well-drained sandy
soil (Kashouty and Sabbagh 2011)
Rain Effective rainfall (mm) 0 assumes no rainfall considered
Climate/ETref Weather station data Monthly normal (1970–2010) Cairo Airport in-filled data (Switzman et al. 2015)
Crops Crop coefficient, Kc (initial, mid, late)a
Alfalfa 0.40, 1.15, 0.95
Barley 0.80, 1.10, 0.95
Beans 0.80, 1.15, 0.25
Citrus 0.70, 0.60, 0.70
Grapes 0.30, 0.85, 0.45
Groundnuts 0.40, 1.15, 0.60
Date palms 0.90, 0.95, 0.90
Maize 0.60, 1.15, 0.60
Mangoes 0.90, 1.10, 0.90
Potatoes 0.80, 1.15, 0.75
Sunflowers 0.80, 1.15, 0.35
Tomatoes 0.85, 1.20, 0.65
Development stage length, Ld (initial, dev., mid, late)a
Alfalfa 150, 30, 150, 35
Barley 20, 25, 90, 40
Beans 15, 25, 50, 20
Citrus 60, 90, 120, 95
Grapes 150, 50, 125, 40
Groundnuts 25, 35, 45, 25
Date palms 140, 30, 150, 45
Maize 25, 40, 45, 30
Mangoes 90, 90, 90, 95
Potatoes 25, 30, 30, 20
Sunflowers 25, 35, 45, 25
Tomatoes 30, 40, 45, 30
a
Based on values calibrated to local conditions with input local agricultural extension office and CropWat 8.0 default values (dev. development stage)

decrease by between 11 and 28% by 2050 (El-Din 2013). average, increases in evapotranspiration are expected in each
These climate stressors have direct implications for agricultur- month for the period of 2052–2072 (i.e., the period in which
al groundwater use, as farmers will require more water to meet 2062 is the midpoint). January, August and November are the
crop water requirements (Candela et al. 2012). Increases in only months when certain models for the RCP 4.5 scenario pre-
population in Egypt generally, and in Wadi El Natrun, are also dict slight decreases in ETref. All models predict ETref increases
likely to be major drivers of both increased water demand for for the RCP 8.5 scenario. The average annual increase in ETref in
domestic and agricultural uses. the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios is 4.3 and 7.8%, respectively.
Figure 7a shows projected changes in ETref for the period of Within Wadi El Natrun’s water resource system, these in-
2052 to 2072 (i.e., average centered around 2062) for both cli- creases in ETref are anticipated to represent a need for more
mate change scenarios. Figure 7b shows monthly ETref for the irrigation water should the current crop and irrigation practices
baseline period (1957–2011). This analysis shows that, on be continued. The increases in ETref can be also expected to
Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703 699

Fig. 7 a Projected changes in a

ETref for the period of 2052 to

Percent Change in Reference ET

20 Ensemble min. to max. range
2072 (i.e., average centered R C P 8.5 R C P 4.5
around 2062) for both climate Ensemble standard dev on
15
change scenarios, RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5. There are two areas
10
plotted for each RCP. The darker
areas denote the standard
5
deviation of the ensemble and the
more transparent area is the
0
minimum to maximum range for
the ensemble. b Monthly ETref for
-5
the baseline period (1957–2011);
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
the shaded gray area denotes the
standard deviation
b
200

Reference ET (mm/month)

150

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

translate into greater demand for groundwater, particularly be water-table evaporation, which is also expected to be
during the months of February, May, September and negligible due to the depth of the water table being be-
October when changes in ETref were the greatest and uncer- low that which is influenced directly by soil evaporation.
tainty in the model predictions were the lowest. The exception is the base of Wadi El Natrun depression,
Climate change is also expected to influence the where the saline lakes are recharged by groundwater and
amount of surface recharge associated with the deep per- the water table is within a few meters of the ground
colation of excess irrigation water. Given that ETref is a surface.
key variable in the recharge model implemented in this Figure 8 presents the volume of irrigation groundwater
study, changes in this variable are likely to influence the conserved on a monthly basis for each of the conservation
amount of water available for deep groundwater recharge. scenarios (B and C). This volume was calculated by
The other possible direct impact of climate change would obtaining the difference between the water use for baseline

Fig. 8 Volume of irrigation O pmal 20% R educon

groundwater conserved (million 25,000
V o l u m e o f Ir r i g a ti o n G r o u n d w a te r

m3) between 2012 to 2062 for

C o n s e rv e d (m i l l i o n m 3 )

each scenario
20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
J an F eb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug S ep O ct Nov D ec
700 Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703

Fig. 9 Example hydrograph of

model results for the three
management scenarios for the
area around Kafr Dawoud in the
Pleistocene aquifer at the base of
Wadi El Natrun

from 2012 to 2062. It is evident from this analysis that It is useful to examine the impact of the management sce-
water savings result in both cases. It is striking to note narios on groundwater level drawdown from 2012 to 2062, as
however that by the end of the analysis period to 2062, this is an expression of the impact on both groundwater stor-
the optimal use scenario (C) would have saved an average age and individual users over the management period.
of 72% more water than the 20% reduction (B) policy. This Specifically, changes in rates of drawdown and the point at
has significant implications for the implementation of con- which a drawdown curve flattens out can be used to identify
servation strategies—namely, that optimizing crop selec- when an aquifer reaches equilibrium (Zhou 2009). Fig. 9 pre-
tion to the suitability of the landscape and low CWRs sents a hydrograph for the area around Kafr Dawoud at the
would have a far more important impact compared to sim- base of Wadi El Natrun. This graph represents the most con-
ply achieving an arbitrary demand reduction target. servative scenario for climate change RCP8.5 (i.e., mean plus
Additionally, the optimal use scenario provides greater wa- standard deviation of ensemble). It is evident from this figure
ter conservation in the months when the greatest amount of that under both the baseline and 20% reduction scenarios,
irrigation is needed and when climate change is expected to water levels continuously decline over time, not reaching
exert the greatest influence (i.e., May through September). equilibrium at any point during the simulation period. The
During this period, an optimal-use scenario would decrease hydrograph is for the Pleistocene aquifer layer and shows a
water use by 14% more compared to the 20% reduction steady decline in water levels from approximately 1990 on-
scenario. Even greater water conservation would be ex- ward for the baseline scenario. This, along with the trends
pected if more water conservative crops were to be used observed in the other management scenarios, was common
such as olives, pomegranate, luffa, and other improved throughout the study area. The bottom of the Pleistocene aqui-
varieties (Qadir et al. 2008; Khan et al. 2009). fer at this location is at −52.92 m above sea level (asl) and it is

Fig. 10 Example hydrograph of

model results for the three
management scenarios for the
area on the western slopes of
Wadi El Natrun for the Miocene
aquifer
Hydrogeol J (2018) 26:689–703 701

clear that the trend is toward drying this MODFLOW cell depletion of storage are observed for the baseline and 20%
completely, with water levels dropping to within 85% of the reduction scenarios, indicating that the system is not likely
bottom of the cell by this time. In this case, the curve appears to reach equilibrium under the current groundwater pumping
to approach equilibrium, following a logarithmic curve, be- regime. Instead, significant adaptive or transformative man-
cause of the algorithm employed in the MODFLOW well agement is needed to achieve significant risk reduction. This
package to smoothly transition the cell to a dry state when has implications for the implementation of conservation poli-
heads drop below 50% of the cell’s thickness (Harbaugh cy, namely that efforts targeting specific commodity incen-
2005). Similar trends are observed in the Miocene aquifer, tives using approaches like ‘water footprinting’ would have
however in this aquifer the depth of the cell is at −354 m asl, a far more significant impact compared to simply achieving an
so the exponential trend could be the water level approaching arbitrary demand reduction target.
equilibrium (Fig. 10). The simulation period was not long
enough to determine this definitively. These hydrographs also Acknowledgements This research is dedicated to the communities of
reinforce the finding that the optimal use scenario provides the Wadi El Natrun and we would like to thank them for hosting our re-
searchers with great hospitality and warmth, and for their willingness to
greatest risk reduction with respect to groundwater degrada- share information about their local water resources and livelihoods.
tion. It should be noted that the differences between the opti-
mal use and 20% reduction scenario were well above the Author Contributions We are extremely grateful for the patience,
uncertainty bounds of the groundwater model, which are ±3 time, expertise, and partnership of our Egyptian colleagues regarding
to 12 m of head based on the mean standard error reported in their essential roles in the collection of field and historical data, assistance
with translation, and stewardship of important information on local natu-
Switzman et al. (2015). ral resources. In particular, we would like to acknowledge the contribu-
tions of Mohamed Wahby at Alexandria University, Ezz El Din M.
Farghly, Tina Jaskolski, Mohamed Rashad and Mohamed Wahba at the
Concluding remarks American University in Cairo, Ahmed Abbas, and Dr. Fatma Attia-
Rahaman without whom this research would not have been possible.
The contributions of Dr. Sarah Dickson, Hilary Barber, Jessie Newton
This is the first study the authors are aware of that has and Naomi Goodman from McMaster University, and Dr. Caroline King
attempted to model the impacts of management and climate with the International Institute for Environment and Development
change scenarios in the Wadi El Natrun area. The results dem- (London, UK) are also greatly appreciated.
onstrate that important decisions regarding land use strategies
targeting groundwater conservation need to be considered Funding Information This research was conducted with financial sup-
when planning for groundwater management in the context port provided by the United Nations University – Institute for Water
of climate change. This is particularly the case due to the Environment and Health, and McMaster University (Ontario, Canada).
various kinds of hazards to groundwater present in the area
and the diversity of human uses and ecosystem dependencies
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