Modeling and Analysis: Heuristic Search Methods and Simulation
Modeling and Analysis: Heuristic Search Methods and Simulation
Modeling and Analysis: Heuristic Search Methods and Simulation
1. Explain the basic concepts of simulation and heuristics, and when to use them
2. Understand how search methods are used to solve some decision support models
3. Know the concepts behind and applications of genetic algorithms
4. Explain the differences among algorithms, blind search, and heuristics
5. Understand the concepts and applications of different types of simulation
6. Explain what is meant by systems dynamics, agent-based modeling, Monte Carlo,
and discrete event simulation
7. Describe the key issues of model management
CHAPTER OVERVIEW
In this chapter, we continue to explore some additional concepts related to the model
base, one of the major components of decision support systems (DSS). As pointed out in
the last chapter, we present this material with a note of caution: The purpose of this
chapter is not necessarily for you to master the topics of modeling and analysis. Rather,
the material is geared toward gaining familiarity with the important concepts as they
relate to DSS and their use in decision making. We discuss the structure and application
of some successful time-proven models and methodologies: search methods, heuristic
programming, and simulation. Genetic algorithms mimic the natural process of evolution
to help find solutions to complex problems. The concepts and motivating applications of
these advanced techniques are described in this chapter, which is organized into the
following sections:
CHAPTER OUTLINE
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A. ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES
B. ALGORITHMS
C. BLIND SEARCHING
D. HEURISTIC SEARCHING
Application Case 10.1: Chilean Government Uses
Heuristics to Make Decisions on School Lunch Providers
Section 10.2 Review Questions
10.4 SIMULATION
Application Case 10.2: Improving Maintenance Decision
Making in the Finnish Air Force Through Simulation
Application Case 10.3: Simulating Effects of Hepatitis B
Interventions
A. MAJOR CHARACTERISTICS OF SIMULATION
B. ADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION
C. DISADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION
D. THE METHODOLOGY OF SIMULATION
E. SIMULATION TYPES
1. Probabilistic Simulation
2. Time-Dependent Versus Time-Independent Simulation
F. MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
G. DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION
1. Visual Simulation
Section 10.4 Review Questions
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Application Case 10.5: Agent-Based Simulation Helps
Analyze Spread of a Pandemic Outbreak
Chapter Highlights
Key Terms
Questions for Discussion
Exercises
Teradata University Network (TUN) and Other Hands-On Exercises
End of Chapter Application Case: HP Applies Management
Science Modeling to Optimize Its Supply Chain and Wins a Major
Award
Questions for the Case
References
When covering genetic algorithms in class, it is useful to play the Vector game as
an exercise (the Vector game is described in section 10.3). After covering the concepts
underlying evolutionary theory (reproduction, crossover, mutation, and elitism or survival
of the fittest) and explaining the rules of the game, you can break the students into pairs.
One student of the pair thinks of a six-digit string of 1s and 0s. The second presents four
guesses, which the first evaluates based on the number of correct digits (the fitness
function). The second then selects the best two and applies reproduction, crossover, and
mutation for the next generation of guesses. Have your teams continue this process until
correct solutions are found. You can then compare the number of generations required vs.
what would have been required by chance (an average of 32 given 6 digits). You should
find that the majority of teams find solutions considerably faster than the random-guess
approach.
When covering simulation, you can work through a simple simulation by hand—
for example, modeling waiting times and customers turned away at a barber shop with
two barbers, two more chairs in the waiting area, and any distribution of arrival and
service times you choose. Such a simulation can easily be done using a standard six-sided
die to generate random numbers or by any of several other “low-tech” methods. If you
have access to and are familiar with a simulation package, showing students how this
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simulation is programmed for that package will bring home the lessons of what
simulation is really about.
1. Explain the use of system dynamics as a simulation tool for solving complex
problems.
At Fluor, system dynamics was used to analyze changes in project plans over
time, and the company was able to save $10 million by predicting future impact
of changes to a mining project. Fluor’s use of system dynamics helped the
company understand the dynamics of the different situations that could warrant
changes to project plans. Using the original project plan, industry standards, and
company references as input, their system dynamics model simulated the correct
amounts and timing of other factors like staffing, project progress, and effects on
productivity. The resultant system provided reports on project impacts as well as
helping to perform cause–effect diagnostics.
Through the use of what-if analysis stemming from their system dynamics
modeling approaches, Fluor’s customers were able to perform “what-if” analysis
even before a project was started so the project performance could be gauged. The
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model explained why certain effects were realized based on impact to the project
plan. Fluor’s model was used to analyze and save $10 million in the future impact
of changes to a mining project, as well as saving $10 million when the project
team used the model to redesign the process of reviewing changes so that the
speed of the company’s definition and approval procedures was increased.
4. In your own words, explain the factors that might have triggered the use of system
dynamics to solve change management problems in Fluor Corporation.
5. Pick a geographic region and business domain and list some corresponding
relevant factors that would be used as inputs in building such a system.
Practical limits are the time and computer resources available for the search.
4. How are algorithms and heuristic search methods similar? How are they
different?
The similarity is that they are both search approaches by the above definition (see
Question 1 above).
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The difference is that algorithms always find a solution, if one exists within the
constraints of the method, and that solution can always be proven to be
mathematically optimal. Heuristic search methods may or may not find one. If
one is found, it may or may not be “best” by the stated criteria. Their advantages
over algorithms are that they can be used for some problems that lack applicable
algorithms, and they are often faster.
(This answer uses the term “algorithm” within the context of solving business
problems. The term has a more general meaning: “an explicit numerical step-by-
step procedure that produces a solution to a known problem.” Some algorithms do
not involve optimization, as an algorithm to calculate square roots. Others apply
to areas where no mathematical optimum exists, for example, Google’s search
algorithm mentioned in the text. There is no way to know if the pages it finds are
best for a particular purpose, since people will disagree on what “best” means in
this context. A person searching for “diamonds,” wanting information on
gemstones, might find its answers useful, but the same results would be less
useful to someone in need of information on baseball parks, geometric shapes, or
the suit in a deck of cards.)
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(random and arbitrary changes to solutions string elements), and elitism (the
survival-of-fittest principle). Elitism is implemented through application of a
fitness function, which determines the “best” solutions of a given generation.
Vehicle routing
Bankruptcy prediction
Web searching
Advantages:
The theory is fairly straightforward.
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Time can be compressed a great deal, quickly giving a manager some feel
as to the long-term effects of many policies.
Simulation is descriptive rather than normative. This allows a manager to
pose what-if questions. Managers can use trial-and-error quickly, at little
expense, accurately, and with low risk.
A manager can experiment to determine which decision variables and
which parts of the environment are really important, and with different
alternatives.
An accurate simulation model requires intimate knowledge of the
problem, thus forcing its builder to interact with the manager. This leads to
better understanding of the problem and the potential decisions available.
The model is built from the manager’s perspective.
No generalized understanding is required of the manager; as every
component in the model corresponds to part of the real system.
Simulation can handle a wide variety of problem types, such as inventory
and staffing, as well as higher-level managerial functions, such as long-
range planning.
Simulation can include most real complexities of problems;
simplifications are not needed. For example, it can use real probability
distributions rather than approximate theoretical ones.
Simulation automatically produces many important performance
measures.
Simulation is often the only DSS modeling method that can readily handle
relatively unstructured problems.
Simulation generally can include the real complexities of problems;
simplifications are not necessary.
Simulation automatically produces many important performance
measures.
Simulation is often the only DSS modeling method that can readily handle
relatively unstructured problems.
There are some relatively easy-to-use simulation packages. These include
add-in spreadsheet packages, influence diagram software, Java-based (and
other Web development) packages, and visual interactive simulation
systems.
Disadvantages:
An optimal solution cannot be guaranteed, though relatively good ones are
generally found.
Simulation model construction can be a slow and costly process, although
newer modeling systems are easier to use than ever.
Solutions and inferences from a simulation study are usually not
transferable to other problems because the model incorporates unique
problem factors. It doesn’t generalize.
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Simulation is sometimes so easy to explain to managers that analytic
methods are often overlooked. (This is not a disadvantage of the method,
but a practical caution about using it.)
Simulation software sometimes requires special skills because of its
complexity. Some simulation packages require the model developer to be,
in effect, a programmer.
Visual simulation uses graphical representation to show the situation to the end
user. It does everything a conventional simulation does, which is any technique
for conducting experiments (such as what-if analyses) with a digital computer on
a model of a management system, but does it using visually pleasing and
informative representation.
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2. Describe the features of VIS (i.e., VIM) that make it attractive for decision
makers.
The main attraction of VIS (VIM) is the graphical display. This type of interaction
can help managers learn about the decision-making situation, though some people
respond to graphical displays better than others. Non-technical managers, who
may not understand a situation from data in tables or graphs, can grasp what goes
on in a visual presentation easily.
According to the text, VIS (VIM) “has been used in several operations
management decisions.” Examples given there include plant operations and
waiting lines. The two are related, as waiting line buildup indicates an unbalanced
plant. With VIS, a manager can see work in progress piling up at one stage of a
process—which is far less expensive than watching it pile up in the real factory!
An animated film is (with modern animation techniques; this question is not about
hand-drawn animations of a few decades ago) a computer-generated
representation of a physical system, as is a VIS application. While some animated
films use computers simply to generate final artwork and to fill in the gaps
between key frames created manually, others use complex algorithms to simulate
realistic motion of animated people or animals, calculate trajectories of physical
objects, and determine what happens when two objects interact (e.g., a vehicle
hitting a wall). These are true VIS applications, even if their purpose is not to
support management decision making.
1. What is the key difference between system dynamics simulation and other
simulation types?
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Causal loop diagrams show the relationships between variables in a system. This
is a qualitative step in which the processes, variables, and relationships within the
conceptual model are identified. Causal loop diagrams can be transformed into
mathematical equations that represent the relations among variables.
A link between two elements shows that changes in one element lead to changes
in the other one. The direction of the link shows the direction of influence
between two elements. The sign of each arrow shows the direction of change
between each pair of elements. Feedback processes in the causal loops are the key
components by which a variable re-affects itself over time through a chain of
causal relationships.
JUNAEB utilized the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), local search heuristics,
cluster enumeration, and integer linear programming (ILP) approaches. AHP was
used for determining initial weights of characteristics for each TU in each region.
Search heuristics were used to find homogenously attractive TUs for a region.
Cluster enumeration and ILP were used to minimize differences between cluster
attractiveness.
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Application Case 10.2: Improving Maintenance Decision Making in the Finnish Air
Force through Simulation
Clinical trials are more costly, and there is a time delay in Hepatitis B onset that
complicates analysis via clinical trials.
2. In what ways do the decision and Markov models provide cost-effective ways of
combating the disease?
The Markov model helps measure the economic and health benefits of various
possibilities of screening, treatment, and vaccination, helping decision makers to
select the most cost-effective strategy.
4. Besides health care, in what other domain could such a modeling approach help
reduce cost?
This modeling approach is also used widely in business, for example in solving
operations problems such as supply chain, marketing, production, and scheduling.
There are applications in many other domains, including economics, biology, and
even music composition and baseball analysis.
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1. What are the characteristics of an agent-based simulation model?
2. List the various factors that were fed into the agent-based simulation model
described in the case.
ABMs are better at dealing with heterogeneous behavior, and they allow each
member of the population to be simulated individually. These models enhance the
support for policy decision making.
Agent-based simulations can be used for many applications. ABMs have been
used to simulate flocks of birds, social dynamics of science, traffic jams and
crowd behavior, ant colonies, financial contagion, movements of ancient
societies, housing segregation and other urban issues, and operations management
problems. ABMs are viable for business problems in which many interrelated
factors, irregular data, and high uncertainty and emergent behaviors exist,
interactions between agents are complex, discrete, or nonlinear, and the
population is heterogeneous.
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3. List some of the major advantages of simulation over optimization and vice versa.
Advantages: Simulation can deal with realistic, complex situations (it models
risk), simulation theory is straightforward, time is compressed, there is no need
for restrictive assumptions, and it fits how managers think (models are built from
the manager’s perspective).
Disadvantages: (For complex simulations) slow running time and the fact that the
spreadsheet metaphor does not incorporate facilities for many types of
simulations, so the developer must work around the limitations of the tool to
construct these. In those cases, using a simulation package would be more
straightforward.
Both start off with a problem identification phase, called Intelligence in Simon’s
model. Simon’s design phase corresponds to Steps 2–4 of the simulation model:
constructing it, testing and validating it, and designing the experiment.
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Conducting simulation experiments and evaluating the results would be Simon’s
choice phase. Finally, both have an implementation phase.
Marketing and sales always wanted more—more SKUs, more features, more
configurations— and for good reason. Providing every possible product choice
was considered an obvious way to satisfy more customers and generate more
sales.
Supply chain managers, however, always wanted less. They wanted less to
forecast, less inventory, and less complexity to manage. The drivers (on the
supply chain side) were cost control.
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Open-ended answer and will be dependent upon the students’ online search
results.
A very large organization requires tenacity and skill to bring about major changes
in the processes of a company.
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