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REP Help

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REP Help

© 2017 Logicom E&P

Note:
To change the product logo for your own print manual or
PDF, click "Tools > Manual Designer" and modify the print
manual template.
Contents 5

Table of Contents
Foreword 9

Part I Introduction 10

Part II Prospect/Field evaluation 13


1 Prospect/Fields
...................................................................................................................................
summary 13
..........................................................................................................................................................
Prospect/Fields Menu 17
2 Input parameters
................................................................................................................................... 24
Resource Type .......................................................................................................................................................... 25
Units .......................................................................................................................................................... 26
Prospect Identification
.......................................................................................................................................................... 27
Prospect Description
.......................................................................................................................................................... 43
Gross Rock Volume
.......................................................................................................................................................... 59
Hydrocarbons.......................................................................................................................................................... 72
Sorbed gas .......................................................................................................................................................... 77
Petrophysics.......................................................................................................................................................... 80
Water Saturation
..........................................................................................................................................................
Height Functions 80
Recovery Factors
.......................................................................................................................................................... 84
Variable Dependencies
.......................................................................................................................................................... 85
Prospect Risking
.......................................................................................................................................................... 91
Prospect .........................................................................................................................................................
Risking Schemes 92
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 1 94
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 2 96
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 3 99
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 4 101
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 5 103
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 6 105
Prospect Risking - Scheme 7 (Using an XL Spreadsheet to Enter
Chances of Success) ......................................................................................................................................... 107
Prospect Risking - Scheme 8
......................................................................................................................................... 108
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 9 109
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 10 111
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 11 112
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 12 113
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 21 114
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 22/24 116
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 23 116
Prospect Risking .........................................................................................................................................
- Scheme 25 118
Risk table
......................................................................................................................................................... 119
Economic Cut-offs
.......................................................................................................................................................... 122
Input Data Summary
.......................................................................................................................................................... 124
Prospect Models
.......................................................................................................................................................... 127
Prospect Layers
.......................................................................................................................................................... 133
3 Entering probability
...................................................................................................................................
distributions 136
Input Variables
.......................................................................................................................................................... 150
Gross Rock
.........................................................................................................................................................
Volume 151
Shape Factor
......................................................................................................................................................... 152
Degree of
.........................................................................................................................................................
Fill 153
Area, Thickness
.........................................................................................................................................................
and Shape Factor 154

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6 REP Help

Area Uncertainty
......................................................................................................................................................... 155
Porosity......................................................................................................................................................... 156
Water Saturation
.........................................................................................................................................................
(Sw) 156
Oil Formation
.........................................................................................................................................................
Volume Factor 157
Gas Expansion
.........................................................................................................................................................
Factor 158
Inerts ......................................................................................................................................................... 158
Copying Distributions to Other Models or Prospects
.......................................................................................................................................................... 158
...................................................................................................................................
4 Understanding the results 161
................................................................................................................................... 163
5 Calculations
Iteration Control
.......................................................................................................................................................... 163
Data points .......................................................................................................................................................... 165
Deterministic
..........................................................................................................................................................
Calculations 171
6 Tools ................................................................................................................................... 173
.......................................................................................................................................................... 173
Sensitivity plots
Reality plots.......................................................................................................................................................... 175
Production profiles
.......................................................................................................................................................... 177
Realizations.......................................................................................................................................................... 184
DHI risking .......................................................................................................................................................... 187
Input data plots
.......................................................................................................................................................... 188
Evolution and..........................................................................................................................................................
analysis 192
7 Other data ................................................................................................................................... 194
.......................................................................................................................................................... 194
Associated files
Deterministic
..........................................................................................................................................................
estimates 195
8 Prospect evaluations
................................................................................................................................... 196
9 Resource plays
................................................................................................................................... 200

Part III Consolidations 201


...................................................................................................................................
1 Consolidation summary 201
Consolidation
..........................................................................................................................................................
Menu 203
2 Input parameters
................................................................................................................................... 208
Consolidation
..........................................................................................................................................................
identification 209
Input files .......................................................................................................................................................... 213
Consolidation
..........................................................................................................................................................
type 218
Common chance
.......................................................................................................................................................... 220
Dependent variables
.......................................................................................................................................................... 226
Dependent models
.......................................................................................................................................................... 228
Economic cut-offs
.......................................................................................................................................................... 230
3 Understanding
...................................................................................................................................
the results 232
4 Calculations
................................................................................................................................... 233
5 Tools ................................................................................................................................... 243
Input data plots
.......................................................................................................................................................... 243
Reality plots.......................................................................................................................................................... 246
ECO sensitivity
.......................................................................................................................................................... 247
Decision trees
.......................................................................................................................................................... 252
Consolidation..........................................................................................................................................................
hierarchy 257
Production profiles
.......................................................................................................................................................... 259

Part IV Projects 261

© 2017 Logicom E&P


Contents 7

Part V Map Digitization 266


1 Map Digitization-
...................................................................................................................................
New Method 277

Part VI Database 285


1 Creating new
...................................................................................................................................
database 299

Part VII Tools 303


1 Calculator ................................................................................................................................... 303
2 PDF fit ................................................................................................................................... 320
3 Fluid Correlations
................................................................................................................................... 326
4 Unit Conversions
................................................................................................................................... 337

Part VIII Set-up and Defaults 339


1 User Options
................................................................................................................................... 339
2 Installation...................................................................................................................................
Options 346
3 Custom Help
...................................................................................................................................
Files 351
4 Licencing ................................................................................................................................... 352

Part IX Version notes 356

Part X Resources 372


1 Printing ................................................................................................................................... 372
2 Installation...................................................................................................................................
(for Windows) 376
3 Exporting Data
...................................................................................................................................
to XL Spreadsheets 377
4 Data Export
...................................................................................................................................
Template 383
5 File Database Administration
................................................................................................................................... 385
6 Units ................................................................................................................................... 388
7 UTM conversion
................................................................................................................................... 392
8 Glossary of...................................................................................................................................
Terms 394
9 Data Dictionary
................................................................................................................................... 396

Index 409

© 2017 Logicom E&P


Foreword 9

Foreword

This is just another title page


placed between table of contents
and topics

© 2017 Logicom E&P


10 REP Help

1 Introduction

Welcome to REP, the resource evaluation program. For more information on what can be accomplished using
REP, read our section below on 'What REP Does'.

The two major components to REP are the Prospect/Field and Consolidations modules. If you want help
with running either module, refer to 'Prospect/Fields Summary' or 'Consolidations Summary' sections, or
browse for a specific topic in the contents.

For information on Maps and Set-up issues, browse beneath the relevant headings in Contents.

The Tools menu item contains some useful facilities:

Calculator allows you to define your own probability distributions and manipulate them with you own
equations.

PDF fit is a way to fit normal, log-normal and beta distributions to entered data

Fluid correlations are a way to estimate formation volume factors for oil and gas using standard
correlations.

In Unit conversions you can convert values from one unit to another.

For notes on program changes by version see Version notes.

What REP Does

Below is a very brief overview of what the REP program does.

Prospect Calculations
The basic calculation in REP determines the in-place and recoverable reserves in a field or prospect.

The equation is: Reserves = GRV x Porosity x Net-to-Gross x (1-Sw) x FVF x RF, where:

GRV is the gross reservoir volume;

Porosity is the field average porosity;

Net-to-gross is the field average net-to-gross ratio;

Sw is the field average water saturation - (1-Sw) is the hydrocarbon saturation;

FVF is the reciprocal oil or gas formation volume factor (FVF for oil is 1/Bo, for gas it is the gas
expansion factor);

RF is the recovery factor.

In the reservoir, there may be oil, gas, condensate or combinations of these and each hydrocarbon type
(phase) is calculated separately.

Oil reservoirs may have associated gas. Gas reservoirs may have associated NGL's and may also contain inert
elements such as nitrogen, carbon dioxide or hydrogen sulphide. Condensate reservoirs always produce liquids

© 2017 Logicom E&P


Introduction 11

and may also have inerts. It is, therefore, clear that the situation can become complicated.

It is usually the case that the biggest uncertainty in reserves comes from the GRV, and there are a number of
ways you can enter GRV into REP, incorporating maps, spill points, fluid contacts, etc.

If you solve the equation with single values for all the parameters, you get a single answer for reserves. This is
a "deterministic" calculation. The power of REP is that, rather than using single values (though this is an
option) you enter all the parameters as probability distributions. A probability distribution describes your
uncertainty in the value of the parameter. For example, you may think that the field average porosity is 14%,
but there is no possibility at all that you could say that it is exactly 14%, or any other value. So you can say
that it is most likely around 14%, but could range from 11 - 18%. The probability distribution quantifies this
sort of statement.

Using probability distributions gives a result that is itself a probability distribution. Using this you can make
statements such as "The mean reserve is 246mmstb; and I am 90% confident that the reserve is greater than
110mmstb, and there is a 10% chance that the reserve is greater than 490mmstb."

If you have a prospect which has not been drilled, then there is a possibility that hydrocarbons will not be
present. The chance that they are is called the "Chance of Success" and an important part of the REP process
is to estimate this chance.

See 'Prospect/Fields Summary' for more information on the Prospect/Field module.

Consolidations
The reserves distribution for a single field or prospect is important and interesting. Based on it, you decide
whether to drill a well, or another well. It will also be the basis of the decision to develop a discovery or
whether to bid for a licence.

However, it is frequently the case that there is more than one prospect or more than one discovered reservoir
to be considered in the decision. Often, the prospects are linked, in the sense that if one of them contains
hydrocarbons the chance that the others also contain hydrocarbons is increased - and vice-versa.

So REP allows you to "add up" the various prospects, and presents a reserve distribution reflecting the likely
outcomes of several fields or prospects. This is consolidation, and it is an extremely important part of the
reserve evaluation process. It is not a straightforward addition, because (a) the things being added up are
probability distributions and (b) if one or more of the things being added up has a chance of success of less
than 100% - and additionally that COS is linked to other chances of success - the process is not
straightforward.

See 'Consolidations Summary' for more information on the Consolidation module.

Maps
REP allows you to digitise maps. It is a quick and simple module and does not aim to replace the very
sophisticated mapping in specialist packages. You need a scanned image of the map; the digitisation is done
on-screen, using the mouse. The result of the digitisation is a set of contour/area pairs, which are used by the
prospect calculations.

See 'Map Digitisation' for more information.

Setup
There are a set of environment variables and defaults which control the way REP works and how the results
are presented. One is the way you (or, at any rate, your company) prefers to risk prospects.

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12 REP Help

See 'Set-up and Defaults' for more information on environment variables and defaults.

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Prospect/Field evaluation 13

2 Prospect/Field evaluation

The Prospect/Field Evaluation module uses probability distributions for each of the input variables in the
standard volumetric equation to estimate the possible range of reserves (or more properly hydrocarbon
resource) of a potential or discovered hydrocarbon volume. Where the resource is not yet discovered, the
chance of success is also estimated.

The following sections will provide you with the solutions to any problems you are experiencing in operating
the Prospect/Field Evaluation module.

The Prospect/Field summary screen

Input parameters

Entering probability distributions

Understanding the results

Calculations

Tools

2.1 Prospect/Fields summary


The prospect summary screen controls all of the prospect entry, calculation and results tasks.

On the left of the window there is a list of all the prospects currently active. Since each prospect or field can
have multiple segments*, each segment multiple models and each model multiple layers, there is a "tree"
hierarchy. You can click on any branch to make this prospect/segment/model/layer active. You can also
remove prospects from the list by right clicking on the prospect and selecting [Remove].

[*Note: depending on program version, segments may not be activated.]

To the right is a summary of the active prospect/segment/model/layer is shown. See Results Summary, below.

At the top of the window is the menu bar from which all actions are initiated. Common actions also have
buttons in the tool bar. See 'Prospect/Fields Menu' for more information.

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14 REP Help

Project

Project Denotes the project currently selected

Prospect
summary

Results units Select desired unit for results output

H/c Toggle between hydrocarbon types

More stats.. Click for more detail on the results distribution

Graph.. Show summary graph in new window

1ary/2ary.. Shows the split between primary (matrix) and secondary (fracture) volumes in the case of a dual porosity
system.

Close Close selected prospect summary

Results Summary
When you first read a file, the summary results are taken from the file. When you change a parameter and run
a calculation, the screen is updated with the new results.

If you have more than one prospect active, you can click the prospect (or layer/model/segment) to see its
particular results.

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Prospect/Field evaluation 15

The summary shows the ID of the Prospect (and the current segment*, model and layer) at the top left of the
screen. Below are shown the defined hydrocarbons, and the unrisked mean quantity of total recoverable oil
(liquids) and gas. These can be either whole trap or net (company share), depending on the entry in the
Installation Options.

[*Note: depending on program version, segments may not be activated.]

Then comes a summary of the chances of success - "Play", "Prospect specific", "Geological Chance of Success
(GPOS)" and "Economic Chance of Success (EPOS)". If there is no economic cut-off defined, the GPOS is equal
to the EPOS.

Below the chances, the key numbers are shown. The P90, P50, P10 and Mean figures, both whole trap and
net, refer to the success case - i.e. the outcome if hydrocarbons are discovered. The risked mean is the mean
multiplied by the technical chance of success (GPOS).

Where there is no economic cut-off, and GPOS = EPOS, all these numbers are shown in black.

Where there is an economic cut-off, there are two possible success cases: technical and economic. You can
look at either and switch between the two by toggling the [<>] button. The technical success case numbers
are shown in red, and the economic success case is shown in green.

Note that the economic success case mean is always equal to or higher than the technical success case mean,
and the displayed risked mean is always the technical success mean multiplied by the GPOS, i.e. the risked
mean does not change.

The mean is either the arithmetic mean or Swanson's mean (in which case it is shown as "Mean Mz"). You can
choose which to show in the Installation Options. Because of the way REP clips its skewed distributions there is
normally not much difference between the arithmetic mean and Swanson's number.

To the right of the summary is the results graph. This shows the probability against the reserve. See
'Understanding the Results' for a discussion of what the curves are.

Below the summary numbers are some buttons:

[More stats..] gives slightly more detail on the results distribution (including both the arithmetic mean
and Swanson's mean)

[Graph..] shows the summary graph in a standalone window. There are three reasons you might wish to
do this.

1. You can make it big, so that even blind management can see it.

2. You can paste it onto the Windows pasteboard (using <CTRL+ALT+PRNTScreen>) and then
copy it from there into any Windows program, or print it using the window print option.

3. You can save the data in the graph as a comma-delimited file, and read the data into XL. Some
people find this useful. Use the window File | Save as option.

[1ary/2ary..]

[Close] closes the selected summary.

To the right of the summary screen, below the graph, are four radio buttons, which enable you to change the
output units, and five check-boxes which enable you to toggle between hydrocarbon types.

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16 REP Help

Here is a description of the toolbar icons

Open consolidation dialog (or bring it to the front if it's already open)

Click to start a new prospect

Click to open an existing prospect

Click to save prospects

Opens the database module.

Click to toggle evaluations

Click to print summary

Click to preview summary

Click to open ID dialog

Click to open Description dialog

Click to open GRV dialog

Click to open Hydrocarbons dialog

Click to open the sorbed gas dialog (CBM and shale gas prospects only).

Click to open Petrophysics dialog

Click to open risking dialog

Click to open Models dialog

Click to open Economic Criteria dialog

Click to open Summary dialog

Click to calculate

Show any current information or error messages

Click to open Help

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Prospect/Field evaluation 17

2.1.1 Prospect/Fields Menu

The menu toolbar above the Prospect/Fields summary screen allows you to navigate through the
module.

The Prospect/Field menu has these main options:

• File: Opening, saving, printing, etc.

• Parameters: Input of all parameters required for a prospect calculation.

• Calculate: Full calculation, single point calculate, set calculation parameters (iterations).

• Results: Choose which hydrocarbon type (recoverable oil, gas-in-place, etc.) to view.

• Tools: Diagnostic plots, sensitivities, production profiles, etc.

• Help: Access to the help pages.

File

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18 REP Help

New | Prospect
This starts a new prospect. To enter parameters, use Parameters | All, as outlined below, in Parameters.

Starting a new prospect can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

New | Evaluation

This opens the New Evaluation dialog. See 'Prospect Evaluation' for more information.

To reveal or hide evaluations, click on the icon.

Open

This opens an existing prospect. The standard Windows "File open" dialogue is displayed. You can
choose one or more prospect files to open, using the standard Windows procedure.

Opening an existing prospect can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Project

This allows you to group together prospects and consolidations. See 'Projects' for more information.

Recent Files

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Prospect/Field evaluation 19

In the sub-menu the most recent prospect files (up to 20) are shown. Click on one of them to load the
file. You can load all of the recent files at once by choosing "Load all recent". You can also clear the
recent files list by choosing "Clear all recent".

Save

This saves the prospect files. You can chose to save just the selected prospect or all open prospects. If
you have not given the prospect a filename you will be prompted for it.

[Note: It is recommended (but not necessary) that you first do a calculation, so that the stored results
data reflect the input data.]

Saving prospects can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Save As

This saves the data to a new file and you are prompted for the new file name.

Export

This has several sub-options:

"XL prospect file" writes prospect data into an XL spreadsheet or via a Macro file. See 'Exporting
Data to XL Spreadsheets' and 'Data Export Templates'.

"XL summary file" writes prospect summary into an XL spreadsheet, possibly a prospect
inventory. See 'Exporting Data to XL Spreadsheets' and 'Data Export Templates'.

"Copy to clipboard" copies key numbers for the current hydrocarbon phase to the Windows
clipboard. From there they can be pasted into Word, XL, etc. for reformatting and presentation.

Other Data

Associated Files

It can be useful to list non-REP files (spreadsheets, reports, maps etc.) that are related to a
prospect as a simple document list. See 'Associated Files' for more information.

Deterministic estimates: 3rd party results: click here for details

Print/Print Preview/Windows Metafile

These options produce the hard copy output. "Print" sends it straight to the printer. Printing is via the
Windows system, so any printer accessible to your computer can be used. "Print preview" draws it on
the screen, you can send it to the printer from the preview window. "Windows metafile" writes the
printed sheets to .emf (metafile format) or .bmp (bitmap format). Both are readily imported into other

© 2017 Logicom E&P


20 REP Help

windows programs, including word, XL etc. See 'Printing' for more information.

[Note: With all the printing options, you can choose to print the "summary pages" (the key input and
results, by hydrocarbon type), the "full" output (about 5 pages, depending on the hydrocarbons
present) or a "selection" of pages.]

Printing a hard copy output can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Loading a print preview can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Print Options

Select "All options" and a screen will appear in which you can choose to make your output in CGM
format. CGM is a common graphics format which can be read by many oil-field software packages,
including the ZEH plotting system. You can also choose not to show economic criteria on output
sheets. Economic criteria is often rather sensitive data, so this is a useful option if you are giving your
results to partners.

Printer/Page Set-up

Select this to reveal a standard printer dialogue box in which you can set page size and other printing
parameters. Do not trouble to set the page to landscape.

Consolidate current files.

All the current prospect entries are loaded into a new consolidation. The consolidation is run and the
results shown in the consolidation summary screen.

Parameters

From the parameters menu all the input data can be entered and edited:

All

If you are starting from new, this option runs through, step-by-step, all the other parameter menu
items allowing you to enter the data in a structured manner.

Resource Type

A simple dialog in which the relevant resource type can be chosen. See 'Resource Type' for more
information.

Set Units

A simple dialog in which you can chose the default unit for input: oil field or metric. See 'Unit Type' for

© 2017 Logicom E&P


Prospect/Field evaluation 21

more information.

Note: You can override the default for any input parameter.

Identification

This dialog allows you to enter the prospect name, location, setting and other general descriptive data.
See 'Prospect Identification' for more information.

The Identification dialog can also be opened by clicking on the icon.

Geological Description

This dialog allows the user to summarise the key geological features of the prospect. See 'Prospect
Description' for more information.

The Geological Description dialog can also be opened by clicking on the icon.

Gross Rock Volume

Here, all the parameters controlling the GRV model and associated data can be entered. See 'Gross
Rock Volume' for more information.

The Gross Rock Volume dialog can also be opened by clicking on the icon.

Hydrocarbons

A dialog in which the hydrocarbons that either are, or you hope are, present in the prospect can be
selected. See 'Hydrocarbons' for more information.

The Hydrocarbons dialog can also be opened by clicking on the icon.

NTG/Porosity/Sw

This is a dialog in which the reservoir petrophysical parameters are entered as probability distributions.
See 'Petrophysics' for more information.

The NTG/Porosity/SW dialog can also be opened by clicking on the icon.

Recovery Factors

This is a dialog in which the expected relationship between recoverable and in-place volumes are
entered as probability distributions. See 'Recovery Factors' for more information.

Dependencies

Here, relationships (if any) between the input variables can be described. See 'Variable Dependencies'
for more information.

© 2017 Logicom E&P


22 REP Help

Risking

Use this dialog to evaluate the chances of success. See 'Prospect Risking' for more information.

The Risking dialog can also be opened by clicking on the icon.

Risk table

This option produces a summary of all the risks in all the loaded prospects. See Risk table.

Economic Cut-offs

This dialog is used to enter the minimum values of oil and/or gas for the prospect to be economic.
See 'Economic Cut-offs' for more information.

The Economic Cutoffs dialog can also be opened by clicking on the icon.

Input Data Summary

This is a useful facility which allows you to view and edit all the input parameters from one place. See
'Input Data Summary' for more information.

The Input Data Summary can also be opened by clicking on the icon.

Models

Use this facility to add (or remove) alternative models for your prospect and their respective
probabilities. See 'Prospect Models' for more information.

The Models facility can also be opened by clicking on the

Layers

This dialog allows you to enter reservoir layers with separate properties. See 'Prospect Layers' for more
information.

Calculate

Calculate

This facility runs a calculation on the current prospect file or you can chose to "Calculate All" open
prospects.

The Calculate facility can also be run by clicking on the icon.

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Prospect/Field evaluation 23

Deterministic

This option enables you to run a "single point" or deterministic calculation, i.e. solve the volumetrics
equation with a single value for each parameter. See 'Deterministic Calculations' for more information.

Options

Here are some further options controlling the way calculation is made See 'Calculation options' for
more information.

Data Points

See 'Data Points' for more information.

Results

The menu options are a list of all the relevant hydrocarbon types produced or present in the current
prospect. Choose one of them to see the results for that hydrocarbon type in the summary window.
You can also show the area/depth plot (if there is one), GRV and in-place volumes. See 'Understanding
the Results' for more information.

Tools

From the tools menu you can produce some useful sensitivity and QC plots:

Sensitivity Plot (Spider)

This is a spider graph that shows the influence on the results of all the input parameters. See
'Sensitivity Plots' for more information.

Relative Uncertainty Plot (Tornado)

This is a simpler version of the sensitivity plot where all the parameters are ranked in terms of the
overall influence they have on the result. See 'Sensitivity Plots' for more information.

Reality Plot

This is a useful QC. See 'Reality Plots' for more information.

Production Forecast

This allows you to create a 'quick and dirty' production forecast based on one or more reserve levels
and quickly export it to XL. See 'Production Profiles' for more information.

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24 REP Help

ECO Sensitivity

This allows you to see the influence of any economic cut-offs on the results. See 'Economic Cut-offs'
for more information.

Realizations

This allows you to create scenarios, which correspond to each probability case. See 'Realizations' for
more information.

Input Variable Plots

This tool allows you to compare variable probability distributions in a group of prospects. See
'Prospect Input Data Plots' for more information.

Evolution and Analysis

Help

Help refers to the general REP help. Custom Help are help pages written for a specific site, and not
available to other REP users.

REP Help can also be accessed by clicking on the icon.

2.2 Input parameters


There are a number of input parameter categories. By clicking on Parameters | All in the menu, REP will step
through all the parameters required for a complete prospect/field evaluation.

Other menu options take you to the relevant input section.

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Prospect/Field evaluation 25

2.2.1 Resource Type

In this dialog choose the appropriate resource type from the available options.

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26 REP Help

Depending on your program version, some options may not be available, and these are greyed out.

See also resource plays.

2.2.2 Units

In this dialog choose the basic units system unit in which you would like the prospect data to be entered.

You may choose either metric or oil-field units. You have the choice to have one set for normal parameter
entry and another for area/depth entry (i.e. the map).

This works only to set defaults. You can change the unit of every parameter individually, when you enter it.
And having entered the data, you can change its unit converting or not the values.

The units for results reporting are separate and can be changed at any time: you do this by clicking the
required unit on the prospect summary screen.

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Prospect/Field evaluation 27

2.2.3 Prospect Identification

Prospect Identification is general data about the prospect - what it's called, where it is and so on.

The data are entered into a single dialog with a number of tabs. Not everything needs to be filled in (see
below) but the more you do fill in (especially comments) the more useful your analysis will be to colleagues
and those who come after.

The tabs are:

ID: General

Licence

Geological setting

Geographical setting

Maps

Audit

Approvals

Text description

Note: 1. Entries with a light blue background must be filled in.

2. Values may appear in three different colours: red is the program default, blue is a value calculated
from elsewhere in the prospect dataset and green is a value that has been entered manually.

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28 REP Help

ID: General

Reserves class is the reserves classification to which the prospect reserves are assigned.

[Note: The classes can be defined to suit your particular scheme. Email us for instructions.]

Reference is a free text entry for your convenience. It is not used by the program. It is shown at the bottom of
printed pages.

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Prospect/Field evaluation 29

Pre/post-drill and Evaluation refer to the current evaluation stage. See our section on 'Prospect Evaluation' for
more information.

Name

Prospect name Enter the name of the prospect

Reservoir name Enter the reservoir name

Segment Enter the prospect segment name, if you are analysing just a bit of the prospect (e.g. a particular fault
block).

Location

Country Enter the country in which this prospect lies.

[Note: Recent and continuing political excitements mean that our list (which is the United
Nations ISO standard) is generally out of date. It can be easily changed and if you need
to do so please contact us for information on how it can be done.]

Set as default Click to enter default country (as defined in Set up and defaults)

Region/State Enter the region, state or other sub-division of the country.

Block Enter the block in which this prospect lies

Classification all these are drop-down options

Status The prospect status can be Concept, Lead, Prospect or Discovery

Prospect class Enter the classification for this prospect - see list

Reserves class Enter the reserves classification for the prospect/discovery. The list is based on the PRMS classification.

Drilling status Enter the drilling status

Pre/post-drill Is this pre- or post-drill?

Evaluation Enter the name of the current evaluation. See evaluations

Admin

Group/unit Enter the business unit/user group/client. The arrow to the right copies the entry from your user set-up
entry.

Set as default You can set the above entry as your user default, by clicking this button

Reference Enter a reference number/string

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Licence

Licence

Licence/concession
Enter the licence in which the field/prospect lies
name

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Production interest Enter your company's percentage interest in any revenue from prospect. It is used by the
% program to convert gross (whole trap) volumes to net (company share) volumes.

Exploration interest Enter your company's percentage working interest - the proportion of the costs that your company
% will pay. Note that this is often (if not usually) higher than the production interest.

Block share % Enter the share of the accumulation in the given block

Operator

Operator Enter the operator of the licence

Click to enter default company name - this will be the name of the company entered in "Setup and
Set co.
defaults", and is presumably your own company's name.

Geological Setting

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Play

Basin Enter the geological basin in which the prospect lies

Play Enter the play of which the prospect forms a part

Details .. see also the retrieve button below

Depth datum Select from which level the prospect depth should be measured

m <> ft Click to change units of depth

Datum depth Enter the height of the datum above mean sea level/ground level

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Depth to crest Enter the approximate depth to the primary target

Depth to base Enter the approximate depth to the base of the reservoir column
column

Column height Enter the approximate column height

Reservoir Enter the approximate gross reservoir thickness


thickness

Trap area Enter the approximate trap area

km2 <> acre Click to change units of area

Retrieve Most of the parameters above will be entered later as prospect parameters that are used in the
calculation. This retrieve button gets them from entered data. So rather than enter all the data above
before you'vce done the main analysis, leave them blank, do the analysis, come back here and click
retrieve. Voila!

Geographical Setting

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Onshore/ Circumstance of prospect


Offshore

Terrain Onshore prospects - choose the environment

Water depth Offshore prospects - the water depth

Nearest facility The nearest processing station (where the hydrocarbons are delivered) ...

Distance .. and how far away it is.

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Location This can refer to either the exploration well, or be a more general indication. Entry can be either by
UTM's or lat/longs. If you specify both the UTM central meridian and the Lat/long spheroid a
conversion can be made between the two.

Meridian The zero point of the UTM easting

Southern Check if the location is south of the equator


hemisphere

Spheroid The spheroid used for the lat/long coordinates. WGS 1984 is the standard for GPS, but many exist,
and most are in the drop-down list.

North/East The UTM coordinates

N/S The latitude in format dd mm ss.ssN (or S)

E/W The longitude in format dd mm ss.ssE (or W)

GIS ID This is an identifier to link the prospect file to a GIS entity. It should be supplied by your GIS
administrator.

Maps and Other Image Files

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On the printed output sheets, space is left for various maps. There are two ways to fill in these boxes: skilful
use of a photocopier, or specifying jpeg, bitmap files or other image files, if you have them somewhere on
your system.

You can have up to twenty maps or images. The first two in the list are shown side by side near the top of the
Summary Page of the printout. If you do a Full Page printout, the first map is also shown on the front page,
and all the other maps are shown on succeeding pages, one to a page. The images can be rearranged using
the [up] and [down] buttons.

In the dialog, click the [Add] button to add an image file. Once the desired file is found, click [OK] and it is
added to the list on the left. To edit an existing entry, click on it in the list.

Each map or image may be given a title. There is a drop-down list of common titles ("Seismic section",
"Location map" etc.) but you can enter anything you like ("Compromising picture of CEO", for example).

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For an image, check the box 'Preserve aspect ratio" to ensure that the image will not be unequally squeezed to
fit the space on the printed sheets.

You can also ask to rotate the image on the page.

Add Add a new map

Delete Delete the current map

Title Select a title for the map. Use the drop-down list, or just type it in.

Folder Enter source folder or browse

File Enter source file or browse

Browse Browse for a new map file

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View map - it will open in whatever program with which its file trailer is associated (a Windows
View
issue)

Preserve aspect
Preserve aspect ratio of the map - otherwise it will stretch/squeeze to fit the print area
ratio

Rotate Rotate the map when printing it (clockwise).

Up Move the current map up in the list

Down Move the current map down in the list

Audit

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This tab allows you to enter a short text as an audit trail.

Click [Add] to add a new line to the audit. The program will fill in the date and your name. Under Event, type
in what you did.

Entries can be deleted and sorted (by date).

Table

Date Enter the date

By Enter who it was who did it

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Event Enter what happened on this date

Add Click to add new entry

Delete Click to delete selected entry

Sort Sort entries by date

Approvals

In this tab you can enter details of an appraisal / approval process.

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The titles are set by default in the site set-up: see Installation options: approvals list.

Table

Title The title of the person at this approval level

Name The actual name of the approver

Event The approval date

Today Click set today's date (click the line where you want to insert the date - there must already be a name)

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Edit titles The titles are set in the installation set-up, and are not editable - unless you click this button.

Text description
Any textural description of the prospect.

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Enter a [Note: You can cut and paste the text into or from any Windows program that supports cut
text and paste. To put data into the clipboard, highlight the text and press Ctrl-c (the "Ctrl" and "c"
descripti keys together) on the keyboard. To paste clipboard data into REP (or another Windows
on of program) press Ctrl-v.]
the
prospect

Paste An easy alternative to Ctrl-v

2.2.4 Prospect Description

Prospect Description consists of a single dialog with a number of tabs in which you can describe the geological
make-up of the prospect. Each tab corresponds to a different element of the prospect.

The purpose of the screen is to provide a descriptive basis for the 'Prospect Risking'. None of the entries are
used quantitatively in the calculations.

Not everybody enters the data in this section, but it is strongly recommended that you do. It helps with the
risking, allows a more thorough database for future reference, and is useful for colleagues both present and
future. It's quite quick, and mostly it's choices from a drop-down lists.

The tabs are:

Trap

Reservoir

Seal

Source

Trap

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Trap information can be entered manually or you can click on the [>] button and choose from the lists
provided:

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Age

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Type

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Geometry

Age Enter the trap age

Type Enter the trap type

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Geometry Enter the trap geometry

Remarks Enter any comments regarding the trap

Reservoir

Reservoir information can be entered manually or for some fields you can click on the [>] button and choose
from the lists provided:

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Age

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Dep. Setting

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Lithology

Porosity Type

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Permeability

Aquifer Support

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Reservoir Enter the reservoir name


name

Age Enter the reservoir age

Dep. setting Enter the reservoir depositional setting

Lithology Enter the reservoir lithology

Porosity type Enter the reservoir porosity type

Permeability Enter the reservoir permeability

Aquifer Enter the reservoir aquifer support


support

Temperature Enter the estimated reservoir temperature

Pressure Enter the estimated reservoir pressure

Oil API Enter the estimated oil gravity

Remarks Enter any comments regarding the reservoir

Seal

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Seal information can be entered manually or for some fields you can click on the [>] button and choose from
the lists provided:

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Age

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Dep. Setting

Lithology

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Seal name Enter the seal name

Age Enter the seal age

Dep. setting Enter the seal depositional setting

Lithology Enter the seal lithology

Remarks Enter any comments regarding the seal

Source

Source information can be entered manually or for some fields you can click on the [>] button and choose
from the lists provided:

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Generation Age

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Migration Age

Source name Enter the source name

Generation Enter the generation age


age

Migration age Enter the migration age

Remarks Enter any comments regarding the source

2.2.5 Gross Rock Volume

There are three methods for entering gross rock volume (GRV): as a single distribution, as the product of
area, thickness and shape factor and from area/depth (contour maps) (you can also enter GRV/depth data or
net pay maps).

A single distribution is appropriate where the numbers are coming from - or are based on - the results of a
mapping or geological modelling program. Area/thickness/shape should be used either when the thickness of
the reservoir is small compared to the closure (and the structure is fairly flat) or when no detailed structural
data are available - normally very early on in the prospect appraisal process.

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If the data are available it is best to use the area/depth entry, since this allows proper appreciation of the
errors in the mapping process.

A GRV multiplier known as the stacking factor can be applied.

See 'Entering Probability Distributions' for help with probability distributions.

GRV Entry

GRV Entry Check the GRV model you wish to use

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If you choose Area/depth then you need to specify what configuration you want

Define both top and


This is especially useful for stratigraphic traps.
base surface

Define a top surface


and reservoir A common case where the base of the reservoir conforms with the top of the reservoir.
thickness

Define a top surface Used where the thickness of the reservoir is always greater than the structural closure (i.e the
only thickness is greater than any anticipated column height)

Define a net pay


Here the contours on the map represent net pay thickness.
thickness

Hydrocarbon column

Hydrocarbon column Given a structure, REP needs to know how much of it is filled with hydrocarbon. You can
define the base of the hydrocarbon column either as a column height (extent from the crest
of the structure) or as a depth - either a spill point or a fluid (hydrocarbon/water) contact.

In terms of the calculation there is no difference between a spill point and a hydrocarbon
contact unless you are going to use surface shifts, in which case the difference is important.
Spill points shifts with the top surface, so if you have a surface shift and no base reservoir
there will be no net change in reserve. But contacts are assumed fixed in depth, so there will
be a change as you shift the top surface.

In the case of column height, you can "Allow clip". Normally if you set a clipping limit on a
variable, and in a calculation iteration that limit is exceeded, the iteration is discarded.
Allowing the clip sets the column height value to its clipping value and allows the iteration to
proceed. This of course will give you more hydrocarbon.

Another way to achieve a similar end is to define both a spill point and a column height. In
this case REP will randomly choose values for both (in the usual way) and choose the
minimum of the two. Degree of fill is not used.

Porosity Model

Porosity Model In a single porosity model there is one porosity, net-to-gross, Sw and recovery factor - this is
the usual case.

In a dual porosity model you have two sets of porosity, net-to-gross, Sw and recovery factor.
Commonly this is used for fractured reservoirs,(and the secondary porosity is called Por (fr),
similarly Sw (fr) etc.); but the "secondary" porosity could just be another facies.

In the case of fractured reservoirs, it is usual to put the fracture recovery factor to 100%, and
the Sw to 0%. This is defensible, especially in a REP context. That leaves porosity and NTG:
you have to manipulate these to get the volumes about right. Some people put
porosity=100% and adjust the NTG so that it approximates a fracture density that they can
derive from image logs. Others do the opposite - they put NTG=100% and enter an overall
fracture porosity. It doesn't really matter, as long as the numbers are reasonable.

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Note that fractured reservoirs are tough to analyse at the best of times, and REP is not an
expert in the field. One of our early users suggested that the output sheets for fractured
reservoirs should have the banner "Sell!" across them. Perhaps he was right.

Stacking Factor

Stacking factor Check to apply stacking factor. This is a simple gross rock volume multiplier and can be useful
when you are dealing with plays with multiple pays. You enter the stacking factor as a
variable in the normal way. Effectively you are saying: I have modelled a sand, and I have 6 or
20 or 47 just like it.

Single Distribution

GRV is entered as one distribution. The units are acre-ft or mmcm (km2-m).

The problem with using a single distribution is that there is no depth information, so you cannot model
uncertainty in hydrocarbon contacts, thief zones, gas columns etc.. These are all wrapped up in the single
distribution. This is a pity, since GRV is usually the single biggest source of uncertainty.

Area/Thickness/Shape Factor
GRV is the product of three distributions: area, thickness and shape factor. The shape factor is a correction
factor to account for edge and other geometrical effects when using the area/thickness model. Figure 1 shows
a table of shape factors for dome/pyramid and prism/cylinder reservoir geometries. Enter the chart on the left
with the approximate ratio of reservoir thickness to closure height, go across to the line which best describes
the geometry, and then down to read the shape factor multiplier. Be aware that the shape factors are
approximate (your structure is unlikely to have been laid down either by an Egyptian Pharaoh or the late Mr.
Christopher Wren) and introduce a notable source of error just by themselves; also, the shape factor is de
facto dependent on the reservoir thickness.

If the reservoir thickness is very small compared to closure, then the shape factor is nearly 1.0, and the
method can be used with acceptable accuracy. And if your source data are just a few speculative areas on a
geographical map the method may be the only one you can use. But as soon as you can start using a proper
map and enter area/depth data, do so!

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Figure 1 - Reservoir shape factors.

Contour Maps
Entry from contour maps is a bit more complicated but allows much more flexibility. There are three forms of
entry:

1. Top and base horizons

2. Top horizon and reservoir thickness

3. Top horizon only

4. Net pay maps

A mapped horizon is one for which you enter the contours and associated areas. It may or may not correspond
to the top or base of the reservoir. (See surface shifts below).

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The area/depth details of each horizon may be entered in the Surface Entry screen, or read from a file. In the
latter case the file should be prepared using the Map Digitization Module.

[Note: If changes are made to the .srf file in the Maps module, then the filename (at the bottom of the dialog)
will turn red and should be reloaded using the re-load button.]

File menu

Load surface file Click to browse for a new surface file and load the area/depth data

Import Click to import data. The data should be an ASCII text file, either space, tab or comma
delimited.

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Area/GRV

Data are area/depth The data can be either area/depth or GRV/depth.

Data are GRV depth (see Area vs. GRV below)

Area/depth table

Crest Enter the crest (highest point of surface)

Contour metres Enter a contour level for which to define the area

Area km2 Enter the area associated with this contour

Insert row Click to insert new row above selection

Delete row Click to delete selected row

Sort Click to sort the contours in depth order

Restart Click to delete all contours and start again

Plot .. Click to draw the area/depth (or GRV/depth) graph

Data loaded from

SRF file Specifies location of surface data

Re-load Click to reload the data from the specified surface file

View Click to view the map image file

Browse Click to browse for a new surface file and load the area/depth data

Units

Units Click to change the units

Using the Surface Entry screen, the area depth numbers are entered directly into a table. You should think of
the table as a numerical representation of the area/depth or GRV/depth plot. Each horizon has a crest (its
highest point - the depth with zero area) and then contour levels with associated areas.

In the table, contour levels and areas (or GRV's) should both increase down the table.

You can paste in numbers from the clipboard. First copy the numbers into the clipboard from XL or any other
compliant program, then press Ctrl-v on the keyboard to paste. If there are two columns in the clipboard they
will fill the table. You can also paste column-by-column, by first clicking in the REP column you want to
populate.

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You can also import the data from a text file.

If your map is of net pay thickness, then the "crest" should be the maximum net pay thickness (with a zero
area) and the "thickness" refers to net pay thickness and should decrease down the table, as the area
increases. Here's an example:

Area vs. GRV

If you have area data, and flick from area input to GRV input, the program will calculate the GRV at each
contour depth and present this in the table. And vice-versa. (If you already have data calculated or entered,
you are prompted before it recalculates the numbers.)

But it is important to appreciate that although the conversion is exact, choosing to calculate using area/depth
may give a slightly different answer to that using GRV/depth. It is not much - it depends on how many depths
you have entered - at worst a few percent. This is not a bug. It happens because, for depths between the
contour levels, the program interpolates the data. Interpolation in the area domain gives slightly different
results to interpolation in the GRV domain.

Area/GRV/depth units

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This dialog lets you change the units

Surface shifts
Having entered the top horizon, you are prompted for the surface shifts (if any).

The displacement from a mapped horizon to a reservoir surface is entered as a shift (which may be a constant
or a probability distribution). In REP, a positive shift is a shift downwards (increasing depth). Figure 2 shows
the relationship between a mapped horizon and the reservoir top surface, where the mapped horizon is below
the reservoir - so the shift (marked 1) is negative. In figure 3 the mapped horizon is above the reservoir, so
the shift (1) is positive. You may also define a shift from the top reservoir to the base seal (marked 2 in
figures 2 & 3).

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Figures 2 & 3 - The relationship between mapped horizon and reservoir surfaces.

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Shifts

From top mapped surface to top reservoir Check to define a shift from top mapped surface to top reservoir

From top reservoir to base seal. Check to define a shift from top mapped surface to base seal. You use
this if you have a "thief zone" at the top of the reservoir. It is exactly
equivalent to moving the spill point up by the thickness of (shift to) the
thief zone.

From base mapped surface to base reservoir Check to define a shift from base mapped surface to base reservoir

Notes

Notes -

These relate:

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(a) the top horizon to the top reservoir

(b) from the top reservoir to the base seal

In REP, a negative shift is a shift upwards (decreasing depth) and a positive shift is a shift downwards
(increasing depths).

[Note: Shift (b) above is from the top reservoir and not from the top horizon. Therefore, this shift is always
negative since the base seal is assumed to be above the top reservoir. Also, note that the minimum value of
the shift must always be a bigger negative number than the maximum shift. This is because, to REP, the
minimum value is always, numerically, the smallest: for example, -80 is less than -35.]

Also related to the top horizon is the spill point. This is entered as a depth on the top horizon. The program will
adjust the depth to the appropriate reservoir depth when it does the calculations.

If you have entered a base horizon you may specify a shift from it to the base reservoir.

REP makes a number of checks on the integrity of the horizon entry. In particular it checks that the base of
the reservoir is below the top of the reservoir, and that the spill points and contact levels lie within defined
depths on the area/depth curve. However, with all entries being distributions, and the possibility of so many
shifts, the number of possible combinations is very large. Final responsibility for data entry is with you the
user. It is always advisable to view or print the area/depth curve to check that no error has crept in.

Area Uncertainty
Area uncertainty is a simple multiplier to account for errors in the contouring - essentially, at any depth, it
says that the area could be larger or smaller by a given amount (the error is - of course - entered as a
probability distribution).

(Note than in earlier version of REP you had the choice to define or not an area uncertainty. Now you always
have it.)

Stacking Factor
Whatever form of GRV entry you have chosen you can enter a stacking factor. A stacking factor is useful in
plays with multiple pays. REP treats the stacking factor as a simple multiplier in the GRV calculation. Not
specifying a stacking factor is equivalent to defining one with a single value of 1.0.

A typical use of the stacking factor is where there are a number of separate but presumably similar sands each
with its own fluid contact. The rigorous way to handle this would be to model each sand separately and then
consolidate them. But if there are lots of them this is time-consuming and very possibly pointless. Take one
(or perhaps a couple of groups) and then apply the stacking factor to multiply up by the number of them that
there are. Note that the stacking factor can account not only for the number of them, but also for variations
between them.

By default the stacking factor is a continuous distribution. If you check "Discrete values" you force the stacking
factor to take only integer (whole) numbers, with a minimum value of 1. This doesn't make much difference to
the result, unless the distribution is small and tight.

Where there is (or may be) a change in some property with depth (which presumably also equates to the
number of them) you can use dependencies to model that change. Examples of such a dependent property are
porosity and formation volume factor.

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2.2.6 Hydrocarbons

This dialog consists of two tabs in which to enter the hydrocarbon type and options: Hydrocarbons and Fluids:
options. Associated probability distributions are entered afterwards.

See 'Entering Probability Distributions' for help with Probability Distributions.

Hydrocarbons
Prospects may be considered to contain oil, gas or both oil and gas. You need to define which, and how the
prospect is likely to be filled. There are three basic reservoir hydrocarbon types: Oil, Gas and Gas condensate.

Oil reservoirs can have a gas cap. Gas and gas condensate reservoirs can have an oil rim. (There is no
difference between an oil reservoir with a gas cap and a gas reservoir with an oil rim, though the former may
be more management-friendly.)

Given a particular primary hydrocarbon type, you can assign a chance that the secondary hydrocarbon (gas
cap or oil rim) is present.

With any oil volume you can additionally calculate an associated gas phase ("Solution gas"), and with a gas

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volume an associated liquids phase ("Associated oil (NGL)"). You can also account for the presence of inert
gas.

Gas condensate is treated as a gas in the reservoir, and produces dry gas and liquids at surface. See below for
alternative methods to estimate the liquids produced.

Oil case

Oil may be present Check if oil is - or may be - present

Solution gas Check to report solution gas in the oil phase

Gas cap Check if there may be a gas cap

(Gas cap) Probability Enter the probability of there being a gas cap

Associated oil (NGL) Check if you wish to define NGL derived from the gas

Gas case

Gas may be present Check if gas is - or may be - present

Associated oil (NGL) Check if you wish to define NGL derived from the gas

Oil rim Check if there may be an oil rim

(Oil rim) Probability Enter the probability of there being an oil rim

Solution gas Check if you wish to allow solution gas from the oil-rim oil

Gas condensate case

Gas condensate may be present Check if gas condensate is - or may be - present

Oil rim Check if there may be an oil rim

(Oil rim) Probability Enter the probability of there being an oil rim

Solution gas Check if you wish to allow solution gas from the oil-rim oil

Fluids: Options

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Gas and oil column split

Gas and oil column split Specify in what way you would like to present the gas and oil column split. This is only
relevant where there are both oil and gas phases present: oil with a gas cap
or gas/gas condensate with an oil rim

Specifying the split depends on how you have described the GRV:

• If you have entered GRV as a single distribution or as the product of


area, thickness and shape factor then the only option available is to
enter the amount of gas as a percentage of the total hydrocarbon-filled
volume. This can be rather hard to estimate!

• If you are calculating GRV from area/depth data you can enter the
percentage of gas as above; or you can enter the gas column height or
oil rim height (in feet or metres), or the gas column height as a
percentage of the total hydrocarbon column.

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Other options

You can optionally apply shrinkage factors to gas and gas condensate phases.
Use dry gas shrinkage and Shrinkage is a multiplier applied to the gas phase at the surface, and relates
the gas recovered to the gas sold, the difference being one or more of further
liquids extraction, fuel gas, gas compression usage etc. There are different
Use wet gas shrinkage shrinkage factors for "ordinary" gas and gas condensate. Shrinkage is usually
small - a few percentage points of gas taken out (so the REP entry will be
close to 100%). In most cases it can be ignored.

Use CGR for condensate These entries control how the liquids recovery is determined in a gas condenate reservoir.
recovery or
See 'Gas Condensate Reservoirs' below.
Use cond. RF for condensate
recovery

Inert gas (usually nitrogen, carbon dioxide or hydrogen sulphide) can fill the
Inert gas pore space but does not contribute to the hydrocarbon reserve:

• Gas-in-Place = Net hydrocarbon pore volume x (100-%Inerts) x Gas


expansion factor.

• Recoverable gas = GIP x Gas recovery factor.

[Note: The gas expansion factor refers to the hydrocarbon gas (though getting
this wrong is unlikely to make a significant difference in the context of REP).]

Use Sw/Height function Using an Sw-height function can be important in reservoirs where there is a
significant transition zone: tight reservoirs or structures with low relief. Using
such a function can have a dramatic (and only too real) effect on volumes.
Check the box if you want to use one. Entry of the function itself is described
in the 'Water Saturation Height Functions' section.

Sw-height functions can only be applied if you are calculating GRV from area/
depth data.

Use Sw/Height error You can choose to use an error function on the Sw calculated from the
function function. Check the box, and enter the error function later, as a probability
distribution.

Gas/oil equivalence

Equivalence If any of the product phases is a gas, you should enter a gas-oil equivalence
factor (in mmstb/bcf). This factor is used when calculating the barrels-of-oil-
equivalent. Ideally, gas-oil equivalence should be done on the basis of value,
or perhaps energy equivalence, and so should vary slightly from field to field.
But in practice most companies use a fixed value for all their assets. (So,
strangely, the gas-oil equivalence does vary from field to field, but this
variation is determined by accountants rather than petroleum engineers.) In
'User Options' you can specify this global equivalence factor and whether you
wish to apply it always. If so, the factor you enter here is not used (though it
is stored on file, and will be used if you switch off the global use).

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Gas and Oil Reservoirs with Column Height Specified


The way the program works out the actual volumes of oil and gas mimics - in a way - the charge and leakage
process. In any iteration, the program chooses a spill point and a gas column height and therefore a notional
gas-oil contact (GOC). If the spill point is above this GOC, the volume of gas is the volume down to the spill
point and there is no oil. If the spill point is below the GOC, the volume of gas is that down to the GOC, and
the volume of oil is that contained in the vertical interval between the GOC and the spill point. In other words,
the program "leaks off" hydrocarbon from below, which is of course what happens geologically if you assume
that leakage is post-charge.

Gas Condensate Reservoirs


In gas condensate cases, gas is considered the primary phase ("wet gas") and oil the associated phase.

Given a volume of wet gas in place, the wet gas expansion factor (1/Bg) and the wet gas recovery factor
determine the amount of gas that is recovered.

There are two ways to specify the liquids produced:

1. Use CGR for condensate recovery: you enter a liquids yield (CGR or condensate/gas ratio). This
should be a field average value, over the lifetime of the field. In order to calculate an equivalent "oil-in-
place" you must also enter an initial liquids yield. This is a single number not a distribution, and its only
purpose is to allow the program to work out (and report) this technically rather dodgy number. It also
serves as a reminder to those unused to the complication of gas condensate predictions that the initial
liquids yield (as reported, for example, in a drillstem test summary) is rarely - if ever - the field life
average, which in almost every case will be much lower. To reinforce this point, the program checks
that the initial yield is greater than the P10, the field average yield.

2. Use cond RF for condensate recovery: you enter an initial liquids yield and a liquids recovery factor
(cond RF), both as probability distributions.

In the second case, the condensate-in-place is reported on the summary output forms; in the first case it is
not.

Formation Volume Factors


You must enter probability distributions for the formation volume factors of oil, gas and gas condensate.
Formation volume factors define the relationship between the volumes REP reports as recoverable, and the
downhole volumes it calculates for each phase present. Gas/oil ratios (or liquids yields) are used to calculate
the volumes of associated phases. The ratios or yields are always expressed as a ratio of "recovered" (i.e.
reported) volumes.

Note: Often the formation volume factors and gas/oil ratios will be similar if not identical to those reported, for
example, in DST or PVT reports. But, especially in gas condensate cases, they may not be. REP has no
provision to simulate separation facilities, fuel gas requirements, equation-of-state models or any other of the
sophisticated processing that will be part of a final development scheme. It is up to you to satisfy yourself that
the combination of recovery factors, formation volume factors and GORs adequately represents the amount

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and distribution of recovered hydrocarbons.

The oil formation volume factor (Bo) is specified as a number greater than one, which is the way it is
invariably reported. The program will automatically divide by Bo rather than multiply by it in the calculations.
Note that this is one of the two obvious occasions in REP when the minimum value corresponds to the best
reserve case (the other being Sw).

If you told the program that you wish to calculate a gas phase associated with the oil you must enter a gas/oil
ratio. This is the ratio of "recovered" dry gas to "recovered" oil. In many field cases, the gas/oil ratio is not
constant throughout the life of the field. Since the program is not a reservoir simulator you should enter the
average gas/oil ratio over the full field life.

The gas formation volume factor (or more properly the gas expansion factor) 1/Bg is also entered as a number
greater than 1.

If you told the program that you wish to calculate an oil phase (condensate) associated with the gas you must
enter a liquids yield (or oil/gas ratio). This is the ratio of "recovered" dry oil to "recovered" gas. As with GOR
above, this number must represent the average yield over field life.

Fluid Correlations
See 'Fluid Correlations' for more information.

2.2.7 Sorbed gas

Sorbed gas is an important resource component in shale gas and coal bed methane plays. The gas is
adsorbed onto the surface of the rock. The amount of sorbed gas in a given rock ("Sorbed gas
content") can be measured (or at least estimated) in the laboratory. The laboratory derived Langmuir
isotherm is used to correct lab data to reservoir data. Extensive literature exists on this topic.

In REP, you can either enter sorbed gas content, or the isotherm data and the correction factors. Since
sorbed gas content is traditionally measured in scf/ton (ton being short in this context) you need also
to enter the rock density to allow conversion to volumes

Model

Choose how you want to define sorbed gas content

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Direct entry of sorbed gas Two distributions are entered: gas content and density
content

Use a Langmuir isotherm, The isotherm constants are entered, along with reservoir TOC.
pressure, temperature etc.

Direct entry

Simple!

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Langmuir isotherm

The isotherm constants are Langmuir volume, TOC, pressure and temperature. These all refer to the
laboratory measurement and should really be single values. However, one core sample is not
representative of the shale, so uncertainty in how well the sample (or sample) represent the reservoir is
modelled by making the Langmuir volume a probability distribution.

The other parameters model the reservoir conditions, and so reflect how the reservoir differs from the
lab sample and measurement in TOC, pressure, and temperature. Reservoir bulk density is required for
conversion from scf/ton to bcf of sorbed gas.

Cynics observe that shale resource estimation is hugely uncertain, and that using isotherm data is over-
science on the same scale.

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2.2.8 Petrophysics

This dialog consists of three distribution tabs: Net-to-gross (NTG), Porosity (PHI) and Water saturation (Sw).
Units are either fractions or percentages.

If you have chosen to use a saturation-height function rather that an Sw distribution, the Sw tab shows the
function. See Saturation-height functions

If you are using a dual porosity model you must also enter net-to-gross, porosity and water saturation for the
secondary system. Although the secondary porosity system is usually a fracture network, it doesn't have to
be. It could be any distinct system - a second identifiable facies, for example.

If it a fractured reservoir, the first net-to-gross, porosity and Sw are assumed to relate to the matrix. You will
have to decide how to manipulate the three "fracture" variables to arrive at the correct fracture volume. Often,
people set the fracture net-to-gross to 100%, fracture Sw to 0%, and vary only the fracture porosity. Others
set the fracture porosity to 100%, and control the fracture volume by the NTG distribution. In fracture systems
too much precision is usually indefensible. Note that later on you will also enter a fracture recovery factor:
commonly this is set to 100%. The big decision concerns the primary system recovery factor.

Note that water saturation (Sw) is entered, rather than oil saturation (So) or gas saturation (Sg).
This is because Sw is the commonly calculated and reported quantity. REP will convert Sw to So
or Sg when it comes to the calculation. This is the second of the two obvious occasions (the
other being Bo) when the minimum value of a parameter does not correspond to the minimum
reserve case.

For more information, see 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

It is possible to copy a distribution to another prospect or model, visit our section on 'Copying Distributions to
Other Models or Prospects' to learn how.

2.2.9 Water Saturation Height Functions

Where GRV is calculated from an area/depth table you can specify an Sw/Height function to calculate Sw as a
function of depth above the water contact. To define the Sw-Height function you can either use a standard
equation, or enter Sw and height values in a table.

For those equations which do not have a porosity term, or when using tabular data only, there is no associated
uncertainly in the function beyond what may be implicit in the hydrocarbon-water contact or spill point/degree-
of-fill combination. However, you apply an error function to Sw calculated from the Sw-height relationship.
This is a simple multiplier:

Sw = Sw|tab x Sw_error

For those equations which do have a porosity term, the uncertainty in Sw is directly linked to that in porosity.
Since Sw is often a large uncertainly in reserves calculation, this may result in overconfidence in the result. If
this is an issue you can apply the error function described above.

To use Sw/Height, check the box in the Hydrocarbons Model dialogue (the Fluids: options tab), or on the
Input Data Summary property sheet. You can also choose to use the error function here. Then choose the
menu option Parameters | NTG/Porosity/Sw or click the [Sw/Height] button on the first page of the Input

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Data Summary property sheet.

Saturation-height functions can be defined for each layer.

Equations

Equations Choose equation you wish to use

Fill> Click to fill table with points derived from the equation

Constants

Set.. Click to set/adjust the equations

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Units

Height Choose a unit for height

Sw Choose to show water saturation as a percentage or as a fraction

Porosity Choose to show porosity as a percentage or as a fraction

Convert on change Convert existing values on unit change

Table

Height ft/m Enter the height above contact/spill.

Note that it is possible to be extremely pedantic about the difference between


hydrocarbon water contact and free water level. In a REP context the difference can
be safely ignored - or, if not, you may be using the wrong software.

Sw %/fr Enter the corresponding water saturation

Insert Click to insert a new entry

Delete Click to delete the selected entry

Clear Click to clear the table

Sort Click to sort the entries

Plot Click to plot the data

Irreducible/Misc

Sw-irr Enter the irreducible water saturation

Ref Phi Enter a reference porosity for use in plotting equations

Above Enter the depth above which Sw-irr is effective

Using an Equation

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To use an equation, click the one you want to use from the list on the screen. The parameters to be used in
the equation are shown in the "Constants" box. To change these, click the [Set..] button. This brings up the
Constants Entry Screen where you can enter the constant values. On the right of this screen the function is
plotted out. As you move the slider bars you can see how the function changes. This is particularly useful if
porosity is an input to the equation. The porosity value used by the equation can also be varied by moving its
slider, so you can see its effect.

Constants

Default Click to set default constants

Back in the main entry screen, you can fill the table on the right with Height and Sw values derived from the
equation. Click the [Fill>] button. REP will calculate 12 values for Sw, starting at Height=0, and going up to
Height=100, or up to the maximum height already entered in the table. Click the [Plot] button to show the
Sw/Height curve on a graph. For equations which use porosity, you should enter a porosity to use in
calculating the values in the table. This is the Ref. Phi entry at the bottom right of the screen.

Note: the units for height, Sw and porosity should be chosen in the box at the bottom left of the screen. They
are independent of the units you have chosen elsewhere in the program. This is because the constants may
have been derived by engineers or petrophysicists, a dismal and uncooperative cadre of pessimists whose twin
goals - as everyone knows - are to confuse and reduce by wielding unlikely equations with arcane terms.

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You must enter an irreducible Sw ("Sw-irr") and - optionally - a depth above which it applies in the
"Irreducible" box at bottom right. If Sw-irr is entered, Sw is clipped so that it is always at least this value. If
the "height above" is specified, Sw is always Sw-irr above this height.

If you wish to use an equation of a form not specified on the screen, it can easily be added. E-mail us at
support@ogicomep.com.

Using Tabular Data


To enter data in the table, click "Use table" in the Source box. Enter the values in the table. You can use the
buttons at the right of the table to insert and delete rows, sort the data in ascending height order, and clear all
the table entries.

You can also paste in numbers from the clipboard. First copy the numbers into the clipboard from LogIC or XL
or any other compliant program. Then press Ctrl-v on the keyboard. If there are two columns in the clipboard
they will fill the table. You can also paste column-by-column, by first clicking in the REP column you want to
populate.

If you click the [Plot] button, a graph of the function is shown. You can enter and edit the table values directly
on the graph:

• Double click to define a new point.

• Click and drag a point to move it to a new location.

• Right click on a point to remove it.

The irreducible saturation Sw-irr (see above) is shown as a green vertical line on the plot.

Validation
When you close the screen, REP checks the data. As height increases, so Sw should decrease, and if it does
not REP will warn you of "kinks" in the function. You may choose to ignore this warning, and the program will
use the function as it is.

The only rules that cannot be broken are that Sw must be greater than Sw-irr if entered, and less than or
equal to 100%.

2.2.10 Recovery Factors

The distribution of recovery factors for oil, gas and gas condensate (wet gas) are entered in the normal way,
as probability distributions.

In dual porosity systems, recovery factors must also be given for the hydrocarbon contained in the fracture (or
secondary) system. In a true fracture system most people set the recovery factor to a single value of 100%.

For more information, see 'Entering Possibility Distributions'.

It is possible to copy a distribution to another prospect or model, see 'Copying Distributions to Other Models or
Prospects' to learn how to do this.

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2.2.11 Variable Dependencies

By default, the program assumes that all variables are independent of each other. This means that within any
one Monte-Carlo iteration the value chosen for a particular variable is not influenced in any way by the value
that has been chosen for any other variable.

This assumption may be acceptable, but both intuition and field data suggest that it is wrong. For example,
there is very often a relationship between porosity and water saturation (the higher the porosity the lower the
water saturation) and net-to-gross ratio and porosity (the lower the net-to-gross the higher the porosity, or
sometimes conversely). In some cases there might be a relationship between net-to-gross ratio and spill point/
water contact; if the reservoir quality decreases with depth the net-to-gross will decrease as the spill point/
contact gets deeper.

Although you may suspect a dependency exists, it is often hard to quantify what it is. Therefore, one question
that is useful to answer is: does using a dependency make any significant difference to the result? REP allows
you to answer this question very quickly.

Often the answer is: not much. But every now and again dependencies really do make a difference and in
these circumstances you need to think carefully about how to quantify them.

REP allows you to define up to 20 dependencies. You may enter the dependencies in any order, the program
will work out which values to pick first when it comes to do the calculation. It will also check that there are no
circular references (e.g. porosity on net-to-gross and net-to-gross on porosity).

Each dependency is between two variables, one independent and one dependent. The value chosen for the
dependent variable will depend on the value previously chosen for the independent variable. A variable may be
both independent and dependent, allowing a "cascade" of dependency. For example, water saturation may
depend on porosity, porosity on net-to-gross ratio, and net-to-gross on reservoir thickness.

There are two types of dependency: "functional" and "relational". Their behaviour is different:

• In a functional dependency, the dependent variable (y) is defined as a linear function of the independent
variable (x): thus y = f(x). The dependent variable therefore inherits its shape from the independent
variable. In a given iteration, the value of the dependent variable depends on the value of the
independent variable.

• In a relational dependency, the shape of the dependent variable is preserved. The random number (Ry,
0<=R<=1) used to choose the value of the dependent variable is a function of the random number (Rx)
used to choose the independent variable: thus Ry = f(Rx).

A relational dependency shows a more predictable behaviour than the functional, because you have complete
control over its shape. If you have the data, the functional is probably better. It you just have a feeling about
the relationship, the relational may be preferable.

But it should be stressed, that if you have correctly defined the dependency in each case the two should give
similar results.

Dependencies are entered in the dialog shown here:

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Enable If not checked, dependencies will not be used


dependencies

Table

Dependent Enter the dependent variable (i.e. the one which depends on another variable)
variable

Depending on Enter the independent variable (i.e. the one which the dependent variable depends on)

Relation +ve/- If -ve, the dependent variable decreases when the independent increases, etc.
ve

Degree % Enter degree of dependency as a percentage: 100% is fully dependent

Use Click to use this dependency

Effective

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distribution

Min, P50, P90 The key values of the dependent variable, with the dependency enabled.
etc

Advanced

Type Is the dependent variable a function of the dependent variable (functional) or are the
distributions merely "linked" (relational).

Style Enter the spread clipping style: continuous or clipped

Variable shape Enter the spread shape around the 100% line: rectangular, triangular or normal

Buttons

Delete Delete the selected dependency

Plot Make a plot of the selected dependency

Close Close this dialog

On the left panel you enter the dependencies. On the right the statistics for the dependent distribution are
shown (you can also plot it - see below).

In the table, enter the Dependent and Independent ("depending on") variables. The other parameters required
to define the dependency relation are described here. It is important to appreciate that when you make a
variable dependent, the only parameters inherited from its original distribution are the minimum and
maximum. All the others are determined from the distribution upon which it depends.

Relation +ve or -ve: This specifies whether the dependent variable increases as the independent
variable increases, or decreases. The former is a positive ("+ve") dependency, the latter is a negative
("-ve") dependency. The increase (or decrease) refers to the mathematical value of the variable, not the
impact on reserves. For example, it is commonly observed that water saturation decreases with
increasing porosity. This is therefore a negative relationship.

Degree %: The percentage dependency (or degree of dependency) defines the degree to which the
variables are dependent on each other. 100% dependent means that for any given value of the
independent variable there is one and only one possible value for the dependent variable. Any
percentage dependency less than 100% allows the dependent variable to take a value which departs
from the 100%. The less the degree of dependency, the greater the possible departure.

In a functional dependency, when working out the value for the dependent variable the program first
calculates the "100%" value. It will then work out a (random) departure from this value based on the
dependency percentage and the variance shape (see below).

In a relational dependency, the percentage dependency is approximately equivalent to the coefficient of


correlation between Rx and Ry, the random variables chosen for x and y.

Type: Functional or relational, as described above.

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Style: This may be either "continuous" or "clipped", and is only relevant if the %dependency is less
than 100%, and for functional dependencies. In such a case, and especially when the value for the
independent variable is near its minimum or maximum - or when the degree of dependency is low - the
resulting value for the dependent variable could be outside its defined limits (i.e. less than its minimum
or greater than its maximum). If style is clipped then the value is constrained to be within the limits. If
style is continuous the "100% value" is modified so that, for the given degree of dependency, all
possible values of the dependent variable lie within the limits.

Note: Using the continuous style usually decreases the spread of the dependent variable. Use the [Plot]
button to see the results.

Variance Shape: This may be either "rectangular" or "triangular", and determines the distribution of
the variance from the 100% value. If rectangular, the departure from the 100% value is randomly
distributed. If triangular, larger departures are less likely. Using rectangular increases the spread of the
dependent variable. It is used only for functional dependencies.

For functional dependencies, the concepts are best understood with an example, and some pictures. Suppose
water saturation (Sw) is 60% dependent on porosity (phi). It is a negative relationship because as porosity
increases water saturation decreases. Suppose the limits for porosity are 10% to 20%, and the limits for SW
are 30% to 40%. On a graph of SW vs. phi, the 100% line (clipped case) runs from {SW=40,phi=10} to
{SW=30,phi=20}. Now suppose the program chooses a value for porosity of 15%. The 100% dependent
value for SW is 35%. But the degree of dependency is 60%, so some departure is allowed. It is calculated as
follows:

If D is the degree of dependency and the range (maximum-minimum) in the dependent variable is R,
then the maximum allowed departure either side of the line is:

R x (100-D)/200

In the example: -

R = 40 - 30 = 10 saturation units

D = 60

So: -

Max departure = 10 x (100-60)/200

= 2 saturation units

In other words, the chosen SW can vary between 33% and 37%

If style is continuous, the 100% line runs from {phi=10,SW=38} to {phi=20,SW=12}. If the program
happens to choose the minimum value for phi, the 100% value for SW is 38%. The allowed departure is the
same as before (i.e. +/-2), so the maximum possible value for SW is 40%, safely within limits.

From the above - for functional dependencies - it follows that defining a 0% dependency does not
have the same result as treating two variables as independent, especially if the style is "clipped".
This is easily seen, by considering how the program works in each case.

Note: For relational dependencies, a 0% dependency is the same as no dependency: though the program
might give a slightly different answer, because the random number sequence (even with a fixed seed) will be
different in the two cases.

The effect of using variable dependencies is usually, but not always, small. In general, defining a positive
dependency increases the mean and increases the spread. A negative dependency has the reverse effect.

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[Note: Remember that SW is transformed to hydrocarbon saturation (Shc) by the program, so a negative
dependency involving SW is really a positive dependency with Shc, and therefore will normally increase the
mean and spread of the results.]

Use the [Plot] button to look at the data. Here are some examples. The independent variable is plotted on the
x-axis, the dependent variable on the y-axis. The dark red distribution (.pdf) is that of the dependent variable
when the dependency is active. (It may not be a very smooth curve - it is estimated from a short Monte-Carlo
run). The feint red distribution is the original .pdf of the dependent variable. So REP will use the dark red when
the dependency is enabled, and the feint red when it is not.

Figure 1 - Here SW is 60% dependent on porosity, with a negative relation (continuous):

Figure 2 - Here SW is 60% dependent on porosity, with a negative relation (clipped):

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Figure 3 - This shows a positive relation, 100% dependent:

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2.2.12 Prospect Risking

The prospect risking section is a single screen in which risk factors are entered for the main elements of the
play and prospect.

REP has a number of alternative risking schemes that you can use. However, all share the same basic concept:
the overall chance of success of a prospect is divided into the two main categories of play chance and prospect
specific chance. Some explorationists are uncomfortable with the concept of play chance and prefer to use only
prospect specific chance. If you are one of these, set play chance to be 100%. Others prefer different chance
categories or different nomenclature. These can be set up in the 'Site Customization Section'. You should note,
however, that the way a prospect is risked is generally a matter of corporate policy and - if you will forgive the
warning - should only be changed with good reason.

Play chance is the chance that at least one prospect in the play is to be discovered. If, in the play, some oil or
gas has already been discovered then - other things being equal - play chance is 100%. Prospect specific
chance is the chance that a specific prospect contains hydrocarbons assuming that there is (or will be) at least
one discovery in the play.

In most schemes:

Play chance is divided into reservoir, seal and source chance.

Prospect specific chance is divided into trap, reservoir, seal and migration chance.

For each of chance elements you should enter the chance as a percentage, with 100% indicating certainty of
success.

As you change the numbers, the overall chances (play chance, prospect specific chance and prospect chance)
are automatically updated. The overall chance of success is the chance that the minimum amount of

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hydrocarbon will be found.

The concepts of play and prospect specific chance become especially relevant when you come to consolidate
your results.

See our 'Prospect Risking Schemes' section for more information on the different risking schemes.

2.2.12.1 Prospect Risking Schemes

REP has a number of alternative risking schemes that you can use. However, all share the same basic concept:
the overall chance of success of a prospect is divided into the two main categories of play chance and prospect
specific chance.

The risking scheme you want to can be specified in the 'Site Customisation Section' (User Options |
Installation). The way a prospect is risked is generally a matter of corporate policy if you are working in a
corporate environment you will probably not need/want/be allowed top experiment with different risking
schemes.

In some schemes, the categories of play and prospect risk are themselves divided into elements. For example,
reservoir chance can be divided into presence and effectiveness. When it comes to calculation of the final risk
in each element there are two commonly used methods:

• In a "multiplicative" scheme all the chance elements in each category are multiplied together to get the
final category risk.

• In a "minimum risk" scheme the category risk is the minimum of all the element risks.

Strictly speaking, minimum risk schemes are a bit dodgy. They are a practical - if inelegant - way to overcome
the perceived problem of over-risking a prospect.

In all schemes, the final chance of success ("GPOS") is the multiplication of all the risk category chances.

Schemes

Here is a brief description of each scheme currently implemented in REP:

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• Scheme 1 is a basic scheme in which the play risk has three elements: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and
the prospect specific risk has four elements: Trap, Reservoir, Seal and Migration. The overall chance of
success is the seven chances multiplied together.

• Scheme 2 has a single value for play chance. The prospect specific chance is divided into three sections:
Reservoir, Trap and Source. Each of these elements is described by Presence and Effectiveness and you
assign a probability to each. Only the lowest probability is used. So, if you give reservoir presence a
chance of 0.8 and reservoir effectiveness a chance of 0.75, the actual reservoir chance used in the
calculations will be 0.75. The overall chance of success is the play chance and the three prospect
specific chances multiplied together.

• Scheme 3 is the same as Scheme 1 in that there are three categories of play risk and four categories of
prospect specific chance. However, you can give each category your own name and you can also link
probability ranges with names. For example, you can label probabilities between 25% and 50%
"Possible" and below 25% as "Risky". The overall chance of success is the seven chances multiplied
together.

• Scheme 4 has three categories of play risk: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and three of prospect specific
risk: Trap, Reservoir and Migration. There are two additional risks: Model risk and Phase risk. The
overall chance of success is the eight chances multiplied together.

• Scheme 5 has no play risk. The chance of success is divided into four categories: Trap, Seal, Reservoir
and Hydrocarbon Charge. In each category a number of "conditions" or "considerations" are presented
and you are invited to assign a probability that the condition is satisfied. The condition with the lowest
probability is the controlling one and this gives the category its chance of success. The overall chance of
success is the four chances multiplied together.

• Scheme 6 has three categories of play risk: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and five of prospect specific
risk: Trap, Reservoir, Seal, Migration and Timing. The overall chance of success is the eight chances
multiplied together.

• Scheme 7 is XL-based. Please e-mail us if you are interested in this option.

• Scheme 8 is "Q&A" based, like Scheme 5. There are three categories of play risk and four of prospect
specific. Each category has several questions to which the answer is a chance expressed numerically but
linked to a named answer (e.g. 70% equates to "likely"). In each category, the answer with the lowest
chance is used as the chance for the category, a so-called minimum risking scheme.

• Scheme 9 has three categories of play risk: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and four of prospect specific
risk: Trap, Seal, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge. The overall chance of success is the seven chances
multiplied together.

• Scheme 10 is similar to Scheme 9 but with only three categories of prospect specific risk: Trap,
Reservoir and Hydrocarbon charge.

• Scheme 11 is again similar to Scheme 9 except that it includes a model risk and six categories of
prospect specific risk (charge is split into Source, Migration and Timing).

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• Scheme 12 is again similar to Scheme 9, however there are some differences to the questions. It has
three categories of play risk: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and three of prospect specific risk: Trap,
Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge. The overall chance of success is the six chances multiplied together.

• Scheme 9 with trap play risk (#15) has four categories of play risk: Trap, Reservoir, Seal and Source;
and four of prospect specific risk: Trap, Seal, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge. The overall chance of
success is the eight chances multiplied together.

• Scheme 16 is a minimum risking scheme similar to 8, with the addition of an amplitude modifier.

• Scheme 17 is another minimum risking approach, also with an amplitude modifier.

• Scheme 21 is a minimum risking approach, with an amplitude modifier.

• Schemes 22 and 24 are multiplicative schemes using only 6 elements: presence and effectiveness of
trap, reservoir and source. The difference between the two is in the questions.

• Scheme 23 is multiplicative, with five prospect specific categories: reservoir, seal, structure, charge and
recovery.

• Scheme 25 is multiplicative, with five prospect specific categories: source, reservoir, trap, migration and
seal. There are no questions, you enter comments for all entries.

2.2.12.1.1 Prospect Risking - Scheme 1

This is a basic scheme in which the Play risk has three elements: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and the Prospect
Specific risk has four elements: Trap, Reservoir, Seal and Migration.

The overall chance of success is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x (prospect specific)

P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(migration)

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Considerations
You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:

Trap
Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base
reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.

Reservoir
Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.

Seal
Juxtaposition, thicknesses, pinchout, fault throw, halokinesis, re-activation, fracture gradient, analogues, gas-
chimneys, seepages, DHI, etc.

Migration

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Play chance

Reservoir Select the play reservoir chance (%)

Seal Select the play seal chance (%)

Source Select the play source chance (%)

Play chance Total play chance: P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)

Prospect
specific chance

Trap Select the prospect specific trap chance (%)

Reservoir Select the prospect specific reservoir chance (%)

Seal Select the prospect specific seal chance (%)

Migration Select the prospect specific migration chance (%)

Prospect specific Total prospect specific chance: P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(migration)
chance

Overall chance
of success

Trap Overall trap chance (%)

Reservoir Overall reservoir chance (%)

Seal Overall seal chance (%)

Source Overall source chance (%)

Migration Overall migration chance (%)

Overall prospect Overall chance: P(play) x P(prospect specific)


chance

2.2.12.1.2 Prospect Risking - Scheme 2

Scheme 2 has a single value for Play chance. The Prospect Specific chance is divided into three sections:
Reservoir, Trap and Source. Each of these elements is described by Presence and Effectiveness and you assign
a probability to each. This is a multiplicative scheme: the chance elements are multiplied together.

You can also enter an chance modifier, presumably based on some observed amplitude anomaly or lack of it.

The overall chance of success is the play chance and the three prospect specific chances multiplied together,
plus the amplitude modifier, if any.

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Considerations
You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:

Reservoir
Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.

Trap
Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base

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reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.

Source

Play chance

Play chance Select the play chance (%)

Reservoir

Presence Select the (prospect specific) reservoir presence chance (%)

Effectiveness Select the (prospect specific) reservoir effectiveness chance (%)

Total Total reservoir chance P(presence) x P(effectiveness)

Trap

Presence Select the (prospect specific) trap presence chance (%)

Effectiveness Select the (prospect specific) trap effectiveness chance (%)

Total Total trap chance: P(presence) x P(effectiveness)

Source

Presence Select the (prospect specific) source presence chance (%)

Effectiveness Select the (prospect specific) source effectiveness chance (%)

Total Total source chance: P(presence) x P(effectiveness)

Amplitude
modifier

Check if you wish to use the modifier


Amplitude
prospect

Modifier The chance to be added to (or subtracted from) the total.

Overall
prospect

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specific

Prospect specific Total prospect specific chance: P(reservoir) x P(trap) x P(source)


chance

Overall
prospect
chance

Overall prospect Overall prospect specific chance: P(play) x P(prospect specific)


chance

2.2.12.1.3 Prospect Risking - Scheme 3

Scheme 3 has three categories of play risk and four categories of prospect specific chance. You can give each
category your own name and you can also link probability ranges with names. For example, you can label
probabilities between 25% and 50% "Possible" and below 25% as "Risky".

The overall chance of success is the seven chances multiplied together:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x (prospect specific)

P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(migration)

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Considerations
You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:

Trap
Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base
reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.

Reservoir
Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.

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Seal
Juxtaposition, thicknesses, pinchout, fault throw, halokinesis, re-activation, fracture gradient, analogues, gas-
chimneys, seepages, DHI, etc.

Migration

Play chance

Reservoir Select the play reservoir chance (%)

Source Select the play source chance (%)

Seal Select the play seal chance (%)

Prospect
specific chance

Trap Select the prospect specific trap chance (%)

Reservoir Select the prospect specific reservoir chance (%)

Seal Select the prospect specific seal chance (%)

Source Select the prospect specific source chance (%)

Geological
chance of
success

Geological Total geological chance of success (P(play) x P(prospect specific))


Chance of
Success

2.2.12.1.4 Prospect Risking - Scheme 4

Scheme 4 has three categories of play risk: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and three of prospect specific risk:
Trap, Reservoir and Migration. There are two additional risks: Model risk and Phase risk.

The overall chance of success is the eight chances multiplied together:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific) x P(model) x P(phase)

P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(migration)

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Considerations
You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:

Trap
Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base
reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.

Reservoir
Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.

Migration

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Model risk

Model Select the model risk (%)

Play risk

Reservoir Select the play reservoir risk (%)

Seal Select the play seal risk (%)

Source Select the play source risk (%)

Total Total play risk (P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source))

Prospect
specific risk

Trap Select the prospect specific trap risk (%)

Reservoir Select the prospect specific reservoir risk (%)

Migration Select the prospect specific migration risk (%)

Total Total prospect specific risk (P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(migration))

Phase risk

Phase Select the phase risk (%)

Overall chance
of success

Overall prospect Total overall prospect chance (P(play) x P(prospect specific) x P(model) x P(phase)
chance

2.2.12.1.5 Prospect Risking - Scheme 5

In this scheme, Prospect Chance is divided into four categories: Trap, Seal, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon
Charge.

Each category has two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This is a
minimum risking scheme, the category chance is the lowest of all the element chances. For example, Reservoir

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Chance has two elements: 'presence' and 'effectiveness'. If you assign 'presence' a chance of 80% and
'effectiveness' a chance of 60% then 'effectiveness' is the determining element and the Reservoir Chance is
60%.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 10%.

You can also enter an Amplitude modifier uplift (or downlift) if there is an amplitude anomaly, as per the SAAM
consortium.

The Overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the four category chances, plus the modifier.

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(trap) x P(seal) x P(reservoir) x P(charge) + Amplitude


modifier

Tip: Answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

The critical chance shown on on the left hand play is the controlling chance (the one with the highest risk).

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2.2.12.1.6 Prospect Risking - Scheme 6

Scheme 6 has three categories of Play risk: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and five of Prospect Specific risk:
Trap, Reservoir, Seal, Migration and Timing.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific)

P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(migration) x P(timing)

Considerations
You should consider the following when mulling over the various risk elements:

Trap
Correct horizon identification(s), depth conversion, spill point, correct construction of appropriate top/base
reservoir depth maps from mapped seismic horizon(s), veracity and structural conformance of DHI.

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Reservoir
Seismic AI, seismic AVO, DHI, field analogues, offset wells, petrophysics, etc.

Seal
Juxtaposition, thicknesses, pinchout, fault throw, halokinesis, re-activation, fracture gradient, analogues, gas-
chimneys, seepages, DHI, etc

Migration

Timing

Play chance

Reservoir Select the play reservoir chance (%)

Seal Select the play seal chance (%)

Source Select the play source chance (%)

Play chance Total play chance (P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source))

Prospect
specific chance

Trap Select the prospect specific trap chance (%)

Reservoir Select the prospect specific reservoir chance (%)

Seal Select the prospect specific seal chance (%)

Migration Select the prospect specific migration chance (%)

Timing Select the prospect specific timing chance (%)

Prospect specific Total prospect specific chance (P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(migration) x
chance P(timing))

Overall chance
of success

Chance Overall chance of success (P(play) x P(prospect specific))

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2.2.12.1.7 Prospect Risking - Scheme 7 (Using an XL Spreadsheet to Enter Chances of Success)

You can use an XL spreadsheet to enter the risking. The advantage of this is that you can continually update it
without the necessity for program changes or even letting us know (as long as some simple rules are
followed). It also remains in your offices and Logicom or other REP users need never see it.

To use such a system go to Setup | Installation from the main REP menu (first window) and choose risking
Scheme 7 ("XL-based"'). Below, enter the file name of the master spreadsheet that defines your risking
scheme. You also need to define the name of the worksheet within the spreadsheet which contains the final
risks.

The spreadsheet can be anywhere on your network or your local machine. We recommend you mark the
master spreadsheet "read only" so that users cannot change it.

Note: It is not part of the REP installation so if you load REP onto a new machine you must remember to put
the spreadsheet on it too.

Using the XL Risking Scheme


When you start a new prospect and go to Prospect Risking, REP loads the spreadsheet into an XL window.
Most of the normal XL functions are available (for reasons unknown to the global user community, print
preview is not amongst them). Enter data in the spreadsheet as you would using XL in the normal way. When
you are done, choose the XL menu item File | Save (or Save as). This does two things: it saves the XL file
(by default, it will go in the same directory as the prospect .ppr file and we recommend you keep it so but it is
not absolutely necessary) and it tells REP to retrieve the key data from the spreadsheet. These are the play
chances and the prospect specific risks as defined in the spreadsheet.

Note: The act of saving the file updates REP. If you do not save the spreadsheet you will lose your work in XL.

The XL spreadsheet filename becomes part of the prospect .ppr file, so you should be sure to save the .ppr file
after making any changes to the spreadsheet. Of course, you should do this anyway unless you want to lose
all your REP entries.

Rules

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The rules for making the spreadsheet work are simple. REP searches the specified worksheet for named cells
corresponding to the categories of risk that it recognises. These names are:

Play Chances

pl_res Chance of Regional Reservoir

pl_source Chance of Regional Source

pl_seal Chance of Regional Seal

Prospect Specific Chances

pr_trap Trap

pr_res Reservoir

pr_seal Seal

pr_mig Migration

pr_source Source

If REP cannot find a cell with one of the above names it will set that chance to 100%.

If you have any problems making your spreadsheet work, please contact us at Logicom and we will sort out
the problem. Or at least try to.

2.2.12.1.8 Prospect Risking - Scheme 8

In this scheme, overall Prospect Chance is divided into Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance.

Play Chance is divided into three categories: Reservoir, Seal and Source (or Regional Reservoir, Regional Seal
and Regional Source).

Prospect Chance is divided into four categories: Trap, Seal, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge.

Each category has two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. The
category chance is the lowest of all the element chances (a "minimum risking" scheme).

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

For example, Reservoir Chance has two elements: 'presence' and 'effectiveness'. If you assign 'presence' a
chance of 80% and 'effectiveness' a chance of 60% then 'effectiveness' is the determining element and the
Reservoir Chance is 60%.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific)

P(play) = P(regional reservoir) x P(regional seal) x P(regional source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(seal) x P(reservoir) x P(charge)

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2.2.12.1.9 Prospect Risking - Scheme 9

In this scheme, Overall Prospect Chance is divided into Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance.

Play Chance is divided into three categories: Reservoir, Seal and Source (or Regional Reservoir, Regional Seal

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and Regional Source).

Prospect Chance is divided into four categories: Trap, Seal, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge.

Each category has two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This is a
multiplicative scheme and the final category chance is the multiplication of all the element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

This is a multiplicative scheme, so all chances in all categories are mulitplied together to get the final GPOS.
For example, Reservoir Chance has 2 elements: 'presence' and 'effectiveness'. If you assign 'presence' a
chance of 80% and 'effectiveness' a chance of 90% then the Reservoir Chance is 72%.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific)

P(play) = P(regional reservoir) x P(regional seal) x P(regional source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(seal) x P(reservoir) x P(charge)

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

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2.2.12.1.10 Prospect Risking - Scheme 10

In this scheme, overall Prospect Chance is divided into Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance.

Play Chance is divided into three categories: Reservoir, Seal and Source (or Regional Reservoir, Regional Seal
and Regional Source).

Prospect Chance is also divided into three categories: Trap, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge.

Each category has two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This is a
multiplicative scheme and the final category chance is the multiplication of all the element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

This is a multiplicative scheme, so all chances in all categories are mulitplied together to get the final GPOS.
For example, Reservoir Chance has 2 elements: 'presence' and 'effectiveness'. If you assign 'presence' a
chance of 80% and 'effectiveness' a chance of 90% then the Reservoir Chance is 72%.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific)

P(play) = P(regional reservoir) x P(regional seal) x P(regional source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(seal) x P(reservoir) x P(charge)

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

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2.2.12.1.11 Prospect Risking - Scheme 11

In this scheme, play chance is divided into three categories: Reservoir, Seal and Source; and prospect chance
is divided into six categories: Trap, Seal, Reservoir, Source, Migration and Timing. There is also a model
chance.

Each category has one or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. Scheme
11 is a "minimum risk" type, in each category chance is the minimum of the element chances. For example,
suppose reservoir chance has two elements: 'presence' and 'effectiveness'. If you assign 'presence' a chance
of 80% and 'effectiveness' a chance of 90% then the reservoir chance is 80%.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 10%.

The Overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the ten category chances:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific) x P(model)

P(play) = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(seal) x P(reservoir) x P(source) x P(migration) x


P(timing)

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

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2.2.12.1.12 Prospect Risking - Scheme 12

In this scheme, Overall Prospect Chance is divided into Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance.

Play Chance is divided into three categories: Reservoir, Seal and Source (or Regional Reservoir, Regional Seal
and Regional Source).

Prospect Chance is divided into three categories: Trap, Reservoir and Hydrocarbon Charge.

Each category has key elements that you are required to assign a chance to. This is a multiplicative scheme
and the final category chance is the multiplication of all the element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific)

P(play) = P(regional reservoir) x P(regional seal) x P(regional source)

P(prospect specific) = P(trap) x P(reservoir) x P(charge)

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

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2.2.12.1.13 Prospect Risking - Scheme 21

In this scheme, Overall Prospect Chance is divided into Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance. The is also
a modifier for DHI evidence ("Amplitude prospect)

Play Chance is divided into three categories: Reservoir, Source and seal (or Regional Reservoir, Regional
Source and Regional Seal).

Prospect Chance is divided into four categories: Reservoir, Migration, Seal and Trap.

Each category has one, two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This
is a "minimum element" scheme; the final category chance is the lowest of all the element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the Play Chance and Prospect Specific Chance:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(play) x P(prospect specific) + Amplitude modifier

P(play) = P(regional reservoir) x P(regional seal) x P(regional source)

P(prospect specific) = P(reservoir) x P(migration) x P(seal) x P(trap)

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

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2.2.12.1.14 Prospect Risking - Scheme 22/24

In this scheme there is only prospect specific chance.

Prospect chance is divided into three categories: Trap, Reservoir and Source.

Each category has two key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. The final category
chance is the multiplication of the two element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

2.2.12.1.15 Prospect Risking - Scheme 23

In this scheme, overall prospect chance has only prospect specific items.

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Prospect Chance is divided into five categories: reservoir, seal, structure, charge and recovery

Each category has two or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This is a
multiplicative scheme and the final category chance is the multiplication of all the element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the prospect specific risk elements:

Overall Prospect Chance = P100 = P(reservoir) x P(seal) x P(structure) x P(charge) x


P(recovery)

To each risk category you can also assign a confidence, based on your level of knowledge and supporting data.
The confidence can be plotted against chance in a plot:

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Tip: answer the question, the whole question and nothing but the question.

2.2.12.1.16 Prospect Risking - Scheme 25

In this scheme, overall prospect chance has only prospect specific items.

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Prospect Chance is divided into five categories: source, reservoir, trap, migration and seal

Each category has one or more key elements. You are required to assign a chance to each element. This is a
multiplicative scheme and the final category chance is the multiplication of all the element chances.

Individual chances are rounded to the nearest 5%.

The overall Prospect Chance is the multiplication of the prospect specific risk elements:

2.2.12.2 Risk table

Where you have a number of prospects and/or models loaded, it is useful to be able to see a table of
the risks in each of them.

The table is divided into 3 tabs (note that the dialogs you actually see will depend on the risking
scheme you are using):

A chance summary, which shows the play chance, prospect specific chance, GPOS and EPOS. This

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table cannot be edited, but by clicking a column header you can sort it.

The play chances: each category (and, where appropriate, sub-category) of play chance is shown.

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The prospect specific chances: each category (and, where appropriate, sub-category) of prospect
specific chance is shown.

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You can edit edit the chances in the play and prospect specific tables (which will of course update the
summary table).

Also in the play and prospect specific tables you can:

• right click in the column header and set a chance to be applied to all prospects and models in the
table.

• right click in a specific cell in the table, and copy this chance to all entries above, all below or all
entries.

2.2.13 Economic Cut-offs

An economic cut-off allow you to define minimum amounts of recoverable oil and gas which must be
discovered for a field to be economic. You may define a cut-off for oil or gas or both. If either cut-off
exceeded, the result is an "economic success".

The liquids phase used can be either recoverable oil, condensate liquids, total recoverable oil or BOE. The gas
phase can be recoverable gas, gas from condensate or total recoverable gas.

The reserve used in the calculation is the whole trap number. When you are looking at a results graph, the
cut-off is shown as a vertical line. If the graph is showing whole trap reserves, the line will be in the right
place. If you are showing "company share" data, the line will still be in the right place, but it will be at the cut-

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off times company share (NRI).

See 'Understanding the Results' for a discussion of how the results presentation is modified if you use an
economic cut-off.

Some people consider that using an economic cut-off in a reserves calculation is inappropriate and even
dangerous. Usually such people are financial analysts who think the topic of money is beyond a mere
geoscientist. For this reason you can disable cut-off application and entry as part of the Site Customization
section, refer to the 'Installation Options' help page for more information on how to do this.

Important note: do not put zero volumes! If you put zero for gas and there is no gas, it will fail the test.

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Oil

Cut-off Enter the economic cut-off (minimum) for oil. Leave blank (not zero!) if you don't want to set a cut-off for
liquids.

Apply to Apply the cut-off to oil or condensate or total liquids or BOE

Gas

Cut-off Enter the economic cut-off (minimum) for gas Leave blank (not zero!) if you don't want to set a cut-off for
gas.

Apply to Apply the cut-off to gas or gas from condensate or total gas

Units Select a new unit. Note that when you first bring up this dialog (or re-enter it) the economic cut-off units
are reset to those in which the results are being displayed.

Comments Enter a comment about the choice of cut-off.

2.2.14 Input Data Summary

This dialog consists of a single screen with a number of tabs. It allows you to edit all the input parameters.

The tabs are:

Active Variables

GRV Model (see Gross Rock Volume Entry)

Hydrocarbons (see Hydrocarbons)

Fluids: Options (see Fluids: Options)

Constants

Active Variables
In the Active Variables tab you see all the active variables, and a summary of their distributions, if entered.
The final column is titled "Edit", and if you click this you can edit (or enter, if the variable is not yet specified)
the distribution properties.

You can change the prospect model using the other tabs (change GRV entry, hydrocarbon type, etc). When
you change the model, the active variables are altered to reflect those variables required for the chosen model
combinations.

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Edit Click to view/edit the distribution

Dependencies Click to enter/edit variable dependencies

Top surface Click to see the top surface contours

Base surface Click to see the base surface

Sw/height Click to see the Sw/height curve

Economics Click to enter/edit economic parameters

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Constants

Net production Edit your net interest in revenue from this field/prospect. This is the company share.
interest

Initial Enter the initial condensate yield: this is used to calculate an "condensate-in-place"
condensate yield value for gas condensate reservoirs.

There is no "condensate-in-place" in a gas condensate reservoir, it is a gas - or


perhaps undifferentiated. Therefore we apologise.

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2.2.15 Prospect Models

Sometimes, you have different interpretations of data, only one of which may be correct. In prospect
calculations, different interpretations may relate to different hydrocarbons being present (oil, gas), different
trapping mechanisms (structural, stratigraphic) or different depletion strategies (water injection, primary
recovery). Creating different models is a much sounder strategy than smearing distributions to account for
different interpretations.

Each model is assigned a relative probability of occurrence - relative, that is, to all the other models. The sum
of all the model probabilities (chances) must be 100%.

In earlier versions of REP (pre v5.10) combining models was done using 'consolidation of mutually exclusive
events'. This option still exists, but using this models facility is much preferred.

File

Add a new Click to add a new model


model

Import a Click to import a model from a REP .ppr file


model

Delete Click to delete the selected model


model

Exit Click to exit Models dialog

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Edit

Move Up Move selected model up

Move Down Move selected model down

Demote Make the selected model a "child" of the model above it in the table. This means that
the selected model is only possible if its parent is "true".

Promote Remove the child status of the selected model

Show Click to show the risk decision tree

Chances

Use fixed The model relative chances are fixed.


chance

Target Makes the final GPOS the model GPOS for simple dependent model cases. In other
final cases this option is greyed out. See Dependent models: GPOS and model chance
GPOS below.

Use relative The relative chances are themselves probability distributions. This applies to all model
chance branches. See below for an example where this could be useful. To enter a chance
distributions distribution, click the drop arrow at the right of the model chance entry in the table.

Add all Each model must have a chance distribution. On every iteration, the distributions are
chances randomly sampled, the chances normalised an one model chosen at random. (In other
and words, the chance distributions are possibilities rather tha probabilities.)
normali
se

For two Where a branch of the model tree has two (and only two) model outcomes, you need
models, only enter one chance distribution - which must be for the first model.
use
only
the first
distribu
tion

Warning This warning box tells you when either the chances are not normalised (for fixed
entry chances) or when some chance distributions need to be entered (when using relative
chance distributions).

Normalise Click to normalise chances so they add up to 100% at each branch.

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Defining Models
When you define any new prospect, one model is created. To make another, go to Parameters | Models.

The window that appears shows the current models and the relative chance of each one. If there is only one
model the relative chance should be 100%, of course. To add a new model, click the [New] or the [Import]
button.

• [New] creates a new model by making a copy of the existing model. The existing model is indicated in the
list of models with the > symbol to the left of its name. Give the new model a relevant name and rename
the old one if necessary.

• [Import] will read an existing prospect file. Note that some prospect specific information (prospect ID
mostly) will not be imported. These data are discarded in favour of the current prospect's details.

To delete a model, click the [Delete] button. From the point of view of the calculations, setting its relative
chance to zero will have the same effect.

The [Normalise] button alters the relative chances so that they add up to 100%*.

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[*Note: The program will do this anyway at the beginning of any calculation.]

Viewing Models

In the prospect list on the left of the summary screen all the current prospects are shown. Prospects with more
than one model show the models as branches in the prospect list. The data shown in the summary screen
reflects that part of the prospect which is highlighted in the tree list.

If you have one of the models highlighted (or you click on it to highlight it), the summary screen data
shows the results of that model only.

If you have the prospect name highlighted, the summary screen data shows the results of the full
prospect calculation (all the models combined).

If some or all of your models have layers, these are shown as further branches in the tree and if you highlight
one of the layers the layer data will be shown in the summary screen.

Variable chances

There are some circumstances when using variable chances can be useful. One such is where the two
models represent different facies. You may have some statistics about the likely proportion of facies,
and the chance distribution can reflect this. In this case the two models represent the end members,
and the final result is the answer you want.

When using chance distributions, the model chances shown in the tree are the means of the
distributions, normalised across each branch.

Results

It is important to realize that different models can (and often will) have different geological risks as well as
different relative chances.

For example, you might consider that a given prospect has a 30% chance of being a structural trap and a 70%
chance of being a stratigraphic trap. You might also reckon that if the mechanism is structural then the chance
of a seal is 90% but if the mechanism is stratigraphic then the chance of a seal is only 60%. When REP
combines these 2 models it calculates the seal chance as the weighted average of the two models:

Final = (COSseal x model chance)|model1 + (COSseal x model chance)|model2

= (0.9 x 0.3) + (0.6 x 0.7)

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= 0.27 + 0.42

= 0.69

All the geological risk factors are combined in this way and they are multiplied through to give a geological
chance of success (GPOS) for the combined prospect.

The economic chance of success EPOS is only relevant to the combined prospect results since economic cut-
offs are only applied at a prospect level. In other words, individual models do not have an EPOS, only a GPOS.

If you have two models, one an oil case and the other a gas case, do not forget to define economic cut-offs for
both oil and gas (or neither). If, for example, you define an oil cut-off but not a gas cut-off then every gas
case realisation will fail the cut-off criterion because it has insufficient oil.

[Note: Remember that to pass the economic hurdles, either the gas volume must be greater than the gas cut-
off or the oil volume must be greater then the oil cut-off]

It should now be clear that when combining models in a prospect calculation you will have a GPOS, which is
the combination of the model GPOS's; and an EPOS, which is the chance of an economic success.

Both GPOS and EPOS tell of the chance of success of the prospect, they say nothing about models. It can get
confusing when you are looking at recoverable oil results for a prospect which could be either oil or gas. GPOS
and EPOS describe the chance of success of finding either oil or gas. But the oil numbers refer only to what
you discover if you discover oil. REP calculates a "Phase Chance", which is the chance of a particular phase
(hydrocarbon type) being discovered. Mostly, REP reports phase chance as a relative probability. For example,
in a prospect with a GPOS of 18% and an oil phase chance of 60%, the chance of discovering oil is:

Chance of oil = GPOS x Phase chance

= 0.18 x 0.6

= 0.108

Dependent models: GPOS and model chance

Where you have dependent models (one model depends on the success of another) the GPOS vs.
model risk becomes a bit complicated.

There are two ways to look at the chance of success of a particular model.

o The chance that the model will contain oil or gas, should the model be realised.

o The chance that should oil and gas gas be discovered, this model is the one realised.

Th first is the way that you should usually think about it, because (in a complicated system) the GPOS
describes the relative occurrence of the two model outcomes: success and failure. But in simple
dependent systems that's not always the way that you do think about it.

Consider the common case of a prospect with 4 way dip closure, but possibly a deeper fault seal. There
are two models - 4-way closure and deeper fault seal. If the deeper fault seal works, the 4-way closure
must also work. If the 4-way doesn't, the deeper seal cannot. So the fault seal is dependent on the 4-
way. Here's the tree view:

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There are three possible outcomes (bottom to top in the picture):

o The 4 way dip closure is dry - no hydrocarbon at all

o The 4-way works, but the closure against the fault doesn't

o The fault seal works, so so does the 4-way.

Now consider the GPOS's. As entered by the user (for we are optimists, at Logicom E&P) the 4-way is
45%, and the fault seal 20%. There is no confusion with 4 way, and this is the controlling chance of
success for the prospect. But the 20% GPOS for the fault seal assumes that the 4-way works. From the
outcome boxes, you can see that there is overall only a 9% chance (=0.45 x 0.2) that the fault seal will
work. A bit different to the 20% the user might have expected.

The purpose of the check box labelled "Target final GPOS" is to modify the effective GPOS of the
dependent model so that the final chance of the fault seal working is 20%:

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The top box on the right now shows 20%, which is the original GPOS of the fault seal model. The 4-way
works in the top two boxes, the sum of which is 45%, as entered.

Targeting the final GPOS can only work in simple cases such as the above. When it cannot work, the
option is greyed out. Then you must check the model tree and make sure that the chances of each final
outcome are as you want.

2.2.16 Prospect Layers

In mature areas it is sometimes the case that you know the reservoirs so well that, even if a prospect is
undrilled, the likely reservoir subdivisions are sufficiently well known to be separately modelled. In this case
you can divide your prospect into separate reservoir layers.

There are three geometrical configurations.

Seal at top layer: layers are one below the other and the top of the top layer and the base seal are
everywhere coincident.

Unconformity trap: a structural configuration where multiple reservoir layers are unconformably
overlain by a top seal.

Top and base envelope: same as seal at top layer, but you also enter a base surface (envelope) which

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everywhere defines the vertical extent of the reservoir

For each case, you must have an area/depth table. For the first, you must choose the "top surface and
reservoir thickness" GRV option. For the second you should have "top and base surfaces" (though top surface
and reservoir thickness will also work).

Each layer has distinct probability distributions for:

• Thickness

• Porosity, net-to-gross and water saturation (or Sw-height function).

• Recovery factor

All the other properties (area/depth table [in the case of the first configuration], contacts/spill points, fluid
properties (1/Bg, Bo) etc.) are the same for all layers, and are taken from the first layer you enter.

Note that in all these layer options there is one hydraulic unit - one water contact applied to all layers. If you
have reservoirs with separate water contacts (or differing chances of discovering hydrocarbons) you must use
consolidations.

If you have defined surface shifts (top reservoir or base seal), these are also taken from the first layer; all
lower layer shifts are ignored.

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Configuration

Seal at top layer Click for stacked layers (one below the other)

Unconformity trap Single trap, unconformably overlain by a top seal

Top and base envelope Same as seal at top layer, but you also enter a base surface
(envelope) which everywhere defines the vertical extent of the
reservoir

Layers

New.. Click to add new layer

Import.. Click to import layer from a REP .ppr file

Up Click to move selected layer up

Down Click to move selected layer down

Delete Click to delete selected layer

View/edit >> Click to view/edit selected layer properties

Entering Layers
First you must enter the top layer as if it was a stand-alone prospect. Remember, if you are modelling the first
configuration you must use "top surface and reservoir thickness" for GRV input.

To enter more layers and to edit the ones you have already defined go to Parameters | Layers. A list of the
current layers is shown in the table.

To enter a new layer, click the [New..] button. Then enter Layer thickness, Porosity, NTG and SW and finally
recovery factors as usual. By default, all the layer properties are copied from the previous layer. The new layer
is added on the bottom of the list.

You can also import a layer from an existing REP file. Click [Import..]. This is particularly useful if you have
REP4 files where layering could be done but only by using consolidations. You can only import one layer at a
time. If you import a multi-layer REP 5 file, only one layer from the input file will be retrieved.

Rename layers by over-typing their names in the table. You can also move layers up and down by using the
[Up] and [Down] buttons. When you do this, the area/depth table and all the other common layer properties
are copied from the old top layer to the new top layer.

To edit layer properties, click in the table on the layer you want to edit and then click the [View/edit >>]
button. This will take you through the sequence of thickness, porosity, NTG, etc.

If you just want to look at one property for all layers then bring up the required distribution for any layer. If

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you then click another layer in the list on the left of the main Prospects/fields window, the entry screen will
update with the chosen layer properties.

Running The Calculation / Viewing The Results


Just run the calculation as normal. At the end, the results for all layers will be displayed in the Prospect/fields
window. To view individual layer results, click the layer in the prospect list.

Hard Copy Results


When you do a print summary, only results for all layers are shown. To get a layer-by-layer summary, go to
Print | Pages (or Print Preview | Pages) and check the layer summary entry.

2.3 Entering probability distributions

This section is in four parts:

What is a Probability Distribution?

Probability Distribution Shapes

Entering Distributions

Distribution styles

Copying Distributions.

You may also want to refer to the section 'Input Variables'.

Since almost all of the numbers used by the program in its calculations are in the form of probability
distributions, it is important to understand them. Here is the standard dialog for entering all the
probability distributions in REP.

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Name The name of variable

Unit The unit of variable

Shape The shape of the probability distribution (normal, log-normal, beta, triangular etc.)

Units Click to set the unit for the variable. On the pop-up dialog, note the "convert values" check
box. If you have entered values in the wrong unit, uncheck the box and set the new
(correct) unit). The values remain unchanged, just the unit is set. If the box is checked,
any entered values are converted from the old unit to the new one.

Style Click to change the entry method for normal, log-normal, beta and triangular shapes. Each
has its own options - see Styles below

Ins. Click to enter a new line in the table: this is used only for histogram distributions.

Del. Click to delete selected line in the table: this is used only for histogram distributions.

=100 Click to normalise the sum of probabilities to 100%: used only in histogram distributions.

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Reality.. Click to draw a reality plot of the probability distribution. A reality plot shows the
probability distribution with the variable value on the x-axis using a log scale and the
probability on the y-axis using a probability scale. If the shape of the variable is log-
normal, the data will make a straight line. Reality plots for input variables are only quite
interesting.

Clip Check to use clipping (truncation) See below for a full discussion

(Clip) Min Enter a minimum limit to which to truncate the distribution

(Clip) Max Enter a maximum limit to which to truncate the distribution

Comments Enter any comments

Copy.. Copy distribution elsewhere - to other prospects or models.

What is a Probability Distribution?

A probability distribution describes the chance that a parameter will have a particular value on any one
occasion. There are two ways of defining a distribution:

• A cumulative probability distribution describes, for each possible value of the parameter, the
chance that this value will be exceeded.

• A relative probability distribution describes, for each possible value of the parameter, how much
more or less likely it is to occur than any other value of the parameter.

Any probability distribution can be defined by either of the above methods. Given one, you can
calculate the other. Which one is used is a matter of convenience. Generally, simple distributions are
most easily described as relative and more complicated ones, as cumulative. Either way, the distribution
is most easily visualised as a line on a graph where the possible parameter values are plotted along the
x-axis and the probabilities - cumulative or relative - are plotted along the y-axis.

The well-known P90, P50 and P10 (or any other P) are values of the parameter (x-axis) corresponding
to cumulative probabilities (y-axis) on the cumulative probability graph. REP follows the common
convention that P100 is the minimum value (i.e. all possible values of the parameter must be greater
than this) and that P0 is the maximum value. P90 corresponds to a 'downside' or 'proven' level, P10 an
'upside' or 'possible' level and P50 is that value of the parameter which is as likely to be exceeded as
not.

The most likely value (also known as the mode) is the single value most likely to occur, and is the value
of the parameter corresponding to the maximum relative probability on the relative probability curve.

Note: REP treats all probability distributions as continuous rather than discrete so, strictly speaking, the
probability of any single value occurring is infinitesimally small. This is because between any given
minimum and maximum values there are an infinitely large number of possible choices. One should

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really talk about the probability of a value falling in a given range. For example, if the parameter is
porosity and the range of porosities is 10-18%, there are any number of possible single values falling in
this range - just increase the number of digits after the decimal point. So rather than considering that
the probability of porosity is 15.0%, you should really be considering that the probability will be
between - say - 14.95% and 15.05%. In fact, REP takes an input distribution and divides it up into
ranges ("bins"), assigning to each bin a single value to represent the range. Each input distribution has
100 bins.

Probability Distribution Shapes

When you enter a probability distribution in REP you can choose either to enter one of a number of
well-defined relative probability distributions or a general cumulative distribution. Your choice is the
shape of the distribution and may be one of the following:

Single

The parameter may take one value only.

This distribution should only be used when the value is truly defined - a model assumption. A common
example is degree of fill. The excess charge theory (which is not universally accepted and not
everywhere applied by those who do) dictates that there is always more charge than the trap can
accommodate. Therefore, the degree of fill is 100%, by definition.

Example of Single Distribution shape

Triangular

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This is a relative distribution with three points. As part of the customization of the program you may
choose to specify a triangular distribution in one of 2 ways: enter either minimum, most likely (mode)
and maximum or P90, most likely and P10. But note that entering as P90, mode and P10 can give rise
to problems. In order to calculate the minimum and maximum of the distribution, the most likely must
be between the P90 and P10 values - which may not be the case. Also, the program must solve a
polynomial of degree 4, and it may not be able to do this in every case. If you get unhappy
distributions, click the [Style..] button to revert to the min - mode - max entry style.

The triangular distribution is very commonly used, partly because it is has well defined limits, and is
quickly entered. Also, the way people often think is: it is probably that, bigger than this, and smaller
than the other - very triangular. It is better to use a normal (or perhaps log-normal distribution), since
these reflect better the underlying physical distributions, and perhaps also your uncertainty of them.
You should avoid using it for very skewed distributions or when you are unsure of the minimum and
maximum values or when the most likely value is not well defined.

Example of Triangular Distribution shape

Normal

This is a symmetric distribution defined by two points, commonly the most likely (which for this
symmetrical distribution is also the mean and P50) and the P10. As part of the customization of the
program you may choose to specify a normal (and log-normal) distribution in one of 5 ways: P50/P10
(as above), P90/P50, P90/P10, P99/P1 or a custom pair of P levels. See Styles below. When you enter
the distribution, the other "P" levels are calculated and displayed.

Note: Theoretically there is no P100 or P0 in a normal distribution; any value is possible but very low or
very large values have negligible probabilities. And, indeed, REP ignores them, setting 'effective'
minima and maxima at 3 standard deviations from the mean.

The normal distribution is very common in nature. For example, it is generally accepted that porosity
distributions in a basin tend to be normal. To the extent that your input distributions should reflect
underlying natural distributions it is right to use it. Where you know that the uncertainty is

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approximately symmetric it is definitely a recommended shape. It is much more satisfactory than the
triangular or rectangular.

Example of Normal Distribution shape

Log-normal

This is a skewed distribution commonly described by the P50 (which, since this is a skewed distribution,
is not equal to the mean or to the mode) and the P10. The entry customization described above for the
normal distribution applies also to the log-normal distribution.

Note: Theoretically, the P100 of a log-normal distribution is +0. and there is no maximum. As with the
normal distribution, REP clips the distribution to 3 standard deviations from the mean. If you take the
logarithm of the values of the parameter then the log-normal distribution becomes a normal
distribution.

The log-normal distribution is very commonly used and some experts recommend it for everything. It
is possible that they do this to try to overcome a noted problem, which is that people tend to
underestimate the range. Because the log-normal goes on for ever (subject to REP clipping its extrema)
it certainly extends the range over defined distributions such as the triangular. However, this would be
tackling the problem the wrong way and the issue of overconfidence is now so well known it is
becoming less of an concern. The same experts also quote the central limits theorem, which states that
multiplicative processes tend to give log-normal distributions. An example of this is reservoir thickness,
being the product of (at least) deposition rate and time of deposition. They forget that "tends to" and
"is" are different things and anyway that a distribution models uncertainty (which is a human not a
natural phenomenon, and is just as likely to be normal) rather than natural occurrence. It can also be
strongly argued that to use a log-normal distribution for porosity, net-to-gross ratio, Sw, formation
volume factors and recovery factor is wrong, not least because all of these have inverses (non-net-to
gross, hydrocarbon saturation, unrecovered fraction etc.) which could also be log-normal - but they
cannot both be. Therefore this over-hyped distribution should be used with care.

Having said that there are circumstances where log-normal is certainly the right shape to use - field

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size distribution in play fairway analysis* and GRV used as a single distribution are good examples.

If you do use it, it is worthwhile checking the P99 and P1 values. These should correspond
approximately to the very smallest and the very biggest values that you think the parameter can take. If
they are not sensible, change the distribution.

*Though field size distribution is not always log-normal. Apparent lognormality can arise because of
economic cut-offs. Uneconomic fields are not usually reported.

Example of Log-normal Distribution shape

Beta

This is a relative distribution described by three points: minimum most likely and maximum. It fits a
smooth curve between these points which looks similar to the normal or log-normal shapes. It can be
argued that the beta is a good compromise between the stability of the triangular distribution and the
intuitive "rightness" of the normal and log-normal distributions.

Parameters:

Xmin: minimum value

Xmax: maximum value

Mode: mode value

λ: a sharpness factor (default 4.0)

The above parameters are used to calculate two shape factors from which the distribution is calculated:

a: shape factor (a>0)

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b: shape factor (b>0)

If you wish to change λ, click the "Style" button next to the shape entry on the input variable dialog, or
the More.. button in the PDF calculator dialogs. Increasing λ will sharpen up the distribution,
decreasing it will make it ever more stodgy.

a and b can be calculated from Xmin, Xmax, Mode and λ

The Beta distribution is defined as follows:

, � is the gamma function

Example of Beta Distribution shape, λ=4444.0

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Rectangular

This is a relative distribution described by two points: minimum and maximum. All values between
minimum and maximum are equally likely. A rectangular distribution is sometimes called a uniform
distribution.

It is not recommended to use this shape on the very obvious grounds that at the minimum and
maximum there are sudden jumps where the probability jumps from "the same as all the rest" to "no
chance at all". There are very few occasions when this is justifiable. A normal (or if you feeling
abandoned, a log-normal) is preferred.

Example of Rectangular Distribution shape

House

A form of triangular distribution, with the triangle extremities clipped. Although statistically
unsatisfactory, it does alleviate bunching around the most likely value, which is often considered a flaw
in triangular distributions.

The house shape is a popular improvement on the triangular shape, because it spreads the uncertainty
further out. However, it is almost always better to use a normal or log-normal.

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Example of House Distribution shape

Histogram

A stepped distribution which allows you to mirror actual data values (though this is not necessarily a
good thing to do).

The histogram has one huge advantage, which is that it can model bi-modal or multi-modal
distributions. This is useful for things like spill point. But a bimodal distribution of observed or
expected values usually points to model mixing. For example, a bimodal porosity distribution might be
indicative of two porosity or facies types - it would be better to have two reservoir models. See Models

Another fundamental problem with the histogram is shared with the rectangular: at a boundary of the
histogram, a small change in value can mean a large change in probability, which is clearly counter-
intuitive. In conclusion, the histogram is invaluable in some circumstances but in most cases it is better
to use models.

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Example of Histogram Distribution shape

User Cumulative

A general cumulative distribution in which you must enter the minimum and maximum values of the
parameter, and then assign cumulative probabilities to as many intermediate values as you like. In
effect, you draw the cumulative probability curve by specifying points on the line (and REP will join up
the points using straight lines).

The table has two columns, probability and value. You must start with the lowest value (P100) and end
with the highest (P0). For example:

Probability Value

100 20

90 40

70 50

40 86

10 128

0 160

User Relative

Similar to the user cumulative but a relative distribution.

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Entering Distributions

The variable entry screen is similar for all probability distribution entries. You specify the shape and
then enter the numbers required to define the curve.

For a rectangular distribution you enter min. and max.; for triangular, enter min., mode and max. or
P90, mode and P10; for normal and log-normal enter P50 and P10 (or as otherwise specified in the
program customization); for single enter the mode (which is also the min. and max.).

With triangular, normal and log-normal distributions you can change the entry style by clicking the
"Style.." Button

For histograms and user distributions you must fill in the table of P levels and parameter values. For
user-cum, the P levels (column Prob.) must start at 100 and decrease, and the parameter values
(column Value) must increase. Click the Sort button to sort the lines into the right order.

For histogram and user relative distributions the parameter values must increase down the table but
the probability levels need not. In these distributions, the probability levels are relative and need not
add up to 100 (the program will adjust everything).

The graph on the right of the screen shows the distribution with the key points highlighted. You can
click and drag the key points to new locations. For poly distributions double click to add new points
into the curve and double-click existing points to remove them.

Note: There is often some confusion as to the meaning of minimum and maximum. Explorationists
sometimes consider the minimum value of a parameter to be the one which will give the smallest
result, thus the minimum value of SW when SW must lie between 20% and 45% is 45% because this
will give the smallest hydrocarbon reserve.

For consistency (and to avoid confusing users working for the water companies) REP always considers
the minimum value of any parameter to be the smallest numerical value that the parameter can take. In
the Sw example above, the minimum Sw is 20%, because 20 is a smaller number than 45.

REP will check an entered distribution for obvious inconsistencies. It will not allow you to enter a net-
to-gross ratio of less than 0% or more than 100%, for example. When entering normal and log-normal
distributions REP calculates the effective P100 and P0 (see above under the description of the normal
distribution) and checks that these fall within the normal parameter limits.

Clipping

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With the clip check box checked, the variable value is truncated between the minimum and maximum
values entered. You can leave either value blank, and it is not used.

The way it works during the calculation is as follows. At each iteration, values are chosen for all the
input variables according to the probability distribution (or according to the dependency relation, if a
dependency is being used). If any of the variable values falls outside of the clipping limits, that iteration
is discarded and new values chosen. If more than 40% of all iterations are discarded because of
clipping, the calculation is stopped and a null result returned: you need to go back and revisit the
distributions to reduce the amount of clipping.

The issue with clipping is that it alters the effective distribution. What you enter as the P50 (for
example) will not be the P50 once the clipping has taken place. Severe clipping makes the difference
important.

On the other hand, normal and log-normal distributions go on "for ever", and if you happen to be
using one of these for porosity, for example, clipping to reasonable values (such as 2 - 40%) is a
reasonable action.

Styles

You can enter some distributions in different ways - click the Style button to change how you do it.
Styles can be different for different variables with the same shape.

Triangular and beta distributions are normally (sic) entered as minimum, mode (most likely) and
maximum. But you can also enter P90, mode and P10. The value of the mode must lie between the P90
and P10 values. This is a REP requirement rather than a mathematical one. For example, in a right-
angled triangle skewed to the right, the mode is less than P90. If you want to enter such a distribution
into REP you must use minimum-mode-maximum.

Min/Mode/ Choose which style you want


Max etc.

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Set as Set the chosen style as the default for all future entries of a variable with this shape.
default

Log-normal and normal distributions are specified by any two points on the distribution. The most
common pairs are P50/P10, P90/P10, P90/P50 and P99/P1. But you can choose any pair you like. Click
the style button to show the dialog:

P50/P10 Choose which style you want.


etc.
[Note: There is an increasing body of opinion that holds that you should use the P99 and
P1 to enter normal and, particularly, log-normal distributions. This is because it is
considered difficult for most people to estimate "central" values correctly; an absolute
minimum (P99) and an absolute maximum (P1) are more readily and accurately quantified.
A number of experimental studies are said to confirm this hypothesis. It must be said that
this theorem is not obviously true and I am grateful to Dr Mike Treesh, an expert in this
field, for the trenchant observation that if you want to determine the average height of a
population you do not go hunting for the shortest and tallest people in it, for very obvious
reasons.]

Custom If you choose this one, enter the two P levels you want to enter. "Low value" and "High
value" refer to the variable value, so the "Low value P" is the probability level of the low
variable value, the "High value P" the probability level of the high variable value. The P
level of the low value should be greater than the P value of the high value. Obviously.

Either of these custom P values can be one of the standard ones - i.e. 99, 90, 50, 10 or 1.
So you could use P50/P15.

Always Check this to show the custom P values on the entry dialog, even if you are using one of
show these the pre-set styles.
values

Set as Set the chosen style as the default for all future entries of a variable with this shape.
default

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Copying Distributions

It is possible to copy a distribution to another prospect or model. See 'Copying Distributions to Other
Models or Prospects' for more information.

2.3.1 Input Variables

Notes are available on the following input variables:

GRV as a Single Variable

Shape Factor

Degree of Fill

Area, Thickness and Shape Factor

Area Uncertainty

Porosity

Water Saturation

Oil Formation Volume Factor and Gas Expansion Factor

Inerts

See also 'Entering Probability Distributions' for a general discussion on probability distributions.

Input variable summary

The input variable summary shows all the current active variables and their key values:

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Click on the edit column to enter/edit the probability distributions for any variable. Other tabs show
the set-up for the current prospect/model/layer, and the buttons at the bottom take you to the various
input dialogs.

2.3.1.1 Gross Rock Volume

See also 'Gross Rock Volume' and 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

The single gross rock volume distribution is generally only used when the numbers are derived from a
geological modelling or mapping package.

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When considering the likely range, bear in mid (a) that GRV is usually the single biggest uncertainty in
prospect calculations and that (b) the considerable literature on this topic suggests that it is very easy to be
overconfident in your assessment of it.

2.3.1.2 Shape Factor

See also 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

The Shape Factor term in the Area-Thickness-Shape factor model for gross rock volume is there to account for
geometrical and edge effects.

Suppose you have a perfectly hemispherical reservoir of radius r. The area on the map (looking down from
above) is pi.r.r. If you multiply by a thickness h you get the volume of a cylinder pi.r.r.h. Since we assume it is
a hemisphere, then h=r and the volume is pi.r.r.r.

But we know that the reservoir volume is actually that in the hemisphere, which is 2/3.pi.r.r.r. So in this case
the shape factor is 2/3, or 0.67. In the case of a pyramid, the shape factor is 1/3, or 0.33.

In both of these cases, it is assumed that the reservoir thickness is at least as big as the closure (the closure
being defined as the depth from the highest point in the reservoir to the water contact).

If the reservoir is less than the closure, the shape factor is higher. When the reservoir is very thin compared to
closure the shape factor is almost 1.0

The figure below can be used to estimate the shape factor. Work out the ratio of reservoir thickness to closure,
look that up on the y-axis, go across to the shape you have, and read the shape factor on the x-axis. The
problem is: what is the shape? With the hemispherical reservoir above, you would probably say: my reservoir
is like a dome, so I'll use the dome shape. And the figure says that for a reservoir thickness/closure of 1.0, the
shape factor is 0.33. But we just worked it out to be 0.67. So using the figure you are wrong by a factor of 2.

The moral of this is: only use area/thickness/shape factor for GRV when the reservoir is thin compared to
closure (i.e. shape factor is nearly 1.0); or you have so little data you have no choice. If you do have data, use
the area/depth model and get it right!

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2.3.1.3 Degree of Fill

See also 'Entering probability distributions'.

Degree of fill is one of those topics which can cause vigorous discussion.

One school of thought - the "excess charge" advocacy - considers that there is always so much potential
hydrocarbon charge that any structure will be full to the spill point (always assuming that there is any, of
course). By this theory, if a structure is not full to what you consider the spill point, then you have probably
got the wrong spill point.

The alternative school allows that structures may not be full to spill, because of leakage through the seal or
perhaps some other mechanism. It is possible to calculate the strength of a seal and therefore to estimate
what pressure differential (which you can equate with hydrocarbon column) the seal will support.

Of course, the excess charge school recognizes seal problems but mostly argue that these considerations are
of second order in a prospect evaluation and always hard to quantify. So they set the degree of fill to a single
value of 100%, and think deeply about the spill point.

The maybe-not-full school allows for a variable degree of fill and may or may not give such profound study to

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the spill point issue.

2.3.1.4 Area, Thickness and Shape Factor

See also 'Gross Rock Volume' and 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

Entering GRV using area, depth and shape factor is most commonly done in two circumstances:

1. When no structural mapping has been done (i.e. at a very early stage in the prospect generation).

2. When the reservoir is very thin compared to the closure, so that the edge and geometric effects are
negligible.

GRV = Area x Thickness x Shape factor

The shape factor is a geometrical multiplier to allow for edge and other geometrical irregularities. The table
below gives the factor for various basic shapes, as a function of reservoir thickness divided by closure. It is
approximate, and of course the basic shapes given will in most cases only approximate the reality of your
reservoir.

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2.3.1.5 Area Uncertainty

See also 'Gross Rock Volume' and 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

Area uncertainty should be used when the GRV calculations are from an area/depth table (probably from a
digitized map).

This diagram shows how area uncertainly works, in comparison to the other uncertainties in GRV (which are
mapping shifts and spill point/hydrocarbon contact.) It is the uncertainty in area for a given contour depth. It
is expressed as a percentage error.

The area uncertainty distribution will usually be symmetrical, with a mean value of 100%. It need not be
symmetrical and if it is not then there will be a consistent bias in the calculated GRV, compared to the GRV
derived from the area/depth table numbers.

Beta and normal shapes are commonly used.

The spread of the distribution depends on the quality of the mapping - basic data quality, whether it is 2D or
3D, integrity of depth conversion and so on. No doubt the skill and track record of the interpreter should also
be considered.

As a rule of thumb, maps based on good quality 3D data will have an area uncertainty P90 - P10 of 90% -
110%. If the data are poor, then this may increase to 80% - 120%. 2D data can be 70% - 130% or more.

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Faced with a map (and especially if you did not make it yourself) the tendency is always to believe it more
than you should do. You need to talk to the people who created it and get them to talk you through its
strengths and weaknesses.

2.3.1.6 Porosity

See also 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

Porosity is not normally a key uncertainty in reserves calculations (although of course it can be). In fact, if
your Tornado Plot of the most uncertain variables shows porosity in the top three, then you should certainly be
asking yourself if you have been overconfident with other variables.

Among the things to consider are: depth degradation (and linkage with structural closure or spill point),
possible trends across the field affecting the field-wide average and validity of analogues in the light of the
geological model.

2.3.1.7 Water Saturation (Sw)

See also 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

In REP, you enter Sw (water saturation) and not Shc (hydrocarbon saturation). The program will use (1-Sw) in
the calculations. But in the probability distribution you enter, the P90 will correspond to a higher reserves case
than the P10. This confuses some people, but only at first.

There is often considerable uncertainty in Sw and serious error in what is entered into REP.

Many thousands of petrophysical man-hours have been used up calculating Sw by any number of equations.
From the point of view of hydrocarbons-in-place the differences between the answers are usually small
compared with other uncertainties - gross rock volume, for example. Doubling Sw from 15% to 30% is a
reduction in hydrocarbon saturation from 85% to 70% - a decrease in volume of only 18%. (There may be an
equal or greater effect on recovery factor, however.)

So very often the calculation (or estimation) of a particular saturation is not a big problem. But when you ask
a petrophysicist what is the likely or observed water saturation in a field the answer will often be the residual
saturation above any transition zone. If there is a only a short transition zone, or if there is considerable
structural closure, then this is a good value to guide you. But where this is not the case (and as reservoirs
become smaller and more complex this is increasingly common) then you need to be rather careful.

You should also remember that in many traps the trap volume does not increase linearly with depth - in such
cases far more of the reservoir volume is closer to the hydrocarbon contact than to the structural crest.

So here is the first question you should answer: is there an observed or likely transition zone and if so will it
have an effect on the reserves calculation at any possible spill point or fluid contact? If not, you will confer

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with the petrophysicist and enter a likely range in Sw; the pert distribution is recommended. But if there is,
you have two options:

1. Define a dependency (See 'Variable Dependencies') between Sw and spill point (or water contact). This
will be a negative dependency; as spill point increases, Sw decreases. You may need to do some back-
of-the-envelope calculations to work out suitable ranges in Sw, always remembering that you are
entering average Sw over the whole reservoir volume.

2. Use the Sw-height (See 'Water Saturation Height Functions') option for Sw. Although this may mask
some of the primarily petrophysical uncertainties (though you can use the Sw-Ht error function to model
these) it will account far better for transition zone effects.

The effect of using an Sw-height function is to decrease reserve when the hydrocarbon column is small -
decreasing your mean value, and significantly decreasing your P90 value. But better to be forewarned of this
than have a nasty surprise when you drill the well.

It is noted in the literature that overestimation of small prospects and overestimation of the downside in all
prospects is very common; and this commonly ascribed to natural bias and a desire by geoscientists not to be
working on prospects which will never be drilled. However, there is little doubt that mishandling Sw is also a
contributing factor.

2.3.1.8 Oil Formation Volume Factor

See also 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

Oil formation factor Bo accounts for the volume contraction of the oil as it moves from reservoir conditions to
surface conditions, caused primarily by the liberation of dissolved gas. Bo is a number greater than 1.0:

Bo = {volume occupied at reservoir conditions} / {volume occupied at standard (stock tank)


conditions}

Standard correlations are available to estimate Bo. These correlations may or may not be accurate and it is
always best to use real data if you have it, or to pester your friendly reservoir engineer. This is especially true
if your reservoir has high pressure and temperatures, or an unusually light or heavy oil.

In the volumetrics equation, Bo is in the denominator: REP makes the adjustment, and you should always
enter it as a number greater than 1.0.

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2.3.1.9 Gas Expansion Factor

See also 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

The gas expansion factor (1/Bg) accounts for the volume expansion of the gas it moves from reservoir
conditions to surface conditions, caused by the reduction in pressure - though partially counterbalanced by the
decrease in temperature:

Exp = 1/Bg = {volume occupied at surface conditions} / {volume occupied at reservoir conditions}

Standard correlations are available to estimate 1/Bg. These correlations may or may not be accurate and it is
always best to use real data if you have it. This is especially the case in high pressure / high temperature
environments.

Surface or standard conditions are set by the local regulatory agency, or maybe the gas buyer: REP assumes
that surface conditions are 60 degF and 14.7 psia, which is commonly the case, or at any rate near enough to
be accurate in a REP context. But if in doubt, check with your reservoir engineer - nothing so pleases these
pedants as to put a non-engineer right on a point of definition, and is always wise to nip this sort of thing in
the bud. You can change the surface conditions in the correlations section.

2.3.1.10 Inerts

See also 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

Inert gas (usually nitrogen, carbon dioxide or hydrogen sulphide) can fill the pore space but does not
contribute to the hydrocarbon reserve:

Gas-in-Place = Net hydrocarbon pore volume x (100-%Inerts) x Gas expansion factor

Recoverable gas = GIP x Gas recovery factor

Note: The Gas expansion factor refers to the hydrocarbon gas (though getting this wrong is unlikely to make a
significant difference, in a REP context).

2.3.2 Copying Distributions to Other Models or Prospects

You can copy distributions from one model or prospect to other models or loaded prospects.

To do this, load up the prospects (or file with multiple models) to which you wish to copy particular
distributions. Go to the distribution you wish to copy, either from the input data menu items, or from the input
data summary dialog. Click the [Copy..] button. The following will appear:

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First click one of the options on the left side - "To models", "To loaded prospects in the play", or "To loaded
prospects".

The list on the right is populated with the models or prospects which meet the criteria:

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The current prospect or model is shown in red. Any prospect which is not using the variable being copied (e.g.
a gas case will not have an oil formation volume factor) is shown in grey.

Ensure the ones you want to copy to are checked and then click [Copy].

If you want to copy several distributions it is best to go to the input data summary table. By clicking
successively on the variables in the table, the Variable entry dialog and the Copy distribution dialog are
updated: just go on clicking the [Copy] button and the job is done in no time.

Copy to

Copy to Choose where to copy distribution to

Options

Set all Check all other models/prospects

Unset all Un-check all other models/prospects

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2.4 Understanding the results

Understanding the results is by no means the easiest part of using REP. It can be even harder to explain
what they mean to others. This section makes a brief attempt.

The important thing to remember is that for undrilled prospects (i.e. where the chance of success is less
than 100%) there are two numbers AT LEAST which must be used to describe the possible outcomes.
These are: chance of success and, in the case of success, some measure of volume. Most commonly,
the measure of volume used is the mean; some prefer the P50 or median. REP calculates these and all
the other P levels (P90, P10 etc.) and these should always be to hand.

The results of prospect/field evaluations, play analysis and consolidations are similar in presentation.
On the results sheet you will find a numerical summary, and a graph.

The graph has two curves: the cumulative probability distribution, which starts on the left at 100%
probability, and drops to the right to 0%. The other curve, usually a distorted bell-shape, is the relative
probability distribution. These two curves have the same meaning for input as for output and are
discussed, in the former context, in the section titled 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

From the cumulative curve you can read the probability that a particular reserve level will be exceeded.
On the reserves (x) axis choose the reserve level, and read off on the probability (y)-axis the probability
that this value will be exceeded. Alternatively, work the other way to discover, for any probability level,
the associated reserves. The numerical values for unrisked P90, P50 and P10 shown in the table are
simply readings from the cumulative probability curve.

Note that REP only shows the unrisked curve: earlier versions of the program also showed the risked
curve, and tabulated values of risked P90, P50 and P10. These were removed, because they tended to
cause confusion.

The relative probability curve is rather less useful, but its shape does give an idea of the uncertainly
associated with the calculations. The tighter the shape, the less the uncertainty. The highest point of
the curve is the mode, or value most likely to occur. The mode should not be confused with the mean,
which is the average of all the iteration results.

You can think of the relative probability curve as a histogram of the results of each Monte-Carlo
iteration. Note that the curve does not have a particular y-axis scale, and in fact REP adjusts it so that
the modal value always corresponds to a y-axis value of 75. For presentation reasons it is highly
smoothed.

The mathematical relationship between the two curves on the graph is that the cumulative curve is the
integration of the relative probability curve.

Most calculations of reserves result in a skewed distribution, tending to log-normal shape. In this case,
the mode is less than the P50, which is less than the mean. This begs the question: if one value is to be
used, which one should it be? Most commentators prefer the mean and this seems to be generally
used in the industry; however, some people do prefer to use the P50, especially in the case of proven
reserves. The mode is never considered; but given the fact that all the studies that I know of show that
companies overestimate their expected discoveries by a factor of about 50%, perhaps more

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consideration should be given to its use.

In general it is true to say that the difference between the mean and the P50 is due to the "romance"
of the prospect. Most geologists like to include in their thinking the possibility, however remote, of
wonderful success. This very high risk, very high outcome case affects the mean much more than the
P50. Perhaps this is why you will often find engineers and accountants using the P50 and
explorationists using the mean. The problem for the engineers and accountants is that every now and
again (and often to their chagrin), the romance case is realised (to an engineer, there is nothing in the
world more irritating than an explorationist who has been proven pessimistic).

One measure of how much romance is in the air is the probability level at the mean, shown on the
table of results ("P-level at mean"). It will normally be around 35-45 %, If it is lower than this, you
should be asking the question, 'if I only have a one-in-three (or less) chance of achieving the mean, is
the mean the right figure to use?'

The risked mean (also known as the expectation) is the product of the unrisked mean and the
geological chance of success. It is an unpopular figure with some people. Indeed, they say that anyone
who uses this number should be locked up and if they additionally use the term expectation then the
key should be thrown away! The present writer considers this to be harsh but fair. The reasons for the
custodial sentence are, firstly, that risk (chance of success) and reward (discovered volume) are quite
separate issues - almost orthogonal - and both must be considered. Only if you are rather stupid and
cannot grasp two numbers at the same time should it be necessary to fudge things and multiply them
together. Secondly, it a number without physical meaning (and especially without anything to do with
expectation). For example, you could have a prospect with a minimum reserve of 20bcf, an unrisked
mean of 50bcf and a chance of success of 10%. The risked mean is therefore 5bcf, less than the
minimum possible. This can really irk the purist.

The risked mean is used for prospect ranking. Other things being equal, it is best to drill up the
prospect with the highest risked mean. The trouble is that other things are never equal. All ranking
must always be done on a money basis. Even then using the highest risked NPV ignores vital human
factors such as corporate strategy, political risk and personal bias.

However, so popular is risked mean that REP does calculate and display it.

If you are using economic criteria, two other key statistics are shown. The mean with economic cut-off
is the mean value with the economic criteria only (i.e. without the geological risking). It is equal to the
unrisked mean times the chance of economic success. It will, of course, be lower than the unrisked
mean.

The mean of economically successful cases is the mean result of all economically (and therefore
technically) successful cases. It is always higher than the unrisked mean.

The chance of economic success shown on the results sheet is the chance of economic success
assuming technical success. The overall chance of success is the chance of technical success times the
chance of economic success.

Consolidations

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The results of consolidations are analogous but not the same as those of prospect/field calculations.
This is because in consolidations there are no unrisked figures - not because they cannot be calculated
but because they are usually meaningless. Instead of "unrisked", consolidations use the concept of
"success". A success case in a consolidation is one where one or more of the fields or prospects being
consolidated is successful. As with the unrisked case in prospect calculations, the success case in
consolidations has a non-zero minimum - by definition, you have discovered something. However, it
does not mean that every input prospect has been a discovery.

You can see this quite clearly if you consolidate two risky prospects of significantly different sizes. The
relative probability curve will show two peaks - a "bimodal" distribution. The lower peak represents the
cases where only the smaller prospect is successful, the higher peak the cases where only the larger is
successful. Somewhere - probably lost - in the high end of the graph will be the rare cases that both
are successful.

Swanson's mean

Swanson's mean is defined as Mean (Mz) = 0.3 x p90 + 0.4 x P50 + 0.3 x P90. This is considered by
many authorities (and presumably Swanson himself) as a more robust measure, especially when a
results distribution is highly skewed. In REP, log-normal and normal distributions are clipped at 3
standard deviations from the mean (this is a feature of our Monte-Carlo algorithm) so the "true" mean
and Swanson's measure rarely differ by much. Swanson's mean is commonly used in the industry and
its importance really reflects overuse of the log-normal distribution.

One should not confuse using Swanson's mean with using the P50 as a "more robust" measure of
central value. The P50 is properly robust, Swanson's mean is still a mean, and affected by lunatic
upside.

2.5 Calculations

Quick calculations can be run by selecting a prospect and clicking on Calculate | Calculate from the
Prospect/Fields Summary screen. Choose Calculate | Calculate all to run a calculation on all open
prospects. See 'Deterministic Calculations' for a more comprehensive calculation.

See also: 'Iteration Control' and 'Data Points'.

2.5.1 Iteration Control

In this screen you can specify whether you wish to use a fixed or floating seed for the random number
generator. Computers are unable to generate truly random numbers. Rather, they are given a starting number
and from that derive a random(ish) sequence of numbers. But given the same starting point, they generate
the same sequence of numbers.

If you use a fixed seed, successive calculations on the same data set and with the same number of iterations
will give identical results.

If you specify a floating seed, the program will derive a seed based on the time of day (hours, minutes,
seconds and hundredths of seconds) at which you start the calculations. It is most unlikely that successive
calculations will have the same starting seed. Using different seeds, the results calculated for the same input

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data will be different. The amount of difference will depend on the input data and on the number of iterations.

Using a fixed seed is by no means consistent with the spirit of the Monte-Carlo method. But it is sometimes
useful to be able to precisely duplicate previous results (if your photocopier has broken down, for instance), or
if you are producing management reports. (Some company employees consider that Management gets very
confused and bitter if numbers change for no obvious reason, and are liable to go around sacking people
indiscriminately. They are, of course, quite wrong to think this. Good managers do not need an excuse.)

You may also specify the number of iterations in a calculation run. Increasing the number of iterations
increases the stability of the results, but the calculations take longer. For most data sets, 2000 iterations gives
reasonably consistent results. Modern machines are so fast that 20,000 iterations of a prospect only takes a
few seconds.

With v5.4 and above, a better sub-sampling method was introduced. This has a small effect on the results
compared to its predecessor but if, when recalculating prospects and consolidations, you want to get identical
results to those of earlier versions, select "Original" and press "calculate". This selection is not saved.

Iterations Enter the number of iterations required

Algorithm Choose the type of algorithm required

Sub Calculate using Original (v5.3x) or Revised (v5.4x) binning


sampling

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Seed Choose the type of seed required

Control Check to close dialog after calculation

Set Default Click to set these parameters as default

Calculation options

This dialog offers other options to control the calculation.

There is only one option:

Ignore The calculation starts by checking that all required variables are present, and that
warmings surfaces and so on are properly aligned. Sometimes these checks are a bit severe, and
and errors you may wish to continue with the calculation anyway; in which case, check this option,
on checks The warnings and errors are shown anyway, after the calculations finish.

2.5.2 Data points

It can sometimes be interesting to view the actual data that program uses in a calculation. This is particularly
the case where you are using dependencies and you want to be completely comfortable with the data that are
being used.

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To do this you must first run a calculation storing all the data points. From the Calculate menu, choose Data
points | Store points. Then run a calculation. Then choose Calculate | Data points | View points. (Actually both
these can be done from the latter option).

You can also save the full dataset: the complete set of inputs and outputs for each iteration. You can do this
from the main prospect menu ("Calculate | data points | Save points") or when viewing the data points by
clicking the save toolbar icon.

Note that there is no theoretical upper limit to the number of iterations, but as you increase the number these
plots will get unreasonably solid, and the drawing get slower and slower until your machine starts grinding to a
halt. Also, your computer needs to allocate memory to store the data, and there is of course a limit to the
amount it can give depending on how well equipped the machine is in this department, and how many
variables are in use.

You will then see a dialog similar to that seen below, with nothing plotted yet. On the left is the list of active
input variables. There are two ways of viewing the data points: as a crossplot of two variables, or a histogram
of one.

Open the tree branches to see a list of the current input variables and results. Click what you want
plotted in the tree. You can also use the drop-downs in the X- and Y-axis entries at the bottom. or drag
variables from the tree into the X- and Y-axis entries.

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The you don't have a y-axis specified, a histogram will be drawn (see also plot options below):

If you specify a y-axis, and "cross-plot" is chosen in the plot options dialog, you will get a cross-plot.

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The crossplots can get a bit dense. You could consider reducing the number of iterations to thin them out a bit.
There is no theoretical upper limit to the number of iterations, but as you increase the number the plots will
get unreasonably solid, and the drawing get slower and slower until your machine starts grinding to a halt.

Plot options

There are some useful controls on how the plots are drawn

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Plot type

Crossplot/histogram Choose the plot type you want

Sampling

Points The cross-plots can get a bit dense. Here you can choose to plot a limited number of

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points.

Histogram

Bins This is the resolution of the histogram.

Probability limits

X-axis probability You can choose to limit the plotted data to probability ranges in the variable or result. Click to see
limits an example (with masked points being shown) here:

From The higher probability (P) value - which of course corresponds to a lower value or the variable,
since REP uses P100 as a minimum. You can leave it blank, in which case the limit used is 100.

To The lower P value. You can leave it blank, in which case the limit used is 0

Y-axis probability The same as the x-axis limits, but for the y-axis, obviously.
limits

Conditions Filter the plotted points according to other data values. The conditions are entered in the table.
They are logical ANDs

Use Check the box to use this condition

Condition The condition

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> Click the button to enter, edit or delete the condition. The dialog is shown here:

Display

Show masked points Check this box to show the points which have been discarded by the conditions or probability limit
clipping. They are drawn in a discrete grey.

X histogram Check this box to show a histogram of the x-axis values. This is often obscured by the data points,
if you have lots of them. If this happens choose a smaller sampling above.

Y histogram Ditto.

2.5.3 Deterministic Calculations

Deterministic calculations are, of course, never done by a true apostle of the probabilistic method, under any
circumstances.

To run the deterministic calculator, choose the "Deterministic" option from the calculation menu. For the
current model, the required variables are shown. Enter a value for each variable, and press the [Calculate]
button. The results are shown on the right hand pane. The "Pdet" column shows the probability of achieving
the deterministic result according to the current probability distributions. Note that because of the binning
system Pdet may not correspond exactly with the probabilistic results.

You can load values from any underlying variables that have been defined, by clicking a probability level in the
"Load" box. Note that by default the "geological" probability levels are loaded: for example, the P10 Sw will
actually be the P90 value corresponding to the highest hydrocarbon volume. These "inverted" variables are
shown in red. The common ones are Sw, Bo and %Inerts.

If you load all the P10's and calculate, the answer will not correspond to the P10 calculated probabilistically. In
the unlikely event that you don't understand why this is, you most definitely need the REP training course;
please contact Logicom E&P.

Deterministic calculation results are whole trap volumes.

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It is best to run this facility when no-one else is looking.

Full Click to view/edit the distribution

Dependencies Click to enter/edit variable dependencies

Top Surface Click to see the top surface contours

SW/Height Click to see the Sw/Height curve

Base surface Click to see the base surface

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2.6 Tools
REP provides its users with an array of tools, besides the fundamental module elements, in order to further evaluate and present
prospects.

The eight topics are:

Sensitivity Plots

Reality Plots

Production Profiles

Realizations

DHI Risking

Prospect Input Data Plots

Evolution and Analysis

2.6.1 Sensitivity plots

There are two formats of sensitivity plot: Spider and Tornado. The tornado plot is a simplified (and perhaps
more management friendly) version of the spider plot.

Sensitivity (Spider) Plot


To make the spider plot for a hydrocarbon phase (oil, gas, etc.), the program first calculates a "P50 base case"
using P50 values of all the input variables. This gives a certain reserve amount.

Then, varying each input variable in turn, it works out the percentage change in the P50 reserve for a given P
level of the input variable. For example, it takes porosity and uses the P99, P95, P90, P80.... P20, P10, P5 and
P1 porosity values, in turn, to work out a corresponding reserve level. This is divided by the base case reserve
to give a percentage change in reserve for each P level.

It does these calculations for each input variable. The spider plot shows these variations for each variable. An
example is shown below:

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[Note: The y-axis (Reserves % change) is logarithmic in scale and the x-axis is a probability scale. For friendly
distributions (i.e. not histograms) this tends to give a smooth curve, and a straight line for a true log-normal
shape.]

This graph can be a little complicated to explain to management and investors; a relative uncertainty plot may
be more useful.

Relative Uncertainty (Tornado) Plot


In the tornado chart, the same data as the spider plot is used. The end points of each variable's bar are the
change in volume at the P90 and P10 values or the variable. The width of the bar therefore indicates
uncertainly.

The volume referred to is recoverable or in-place, depending on what you are showing on the summary
screen.

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The above example gives a clear message that column height is where most of the uncertainly lies.

Note that the graph shows no sensitivity at all to oil recovery factor, gas recovery factor or gas formation
volume factor. The reason is that the volume referred to is recoverable oil, so the gas factors do not apply. Oil
recovery factor is - in this case - fully dependent on net-to-gross, so it plays no part either.

2.6.2 Reality plots

The central limits theorem is fundamental to statistics and states that if you take a set of independent
randomly distributed variables, sample each one and add them up, then the probability distribution of the
totals you get by doing this lots of times tends to a normal (bell shaped) distribution.

A corollary is, that if you multiply (rather than add) the input samples, the resulting distribution of products
tends to a log-normal shape.

In the context of prospect evaluation, the theorem can be restated: where the fundamental processes
controlling the amount of hydrocarbon reserve are multiplicative, the resulting reserve probability distribution
should approach a log-normal shape.

So when REP multiplies GRV, net-to-gross, porosity, hydrocarbon saturation etc., the answer usually looks log-
normal - and you can see this from any REP calculation.

Many of the standard REP inputs are themselves products of more fundamental processes. For example, GRV
is the product of area and thickness (sort of), and reservoir thickness may be the product of rate of deposition
and how long the deposition went on for.

Some authors insist that all input parameters have multiplicative origins and that as a result you should only
use log-normal distributions as input. There are practical as well as theoretical difficulties with this position.

But no one disputes the central limits theorem and so the reserves distribution from a REP prospect/field
calculation should be approximately log-normal. In a reality plot, the cumulative reserves distribution is plotted

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with the reserves axis on a logarithmic scale and the probability axis on a normal probability scale. If the
resulting graph shows a straight line, then the distribution is log-normal.

If it is not log-normal, then you should consider arming yourself with a decent explanation of why.

Sometimes, the middle probability values are high (in reserve terms) compared to a straight line drawn
between the endpoints (the P95 and P5 values, say). This is exactly the situation that log-normal fanatics like
to see. They will rub their hands together with gleeful anticipation and then reach for their instruments of
torture. They will argue that you have boosted the middle values (upon which most economic evaluation rely)
in order to get your prospect approved and drilled. Or they will say that you have not considered in sufficient
detail the upside, thereby undervaluing the prospect and condemning your company to endless mediocrity.

All this can be avoided by looking at the reality plot and taking evasive action.

[Note: Most practitioners use the technical and ignore the economic.]

The plot legend also shows the P10/P90 ratio. This is considered to be a very diagnostic number. It is of
course a measure of the uncertainty in volume, and should therefore reflect the maturity of the
prospect. Here are some guidelines:

Development: 1.5 - 2

Appraisal: 2 – 5

Near field step-out: 4 – 10

Green field: 5 - 20

Frontier: 10 – 50+

Not everyone is not convinced that these numbers are useful, and some recent papers have argued the
case against even more strongly than this.

You can show deterministic estimates on the plot. These are presumably calculated outside of REP - by
a static or dynamic model, for example, or by third parties. Plotting them up on the reality plot can be
a good sense check, of both sets of numbers. Enter the deterministic numbers in menu option "File |
Other data | Deterministic estimates"

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Print the plot

Help

Close

2.6.3 Production profiles

Any production profile for an un-drilled prospect is fiction, whatever anyone may claim (your correspondent
was a reservoir engineer for ten long years). However, it is often the case that your colleagues in business
development need numbers to feed into their evaluation package. The REP production profile tool is designed
to generate "quick and dirty" profiles so that you can keep these guys happy, with minimum effort.

It is not sophisticated and it is not meant to make your reservoir engineers redundant - however worthy a goal
you may consider this to be.

Having said all that, production profiles tend to follow very similar patterns, and the simple rules allow you to
construct something reasonable looking, at least. In many cases, the profile will be just as accurate as
supposedly sophisticated simulation, even during the appraisal phase and possibly beyond.

It is also usually true that the value of a discovery is a function of (a) the number of wells and other

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development costs and (b) early production rates.

The production profiles dialog consists of 3 panels. Note that "EUR" stands for Estimated Ultimate Recovery so
"target EUR" is the REP reserve; and "plateau" is that early part of the production profile where the production
remains at some constant maximum for some time. A production profile may not show a plateau.

Control

Reserve Level

Click the reserve level for the profile to be generated. Note: When you save the
Reserve Level
profile, profiles for all reserve levels are made.

Phase

The phase box shows whether the program is calculating an oil or a gas
Phase case. Oil cases will show an oil profile, gas or gas condensate cases will
show a gas profile. The other phase will be written when you save the
profile - see Associated Phases, below.

Oil units

Choose unit for oil volume


Oil volume

Choose unit for oil rate


Oil rate

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Choose unit for gas volume


Gas

Choose unit for gas rate


Gas rate

Summary

This is the hoped-for EUR


Target EUR

This is the actual EUR achieved. If it's less than the target it is usually because the rate
Act. EUR
has dropped below the entered minimum rate for the field (entered in the next tab
Profile Parameters).

The final flow rate.


Final rate

The field life


Years

The number of producers required, based on plateau rate and average rate per well.
Producers
Should be treated with care! Average well rate is entered in the next tab, see
Profile Parameters.

Profile Parameters

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Build-up / Plateau

Enter the plateau length as percentage of EUR. If there is no plateau (a shale gas well,
Length [%EUR]
for example) you will need to enter a maximum rate below.

Enter the plateau production rate as percentage of EUR per year. Alternatively you can
Rate [%EUR/year]
leave this blank and enter a maximum rate in the entry below. If you do fill in a value
here, any maximum rate entered below will be effective only if the rate based on this
entry is greater than the maximum.

This is the peak production rate.


Maximum rate

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Most fields take a while to build to plateau (if indeed they ever get there). Wells need
Build-up
to be drilled and tied in, and in the meantime everyone is hungry for income. The build-
up time is the time between production start and the start of the plateau. Production is
assumed to increase linearly with time.

Build up is not a required entry.

Click this box to enter a second plateau period. You do not have to do this. If you do,
Second plateau
enter the length and rate of the second plateau in the same was as for the first. Note
that the length of the second plateau should be entered as the percentage of ultimate
recovery at the end of the plateau. Therefore, it should be a bigger number than that
entered for the first plateau.

Decline rates

Click to define an exponential decline. See the equation below.


Exponential

Enter the decline rate per year. It is an effective decline rate: 1- q/qi where qi is the rate
%Decline/year (De)
at the start of the year, and q the rate at the end.

Click to define a hyperbolic decline. See the equation below.


Hyperbolic
A hyperbolic decline is usually less severe than an exponential (using typical values of
"b" below) so is popular with the suits.

The initial decline rate as used in the equation for hyperbolic decline. It is
Initial decline rate not equivalent to the decline rate used in an exponential decline. It should
be a yearly decline as a percentage.

The constant b as used in the equation for hyperbolic decline. It must be


Constant "b" greater than 0. If b=1 the decline is said to be harmonic. It is possible to
put b>1, but it is not normally seen. Typical values are 0.3 - 0.9.

note: if b=0 the decline is exponential, but the hyperbolic equation has a
term (1/b) which much upsets computers. So just use the exponential
decline option.

Limiting Here you can enter a minimum decline rate. It has been observed that
wells showing hyperbolic decline do move to an exponential decline at some
point in their life - in other words, the decline rate no longer gets smaller,
but just stays constant, after a while. If it comes into play at all, the effect
is to reduce the EUR for any given production period.

Constraints

Enter the field minimum rate


Minimum rate

This is only used to calculate the number of producers required, and does
Av. rate per well not affect the production profile. If you leave it blank, the number of
producers is not calculated. The number of producers is worked out by
dividing the maximum rate by the average rate per well - so this "average
rate" does not necessarily mean the initial rate. Use with caution! Also note

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that there is often a link between the average rate and reserve level,
especially if reservoir thickness is a key uncertainty. This is not taken into
account.

Start date

Start date Enter the start date for the production

Decline formulas:

Exponential

Hyperbolic:

q rate at time t

qi initial rate (time=0)

De effective exponential decline rate

D nominal exponential decline rate

Di initial decline rate (hyperbolic equation)

b hyperbolic constant.

Profile Reporting

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The graphical display allows you to see what your profile looks like, but what you eventually want are the
numbers.

In this screen specify the time basis for the profile: production rates can be produced at monthly, 3 monthly, 6
monthly, or 12 monthly intervals. (The basic profile is always calculated on a monthly basis.) For the Start
date (optional) enter an expected date of first production.

When you click the save button, REP will write a .csv (comma delimited ASCII) file with the required profiles.
You are then asked whether you wish to view the data. Clicking [View] will launch the program which is
associated with csv files, which is normally Excel. (If it's not, check your file extension/program linkage in
Windows.) If REP reports that there was a problem saving the file, it is normally because you already have it
open in Excel. When Excel opens a file it tends to hog it, preventing any other application using it.

Time basis

Click to choose the reporting time basis for the profile


Time basis

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Start date

Enter the start date for the production


Start

Associated Phases
If you have an oil field with associated gas, a gas field with associated oil or a condensate field, there is
another fluid phase, which is reported along with the main phase.

Associated gas and oil are simple, but the liquids phase associated with a condensate field is harder to predict,
since the liquid-gas ratio varies during time. At the moment, REP just assumes a constant liquid/gas ratio. This
is almost certainly an incorrect assumption. You are warned.

2.6.4 Realizations

It is sometimes interesting to have "actual" scenarios (values for all the input variables) corresponding to P90,
P50, P10 and mean reserve cases. You can do this by choosing Tools | Realizations from the Prospect/Field
dialog.

You should have already run a standard calculation before doing a realization, in order to establish the base
P90, P50, etc. values.

The entry dialog looks like this:

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When you first start the realization, the values are blank. Click [Try] to populate the table. Successive "trying"
will give different realizations. The numbers in the table are in black.

Click [Means] to take the average of 1000 "tries". The numbers are shown in green.

In the case of oil and gas or condensate accumulations, you can choose which phase (total oil, total gas or
BOE) to use to match the realization.

[Note: If you choose to match on oil, the prospect P90 (for example) gas volume may not be exactly the P90
from the main calculation.]

The process always matches on total prospect volumes. But if you have different models and layers you can
get a realization for each model and/or layer by clicking relevant entry in the prospect/model/layers list in the
main dialog. Each time you change model or layer (or click on the full prospect) you must click the [Try]
button again.

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Export the results to XL by clicking the icon. In XL, just paste the table where you want it. You may have
to add the model/layer names manually.

It is very obvious, but nonetheless worth pointing out, that for a given variable, its value in the P90 realization
can be higher than that in the P10.

Copy grid to clipboard

Close window

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2.6.5 DHI risking

This module can be used in REP where seismic amplitude anomalies and flat-spots may be Direct Hydrocarbon
Indicators (DHIs). It is mainly intended for risking observed DHIs, but can also be used to risk the absence of
a DHI where one should exist. The end result is a DHI-driven Chance of Success (DHI-COS) for the prospect,
which can be compared with the geological Chance of Success (GCOS) to arrive at a final result (see below).

It is easy to make a list of the factors that ought to be considered when assessing a DHI (see e.g. Bacon,
Simm & Redshaw, 3D seismic Interpretation, Cambridge University Press 2003) but there is little or no
published information on how best to combine these factors to arrive at a prospect COS. The current module
considers the DHI information under four headings:

1. Data: quality and quantity.

2. Amplitude Anomaly: is it convincing?

3. Flat-spot: is it convincing?

4. Analogues: what do drilled examples of similar DHIs tell us?

Empirically based on examples from several basins worldwide, REP assigns a calibrated weighting to these four
headings of 15%, 35%, 20% and 30% respectively, when combining them into a DHI-COS.

There are of course many other types of possible DHI. These include both seismic (e.g. a gas chimney) and
non-seismic (e.g. EM anomaly) observations. These are not currently included in REP's DHI risking but if
enough calibration data become available, it may be possible to include these in a future version.

DHI Information

Data
Local well control: To assess the relevance, consider the similarity of stratigraphy, facies, interval thickness,
and geographical proximity of wells to the prospect. Log data: the ideal is to have nearby P and S sonic and
density coverage over the same reservoir and for at least several hundred feet above and below it. Where
applicable, logs in hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs should ideally have been corrected for the effect of invasion
by mud filtrate.

Seismic data: To assess the quality, consider the survey type (2D vs. 3D, single vs. multiple vintages), signal/
noise, multiple suppression, amplitude preservation during processing, and distortion of amplitudes by
overburden effects (especially shallow gas). Phase/polarity: if there is no direct well-tie, then the appearance
of seabed or the top of a thick soft layer (e.g. Kimmeridge Clay/Draupne Fm. in the North Sea) or thick hard
layer (e.g. basement) may give a good qualitative indication. AVO and impedance volumes: a complete set
would ideally include angle gathers, angle stacks, intercept and gradient volumes, chi angle projections,
acoustic impedance inversion and elastic inversion volumes.

Amplitude Anomaly
In assessing how well it is understood what a DHI amplitude anomaly should look like, remember to include
AVO effects (e.g. changes from near to far traces). In thinking about the relative size of fluid and lithology
effects, consider not only the impedance difference but also the way that seismic response will be affected by
bed thickness changes; tuning can increase or decrease the amplitude response, depending on the bed
thickness relative to the dominant seismic wavelength. When considering whether the observed anomaly is
consistent with being a DHI think about the relative amplitude change and polarity. Fit to structure is
considered in the next section, where one should remember to allow for uncertainty in depth conversion.

Flat-spot

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In thinking about what a flat-spot should look like, one should include AVO behaviour as well as amplitude
relative to lithological reflectors. Also consider possible departure from flatness in TWT due to lateral velocity
variation in the overburden, or a genuine tilt in depth due to hydrodynamic and/or diagenetic effects. In
assessing whether the flat-spot could be a multiple, consider its amplitude, relation to possible multiple
generators, and discordance to bedding if applicable. Fit to structure combines two elements: whether the flat-
spot terminates cleanly at the top seal (and bottom seal if relevant) and whether it is continuous within the
reservoir across the entire mapped structure.

Analogues
The first question is whether there are similar DHIs locally that have been drilled and for which you know the
well outcome. Similarity of the analogue to the prospect combines geographical proximity, stratigraphy, trap
type and prospect depth. The question on dry analogues should be taken to mean: among the analogues that
show a similar DHI, what proportion when drilled did not have producible hydrocarbons in the interval of
interest? Thus, say gas at low saturation would be regarded as a failure case.

Combining Conventional Geological and DHI Risk


Consider which of the two risks (DHI-COS and GCOS) you have more faith in and weight the overall COS
accordingly using the slider bar. In REP this is done as a subjective exercise. It is recommended to be done by
consensus and subjected to peer discussion after the two elements of risk assessment have been completed.
No formal mechanism for combining the risks has been incorporated in REP.

Bayesian risk modification can be used as a more objective method of combining risks. It is an alternative
approach that may be a helpful aid to thought for enthusiasts. To do Bayesian risk modification, consider all
the elements that have been incorporated into the DHI risking, and estimate the values for:

P1: The probability of having a seismic appearance like that observed, given hydrocarbons are present
(a true positive).

P2: The probability of having a seismic appearance like that observed, given hydrocarbons are not
present (a false positive).

G: Geological Chance of Success.

[Note: Bayesian risking is a modification of G in the light of new information (P1 and P2). As such, this is a
valid approach only if G has been arrived at without incorporating any of the DHI information in P1 and P2.
This is not likely to be the case for many stratigraphic traps whose extent is already defined by a seismic
amplitude or other DHI.]

2.6.6 Input data plots

Input data plots allow you to compare variable probability distributions in a group of prospects.

Start by loading up a set of prospects in the usual way. Then choose Tools | Input variable plots from the
prospect menu. This is what you get:

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From the Variables tab, choose the input variable you wish to compare.

The Prospect list tab shows the currently loaded prospects. You can switch a prospect on ( ) and off ( ) by
double-clicking its name in the list. If you have models and/or layers, they are also shown and you can also
double-click them to turn them on and off. This switching on and off only affects the display.

If you single click a prospect, it is drawn with a thicker line (or otherwise, depending on what who have chosen
in the Options tab below).

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The Options tab offers a few plotting option, mostly designed to help you discover which distribution is which.

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Options

Highlight Check to highlight selected prospect with thicker line


current

Shade current Check to shade selected prospect

Grey others Check to grey-scale unselected prospects

Exterior Check to move legend outside the graph


legend

Print

Help

Close

Plot format

Normal mode

Line mode

Text

Pick points

Redraw

Zoom in

Set x

Set y

Zoom out

Reset

Set data filters

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Print

2.6.7 Evolution and analysis

Evolutions and Analysis allows you to compare evaluations of one or more resource volumes.

You can do this for a single volume, and also compare pre-and post-drill estimates (or any other pair) for
multiple prospects.

You must have one or more prospects with multiple (two or more) evaluations in them.

It may be useful to read 'Prospect Evaluation' first, in order to understand how evaluations work. To open the
Evolution and Analysis dialog, choose Tools | Evolution and analysis from the prospect menu.

Tasks

Evolution

Input variables You can choose analyse input variables ....

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Results ... or calculated results

Pre-post

Input variables For multiple prospects you can compare pre- and post- drill (or any two evaluation
categories) - either input variables ...

Results .. or calculated results

Prospects

Prospects Select which prospect(s) you would like to plot. To toggle between showing (green tick
in the little box) and not showing (no tick) either right click or double click. Turning off
a prospect will disable plotting of all the historical data in that prospect.

• For evolution plots, you can show any number of evaluations

• For pre-post plots you can only show two evaluations. The later one (in date terms)
is shown on the y-axis, and the earlier one on the x-axis.

Variables or
Results

Variables Select which variable you would like to plot. Remember that not all prospects will use
all variables.

Select which result phase you would like to plot.


Results

Options

Plot

Highlight current Check to highlight the current prospect evaluation

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Shade current Check to shade the current prospect evaluation

Grey others Check to grey-scale all other prospect evaluations

Exterior legend Check to move legend outside plot

Results

Whole trap These refer to results plots only and comprise the usual options...

Share ...

Technical ...

Success ...

2.7 Other data

Enter topic text here.

2.7.1 Associated files

It can be useful to list non-REP files (spreadsheets, reports, maps etc.) that are related to a prospect as a
simple document list.

Populate the list by clicking the [Add] button; highlight one or more files in the Windows file browser and click
[Open] to load.

You can also drag and drop files from a Windows explorer file list. Drop into one of the first two columns in the
REP window.

To sort the data, click with the right mouse button in the column title area. The column you click in will
designate the sort criteria.

Click the [...] button (under the "View" column) to open a file. This has the same effect as double clicking its
name in Windows Explorer. If there is a program associated with the file type it will be run.

The [Archive all] button copies the prospect file, any map files and all files specified here to a new directory in
the archive path. The archive path is set in Location of Files, see section on 'User Options' for more
information on this. REP creates a new directory (with the prospect name and a time stamp) and puts the files
into it. You can then zip up the directory and send it to your friends, e-bay etc..

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Columns

View Click to view file: This has the same effect as double clicking its name in Windows
Explorer. If there is a program associated with the file type it will be run.

Buttons

Add Click to add a new file

Delete Click to delete selected file

Restart Click to delete all current entries

Up Click to move the current row up

Down Click to move the current row down

Archive all Click to archive files. See above

2.7.2 Deterministic estimates

Deterministic estimates are values of in-place and recoverable volumes from third parties - for
example, a static or dynamic reservoir model. The deterministic values can can be shown on a reality
plot, and doing so provides a sense check of both sets of numbers.

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To enter the values choose the menu option "File | Other data | Deterministic values". Just type the
relevant numbers in to the table.

2.8 Prospect evaluations


Evaluations are the set of different interpretations of a single resource volume. As time goes by you
hope your lead becomes a prospect, a discovery, a potential field development and finally goes on
production. Your estimates of resource will certainly change through this process, and it is interesting
to see this in both in terms of volumes and in terms of individual input parameters.

A new evaluation is a copy of the current one, which is then frozen so that you cannot change it. You
can make as many evaluations as you like. In normal working mode, only the current evaluation is
shown.

To see how to analyse and plot evaluations see Evolution and analysis.

To start a new evaluation, go to File | New | Evaluation. The New Evaluation dialog will appear.

If you have not already done so under Parameters | Identification | ID: General, then you now have
the opportunity to name your current evaluation. You are then asked to provide a name for your new
evaluation and, using the radio buttons, to choose which stage you are evaluating (pre-drill, post-drill
or appraisal). Click [Create] to generate your new evaluation.

Once you have created a new evaluation, all old evaluations are then automatically frozen.

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Current
evaluation

Name Enter the name of the current evaluation

Pre-drill/Post- Choose the evaluation stage of the current evaluation


drill/Appraisal

New
evaluation

Name Enter the name of the new evaluation

Pre-drill/Post- Choose the evaluation stage of the new evaluation


drill/Appraisal

Create Click to confirm creation of new evaluation

Once a new evaluation has been created, you may use the icon to reveal all evaluations below your
prospects in the prospect list of the summary screen; click the icon again to hide them.

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It is possible to manage your evaluations by right-clicking on an evaluation in the prospect list of the
summary screen.

Clicking on "Rename evaluation" will open a dialog, in which to rename your selected evaluation.

Clicking on "Manage evaluations" will open the Evaluations dialog, which will appear as a standard
dialog for all evaluations, no matter which one you have selected.

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New Click to create a new evaluation. The New evaluation dialog is described above.

Allow edit By checking in this column you can override the default, which is that old
evaluations cannot be edited. It is not recommended to do so however.

Import Click to import an evaluation from one or more existing prospect files. The
program will check that the prospect names match, but they don't have to, you
can ignore the warning.

The date of the imported evaluation will be set to the date the imported file was
last calculated, but you can edit it.

Delete Click to delete the selected evaluation. You cannot delete the current evaluation.

Move up, These buttons allow you to move the evaluations up and down the list. They
down should be in reverse date order, and the current evaluation must be at the top.

Sort by date This will sort the evaluations in reverse date order.

Analysis Opens the Evolution and analysis dialog, where you can plot the historical
evaluation data for the current (and any other loaded) prospect.

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2.9 Resource plays

Resource plays are defined by the SPEE as:

1. Wells exhibit a repeatable statistical distribution of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR).

2. Offset well performance is not a reliable predictor of undeveloped location performance.

3. A continuous hydrocarbon system exists that is regional in extent.

4. Free hydrocarbons (non-sorbed) are not held in place by hydrodynamics.

(See SPEE Monograph 3, 3rd edition 2013)

In REP, resource plays are modelled in two ways:

1. Volumetric calculations are made using the conventional resource facilities with the addition of
a sorbed phase. Not all the conventional resource features are necessary or even valid, of course.

2. Statistical estimates can be made using the calculator. When running a resource play the
calculator may be accessed from the "Calculate | Statistical estimates" menu item, and the
estimates are bundled up with the other prospect data. Several typical estimators are pre-defined if
you are working with a resource play.

In mature plays the second approach is recommended - especially by SPEE. But in many parts of the
world shale plays are undeveloped, and even where well data are available, rarely of the quality or
quantity deemed necessary by SPEE. It is therefore necessary to combine volumetric estimates with
analogue data on EUR's, well spacings etc..

Resource plays can be risked like any other prospect. By analogy with conventional plays the current
risking scheme has two main categories: play and sweet spot. Individual risk elements within each
category reflect resource play issues.

Currently the resource play calculations are released as a beta version. Your feedback is most welcome.
Further features are being developed: for example, using structure maps and gas/condensate/oil
window depths to estimate different resource phases.

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3 Consolidations

The Consolidations module allows you to combine related Prospects or to risk prospects with multiple
horizons. The following section should provide you with the solutions to any problems you are experiencing in
operating the Consolidations module.

The consolidation summary screen

Parameters

Understanding the results

Calculations

Tools

3.1 Consolidation summary


Consolidations are a means of grouping and adding up the results of individual prospect evaluations or
previous consolidations.

Although consolidating results is in principle very simple (distributions are added together just as they are
multiplied together in a prospect evaluation) the concept of common risk and how it is best handled is
extremely important and should be fully understood.

The consolidation summary screen controls all the consolidation entry, calculation and results tasks.

On the left of the window there is a list of all the consolidations currently active. You can click on any entry to
make this consolidation active. You can also remove consolidations from the list by right clicking on it, and
choosing "Remove". (Other useful options from this menu include "View consolidation hierarchy" (a tree view
of the files being consolidated) and "Quick ID", allowing you to change the name and case of the consolidation
very easily.)

On the right of the screen, a summary of the currently active consolidation is shown.

At the top of the window is the menu bar, from which all actions are initiated. Common actions also have
buttons in the tool bar. See 'Consolidation Menu' for more information.

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Project

Project Denotes the project currently selected

Consolidation
summary

Results units Select desired unit for results output

H/c Toggle between hydrocarbon types

More stats.. Click for more detail on the results distribution

Graph.. Show summary graph in new window

1ary/2ary.. Shows the split between primary and secondary porosity systems.

Close Close selected consolidations summary

Results Summary
When you first read a file, the summary results are taken from the file. When you change a parameter and run
a calculation, the screen is updated with the new results.

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If you have more than one consolidation active, you can click the consolidation (or layer/model/segment) to
see it's particular results.

The summary shows the ID of the consolidation (+ current *segment, *model and layer) at the top left of the
screen. Below are shown the defined hydrocarbons, and the unrisked mean quantity of total recoverable oil
(liquids) and gas. These can be either whole trap or net (to your company), depending on the entry in the
Installation file.

Then comes a summary of the chances of success - play, consolidation specific, geological chance of success
(GPOS) and economic chance of success (EPOS). If there is no economic cut-off defined, the GPOS is equal to
the EPOS.

Below the chances, the key numbers are shown. The P90, P50, P10 and Mean figures (both whole trap and
net) refer to the success case. The risked mean is the mean times the geological chance of success (GPOS)

Where there is no economic cut-off, and GPOS = EPOS, all these numbers are shown in black.

Where there is an economic cut-off, there are 2 possible success cases - technical and economic. You can look
at either, and switch between the two by toggling the [<>] button (between the numbers and the graph). The
technical success case numbers are shown in red, and the economic success case is shown in green.

[Note: The economic success case mean is always equal to or higher than the technical success case mean,
and the displayed risked mean is always the technical success mean times the GPOS - i.e. the risked mean
does not change.]

The mean is either the arithmetic mean or Swanson's mean (in which case it is shown as "Mean Mz"). You can
choose which to show in the 'Installation Options'. Because of the way REP clips its skewed distributions there
is normally not much difference between the arithmetic mean and Swanson's number.

To the right of the summary is the results graph. This shows the probability vs. reserve. See 'Understanding
the Results' for a discussion of what the curves are.

Below the summary numbers are some buttons:

[More stats] gives slightly more detail on the results distribution (including both the arithmetic mean
and Swanson's mean)

[Graph] shows the summary graph in a standalone window. There are three reasons you might wish to
do this.

1. You can make it big, so that even blind management can see it.

2. You can paste it onto the Windows pasteboard (using <CTRL+ALT+PRNTScreen>) and then
copy it from there into any Windows program, or print it using the window print option.

3. You can save the data in the graph as a comma-delimited file, and read the data into XL. Some
people find this useful. Use the window File | Save as option.

[ECO sens.] brings up a set of tools to let you look at the sensitivity of the results to economic cut-off

To the right of the summary screen, below the graph, are four radio buttons which enable you to chance the
output units.

Finally, below the units button is another one marked [View log]. When you are reading files or doing a
calculation REP will write any warnings or errors to a log file, which is normally shown at the end of the
process. If you want to review the log, click this button to bring up the log window again.

3.1.1 Consolidation Menu

The menu toolbar above the Consolidation summary screen allows you to navigate through the module.

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The Consolidation menu has these main items:

• File: Opening, saving, printing, etc.

• Parameters: Input of all parameters required for a consolidation calculation.

• Calculate: Full calculation, single point calculation, set calculation parameters (iterations).

• Results: Choose which hydrocarbon type (recoverable oil, gas-in-place, etc.) to view.

• Tools: Diagnostic plots, sensitivities, etc.

• Help: Access to the help pages.

• Consolidation Hierarchy: A useful tool for visualising consolidations.

File

New
This starts a new consolidation. To enter parameters, use Parameters | All, as outlined below, in Parameters.

Starting a new consolidation can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Open
This opens an existing consolidation. The standard Windows "File open" dialogue is displayed. You can choose
one or more consolidation files to open, using the standard Windows procedure.

Opening an existing consolidation can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Project
This allows you to group together prospects and consolidations. See 'Projects' for more information.

Recent files
In the sub-menu the most recent consolidation files (up to 20) are shown. Click on one of them to load the file.
You can load all the recent files at once by choosing "Load all recent". You can also clear the recent files list by
choosing "Clear all recent".

Save
This saves the current consolidation file. If you have not given the consolidation a filename you will be
prompted for it.

[Note: It is recommended (but not necessary) that you first do a calculation, so that the stored results data

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reflect the input data.]

Saving a prospect can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Save As
This saves the data to a new file, and you are prompted for the new file name.

Export
This has several sub-options:

"to XL file" writes selected data (numbers, graphs etc.) from the current prospect into an XL
spreadsheet, which can be imported into XL using a supplied macro. See 'Exporting Data to XL
Spreadsheets'.

"to XL summary file" writes consolidation data into an XL spreadsheet, possibly a prospect inventory.

File Details

This option opens a dialog listing the properties of the selected consolidation. Here, information on when it was written and
who by can be altered.

Print/Print Preview/Windows Metafile


These options produce the hard copy output. "Print" sends it straight to the printer. Printing is via the Windows
system, so any printer accessible to your computer can be used. "Print preview" draws it on the screen, you
can send it to the printer from the preview window. "Windows metafile" writes the printed sheets to .emf
(metafile format) or .bmp (bitmap format). Both are readily imported into other windows programs, including
word, XL etc. See 'Printing' for more information.

Note: With all the printing options, you can choose to print the "summary pages" (the key input and results,
by hydrocarbon type), the "full" output (about 5 pages, depending on the hydrocarbons present) or a
"selection" of pages.

Printing a hard copy output can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Loading a print preview can also be achieved by clicking on the icon.

Print Options
Select "All options" and a screen will appear in which you can choose to make your output in CGM format. CGM
is a common graphics format which can be read by many oil-field software packages, including the ZEH
plotting system. You can also choose not to show economic criteria on output sheets. Economic criteria is often
rather sensitive data, so this is a useful option if you are giving your results to partners.

Printer/Page Set-up
Select this to reveal a standard printer dialogue box in which you can set page size and other printing
parameters. Do not trouble to set the page to landscape.

Parameters

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Form the parameters menu all the input data can be entered and edited.

All
If you are starting from new, this options runs through, step-by-step, all the other parameter menu items
allowing you to enter the data in a structured manner.

Identification
This dialog allows you to enter the consolidation name, location, setting and other general descriptive data.
See 'Consolidation Identification' for more information.

Consolidation Type
This dialog sets the type of consolidation you are going to do. See 'Consolidation Type' for more information.

Input Files
Here, files to be consolidated are entered and (depending on the consolidation type) common risks are also
entered. See 'Input Files' for more information.

Economic Cut-offs
This dialog is used to enter the minimum values of oil and/or gas for the consolidation to be economic. See
'Economic Cut-offs (Consolidations)' for more information.

Calculate

Calculate
This facility runs a calculation on the current consolidation file.

Outcome distributions

For each possible outcome (combination of success and failure of the inputs) the program calculates
the chance of that outcome occurring, and the P90, P50, P10 and mean result should that outcome
occur. These data are written to a csv file, which can be opened (from within the program, should you
wish) in a spreadsheet. For now, all the inputs to the consolidation should be prospects or dummy
entries.

Iteration Control
This gives you control over the calculation parameters (number of iterations and seed type).

Data Points
See 'Data Points' for more information.

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Results
The menu options are a list of all the relevant hydrocarbon types produced or present in the current
consolidation. Choose one of them to see the results for that hydrocarbon type in the summary window. You
can also show the area/depth plot (if there is one), GRV and in-place volumes. See 'Understanding the Results'
for more information.

Tools
From the tools menu you can produce some useful sensitivity and QC plots:

Input Data Plots

See 'Input Data Plots' for more information.

Reality Plot
This is a useful QC. See 'Reality Plots' for more information.

ECO Sensitivity
This allows you to see the influence of any economic cut-offs on the results. See 'ECO Sensitivity' for more
information.

Decision Tree

See 'Decision Tree' for more information.

Help
Help refers to the general REP help. Custom Help are help pages written for a specific site, and not available to
other REP users.

REP Help can also be accessed by clicking on the icon.

Consolidation Hierarchy
A very useful option, the consolidation hierarchy is particularly useful when you a consolidating consolidations.
See 'Consolidation Hierarchy' for more information.

The Consolidation Hierarchy can be accessed by clicking on the icon.

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3.2 Input parameters


There are up to six consolidation parameter sections to complete. They are:

Identification

Input files

Consolidation type

Common/MEX risk

Dependent variables

Dependent models

Economic cut-offs

See also Consolidating consolidations below

Entry is in one composite dialog as shown below, and the various sections can be accessed from the menu on
the left.

The next and back menu buttons take you through the full entry in logical order

For a description of the Tools menu items click here

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Consolidating Consolidations
One of the strengths of REP is that consolidations may themselves be input to a further consolidation. This
allows you to build up reserves profiles by Play, Block, Licence, Region, Country, etc.

However, it is important to appreciate that because of the underlying common risk definitions there is a strict
hierarchy in consolidations. The rules are as follows:

General: Any consolidation type can be used as input.

Prospects in a Play: Either Prospects in a Play or Segments in a Prospect may be used as input.

Segments in a Prospect: No consolidations may be used.

Stacked Plays: Both Prospects in a Play and Segments in a Prospect may be used as input.

Stacked Prospects: No consolidations may be used as input.

All consolidation types allow input of prospect files.

When consolidating with common chances defined, REP will check that the common chance for each input is
the same and will not complete the calculation if it is not.

[Note: Starting from program version 5, all the levels of a consolidation are recalculated when a controlling
calculation is done, including all prospects. This means that you need to have all the underlying files on your
machine (or accessible from it) when doing a calculation.]

3.2.1 Consolidation identification

Consolidation identification is entered into a single property sheet with three tabs. This section allows you to
enter information outlining your consolidation's various attributes.

The tabs are:

General

Maps, etc.

Text Description

[Note: Entries with a light blue background are mandatory.

General

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In this dialog general information regarding the name, location and classification of the consolidation can be
entered.

Consolidation name may be any text string. To further identify the consolidation you can (optionally) use
Prospect, Case Country, Block, Licence, Basin, Play and Reference

Name Enter the name of the consolidation.

Case A further identification

Prospect Enter the prospect appropriate to this consolidation

Country Enter the country relating to this consolidation

Block Enter the block relating to this consolidation

Licence Enter the licence name appropriate to this consolidation

Basin Enter the basin relating to this consolidation

Play Enter the relevant play name

Reserves Enter the reserves classification of this consolidation


class

Unit/Group This refers to the Group/Unit name defined in the 'User Options'. The default group name
can be retrieved by clicking on the [<] button. Alternatively, a name can be manually
entered and set as the new default by entering a name into the field and clicking on the [Set
as default] button.

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Reference Enter a reference number/string

Maps

On the printed output sheets, space is left for various maps. There are two ways to fill in these boxes: skilful
use of a photocopier or specifying .bmp files or other common graphics format (.jpeg files are common) if you
have them somewhere on your system.

In the dialog, click the Add button to add an image file. Once the desired file is found, click OK and it is added
to the list on the left. To edit an existing entry, click on it in the list.

Title Each map or image may be given a title. There is a drop-down list of common titles
("Seismic section", "Location map" etc.) but you can enter anything you like.

Folder This is source folder with the image file

Filename This is file name of the image file

Browse Browse for a new location or file

View Click to view the image. It is opened by the program associated with the file extension,
as registered with your operating system.

Preserve Check to preserve aspect ratio of the image when printing it. Otherwise, the image is

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aspect ratio stretch-and-squeezed to fit the box on the page.

Rotate Check this box to rotate the image on the page. It it will be rotated clockwise.

Up Move the current image up in list (and therefore the order in which it is printed)

Down Move the current image down in list

Add Add an image

Delete Delete the current image

Rotate Rotate image

Text description

Under the Text description tab you may enter any text description of the consolidation.

[Note: You can cut and paste the text into or from any Windows program that supports cut and paste. To put
data into the clipboard, highlight the text and press Ctrl-c (the "Ctrl" and "c" keys together) on the keyboard.
To paste clipboard data into REP (or another Windows program) press Ctrl-v.]

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3.2.2 Input files

In this section you enter the variables to be consolidated.

Files to be Consolidated
In the Input files screen you enter the inputs you wish to consolidate.

Click on the Add file button to add a new file to the list. The remaining columns in the table will be filled in
from data found in the input file.

The Add dummy button allows you to enter a dummy entry. With a dummy entry, you specify the hydrocarbon
type, volumes and risks in a set of dialogs. Dummy entries are useful for (a) what-if scenarios and (b) those
occasions when you have some prospect results but no REP file - perhaps because they were generated by
another piece of software or some wild-eyed loons, probably both.

When you are doing a consolidation with common risks, REP will check that any file added conforms to the
rules for the consolidation type. In particular it will check that the common chance (if any) is the same as the
common chance for any other input specified in the data set. If it is not, it will not allow you to use the file.

Click the [View] button for any file to see the input data in more detail.

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• If the entry is a prospect, the prospect is loaded into the prospect summary screen and you can make
any changes here. The changes you make are immediately active, so if you re-run the consolidation it
will use the changed data. You do not need to save the prospect file first - but of course if you want to
keep your changes you should do so eventually.

• If the entry is another consolidation, the consolidation is loaded into the consolidation summary screen.
As with a prospect, you can make any changes by making it the active consolidation. The changes are
immediately active, so if you rerun the parent consolidation it will use the changed data. You do not
need to save the input consolidation file first - but of course if you want to keep your changes you
should do so eventually.

• If the entry is a dummy entry, you will go through the sequence of screens defining the entry.

• To quickly load a number of dummy entries, you can detail them in an XL spreadsheet laid out as
shown:

prosp Hyd NRI Shape unit mi p9 p50 p1 m Shape uni mi p9 p50 p1 ma play play play prosp prosp prosp prosp
ect ro- % n 0 or 0 ax t n 0 or 0 x res_ri seal_r src_ri ect ect ect ect
name carb mod mod sk isk sk tr_ris res_ri seal_r mig_ri
on e e k sk isk sk

dum o 50 lognor mmst 50 100 200 100 90 80 70 60 50 40


my1 mal b

dum g 70 triangul bcf 20 100 250 90 80 70 60 50 40 100


my2 ar

dum o+g 90 normal mmst 50 100 200 triangul bcf 20 100 250 80 70 60 50 40 100 100
my3 b ar

Order has no significance within a given consolidation; however if you change the order the results may
change very slightly. This is due to the random nature of the Monte-Carlo process. This may be more
noticeable if you are consolidating inputs of markedly different sizes.

You may specify up to 40 inputs to be consolidated in one pass. This should not be a limitation, since you can
always consolidate consolidations.

Add file Add in a new entry - prospect or consolidation, from file

Add dummy Add a dummy entry and enter it's details in succeeding dialogs

Up Click to move selected input file up

Down Click to move selected input file down

Whole trap Show whole trap volumes or ..

Company .. show company share.


share

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The input table is another view of the entries:

Whole trap Show whole trap volumes ..

Company .. or company share.


share

Entering dummy variables

To enter a dummy variable you must fill in the following dialogs: ID/hydrocarbons/NRI; volumes; and
risks.

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In the next dialog the volumes must be whole trap. There is one for oil and another for gas, whichever
or both as appropriate:

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The risks dialog should reflect your current risking scheme.

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3.2.3 Consolidation type

There are six forms of consolidation:

• General

• Stacked prospects

• Prospects in a play

• Segments in a prospect

• Stacked plays

• Mutually exclusive events

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[Note: You should understand the meaning of 'Common risk' before going much further.]

Apart from mutually exclusive events, the consolidation types differ only in what elements of risk are
considered common to all inputs.

General

General There is no dependent risk.

With dependent risk:

Stacked Any risk element may be made common. This is the most flexible type and is
prospects recommended.

Prospects in a All the play risks are common, and all the prospect specific risks are independent.
play You cannot change any dependency.

Segments in a All the play risks are common, but you can make any one of the the prospect
prospect specific risks common or not.

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Stacked plays All the prospect specific risks are independent, but you can make any element of
the play risk common. This form of consolidation is only rarely useful.

Mutually exclusive

Mutually See below.


exclusive events

Usually (and unless you are using mutually exclusive events), the question is: do the input prospects share
any risk element? If not, use a "general" consolidation. If they do, use "Stacked prospects" and enter the
dependent risk elements in the next dialog.

Mutually exclusive events


Mutually exclusive events are items in a list of outcomes only one of which can occur. For example, if you
throw a dice once, the result can be any number between one and six; but you can only get one of them.

Mutually exclusive events are almost always better handled by Prospect models. Only read on if you are sure
that using prospect models is not appropriate.

In REP, a typical use of mutually exclusive events is in a case where you do not know whether a prospect
contains oil or gas. You can work up two prospect files, one oil case and one gas case. Then you can
consolidate them as mutually exclusive events, assigning relative probabilities to the two outcomes - for
example, 60% chance of oil and 40% of gas.

Defining a consolidation of mutually exclusive events is exactly the same as defining a general consolidation
except that at the end you must define the relative probabilities. The relative probabilities must add up to
100% (in fact, the program will adjust them so that they do anyway).

You can enter any number of different events - you could extend the oil or gas consolidation to include
possible gas-condensate of two phase outcomes.

In general, mutually exclusive events are designed to take into account fundamentally different models of the
same field or prospect. Besides the hydrocarbon type problem, you could use it to evaluate different
development models (natural depletion or water injection, for example), or even different geological models.
In this last case, you have to be very careful not to muddle up the chances of different models with the
particular chances of success of individual models.

3.2.4 Common chance

If you are consolidating with common chance (also referred to as common risk) you must enter those
elements of input prospect chance (if any) are common to all the prospects. This is done on the Common
Chance dialog, shown below, in the "Common/MEX chance" page of the consolidation input.

The actual dialog you see will depend on the risking scheme you are using. The one below is for scheme 9. Not
all schemes allow you to specify partial dependencies, so the main difference between dialogs (apart from the
risk names) is whether you see the slider bars on the right.

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For each entry in the consolidation the elements of overall prospect chance are specified. (Remember that the
input may also be the result of a consolidation.)

Below the table of inputs, check those elements that are common. The common risk for each risk element is
the amount of risk which is common. The most than can be shared for any element is minimum risk of all the
input elements in that category.

In the example below, and remembering that Risk = 1 - Chance:

• You cannot share any regional (play) seal risk because there isn't any - the chance for both inputs is 100%.
Ditto regional reservoir and source.

• For the prospect specific reservoir risk, you can share 25% of risk - both input chances are 75%

• For the prospect specific trap risk "gas 1" has a risk of 50% and "gas 4" a risk of 60%. The most you can
share is 50%.

You can specify how much of the potential shared risk you actually share (this is not available for all risking
schemes). Sharing is in steps of 25%.

The program updates the Overall common elements (Risk and Chance) entry automatically. It will also update
the Specific column (which is the specific chance for the input - i.e. the chance with the common elements
removed).

[Note: For consolidations of prospect segments, the play chance is defined to be common to all inputs.
Therefore the select element entries for reservoir, source and seal play chances are set to 'yes' and cannot be
altered.]

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There is a tab to enter comments. It is strongly recommended that you explain you choices of common
risk.

If the risking scheme you are using has an amplitude modifier, the combination of entered common
chances may be invalid. If so, the common chance is shown in red. Were you to try a calculation it
would not complete. See Common chance with an amplitude modifier below.

Consolidation Calculations
The results of consolidation calculations are more sensitive than prospect calculations to the number of
iterations used. This is especially so when some or all of the inputs are high risk.

The number of iterations to be used is specified in the set-up and defaults. If the program thinks that the
number chosen will give insufficient resolution then it will increase it.

The differences between the various forms of consolidation and the principle of common chance which
underlies them is probably the most difficult concept in the program.

Common chance is present if the outcome of one prospect (hydrocarbon discovery or not) affects the chance
of success of one or more other prospects.

If this is not the case then use the simplest form of consolidation, a General consolidation, to add the
prospects. With this method, input distributions are simply summed up after adjustment for the overall chance
of each input. Under certain circumstances this can give very misleading results.

Consider the example of identical prospects in a play, each with a play chance of 60% and a prospect specific
chance of 20% - giving an overall chance for each prospect of 12%.

If three of these prospects are consolidated using a general consolidation, the chance of finding at least some
hydrocarbon (i.e. the chance of success) is:

1 - { (1-0.12) x (1-0.12) x (1-0.12) } = 32%

If two more identical prospects are added to the play the chance of success goes up to 47%. If there are ten
prospects it goes up to 72%. With a hundred there is a near certainty of discovering oil.

The trouble is, we assumed that the prospects were all in the same play, and that the play chance was 60%,
which means there is a 40% chance that the play doesn't work at all. And if it doesn't then all the prospects
fail - regardless of how many there are. So the greatest the chance of success can ever be is the play chance.

The figures given for the general consolidation case above are correct only if all the prospects are in different
plays; in other words, if they are completely independent. And we can define independence:

Prospect B is independent of prospect A if the outcome of drilling A (success or failure) does not
influence in any degree the probability of success or the predicted reserves distribution in B.

In the example above, the prospects are dependent because they are all in the same play. If the first one is
drilled and is a failure, it may or may not change the play and prospect chances of the others (depending on
why it was a dry hole). But if it is a success it definitely will, because the play becomes proven, and the play
chance in all the other prospects becomes 100%.

To get the correct answer when consolidating our prospects in the unproven play we first remove the common
chance from each prospect's overall chance. The common chance being the play chance, we are left with just
the prospect specific chance. The prospects are now "independent" and we can consolidate them. Then at the
end we factor back in the common chance.

In our three prospect example:

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1. Remove the play chance: each prospect has a specific chance of 20%.

2. Calculate the chance of success of the "independent" prospects: ICOS = 1 - { (1-0.2) x (1-0.2) x (1-
0.2) } = 49%.

3. Factor back in the 60% play chance: COS = ICOS x 0.6 = 29%.

With 5 prospects the chance of success is 40%, and with 10, 54%.

This is the method that REP uses when consolidating prospects in a play.

More subtlety is available because both play chance and prospect specific risk are themselves composites. Play
chance is divided into reservoir, seal and source chances; prospect specific chance into trap, reservoir, seal
and charge chances. Depending on the circumstances, some or all of these chances can be defined as common
between inputs to a consolidation.

Consolidation Forms
The circumstances that are recognized by REP are:

1. Segments in a Prospect
Prospect segments are areas of a prospect which have different (or - more properly - not necessarily identical)
prospect specific risks.

For example, you may have a prospect with a fault up the middle. Drilling one side of the fault may not (and
most probably does not) prove the existence of hydrocarbon on the other. Before any drilling, the prospect
specific risk of each segment may or may not be the same. If you drill a successful well in one segment, the
prospect specific risk of that segment becomes 100% (proven). The chance of hydrocarbon in the other
segment most probably increases, but not to 100%. In other words, by hitting good in segment A you remove
some of the risk from segment B, but not all of it. In terms of individual chances before and after drilling A you
might have something like:

Both Unproven A Proven

A B A B Common

90 70 100 78 yes
Trap

70 70 100 100 yes


Reservoir

80 70 100 70 no
Seal

90 90 100 100 yes


Migration

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45 31 100 55
Total

Examination of this table shows the following:

Before drilling, the trap chance in B is lower (riskier) than in A. After drilling A, B's trap chance increases,
implying that some elements of the trap risk are common to both A and B.

After drilling A, the reservoir chance in B goes to 100. This means that the reservoir chance elements in A are
the same as B and proving A's reservoir also proves B's. The reservoir chance is therefore common. The same
is true of the migration chance.

Proving A's seal does not alter the chance of a seal in B. Therefore the seal chances are independent (not
common).

Note: Risks are either common or not, there is no allowance for degree. You cannot say that 50% of the trap
chance in A is shared with B; it is all or nothing. The segment with the highest chance determines the common
chance.

Also, if you specify a chance to be common, it is common to all the prospects being consolidated. Separate
consolidations must be made, and the consolidations consolidated, if this is not the case.

By definition, segments of a prospect must be in the same play; therefore, the play chance elements for each
segment must be common.

2. Prospects in a Play
In this consolidation, all of the play chances are common, but none of the prospect specific chances are. You
cannot link (or unlink) individual risk elements.

3. Stacked Plays
This form of consolidation envisages plays stacked in a vertical sense, perhaps being tested by a single well -
though of course this need not be the case. The prospects to be consolidated are in different plays, and their
prospect specific chances are not common. However, some or all elements of the play chance (reservoir, seal
and source) may be made common to all the prospects.

4. General

In general consolidations there is no common chance.

5. Stacked Prospects
This is the most flexible form of consolidation, in the sense that any or all of the individual chance elements
may be made common. The geological realisation of the circumstances in which combinations of play and
prospect risks may be made common or not is left to the user.

Another Example
There are three prospects being consolidated, P1, P2 and P3, with chances as shown in the table. The common
chance row is in red and shows the common chance for each category, should that category be defined as
common. Note that where any of the individual prospect chance in any category is 100%, there can be no
common chance (no common chance is equivalent to a common chance of 100%: if this seems odd, think of it
in terms of risk. If there is no risk (chance=100%) there is no risk to share).

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Play Chance % Prospect Specific Chance %

Reser Sourc Reservo


Prospect Seal Trap Seal Charge GPOS
voir e ir

P1 70 100 100 100 60 100 80 34

P2 70 100 100 100 80 100 40 22

P3 70 100 100 80 70 90 50 18

(max=
Common 70 100 100 100 80 100 80
45)

Stacked prospect Comm


Common chances GPOS
consolidations: on

100
1. General 58
(none)

2. Prospects in a Play x x x 70 51

3. Stacked Prospects
x x x x 56 47
(1)

4. Stacked Prospects
x x x x x x x 45 41
(2)

Now look at the consolidation cases:

1. A General consolidation: by definition there is no common chance.

2. A consolidation of Prospects in a Play: only play chances are common (and in this case, only the reservoir
has any risk so making the seal and source chances common has no effect).

3. & 4. These are Stacked Prospect consolidations. In case 3 an arbitrary selection of chances are made
common. In case 4, everything is common. But even in case 4 there is still some "residual" risk (for example,
prospect P2 still has only a 50% chance of a successful charge even if the common element of the charge
chance (80%) is proven). That is why the common chance is not the same as the GPOS.

Common chance with an amplitude modifier


The operation of common chance is more complicated if the risking scheme allows an amplitude modifier. This
is because the modifier A is an addition (or subtraction) to the "standard" multiplicative geological chance G.
(Note, if the thought of an equation make you feel weak at the knees, skip to the last two paragraphs of this
section.)

GPOS = G+A

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= Gtrap x Greservoir x Gsource ....etc. +A

For consolidation the GPOS for each prospect is divided into a common element Cm and a specific element Sp:

GPOS = Cm x Sp

As described above in the section on consolidation calculations, the common chance is "taken out" of the GPOS
for each prospect, the prospects consolidated using the specific chance, and the common chance reapplied at
the end to the final result. For this to work with an amplitude modifier it must be converted to a multiplicative
factor A':

GPOS = G+A

= G x A'

A' = 1 + (A/G)

and the calculation can use A' as if was just another chance.

The problem is that sometimes it cannot work. Consider a prospect with G=48%, A=20% and so GPOS=68%

A' = 1 + (0.2/0.48)

= 1.42

Now suppose you make G common and A not:

GPOS = Cm x Sp

0.68 = 0.48 x Sp

So the specific chance = 0.68 / 0.42 = 142% - which is not definitely not allowed!

You can think of the amplitude modifier as a quantitative way of modifying one or more of the underlying
geological chances - it is not a risk itself. Therefore if you say: the underlying active geological chances are all
common, it is necessarily the case that the amplitude modifier must also be common. Similarly, if you say that
the amplitude modifier is common, then at least some of the geological risk must be common - enough, in
fact, to ensure you don't get chances greater than 100%.

In the common chance entry dialogs, the common chance goes red if the combination of specified common
chances is invalid.

3.2.5 Dependent variables

In a standard Monte-Carlo analysis, the process uses random values for each of the input variables,
which implicitly assumes that there is no relationship between them. In real life (or in hydrocarbon
exploration, which may or may not be the same thing) this is often not the case.

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In a consolidation context, there are two forms of dependency: risk and variable. Risk dependency is
discussed elsewhere under the heading common risk. Here we are concerned with variable
dependency, which applies when one or more of an underlying prospect's input variables (for example,
net-to-gross) is related to that in another of the input prospects.

In any one consolidation, an input variable marked as common (or shared) is assumed to be shared in
all the prospects to be consolidated.

Do not be surprised to observe that with undiscovered reserves (i.e. GPOS<100%), using dependent
variables has very little effect on the results. This is because the results distribution is so strongly
influenced by the input GPOS's. In a typical consolidation of four prospects at 20% chance of success,
each successful iteration has usually just one, sometimes two, very occasionally three and very rarely
four successful prospects; so the variable dependency has little opportunity to make a difference,
especially at the low end.

The entry dialog is very simple:

You decide which variable(s) are shared, check the box, and enter a degree of dependency.

Consolidation variable dependencies are of relative type, and can be either positive or negative. This
means that the dependency is though the sampling, so that a high sample value chosen for one
variable will lead to a high (if the dependency is positive) sample value being chosen for the others. For
more information about this (albeit in a prospect context) or if you have insomnia click here.

If the dependency is negative, the choice of value of the variable in the first input determines the
values of all the rest, all of which depend negatively on it. It is clear what is going on if there are just
two inputs, but if there are more the results may be less easy to support.

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The Plot button brings up a dialog where input variables (with or without dependency) from two
prospects are plotted against each other. Choose the variable to plot in the Variables tab, and the
prospects for the x- and y-axes from the Prospects tab. Here is an example of spill point with 80%
dependency:

The plot is constructed by running a short consolidation and noting the values of the two variables, so
it does represent what will happen when you do the real thing. Note that it may be a bit ragged at the
extrema, especially with normal and log-normal distributions. This is because the end "bins" can be
rather wide, and are sub-sampled. The dependency on is bin number, and not on sub-sampled bin
number. The error is negligible.

3.2.6 Dependent models

Where input prospects have different models, it is possible to link those models when consolidating.
For example, you may have a couple of horizons in a well which may have either oil or gas, but you
believe that they will both have the same hydrocarbon type. You can link the models so that if, in any
given iteration, Prospect 1 has oil, then so does Prospect 2. Models are linked through their names.

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The input dialog is extremely simple:

Model This column shows the names of all the models in the input prospect set.

Shared Check if this model is to be shared (linked)

Dependency The degree of dependency (linkage). By default, this is 100%. See how it works.

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How it works

For a given iteration, REP chooses a model for each prospect, starting with the one at the top of the
list. Suppose the chosen model is marked as shared. Now when choosing the model for the next
prospect the program looks to see if the shared model is defined. If it is, the model chances are
adjusted according to the degree of dependency. With 100% dependency the shared model will
definitely be chosen. (In fact the the degree of dependency is really a scale between the independent
model chance and 100% model chance. Obviously the other model chances will decrease of go to
zero.)

Note that you need to share all dependent models. In the example above both the oil model and the
gas models need to be shared. If you shared only one of them - for example, oil - then the logic is that
if the oil model is chosen in Prospect 1, then Prospect 2 will definitely have oil (100% dependency). But
if Prospect 1 is gas, then Prospect 2 could be either oil or gas, depending on the original model
chances.

3.2.7 Economic cut-offs

As in prospect calculations, an economic cut-off allow you to define minimum amounts of recoverable oil and
gas which must be discovered for a field (or group of fields) to be economic. You may define a cut-off for oil or
gas or both. If either cut-off exceeded, the result is an "economic success". (See Prospects: economic cut-
offs.)

Additionally in consolidations you have the option to apply economic cut-offs to the input prospects and
consolidations.

Which to use (and you can use both) depends entirely on what you are consolidating. If you are consolidating
different horizons in a well, the economic cut-off would be applied to the final result. But if you are
consolidating fields or prospects which share no cost, then normally you would consolidate the economic
numbers rather than the technical; so you'd use the economic criteria in the input files, and not apply any to
the final distribution.

In some cases it will be a combination of both, and at that point you will probably need to make a few
compromises. There is no easy solution and advanced economic modelling software may be your only hope.

The liquids phase used can be either recoverable oil, condensate liquids, total recoverable oil or BOE. The gas
phase can be recoverable gas, gas from condensate or total recoverable gas.

The reserve used in the calculations are the whole trap numbers. When you are looking at a results graph, the
cut-off is shown as a vertical line. If the graph is showing whole trap reserves, the line will be in the right
place. If you are showing "company share" data, the line will still be in the right place, but it will be at the cut-
off times company share ("NRI").

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Application

Use The economic criteria in the input files are applies before the data are fed into the consolidation
economic
criteria in
input files

Use Enter criteria below, which will be applied to the result of the consolidation. If the box is unchecked, you
economic cannot enter any numbers below.
criteria
applied to
final
distribution

Oil

Unit Unit in which the oil cut-off is specified. To change it, choose an option in units box below.

Apply to Apply the cut-off to oil or condensate or total liquids or BOE

Cut-off Enter the economic cut-off (minimum) for oil. Leave blank (not zero!) if you don't want to set a cut-off for
liquids.

Gas

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Unit Unit in which the gas cut-off is specified. To change it, choose an option in units box below.

Apply to Apply the cut-off to gas or gas from condensate or total gas

Cut-off Enter the economic cut-off (minimum) for gas Leave blank (not zero!) if you don't want to set a cut-off for
gas.

Units Select the units required

3.3 Understanding the results


Understanding the results is by no means the easiest part of using REP. It can be even harder to explain what
they mean to others. This section makes a brief attempt.

The important thing to remember is that for undrilled prospects (i.e. where the chance of success is less than
100%) there are two numbers AT LEAST which must be used to describe the possible outcomes. These are:
chance of success and, in the case of success, some measure of volume. Most commonly, the measure of
volume used is the mean; some prefer the P50 or median. REP calculates these and all the other P levels (P90,
P10 etc.) and these should always be to hand.

The results of prospect/field evaluations, play analysis and consolidations are similar in presentation. On the
results sheet you will find a numerical summary, and a graph.

The graph has two curves: the cumulative probability distribution, which starts on the left at 100% probability,
and drops to the right to 0%. The other curve, usually a distorted bell-shape, is the relative probability
distribution. These two curves have the same meaning for input as for output and are discussed, in the former
context, in the section titled 'Entering Probability Distributions'.

From the cumulative curve you can read the probability that a particular reserve level will be exceeded. On the
reserves (x) axis choose the reserve level, and read off on the probability (y)-axis the probability that this
value will be exceeded. Alternatively, work the other way to discover, for any probability level, the associated
reserves. The numerical values for unrisked P90, P50 and P10 shown in the table are simply readings from the
cumulative probability curve.

Note that REP only shows the unrisked curve: earlier versions of the program also showed the risked curve,
and tabulated values of risked P90, P50 and P10. These were removed, because they tended to cause
confusion.

The relative probability curve is rather less useful, but its shape does give an idea of the uncertainly associated
with the calculations. The tighter the shape, the less the uncertainty. The highest point of the curve is the
mode, or value most likely to occur. The mode should not be confused with the mean, which is the average of
all the iteration results.

You can think of the relative probability curve as a histogram of the results of each Monte-Carlo iteration. Note
that the curve does not have a particular y-axis scale, and in fact REP adjusts it so that the modal value
always corresponds to a y-axis value of 75. For presentation reasons it is highly smoothed.

The mathematical relationship between the two curves on the graph is that the cumulative curve is the
integration of the relative probability curve.

Most calculations of reserves result in a skewed distribution, tending to log-normal shape. In this case, the
mode is less than the P50, which is less than the mean. This begs the question: if one value is to be used,
which one should it be? Most commentators prefer the mean and this seems to be generally used in the

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industry; however, some people do prefer to use the P50, especially in the case of proven reserves. The mode
is never considered; but given the fact that all the studies that I know of show that companies overestimate
their expected discoveries by a factor of about 50%, perhaps more consideration should be given to its use.

In general it is true to say that the difference between the mean and the P50 is due to the "romance" of the
prospect. Most geologists like to include in their thinking the possibility, however remote, of a wonderful
success. This very high risk, very high outcome case affects the mean much more than the P50. Perhaps this
is why you will often find engineers and accountants using the P50 and explorationists using the mean. The
problem for the engineers and accountants is that every now and again (and often to their chagrin), the
romance case is realised (as an engineer, I know that there is nothing in the world more irritating than an
explorationist who has been proved pessimistic).

One measure of how much romance is in the air is the probability level at the mean, shown on the table of
results ("P-level at mean"). It will normally be around 35-45 %, If it is lower than this, you should be asking
the question, 'if I only have a one-in-three (or less) chance of achieving the mean, is the mean the right figure
to use?'

The risked mean (also known as the expectation) is the product of the unrisked mean and the geological
chance of success. It is an unpopular figure with some people. Indeed, they say that anyone who uses this
number should be locked up and if they additionally use the term expectation then the key should be thrown
away! The present writer considers this to be harsh but fair. The reasons for the custodial sentence are, firstly,
that risk (chance of success) and reward (discovered volume) are quite separate issues - almost orthogonal -
and both must be considered. Only if you are rather stupid and cannot grasp two numbers at the same time
should it be necessary to fudge things and multiply them together. Secondly, it a number without physical
meaning (and especially without anything to do with expectation.) For example, you could have a prospect
with a minimum reserve of 20bcf, an unrisked mean of 50bcf and a chance of success of 10%. The risked
mean is therefore 5bcf, less than the minimum possible. This can really irk the purist.

The risked mean is used for prospect ranking. Other things being equal, it is best to drill up the prospect with
the highest risked mean. The trouble is that other things are never equal. All ranking must always be done on
a money basis. Even then using the highest risked NPV ignores vital human factors such as corporate strategy,
political risk and personal bias.

However, so popular is risked mean that REP does calculate and display it.

If you are using economic criteria, two other key statistics are shown. The mean with economic cut-off is the
mean value with the economic criteria only (i.e. without the geological risking). It is equal to the unrisked
mean times the chance of economic success. It will, of course, be lower than the unrisked mean.

The mean of economically successful cases is the mean result of all economically (and therefore technically)
successful cases. It is always higher than the unrisked mean.

The chance of economic success shown on the results sheet is the chance of economic success assuming
technical success. The overall chance of success is the chance of technical success times the chance of
economic success.

The results of consolidations are analogous but not the same as those of prospect/field calculations. This is
because in consolidations there are no unrisked figures - not because they cannot be calculated but because
they are almost meaningless. Instead of "unrisked", consolidations use the concept of "success". A success
case in a consolidation is one where one or more of the fields or prospects being consolidated is successful. As
with the unrisked case in prospect calculations, the success case in consolidations has a non-zero minimum -
by definition, you have discovered something. However, it does not mean that every input prospect has been a
discovery.

You can see this quite clearly if you consolidate two risky prospects of significantly different sizes. The relative
probability curve will show two peaks - a "bimodal" distribution. The lower peak represents the cases where
only the smaller prospect is successful, the higher peak the cases where only the larger is successful.
Somewhere - probably lost - in the high end of the graph will be the rare cases that both are successful.

3.4 Calculations

Calculations can be run by clicking Calculate | Calculate from the Consolidations Summary screen. Or

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just click the Go icon.

There are six other options on the Calculate menu: Outcome distributions, Drilling success envelope,
Iteration control, Options, Data Points. and Statistical stability.

Outcome distributions

For each outcome in a consolidation the chance of that outcome, and the P90, P50, P10 and mean
volumes are written to a csv file which can be readily loaded up in a spreadsheet (and directly from the
program).

You can only run this calculation when all the consolidation inputs are prospects.

Drilling success envelope

This process runs the consolidation with 1, then 2, then 3... etc. entries in the order they are listed in the
entry table. The results show the expected volume envelope, GPOS and EPOS as the "drilling program"
proceeds. The table gives the results at each step, and these data can be pasted into Excel using ctrl-c
(in REP) and paste in excel, in the usual way.

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Click the Run button to start the process (which can be quite lengthy, since with n entries the the
consolidations is run n times). The Plot button gives a plot like this:

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The buttons the top control where the legend is placed (one option is not to have one) and whether
you show the names ("abc") in the legend or the meaning of the boxes.

Iteration control

In this screen you can specify whether you wish to use a fixed or floating seed for the random number
generator. Computers are unable to generate truly random numbers. Rather, they are given a starting
number and from that derive a random(ish) sequence of numbers. But given the same starting point,
they generate the same sequence of numbers.

If you use a fixed seed, successive calculations on the same data set and with the same number of
iterations will give identical results.

If you specify a floating seed, the program will derive a seed based on the time of day (hours, minutes,
seconds and hundredths of seconds) at which you start the calculations. It is most unlikely that
successive calculations will have the same starting seed. Using different seeds, the results calculated for
the same input data will be different. The amount of difference will depend on the input data and on

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the number of iterations.

Using a fixed seed is by no means consistent with the spirit of the Monte-Carlo method. But it is
sometimes useful to be able to precisely duplicate previous results (if your photocopier has broken
down, for instance), or if you are producing management reports. (Some company employees consider
that Management gets very confused and bitter if numbers change for no obvious reason, and are
liable to go around sacking people indiscriminately. They are, of course, quite wrong to think this.
Good managers do not need an excuse.)

You may also specify the number of iterations in a calculation run. Increasing the number of iterations
increases the stability of the results, but the calculations take longer. For most data sets, 2000 iterations
gives reasonably consistent results. Modern machines are so fast that 20,000 iterations of a prospect
only takes a few seconds.

Iterations

Enter the number of iterations required


No.

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Algorithm

Algorithm Choose the type of algorithm required

Seed

Seed Choose the type of seed required

Control

Close after calculation Check to close dialog after calculation

Set Default Click to set these parameters as default

Calculation options

The only calculation option available is to run a consolidation setting all the underlying prospect risks
to 100%.

People really like this option because it gives large numbers. But in a consolidation of undiscovered
reserves, the chance of every prospect being a discovery is small, and the more of them there are the
smaller it is. The message in the dialog when you choose to use this option is not tongue-in-cheek.

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To calculate the "unrisked" results click the calculate button. The chance of the outcome is shown in
the dialog.

When you close the dialog, the option is unset; all further calculations are done in the normal way, with
the true underlying prospect chances.

You cannot save a file in which the results have been calculated using this option.

Data points

Consolidation data points are very similar to the Data points in prospect calculations, however, rather
than comparing two probability distributions, the plots compare one probability distribution for two
input prospects prospects.

Choose the variable to plot on the first tab labelled "Variables", and the prospects for x- and y-axes on
the second tab labelled "Prospects"

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Plot format

Normal mode

Line mode

Text

Pick points

Redraw

Zoom in

Set X

Set Y

Zoom out

Reset

Set data filters

Save plot

Save plot template

Print

Storing and saving iteration results

You can store the results of each iteration in a consolidation. Choose the menu item "Calculate | Data
points | Store points". Then run a calculation. After this is complete, choose "Calculate | Data points |
Save data points". You are prompted for a file name, and the results are written to it. The file is in
comma-delimited ASCII format, and can be read into XL directly (in fact, when it has finished writing
the file, you are asked whether you wish to view the results, and if you choose "View" REP will launch
Excel).

Null results are not written to the output file. The iterations are sorted in order of increasing total BOE,
so if you want a case representing the P50, for example. see how many lines there are in the
spreadsheet and go to the middle one. Of course it can be readily manipulated in XL anyway.

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If your consolidation has consolidation in it, the underlying prospect/field (or dummy prospect) values
are shown, but not the intermediate consolidation results.

Note that some consolidations can be large, in terms of both the number of things being consolidated
and the number of iterations required. It is possible that the storage space required exceeds the
memory available on your machine, in which case this facility will not work. Please let us know this is
commonly an issue.

Statistical stability

An occasional question is: how many iterations should I use? This is much more pertinent in a
consolidation than in a single volume calculation (unless you are using prospect models) because in a
standard prospect case every iteration is a success, with the chance of success calculated separately. In
a consolidation, one iteration can have many (or all) input prospects unsuccessful. REP tries to ensure
that each phase - oil, gas etc. - of each input prospect has at least the standard number (by default,
20,000) successful cases in the simulation. But even this may not be quite enough if the prospects are
very risky, and/or have large uncertainty in terms of P10/P90 range.

In this facility. you run a number of simulations ("passes") with a specified maximum number of
iterations with random seed and see the variation of each of the key results: P90, P50, P10 and mean.
The variation is also expressed as P90, P50, P10 and mean; this confusion is intentional and is to
encourage you not to ask awkward question in future, please.

Here's the dialog, post-calculation:

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Phase Choose which phase (GIP, total oil, total gas etc). to display

Passes The number of full consolidation passes you want to do. Too many of them
(especially with lots of iterations) can take a significant amount of time

Iterations The number of iterations in each simulation pass. Leave this blank to use the the
number calculated by REP (based on your default number of iterations if necessary
adjusted upwards for input variable chance).

Results The columns are the consolidation result, the rows the variation in that result.

Spread% This is (P10-P90)/P50, as a percentage. It's a measure of the uncertainly in the


simulation. The more maximum iteration, the less the spread should be.

Precision < Click the buttons to decrease of increase the precision with which the results are
> displayed.

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Run Run the calculation

At the end of each pass, the table updates, and you should see the spreads steadily stabilise (though
an "outlier" pass can rock them). As noted above, it can be a slow business, so the "Stop" button in the
progress window may stave off terminal tedium. Note that it will only stop after the current pass is
completed.

3.5 Tools
REP provides its users with an array of tools, besides the fundamental module elements, in order to further evaluate and present
consolidations.

3.5.1 Input data plots

Graphs of the input data can better help your understanding of the consolidation process.

To produce these graphs, choose Tools | Input data plots (from the consolidation menu) or when specifying
the input data files, click the [Plots] button.

There are two styles: graphs (cross-plots) and input distributions. Cross-plots are risk (GPOS) vs. reserve, risk
vs. uncertainty (P10/P90 ratio) and uncertainty vs. reserve. The input distributions can be either risked or
unrisked but note that the unrisked graph can be more trouble than it is worth. Examples are shown here:

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The Options tab allows you to control what is plotted and how.

To recognize which point is which input file, click on the point or distribution. The name or filename of the data
point is shown in the status bar at the bottom of the window. You can also label the points on the cross-plots.

Click Result in the Show box to show the consolidation result on the plot. This can be a good or bad thing to
do, depending on the level of understanding of your intended audience.

On cross-plots, prospects are shown in blue, consolidations in red and the consolidation result is shown in
green.

The phase (oil, gas, etc.) mirrors that which you are showing on the main consolidation summary screen.
Change the phase (or the units) on that screen and this one is updated.

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Phase

Oil etc Click the phase you want to show. If it flicks back to the one it started with, it will be
because that phase is not present.

P Level

P90, P50, Choose for which probability level to show the volume
P10,
Mean

Share

Trap, Choose to show whole trap or company share volumes


Company

Labels

Labels Check to show labels on the plot

Name/ .. and whether to show the prospect name or the file name
File

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Show

Ranges This shows the input data range as a bar P90 - P10

Result Also shows the result (in green).

Scale

Lin/Log The x-axis (volume) can be either linear or logarithmic

3.5.2 Reality plots

The central limits theorem is fundamental to statistics and states that if you take a set of independent
randomly distributed variables, sample each one and add them up, then the probability distribution of the
totals you get by doing this lots of times tends to a normal (bell shaped) distribution.

A corollary is, that if you multiply (rather than add) the input samples, the resulting distribution of products
tends to a log-normal shape.

In the context of prospect evaluation, the theorem can be restated: where the fundamental processes
controlling the amount of hydrocarbon reserve are multiplicative, the resulting reserve probability distribution
should approach a log-normal shape.

So when REP multiplies GRV, net-to-gross, porosity, hydrocarbon saturation etc., the answer usually looks log-
normal - and you can see this from any REP calculation.

You can draw a reality plot for any probability distribution, including a consolidated distribution. In this case
you are adding stuff up, and the central limits theorem indicates that the resulting distribution should be (or
should tend towards) normal. Too bad!

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3.5.3 ECO sensitivity

The sensitivity screen allows you to change the cut-off (use the slider or type in the new cut-off) and see how
the various chances, P levels and means react. Click [Plot] for a useful graphical display.

Changing the cut-off in the sensitivity screen does not change the basic cut-off used in the calculations. If you
want to set a cut-off chosen here to be the prospect cut-off, click the [Set] button.

[Note: If you do not wish to use a cut-off then ensure you leave the cut-off field blank. If you enter "0"...]

ECO - Liquid

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Economic cut-off (Gross)

Phase to which the cut-off applies


To

Enter the economic minimum for oil


Cutoff

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Denotes the unit by which cut-off is measured (mmstb)


Units

Click to set this cut-off for the prospect


Set

Chance of Success

Shows GPOS chance of success


Geological (GPOS)

Shows economic chance of success


Economic

Shows overall chance of success


Overall (EPOS)

Means

Shows unrisked mean


Unrisked

Shows unrisked mean with ECO


With ECO

Shows fully risked mean


Fully risked

Success

Shows mean
Mean

Shows P90
P90

Shows P50
P50

Shows P10
P10

Show

Choose to plot net volumes or whole trap volumes


Show

Click to show a plot


Plot

ECO - Gas

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Economic cut-off (Gross)

Phase to which the cut-off applies


To

Enter the economic minimum for gas


Cutoff

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Denotes the unit by which cut-off is measured (bcf)


Units

Click to set this cut-off for the prospect


Set

Chance of Success

Shows GPOS chance of success


Geological (GPOS)

Shows economic chance of success


Economic

Shows overall chance of success


Overall (EPOS)

Means

Shows unrisked mean


Unrisked

Shows unrisked mean with ECO


With ECO

Shows fully risked mean


Fully risked

Success

Shows mean
Mean

Shows P90
P90

Shows P50
P50

Shows P10
P10

Show

Choose to plot net volumes or whole trap volumes


Show

Click to show a plot


Plot

Plot options

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Sensitivity

Check to show a sensitivity plot


Sensitivity

3.5.4 Decision trees

A Decision Tree is diagrammatic representation of a consolidation. There are two types of decision tree:

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a. A summary of the consolidation hierarchy ("basic tree").

b. The consolidation with all the main outcomes shown ("outcomes tree - compressed"). Subsidiary
consolidations are shown as a single entry.

Consolidations can be complicated, especially when consolidating consolidations. The good thing
about a decision tree view is that it can can make clear what is going on, and especially if you have
common risk.

It is also useful when trying to explain (often with much difficulty) why it is that you can't just add up
prospective resource volumes - you must always account for risk. It is surprisingly common that people
say: "I have three prospects of 60, 70 and 90 mmstb all with a 20% chance of success. I should discover
220 mmstb." Success in all three prospects (the 220 mmstb number) is possible, but the chance of it is
less than 1% - not an attractive probability. And yet drilling programs have been funded based on such
flawed reasoning....

You will know that such deception is in play when you are asked for an "unrisked consolidation" (i.e.
with all the prospect GPOS set to 100%). In such a circumstance, dust off your CV. Your employer or
client is on course to go belly up.

For help on production profiles (which can be made from a decision tree) click here.

In the decision trees, prospects are shown in yellow boxes and subsidiary consolidations in blue .

Some examples:

This shows a "basic view" of a consolidation of prospect Gamma with the consolidated result of prospects
Alpha and Beta:

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The same setup can be shown with outcomes. To do this click the "Outcomes tree (compressed)" icon :

Consolidation "Alpha+Beta can be shown by double-clicking in the blue box:

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Note that the consolidation has common chance: this is shown as a first branch in the tree, "common
success" and "common failure". Note that "common success" means that the common risk elements
work, but if there are other, non-common risks there is still the possibility of a zero result, as shown
above.

To go back to the previous decision tree view, click the back icon :

You can expand the "with outcomes (compressed)" view by clicking the "with outcomes
(expanded)"icon . This expands any subsidiary consolidations.

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Note that the consolidation box is still displayed, but has no volume associated, this is moved to the
underlying prospects, and similarly the consolidation GPOS (the branch is marked 100%, since this is
after all a decision tree).

Display Options
To the left of the decision tree, there are a number of options which control what is displayed on the tree.
These include:

• Oil/Gas/BOE: Where applicable, display results for oil, gas, or barrels of oil equivalent.

• Volume/Expectation: Display results as volume or expectations.

• The box size can be made larger or smaller by clicking these icons.

• Order by: you can choose to order the input variables by position in the list (the default),
expectation/risked mean, volume (mean) or chance of success (EPOS).

• Maximum number: this limits the display to the first n variables in the list, where n is a number
greater than 2, entered here. If you have ordered your input variables by mean or risked mean,
this allows you to look at the the n "most attractive". Since most companies have limited drilling
capacity, this may be a very realistic.

• Name - you can choose how to label the boxes.

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Other options

If you right click a prospect or consolidation box, the menu loads the prospect or consolidation into
the usual dialog, where you can edit it and so on.

If you double click an outcomes box, REP will draw a production profile for the prospects that are
successful in that particular outcome. See Consolidated production profiles

3.5.5 Consolidation hierarchy

When you are consolidating consolidations, it can get pretty complicated. One way to be sure of what is being
consolidated is to view the consolidation "tree" or hierarchy.

Click on the icon to access the Consolidation Hierarchy.

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In this view, the top level consolidation is shown at the top, and the various subsidiary consolidations are
shown as "tree branches" below it.

The standard Windows [-] and [+] symbols indicate a tree node, which is of course always a consolidation. If
there is no tree node, the entry is a prospect.

Before the entry name, there is a symbol:

+ indicates that the entries are part of a general consolidation (without dependent risk)

= indicates that the entries are part of a consolidation with dependent risk

- indicates that the entries are part of a mutually exclusive consolidation.

If you click on an entry, its filename is shown in the status bar at the bottom of the hierarchy window:

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3.5.6 Production profiles

To make production profiles, you need to have a decision tree on the screen, and it needs to be
showing outcomes. If your decision tree is not showing outcomes click the or icon on the
decision tree dialog.

Production profiles are associated with each outcome, and are calculated by summing the individual
production profiles of the successful prospects in that outcome. The mean reserve is used as the basis
for the profile, and the profile parameters are set up in the individual prospect definitions.

The control dialog options are:

Menu
items

File Print, exit

Export Export the production data to a csv file. You can immediately open it up in an XL
spreadsheet.

Dialog

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items

Oil, gas Profiles can be drawn for either oil or gas. Where there is oil only or gas only, these options
are greyed.

Volumes Show either net share or whole trap

Shading Sets the shading colours for the profiles

Start dates Shows a table of the prospects, and you can enter or change the start dates (start dates are
a property of the underlying prospect definition).

If you click the "profile" button for a prospect, you can edit the profile parameters.
Remember to save the prospect if you want to keep your changes.

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4 Projects

A project is simply a group of prospects and consolidations. Each project is little more than a list of prospect
and consolidation files. Creating and saving your own projects enables you to open those listed files with a
single click. You can also export project data to XL ,and archive the data

The project menu can be accessed from the main REP dialog, the prospect summary or the
consolidation summary screens.

This help is split into:

Default Project

The project menu

Opening a project

Creating a new project

Importing a project

XL export

Archiving a project

Default Project
In REP there will always be one - and only one - project open at any given point. This is called the current
project.

Any open prospects or consolidations are automatically considered to be part of the current project. Each
prospect and consolidation can be listed within as many projects as you want.

The name of the current project is shown above the prospect and consolidation trees on the summary screen.

In the example above, the current project is the Default project. This is the case whenever you start a REP
session (unless you choose always to open the last project). The Default project is empty at the start of each
session, meaning that none of the information within the Default project can be saved.

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The project menu


The project menu can be accessed in a number of ways, but mostly you get at it from the projects menu item
in the main prospect or consolidation dialogs.

Opening a project
To open a project, choose the "open" option from the menu

Creating a new project


To generate a new project, choose the Save as menu option from the menu

This dialog is shown:

Enter the name of the project and, where applicable, a description. You must also give the project a file name.

Any prospect and/or consolidation files you have open will be added to the new project.

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To add further prospect or consolidation to the current project, simply open that prospect/consolidation in the
usual way. These changes are not automatically saved in the project file. You need to manually save the
project from the project menu.

Project

Name Enter the name of the new project

Description Enter a description of the new project

Project File This should be a valid filename (with a .pjx extension)

> Click to browse for file destination

Importing data from another project


Browse to the project file you want to import. The prospect and consolidation files in the project are added to
the current project.

Exporting project data to XL

You can export all the project data to a new XL worksheet. Click , and choose the options you want
from the dialog:

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The basic template supplied is called prj_extemp.csv and this is an ascii file which can be edited in the
usual way. But the check boxes allow you to export a subset of the full template definition. Click Export
to create the spreadsheet.

Archive
You can send all the project data to an archive folder.

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You need to enter a folder (presumably in some safe and well-backed-up area) and an archive name.

REP makes a new folder called <Archive name> in the archive folder <Archive folder> can copies all the
current project files into it.

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5 Map Digitization
You can reach this module by selecting Maps from the main REP screen or by choosing Maps | Maps entry from the drop-
down menu on the main REP screen.

This help section is split into 11 parts:

• Map Entry

• Surface Definition

• Digitization Window

• Calibration

• Adding a New Contour

• Area/Depth Table

• Editing an Existing Contour

• Saving the Surface File

• Viewing Contour Status

• Viewing Surface File

• Volume Calculations

For information on the Map Digitization task menu see the 'Map Digitization Menu' section.

Map Entry
The Map Entry screen will begin by asking you to choose to create a new surface or else load an existing surface; Input may be
If the SRF file was created using the "New" method, then it
from a previously-saved surface (.SRF) file.
can only be edited in that method - a warning will be issued and the correct method started.

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Data source Choose to create a new surface or load an existing surface

Entry style Choose to digitize surface manually or by using digitizer

If you are creating a new surface, you will now have to specify the location of an image file, from which your surface will be
digitized. You can either use the Browse button to look for your file in the normal way or type the file name in.
Previously used images/surface files are available from the drop list. Once loaded, that image remains on the
screen throughout the digitising session. When you have finished, save the newly-digitised surface to a surface
(.srf) file in your project directory.

Existing surface files can be loaded and edited on-screen. If they have an associated image file they can be
updated because the image is shown on the screen underlying the digitised contours.

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Input image Specify the location of the input image file


file

Output surface Specify the desired location and filename of the output surface file
file

Surface Definition
When you have successfully loaded an image, you will see the Surface Definition screen. This allows you to
identify the surface with its name and a qualifying comment. The four units required for calculations are depth,
area, distance and volume. Next you must enter the surface crest. This is the highest point on the surface, for
which the associated contour area is, by definition, zero. You must then specify the distance between contours
or the contour interval, and finally the first contour, or the lowest point on the surface. After you have entered
your first two contour levels, the program suggests sensible defaults for subsequent levels.

[Note: When you have successfully loaded an existing file, the same Surface Definition Screen confirms the
characteristics of the loaded surface.]

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Surface ID

Name Choose a name for the Surface

Comment Use this field for any relevant comments

Units

Depth Choose the unit for depth

Distance Choose the unit for distance

Area Choose the unit for area

Volume Choose the unit for volume

Contours

Crest Enter the crest contour

Contour Enter the interval between contours


Interval

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First Contour Enter the first contour

Use Check if using a net pay map


Thicknesses

Digitization Window
Here you will see the main graphics screen on which is your underlying map and any contours which have
already been digitised. If this is a new surface you must do a simple calibration in order to determine the base
map scale. The digitisation window is split into two parts, with the tasks menu on the left and the graphics
display on the right.

Calibration
Before doing any digitising, you must calibrate the map. Calibration is essential in configuring distance; it
enables the correct scale conversion from the pixels on your map.

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Instructions

Instructions Instructions for selected calibration option

[Note: Calibration dialog will vary depending on Calibration option - follow on-screen instructions.]

The most common method of calibration is 2 points and distance but there are four ways of doing this:

1) Click on two distinct points and give the corresponding map distance.

2) Click on two distinct points and give the corresponding map co-ordinates.

3) Click on three distinct (non-linear) points and give the corresponding map co-ordinates.

4) Click on four distinct points (points 1 & 2 in X direction, points 3 & 4 in Y direction) and give two
corresponding distances.

If you want to recalibrate for any reason, select Calibrate from the menu.

The first two options presume that the map scale factor is the same in both the x- and y-directions. The third
option allows for different scale factors in the x- and y- directions. It uses three calibration points as opposed
to two. Similarly, the forth option uses four calibration points as opposed to two or three.

Select the appropriate method from the task menu. You will now be in calibration mode. To start, move the
cursor to the first calibration point and left-click. If you are using the two-point methods, double-click at the
second point to set the line. Otherwise left-click at the second point and double-click at the third. Finally, enter
the corresponding distance/coordinate information.

The image may not be a true orthogonal representation of the original map from which it was scanned. It may
have suffered by being squished and squashed by scanners or fax machines and in such a case, it will be
necessary to calculate a map scale in two directions and that is the reason for the third/fourth options above.
If you choose either of the first two options, the program assumes that the map scale in the X direction is the
same as that in the Y direction. Click on your first/second calibration point(s), then double click on the last
one.

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Now you are ready to add or edit digitised contours.

Adding a New Contour


Select Contours | Add New Contour from the tasks menu. There are two ways of adding contours:

1) Peak tracking: this uses the image to automatically track the contour.

2) Manual: Create contours manually.

Use the Add Polygon icon/button or the Contours | Add New Contour menu option to create a new contour.
Position the cursor on the contour and click the left-hand mouse button to create a node. Run around the
contour, clicking as you go. When you've gone right round, double click the left-hand mouse button to end the
contour. After adding a new contour you will be prompted to enter the corresponding contour depth. You can
select a different depth (taken from your table of depths) using the 'Previous depth' and 'Next depth' buttons.

Also on this screen, you can select whether to add or subtract the area contained within this contour from the
total area corresponding to the depth. This is to account for contours that represent a 'hole' rather than a
'peak'. (Imagine contouring a ring doughnut, contours on the outside would be positive, those one the 'inside'
would need to be negative.)

Peak Tracking
The peak tracking method enables you to get a quick and - in most cases - accurate representation of a
contour. It works by tracking the nearest dark contour boundary to the mouse cursor.

To begin, first go to Add Contour mode and choose the Peak Tracking option. Next, move the cursor so that
it is near the boundary of the desired contour. Double-click to start peak tracking. Without holding down any
mouse buttons, roughly trace the contour boundary with the cursor; the tracking should automatically start to

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pick up the boundary.

Peak tracking is not an exact science and so the position of the cursor or the image itself could cause the
tracking to start picking up on the wrong thing. If it does start to go haywire then reverse the direction of the
cursor; the peak tracking will start to undo those bits of the contour that you are tracking. If the tracking in
such a muddle that the undo no longer works, then move the cursor back to the last point of the contour with
which you are happy, and - while holding down the CTRL button - left-click. This will delete everything after
that point.

At first the contour lines will appear will be light-blue. At this point, none of the contour has been 'accepted'.
Left-click to say that the contour, up to that point, is acceptable; this turns the existing part of the contour
dark-blue. Accepted sections cannot be undone, meaning that reversing the cursor direction - either
accidentally or intentionally (e.g. at a fault line) - won't start deleting points.

Double-click to finish adding the contour. Once you've defined the new contour you will still be in Add Contour
mode. Double-click again to start a new contour.

Manual
This is the more traditional method of adding a contour. To start, go to Add Contour mode and select the
Manual radio button. Left-click on the image to start the process. Each left-click adds a new point to the
contour. Double-click to finish.

This method is not as quick as the peak tracking, but is handy for those times that the peak tracking struggles.

Contour depth

Contour depth Enter/edit the depth of new contour [Note: Remember to specify units]

Previous depth Select the previous depth from your table of depths

Next depth Select the next depth from your table of depths

Geometry

Geometry Specify whether contour is hole or peak

Options

Auto-increment Check to automatically increment the contour depth each time / specify contour interval
contour depths

Auto-save the file Check to automatically save the file after every contour is defined

Area/Depth Table
The Area/Depth Table (and plot) is a useful tool to check that you have not made any obvious errors when drawing your
contour.

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Example of a good area/depth plot

Example of an area/depth plot with an obvious mistake

Editing an Existing Contour


Click just within the appropriate contour to select it. If you want to edit the nodes (vertices), you can click and
drag in order to reposition an individual node and extra nodes may be added by holding down the CTRL key
while you click the left-hand mouse button. This is useful for fine-tuning your digitisation. To reposition or

resize the whole contour, unclick the Edit Vertices icon in the toolbar. You will then see a 'frame' of eight
small rectangles surrounding your contour. Drag this frame to move the contour, drag one of the frame points
to resize it.

If you want to change the associated pen colour of the selected contour, click the right-hand mouse button to
see the menu. Select Properties and click on the LINE tab. Choose the new colour, and click [OK].

Saving the Surface File


Having created the digitised surface, you will want to save it for future use. Select File | Save or File | Save
as to create the .srf file. This is an ASCII file which stores surface identification, name of associated bitmap
file, characteristics and co-ordinates of each digitised contour. You must write the map to a surface file if you

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wish to use it for GRV calculations later.

Viewing Contour Status


At any time during the editing process you may look at a summary of contours defined so far. By selecting
Contours | View Contour table from the menu, you will display a table of contours for the current surface
showing depth, pen colour, pen thickness, number of nodes, calculated area under the contour, the area
additivity factor (+/-) and a deletion flag. You may alter any of these settings except number of nodes and
calculated area.

[Note: When you set a delete flag, the contour is not actually deleted from memory, so you may easily
undelete it if you wish. When you save the surface by writing it out to a file, any contours flagged for deletion
are not written.]

[Note: the area additivity factor for each contour is either positive or negative and it reflects the contribution
of that contour to the calculation of total area. Generally, the total area under a given depth is calculated as
the sum of the contribution from each contour at that depth, and if the contour represents a hole, its area may
be subtracted from the total. All area additivity factors are assumed positive unless amended by the user.]

Table

Depth - ft Indicates the depth (in feet) of your contour

Colr Indicates the colour of your contour line

Thk Indicates the thickness of your contour line

Nodes Indicates the number of nodes used on contour line

Area - acre Indicates the area of your contour

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+/- Indicates whether or not contour is a depression

Delete Check box to flag for deletion

Dialog

Delete Click to delete flagged contours

Refresh Table Click to refresh table after changes

Refresh Map Click to refresh map after changes

Viewing Surface File


Select View/Surface File from the menu and you will see the current ASCII surface file.

Volume Calculations

Volume Calculations are performed using one or more existing surface files. Obviously these must be
generated before attempting to calculate any volumes as there is no facility for digitization in this part of the
program. Within REP, these volume calculations are of interest only as a check on the digitization, since the
main volume and reserve estimates are done in the Prospect Calculation section.

You can store the definition of a volume calculation itself as a file.

The first screen, calculation definition, allows you to give your calculation a title and asks for the type of
calculation to be performed. The choice will be to use either top and base surfaces or just a top surface,
assuming a constant reservoir thickness or a predetermined reservoir shape. Surface files are selected in the
usual way by entering the filename, extension and path.

The second screen, volume calculations, allows the calculation of reservoir volumes at specified depths for
either structural or net/gross interests. Depths of interest are entered in the left column and the corresponding
volumes are immediately displayed in the adjacent column.

The calculations can then be written to file.

5.1 Map Digitization- New Method

You can reach this module by selecting 'Maps - New Method' from the main REP screen.

The digitisation window is split into two parts, with the tasks menu on the left and the graphics display
on the right.

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Starting from an image

Input may be from a previously-saved surface (.srf) file, or new data.

If you are creating a new surface, you will be asked to specify the image file which contains your
contour map. You can either use the Browse button to look for your file in the normal way or type the
file name in. Previously used images/surface files are available from the drop list. Once loaded, that
image remains on the screen throughout the digitising session. When you have finished, save the
newly-digitised surface to a surface (.srf) file in your project directory.

Currently supported image formats:BMP, JPG, PCX, TIF, TGA. Note that BMP files can be previewed, you
will have to specifically view other formats. There is a limit to how large an image can be, depending
on the capabilities of your PC. If REP fails to load the image, try using a graphics package (e.g
PaintShop Pro) to reduce the size. If you don't have access to a suitable graphics package, send it to
support@logicomep.com and we will convert it for you.

When you have successfully loaded an image, you will see the Surface Definition Screen. This allows
you to identify the surface with its name and a qualifying comment. You can select to digitise a
structure map or a netpay thickness map. The four units required for calculations are depth, area,
distance and volume. You must enter the contour depth values, starting with the surface crest (the
highest point on the surface, for which the associated contour area is, by definition, zero) and followed
by the depth of the first contour and the contour interval.

Your underlying map will appear on the graphics display.

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Calibration

Before doing any digitising, you must calibrate the map. There are three ways of doing this:

1) click on two distinct points and give the corresponding map distance

2) click on two distinct points and give the corresponding map co-ordinates

3) click on three distinct (non-linear) points and give the corresponding map co-ordinates.

If you want to recalibrate for any reason, select Calibrate from the menu.

There is more information on the calibration here

Adding a new contour

Select Add New Contour from the tasks menu. There are two ways of adding contours:

1) Auto tracking: this uses the image to automatically track the contour

2) Manual: Create contours manually

Contour adding is discussed in greater depth here

Editing an existing contour

Click just within the appropriate contour to select it. If you want to edit the nodes (vertices), hover over
the map with the following keys held down:

None - the cursor will change shape when you are "over" a vertex - drag the point using the LH mouse
button

Shift - the cursor will change when you are close to a line - click the LH button to add an extra point

Ctrl - the cursor will change when you are "over" a vertex - click the LH button to delete the point.

If you want to change the associated pen colour of the selected contour, click the right-hand mouse
button to see a menu. Select the Contour Style option then choose the new colour, and click [Set] then
[OK].

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Saving the surface file

Having created the digitised surface, you will want to save it for future use. Select File/Save or File/Save
As … to create the 'srf' file. This is an ASCII file which stores surface identification, name of associated
bitmap file, characteristics and co-ordinates of each digitised contour. You must write the map to a
surface file if you wish to use it for GRV calculations later.

Viewing Contour Status

At any time during the editing process you may look at a summary of contours defined so far. By
selecting Contour Table from the menu, you will display a table of contours for the current surface
showing depth, pen colour, pen thickness, number of nodes, calculated area under the contour, the
area additivity factor (+/-) and a deletion flag. You may alter any of these settings (except number of
nodes and calculated area) and when you press [OK] the display will be refreshed with the new
settings.

(Note: the area additivity factor for each contour is either positive or negative, and it reflects the
contribution of that contour to the calculation of total area. Generally, the total area under a given
depth is calculated as the sum of the contribution from each contour at that depth, and if the contour
represents a hole, its area may be subtracted from the total. All area additivity factors are assumed
positive unless amended by the user.)

Loading an existing surface (.SRF file)

If you are loading an existing surface, you can use the Load Button on the Load Surface File screen to
take the areas from the file that you select and immediately populate the Area/Depth table. If the SRF
file was created using the older "Standard" method, then it can only be edited in that method - a
warning will be issued and the correct method started.

You will be asked to specify the surface file which contains your contour map. You can either use the
Browse button to look for your file in the normal way or type the file name in. Previously used images/
surface files are available from the drop list. Once loaded, that image remains on the screen
throughout the digitising session. When you have finished, save the newly-digitised surface to a
surface (.srf) file in your project directory.

Existing surface files can be loaded and edited on-screen. If they have an associated image file they can
be updated because the image is shown on the screen underlying the digitised contours.

When you have successfully loaded an surface, you will be taken directly to the main digitising window.
If you want to check the surface identification data, choose the "Surface ID" option.

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Your underlying map and any previously saved contours will appear on the graphics display.

Calibration

If you are entering a new surface, the calibration menu will appear automatically. If you want to
recalibrate for any reason, select Calibrate from the menu. There are three ways of calibrating the map:

1. click on two distinct points and give the corresponding map distance

2. click on two distinct points and give the corresponding map co-ordinates

3. click on three distinct (non-linear) points and give the corresponding map co-ordinates.

The image may not be a true orthogonal representation of the original map from which it was scanned.
It may have suffered by being squished and squashed by scanners or fax machines and in such a case,
it will be necessary to calculate a map scale in two directions, and that is the reason for the third option
above. If you choose either of the first two options, the program assumes that the map scale in the X
direction is the same as that in the Y direction. Select the appropriate method from the task menu. You
will now be in calibration mode. To start, move the cursor to the first calibration point and left-click. If
you're using the two-point methods, drag the mouse and double-click at the second point to set the
line. Otherwise left-click at the second point and double-click at the third. Finally, enter the
corresponding distance/coordinate information.

There is an option to export the contours as XYZ coordinates. If you intend to use this feature
effectively, you should use option 3 calibration. Values can still be exported using option 1 or 2 but
there is no guarantee of accurate XY scaling.

Adding Contours

Once you have calibrated your map, you can start adding contours. There are two methods for doing
this:

Auto Tracking: Attempts to automatically track a contour using the image

Manual: Add points manually

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You can alternate between these during the contour adding process by right-clicking and selecting the
desired method from the menu. The menu also gives you the option to delete the contour.

Auto Tracking

The auto tracking method enables you to get a quick and - in most cases - accurate representation of a
contour. It works by tracking the nearest dark contour boundary to the mouse cursor. If you have a
contour map where the areas are "filled" or the contours themselves aren't black (or at least very dark),
then you are advised to use the manual tracking mode.

To begin, first go to Add Contour mode and choose the Auto Tracking option. Next, move the cursor
so that it is near the boundary of the desired contour. Double-click to start auto tracking. Without
holding down any mouse buttons, roughly trace the contour boundary with the cursor; the tracking
should automatically start to pick up the boundary.

Auto tracking is not an exact science, and so the position of the cursor or the image itself could cause
the tracking to start picking up on the wrong thing. If it does start to go haywire then reverse the
direction of the cursor; the auto tracking will start to undo those bits of the contour that you're
retracing. If the tracking in such a muddle that the undo no longer works, then move the cursor back
to the last point of the contour with which you are happy, and - while holding down the ctrl button -
left-click. This will delete everything after that point.

At first the contour lines will appear will be light-blue. At this point, none of the contour has been
'accepted'. Left-click to say that the contour, up to that point, is acceptable; this turns the existing part
of the contour dark-blue. Accepted sections cannot be undone, meaning that reversing the cursor
direction - either accidentally or intentionally (e.g. at a fault line) - won't start deleting points.

Double-click to finish adding the contour. Once you've defined the new contour you will still be in Add
Contour mode. Double-click again to start a new contour.

Manual

This is the more traditional method of adding a contour. To start, go to Add Contour mode and select
the Manual radio button. Double-click on the image to start the process. Each left-click adds a new
point to the contour. Double-click to finish. This method is not as quick as the auto tracking, but is
handy for those times that the auto tracking struggles.

After completing a contour...

After adding a new contour you will be prompted to enter the corresponding contour depth. You can select a
different depth (taken from your table of depths) using the 'Previous depth' and 'Next depth' buttons.

Also on this screen, you can select whether to add or subtract the area contained within this contour from the
total area corresponding to the depth. This is to account for contours that represent a 'hole' rather than a
'peak'. (Imagine contouring a ring doughnut, contours on the outside would be positive, those one the 'inside'
would need to be negative.)

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Toolbar options

These are, from left to right:

• Save the current surface file

• Save the current surface file as a new name

• Zoom in - (hold the mouse down and "drag open" to a zoomed portion of the image)

• Zoom out - go back one zoom level.

• Go into 'pan mode' (hold the mouse down and "drag" the zoomed portion of the image)

• Exit 'pan mode'

• Half page Left/Right/Up/Down (keyboard keys work too!)

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Saving the surface file

Having created the digitised surface, you will want to save it for future use. Select File/Save or File/Save
As … to create the 'srf' file. This is an ASCII file which stores surface identification, name of associated
bitmap file, characteristics and co-ordinates of each digitised contour. You must write the map to a
surface file if you wish to use it for GRV calculations later.

Viewing Contour Status

At any time during the editing process you may look at a summary of contours defined so far. By
selecting Contours/Contour Status from the menu, you will display a table of contours for the current
surface showing depth, pen colour, pen thickness, number of nodes, calculated area under the contour,
the area additivity factor (+/-) and a deletion flag. You may alter any of these settings (except number
of nodes and calculated area) and when you press [OK] the display will be refreshed with the new
settings. Note that when you set a delete flag, the contour is not actually deleted from memory, so you
may easily undelete it if you wish. When you save the surface by writing it out to a file, any contours
flagged for deletion are not written.

(Note: the area additivity factor for each contour is either positive or negative, and it reflects the
contribution of that contour to the calculation of total area. Generally, the total area under a given
depth is calculated as the sum of the contribution from each contour at that depth, and if the contour
represents a hole, its area may be subtracted from the total. All area additivity factors are assumed
positive unless amended by the user.)

Viewing Surface File

Select View/Surface File from the menu and you will see the current ASCII surface file. It probably
won't make much sense to you, but, under instruction, it is possible to make changes to such items as
the image filename (if it is moved, for example).

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6 Database

Logging In

Your Database manager should have set up your login and password details. You can set up the default database and
login name using the options in the main 'Setup-Installation' and 'Setup-User Options' screens, see here for details.

The main window is split into two sections: Functional items on the left and results are presented on the RH section.
Clicking on the various tabs on the left should bring the relevant results tab to the front on the right.

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Database Administration

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The "Verify Archive folder" option is used to create a home for copies of the prospect and
consolidation files that get loaded into the database. These files should be seen as a "snapshot"
of the prospect at the time they were loaded in. The folder must exist and be writable by the
users for the database to function correctly.

The 'Add Users' option brings you to this screen. If you have sufficient privelege, you can add business units and users to
the database.

Add the user name and password, the default business unit for the user and his/her admin level and click 'Add'

If the business unit does not yet exist, add it in the relevant field and click 'Add', then select it from the list.

Adding Prospects and Consolidations to the database

Use the "Adding data" options in the "tasks" window on the left. There are three menu items. You can either just add
the currently opened prospect or all the open prospects from the main prospect window. Alternatively, you can browse
directly for sets of physical prospect files. You will be presented with a "database update" dialogue

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In this dialogue, fields with a light blue background are required, red text means the relevant entry is not already in the
database, blue text means it already is. The easiest way to use this dialogue is to just click the "Save" button. The
program will then automatically add the files and update the "red" entries and it will stop at missing entries for you to
fill in (then click "Save" again to continue. This process assumes that there aren't any misspellings in the datafiles, the
information from these screens in the prospect files are used):

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If you want to check, use the "Next>" and "<Back" buttons to cycle through the entries (but remember to go back to the
first entry before clicking "Save"!). You can check the existing database plays/basins etc. by clicking the appropriate ">"
buttons. You will be presented with a "tree" where you can "drill down" through the branches until you find the correct
entry, double click to update the fields.

When you first come into the database, a tree of Business Units (appropriate to your administrative level) will be shown.

Click on the [+] symbol to open (or [-] to close) the branches of the tree to see the Basins, Plays and Prospects.

For example:

In this example, clicking 'Add basin', pops up a window to allow you to enter the name of the new basin in the current
Asset/Business Unit:

Enter the name of the new basin, click OK and the tree will be refreshed to show your new entry (note, you may need to

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click the "full tree" button):

Running Queries and making Reports and Plots

There are three ways of querying the database, either through the RH menu "Query" option, or by using a filter, or by
using a report.

Select the Business unit or Basin or Play or Prospect that you are interested in and click "Query" to run a quick query for
that selection. The "DBQuery" tab on the RH side of the screen will update accordingly and the selected prospects will
become the "current set" for running unfiltered reports and plots.

In this example, the prospects that have been stored in the 'Timbouktou' group have been identified.

There are a number of options at this point:

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You can just go straight to making a plot using these prospects (more on this later)

You can build a report of the values you are interested in seeing from the selected group (more on this later).

Additionally, you can use the 'Filters' dialogue to make a selection. For example, by clicking the 'tree' button you can
bring up a tree with all the standard REP prospect fields, double click to add one to the screen and set the conditions
that you wish to test for. Note that, currently, using a filter will reset all previous selection criteria.

Depending on the option selected, the filtered prospects will be shown/hidden or highlit in red/green, depending on
whether they passed the test:

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Once you've selected the list of files that you are interested in, you can click the "Report" button to generate a tabular
list of interesting values extracted from the files in the database:

On the LH side of the screen is a list of saved reports, RH click to bring up a menu:

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Double Click on a report to run it, for example, the output from a report might look like this:

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The All/Latest radio button allows you to only report the most recent prospect file(s) for each named prospect. Note that
files with the same date will all be shown. A similar logic applies to the All/Approved/Un-Approved radio buttons.

You can edit an existing report:

Again, use the [+] buttons to navigate the available fields and double click to add an entry to the list. Remember to edit
the 'report name' field to avoid overwriting an existing report! Then use the 'Save' button to save the new report name.

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As above, click the report you want to use and click 'Run' to see the new values. You can also print the report, using the
'Print' button.

You can apply filters to the report and these are used to reject prospect files that fail any of the tests. An example is
shown here that only displays/plots prospects that have a GPOS greater than or equal to 0.2 (20%):

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There are also some plots available, click on the 'Plots' tab to see them:

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In this example, the pre-drill P10-P90 range is plotted as a green (economic)/red(technical) line against the pre-drill P50
value.

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Hardcopy

There is a 'Print' button at the bottom right hand corner of the window that will be enabled once you have run a report
or a plot.

If you have both a table and a plot displayed, you will be given the choice of printing the listing, the plot, or both. The
printer selection dialogue will open for each style, to give you the chance to change orientation (e.g. so you can
produce a landscape table and a portrait plot).

6.1 Creating new database

This section is for administrative reference only.

To create a fresh database select "Setup-->Installation" and click the "new" button at the bottom of
the "Location of Files" tab:

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A file browser will open, type the name of the new database file, and click "Save":

You will be presented with a Login screen, which allows the creation of an "administrator level" user
login and password:

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At this point, fill in the details and click "Login". But for Windows7, you may have to click OK, then
close and restart REP and follow the next steps:

1 Select File-->Prospect database

2 login using "admin" (password is "admin")

3 Select the "Add users" option from the LH panel menu

4 Fill in the details for the primary user and click the "Add" button:

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7 Tools

Enter topic text here.

7.1 Calculator

The calculator is a general probability distribution (PDF) manipulation facility. You define PDF's (or load
them from existing prospects or consolidations), define an equation and run it. The results of one
equation can be used as input to another.

A set of input PDF's and equations/results is a model. You can work with as many models as you like at
one time. Models can be saved: the files have the extension ".pdfsim".

When you start, the dialog looks like this:

On the left are two tabs: a task menu (all tasks can be run from the window menu and are described
below) and a tree list of the models/input PDF's and equations. On the right are are a series of input
dialogs and results tables.

The menu items and associated tool bar icons:

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File

New model Start a new model.

Open model Open an existing model. Model files have the .pdfsim extension.

Save model Save the current model with its current filename.

Save model as Save the current model, specifying a new file name.

Print current Makes a printout of the current model on the default printer.
model

Print preview of Makes a print preview of the current model - you can print to any printer from here.
current model

Print all models Makes a printout of all the models on the default printer.

Print preview (all Makes a print preview of all the models - you can print to any printer from here.
models)

Delete model Delete the current model.

Exit Close the calculator window

Input

New variable Add a new variable.

New equation Add a new equation.

Add standard Add a standard variable. The tree contains:


variable
Prospect input variables (e.g. thickness and porosity)

Variables used in estimates of ultimate recovery (e.g. oil EUR per well)

Input and output variables from any loaded prospects or consolidations.

Variables in the first two categories contain no data, but will have appropriate unit series
and unit set. Variables in the last category come complete with the entered or calculated
distributions.

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Click for a typical list


of variables when one prospect is loaded.

Delete current Delete the current variable.


variable

Calculate

Run current Run the current equation.


equation

Run all equations Run all equations.

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Iteration control Allows you to control the iteration procedure. See iteration control below.

Data points

Store data Stores the individual data points (input and output values) of each Monte Carlo iteration.
points Use the "View data points" option to plot them out.

View data Plot the stalled data points. See View data points.
points

Workflow

The usual workflow is

• Start a new model with the icon. Give it a name in the model details dialog.

• Define some input variables, either from scratch or by using predefined or existing PDF's. Input and
result distributions in any loaded prospect or consolidation are available. Use the icon to
produce a list of all them. To review an input, click on its name in the tree on the Models/PDF's tab
on the left.

• There's always one (blank) equation when you start a new model. Click on its name in the tree to
show the equation dialog. Give it a relevant name and define the equation.

• Run and gasp.

A note on units

One advantage that the calculator has over an ordinary spreadsheet is that it knows something about
units. This can also be a hindrance, hence this note.

it works like this: if you define a unit for an input PDF it will convert the values to their SI equivalence.
At the end of the calculation it will attempt to convert these SI values into the units of the result.

So it should be the case that if, for example, you multiply an oil density in API units by a volume in
millions of barrels and define your results unit as metric tonnes, you should get the answer as a weight

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in metric tonnes. Confusion may arise if you don't properly define your results unit because their the
answers will be in some metric unit which may not have an immediate relationship with the input
numbers. On the other hand you can make an equation unhindered by very tiresome conversion
factors.

In the calculator (as in REP and LogIC) the units are subdivided into dimensions such as length, volume,
density etc.; and further subdivided into "unit series". These unit series are lists of units common to a
particular measurement. So, for example, the dimension volume includes unit series named oil volume
and gas volume. Within these series you will find the common units (barrels, cubic metres...) for these
particular measurements. You will not find cubic inches or acre-feet, even though these are also
volumes. You may find the unit series somewhat eclectic, however you will soon find your way through
it.

Units are specified in the unit tree view:

If you have already specified a unit and want to change it, the window shows only the units in the
current series. Click the "All units" button to show all the dimensions and unit series.

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If you have entered values or are looking at results where the units have been defined and you merely
wish to change the unit, the numbers will be converted to the new unit. If you don't wish this to
happen uncheck the "Convert" box at the top of the window.

Model details

The model details dialog is very simple and consists only of two entries: a model name and comments.

Input Variables

Here is a typical dialog for a model, showing the input variable entry:

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ID

Name The name of the variable. Do not use "/", "+", "-" and "*", all of which will confuse the
equation editor because they are valid arithmetic operators. Nor use brackets, for a
similar reason. You can use blanks, but they are a nuisance because in the equation you
need to put the name in quotes.

Unit To specify a unit click in the entry and use the drop down tree . This will ensure that
not only the unit, but also the unit series is properly recorded

Shape Choose the probability distribution shape from the drop-down list.

Style Depending on the shape you have chosen this style button will be enabled or not. Some
distributions (and especially normal, lognormal and beta) can be defined in a number of
different ways. The style enables you to change the way you enter the distribution.
Obviously, the dialogue which comes up will depend on the shape.

For example, a lognormal distribution is fully defined by any two points on it. So you
have the option to choose which two points you wish to enter.

The table In the table you enter the values for the distribution. The configuration depends on the
shape. In the example shown above the distribution is lognormal and the two points
chosen for entry are P50 and P10. Any cell with a blue background need to be filled in.

For all distributions probability is in the first column and value in the second. The

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probability column is usually a cumulative probability, but for user-relative and histogram
distributions it is a probability.

The following buttons are applicable and active only for distributions entered as a table: these are histogram, user-
cumulative and user-relative.

Ins Insert a new line in the table.

Del Deletes the current line in the table.

Reset Deletes all the lines in the table.

=100 Normalises the relative probabilities to 100%. Used only with histogram distributions.

Check The check button performs a check on the distribution to confirm that it is properly
entered. Note that it will also check against the distribution data limits which you can set
(or may be already set) on the dialogue you get when you click the "More.." button
below.

Clipping You can set clipping limits for the distribution.

Clip Check this box enable clipping of the distribution

Min The minimum clipping value. If you leave it blank there will be no clip.

Max The maximum clipping value. If you leave it blank there will be no clip.

Reiterate - Clip to min/ These radio buttons control what happens during the calculation when a clip is triggered.
max The default action ("Reiterate") is to reject the current iteration and try again. The effect
is therefore to squeeze the entered distribution between the lower and upper clipping
limits.

The alternative ("clip to min/max") is to limit the chosen variable value to the clip value
and carry on. This has the effect of weighting the distribution against the clip.

You can see the numerical effect of clipping by looking at the summary statistics below
the graph. Without the clip these numbers are shown in black and are for the entered
distribution. With clips enabled the numbers are shown in green and are for the clipped
distribution.

Comments It is always good practice to explain what the devil you have done in the comment box.

Summary stats These are the summary statistics for the entered distribution (in black) or clipped
distribution (in green).

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More.. Click this button to enter some more details for the distribution. These include:

Optional data limits which are used when checking hte distributions. Use clipping to
avoid errors when using distributions which exceed the limits

Plot limits: by default the variable are plotted using auto-rounded scales. Use these
entries to control the minimum plot value, the maximum plot value, or both.

A checkbox to disable use of this variable. The most useful effect of this is to stop it
being reported out on printouts.

Equation and results

In this dialog you enter the equation to be solved, and enjoy the results

Name The name of this equation/calculation

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Unit The results unit. See note on units above. To clear the units click the [X]
button

P90 etc These are the results of the calculation

Equation and associated See below


buttons

No unit conversions Check this box if you don't want the calculator to attempt units
conversions.

Comments Any description of the equation/results you think might be useful.

The equation

The equation is a simple mathematical formula. Enter the right-hand side of the equation only. The
equation follows the standard mathematical rules of precedence: exponentiation is done first, then
multiplication and division and lastly addition and subtraction. Use brackets in the usual mathematical
way to control the order of solution.

Variables are referenced by name, and the name must be preceded by the hash symbol #. If your
variable name contains a space (blank character), you must enclose the name in quotation marks.You
are recommended to avoid blanks because the quotation marks make the equation harder to read and
therefore check.

You should not use mathematical operators in variable names.

Some mathematical functions are available. See the list below.

There are also some special functions - see even further below. A special argument has a name
followed by a list of argument in brackets, separated by commas. Each argument has a name and a
value, separated by '='. The value can be an input variable PDF or a constant value. This example
calculates the EUR over 30 years from a shale gas well using hyperbolic decline:

WELLDCA (QI=#Initial_rate, DI=#initial_decline, B=0.5, YRS=30)

Note that some arguments are optional, and if omitted will assume a default value as described below.
For example, if you leave out B=0 in the WELLDCA equation it defaults to 0, which is for exponential
decline.

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Use the buttons described below to build up your equation without tiresome typing.

Buttons

Variables A tree of the current variables. Click a variable to edit to the equation. It
will automatically add the hash symbol and put brackets around names
containing blanks.

+ - * / ** ( ) Click to add a mathematical operator or bracket to the equation.

Parse To check that the equation is written correctly (at least in terms of
syntax).

Functions

SQRT Square root

LOG or LOG10 Logarithm base 10

LN, LOGE Natural logarithm

CHS Change sign

EXP Exponent

ABS Absolute value

INT Integer value

NINT Nearest integer value

SIN, COS, TAN Trigonometric functions, argument in radians.

ASIN, ACOS, ATAN Inverse trigonometric functions, result in radians

SIND, COSD, TAND Trigonometric functions, argument in degrees

ASIND, ACOSD, ATAND Inverse trigonometric functions, result in degrees

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Special Functions (just the one for now)

Note: the argument names can be shortened to just those characters shown in bold

WELLDCA Calculates EUR (ultimate recovery) from decline curve analysis

WELLDCA arguments

QI Initial flow rate Required

DI Initial decline rate Required

B Hyperbolic Optional; The default is 0 (exponential decline)


constant

DLIM Limiting decline Optional - defaults to 0 (no limiting decline rate)


rate

YEARS Length of Optional - defaults to 600 months (50 years)


or production
MONTH
S

Iteration control

This dialog allows you to control the Monte-Carlo iteration process.

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Iterations The number of iterations in the Monte Carlo simulation. 20,000 is the REP default and
gives a stable result in most cases.

Algorithm Choose random: it's the only one.

Seed The starting point of the Monte Carlo simulation. A fixed seed starts every simulation
with the same value, so you will always get the same result with the same equation. This
is useful to prevent the confusion of probabilistic naifs. However, it is not really in the
spirit of the method. Purists therefore choose floating.

Close after calculation Close this dialogue box after you have recalculated by clicking the calculator button
below.

Set default Make these the default values for this model.

Data points

This feature is similar to the data points option in the prospect calculation and consolidation modules
of REP. First, you need to run a calculation and store the data. Then choose variables to plot either as
a histogram or a cross plot of two variables. The variables can be either input or output probability

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distributions.

There is obviously a limit to the number of data points that the computer can hold, determined by your
machine's resource (memory etc) and the complexity of the equation. If you get no results try reducing
the number of iterations in your simulation.

The you don't have a y-axis specified, a histogram will be drawn (see also plot options below):

If you specify a y-axis, and "cross-plot" is chosen in the plot options dialog, you will get a cross-plot.

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The crossplots can get a bit dense. You could consider reducing the number of iterations to thin them out a bit.
There is no theoretical upper limit to the number of iterations, but as you increase the number the plots will
get unreasonably solid, and the drawing get slower and slower until your machine starts grinding to a halt.

Data point plot options

There are some useful controls on how the plots are drawn

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Plot type

Crossplot/histogram Choose the plot type you want

Sampling

Points The cross-plots can get a bit dense. Here you can choose to plot a limited number of

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points.

Histogram

Bins This is the resolution of the histogram.

Crossplot

X-axis probability You can choose to limit the plotted data to probability ranges in the variable or result. Click to see
limits an example (with masked points being shown) here:

From The higher probability (P) value - which of course corresponds to a lower value or the variable,
since REP uses P100 as a minimum. You can leave it blank, in which case the limit used is 100.

To The lower P value. You can leave it blank, in which case the limit used is 0

Y-axis probability The same as the x-axis limits, but for the y-axis, obviously.
limits

Show masked points Check this box to show the points which have been discarded by the probability limit clipping.
They are drawn in a discrete grey.

X histogram Check this box to show a histogram of the x-axis values. This is often obscured by the data points,
if you have lots of them. If this happens choose a smaller sampling above.

Y histogram Ditto.

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7.2 PDF fit

This simple facility fits normal, log-normal and beta distributions to entered data. The entered data can
be from file (csv or xls) or - most conveniently - from the clipboard.

There is one dialog:

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Data tab

Source

From Use this option to load up data from the clipboard. This is the most convenient way to load the data.
clipboard Use the paste button to load it.

From file You can also load data directly from an XL or a CSV file. Specify the file name (or browse using the
arrow button) and then click load.

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The data you are loading should be a table of one or more columns. There must of course be
numeric data, but you can also load a column of alphanumeric data which can be displayed on the
plots next to the corresponding values.

The software will attempt to recognise column titles and units. It will also attempt to differentiate
between numeric and textural data.

Data

Data In this entry specify the column of numeric data, which you wish to fit.

Labels Here specify a column of data labels. It is not necessary to label the data, but it can be useful.

Table In the table below the current column of data is shown, also labels if specified. You can remove
individual data points by un-checking them in the column titled use.

Sort You can sort the data by right-clicking a column header. This is useful if you want to remove outliers,
though this can also be done by restricting the input to, for example, P95-P5 - see Points selection.

Plot options

In this tab you control how the plot is made.

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Plot

Cumulative In a cumulative frequency plot, the x-axis is value and the Y axis is cumulative frequency. Note that
frequency the value of the first point does not correspond to P100. Rather, the data are equally spaced in
probability with a spacing which corresponds to (n+1) data points.

Histogram A histogram is a plot in the relative probability domain.

Bins The number of bins controls the resolution of the histogram. The more bins the spikier it gets.

Smooth You can optionally smooth the data histogram. Use of this option along with
adjustment of the number of bins can e be a useful way of comparing the data
with the fits.

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X-axis

Scale The X axis scale can be either linear or logarithmic.

Select The scale selection can be manual, where you enter the minimum and maximum; auto, where the
axis limits are taken from the data; or auto-round, which is similar to auto but the axis end points are
attractively rounded down and up.

Y-axis

Scale Histogram frequencies are always wanted with a linear Y axis scale. But with a cumulative frequency
plot the Y axis scale can be on a linear or a probability scale. A probability scale linearises the
cumulative frequency curve of a normal distribution. If the x-axis is logarithmic, the probability scale
in the y-axis will linearise a lognormal distribution.

Misc

Labels Check this box to show the data labels next to their plotted positions. This only applies to
cumulative frequency plots.

Show all If you have used the "Use" column in the data table to deselect some points it can be useful to see
points where they would have been had they been used in the fit. Check this box to do this.

Note that in probability terms, removing points will alter the value of all the others. So there is a
displacement in the y-axis position for the points that are actually used in the fit.

Fits

This tab contains the results of the fits, and some fitting options.

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Normal This box shows the results of a normal fit.

Lognormal This box shows the results of a lognormal fit.

Beta This box shows the results of a beta fit.

Algorithm, point
selection

Points Point selection is only useful if you have lots of data, and in fact none of the options here will affect

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the results if you have less than 10 of them. It is a means of controlling extreme values. The data are
ranked in order of value and then the chosen range is sent to the fitting algorithm. For example, if
you have a dataset of exactly 100 points and choose the 99-P1 option, the first and last data points
not be used.

Algorithm
There are two methods (at least) of fitting normal and lognormal distributions.
You can calculate the mean and standard deviation and construct the
distributions using these two parameters. Alternatively, you can fit the
cumulative distribution using least-squares.

In the latter case, you can use standard least-squares (LS) or a robust algorithm,
which reduces the influence of outliers.

Note that these options apply only to normal and lognormal distributions. The
beta distribution is fitted using a simulated annealing algorithm which does not
allow (at least in our implementation) these options. In addition, please note that
the beta fit does not always work, especially when there is not very much data to
work with.

7.3 Fluid Correlations


The Fluid Correlations dialog is split into four categories: Oil, Gas , Sorbed gas and Misc.

Simple fluid correlations for oil and gas are available when entering distributions for Bo and 1/Bg. The
correlations are based on standard equations (Standing, McCord, etc.). They may or may not be valid for the
hydrocarbons in your reservoir. Some of the correlations are based on a limited number of fluid samples,
others may be incorrect above certain temperatures and pressures.

You are advised to use real data or analogous data rather than relying on these correlations.

In all these entries, the drop-down arrow at the right of the entry box allows you to change the unit, either
converting the entered value (if it's there) or not.

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Oil Properties
For oil formation volume factor you need to enter oil and gas gravity, gas/oil ratio, reservoir temperature and
reservoir pressure. If you know the bubble point pressure, check the box and enter it, otherwise the
correlation will estimate it.

The accuracy of the correlation is much improved if you know the bubble point pressure; but if you do, you
probably have a laboratory measurement of Bo as well.

Environment

Temperatur Enter the temperature


e

Pressure Enter the pressure

Estimate Click this button to estimate temperature and pressure from depth and gradients. See
below

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Properties

Oil gravity Enter the oil gravity

Gas gravity Enter the gas gravity

initial gas/ Enter the initial gas-oil ratio


oil ratio

Bubble point
pressure

Bubble If you check this, you must enter a value to be used in the correlation. Otherwise if
point is unchecked it will be estimated from with the correlation.
known

Pb Enter the bubble point if you know it.

Formation
volume factor

Oil FVF The estimated oil formation volume factor Bo. Bo is one of the input variables in a REP
oil volume calculation

Units Click to change units

Gas Properties
When estimating gas properties, you should first check the standard conditions (standard reservoir and
pressure). Different countries (and in the USA, different states) can have different standard conditions and
although the differences are usually small they can be both significant and irritating.

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Temperature Enter the temperature defined for standard conditions

Pressure Enter the pressure defined for standard conditions

Units Click to change units

Another source of confusion comes when the reservoir gas has significant impurities (inerts) - nitrogen or
carbon dioxide, for example. Do the properties you wish to use refer to the reservoir or the processed gas? In
REP you should use the properties of the reservoir gas (i.e. including inerts).

For properties by correlation you need to know the specific gravity, mole percentages of CO2, N2 and H2S (if
any) and the reservoir temperature and pressure. The correlations for gas are fairly accurate and most of the
error comes from uncertainty in reservoir temperature and pressure.

Standard gas properties (Z factor, gas expansion factor 1/Bg and density at reservoir conditions) can be
derived either from correlation or from composition.

The units of all entries can be changed by clicking the [Units] button.

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Environment

Temperatur Enter the reservoir temperature


e

Pressure Enter the reservoir pressure

Estimate Click this button to estimate temperature and pressure from depth and gradients. See
below

Properties

Gas specific Enter the gas specific gravity (air = 1)


gravity

Mole% CO2 Enter the mole percentage of carbon dioxide

Mole% N2 Enter the mole percentage of nitrogen

Mole% H2S Enter the mole percentage of hydrogen sulphide

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Results

FVF (1/Bg) This is the gas expansion factor (1/Bg) which you will need in an evaluation of a gas
reservoir

Density The downhole gas density (i.e. the density at reservoir conditions)

Z factor This is calculated Z factor.

Units Click to change units

If you have a full gas composition you can work out the gas properties with even greater precision.

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Mole % For each listed component, enter the mole fraction (as a percentage).

Total % This is the sum of the mole percentages for each component. It should add up to
100%

Average MW C6 This is the average molecular weight of the heavier components (C6 and above)
+

Retrieve Click to read a composition from file

Save Click to save the composition to a file

Sorbed gas

Total sorbed gas can be estimated from a Langmuir isotherm.

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Langmuir These refer to the conditions under which the isotherm was estimated.
isotherm
constants

Langmuir This is the maximum amount of gas that can be adsorbed to shale or coal at infinite
volume pressure

TOC The TOC of the sample.

Pressure The pressure at which one half of the Langmuir volume can be adsorbed

Temperat The temperature at which the experiment was run.


ure

Analogue Click this button to load up analogue data (see below)


s

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Reservoir The actual conditions in the reservoir

Pressure, The isotherm is corrected to these. You can estimate pressure and temperature from
temperatu depth and gradients by clicking the Estimate button.
re

TOC TOC of the actual shale or coal

Bulk The density of the rock. This is necessary because the usual unit of Langmuir volume is
density scf/ton, and must be converted to something useful.

Total sorbed
gas content

Total gas This is the gas content value that should be used in volumetric calculations.
content

Note: the analogue data is taken from published literature: see for example "Adsorption of methane
and carbon dioxide on gas shale and pure mineral samples", Robert Heller, Mark Zoback, JUOGC,
2014.

Misc

Estimate temperature and pressure

Allows you to estimate reservoir pressure and temperature from reservoir depth and gradients. This dialog is the one you see if
you click the "Estimate" button in any of the dialogs above.

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Representativ
e depth

Depth The reservoir depth

Pressure

Gradient The average pressure gradient from surface to the reservoir. 0.44 psi/ft is a typical
gradient for a normally pressured reservoir

Pressure The resulting reservoir pressure

Temperature

Gradient The average temperature gradient from surface to the reservoir. This can vary a quite
a bit, 1 - 3 degC/100m, but 1.8 - 2.2 degC/100m (10 - 12 degF/1000ft) is usual.

Temperat The resulting reservoir temperature


ure

Units Click to change units

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Set units

Depth Enter the units to be used for depth

Temperature Enter the units to be used for temperature

Pressure Enter the units to be used for pressure

Gas density Enter the units for oil gravity

Oil density Enter the units to use for oil density

Gas/oil ratio Enter the units for gas/oil ratio

Calor. Value Enter the units for calorific value (heating value)

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7.4 Unit Conversions

Series

Full Tree

Stree

(Units) From

(Units|From)
Value

(Units) To

(Units|To)
Value

Scale

Offset

Expon

Status ****

Name ****

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Auth ****

Location ****

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8 Set-up and Defaults

Set-up and Defaults may be accessed from the main REP window. Various parameters which control the
calculation procedure and the environment are entered here. The parameters are all stored in files which the
program reads when it first starts up.

There are two key categories in which set-up parameters exist: those which are particular to a user (User
options), and those which concern all users (Installation).

Mostly, installation parameters concern operating parameters which should not normally be changed. For
example, it is a serious problem if some users in a company are using one risking scheme and others another.
Therefore, the risking scheme is an installation parameter which will have been agreed by big shots in the
corporation and should be changed only if you have another job to go to.

For more information on individual set-up tools, see our topics on each specific section.

User options

Installation options

Custom help files

Fluid correlations

Unit conversions

Licensing

8.1 User Options


User options consists of three tabs, the categories are:

General

Results Presentation

Location of Files

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General

General

Country Enter the default country. This will become the default for the 'country' prompt
whenever you start a new file.

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Company name Enter the default company name

Group/unit Enter the business unit, user group or client. As with country, Company name and
Group/unit will be assigned to the [Set as default] button, for relevant fields,
whenever you start a new file.

Iteration Control

Computers are unable to generate truly random numbers. Rather, they are given a starting number and
from that derive a random(ish) sequence of numbers. But given the same starting point, they generate
the same sequence of numbers. If you use a fixed seed, successive calculations on the same data set
and with the same number of iterations will give identical results.

Seed Choose a fixed or floating seed to begin random sequence. If you specify a floating
seed, the program will derive a seed based on the time of day (hours, minutes,
seconds and hundredths of seconds) at which you start the calculations. It is
most unlikely that successive calculations will have the same starting seed.
Using different seeds, the results calculated for the same input data will be
different. The amount of difference will depend on the input data and on the
number of iterations.

Using a fixed seed is by no means consistent with the spirit of the Monte-Carlo
method; but it is sometimes useful to be able to precisely duplicate previous
results (if your photocopier has broken down, for instance) or if you are
producing management reports.

(Some company employees consider that Management gets very confused and
bitter if numbers change for no obvious reason and are liable to go around
sacking people indiscriminately. They are, of course, quite wrong to think this.
Good managers do not need an excuse.)

Iterations Enter the maximum number of iterations you wish the program to make. Increasing the
number of iterations increases the stability of the results but the calculations
take longer. For most data sets, 2000 iterations gives reasonably consistent
results. Modern machines are so fast that 20,000 iterations of a prospect only
takes a few seconds.

Note that under some circumstances (if you are using models, for example, or in
consolidations) REP may decide to increase the number of iterations, to ensure
that each calculation element (model or prospect) is adequately sampled.

Algorithm For future use.

Sub-sampling With version 5.4 the sub-sampling has been improved. It


affects the results a little,
but not much; and any change is certainly within the statistical variation of
the Monte-Carlo process. If, when recalculating prospects and
consolidations, you want to get identical results to those of earlier versions
set this option to "Original".

This choice is not saved. When you restart the program it will start off with
the revised algorithm.

Distribution entry styles

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Normal/log-normal Choose the pair of values you wish to use to define normal/log-normal shapes. Choose
"Custom" if you want any other pair of values, and enter the pair you want. See also
distribution styles

Always show these values Check if you want to see the the custom P values on the input dialog, whatever style you
choose.

Triangular Choose the entry style for triangular distributions

Beta Choose the entry style for beta distributions

Username

Username Enter a user name to show on output (usually labelled "Author")

On program start

On program start When the program starts you can choose to do nothing, load the last file (either prospect or
consolidation) or the last project.

Results Presentation
Results Presentation consists of a number of options that allow you to customise how your results are to be
presented.

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Units

You may specify whether you want the results of the reserve calculations to be presented in metric or
oil-field units. Separate units systems may be specified for hydrocarbon volumes (Liquids/Gas) and GRV
volumes (GRV).

[Note: This can be overridden at any time, when you are running the program.]

General

You may specify what P level corresponds to the "proven" or "downside" (Proven P level) and what P
level corresponds to the "possible" or "upside" (Possible P level). The words "Proven" and "Possible"
here used in a loose sense. By default - and common practice; also recommended by PRMS - the

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"proven" level is P90 and the "possible" level is P10.

Print BOE phase Check to print the BOE phase as part of the prospect/consolidation summary

Don't show Check to only print in-place volumes.


recoverable

Other

Logo file Your company logo may be displayed at the top right-hand corner of the output
sheets. The logo is read from a file, which must be produced by us. The file must be
placed in the dbdefs folder, in the program installation area. It must have the
extension .pic or be a 256-colour .bmp file. For example, the Logicom logo file is c:
\rep5\dbdefs\logicom.pic. If you are unable to create a 256-colour .bmp file, please
send us (to support@logicomep.com) your company logo (as a .jpg or other standard
image file) and we will convert it for you. Since some companies have more than one
logo, there is a facility here to choose which one you want to use.

When specifying the file to use do not enter the path or the file extension.

Curve shading

Curve shading Choose curve shadings for various volume categories.

Location of Files
Export files are used to control how and where data are exported to XL. There are two types:

Single line export puts the results of a prospect or consolidation into an "inventory" spreadsheet - one line
per prospect/consolidation. See Exporting "Single line" Data to an XL Spreadsheet. The archive folder is
used if you want to make a copy of the prospect file and any associated Files (maps, spreadsheets, etc.).

Direct export puts the prospect or consolidation data into a copy of a master spreadsheet. The XLS master
spreadsheet file is copied to the data area and data for the current prospect put in it according to the
template file. Separate sets may be used for prospects and consolidations. See Exporting data to XL
Spreadsheets.

The XL Macro export files are used when exporting data with the "Export | XLS macro" facility. When exporting
an XL macro, the XL export template controls the file that is written. This a method implemented in the early
days of REP, and is not now recommended.

When REP is first installed, example master and template files are included with the distribution. These are
part of the Site defaults. You can copy these to this "user defaults" area by clicking "Use site defaults". In any
given company, the site files may be modified to suit, and these should be specified in Installation options so

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Set-up and Defaults 345

that they are available to every user here.

Single line export


(inventory)

Master XL Enter the master XL spreadsheet with the inventory data

Template csv Enter the template file

Prospect export

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Master XL Enter the master XL spreadsheet

Template csv Enter the template file

Consolidation
export

Master XL Enter the master XL spreadsheet

Template csv Enter the template file

XL Macro export

Prospect Enter the template to be used for XL export of prospect results

Consol. Enter the template to be used to export consolidation results

O/p path Enter a location to place XL export files

8.2 Installation Options


In this section there are a number of program options, which are common to all users of the program on this
network. Mostly, these options are agreed when REP is first installed and should not be changed.

Installation options consists of two tabs, the categories are:

Customization

Printers

Customization

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Prospect risking

There are a number of different Prospect Risking Schemes implemented in REP, reflecting different (and
always strongly held) views on this important aspect of prospect evaluation. The schemes are outlined
in 'Prospect Risking Schemes'. It is strongly advised that you decide the way you wish to risk prospects
when you first start to use REP (or ask us to implement the way you prefer to do it if none of the
existing schemes suit) and then stick to it.

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[Note: Scheme 7 is really just a portal to an XL spreadsheet, which can be maintained by you, the user.
If you choose this scheme you must enter the filename of the template XL file. See our section on 'XL-
based Risking Schemes'.]

Scheme Enter the style of prospect risking you wish to use

Kent wording Risks are numeric, but is some schemes are linked to English phrases ("likely", "ambiguous",
etc.). Sherman Kent was an American professor who thought deeply about what these words
should be, and here they are. His original article of 1964 was originally CIA classified, but is
now available here. It an interesting and still relevant read.

Config. With some schemes you can set the words yourself - click Config. to do this.

XL Enter the risking XL file (used in Scheme 7)

(XL) Browse Click to browse for risking XL file

Worksheet Enter the worksheet name for the worksheet with summary risks

No rounding Many risking schemes round category chances to the nearest 5%. In some of these (but not all)
it is possible to disable the rounding. So if you enter a reservoir chance of 57% that's what
you'll get.

Custom

Disable economic Check to disable calculations using economic cut-offs. This is an option designed for those
calculations companies whose management believes that G&G professionals are sandal-shod dope heads
who think that the only purpose of money is to commission really meaningful flower
arrangements.

Use Swanson's mean Swanson's mean is defined as Mean (Mz) = 0.3 x p90 + 0.4 x P50 + 0.3 x P90.
This is considered by many authorities (and presumably Swanson himself) as a
more robust measure, especially when a results distribution is highly skewed. In
REP, log-normal and normal distributions are clipped at 3 standard deviations
from the mean (this is a feature of our Monte-Carlo algorithm) so the "true" mean
and Swanson's measure rarely differ by much. Swanson's mean is commonly
used in the industry and cynics often argue that its importance reflects overuse of
the log-normal distribution.

Fractional chances Check to enter and show chance of success as a fraction rather than a %

Mandatory descriptors In the normal course of events you can get away with not filling in most of the
textural and other descriptive entries in prospect calculations and consolidations.
Mandatory description schemes insist that key entries are filled in. This can be
important when you are storing the results on a corporate database.

Show net or gross on You can choose whether to display net (your company's share) or gross (whole
graphs trap) quantities on results graphs

Default input units Choose to set the default unit as oil field or metric (though note that all units can be changed
and mixed at any time).

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Approvals list REP allows for a list of appraisers/approvers. For each prospect you can enter the names of
these people, and the date when they approved or appraised. You can enter the titles for
these folk, to suit your corporate procedures. Click the right arrow to bring up the list. See
Approvals list below

Output

Summary sheet style Choose a style for the main summary sheet

Summary output The summary output can be results only or input and results. The standard
prospect summary printed report (one page per phase) is printed in either case.
In the latter, the input page is also printed.

Name for gross (100%) Enter the name for gross (100%) quantities on output sheets
quantities

Name for (NRI) Enter the name for net (production interest) quantities on output sheets
quantities

Show expectation curve The expectation curve in a results graph is the risked cumulative reserves
probability, and is the unrisked cumulative curve multiplied by the chance of
success. It can confuse, so you can choose not to show it.

Don't show risked mean Some people like to check this option, the risked mean being a value which can -
in many cases - never be achieved as well as being a ranking parameter with little
reference to value.

Show output SD's Check if you wish to show the standard deviation of output distributions.

User.. Click to edit the user defaults

Database Location

Browse Click to browse for database file location

New Click to create new database file

Printers

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Printers For "advanced" users (geeks) only

Co-ordinate system The system that will be used to define the location of any new prospect.

Meridian The zero meridian in UTM eastings.

Southern hemisphere Check the box if the location is south of the equator.

Spheroid The projection system controlling latitude and longitude. WGS 1984 is the standard for GPS.

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Approvals list
REP allows for a list of appraisers/approvers. For each prospect you can enter the names of these people, and the date when
they approved or appraised. You can enter the titles for these folk, to suit your corporate procedures. The dialog below shows
the defaults, but you can change them. They are shown on the approvals tab of any prospect ID, where of course you enter the
actual names and dates.

You can enter a chain of up to 8 people. (Or you can drill prospects; but, with 8 people, probably not
both.)

8.3 Custom Help Files


Companies have different policies regarding prospect evaluation and risking, therefore each REP installation
can have associated help files, custom help files, accessed by the program.

REP recognises preset categories of help. You can also write an index, which should have links to the main
files.

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Implementing custom help files is a two step process:

1. Write the files and save them in HTML. You can save them anywhere on your machine or network. You
can write the help in other formats as long as the file extension is recognised by the operating system.

2. Enter the file names for each category in the Setup | Custom help files menu item.

You do not need to write files for each category. If a category file is not defined then no custom help button is
shown on the associated dialog.

The REP user will see a [Custom help] button on the appropriate dialog if a custom help file exists. There is
also a menu item Help | Custom help on the main window Help drop-down which will present the index.

8.4 Licencing
Before you can run the program, you will need to obtain a licence from us. To do this, start the program. A
window will appear:

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Set-up and Defaults 353

Either press "Alt+PrntScr" and paste the window into a Word document (or press the [Text] button - this will
open Notepad so you can copy/paste a text version of the same information).

Then e-mail us with the licence information to: support@logicomep.com.

We will send back some numbers and a list of check-boxes to be enabled. Run the program again, enter the
numbers and check the indicated boxes on the same screen. Click [OK] and the program should start.

From time to time you may be denied entry to the program due to the licensing system detecting a problem,
this can be for a number of reasons:

1. You have not yet licensed the program on the PC you are using.

2. The licence period has terminated.

3. You have installed a version that is a newer release than is allowed by your maintenance date.

4. You have exceeded the allowed number of simultaneous users.

5. You do not have sufficient privileges in the program directory.

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[Note: The last two problems usually occur if the program is installed on a network disk. Ask your system
manager to contact us if he or she needs any assistance in fixing the problem.]

The [INI] button closes the program and opens a text editor to the program .ini file so that you can switch
between a local PC licence and a wide-area-network licence (ask your IT manager to request details from us
on how to do this.)

If you have already received licence codes, fill in the details and click on [OK].

If not, e-mail (or fax) the Machine ID information to us, click [Quit] to exit the program and try again when
you receive the codes.

If you have received updated licence codes before your licence has lapsed (for example, to enable extra
options or extend your licence period), select 'Env-Licensing' from the LogIC blue screen menu then enter the
details and click [OK].

If the licensing window reappears with a 'too many users' error (and you are not using a network licence),
click on [Quit] and rerun the program.

Licence Code ****

Number Of ****
Users

Termination ****
Date

Maintenance ****
Date

(Licence ****
Option)
Database

(Licence ****
Option) For
Future Use
(1)

(Licence ****
Option) For
Future Use
(2)

(Licence ****
Option) For
Future Use
(3)

(Licence ****
Option)
Network
Enable

OK Click to confirm

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INI Click to open program .ini file for wide-area-network licensing

Text Click to open Notepad

Quit Click to quit program

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9 Version notes

5.41k04

A bug when changing a prospect variable value (e.g. porosity P90) while running a consolidation could
cause the program to crater at the end of a consolidation recalculation.

5.41k03

A bug where the unit of area uncertainly was unspecified when it should have been "%" has been fixed.

5.41k01

There are two new risking schemes - 24 (similar to 22) and 25.

5.41j07

Some clients using the REP database did not have permission from their IT dept to write files to the
database archive folder, which resulted in errors due to "empty" entries. A new option under the
database "File" menu has been added to delete these entries.

5.41j06

You can now run shale gas calculations using a gas condensate case. It is assumed that the sorbed gas
has no liquids content. The CGR (or condensate recovery factor) is applied only to the free gas
component.

There is now a warning when you change to oil in a shale gas or CBM case (which results in a
conventional pass).

The dialog labels for input variable plots for which values are yet to be entered are now displayed
correctly.

5.41j03

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Consolidating prospects in which all the net production interests were zero completed OK but only the
mean value was shown: P90/P50/P10 were all zero: fixed.

When changing input variable units, the input variable plot label did not reflect the new units. Now it
does. Changing the units could also confuse the data points plot conditions.

5.41j02

Phase chance was incorrectly written when saving a consolidation, and a new calculation was required
to restore it. This is now fixed.

In some risking schemes you can disable the chance rounding (normally to the nearest 5%). See
Installation

5.41j01

Consolidations with risking schemes using an amplitude modifier were not handling common chance
reliably. See Common chance with an amplitude modifier.

5.41h10

The mapping function can now display PDF and PNG formats. A PDF file has to be converted before it
can be used and the utility for this is included in the program, but note that the screen may flash
briefly while doing this conversion, this is normal.

5.41h09

In the case of using the minimum of spill point and column height top calculate GRV, there was no
independent check that sufficient contour range existed to allow calculation of volume at every
possible column height. If the calculation failed during a run, a zero volume was returned, and this,
being less than the volume from the spill point estimate, was the final GRV. Now the spill point GRV is
used.

Top and bottom surfaces could often end up with different depth and area units. his no longer
happens and you can choose the units from the surface entry dialog.

The input variable entry dialog could wreak havoc when entering a new variable; now the dogs of war
are un-slipped.

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5.41h07

Some consolidations with risking schemes including the amplitude modifier (but where there was no
amplitude modifier entered) had a GPOS of 100% regardless of the input prospect risks. Now fixed.

5.41h04

Risking scheme 2 and scheme 5 now have an amplitude anomaly modifier - as in the SAAM
consortium usage.

In prospects:

You can now force the stacking factor to be an integer (whole) number.

Deleting models in the models dialog caused instability - now doesn't.

The sensitivity plot (spider diagram) is now better drawn.

The layout of the variable dependency dialog is changed a bit, but the functionality remains the
same.

5.41h03

A new feature has been added to aid error reporting. In the event of a crash, the "Report" button on
the error message window auto-creates an email report for sending to support@logicomep.com.

5.41h01

Some bugs in Consolidation export to XL have been fixed.

A bug when displaying a decision tree has been fixed.

5.41g07

Under some circumstances, pasting from an XL spreadsheet to an area/depth table failed - this has
been fixed.

In the prospect database, consolidation net volumes and whole trap volumes were identical - fixed.

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5.41g02

A bug when copying probability distributions to other loaded prospects has been fixed.

The prospect/well location in Prospect ID allows for either UTM or lat/long entry. It will convert from
one to the other if you specify the central meridian of the UTM and the co-ordinate spheroid. In set-up
| installation you can specify the default system for new prospects.

5.41f23

In rare cases (usually associated with GRV calculated from two surfaces) the GRV distribution limits
were too widely spaced. This cased strange-looking plots. This is now corrected. The effect was purely
visual - the numerical results were correct.

5.41f22

Database functionality has been further improved.

Validate/Archive function uses "Peer Review" folder in User Setup and "Save Anyway" option added to
allow archiving with missing key fields.

Pre-post drill evaluations can be exported to an XL file.

Single prospect export function has been extended to produce a multi-tabbed XL file with one tab for
each prospect. Also, the XL file can be edited and imported back into REP.

Printouts (full and summary style 5) now include the Spheroid and coordinates (lat/long or E/N).

5.41f14

The probability of achieving the mean is shown on the "More stats" dialog. Previously only technically
successful numbers were shown. It is now shown also for economically successful results (when clicking
the [<>] button on the main dialog).

When viewing data points (from "Calculate | data points" you can now filter plotted points using other
data values. See the "Conditions" box on the plot options dialog.

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5.41f13

Some more reporting bugs in the database functionality have been fixed.

5.41f10

Some bugs that caused the reporting of consolidation results in the database functionality to be blank
in some circumstances have been fixed.

A bug in the database report rename function that caused reports to be un-deletable has been fixed.

5.41f08

A bug that caused the GRV area-thickness table (when loaded from a net pay surface file) to "lose" its
crest value and first contour has been fixed.

5.41f03

A new option in consolidations - Drilling success envelope - has been added to the "Calculate" menu.
This produces a graph of the success case results as wells are drilled.

5.41f01

Dummy consolidation entries at the second level (i.e. when they were part of a consolidation itself
being consolidated) now work correctly.

A bug that cause plots occasionally to show blank grids has been fixed. And in "data points", the drop
down control for choosing plot axes now works properly.

5.41e09

A bug occasionally caused the wrong "popup" graph to be drawn when both the prospect and

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consolidation windows were open, this has been fixed.

Trying to set the temporary default "beta" style from the parameter entry dialogue caused a crash, now
fixed.

In consolidations, trying to use "dummy" entries with the "beta" function caused a crash in some
circumstances, now fixed.

5.41e08

A bug when deleting and creating Consolidations has been fixed.

5.41e07

Consolidating unconventional volumes (both shale gas and cbm) caused an error - the calculation did
not complete - if (a) the prospect was loaded in the prospect section and (b) it was using a Langmuir
isotherm. This is now fixed. Also the environmental risk is now being correctly displayed in the
common chance dialog (although the calculation was correct).

5.41e06

In consolidations: we found that when consolidating very risky prospects the number of iterations,
although increased automatically, was sometimes not increased enough. We have therefore changed
the algorithm that decides how much the increase should be. You may therefore find that when
recalculating an existing dataset the numbers are changed. In most cases this change will be trivial.

You can look at the variation in consolidation results (P90, P50, P10 and mean) occurring as a result of
the statistical process. In particular, it helps understand whether there are sufficient iterations in your
analysis. See Statistical stability.

A bug which meant that prospect calculations within a consolidation were not necessarily run with a
fixed seed (and therefore showed non-"exactly repeatable" results) has been fixed.

5.41e05

You can now export the results of each iteration in a consolidation calculation. See Saving and storing
iteration results

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5.41e03

A bug that prevented maps being printed with consolidations and a default metric depth units error
for a new prospect have been fixed

5.41e02

A bug that caused "grief" when entering the common chance dialog with a consolidation of
consolidations has been fixed.

5.41e01

A bug that prevented a variety of image formats being recognized in the "new" map digitising module
has been fixed.

5.41d04

A bug in the checks made before the calculation started caused a spurious error in some layered
prospects. This is now fixed, and an option added under "Calculate | Options" to force the program to
do the calculations even if a supposed error was found. Use this option with caution and trepidation.

A bug in the printing for certain combinations of report style has been fixed.

5.41d02

In consolidations, dependency between variables can now be negative.

5.41

In consolidations, there is a new option from the calculate menu called "Outcome distributions". For
each outcome in a consolidation the chance of that outcome, and the P90, P50, P10 and mean volumes
are written to a csv file which can be readily loaded up in a spreadsheet (and directly from the
program). You can only run this calculation when all the consolidation inputs are prospects.

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There is a new resource play module, released as beta in 5.41. We'd be grateful for any and all
feedback.

The beta distribution now has an extra parameter λ (lambda). This controls the sharpness of the
distribution. To change λ, click the "Style button next to the shape entry on the input variable dialog, or
the "More.." button in the PDF calculator dialogs. Increasing λ will sharpen up the distribution,
decreasing it will make it ever more stodgy. See beta distribution.

The file database admin tool (Main window, "File | File database admin") now allows you to identify
likely duplicates, by showing them in green in the list. It will also identify files that cannot be read, and
show them in red.

In prospect models, the model chance can now itself be a probability distribution. See Prospect models

5.40+

IMPORTANT NOTES - Please read!

The input sampling algorithm has been slightly revised. It affects the results a little, but not
much; and change is within the statistical variation of the Monte-Carlo process. If, when
recalculating prospects and consolidations, you want to get identical results to those of earlier versions
go to Calculate|Iteration Control and choose "Original" at the 'Sub-sampling' entry in the Iteration
control' box. This choice is not saved.

We have identified a long-standing bug in two phase systems where the second phase (gas cap
in an "oil" reservoir or oil rim in a "gas" reservoir) has a probability of occurrence less than
100%. The program was double-counting this risk. In other words, if you entered a probability of a
gas cap of 80%, the program was actually calculating as if it was 64%. This bug was corrected with
version 5.41b. To recover your previous results, you should change the probability to the square root
of the previous one when (expressed as a fraction). Whilst an estimate of the probability of a secondary
phase is usually approximate, the bug can have a significant effect on the calculated volumes. We very
much regret this error.

5.40

Plotting the actual data points used in a prospect calculation has been revised, and now incorporates
the results as well as the input variables. See Data points. You can also write all the iteration data (input
and results) to a csv file, and mess about with it in a spreadsheet.

Fluid correlations and unit conversions have been moved to a new menu item called "Tools" on main
REP window. Two new facilities are available here

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Calculator is a tool where you enter your own probability distributions and equations, and make a
MC calculation. You can duplicate many of the standard REP calculations, though of course you do
not have access to the fancy stuff like area-depth and Sw-height.

PDF fit fits normal, lognormal and beta distributions to data. These data can be anything, and are
loaded most conveniently from the clipboard, though you can also read them direct from an XL
spreadsheet or csv file.

When you are linked to a database, the key entries in prospect identification (e.g. basin and play) are
optionally drop-down ( ) lists where the lists are constructed from the database. It is not necessary to
choose an item from the list, but can make it easier when you come to submit your prospect to the
database.

In production profiles, a limiting decline rate has been added to the hyperbolic decline function. This is
useful for shale gas and other tight reservoir forecasts.

In fluid correlations you can know calculate total sorbed gas content from a Langmuir isotherm.

5.32e

In consolidations, you can now link models in input prospects. See dependent models.

5.32c

Normal and log-normal distributions are defined by any two points on the distribution. You can now
customise the distribution to allow entry of any two points you want, not just P50/P10 etc. See
distribution styles.

There are a number of "tidies" in the loading of projects, and XL export.

5.32

In the GRV model, it is now possible to define the base of the hydrocarbon column as the minimum of
spill point and column height. You must of course enter both distributions. See Gross Rock Volume.

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The full printout format has been revised and now includes all comments and other data.

You can enter deterministic values and plot them on a reality plot. These values are not generated by
REP, they are single values from another source - e.g. a static or dynamic model result. See
Deterministic estimates and Reality plot.

5.31

There's a new risking scheme 16, based on scheme 8 (a minimum risking scheme). It also includes an
adjustment for any amplitude anomaly, which can be positive or negative. This adjustment is added to
the usual GPOS calculated by multiplying the main factors.

The approval/appraisal procedure prospect ID has been updated. It now has its own tab, and you can
set your own list of titles for the people involved in "Installation | Approvals list".

Also in prospect ID, there is a new classification: "Status". This is Concept, Lead Prospect or Discovery.
Prospect class now reflects the likely uncertainty in the prospect volumes (green field, step-out etc.).
Resource class follows PRMS. Note that all these can be customised if you want.

You can now put in comments associated with economic cut-offs and consolidation common risk.

5.30K

The tornado plot of the sensitivity to input variables has been changed slightly. See Sensitivity plots.

5.3

CO2 sequestration estimates can now be made.

You can now keep sets of prospects and consolidations in projects.

In Setup - user options you can choose always to load the last file or last project when you start the
program.

In Prospects:

You can plot input variable distributions for multiple prospects, models and layers. See Input data

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plots.

You can "freeze" an existing evaluation, and start a new one from the same data. This enables you to
see how it evolves with time, and you can plot pre- vs. post drill (or any other combination of
evaluations) for one or more prospects. See Prospect evolution.

In gas condensate reservoirs, you can now calculate condensate recovery using a distribution for initial
condensate yield and a liquids recovery factor. This is an alternative to using field average condensate
yield with a single value for initial condensate yield. See Gas Condensate Reservoirs.

The model entry dialog is revised, and comes with a decision tree. Note, in particular, that you can
make a model hierarchy.

There is a new risk table, so that you can summarise and edit the risking for multiple prospects.

There is a new template builder for single line prospect export to XL (for prospect inventories).

Net pay thickness maps can now be digitised and used for GRV calculations.

You can make a consolidation of the current loaded prospects.

In Consolidations:

The consolidation input screen is redesigned.

You can show a consolidation as a decision tree. If the prospects being consolidated have production
forecasts, you can use the decision tree to show consolidated forecasts for individual outcomes.

On the File | Recent files menu of the main window there is an option Recent file list. This produces a
list of all the most recently used files sorted by type (prospect, consolidation etc.). Double click a file
name to load it.

There is a new (and dangerous) option to calculate a consolidation setting all underlying prospect risks
to 100%. Click here; but make sure your CV is up to date before doing so.

5.27

Saturation-height functions can now be applied by layer; previously you could only define one function
for all layers. The entry dialog has also been slightly modified so that the table and plot always reflects
the current function.

Also in Sw-height, there is a new equation: Sw = a + b.log(h) + c.log(h)^2 + d.log(h)^3} / phi^e

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5.26b3

Dependencies involving clipped distributions are now properly set up.

5.26

You can now make realizations (scenarios) of the P90, P50, P10 and mean reserve cases. See
Realizations

When using column height, the program now checks the variables correctly and, in the case of an oil
+gas model, does not moan if there is no gas-oil contact defined (although, having moaned, it made
the correct calculation anyway).

A new type of dependency ("relational") is introduced. See Dependencies.

You can choose not to display recoverable volumes on the printed output. Select this option either
from Setup | User options and go to the Results presentation tab; or in the prospect or consolidation
window go to File | Print options where the choice can be made either in All options or by clicking In-
place volumes only (this acts as a toggle so that the same menu item is used to switch back).

In the fluid correlations, the oil formation volume factor Bo (which should always be greater than 1.0) is
now blanked out if the particular combination of input parameters lies outside the scope of the
correlation. The scope of the correlations themselves has been widened.

5.25

In dual porosity systems the program will now detail the numerical split between primary and
secondary volumes. This is the 1ary/2ary button on the summary dialog in the prospects section. You
can also get printed output, either by doing a full printout, or by selecting the 1ary/2ary volumes
checkbox in the Print | Pages option.

5.24

You can now show cross-plots and distributions of the inputs to a consolidation. See Graphs of input
data.

Also in Consolidations:

In the input files screen you can show the input reserves as whole trap or company share (whole trap is

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now the default). Note that the setting in this dialog will control also the display on the printout.

The sampling has been improved.

You can do some simple administration tasks on groups (folders and subfolders) of files. See File
Database Administration

5.23

You can now define a beta distribution using P90, mode and P10. To do this, click the [Style] button
when entering the distribution.

Standard deviation is calculated for output distributions, and shown on the "More stats" dialog. To
show SD's on printed output, go to Setup | Installation, make sure you are using summary sheet style 5
and tick the "Show output SD's" checkbox.

5.22c

Several bug fixes and improvements in Consolidation entry:

The [Plot] button now works (and shows the input distributions) and in the resulting plot you can see
either risked or unrisked distributions.

You can show either whole trap or net-to-company input volumes (previously it was always net). This
choice is also mirrored in the printed summaries.

You can sort the input variable table by right clicking in a column header to sort by the values in that
column; right clicking twice reverses the order of the sort. This is a surprisingly useful facility. Note that
the order of the input files is in principle irrelevant to the calculation but you may not get identical
results since the random number usage may be different.

In the prospect ID section some entries in the "geological" section (for example, depth to crest, base
column etc.) can be retrieved from data entered later. Come back to this page when you have
completed the main data entry and click the [Retrieve] button.

The line colour in the spider sensitivity plots are correct.

Writing version 5.01 prospect files now works again.

5.22b

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The "probability of achieving the mean" value now has two representations: unrisked and risked. The
risked value is equal to the unrisked value multiplied by EPOS multiplied by phase chance.

5.22a

Bug fix: in an oil case with a gas cap, the probability of the gas cap was always taken to be 100% where
the GRV model was either a single distribution or from area/thickness/depth. Similarly for a gas case
with a less-than-100% chance of an oil rim, the chance was always set to 100%. This is now fixed.

When you opened a file, having several already open, the program would occasionally position itself at
one of the previously opened ones. This is now fixed.

Filenames are no longer converted to lower case.

In XL export, carriage return/linefeeds are stripped from comments, which makes them more visible in
XL.

When using dummies in consolidations, the GPOS for all phases in a dummy are linked.

Layers are now indicated on area-depth plots.

The mean value of variables is now shown in the variable list.

The effective distribution of a dependent variable is now shown in the tables.

5.21a/b/c

The decision (entry) of whether to use hydrocarbon contacts or spill point/degree of fill is now part of
the GRV section. There is also a third option - column height. This allows you to enter a hydrocarbon
column height rather than a contact or spill point depth.

You can now shade your graphs (both hardcopy and on the screen) by hydrocarbon type. See Results
Presentation.

You can export data direct to XL (i.e. bypassing a macro file). See Exporting Data to XL Spreadsheets.

You may find that file sizes are bigger. This is because we have increased the resolution of the output
data (more bins). With multi-model evaluations the results could be very smeared and even though the
numbers were correct the visualization was poor.

When you have multiple models in a prospect, or more than one prospect loaded, you can copy
variable distributions from the current prospect or model to others. Click the [Copy..] button in the
variable entry dialog. For more details click here.

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A new option "Calculate all" on the Calculate menu allows you to to recalculate all the currently loaded
prospects. This is useful when you have used the "Apply distributions" feature (described above) to
update distributions in lots of prospects.

In prospects, the entry of Variable Dependencies now allows you to see the statistics (P100, P50, P10
and mean) of the dependent variable. This is a useful reality check. The plotting of the dependency
relations is also improved.

5.20h

In the case of prospects and consolidations with an economic cut-off, the risked mean was being
calculated as technical success mean x EPOS (economic probability of success). This has now been
changed to:

Risked mean = technical success mean volume x GPOS (geological probability of success).

There is a new risking scheme, scheme 10, which is similar to scheme 9. The layout of the entry dialogs
for both schemes has been slightly altered.

You can select the printer to use from an item on the "File" menu of the first (main REP) window.

5.20f

There is a new layers option: unconformity traps. See Prospect Layers.

5.20e

The Pert distribution is now called the Beta in the input drop-down lists.

There was an error with the Pert distribution - now fixed - when the mode was very close to the
maximum. This also caused the sensitivity plots to go blank.

5.20a-d

Minor bug fixes.

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5.20

A new distribution has been added - the "Beta". It is defined by a minimum, mode and maximum.
When symmetric, it looks like the normal distribution; when skewed, like the log-normal distribution. It
avoids the pitfalls of the triangular shape, but does not extend beyond the defined maximum. There is
information on the web, see for example www.riskamp.com/library/pertdistribution.php.

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10 Resources
This section houses resources and appendices for your reference.

The eight topics are:

Printing

Installation

Exporting Data to XL Spreadsheets

Data Export Template

File Database Administration

Unit Conversions

Glossary of Terms

Data Dictionary

10.1 Printing
This page is split into three sections:

Print Options: This section outlines the different print options available in the summary screens for both
Prospect/Field and Consolidations.

Print Formats: This section outlines the three different output formats available.

Printer Settings: This section explains how to change the fundamental printer settings.

Print Options
You will find the print options in the File menu of the Prospect/Field and Consolidations summary screens.

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There are five printing options on each summary screen:

Print Preview
This allows you to take a quick look at your output before sending it to your printer. You can zoom in and
check individual pages before printing them.

Print
Print just prints the selected report, either to the current windows printer or to the current CGM file, depending
on the option set in Print Options (see below).

Print Options
This allows you to switch between Windows printing and CGM (metafile) output. To enable CGM output,
choose Print Options and change the printer to CGM file and click on the [x] to close the window. This then
means that when you next select Print, the output will go to a CGM file of your choice.

[Note: '_[page#]' will be appended to the file name that you choose. For example, if you choose 'Prosp.cgm'
as your file name, then the pages will be written to 'Prosp_1.cgm', 'Prosp_2.cgm' etc. This is because many
packages (notably Word and PowerPoint) cannot display multi-page CGM files. Please also note that Print
Preview does the same as Print when in CGM file mode. To re-enable Print Preview, go back into Print Options
and reselect 'Windows Printer'.]

Here, you may also choose to hide economic criteria and non-in-place volumes (i.e. recoverable) from
printouts.

Windows Metafile
This option sends the selected report to an '.emf' or '.bmp' file of your choice. Please note that, in release
v4.12, only the first page of a multi-page report will be exported.

Printer/Page Setup
Allows you to change page attributes, such as: paper size, orientation, margins, etc.

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Print Formats

There are three ways in which to present your output:

Printout Summary
Printout summary reduces your output to a summarised two-page report.

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Printout Pages
Printout pages allows you to individually select the pages you would like to be included in the printout.

Printout Full
Printout full, as you would expect, prints out a complete report.

Printer Settings

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It is possible to adjust the default printer settings on the REP start-up page by selecting File | Select Printer.
This opens the Print Setup page where you may choose your default printer and any settings that you would
like to set as a standard for your output.

10.2 Installation (for Windows)


REP For Windows has been written for the Windows operating system.

REP requires 15Mb of free disc space and will not install unless this is available on your hard disc. This is the
only hardware requirement. Any machine which is powerful enough to run Windows is capable of running REP.

REP may have been delivered via e-mail, CD or from our website, www.logicomep.com. If it has been
delivered on CD or electronically, it will be a single self-installing executable which can be run directly from
your download directory or from within your e-mail package.

After Installation
Before you can run the program, you will need to obtain a licence from us. To do this, start the program. A
window will appear with a line:

Program usage not authorised on this machine,

your machine ID is: xxxxxxxx

Fax or e-mail this number to us (use the e-mail, support@logicomep.com). We will send back three numbers
and a list of check-boxes to be enabled. Run the program again and enter these numbers into the same
screen. Click OK and the program will start.

From time to time, you may be denied entry to the program due to the licensing system detecting a problem:

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This can be for a number of reasons:

1 you haven't yet licensed the program on the PC you are using,

2 the licence period has terminated,

3 you've exceeded the allowed number of simultaneous users,

4 you don't have sufficient privileges in the program directory.

(The last two problems usually occur if the program is installed on a network disk. Ask your system manager
to contact us if he or she needs any assistance in fixing the problem.)

If you have already received licence codes, fill in the details and click on OK. If not, fax/e-mail the Machine ID
to us, QUIT the program and try again when you receive the codes.

If you have received updated licence codes BEFORE your licence has lapsed (for example, to enable extra
options or extend your licence period), select 'Env-Licensing' from the REP blue screen menu then enter the
details and click OK.

If the licensing window reappears with a 'too many users' error, just click CANCEL and you should be allowed
back into the program. If not, click on QUIT and rerun the program.

10.3 Exporting Data to XL Spreadsheets


There are three ways to export data to XL:

Exporting "Single Line" Data to an XL Spreadsheet: puts the prospect data on a single line, building up a
form of prospect inventory spreadsheet.

Export Direct to XL: replaces the older export via macro and allows you to place selected prospect data
in an XL file.

Exporting Via a Macro: writes the data in .csv format (which can be read into most spreadsheets directly
anyway) and a macro file, which can be run from XL, to populate the cells.

Please note that XL is a product of Microsoft Corporation and odd things can occur when exporting, especially
if you have the misfortune to be using the wonderful Vista operating system.

Exporting " Single line" Data to an XL Spreadsheet


You can export key prospect/field data to an XL spreadsheet. The data will normally be written on a single row
("record") in the spreadsheet (see below for Multi-line Output). At the same time, you can put a copy of the
current REP file into an archive folder (see below for Making Archive Files).

A typical use of this facility is to populate a prospect inventory.

There are two files necessary to make this operation work:

1. The XL spreadsheet.

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2. A "template" file which links REP data to cell locations in the spreadsheet.

So, first create your spreadsheet.

[Note: From version 5.3 this can also be done from the template creation dialog. See 'Data Export Template'
for more information.]

The spreadsheet can be anywhere on your system (it need not be in the REP program directory or a specific
project area). All you really need to do is create the column headings. Each column that you want REP to
populate should be named. Naming a cell is a particular XL feature. Click in the cell and then in the XL header
bar where the cell location is shown (B2 for example) type in a name. (If you want to delete a cell name, you
probably cannot do it by simple overtyping. Go to Insert | Name | Define and delete the old name before
making a new one. This is because, in XL, a cell can have more than one name.)

If your column titles span more than one row then name the bottom cells in the row. Make sure all the named
cells are on the same row.

It is not necessary that every column is named, just those you want REP to put data into.

[Note: It is now possible to use cell locations rather than names.]

Next, create the template file, see our 'Data Export Template' section to learn how.

[Note: The version 5.3 template maker cannot read old templates - but they do still work.]

When you choose the File | Export | to XL summary file, you will see the following dialog:

You can choose the export files defined for the site (in 'Setup | Installation | Location of files'), the
export files defined for you the user (in 'Setup | User options | Location of files') or you can use
specified files, in which case you should browse for those you want to use.

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You can choose to export the current prospect file or all loaded files.

Making Archive Files


If you want to archive a copy of the current REP file as part of this export process then you need to do two
things:

1. Define the archive path (folder) where you want the files to be written. This is done in Setup | User
options | Location of files. (See 'User Options' for details.) This folder can be anywhere accessible to
your system and is typically a network location (which has the added benefit of allowing your friendly IT
department to move the folder, delete all the files, take the network down just at the wrong moment,
etc. and therefore letting you practice venting a little anger - if you need to).

2. Define a column in your spreadsheet to record the archive file name. The archive filename is the
prospect filename with a date/time stamp inserted at the beginning. Unless you are working at close to
the speed of light, the archive filename will always be unique. The REP database reference is "table =
pr_id" and "column = arch_file". So the line in the template file will be something like:

, Sheet1, archive, pr_id, , arch_file, ,

Multi-line Output
It is possible to put the prospect data on more than one line. Use cell locations rather than names for the
spreadsheet references. Have a line in the template:

*firstrow, 2

This indicates the first data row in the spreadsheet (in this case "2", obviously),

Then you could have a set of rows like this:

! Water Saturation

,InputSheet ,BC1 ,pr_var ,sw ,v-mean , ,%

,InputSheet ,BC2 ,pr_var ,sw ,v-p90 , ,%

,InputSheet ,BC3 ,pr_var ,sw ,v-p50 , ,%

,InputSheet ,BC4 ,pr_var ,sw ,v-p10 , ,%

This would put mean Sw in the first row for this prospect and P90, P50 and P10 in the same column on the
rows below.

Export Direct to XL
There are two files necessary to make this operation work:

1. The XL spreadsheet.

2. A "template" file which links REP data to cell locations in the spreadsheet.

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First create your spreadsheet (or you can modify the EXP_XL.XLS file that is distributed with the program -
you will find it in the DBDEFS folder where the program is installed). Save the spreadsheet anywhere on your
system - it need not be in the REP program directory or a specific project area.

The template file will refer to XL cells either by column and row (for example B22) or by name. Naming a cell
is a particular XL feature. Click in the cell and then in the XL header bar where the cell location is shown (B22
for example) type in a name. (If you want to delete a cell name, you cannot do it by simple overtyping. Go to
Insert | Name | Define and delete the old name before making a new one. This is because, in XL, a cell can
have more than one name.) You may be thinking, 'names seem a bit of a pain' and so they are but they are
very useful because if you move a cell or a group of cells the name moves too. So you can tinker with the
layout, add stuff, etc. (and everybody does this) without having to change the template. Naming cells is
recommended.

Next, create the template file - or modify EXP_XL.CSV, which is distributed with the program. This is a comma-
delimited text file, which can be edited using any text editor or XL. Below the column identifiers at the top of
the file, find the lines with eight columns. Each line in the template file corresponds to an entry in the XL
spreadsheet. The template columns are:

1. Index flag: not used in this form of export.

2. XL Sheet: the name of the XL sheet in your spreadsheet. This will normally be the same for each entry
in the template.

3. XL_Cell: the XL name of the cell you want to put data into. This can also be a row.column reference,
e.g. B22. Do not name a cell P50 - REP will assume this is column P, row 50.

4. Table: the REP data table which has the data to export to the named cell.

5. Qualifier: normally a results phase modifier - e.g. Totgas. It is not always required.

6. Column: the REP table column name.

7. Row: the row in the REP table you want to export. Many REP tables only have one row, in which case
this can be blank.

8. Unit: the unit you want the data to be written out in, e.g. bcm, mmstb, %. You are strongly advised
to use the units entry for all reserve numbers otherwise you are in danger of having mixed units in your
spreadsheet.

The REP data tables, with their qualifiers (in the case of results tables) and the column and rows are listed in
the 'Data Dictionary'.

Most of the entries are self-explanatory. Some are less so:

Chances are in the table pr_ch. The row of the table determined which chance is being referred. Refer to
the 'Data Dictionary' to see the list of chance codes you can use.

Reserve numbers are in the tables pr_rsum. There is a table for each hydrocarbon type. Set the table
qualifier to the type you want - choose from GRV, OIP, GIP, WGIP, CIP, RECO, RECG, ASSOIL, ASSGAS,
CONDO, CONDG, TOTOIL, TOTGAS, or BOE. Columns in the table relate to the reserve levels (P50,
mean etc.). Lines in the table refer to different categories: these are net or gross (whole trap) - net and
gr and unrisked, risked and economically successful volumes - unr, rsk and suc. Concatenate these two
types with an underscore, e.g. net_unr, gr_suc, gr_rsk, etc.

Distributions can also be exported. They are in table pr_rvec, qualifier as for any results and columns as
per the rows in the reserve number tables. In the "row" put an @ character. The distribution vector is
written down the spreadsheet (and there may be up to 500 entries). For example:

,Dists,TOTOIL_value_gr ,pr_rvec ,totoil ,value_gr ,@ , , ,oil values

,Dists,TOTOIL_rel_unr_gr ,pr_rvec ,totoil ,rel_unr_gr ,@ , , ,relative probability

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,Dists,TOTOIL_cum_unr_gr ,pr_rvec ,totoil ,cum_unr_gr ,@ , , ,cumulative probability

Several hours cursing and struggling with XL's graphing facility will allow you to make a very pretty picture of
the results.

[Note: If you get stuck, please e-mail us and we will advise.]

The final step is to tell REP about the two files you have created: go to Setup | User Options and the
Location of files tab, enter the file names in the XL export file box. Click [Save and Close] to update your
defaults.

To make the export, load a prospect, do the calculations if necessary and then click File | Export | To
Prospect file | Direct. The second option ("Specify") allows you to specify the master spreadsheet and
template on the fly. You can also ask to write a progress log, this is very useful if the program crashes while
writing to XL because you can see which piece of data is causing the mayhem and fix it in the template file.

Any errors in the export (for example if REP cannot find the named cell in the spreadsheet) are reported in the
log file.

[Note: Do not have the XL spreadsheet open when you do the export. When XL has a spreadsheet open, it
"locks" it so other programs cannot access it. This is also true of the template file if you are using XL to edit
it.]

By default, the new spreadsheet is renamed to that of the prospect file (but with the extension .xls of course)
and written to the REP data file folder. If a spreadsheet with this name already exists, you will be asked
whether you wish to overwrite it, say [Yes].

You will see the spreadsheet being populated. Do not mess about with it while it is being populated - it gets
upset.

Export Via Macro


You may export REP data to a comma-delimited (.csv) file for easy import into an XL spreadsheet. To
accommodate standard spreadsheet set-ups you can customize which REP data elements go into which cells in
the spreadsheet.

The procedure is as follows:

1. Create the template file specifying which REP data goes where on the spreadsheet (you need do this
only once).

2. In Setup | User options | Location of files, make sure the program knows the name of this file.

3. Export the data from the prospect/field module using File | Export | To XL prospect file | via Macro.

4. Run XL and attach the REPXL macro file provided with REP. Run this macro and watch in amazement as
the cells fill up with REP data.

Creating the Template File


The template file links REP data to spreadsheet cells. It is extremely simple - all you need to know are the
names of the REP data elements and, of course, where you want to put them.

Distributed with the program is an example file called XLSPEC.CSV. You will find this in the program area of
you installation, in sub-directory DBDEFS. It is a good idea to modify this rather than create a new one from
scratch. Edit the file using an ASCII editor such as notepad or XL. There are a few header lines which you
should leave as they are and then the bulk of the file consisting of REP data names and XL cell references.

The name of a REP data elements is in three parts: a table name, a table qualifier (used only for variables and

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phase results) and an element name. For example, the net working interest (exploration interest) is:

Table PR_LEG

Qualifier

Element name NWI

The mean porosity is:

Table PR_VAR

Qualifier POR

Element name MEAN

The P50 recoverable gas is:

Table PR_RES

Qualifier RECG

Element name P50

See 'Data Dictionary' for the current list of tables, table qualifiers and element names

The XL cell references are in two parts: sheet name and cell reference.

Once you have made the file to your satisfaction, it is a good idea to rename it and save it somewhere "safe",
i.e. not in the program area; other users or a new version of the software may overwrite what you have done.
The full filename of the template you wish to use should be entered in your user environment under the file
locations tab.

Exporting the Data from REP


To export the data from REP, load up a prospect and, if necessary, recalculate the results. Then go to File |
Export | XLS macro file. You are prompted for a file name - by default this will be the name of the prospect
file but with extension .csv. In your user environment under the file locations tab you can specify in which
directory you wish to write these export files. The file is then written.

Importing the data into XL


Load up your XL spreadsheet. You need to load in a macro, which we provide, called REPXL. So go to Tools |
Macros | Visual Basic Editor. Your spreadsheet is hidden behind a new and formidable-looking VBA window.
But do not panic - at least not yet. Choose File | Import. A standard file open dialog appears. You need to
import one file: REPXL.BAS. This file is distributed with the REP program and should be in the program area in

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sub-directory DBDEFS. Once you have loaded this file, check to see what name XL has given it. Your
spreadsheet may have an old copy of the macro already loaded. The correct one has the text (near the top):

EntryPoint8 provides access to standard windows file browser

You should probably delete any other 'RepXL' macros (highlight the old one and click File>Remove) and then
close the VBA window. Your spreadsheet should re-appear.

Now go to Tools | Macro | Macros... You should see a list of all your attached macros, one of them should
be called RepXL. Highlight this one, and click [Run].

The macro runs and a file browser window opens, prompting you for a filename. This is the same .csv filename
as you entered when exporting the data from REP (see above).

Once you have done this process once or twice, it is extremely quick.

10.4 Data Export Template


You can create and edit export templates. Go to File | Export | to XL summary file. In the export dialog,
click the Make template button.

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On the left of the dialog is a list of all the data entities that you might wish to export to the spreadsheet. On
the right is the definition of the template. The basic action is to double-click an entity on the left and add it to
the list on the right.

If you are starting from scratch, consider using the Tools | Default option to load up all the possible data into
the table. Note that loading everything gives more than 256 column, so you'll need Excel 2007 or later.

XL file Enter the file directory or use the [>] to browse.

XL sheet This is the name of the sheet in the XL spreadsheet. Sheet1 is the XL default.

Row The first row of data in the spreadsheet.

Table

Index Check any column which forms an index key - a combination of columns which
uniquely define the prospect. Usually prospect name, block and country will do it.

Column The XL column in which to place these data specifies in the next column.

Data The REP data to export.

Qualifier A qualifier of the data to be exported - e.g. which P value for results. If you choose
data by double clicking in the tree on the left, this entry will be populated
automatically.

Unit Where applicable, the unit you want to use. See Units button below.

Code Used by REP to identify the data.

Buttons

Up/down Move data up and down the column list

Insert Adds a blank entry line above the current row in the table, and moves all the entries
below "down" a column

Delete Deletes the data at the current row, and moves all the entries below "up" a column

Units Changed the units of all entries of the same type in the template to be the same as
the unit is the current row. For example, if the current row is Oil-in-place, and the
current unit mmstb, all oil volumes in the template are changed to mmstb.

Reset Deletes all the entries

Menu options

File open,save Opens, saves etc templates


etc

Make this the Makes the current template the default for export. This updates the entry in the
default template "Setup | User options | Location of files" dialog. All exports of this type will use this
template.

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Tools | default Makes new templates from scratch. There are three options: Everything, Hydrocarbon
and CO2. The Hydrocarbon and CO2 options just puts entries into the template
suitable for those resource types.

Make XL Makes a new XL spreadsheet with columns corresponding to the template entries.

Note:

1. The sheet name is always Sheet1, regardless of what you've got in the template
spec. Change it in the spreadsheet to what you want, before saving it.

2. The spreadsheet is unformatted. It's up to you to make it look nice.

Load XL Starts XL and loads up the current XL file. The current XL is as defined in the "Setup |
User options | Location of files" dialog.

New template

Open template

Save template

Save template as...

Help

Close

10.5 File Database Administration


This facility allows you to list REP files and validate and check ID's. You can use it to back up your files data
base and also to create lists of basins, plays, prospects, etc.

Run the module by choosing File | File database admin from the first REP window.

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Creating The List


The first thing to do is to create the list of files. On the right hand window, in the Source box, enter the root
folder. Any files in this and - optionally - any sub-folders will be searched. By clicking the relevant check-
boxes, you can search for .ppr, .pco and/or .pla files (prospect, consolidation and play files).

You can look for particular files by using the match entry. Enter a text string with wild cards: for example,
entering "dodgy*" will find all files starting with the letters d-o-d-g-y. The matching test is done on the file
name, excluding the folder.

Then click the [Search...] button on the Options tab. The program finds the files and opens them to read the
basin, play, country and clock of each one. When it is done (and it may take some time, especially if you are
searching over a network) it will display the list on the List tab on the right hand side.

Checking The List


All the file properties that can be listed are shown in the Report columns tab on the left hand side. Use the
check box to flick on and off the properties you are interested in.

In the list on the right side, click in a column header to sort it according to the contents of that column.

[Note: Column BU is Group/Business unit. Column Date is the date as recorded in the file and SDate is the
same date but in the sort-friendly format yy-mm-dd.]

You can export the list to the clipboard by clicking on the top left cell of the table (so that the whole table turns
black) and clicking Ctrl-c, the standard Windows short-cut for copy to clipboard. Then in Excel, or any other
Windows compatible software, click Ctrl-v or Edit | Paste.

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You can edit cells entries in the table just by over typing. This is best for occasional entries or where the entry
is blank; where the same ID needs to be changed in lots of files, it is best done as per the next section.

An entry with changed ID has a red text.

Background colours:

Red The file cannot be read

Light Has the same business unit, basin, play, prospect name, segment and country as another file.
green

As with light green, but additionally has the same mean total recoverable oil and gas, GPOS and
Dark EPOS as another file.
green

Updating The ID Parameters In Memory


On the tasks pane, there are five lists to make: basins, basin/plays, basin/plays/prospects, countries/blocks,
countries/blocks/prospects. Each list brings up a new dialog, in which you can edit (respectively) the basin
names, play names, prospect names, block names and prospect names (again). It is best to start with basins,
then do plays, then prospects and so on. The edited name should be entered in the "Authorised Name"
column. An entry which has nothing in the authorised name column will not be altered. Click the [...] button to
copy the current name into the authorised name column, where it can be edited.

When you have done your changes, click the [Update] button.

Note: This only updates the list in memory, it does not update the files. This can be done later.

Backing Up The Files To Be Updated


You can make back-up copies of all the files you are about to update. Choose the "Backup files to be updated"
option in the task menu. But first, you need to specify where the files are to be copied. Do this on the Options
tab on the right. Browse to a path. If you want to make a new sub-folder in this path, click "New subfolder"
and give it a name.

If you want to make a backup copy of all the files in the search path, check the "Copy all files" box.

Updating The Files On Disk


Click Update files to make the required changes to the actual REP files. Only those with changed entries will be
updated (even if you have backed up all of them).

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Options

Source

Root The folder to search for REP data files

Search Tick this box if you want to search sub-folders


subfolders

Search... Click this button to start the search

Look for

Prospect Check if you want to search for prospect files


files

Consolidati Check if you want to search for consolidation files


on files

Play files Check if you want to search for play files

Match Enter a match criterion. You can use wildcard characters. e.g. hu* will match any file
that starts "hu"

Back-up

Path The folder where backup files will be written. It must already exist

New folder Check if you want to make a new folder ..

Folder .. and give it a name

Copy Tick if you want to make a backup of all the files in the search path, regardless of
everything whether they have been changed or not.

10.6 Units

Units are subdivided into dimensions such as length, volume, density etc.; and further subdivided into
"unit series". These unit series are lists of units common to a particular measurement. So, for example,
the dimension volume includes unit series named oil volume and gas volume. Within these series you
will find the common units (barrels, cubic metres...) for these particular measurements. You will not find
cubic inches or acre-feet, even though these are also volumes. You may find the unit series somewhat
eclectic, however you will soon find your way through it.

Often the software will know and have assigned a unit series. When you click the units drop-down
you will see a dialog like this:

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Click the unit you require, and check "Convert" if you wish any existing value to be converted to the
new unit.

The are occasions when the software does not know, for example when identifying data or using the
PDF calculator. In this case units are specified in the unit tree view:

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Convert Check this box if you wish to convert any existing values you have entered. (This
applies only when you have come from a single entry. It may not apply, for example,
to array data.

All units Where the unit series is already defined for your entry, the tree will show only the
units for that series. Click "all units" to show the full units tree.

Expand tree Expand/collapse the tree. Only applies when all units are shown

Filter Set a filter on the units. This is very useful when you know the unit, but don't recall
which series it is in. See below for more details

Help Help -shows this help page

Exit/Close Closes the window

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Filters

A filter lops the tree so it only shows units containing the filter. In this example all the units with "acre"
in them are shown:

You can keep the filter but disable it by clicking the filter toolbar icon again (it's a toggle).

Unit converter

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This simple facility makes unit conversions. See above for a discussion on how the unit system works

Make sure the units are in the same series!

10.7 UTM conversion

In this dialog you can convert from UTM co-ordinates to latitude/longitude, and vice-versa

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Conversion

To UTM / to Choose which way the conversion is to go.


lat/long

Lat/Long

Spheroid The "spheroid" is the approximate shape of the earth. Unless you know
otherwise, use "WGS 1984" as this gives a good approximation worldwide.
Others may be closer in specific areas, but you should only use one of these if
you know it's the right thing to do.

Latitude The latitude entered as dd mm ss.sssN/S (N/S == north or south)

Longitude The longitude entered as dd mm ss.sssE/W (E/W == east or west)

Lat/ Convert from latitude/longitude to decimal degrees.


long<>degree

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UTM

Meridian The meridian is the line of longitude near your location. Usually it is an odd
multiple of 3 degrees (e.g. -9, -3, +15 etc.) although, again specific areas and/or
specific companies may be different. Some companies use 0 degrees for their
North Sea interests, for example

UTM north The UTM north coordinate

UTM east The UTM east coordinate

Southern Check if the location is in the southern hemisphere.


hemisphere
Note: UTMs are always positive, regardless of whether the location is in the
southern or northern hemisphere. 10 million is applied to the north component
as appropriate.

10.8 Glossary of Terms

Prospects, or segments of a prospect, have common chance if the


outcome of one of them (success or failure) alters the chance of success
Common chance in the other. Some or all of the elements which make up overall
geological chance of success (trap, seal, reservoir, charge, etc.) may be
common.

Consolidation The addition of volumes

Variables are dependent when the value of one of them depends on the
value of the other. For example, when porosity increases it is often
observed that water saturation decreases.
Dependency
Risks are dependent when the outcome of one prospect (success or
failure) alters the chance of success of another.

A calculation of prospect or field volumes using one value for each input.
Deterministic calculation People used to do this in the old days - incredible but true.

The chance that a prospect will have an economically successful result.


EPOS, or Chance of Economic success is judged by economic hurdles or cut-offs, which are
Economic Success minimum quantities of recoverable oil and/or gas.

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The hydrocarbon volume in the reservoir divided by the hydrocarbon


volume at surface ("standard conditions").

For oil, the FVF (known as Bo) is a number greater than 1, because
oil shrinks as gas is released on its way to the surface.
Formation volume factor
For gas, REP uses the inverse of the FVF ((1/Bg) so the number is
again greater than 1. Also known as the gas expansion factor.

Note that "standard conditions" may be defined differently in different


countries, though the differences are usually trivial, at least in a REP
context.

Gas expansion factor See Formation volume factor above.

The amount of gas which is produced along with oil, from an oil reservoir.
This gas has 2 sources: 1. solution gas, dissolved in the oil and released
when the pressure is reduced; 2. free gas produced from a gas cap.
GOR (Gas Oil Ratio)
In REP, you need to enter the solution gas-oil ratio, since any gas cap is
handled separately.

The chance that a prospect will discover producible hydrocarbons. The


geological chance of success is a combination of underlying chances,
including reservoir, trap, seal and charge. You may consider the chances
GPOS, or Chance of of success at a regional (play) or at a prospect specific level.
Geological Success
Different companies have different ways of risking prospects, and REP
has several different risking schemes. Do not mix them up!

Gross reservoir volume The volume of rock in the trap above the hydrocarbon-water contact.

The volume of rock in the trap above a certain depth, usually the spill
Gross rock volume (GRV) point or hydrocarbon-water contact.

The amount of hydrocarbon (oil or gas) existing in a reservoir. By


convention, in-place volumes are quoted as equivalent volumes at surface
Hydrocarbon-in-place. conditions. This is done using formation volume factors. The volume
actually occupied by hydrocarbon in the reservoir is known as the
hydrocarbon pore volume.

Non-hydrocarbon gas in the reservoir. Common examples are nitrogen


Inert gas and carbon dioxide.

In the Monte-Carlo method, the program chooses random values for each
Iteration input variable (spill point, porosity, etc.) to calculate a result. It does this
many times. Each time it does it is called an iteration or realization.

A vertical subdivision of a single reservoir interval. In a REP context,


layers have distinct thickness, net-to-gross ratio, porosity, water
Layer saturation and recovery factor. Layers have the same structural shape
(defined by the area/depth table of the top layer), hydrocarbon contact or
spill point and hydrocarbon type.

An unproven accumulation of hydrocarbons, and an early stage of


Lead technical appreciation. When the work has been done, the lead may
become a prospect.

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A particular interpretation or possible outcome of a prospect. A prospect


Model can have any number of models, but only one (at most) can be "correct".

Natural gas liquids "drop out" of gas when the pressure is reduced. REP
considers three basic reservoir hydrocarbon types: oil, gas and gas
NGL condensate. NGL may be produced from gas and gas condensate
reservoirs.

A hydrocarbon for which volumes are calculated; for example, oil-in-


Phase place, recoverable gas.

The chance that a particular hydrocarbon type will be discovered. REP


normally reports phase chance as a relative probability - which can be
Phase chance explained as the chance that oil (for example) is discovered if any
hydrocarbons are discovered at all.

Prospect An unproven accumulation of hydrocarbons. See also Lead above.

Realization See Iteration above.

The proportion of any hydrocarbon existing in a reservoir ("in-place") to


Recovery factor the amount that is expected to be produced ("recoverable").

"Those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially


recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward" (SPE)

Note the vital elements: "commercially recovered" and "known


Reserves accumulation". You cannot have reserves in prospects. You cannot have
sub-commercial reserves. You cannot have reserves-in-place.

Hydrocarbon that can be economically produced.

A bit of a prospect. Segments can be fault blocks, layers or any other


Segment sub-division which has geological identity.

A factor converting recoverable gas volumes to sales gas volumes. The


Shrinkage factor difference between the two includes shrinkage due to further liquids
extraction, fuel gas usage etc.. Use of shrinkage is option in REP.

The chance that a particular hydrocarbon type will be discovered.

10.9 Data Dictionary


This section is split into the following five tables:

Data Dictionary

Codes For Input Variable Names

Codes For Results Phases

Codes For Chances

Codes For Chance Elements

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Data Dictionary

<![if supportMisalignedColumns]>

<![endif]>

Table Column Description

pr_id name Prospect/field name

pr_id country Country

pr_id state State

pr_id segment Segment

pr_id case Case

pr_id block Block

pr_id licence Licence

pr_id basin Basin

pr_id play Play

pr_id model model name

pr_id maploc Location map

pr_id maploca Loc. map asp

pr_id mappla Play map

pr_id mapplaa Play map asp

pr_id mappro Prospect map

pr_id mapproa prosp. map asp

pr_id rclass Class

pr_id id ID

pr_id text Text

pr_id repfile Filename

pr_id model Model

pr_id layer Layer

pr_id hctype Hydrocarbons

pr_id gis_id An identifier to link the

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prospect file to a GIS


entity

pr_legal nri NRI

pr_legal nwi NWI

pr_legal goeq Gas-oil equiv.

pr_legal goequ GOE unit

pr_legal oper Operator

pr_legal appraiser Appraiser

pr_legal app_date Appraisal date

pr_geog waterd Water depth

pr_geog facdist Facility distance

pr_geog wdepun Water depth unit

pr_geog distun Distance unit

pr_geog on/off On/offshore

pr_geog landfall Landfall

pr_geog terrain Terrain

pr_geog ddatum Datum depth

pr_geog latitude Latitude

pr_geog longitude Longitude

pr_geog utmn North UTM co-ordinate (m)

pr_geog utme East UTM co-ordinate (m)

pr_geol res_p Reservoir pressure

pr_geol res_t Reservoir temperature

pr_geol oil_api Oil API

pr_geol trap_area Trap area

pr_geol temp_u Temperature unit

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pr_geol pres_u Pressure unit

pr_geol api_u API unit

pr_geol area_u Area unit

pr_geol trap_ty Trap type

pr_geol trap_set Trap setting

pr_geol trap_setq Trap setting qualifier

pr_geol trap_geo Trap geometry

pr_geol trap_geoq Trap geometry qualifier

pr_geol res_tract Reservoir systems tract

pr_geol res_dep Reservoir depositional env.

pr_geol res_lith Reservoir lithology

pr_geol res_por Reservoir porosity type

pr_geol res_form Reservoir formation

pr_geol sea_tract Seal systems tract

pr_geol sea_dep Seal depositional env.

pr_geol sea_lith Seal lithology

pr_geol res_name Reservoir name

pr_geol sou_name Sopurce name

pr_geol sea_name Seal name

pr_geol mig_mages Migration age

pr_geol mig_gages Generation age

pr_geol trap_ages Trap age

pr_geol res_ages Reservoir age

pr_geol sea_ages Seal age

pr_geol trap_type Trap type

pr_geol trap_geom Trap geometry

pr_geol mig_mem Comments

pr_geol trap_mem Comments

pr_geol res_mem Comments

pr_geol sea_mem Comments

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pr_geol tardep Target depth

pr_geol btardep Base target depth

pr_geol colht Column height

pr_geol ddatumd Datum depth

pr_geol gresth Reservoir thickness

pr_geol depun Depth unit

pr_swht sw-ht Sw-Ht function - height

pr_swht sw-sw Sw-Ht function - Sw

pr_eco ec_oil_ph Oil phase

pr_eco ec_gas_ph Gas phase

pr_eco ec_oil_u Oil unit

pr_eco ec_gas_u Gas unit

pr_eco ec_oil_tot Oil cut-off

pr_eco ec_gas_tot Gas cut-off

pr_var v-name Name

pr_var v-unit Unit

pr_var v-iv -

pr_var v-clip

pr_var v-clipl low clipping value

pr_var v-cliph hign clipping value

pr_var v-shname shape

pr_var v-comm comment

pr_var v-p100 Minimum

pr_var v-p90 P90

pr_var v-p50 P50

pr_var v-p10 P10

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pr_var v-p0 Maximum

pr_var v-mean Mean

pr_var v-mode Mode

pr_var v-sd Standard deviation

pr_var v-pmean Probability at mean

pr_var v-p99 P99

pr_var v-p1 P1

Final mean (arithmetic or


pr_var v-fmean Swanson's)

pr_var v-sw-mean Swanson's mean

pr_vdat value Value vector

pr_vdat prob Probability vector

Chance name (see 'Codes


pr_ch name For Chances' below.)

pr_ch chance Chance value

pr_ch cchance Chance value category

pr_psch psp-trp Trap

pr_psch psp-res Reservoir

pr_psch psp-sea Seal

pr_psch psp-mig Migration

pr_psch psp-sou Source

Risking sub-categories: individual subcategories are extracted using the "row" property. How
may rows (sub-categories) will depend on the risking scheme being used.

pr_chpsp pl-res Play chance - reservoir


sub-categories

Play chance - seal sub-


pr_chpsp pl-sea categories

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Play chance - source sub-


pr_chpsp pl-sou categories

Play chance - trap sub-


pr_chpsp pl-trp categories

Prospect specific chance -


pr_chpsp psp-trp trap sub-categories

Prospect specific chance -


pr_chpsp psp-res reservoir sub-categories

Prospect specific chance -


pr_chpsp psp-sea seal sub-categories

Prospect specific chance -


pr_chpsp psp-mig migration sub-categories

Prospect specific chance -


pr_chpsp psp-sou source sub-categories

Prospect specific chance -


pr_chpsp psp-tim timing sub-categories

pr_aud date Date

pr_aud who Who

pr_aud what What

pr_rsum name Product name

pr_rsum p100 p100

pr_rsum p90 p90

pr_rsum p50 p50

pr_rsum p10 p10

pr_rsum p0 p0

pr_rsum mean mean

pr_rsum mode mode

pr_rsum sd sd

pr_rsum low low

pr_rsum mid mid

pr_rsum high high

pr_rsum prp90 prp90

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pr_rsum prp10 prp10

pr_rsum p00 p00

pr_rsum pmean pmean

pr_rsum p99 p99

pr_rsum p1 p1

pr_rsum fmean fmean

pr_rsum spare1 spare1

pr_rsum det det

pr_rsum sw-mean sw-mean

pr_rsum slope slope

pr_rsum kappa Kappa

pr_rsum spare2

pr_rsum spare3

rep_env e-crp90 Name for P90

rep_env e-crp10 Name for P10

rep_env e-user User name

rep_env e-logofile Logo file

rep_env e-version Prog. version

rep_env e-date Date

rep_env e-gr_name "Gross" name

rep_env e-net_name "Net" name

Codes For Input Variable Names In XL Export

Code Full Name

GRV GRV

AREA Area

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TH Thickness

SHAPE Shape factor

SHTR Shift top reservoir

SHBS Shift base seal

SHBR Shift base reservoir

SPILL Spill point

AERR Area uncertainty

GOC GOC

OWC OWC

GWC GWC

DOF Deg. of fill

PCG %Gas

HTG Gas column height

HTG% Percentage gas column height

HTO Oil column height

STACK Stacking Factor

NTG Net-to-gross

POR Porosity

SW Sw

NTGF NTG (fracture)

PORF Por. (fracture)

SWF Sw (fracture)

BO FVF (Bo)

GOR GOR

BG Dry gas FVF (1/Bg)

OGR NGL/gas ratio

CGR Condensate/gas ratio (condensate case)

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INERTS Percentage of inert gas

RFO Oil recovery factor

RFG Gas recovery factor

RFC Gas condensate recovery factor

RFOF Oil RF (fracture)

RFGF Gas RF (fracture)

RFCF Gas condensate RF (fracture)

BGW Wet gas FVF (1/Bg)

SWERR Sw error

GSHR Dry gas shrinkage

WGSHR Wet gas shrinkage

Codes For Results Phases

Code Full name

GRV GRV

OIP Oil-in-Place

GIP Gas-in-Place

WGIP Wet Gas-in-Place

CIP Condensate-in-Place

RECO Recoverable Oil

RECG Recoverable Gas

ASSOIL NGL (from gas)

ASSGAS Solution Gas (from oil)

COIL Oil (from gas cond.)

CGAS Gas (from gas cond.)

TOTOIL Total Rec. Oil

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TOTGAS Total Rec. Gas

BOE Oil Equivalent

NGL Total NGL

Reservoir thickness

RTH (for models with reservoir layers)

gr_unr gross (whole trap) unrisked technically successfulc

gr_eco gross (whole trap) unrisked economically successful

net_unr net (company share) unrisked technically successful

net_eco net (company share) unrisked economically successful

Codes For Chances

Code Chance

pl_reservoir Play chance - reservoir

pl_source Play chanve - source

pl_seal Play chance - seal

psp_reservoir Prospect specific chance - reservoir

psp_seal Prospect specific chance - seal

psp_trap Prospect specific chance - trap

psp_source Prospect specific chance - source

psp_charge Prospect specific chance - charge

prospect Overall prospect specific chance

play Overall play chance

gpos Chance of geological success

epos Chance of economic success

Codes For Chance Elements


There a several different risking schemes and the chance elements in each category (usually presence,

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effectiveness, etc.) may have different names in different schemes. Therefore, the column name is the code
and the row name is 1, 2, 3... according to how many elements there are.

Code Chance

pl_res Play chance - reservoir

pl_sou Play chance - source

pl_sea Play chance - seal

psp_res Prospect specific chance - reservoir

psp_sea Prospect specific chance - seal

psp_trp Prospect specific chance - trap

psp_sou Prospect specific chance - source

psp_mig Prospect specific chance - charge

amp_modifier Amplitude modifier

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Index 409

Index -R-
Resources 372

-C-
Consolidations 201 -S-
Custom Help Files 351 Set-up & Defaults 339

-D- -U-
Data Dictionary 396 Understanding the Results 161
Data Export Template 383 User Options 339

-E-
Exporting Data to XL Spreadsheets 377

-F-
File Database Administration 385
Fluid Correlations 326

-G-
Glossary of Terms 394

-I-
Installation 376
Installation Options 346

-L-
Licencing 352

-P-
Printing 372
Probability Distributions 136
Prospects/Field 13

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Endnotes 2... (after index)

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