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    Transportation Planning: By: Dr. Seyed Mohammadreza Ghadiri

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    Okay, here are the steps: 1. The utility functions are: Uauto = 0 + (-0.015)*30 + 0 + 0 + (-0.002)*$5 = -0.45 Utransit = 0 + (-0.015)*45 + (-0.025)*15 + 0 + (-0.002)*$3 = -0.78 2. The probabilities are: Pauto = e^-0.45 / (e^-0.45 + e^-0.78) = 0.62 Ptransit = e^-0.78 / (e^-0.45 + e^-0.78) = 0.38 3. Therefore, the estimated percent

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    Transportation Planning: By: Dr. Seyed Mohammadreza Ghadiri

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    34 views26 pages
    Okay, here are the steps: 1. The utility functions are: Uauto = 0 + (-0.015)*30 + 0 + 0 + (-0.002)*$5 = -0.45 Utransit = 0 + (-0.015)*45 + (-0.025)*15 + 0 + (-0.002)*$3 = -0.78 2. The probabilities are: Pauto = e^-0.45 / (e^-0.45 + e^-0.78) = 0.62 Ptransit = e^-0.78 / (e^-0.45 + e^-0.78) = 0.38 3. Therefore, the estimated percent

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    Okay, here are the steps: 1. The utility functions are: Uauto = 0 + (-0.015)*30 + 0 + 0 + (-0.002)*$5 = -0.45 Utransit = 0 + (-0.015)*45 + (-0.025)*15 + 0 + (-0.002)*$3 = -0.78 2. The probabilities are: Pauto = e^-0.45 / (e^-0.45 + e^-0.78) = 0.62 Ptransit = e^-0.78 / (e^-0.45 + e^-0.78) = 0.38 3. Therefore, the estimated percent

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    34 views26 pages

    Transportation Planning: By: Dr. Seyed Mohammadreza Ghadiri

    Uploaded by

    ---
    Okay, here are the steps: 1. The utility functions are: Uauto = 0 + (-0.015)*30 + 0 + 0 + (-0.002)*$5 = -0.45 Utransit = 0 + (-0.015)*45 + (-0.025)*15 + 0 + (-0.002)*$3 = -0.78 2. The probabilities are: Pauto = e^-0.45 / (e^-0.45 + e^-0.78) = 0.62 Ptransit = e^-0.78 / (e^-0.45 + e^-0.78) = 0.38 3. Therefore, the estimated percent

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    of 26

    Transportation Planning

    (BTL2034)

    By: Dr. Seyed Mohammadreza Ghadiri , April 2021


    Trip Interchange Model
    ❑ The trip interchange model considers system level of service
    variables:
    ▪ In-vehicle travel time
    ▪ Excess (i.e., walking and waiting) time
    ▪ Travel costs
    ▪ Economic status of trip makers
    Trip Interchange Model
    Note the inverse relationship;
    I transit is numerator to determine
    proportion of auto travel
    Trip Interchange Model Example
    ❑ Suppose the data shown in table 12.21 show travel data between a
    suburban zone S and a downtown zone D. The exponent value for the
    impedance factors is 2.0 and the median income is $24,000.
    Determine the expected percentage of auto and transit trips.
    Trip Interchange Model Example
    Trip Interchange Model Example

    ▪ Therefore, 58.3 percent of travel between the zones S and D is


    expected to be via transit.
    Quiz!

    Consider Air transportation between Boston and New


    York. What are the level-of-service variables that you
    would consider to be important? What measures you use
    in evaluating this service?
    ▪ Travel time
    ▪ Type of Aircraft
    ▪ Frequency of flights (average waiting time..?!)
    ▪ Access time
    ▪ Fare
    ▪ Comfort
    Level of service variable

    Level –of-service variables and units

    Variables Units
    Travel time tt Minutes
    Access time ta Minutes
    Waiting time tw Minutes
    Fare F $
    Comfort H “Hugs”
    Level of service variable

    You have several variables and units. We need to measure the


    level of service in unidirectional way. We need a way of
    collapsing these variables into a single variable.

    ❑ So, we define a measure called “utils” for “utility”. We


    can convert all those level of service variables measured in
    different units, to utils.
    Level of service variable

    Let’s define a variable U, which is the utility of a travelers’


    choice in utils: (in some references it is called V instead)

    U = a0 + a1 tt + a2 ta + a3 tw + a4 F + a5 H

    ❑ Coefficient a1, …, a5 help to convert all the units to utils. a0 is in


    utils, and it is a constant that use to calibrate the utility equation.

    ❑ Coefficients can be negative or positive.


    Mode Choice & Utility

    Suppose we have three possible modes of travel from Boston to


    New York – air, train, auto- and you could measure each of the
    level-of-service variables for each mode. We could compute the
    utility of each mode,

    Uair , Utrain , Uauto


    The mode with highest utility
    is one you would choose!
    Mode Choice & Utility

    Much modern in utility theory uses a probabilistic approach. For


    example, the probability a traveler selects the air mode is as
    follows:

    𝑈𝑎𝑖𝑟
    Pair = 𝑈𝑎𝑖𝑟+𝑈𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛+𝑈𝑎𝑢𝑡𝑜

    𝑒 𝑈𝑎𝑖𝑟
    Pair = 𝑒 𝑈𝑎𝑖𝑟 + 𝑒 𝑈𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 + 𝑒 𝑈𝑎𝑢𝑡𝑜
    • The probabilistic approach is intended to reflect the fact that people have
    different utilities, and perhaps we have not captured all LOS variables in our
    formulation.
    Mode Choice & Utility

    ❑ Mode Choice Models are used to try to predict travelers mode choice
    ❑ Contemporary models are based on using UTILITY or DISUTILITY
    functions

    ❑ These functions are meant to express the level of satisfaction (for


    utility functions) or dissatisfaction (for disutility functions) with a
    given mode

    ❑ Once the utility function is calculated for each mode, the probability
    that a given mode will be chosen can then be calculated
    Mode Choice & Utility

    Some of factors the can affect mode choice include:

    1. Type and purpose of trip


    2. Car ownership status
    3. Cost (mostly out of pocket cost)
    4. Door-to-door travel time
    5. Convenience/service/comfort
    6. Prestige
    7. Availability
    8. Accessibility of mode
    9. Land use characteristics of start and end point

    ❑ Obviously, not all of these factors can be effectively incorporated into


    a quantitative model of mode choice. We need to be cognizant of
    those factors that are important in influencing choice but are not fully
    accounted for in mode choice models.
    Utility function

    In general a utility function takes the following form:

    uk = ak + a1 X1 + a2 X2 + ….. ar Xr + ε0

    Where

    uk – utility function for mode k


    ak – modal constant
    Xr – variables measuring modal attributes such as cost or time of travel
    ar – coefficient associated with each attribute
    ε0 – error term
    Logit Models
    ❑ The logit model considers the relative utility of each mode based on
    various modal attributes.

    where
    Logit Models
    ❑ The choice of a mode is expressed as a probability distribution.
    ❑ If auto (A) and Transit (T) modes are being considered, the
    probability of selecting the auto mode A can be written as:
    Mode Choice & Utility

    If utility function, uk, is assumed to be a Weibull Probability


    Distribution then the Multinomial Logit Model is used to calculate
    the probability that a traveler will choose a given mode.

    Multinomial Logit Model:

    p(k) = e uk /Σ e ux

    Hint:
    The Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution named after Swedish
    mathematician Waloddi Weibull. He originally proposed the distribution as a model for
    material breaking strength, but recognized the potential of the distribution in his 1951 paper A
    Statistical Distribution Function of Wide Applicability. Today, it’s commonly used to assess
    product reliability, analyze life data and model failure times. The Weibull can also fit a wide
    range of data from many other fields, including: biology, economics, engineering sciences, and
    hydrology (Rinne, 2008).

    https://www.statisticshowto.com/weibull-distribution/

    PDF: Probability density function


    Mode Choice & Utility
    The number e is an important mathematical constant that is the base of
    the natural logarithm. It is approximately equal to 2.71828, and is the
    limit of (1 + 1/n)n as n approaches infinity. It can also be calculated as the
    sum of the infinite series.

    The natural log at (x-axis) e, ln(e), is equal to 1

    e = 2.7182818284 5904523536 0287471352 6624977572 4709369995


    9574966967 6277240766 3035354759 4571382178 5251664274 ...
    Mode Choice & Utility

    Example: The mode available between Zone I and J are:


    (i) Passenger car (PC), (ii) Bus
    Find the market share for each mode given the attribute table for
    the modes.

    o Suppose the utility function is as following:


    uk = ak – 0.025 X1 – 0.032 X2 – 0.015 X3– 0.002 X4

    Where
    x1 – access plus egress time (min)
    x2 – waiting time (min)
    x3 – line haul time (min)
    x4 – out of pocket cost (cents)
    ε0 – error term
    Mode Choice & Utility

    The attribute table for each mode is given below:

    x1 x2 x3 x4
    PC 5 0 20 100 aPC = +0.00
    Bus 10 15 40 50 aBus = -0.10

    Solution:
    U(A) = -0.625
    U(B) = -1.530

    Probability of selecting PC,

    p(A) = e(-0.625) / [e(-0.625)+e(-1.530)] = 0.71


    Quiz!

    The mode available between City A and City B are: Passenger car
    (PC), Bus, Train, and Airplane. Find the market share for each
    mode given the attribute table for the modes. Suppose the utility
    function is as following:
    Uk = ak – 0.015 X1 – 0.025 X2 + 0.03 X3 – 0.002 X4 + ε0
    Where
    X1 – Travel time (min)
    X2 – waiting time (min) LOS Variables
    X3 – Comfort (Hugs)
    X4 – out of pocket cost (cents) Available Mode X1 X2 X3 X4
    ε0 – error term (Negligible) Passenger car 12 0 40 100

    aPC = 0.00 Bus 15 25 20 50


    aBus = -0.10 Train 10 15 25 40
    aTrain = -0.10 Airplane 5 30 30 150
    aAirplane = -0.01
    Logit Model Example
    ❑ Data has been obtained for travel between an additional suburban and
    downtown zone. The logit model has been developed to estimate the
    mode share between private automobile and public transit between
    these two zones:

    where
    Logit Model Example
    ❑ Travel and cost data for each mode is provided in the following table.
    Logit Model Example
    ❑ Use the logit model to determine the percent of travel in the zone by
    auto and transit.

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