Aviation connects and unites us!

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2021 - 2040

Covid in numbers – key data
An unprecedented shock

2019 2020 2021* (YoY)

5.0% -66% 18%

RPK growth RPK decrease RPK increase

2.7% -3.5% 5.6%

GDP growth GDP decrease GDP increase

+200 -2,700 +470

million passengers million passengers million passengers

82.5% 65.1% 67.1%

Record Load factor Load factor Load factor

* IATA industry statistics Fact Sheet released in Oct. 2021 (2021 vs. 2020)
Source: ICAO, IATA, IHS Markit, Airbus
Airbus expects a full recovery of air traffic between 2023 and 2025

Traffic (RPKs) base 100 compared to equivalent month in 2019

140

120

100
2019 level

80

60

40 IATA actuals

20

0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: OAG, FR24, SABRE, IATA, IHS Markit, OWID,

September 21 projection from Airbus GMF
New trends are emerging but too early to estimate traffic impact
Social and environmental considerations will play a role

Environment awareness
Corporate travel evolution (Alternative) Energy cost
and passenger behaviour

Source: Airbus GMF

Aviation economic benefits extend beyond our industry

$3.5 trillion contribution to Support tourism industry, over Connect small islands to
Carries 35% of
annual global GDP (4%) 10% of world GDP; with essential business, education
World trade in value
and 87 million jobs many small country over 25% and health services overseas

Source: ATAG, Airbus GMF 2021

GDP remains the fundamental long term driver for traffic growth

World real GDP (billion 2015 USD)

160,000 ~2 years lag
Forecast

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000
GMF 2019
20,000
GMF 2021

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF

Middle class will enlarge both in relative and absolute numbers

Middle class (millions of people) Forecast

7000
Other countries
5,760
6000 Mature countries
Emerging countries 5,000
x1.9
5000
3,810 x1.0
4000
2,970
3000
x1.6
2000
vs. 2020
1000

0
2010 2020 2030 2040

43% 49% 59% 63%

% of middle class in world population

Middle class: Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 US$
Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF
Traffic to reconnect to pre-crisis trend with 2 years shift

Annual RPK (billions)

~2 years lag
21,000

18,000

15,000

12,000

9,000

6,000

GMF 2019
3,000
GMF 2021

0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Source: IHS, Airbus GMF

Mature flows will grow by approx. 2-3% per year

Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)

Domestic PRC20
Domestic USA19 x 1.6
Intra - Western Europe18 x 1.5
Western Europe - USA 17 x 1.7
Western Europe - Middle East16
Domestic - Asia Emerging 15
14
Domestic - India
Asia Developed - Asia Emerging 13
Central Europe - Western Europe 12
11
Indian Sub-continent - Middle East
Asia Emerging – PRC 10
PRC - USA9
Asia Emerging - Middle East8
Asia Developed - USA7 x 1.6
Asia Developed - Western Europe6 x 1.6
Asia Developed – PRC5
Middle East – USA4
Western Europe - PRC3
Western Europe - South America2 x 1.8 2019 2040
Intra - Asia Developed1
0
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750

Source: Airbus GMF 2021 Annual RPK (billions)

Domestic PRC to become the largest flow. Highest growth to/ from/ within Asia

Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)

Domestic PRC20 x 3.2
Domestic USA19
Intra - Western Europe18
Western Europe - USA 17
Western Europe - Middle East16 x 2.2
Domestic - Asia Emerging 15 x 3.6
14
Domestic - India x 4.2
Asia Developed - Asia Emerging 13 x 2.4
Central Europe - Western Europe 12 x 2.8
11
Indian Sub-continent - Middle East x 3.1
Asia Emerging – PRC 10 x 3.5
PRC - USA9 x 3.8
Asia Emerging - Middle East8 x 3.1
Asia Developed - USA7
Asia Developed - Western Europe6
Asia Developed – PRC5 x 3.2
Middle East – USA4 x 2.8
Western Europe - PRC3 x 2.6
Western Europe - South America2 2019 2040
Intra - Asia Developed1 x 2.3
0
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750

Source: Airbus GMF 2021 Annual RPK (billions)

Strong industry track record on productivity improvement

Daily
utilisation
1999
2019
8.5
10.6
+2
hours/day
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Average
seats per
1999
2019
161
179
+18
seats/flight
RPK (m) 1999 300m
+45%
flight per a/c 2019 435m
0 50 100 150 200
0 100 200 300 400

Load
factor
1999
2019
69.8%
82.5%
+13pp
0% 50% 100%

Source: IATA, ICAO, Cirium, OAG, Airbus

Generating considerably lower emissions per Revenue Passenger Kilometre

CO2 emissions per RPK (grams)

200
-53%
160

120

80

40

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source: IATA, ICAO, EDGAR CO2 emissions, Airbus

Only 13% of 2019 fleet in service were new generation aircraft

Number of passenger aircraft in service*

50,000
1st generation** aircraft
History Outlook (e.g. 727)
45,000

40,000
2nd generation** aircraft
35,000 (e.g. MD80)

30,000
13% Previous generation** aircraft
25,000 (e.g. A320ceo)

20,000
1st + 2nd + previous generation**
15,000 aircraft

10,000
New generation** aircraft
5,000 (e.g. A320neo; A350…)

-
2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: Cirium, Airbus

* Western built passenger aircraft above 100 seats – pax aircraft only / **1st generation: A300, DC 9, DC10, 707, 727, 737, 747 / 2nd generation: A310, MD11, MD80, MD90,737, 747, 757, 767, F100
Previous generation: A320 Fam., A330, A340, 717,737NG, 747, 777 / New generation: A220, A320neo Fam., A330neo, A350, A380, 737Max, 777X, 787 & new programs
Demand for some 39,000 aircraft over the next 20 years

Fleet in service (thousands)

50 46,720 New deliveries
45

40

35 Grow
23,770
(60% of deliveries)
30
39,020
25 22,950

20
Replace
15 15,250
(40% of deliveries)
10

5 Stay
7,700
(34% of 2020 fleet)
0
Beginning 2020 2040 2021-2040 New Deliveries

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats) & Freight (>10t) | Rounded figures to nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2021
Out of the 2021-2040 demand, 76% is for small aircraft category

SMALL MEDIUM LARGE

29,690 aircraft 5,340 aircraft 3,990 aircraft

76% share of total new del. 14% share of total new del. 10% share of total new del

Jet Passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons

Source: Airbus Market Forecasts
Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t
2019-2040 fleet in service

3,810
PRC, x2.9
10,900 x 2.9

3,960
Asia-Pacific ex. PRC
9,730 x 2.5

5,700
North America
8,490 x 1.5

4,950
Europe
8,390 x 1.7

1,300
Middle East
3,210 x 2.5

1,440
Latin America
2,820 x 2.0

1,110
CIS
1,740 x 1.6

680 2019 2040

Africa
1,440 x 2.1

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Jet passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons Aircraft in service
Source: Airbus Market Forecasts
Large aircraft demand more concentrated in Middle-East and Asia

660
590
740
1,080
North CIS 120
America 520 160
6,960 Middle East 8,220
1,440
850
1,160
5,220
6,420 1,010 6,890
3,020 PRC
Europe 1,570

5,050
440 900

90
Africa 150
1,730
CATEGORY
1,100
Asia/Pacific
Small
190
100 860 9,400
Medium
Large 2,460 6,770
Centre Number of aircraft Latin
figure America 2,170

Jet passenger aircraft >=100 seats and Freighter >=10 tons

Source: Airbus Market Forecasts
Strong cargo forecast driven by trade and e-commerce

World international trade World air cargo traffic

(trillion 2015 $US)
45
Forecast 17%
40 General Cargo
35 2019 2019-2040 CAGR +2.7%
215 billion
30 FTK Express

25 2019-2040 CAGR +4.7%

83%
20

15

10 23%
2004 2010 2016 2022 2028 2034 2040
2040
410 billion
World GDP World international trade FTK

4.2% 77%
3.0% 2.5% 2.7%

CAGR 2004-2019 CAGR 2019-2040

Source: IATA, Seabury, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF

The freighter fleet will reach almost 3,000 aircraft by 2040

Freighter fleet in service

evolution
2,980 Demand
3,000

880 new
2,500 950 Grow
built
2,030
2,000

2,440
1,500
1560
1,490 Replace
converted
1,000

500

540 Stay
0
Beginning 2020 2040 Demand

Note: Jet freighter aircraft, payload > 10ton

Source: Airbus GMF21
World demand for ~2,440 freighter aircraft 2021-2040

Small (10t - 40t) Mid-size (40t - 80t) Large (> 80t)

1,000 small 900 mid size 540 large

freighters freighters freighters

Note: Jet freighter aircraft, payload > 10ton

Source: Airbus GMF
39,000 deliveries
New gen aircraft with 25% lower carbon footprint

SMALL MEDIUM LARGE

Summary

 Traffic recovery under way

 Fundamental drivers of passenger demand remain

 Air traffic (RPK) forecast to grow 3.9% per annum

 39,000 new aircraft deliveries by 2040

 880 new freighters by 2040

 Replacement with latest generation is today’s most significant

lever for decarbonisation
© Copyright Airbus (2021)

This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of Airbus. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery
of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the expressed
written consent of Airbus. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied.
Airbus, it’s logo and product names are registered trademarks.