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Beyond China’s
J-20 Stealth
Fighter
Is a carrierborne FC-31
in the works? And what
about Chinese 6th
generation prospects?

By Rick Joe
September 20, 2019

Credit: Chinese Internet

With the J-20 stealth fifth-generation
aircraft entering service with front line
combat units in the PLA Air Force
(PLAAF), it is likely that the initial variant
of the J-20 is approaching the completion
of its development program. This marks a
suitable time to start considering what is
known, rumored, and not known in
regard to Chinese stealth fighter initiatives
beyond the J-20.

In particular, this piece will review the

likely trajectory of the carrier based
5th generation fighter intended for the PLA
Navy (PLAN), as well as early indicators
for prospective Chinese 6th generation
fighters. Given the secretive nature of the
topic matter as well as the long timelines
involved for Chinese 6th generation
efforts, much of this piece is preliminary
and likely subject to change as new
information comes to light in coming
years.

A Carrierborne FC-31?

Rumors of a carrierborne 5th generation

fighter began to emerge not long after the
first J-20 prototype made its first flight in
early 2011. When the export oriented FC-
31 airframe then emerged in October
2012, its smaller size and more
conventional configuration and externally
more sturdy appearing landing gear
oriented speculation toward whether the
FC-31 would be developed into a
carrierborne fighter.

For a number of years, rumors suggested

 carrierborne variants of both the J-20
from Chengdu and the FC-31 from
Shenyang were engaged in a contest to be
the PLAN’s carrierborne 5th generation
fighter. The two baseline aircraft occupied
different weight categories, with the J-20
being the heavier and larger of the two,
and debates on open forums often
considered the benefits and costs of one
design over the other. In December 2016,
an improved second prototype of the FC-
31 flew with some major structural
modifications to its canopy, wings and
tails, however this second airframe did not
feature any modifications suggestive of
intended carrier compatibility

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In the last two years however, some

rumors have suggested that the PLAN has
finally settled on the FC-31 airframe as the
basis for its 5th generation carrierborne
fighter. The exact designation of this
aircraft is not known, but it has sometimes
been designated as “J-35” on Chinese
language PLA boards, though the
seriousness of the name is unknown.
Some recent articles have suggested the
PLA seeks a J-20 variant for a carrierborne
fighter variant, but to the best of this
author’s knowledge this is contrary to the
consensus of Chinese language military
watching boards.

The Role of a 5th Generation Carrier

Fighter
:
 The parameters of a carrierborne FC-31
variant/J-35 aren’t known, though some
rumors have suggested the aircraft may
have a maximum takeoff weight of about
30 tons (similar to the F-35). The aircraft
would be initially powered by two nine
ton thrust class WS-13E engines (improved
Chinese copies of RD-93), and to be later
powered by 10-11 ton thrust WS-19
engines in the late 2020s (in a thrust class
of F414 or EJ200). The use of interim
engines for the carrierborne FC-31 variant
will not be dissimilar from the J-20’s use of
interim engines prior to receiving
intended its WS-15s. However, there have
been some indications that the WS-19’s
development cycle may be slightly shorter
than the WS-15, as it may have benefited
from cross applicable research and
development originally conducted for the
WS-15.

The aircraft will almost certainly have

reinforced landing gear, folding wings and
a tailhook for carrier operations, as well as
a catapult compatible nose gear for
operations aboard the PLAN’s future
catapult carriers such as 003 and beyond.
The carrierborne 5th generation fighter is
currently projected to make its
appearance in late 2019 or early 2020 at
the earliest, however it’s not known how
long the aircraft may take to develop
before entry into service. Certain factors
may favor a longer development period
(such as it being a 5th generation
carrierborne fighter), but other factors
might compress it somewhat as well (such
:
 as Shenyang having flown two preceding
demonstrators for many years, and
possible adaptation of J-20 subsystems and
avionics in it).

Another major unknown factor is whether

additional J-15 aircraft will be produced
for Chinese aircraft carriers before the
5th generation carrier fighter enters
service (which would not be before than
the mid 2020s at the earliest). A catapult
compatible J-15 testbed has been
developed and trialed, and an electronic
warfare ski jump compatible J-15
prototype is also in testing, however at
present there are no indications that
additional J-15s have been constructed
beyond the initial 24 airframes. It goes
without saying that a modernized,
catapult compatible J-15 could act as a
stopgap for a 5th generation carrier fighter
as well as to complement it in a similar
way to how U.S. Navy Super Hornets will
complement F-35Cs. But at present there
are no indications of continued J-15
production despite testing of at least one
new advanced variant.

The World Beyond the 5th Generation

A number of nations around the world

have started programs to develop fighter
aircraft beyond what is currently known
as 5th generation fighters. These tentative
6th generation programs are currently in
their infancy and remain appropriately
secretive.

The United States is currently developing

:
 the closely guarded Penetrating Counter
Air (PCA) as part of its “Next Generation
Air Dominance” concept, with a goal of
entering service as early as 2030 for the
U.S. Air Force, as well as a U.S. Navy
project called F/A-XX intended for a
similar date into service. The Franco-
German Future Combat Air System (FCAS)
is a similar next generation fighter project
intended for entry into service by 2040.
The UK’s Project Tempest has been stated
to enter service by 2035. All of these
publicly announced projects remain
relatively early in development and have
been variously described as “next
generation” or “sixth generation” by
commentators and defense media over
time.

However, the exact subsystems and

technological advances that may prove to
be decisive in “6th generation” fighters are
unclear. Various systems have been
posited as potential advancements to
expect from next generation air combat
systems, including integration of
unmanned aircraft into manned-
unmanned teaming (MUMT), artificial
intelligence, system of systems warfighting
concepts, long range and endurance,
broadband stealth, future propulsion
systems such as variable cycle engines
(VCEs), and directed energy weapons
(DEWs).

The exact configuration of these future air

combat systems may not be known, but at
present it appears that a manned fighter
:
 aircraft will still play a central role despite
heavy hints of MUMT and system of
systems approaches. If the relationship
between 5th generation and
4.5th  generation aircraft are any guide, it
is very possible that certain future
technologies for “6th generation” aircraft
may be applied on current 5th generation
aircraft to become “5.5th generation” in
turn.

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Hints of a next generation fighter

The PLA and Chinese aerospace industry

has made impressive advances in recent
years and decades to close technological
gaps with other leading world military
powers. As nations around the world
begin to develop 6th generation fighter
aircraft and next generation air combat
systems, it is likely that China has begun to
conduct research and development along
similar lines. Assuming that China is
aiming to field their equivalent of a
6th generation fighter along a similar time
period to U.S., UK and European concepts,
pre-research would have likely begun
quite a few years ago.

Given traditional Chinese opacity towards

leading edge military advances, it was
expected that many years might pass until
official acknowledgement of a next
generation fighter project.

However in early January 2019, the

WeChat account of AVIC Times published
:
 an interview with Dr. Wang Haifeng, the
current chief designer of Chengdu
Aerospace Corporation (CAC). One section
in the interview provided some
surprisingly candid statements regarding
a next generation fighter concept.

In this section, Wang first comments on

the next generation fighter concepts that
have emerged from the U.S. and from
Europe. He then lists various technologies
that he believes will likely become
important in that generation of aircraft
such as MUMT, artificial intelligence, very
high stealth, omnidirectional sensors and
weapons, as well as other less certain
technologies such as VCEs, DEWs,
hypersonic weapons, and swarming
technology.

Astonishingly, he then states that not only

has China already been conducting pre-
research for a next generation fighter, but
also that he predicts current efforts will
progress to become weapons to “defend
the seas and skies” by 2035 or earlier.
Considering the context of the sentence
and the choice of words used – specifically
“defend the seas and skies,” as opposed to
“first appearance” or “emergence” – the
interpretation from Wang’s statement is
that he expects a next generation Chinese
fighter to be in service by 2035 or earlier.
Much uncertainty remains currently as to
what exactly a 6th generation air combat
concept may look like, however it appears
a future manned fighter may be part of it
for China.
:
 Beyond this statement, there have been
other hints that research and development
into relevant subsystems has been
ongoing. In an article from China’s Science
and Technology Awards in June 2018, Liu
Youngquan of Aero Engine Corporation of
China (AECC) stated that advancements in
developing variable cycle engines have
been made, including developing key
verification technologies and construction
of a key technology system. In fact, as
early as 2012, Zhang Jian of the preceding
AVIC Engine Company confirmed that
China was conducting research and
development into variable cycle engines.
Chinese interest in MUMT have also been
strongly suggested, with multiple
unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) programs
known to be ongoing, and a swarming
UAV concept from Zhuhai Airshow 2018
depicted a generic tailless future fighter
controlling swarms of drones.

Projecting Potential Milestone Dates

Overall, the balance of indicators strongly

suggests research and development into
6th generation fighter and air combat
concepts has been ongoing for a number
of years now, and Wang’s statement of a
next generation fighter entering service by
2035 or earlier creates a basis to estimate
when prototypes or demonstrators for
such an aircraft could be expected to
emerge.

For the sake of brevity, this notional PLA

6th generation fighter will be dubbed as
“J-X.” Note this is not an official
:
 designation or a name used in the
community.

If J-X is intended to enter service in 2035,

then going by past fighter programs it
suggests a maiden flight should occur at
least 5 years prior. Assuming an additional
2 years of development given potential
delays, a service date of 2035 implies the
prototype for this aircraft would have to
emerge by 2028 at the latest. For J-X to
enter service in 2035 would require it to
likely begin low rate production a couple
of years beforehand (again, when derived
from practice of recent projects like the J-
20). That would project initial production
of J-X to begin around 2032-33 at the latest.

Using the above hypothetical dates, some

simple arithmetic allows various
milestones to be calculated between J-X
and the previous generation J-20:

J-20 maiden flight in early 2011, 17

years before J-X’s projected maiden
flight.
J-20 initial production began in 2016,
16-17 years before J-X’s projected initial
production.
J-20 entered service in combat units in
2018, 17 years before J-X projected
service date.

Those above numbers can in turn be

compared to the time taken between J-20
to reach those milestones compared to its
previous generation J-10:

J-10 maiden flight 1998, 13 years before

:
 J-20 maiden flight.
J-10 initial production began in 2003, 13
years before J-20 initial production.
J-10 entered service in combat units
slightly after 2004, about 14 years
before J-20 entered service.

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Therefore surprisingly, in terms of the

passage of time between generations, the
projected time taken between J-X and J-20
for various important milestones would
actually be longer than intervening period
between J-20 and J-10. Additionally, even if
J-X does enter service in 2035, it is likely
that advanced J-20 and/or FC-31 variants
will still remain in production. After all,
even as J-20 has recently entered combat
service, China today continues to produce
4+ generation J-10C and J-16 fighter
aircraft in the interim.

Wang’s potential 2035 service date for the

next generation fighter is only 16 years
away when measured from the present
day in 2019. 16 years may seem quite close
and it may be difficult to envision such
major advancements occurring in such a
short space of time. However, in 2003 it
likely would have also been as difficult to
comprehend the idea of the Chinese
aerospace industry producing an aircraft
like J-20 and commissioning it in service
merely 16 years into the future. As the
years pass and enter the early 2020s, it is
likely that additional rumors and
:
 indicators will emerge for the Chinese
6th generation fighter just like it did for J-
20 (then known as “J-XX”) during the early
and mid 2000s.

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TAGS

Features Security East Asia China

6th Generation Fighter Jet Chengdu J-20

Chinese military aviation industry FC-31 stealth fighter J-20

J-X fighter prototype People's Liberation Army Air Force

People’s Liberation Army Navy PLAAF

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