Persistent KPIT - Merger Model
Persistent KPIT - Merger Model
Interest Expense 0 1 0 -
EBT 1,969 2,630 3,427 4,415 5,923
EPS
Basic 37.02 48.62 64.07 82.55 110.74
Diluted 35.45 46.90 62.32 80.29 107.71
Number of Shares
Basic 38.30 38.59 38.91 38.91 38.91
Diluted 39.99 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
1300
P/E 16.19
P/B
EV/EBITDA
2017 - E 2018 - E 2019 - E
- - -
7,685 9,748 12,241
Effective Tax Rate ( Total Provision fo 27.98% 28.66% 27.25% 27.25% 27.25% 27.25%
39,117 48,217
21,302 26,257
2,123 2,616
5,983 7,375
54% 54%
5% 5%
15% 15%
27.25% 27.25%
2,525 2,840
1,151 1,294
3,676 4,134
1,110 1,221
27% 27%
1,362 1,679
3% 3%
1,251 1,571
213 267
18% 18%
32.16 40.38
17% 17%
Year 2012 - A 2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 - E
Goodwill 23 23
Tangible Assets 2,475 2,800 2,785 2,460
Intangible Assets 722 702 1,269 1,121
CWIP 511 1,174 307 307
Intangible Assets under development 17 -
Non Current Investments 123 173 823 823
DTA 107 190 260 260
Long term loans and advances 231 198 138 138
Other non current assets 43 524 459 459
Total Long term Assets 4,228 5,761 6,065 5,593
Checksum (A = L + E) - - - -
23 23 23 23
2,325 2,352 2,525 2,840
1,060 1,072 1,151 1,294
307 307 307 307
- - - -
823 823 823 823
260 260 260 260
138 138 138 138
459 459 459 459
5,396 5,435 5,687 6,145
- - - -
- - -
(986) (1,251) (1,571)
(168) (213) (267)
(1,154) (1,464) (1,838)
Employee Details
Technical 6,223 6,540 7,349 8,239 9,218
Sales & Business Development 95 99 150
Others 310 331 358
Total 6,628 6,970 7,857 8,833 9,906
Employee Addition
Technical Emplyees 317 809 890 979
Total Employees 10% 342 887 976 1,073
Technical addition as % Total Addition 92.7% 91.2% 91.2% 91.2%
Effort
Billable Person Months 57,447 55,541 62,091 69,610 77,880
Onsite 3,718 4,585 5,140 5,751
Offshore 51,823 57,506 64,469 72,129
Number of Employees
Billable (avg) 4,787 4,628 5,174 5,801 6,490
Billed (avg) 3,435 3,431 3,669 4,116 4,605
IP (avg) 511 748 762 855 956
Total (avg) 5,299 5,376 5,937 6,655 7,446
Total Development Employees 85% 82% 81% 80.78% 80.78%
Diluted Shares 40 40 40 40 40
Projection Year 1 2 3 4
Present Value of FCF 2,531 2,855 2,872 3,194
TV = FCFF(TY)/(WACC - g)
Terminal
iod First Stage of Valuation
Year
2019 - E 2020 - E 2021 - E 2022 - E 2023 - E 2024 - E 2025 - E
40 40 40 40 40 40 40
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
3,285 3,640 3,761 3,761 3,642 3,418 3,107 <==
Intrinsic Value
65,747 <== as of todaEquity Value 66,671
32 Diluted Shares 40
957
(925) Intrinsic Value 1,667
66,671
5.5% 6.0%
0 0 0
30%
25%
20%
15%
Row 38
10%
5%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Persistent Systems
Public Comps Data
(All data is Millions INR, except per share information)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for actual data, Black for calculations)
Particulars MindTree
Balance Sheet Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11
Sources Of Funds
Total Share Capital 417 415 405 400
Equity Share Capital 417 415 405 400
Share Application Money - - - -
Preference Share Capital - - - -
Init. Contribution Settler - - - -
Preference Share Application Money - - - -
Employee Stock Opiton - - - -
Reserves 15,992 12,722 9,171 7,364
Revaluation Reserves - - - -
Networth 16,409 13,137 9,576 7,764
Secured Loans - 217 407 -
Unsecured Loans 27 32 37 46
Total Debt 27 249 444 46
Minority Interest - - - -
Policy Holders Funds - - - -
Group Share in Joint Venture - - - -
Total Liabilities 16,436 13,386 10,020 7,810
Application Of Funds
Gross Block 7,057 6,368 5,796 5,624
Less: Accum. Depreciation 3,621 3,779 3,205 2,618
Net Block 3,436 2,589 2,591 3,006
Capital Work in Progress 496 571 199 28
Investments 5,349 4,271 3,105 1,135
Inventories - - - -
Sundry Debtors 6,004 4,508 4,078 2,825
Cash and Bank Balance 1,175 1,238 583 363
Total Current Assets 7,179 5,746 4,661 3,188
Loans and Advances 4,537 3,733 2,794 2,722
Fixed Deposits - - 2 77
Total CA, Loans & Advances 11,716 9,479 7,457 5,987
Deffered Credit - - - -
Current Liabilities 2,948 2,412 2,608 1,816
Provisions 1,613 1,112 724 530
Total CL & Provisions 4,561 3,524 3,332 2,346
Net Current Assets 7,155 5,955 4,125 3,641
Minority Interest - - - -
Group Share in Joint Venture - - - -
Miscellaneous Expenses - - - -
Total Assets 16,436 13,386 10,020 7,810
Contingent Liabilities 7,353 5,172 1,113 378
Book Value (Rs) 394 316 236 194
P&L Statement Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11
Income
Sales Turnover 41,229 35,642 30,316 23,618 19,152 15,090
Excise Duty - - - -
Net Sales 41,229 35,642 30,316 23,618 19,152 15,090
Other Income 494 350 347 457
Stock Adjustments - - - -
Total Income 41,229 35,642 30,810 23,968 19,499 15,547
Expenditure - - - - - -
Raw Materials - - - - - -
Power & Fuel Cost - - - - - -
Employee Cost 23,846 20,615 17,820 14,274 12,261 9,853
Other Manufacturing Expe 2,268 1,960 - - 1,018 908
Selling and Admin Expense - - - - 1,726 1,737
Miscellaneous Expenses 6,184 5,346 6,390 4,824 1,214 743
Preoperative Exp Capitalis - - - - - -
Total Expenses 32,298 27,921 24,210 19,098 16,219 13,241
Operating Profit 8,931 7,721 6,106 4,520 2,933 1,849
PBDIT 8,931 7,721 6,600 4,870 3,280 2,306
Interest 5 5 4 10 5 72
PBDT 8,926 7,716 6,596 4,860 3,275 2,234
Depreciation 1,083 936 809 624 695 712
Other Written Off - - - - - -
Profit Before Tax 7,843 6,780 5,787 4,236 2,580 1,522
Extra-ordinary items - - - - 37 4
Profit Before Tax 7,843 6,780 5,787 4,236 2,617 1,526
Tax 1,706 1,475 1,275 847 430 295
Reported Net Profit 6,137 5,305 4,512 3,389 2,187 1,231
Minority Interest - - - - - -
Share Of P/L Of Associates - - - - - -
Net Income 5,998 5,191 3,393 3,393 3,393 3,393
Total Value Addition 24,210 19,098 16,219 13,241
Preference Dividend - - - -
Equity Dividend 1,200 779 1,041 497 162 100
DDT 204 132 180 81 26 17
Per share data
Shares in issue (lakhs) 417 417 417 415 405 400
Earning Per Share (Rs) 144 125 108 82 54 31
Equity Dividend (%) 250 120 40 25
Book Value (Rs) 394 316 236 194
Multiples Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11
EBITDA 8,931 7,721 6600 4870 3280 2306
EBIT 7,848 6,785 5791 4246 2585 1594
Shares(In Lacs) 417 417 417 415 405 400
Share Price 1148.6 1148.6 1148.6 1148.6 1148.6 1148.6
Equity Value 47,885 47,885 47,885 47,707 46,569 45,984
Enterprise Value 47,885 47,885 46,737 46,718 46,430 45,667
EPS 147.20 127.25 108.23 81.59 53.94 30.75
P/E Multiple 7.80 9.03 10.61 14.08 21.29 37.36
Beta 0.95
Hexaware
Mar '10 Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13
Mar '10 Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13
Mar '10 Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13
3109.6 5,703 5,082 5183 4365.4
2499 5,237 4,667 4797 4041.3
395 2,999 2,999 2,999 29,655
1148.6 176.35 176.35 176.35 176.35
45,387 52,883 52,883 52,883 522,957
45,249 52,883 52,883 49,873 520,988
52.66 13.41 11.95 12.64 1.10
21.81 13.15 14.76 13.95 159.61
1.1
exaware Mpha
Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10 Mar '16 Mar '15
Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10 Mar '16 Mar '15
Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10 Mar '16 Mar '15
3354.8 1443.5 1742.5 12,655 11,866
3107.8 1201.2 1471.6 11,396 10,686
29,336 14,520 14,365 2,101 2,101
176.35 176.35 176.35 451 451
517,337 256,062 253,329 94,771 94,771
516,811 255,843 253,098 94,771 94,771
0.91 0.74 0.93 38.75 36.34
193.74 238.00 188.80 11.64 12.41
Mphasis
Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10
Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10
Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10
4833.3 11730.5 12169.5 11655.2 13743.7
4329.4 10282.2 10425.8 10103.6 12105.9
2,101 2,101 2,101 2,100 2,099
451 451 451 451 451
94,771 94,767 94,758 94,726 94,682
94,502 93,950 93,324 95,551 94,081
14.40 35.40 37.71 39.13 51.96
31.31 12.74 11.96 11.53 8.68
0.86
Cyient
Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10
Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10
Mar '16 Mar '15 Mar '14 Mar '13 Mar '12 Mar '11 Mar '10
7,589 6,686 3967.4 3196.3 3023.8 1670 1960
6,097 5,371 3318.7 2633.1 2612.2 1294.5 1552.9
1,120 1,120 1,120 1,116 1,114 1,113 555
461 461 461 461 461 461 461
51,614 51,614 51,614 51,448 51,365 51,300 25,586
51,614 51,614 47,365 47,539 48,426 50,818 25,111
38.65 34.05 22.77 16.68 17.60 10.39 23.66
11.93 13.54 20.25 27.64 26.19 44.37 19.49
0.91
100%
0%
0%
0%
46%
25%
0%
0%
0%
71%
29%
29%
0%
29%
5%
0%
24%
0%
24%
7%
17%
0%
0%
17%
Persistent Systems
Relative Valuation
(All data is Millions INR, except per share information)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for actual data, Black for calculations)
Operating Metri
Multiple
25th 75th
Minimum Pecentile Median Pecentile Maximum
Methodology Name Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple
Precedent Transactions:
TTM TEV / Revenue: 0.9 x 1.3 x 1.5 x 2.0 x 3.7 x
Forward Year 1 TEV / Revenue: 0.8 x 1.0 x 1.1 x 1.5 x 2.4 x
TTM TEV / EBITDA: 6.6 x 7.0 x 7.3 x 12.8 x 29.2 x
Forward Year 1 TEV / EBITDA: 5.0 x 5.1 x 5.5 x 8.6 x 16.7 x
5-9% Growth Rate, 11-15% Discount Rate 1,289 1,454 1,665 1,943 2,327
Min Point 25 Point Med Point 75 Point Max Point
20-Day Premiums:
1-Day Premiums:
Interest Expense 45 27 13 73
EBT 1,352 1,279 1,098 1,786
Interest Income 0 0 0
Other Income -574 -253 5 138
PBT 778 1,026 1,103 1,924
EPS
Basic 8.44 10.97 11.76 8.19
Diluted 8.41 10.80 11.35 8.08
Number of Shares
Basic 78 78 80 194
Diluted 78 79 83 197
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 -E 2016 -E 2017 -E 2018 -E 2019 -E
(13)
2,847 3,846 4,725 5,927 7,369 9,293 11,741
(5)
86
1,990 2,811 3,454 4,333 5,388 6,794 8,584
Preliminary Expenses - - - - - -
Checksum - - - - -0 0
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
270 270 270 270 270
- - - - -
143 143 143 143 143
17,040 21,373 26,761 33,555 42,139
- - - - -
2,928 4,195 4,631 6,399 7,491
1,956 1,956 1,956 1,956 1,956
4,884 6,150 6,587 8,355 9,446
8,339 12,114 16,814 22,741 30,216
- - - - -
0 0 0 0 0
1
472 488 638 805 1,001 1,243 1,549
142
-18
94
-
-54
(4)
-113
-81
3,284 4,333 5,363 6,732 8,371 10,536 13,290
-2
39
21
31
5
-660
-440 (2,281) (210) (2,997) (1,145) (4,218) (2,738)
(224) - - - - - -
147 972 52 1,267 436 1,768 1,091
(1,083) (1,309) (158) (1,731) (708) (2,449) (1,647)
2,201 3,025 5,205 5,001 7,662 8,087 11,643
-
-998 -1,034 -1,270 -1,594 -1,982 -2,499 -3,157
1,203 1,991 3,934 3,407 5,681 5,588 8,486
-701 (915) (1,111) (1,363) (1,689) (2,111) (2,658)
3
-1,113
-1,672 - - - - - -
81
-8
18
54
(142)
(24)
-3,503 -915 -1,111 -1,363 -1,689 -2,111 -2,658
(44)
(1) - - - - -
279
- - (1,753) - - - -
-145
(128)
4
426 -377 1,063 2,044 3,992 3,477 5,828
28 28 28 28 28 28 28
0 - - - - - -
KPIT cummins
Revenue Metrics
(All data is Millions INR, except per share information)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for actual data, Black for calculations)
Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
Year 2009 - A 2010 - A 2011 - A 2012 -A
Hours Billed
Onsite 1186944 1081344 1201728 1573440
Offshore 5546112 5647488 6830208 8380416
Effective Tax Rate (Total Provision for Tax/EBT-Be 15% 16% 14% 22%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
2013 - A 2014 - A 2015 -E 2016 -E 2017 -E 2018 -E 2019 -E
8 8 8 8 8 8 8
22 22 22 22 22 22 22
45 45 45 45 45 45 45
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Debt Schedule
Secured Loans 1,185 1,108 1,105 669 1,459 7
Unsecured Loans - - - - - -
Short Term Borrowing - - - 1,470 1,753 1,753
Other Debt - - - - - -
Total Debt 1,185 1,108 1,105 2,139 3,213 1,761
Repayment Schedule
Secured Loans 1 1,452
Unsecured Loans 2 -
Short Term Borrowing 3 -
Other Debt -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
7 - - - -
- - - - -
1,753 - - - -
- - - - -
117 - - - -
7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Utilization
% points inc in Utilization 0% 5% 5% 5%
Utilization 71% 75% 75% 75%
Billed 4,116 4,836 5,401 6,022
Billable 5,801 6,490 7,248 8,082
IP 855 956 1,068 1,191
Billed Employees
Onsite (PPM) 4,462 5,241 5,854 6,527
Offshore (PPM) 44,935 52,788 58,954 65,737
IP (PPM) 10,256 11,474 12,815 14,289
Revenue Mix
Onsite Revenue 4,237 5,383 6,502 7,841
Offshore Reve 12,727 16,641 20,684 25,671
IP 3,749 4,668 5,803 7,202
Total Revenue 20,713 26,692 32,989 40,713
Expenses as % of Revenue
Employee benefit Exp. 54% 54% 54% 54%
Cost of Technical Prof. 5% 5% 5% 5%
Other Exp. 15% 10% 10% 10%
48,217
5%
75%
6,706
8,999
1,326
7,268
73,199
15,911
9,442
31,814
8,925
50,181
1,965
20%
393
48,217
26,257
2,616
4,965
33,838
54%
5%
10%
5%
2,411
Merged Entity
Merger Model
(All data is Millions INR, except per share information)
(Red for assumptions, Blue for actual data, Black for calculations)
Select Scenario: 1
Selected
Scenario
Scenario: 1
Per-Share Purchase Price: 1,350
Equity Purchase Price: 53,999
Implied Premium: 2.8%
Revenue Synergy %: 5.0%
Expense Synergy %: 5.0%
Financing Fees: 217
Transaction Fees: 81
Funds Required: 54,216
% Cash: 0.0%
% Stock: 60.0%
% Debt: 40.0%
% Term Loan: 50.0%
Cash Used: -
Stock Used: 32,530
Common Shares Issued: 201
Debt, Term Loan: 10,843
Debt, High-Yield: 10,843
Foregone Cash Interest Rate: 5.0%
Term Loan Interest Rate: 10%
High-Yield Debt Interest Rate: 12.0%
Sources:
Buyer Cash: -
Buyer Stock Issuance: 32,530
Term Loan: 10,843
High-Yield Debt: 10,843
Excess Cash: 81
Total Sources: 54,297
Seller Income Statement - Summary - Persitent Technologies - Based on Buyer Fiscal Years
Mar-13 Mar-14
2013 - A 2014 - A
Acquisition Effects:
Foregone Interest on Cash:
New Interest Expense:
New Amortization Expense:
Financing Fees Amortization:
Pre-Tax Income:
Book Taxes
Net Income
Diluted Shares Outstanding:
Shares Issued in Transaction:
Total New Shares Outstanding:
EPS
EPS - Buyer Standalone
EPS Accretion / Dilution
Sensitivity Analysis - Pro-Forma Year 1 EPS Accretion/Dilution and Purchase Price vs. Cash/Stock Split
$ 1,500.00
$ 1,450.00
$ 1,400.00
$ 1,350.00
$ 1,300.00
$ 1,250.00
$ 1,200.00
$ 1,150.00
Sensitivity Analysis - Pro-Forma Year 1 EPS Accretion/Dilution and Purchase Price vs. Revenue Synerg
%: Amount: Period:
Financing Fees: 1.0% 217 5
Advisory Fees: 0.1% 54 N/A
Legal & Misc. Fees: 0.1% 27 N/A
1 2 3 4 5
1,350 1,350 1,400 1,450 1,450
53,999 53,999 55,999 57,999 57,999
2.8% 2.8% 6.6% 10.4% 10.4%
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
217 - 281 350 -
81 81 81 81 81
54,216 53,999 56,281 58,349 57,999
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
60.0% 100.0% 50.0% 40.0% 100.0%
40.0% 0.0% 50.0% 60.0% 0.0%
50.0% 50.0% 30.0% 50.0% 50.0%
- - - - -
32,530 53,999 28,140 23,340 57,999
201 333 174 144 358
10,843 - 8,442 17,505 -
10,843 - 19,698 17,505 -
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Uses:
Equity Value of Company: 53,999
Transaction Fees: 81
Capitalized Financing Fees: 217
r Fiscal Years
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
2015 -E 2016 -E 2017 -E 2018 -E 2019 -E
Combined Years
2016 -E 2017 -E 2018 -E 2019 -E
-4 -4 -4 -4
-1,084 -1,084 -1,084 -1,084
-1,301 -1,301 -1,301 -1,301
(43) (43) (43) (43)
11,538 15,242 19,841 25,532