Home Search Collections Journals About Contact us My IOPscience

Water allocation for agriculture complex terrain under changing climate

This content has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down to see the full text.

2017 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 54 012030

(http://iopscience.iop.org/1755-1315/54/1/012030)

View the table of contents for this issue, or go to the journal homepage for more

Download details:

IP Address: 168.151.92.50
This content was downloaded on 12/02/2017 at 12:37

Please note that terms and conditions apply.

You may also be interested in:

100 years of California’s water rights system: patterns, trends and uncertainty
Theodore E Grantham and Joshua H Viers

Identification of severe wind conditions using a Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes solver

N N Sørensen, A Bechmann, J Johansen et al.

Wetlands under a changing climate: Live or let die?

Rudy van Diggelen, A Grootjans and W Kotowski

Global climate change and sustainable water management for energy production in the Niger Basin of
Nigeria
Attah Peter Sola and J G Adeniran

Wind Power Forecasting techniques in complex terrain: ANN vs. ANN-CFD hybrid approach
Francesco Castellani, Davide Astolfi, Matteo Mana et al.

Enhanced method for multiscale wind simulations over complex terrain for wind resource assessment
A Flores-Maradiaga, R Benoit and C Masson

The role of storage capacity in coping with intra- and inter-annual water variability in large
river basins
Franziska Gaupp, Jim Hall and Simon Dadson

Energy for water and water for energy on Maui Island, Hawaii
Emily A Grubert and Michael E Webber
 LISAT IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012030

International Conference on Recent Trends in Physics 2016 (ICRTP2016) IOP Publishing

Journal of Physics: Conference Series 755 (2016) 011001 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/755/1/011001

Water allocation for agriculture complex terrain under

changing climate

I Putu Santikayasa*, Perdinan and Rizki Abdul Basit

Department Geophysics and Meteorology, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia

E-mail: psantika@gmail.com

Abstract. The current water resources management in Indonesia requires the government to pay
more attention on sustainable water management. Agriculture as the highest water demand in the
country need better water management as the impact of future changing climate. Furthermore,
the water managers as well as policy makers may require integrating the climate change
assessment into water resources allocation policy and management. Agropolitan in Malang
district, East java – Indonesia is an agriculture which is characterized by complex agricultural
system and was assigned as a case study. The supply-demand water allocation approach was
applied on allocating water to different water users under current and future climatic condition.
Both climate and the changing nature of water demand have affected the development and
evolution of water allocation. The result shows that the water supply is expected to decrease
under future climate comparing with the current condition. Furthermore, it is required to
incorporate the future climate information on design the future water policy and management to
reduce the adverse impact of changing climate. This study also suggested policy actions as
recommendation to better manage current climate variability as well as future uncertainty from
climate change impacts on water allocation and resources management.

1. Introduction
Water resources sustainability means using the natural resource wisely and protecting the complex
ecosystems with future generations in mind. But sustainability will not be achieved with current patterns
of resource consumption and use [1]. It is therefore of paramount importance to rational planning and
decision making in equitable water management. This must be undertaken within the widely accepted
integrated approach at all levels of the society.
Population growth and the intensification of irrigation on agricultural lands have increased water
demand over the past decade. As a result, water abstraction for irrigation, livestock and domestic use
have severely stressed the water resources, particularly during dry seasons causing conflicts between
upstream and downstream water users. There is therefore a need to understand the spatial and temporal
water availability and to formulate a tool for planning and decision making in prioritisation of water
allocation in the area or basin. However, given the complexity of the system and the interactions between
water supply and demand, a large-scale water supply management tool would be useful for decision
makers when formulating water management strategies for coping with future changes in water demands
[2].
Poncokusumo is the area which developed from the agriculture area to be the agropolitan area. The
development status of the area has increasing the water demand especially for the domestic and industry.
The development of the infrastructure, to support the agropolitan area has increasing the water demand.
Furthermore, the changing climate in which is expected to decrease the precipitation increases the water

Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution
of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd 1
 LISAT IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012030

stress mostly during the dry season. Therefore, it is required to assess the impact of infrastructure
development and water demand on the water allocation in the current and future period.
To contribute towards this goal, the current study adopted and applied Water Evaluation and Planning
(WEAP) model as a decision support system (DSS) to assess water availability and investigating the
impacts of different water allocation scenarios (water demand management strategies) aimed on
assessing the impact of infrastructure development and future climatic change on water allocation in
study area.

2. Data and Methodology

2.1. Study area

Poncokusumo is located about 112.42º - 122.54º E and 8.68º - 7.58º S, eastern part of Malang District,
Java island (figure 1). The area is dominated by lowland with the altitude less than 1,000 meter above
the sea level (masl). The area is hilly area which is mountainous around the area. The precipitation is
dominated by the monsoonal pattern which is peak precipitation occurs during December to February.
The dry season occurs during the period of June to August. The climate is identified based on the
temperature and precipitation and is classified as the wet tropic based on Koppen climate classification.
The precipitation is about 2300 mm in average with the temperature is about 21.7 o C in average
annually. The 68 mm on monthly average of precipitation was observed during dry month in August
and the maximum precipitation was observed about 423 mm during December. The area was also
classified as humid area which is the relative humidity (RH) about 82%.
The Poncokusumo was selected as the study area of the impact assessment of the water resources
under changing climate. The area is about 103 km2 (3.46% from the Malang district area). The area is
grouped into three area based on the topography. The flat area covers the area of nine sub districts
namely Desa Karanganyar, Jambesari, Pajaran, Argosuko, Ngebruk, Karangnongko, Wonomulyo dan
Belung. The hillside area which are dominated by agriculture covers about eight district namely, Desa
Dawuhan, Sumberejo, Pandansari, Ngadireso, Poncokusumo, Wringinanom, Gubugklakah, dan Ngadas.
The rest area is hilly area which is elevation more than 1200 masl.

2.2. WEAP for Water Allocation

WEAP, which is an object-oriented computer modelling package is an Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM) tool designed for simulation of water resources systems and trade-off analysis.
The tool considering that water supply is defined by the amount of precipitation that falls on a watershed
or a series of watersheds, with the supply progressively becoming depleted through natural watershed
processes, human demands and interventions, or enhanced through watershed accretions. These
processes are governed by a water balance model concept that defines watershed scale evaporative
demands, rainfall–runoff processes, groundwater recharge, and irrigation demands [3][4].
The model simulates water system operations within a river system with basic principles of water
accounting on a user-defined time step, usually a month. Simulation allows the prediction and evaluation
of “what if” scenarios and water policies such as water conservation programs, demand projections,
hydrologic changes, new infrastructure and changes in allocations or operations [3][4][5][7]. Thus
WEAP is considered as an integrated water management tool for evaluating water use and allocation
with a greater focus on balancing supply and demand in a swift and transparent way.

2
 LISAT IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012030

Figure 1. Map of the study area

WEAP model was applied by simulating recent base year or ‘business as usual’ account, for which
water availability and demand was determined. This information was obtained from different water
users/stakeholders in the basin on year 2015 as the baseline. The application was defined by time frame,
spatial boundaries, system components and configuration of the problem. The current account, which is
the calibration step of the model, provided the actual water demand, resources and supplies for the
system. Scenarios built on the current account enabled the exploration of the impact of alternative
policies on future water availability and use. Construction of different scenarios was based on alternative
sets of policies, which were evaluated with regard to water sufficiency, costs and benefits [6]. During
this study, WEAP model was developed on the monthly time step.

2.3. Water Supply and Demand Assessment

The water availability was assessed based on the water discharge to the area. The discharge was
modelled using hydrological rainfall – runoff model HEC HMS model. HEC HMS model is a lumped
model which is simulates the hydrological processes in the area based on physical characteristic of the
catchment. The water demand consists of three group namely domestic, industry and agriculture. The
use of the water requirements of three user is based on field data indicating that the third is the dominant
users of water in the study area. Water usage of those three group based on Indonesian National Standard
(SNI) water use (SNI 19-6728.1-2002). In general SNI describe the amount of water use is approached
by the population. Estimated water use for the domestic sector is done by using the approach of the
number of people multiplied by water use national standard (SNI for domestic water demand). Uses of
water for industry use a similar approach to the calculation of water demand for the domestic sector.
The use of water for agriculture in this study is limited of water uses for irrigation. The water requirement
for agriculture in units of cubic meters per hectare, therefore, the amount mentioned previously is
multiplied by the area.

2.4. Scenario development

The scenario was developed to assess the impact of increasing water demand to the allocation as well
as the decreasing of water supply. To assess those impacts, in this study, the water demand were
simulated to increase by 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50% based on the baseline scenario. On the supply side, the
water supply were simulated to decrease by 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50% based on the baseline scenario.

3
 LISAT IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012030

3. Result and Discussion

Estimated water demand for three water users were applied on the reference scenario. The water demand
for the period of year 2010 – 2015 was used to estimate the water demand for three water users. In this
study, the only water supply is from the surface water. The estimated water demand is based on the
population and industrial group multiplied by the SNI of each water demand for domestic and industrial.
The SNI of water demand per hectare was also applied to estimate irrigation water demand for
agriculture. The total water demand was estimated by multiplying the water demand per hectare by total
irrigation area on each district.

3.1. Water Allocation: Reference Scenario

Water allocation models must able to represent the model component of water resources in the model.
The ideal water allocation model should simulate the water demand and supply. Priorities for different
water demand and supply in this study was set as similar for each water users and supply. This priorities
were able to describe the water condition in the field which is all of the water user has similar priorities
to be fulfilled.
In this study, the water supply in the region comes from two main rivers. The water sources are Lesti
and Amprong River. Lesti River located in the southern region of the area while Amprong River located
on the northern region. The study on water availability approximated by calculating the value of the
discharge of the two major river is. Based on the water supply analysis output, the availability of water
in the area Poncokusumo is shown in figure 2.
60 6
Millions

Millions

50 5
40 4
30 3
20 2
10 1
0 0

Nov-15
Dec-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15
Aug-15

Oct-15
Dec-15
Nov-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15

Sep-15
Aug-15

Oct-15

Supply Amprong Supply Lesti Demand

(a) (b)
Figure 2. Graph Poncokusumo water availability in the region, based on the flow of rivers and
streams Amprong Lesti (a) and total water demand (industrial, domestic and agricultural) in the
region Poncokusumo (b).

Based on figure 2(a), the highest and lowest water availability in the area is occurred in April and
August, respectively. While compared with the precipitation, it is high confidence that the water
availability pattern follows the precipitation pattern. It shows that as the region is influenced by
monsoon, the precipitation in the area also follows monsoonal pattern. Furthermore, the changing of
precipitation pattern on each month is directly affected the pattern of the water availability.
The water demand as shown in figure 2 (b) is the amount of water is required to meet the water
requirements of domestic, industrial and agricultural. Water demands vary on each months, it is
influenced by the number of days each month. It mainly affects the amount of water demands for
domestic and industrial. Unlike the water needs for domestic and industrial, the water demands for
agriculture are influenced by cropping patterns in respective fields. As shown in figure 2 (b), the high
water demand in the dry season, it is because the water requirements of agriculture through irrigation
during the dry season is increasing, as additional water for agricultural needs of decreasing precipitation.
Based on the supply and demand (figure 2), it shows that for all water demands can be met by the
availability of water in the area.

4
 LISAT IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012030

3.2. Scenario Analysis

In this section, the scenario of the increasing water demand and decreasing water supply were assessed.
As there are unavailable data for the future water demand, the water demand was assumed to increase
about 10, 20, 30 40 or 50% based on the reference scenario. On the other hand, the supply scenario for
the future are based on the projection of future precipitation in year 2030 and decreasing precipitation
of 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50%. Future precipitation is based on two different Global Circulation Model
(GCM) namely CSIRO and MIROC.
60 60
Millions

Millions
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0

Nov-30
Dec-30
Apr-30
May-30

Jul-30
Jan-30

Jun-30

Sep-30
Feb-30
Mar-30

Oct-30
Aug-30
Nov-30
Dec-30
Jul-30
Apr-30
May-30
Jan-30

Jun-30
Feb-30
Mar-30

Sep-30
Oct-30
Aug-30

Demand Supply Amprong Supply Lesti Demand Supply Amprong Supply Lesti
(a) (b)
Figure 3. Graph projections of water availability in 2030 using the CSIRO model (a) and projected
water availability MIROC 2030 model (b) as well as the total water demand (industrial, domestic and
agricultural) in the region Poncokusumo.
60 60
Millions
Millions

50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
Apr

Aug
May

Oct
Nov
Jan

Jun
Feb
Mar

Jul

Sep

Dec

Aug

Nov
Apr

Oct
Jan
Feb
Mar

Jul

Dec
May
Jun

Sep

Demand Supply Amprong Supply Lesti Demand Supply Amprong Supply Lesti
(a) (b)
Figure 4. Water resource allocation graph sensitivity to changes in water availability reduction by 50%
from normal (a) and changes in water demand increase by 50% from normal (b).

Comparing with the reference scenario, the water availability is expected to decrease under CSIRO
and MIROM model projection (figure 3). Under CSIRO model, the precipitation is expected to have a
peak on April and December, with the lowest precipitation is expected to occur in August. However, the
decreasing water availability in the future is able to fulfil the water demand if assumed that the future
water demand are similar as the reference scenario. There are no water shortage in the area in the future.
Similarly, the MIROC model is also projecting the decreasing water availability in the future. The
model projects that the precipitation is expected to be maximum in March and December, and achieved
its minimum in September. The water availability under MIROC model is still able for fulfilling the
water demand under reference scenario. The water availability in the area of Poncokusumo come from
two sources as mentioned above, therefore, by this condition there are sufficient water for the future.
On this study, the sensitivity analysis were also assessed. The sensitivity of the decreasing water
availability and also increasing water demand. The first scenario is decreasing water availability by 10,

5
 LISAT IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 54 (2017) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012030

20, 30, 40 and 50% comparing with the references scenario. The second scenario is increasing water
demand about 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50% comparing with the water demand on references scenario. Based
on those two scenario, the water availability in the Poncokusumo is still able to fulfil water demand of
three water users; domestic, industry and agriculture. Moreover, the water is still available under dry
season in which the water availability is expected to decrease up to 50% in this study (figure 4). On this
research, all of the water availability is allocated only to those three water users. Furthermore, the
efficiency of the water distribution is not considered and all of the water needs assumed fully utilized
(100% consumed) with no backflow.

4. Conclusion and Recommendations

The water allocation is comparing the water demand and supply for certain area. Assessment of the
water allocation in the future requires the future projection for the water demand and supply and also
the allocation policy. The projection of the water supply can be expected using the precipitation
projection based on the emission scenario under GCM model. On the other hand, the projection of the
future water demand needs more parameters especially socio and economic parameters. On this research
the future water demand projection using the assumption of increasing water demand of 10, 20, 30, 40
and 50%.
The result of this study shows that the Poncokusumo area is supplied by two sources water from
Lesti and Amprong River. Those water sources is able to fulfil the water demand of domestic, industry
and agriculture in the area. The increasing water demand is still able to be fulfilled in the future by up
to 50% increasing water demand comparing to the reference period. Furthermore, it was expected that
there will no water shortage in the future for the decreasing water availability up to 50% comparing the
reference period. Furthermore, it is required to incorporate the future climate information on design the
future water policy and management to reduce the adverse impact of changing climate. It was also
suggested policy actions as recommendation to better manage current climate variability as well as
future uncertainty from climate change impacts on water allocation and resources management.

References
[1] UN 2005 The millennium development goals report 2005 (New York: USA)
[2] Chung G, Lansey K, Blowers P, Brooks P, Ela W, Stewart S, Wilson P 2008 A general water
supply planning model: evaluation of decentralized treatment Environ. Model Softw. 23 893–
905
[3] Yates D, Sieber J, Purkey D, Huber-Lee A, Galbraith H 2005 WEAP21: A demand, priority, and
preference driven water planning model: part 2, aiding freshwater ecosystem service
evaluation Water Int. 30 487–500
[4] Purkey D R, Hubber-Lee A, Yates D N, Henamann M, Herrod-Julius S 2007 Integrating a climate
change assessment tool into stakeholder-driven water management decision-making processes
in California Water Resour. Manag. 21 315–329
[5] Raskin P, Hansen E, Zhu Z 1992 Simulation of water supply and demand in the Aral Sea Region
17 55–67
[6] SEI 2008 WEAP: Water Evaluation and Planning System, tutorial (Stockholm Environment
Institute: Boston Center)
[7] Santikayasa I P, Babel M S, Shrestha S, Jourdain D, Clemente R S 2014 Evaluation of water use
sustainability under future climate and irrigation management scenarios in Citarum River
basin, Indonesia International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 21 181-
194