Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837

DOI 10.1007/s11027-017-9761-0

O R I G I N A L A RT I C L E

Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean

under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability

Žiga Malek 1 & Peter H. Verburg

1,2

Received: 21 April 2017 / Accepted: 25 August 2017 / Published online: 10 September 2017
# The Author(s) 2017. This article is an open access publication

Abstract Meeting the growing demand for food in the future will require adaptation of water
and land management to future conditions. We studied the extent of different adaptation
options to future global change in the Mediterranean region, under scenarios of water use
and availability. We focused on the most significant adaptation options for semiarid regions:
implementing irrigation, changes to cropland intensity, and diversification of cropland activ-
ities. We used Conversion of Land Use on Mondial Scale (CLUMondo), a global land system
model, to simulate future change to land use and land cover, and land management. To take
into account future global change, we followed global outlooks for future population and
climate change, and crop and livestock demand. The results indicate that the level of irrigation
efficiency improvement is an important determinant of potential changes in the intensity of
rain-fed land systems. No or low irrigation efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in
irrigated areas, accompanied with intensification and expansion of rain-fed cropping systems.
When reducing water withdrawal, total crop production in intensive rain-fed systems would
need to increase significantly: by 130% without improving the irrigation efficiency in irrigated
systems and by 53% under conditions of the highest possible efficiency improvement. In all
scenarios, traditional Mediterranean multifunctional land systems continue to play a significant
role in food production, especially in hosting livestock. Our results indicate that significant
improvements to irrigation efficiency with simultaneous increase in cropland productivity are
needed to satisfy future demands for food in the region. The approach can be transferred to
other similar regions with strong resource limitations in terms of land and water.

Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-

9761-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

* Žiga Malek
z.malek@vu.nl

1
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085,
1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
2
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research, WSL Zürcherstrasse 111,
8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
822 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837

Keywords Agricultural intensification . Global change . Irrigationefficiency . Landmanagement

. Land systems . Multifunctionality . Water resources

1 Introduction

Irrigated cropland has a significant share in the global crop production and allows human
presence and a stable crop production in areas otherwise inhabitable (Evans and Sadler 2008).
In the light of future climate and population change, more existing cropland will need to be
equipped with irrigation in order to maintain higher yields or crop production in general
(UNESCO 2006). This is expected to have substantial effects on freshwater resources. Already
today, irrigation is the largest consumer of freshwater resources and has led to unsustainable
water withdrawals in several world regions (Wisser et al. 2008). In the coming decades, more
than a half of the global population is expected to live under conditions of water scarcity
(Qadir et al. 2007). Improving the irrigation efficiency has been identified as a major strategy
to adapt to future climate and socioeconomic change globally and in major arid regions (Smit
and Skinner 2002; Fader et al. 2016).
More efficient irrigation is only one aspect of adaptation to global change (Elliott et al.
2014). Besides reducing water losses, other improvements in land management are necessary
to ensure food security and mitigate environmental impacts of agriculture (de Fraiture and
Wichelns 2010; Neumann et al. 2010; Mueller et al. 2012). Although increased productivity
would result in significantly higher crop production, it remains unclear how changes to land
management can contribute to this increase (Licker et al. 2010). Integrated approaches on
adaptation responses in land management may help target investments and estimate the
potential contributions of alternative strategies from a system-wide perspective rather than
only at the farm level (Falkenmark et al. 2014). Many studies have addressed how future
global change might result in changes to land use and land cover, and land management
(Letourneau et al. 2012; van Asselen and Verburg 2013; Eitelberg et al. 2016). While most
land change studies did account for climate change, they did not treat water as a limiting
resource and consider potential improvements to irrigation efficiency. Studies evaluating
improvements to irrigation efficiency did not investigate other simultaneous adaptation in land
management (Rost et al. 2009; Elliott et al. 2014; Fader et al. 2016). In this study, we evaluate
water and land management strategies to adapt to future global change. We focus on the
Mediterranean, a region under water stress with high requirements for irrigation (Wriedt et al.
2009; Hayashi et al. 2013).
The Mediterranean is a densely populated semiarid region, with harsh water and land
resources constraints (Giannakopoulos et al. 2009; Fader et al. 2016). While the Mediterranean
north is a significant exporter of agricultural commodities (Daccache et al. 2014), the Middle
East and North African part depends heavily on food imports (Wright and Cafiero 2011).
Fluctuations in food supply and prices are threatening food security and increasing the social
and political vulnerability in the region (Sowers et al. 2010). Projected climate changes suggest
an aridity increase and a decrease in freshwater resources, impacting future crop production
(Vörösmarty et al. 2010; Chenoweth et al. 2011; Guiot and Cramer 2016). At the same time,
the irrigation water withdrawal in the region is expected to increase (Daccache et al. 2014;
Salmoral et al. 2017). Reducing water stress and depletion of freshwater resources, while
increasing food production, have therefore been recognized as main future challenges of the
region (UNEP/MAP-Plan Bleu 2010).
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837 823

In this paper, we present a novel land system modeling application to evaluate adaptation
options using a regional, spatial perspective rather than focusing on the field or farm level. We
combine global scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change with regional irrigation
characteristics and land use configuration. Our objective is to evaluate irrigation and land
management strategies to adapt to future changes to climate and water resources in the
Mediterranean region. Particularly, we analyze how reducing water loss and irrigation water
withdrawals affects future expansion of irrigated areas, at the same time leading to changes in
land management. This way, we study the extent of changes in cropland intensity, cropland
expansion, and diversification of agricultural activities necessary to satisfy future food demand
in the Mediterranean region under different levels of achieved irrigation efficiency.

2 Methodology

2.1 The Mediterranean region

The Mediterranean region spans over southern Europe, Northern Africa, and the Middle East.
We focus on the Mediterranean ecoregion (Fig. 1), which describes the approximate original
extent of representative Mediterranean natural communities (Olson et al. 2001). It covers 2.3
million km2 in 27 countries with around 420 million inhabitants. We divided the region
thematically to the northern and the southern part with further subdivisions into two subregions
each (Fig. 1). This way, we captured regionally specific characteristics of land use and land
cover (S1), and their irrigation water withdrawal demands on a higher detail. There are
considerable differences in freshwater resources, and type of irrigation within the region,
particularly between the northern and southern part of the Mediterranean (Table 1). Overall,
irrigation amounts to 69% of total water withdrawal in the region, making it the largest water
consumer in the region (FAO 2016).

2.2 CLUMondo model

CLUMondo (Conversion of Land Use on Mondial scale) is a spatial land system change
model, where future changes to the landscape are driven by multiple demands (S2), such as

Fig. 1 The study area with four thematic subregions

824 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837

Table 1 Water resources and irrigation system characteristics. Data from UNEP/MAP-Plan Bleu (2010),
EUROSTAT (2013) and FAO (2016)

Region Water resources and irrigation withdrawal Share of irrigation

systems in %

Irrigation water as Irrigation Pressure on Reported Surface Sprinkler Drip

% of total water water freshwater overall
withdrawal withdrawal resources (%) irrigation
(km3/year) efficiency (%)

North
Western 78.9 30.1 11.8 53.7 88.0 9.2 2.8
Balkans
and
Turkey
European 39.3 48.6 10.2 65.4 42.1 29.7 24.4
Union
South
Middle 93.8 59.3 94.4 62.0 82.9 8.0 9.1
East
NW 78.2 16.7 30.2 66.2 81.7 11.7 6.6
Africa

crops, livestock, and built-up areas (van Asselen and Verburg 2013). The model goes beyond
simulating land cover changes only, as land systems combine information on land manage-
ment, fertilizer input, yield gap, and livestock numbers (Souty et al. 2012; van Asselen and
Verburg 2013). The explicit representation of land management allows accounting for change
in the intensity of production systems, for example, by improving yields or increasing
livestock density (van Asselen and Verburg 2013). This is necessary, as socioeconomic
changes often do not impact land cover directly, but result in changes in management intensity.
CLUMondo allocates changes to land systems based on local spatial preference, area
restrictions, and competition between land systems (van Asselen and Verburg 2013). We
calculated spatial preference of land systems by investigating the relationships between their
spatial occurrence (S1) and explanatory biophysical and socioeconomic variables (S3) using
logistic regression (S4). Area restrictions are spatial limitations, such as protected areas. We
used the current network of protected areas (IUCN 2015) to restrict intensification and
cropland and urban expansion in protected areas. The model satisfies the demand by promot-
ing the most competitive and productive land systems by iteratively calculating optimal land
system allocation provided the constraints and location preferences.
CLUMondo can also consider the demands of systems for specific resources, such a
freshwater. In this study, water withdrawal was constrained by applying a threshold on
maximum water withdrawal. This innovative concept has a significant effect on allocating
future land system change, as the model cannot only promote the most competitive systems in
terms of output without taking into account actual available water resources. The model has to
allocate land systems with lower output that have low or no irrigation demands. The model is
described in more detail by van Asselen and Verburg (2013) and is available at http://www.
environmentalgeography.nl/site/data-models/data/clumondo-model/.
We used the Mediterranean land systems map for the year 2010 (S1, Malek and Verburg
2017) as a starting point to simulate future land system change until 2050. Land systems were
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837 825

defined as combinations of land cover (cropland extent, tree cover density, extent of bare and
built-up areas), management (crop type, irrigation, intensity), and livestock presence on a
2 × 2 km resolution. The average output of annual and permanent crops per land system unit
was based on agricultural production statistics for 2010 (S2), and the share of crops produced
in systems with low and high intensity and in systems under irrigation (EUROSTAT 2013,
2016; You et al. 2014). We changed the output of land systems annually to account for
cropland productivity increases. The average yield for each land system was based on yield
gap data (Foley et al. 2011) and served as our reference. The irrigation demand of the different
land systems was based on the average extent of areas equipped with irrigation of each land
system (Siebert et al. 2005, 2013), and national and subnational irrigation water withdrawal
statistics (EUROSTAT 2013, 2016; FAO 2016). This way, we obtained mean values of
irrigation water withdrawal per cell of irrigated land system (S2).

2.3 Future population, climate, and food demand

Future population change (Table 2) followed the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)
scenarios SSP2 population projections, where the existing 2010 population map was updated
annually until 2050 (CIESIN 2015; Jiang and O’Neill 2017). Growth rates for urban popula-
tion were used for areas with high population density (> 250 inhabitants/km2, S5), for other
areas, we used growth rates for rural population (Jiang and O’Neill 2017).
To consider climate change, we used projections from downscaled global climate models
from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), forced by the Representative
Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) greenhouse gas radiative forcing (Hijmans et al. 2005;
Taylor et al. 2012). We calculated the mean of 19 CMIP5 simulations (S6) for temperature and
precipitation. We prepared annual temperature and precipitation maps, using 2050 values
(mean of 2041–2060). These maps were used to derive potential evapotranspiration (PET)
and aridity index (AI) maps (Trabucco et al. 2008; Zomer et al. 2008) (S7). AI was used as a
limiting factor for particular land system change processes. For example, forest expansion on
abandoned cropland was only possible in areas with AI > 0.65 (Zomer et al. 2008). Mediter-
ranean forests consist mostly of oak (Quercus sp.) and pine (Pinus sp.) forests, and although
they are used to the semiarid Mediterranean climate, they mostly occur in hilly and moun-
tainous areas with sufficient rainfall (Malek and Verburg 2017).
Future demands for annual and permanent crops, livestock, and built-up area (Table 2)
followed the SSP2 Marker scenario (Fricko et al. 2017; Riahi et al. 2017). These projections
result from global economic models that roughly account for regional production capacity,
consumption, and trade. It should be noted that these demands do not aim to fully fulfill food
requirements of the region: trade and imports are an important component and integrated in the
demands used in our study. In this study, annual crops contain major cereals like wheat

Table 2 Changes to population, climate, and food production demands in the Mediterranean for the scenario up
to 2050 based on the SSP2 Marker scenario

North South

Population and built-up areas + 19.5% + 47.4%

Climate change RCP4.5 (S2) RCP4.5 (S2)
Annual and permanent crops + 18.1% + 40.2%
Livestock + 25.8% + 23.8%
826 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837

(Triticum aestivum), barley (Hordeum vulgare), maize (Zea mays), and rice (Oryza sativa),
together with vegetables including tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum) and potatoes (Solanum
tuberosum). Permanent crops contain fruit such as apples (Malus sp.), pears (Pyrus sp.),
peaches (Prunus persica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), citrus (Citrus sp.), olives (Olea europaea),
and dates (Phoenix dactylifera). Livestock numbers consist only of ruminant species: cattle
(Bos taurus), goats (Capra aegagrus), and sheep (Ovis aries). The production of annual and
permanent crops is based on food production projections in the SSP2 Marker scenario and
livestock production on projected livestock numbers (IIASA 2016; Riahi et al. 2017). The
demand for built-up areas is linked to population change (Kc and Lutz 2017; IIASA 2016).
Technical details of translating the demands from global projections to the CLUMondo land
system model are described in S8.

2.4 Irrigation efficiency and water withdrawal scenarios

Defining the reference situation of irrigation efficiency remains a challenge due to different
definitions (Jensen 2007; Evans and Sadler 2008; Jägermeyr et al. 2015). When describing the
efficiency of irrigation regimes, the term field application efficiency is normally used. It
describes the share of water that reaches the field and is relatively high in the Mediterranean
region (Lankford 2006; Evans and Sadler 2008). Other losses are associated with water
transport from the source to the field and are defined as conveyance efficiency (Evans and
Sadler 2008; Jägermeyr et al. 2015). Most water losses in the Mediterranean region are related
to the conveyance efficiency, i.e., due to inefficient transport infrastructure (Sowers et al.
2010).
In this study, we focused on overall irrigation efficiency. It describes the share of water used
efficiently and the share that is lost from the total water extracted from the source of supply on
a larger, national scale (UNEP/MAP-Plan Bleu 2010; FAO 2016). The overall efficiency of a
scenario was calculated as a product of field application efficiency and conveyance efficiency,
using the efficiencies proposed by Fader et al. (2016). Reported overall irrigation efficiencies
were used as our reference scenario (FAO 2016), to consider existing cumulative regional
water loss (Table 1).
We added two scenarios with higher overall irrigation efficiencies, based on literature and
reported efficiencies (UNEP/MAP-Plan Bleu 2010; Jägermeyr et al. 2015; FAO 2016).
Governments in the region have made significant effort in the past years to replace surface
irrigation systems with more efficient sprinkler or drip irrigation systems, which influenced our
scenario assumptions (Wriedt et al. 2009; Daccache et al. 2014). In the Bsprinkler^ and Bdrip^
scenario, overall irrigation efficiency is assumed to reach the level reported for the respective
system (Table 3). We ran an additional Bdeficit irrigation^ scenario (Table 3), where crops are
allowed to experience mild water stress with marginal decreases in yield and quality (Costa
et al. 2007; Wriedt et al. 2009). Regulated deficit irrigation has been identified as a comple-
mentary approach to increase water savings (Geerts and Raes 2009). It represents a low-cost
scenario, where no significant improvements to irrigation infrastructure are needed.
To simulate the scenarios, we changed the water demand of irrigated land systems for the
two irrigation efficiency scenarios (S2). For the deficit irrigation scenario, we decreased the
water demand for the irrigated land systems, while reducing their total output for crops
(Table 3). All scenarios had the same improvement in crop efficiency, resulting in reduced
yield gaps. We increased the yield of rain-fed intensive cropland systems to 75% of the
potential yield and to 90% for irrigated cropland. The values are based on plausible
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837 827

Table 3 Overview of irrigation efficiency scenarios

Scenario Description

Reference No improvements to irrigation efficiency and no decrease in water losses

Sprinkler Improvements to overall irrigation efficiency to decrease regional water loss to 28.7% of total
water withdrawal. Based on the efficiency of sprinkler irrigation (Fader et al. 2016)
Drip Improvements to overall irrigation efficiency to decrease regional water loss to 14.5% of total
water withdrawal. Based on the efficiency of drip irrigation (Fader et al. 2016)
Deficit No improvements to irrigation efficiency and no decrease in water loss. 27.4% reduction in water
irrigation used on irrigated cropland, together with a 4% decrease in total output of irrigated cropland
(Wriedt et al. 2009)

improvements in cultivars, mechanization, and nutrient management as proposed by Mueller

et al. (2012). We ran all irrigation efficiency scenarios with two irrigation water withdrawal
levels, resulting in eight scenarios (Table 3). We first simulated future land systems distribution
with current irrigation withdrawal values (Table 1). Then, we reduced water withdrawal by
25% until 2050. The two irrigation withdrawal levels enabled us to compare future pathways
where only irrigation efficiency is improved with the ones where water extraction levels are
actually reduced.

2.5 Adaptation options in land management

The methods used and their inherent capabilities enabled us to focus on large scale adaptation
in land management: implementing irrigation, changes to cropland intensity, and changes to
the number of agricultural activities within the same landscape (Table 4). Most significant
adaptation responses in land management in the region are related to improvements in the
efficiency of water use and cropland intensification (Sowers et al. 2010). Due to the signifi-
cance for cultural heritage and biodiversity embedded in Mediterranean mosaic land systems
(Médail and Quézel 1999; Tieskens et al. 2017), we specifically look at adaptation related to
these systems. Mediterranean mosaics are multifunctional, agro-silvo-pastoral systems that
have developed through centuries adapting to harsh environmental conditions (Médail and
Quézel 1999). One example are the dehesas/montados of Spain and Portugal, open woodlands
mostly consisting of oaks (Quercus ilex and Quercus suber). Dehesas/montados are primarily
used for grazing of cattle (Bos taurus), sheep (Ovis aries), goats (Capra aegagrus), and also
pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus). They provide valuable non-timber forest products such as cork,
firewood, and acorns. In the understory layer, cereals such as wheat (Triticum aestivum), oats
(Avena sativa). or barley (Hordeum vulgare) are often cultivated. Grazing, cereal cultivation,
and forestry therefore occur at the same time in these landscapes (Joffre et al. 1999).

3 Results

Spatial distributions of future land system change under different scenarios are summarized in
Fig. 2. The extent of each adaptation option contributing to future food demand is presented in
Fig. 3. Figures 4 and 5 describe the changes to major land system groups in terms of crop
production, area covered, and livestock. All scenario results are presented in the Supporting
information (S9 and S10) and are available in GIS format on www.environmentalgeography.nl.
828 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837

Table 4 Studied adaptation options

Adaptation option Description Land system conversions

Implementing Equipping cropland with irrigation Rain-fed to irrigated cropland

irrigation
Changes to Increase: increase in the intensity of rain-fed Extensive cropland to intensive rain-fed
cropland cropland cropland
intensity Decrease: decrease in the intensity of cropland Intensive rain-fed cropland to extensive
activities cropland
Expansion: introducing cropland activities Non-cropland to cropland land system
Abandonment: abandonment of cropland All cropland types to non-cropland land
activities system
Diversification Introducing new activities on cropland or Mono-functional systems to
woodlands, e.g. livestock grazing multifunctional mosaic systems
Changing Changing activities in multifunctional landscapes Conversions within multifunctional
functionality mosaic systems

3.1 Implementing irrigation

Generally, there is significantly less expansion of irrigated cropland in scenarios with stronger
restrictions on water withdrawal (Figs. 2 and 4). In the reference scenario, irrigated cropland

Fig. 2 Changes in cropland cover, irrigation, and intensity under scenarios of irrigation efficiency and water
withdrawal
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837 829

Fig. 3 Adaptation options contributing to future increases in food demand (%). No values occur when
adaptation does not contribute to additional food demand

cannot contribute to future increases in food demand (Fig. 3), and even results in a decrease in
total irrigated area and crop production Figs. 4 and 5). Similar trends can be observed for the
sprinkler scenario for both levels of water withdrawal. While future increases in area and crop
production are possible with the current level of water withdrawal, the sprinkler scenario also
results in a decreased extent of irrigated cropland in the case of reduced water withdrawal
(Figs. 3 and 4).
Both high irrigation efficiency scenarios indicate that substantial improvements to irrigation
systems are necessary if the Mediterranean wants to continue satisfying most of its future food
demand with irrigated crops (Fig. 3). The large potential of drip and deficit irrigation is
illustrated by the overall increase in crop production in irrigated systems under both water
withdrawal levels for these scenarios (Fig. 4). This is mostly on the account of the assumed

Fig. 4 Change to areas and crop production (%) under scenarios of irrigation efficiency and water withdrawal
830 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837

Fig. 5 Share of land systems in crop production, area, and livestock under scenarios of irrigation efficiency and
water withdrawal

improved productivity of irrigated cropland. In case of reduced water withdrawal, the share of
irrigated cropland in future crop production needs to be considerably lower, despite improve-
ments in irrigation efficiency (Fig. 3).

3.2 Changes to cropland intensity

Increases in the intensity of rain-fed cropland will be necessary, particularly in the case of
reduced water withdrawal (Figs. 3 and 4). Substantial cropland intensification is projected in
areas currently defined by a large share of low intensity cropland, such as Algeria, Syria, and
Turkey (Fig. 2). In the Northern Mediterranean and Tunisia, a decrease in cropland intensity is
occurring simultaneously with cropland expansion (Fig. 2). Cropland abandonment (S10) and
shift to other areas in these parts of the region can be explained by climate change and
marginality of some of the current cropland. All scenarios project a drastic reduction of
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837 831

extensive cropland in favor to more intensive systems and abandonment, with actual cropland
expansion playing a minor role (Fig. 3, S10).
Scenarios with reduced water withdrawals present futures where considerably more crops
need to be produced on intensive rain-fed cropland (Fig. 3). How much rain-fed intensive
cropland will contribute to future food production through intensification and expansion
depends on the level of water used efficiently, and ranges between 14 and 82% (Fig. 3).
Increased productivity of rain-fed cropland will be particularly necessary in case of no or low
improvements to the irrigation efficiency. The results indicate that, for instance, the spatial
extent of intensive rain-fed cropland will need to almost double (+ 91%) in case of no
irrigation efficiency improvements and reduced water withdrawals (Fig. 4).

3.3 Diversification of agricultural activities and changes to multifunctionality

While across the world multifunctional agricultural systems are under pressure, our results
project an expansion of mosaic land systems in all scenarios. The area of these multifunctional
systems increases by 27–40% and total crop production in these systems by 39–73% (Fig. 4).
Under current water withdrawal, mosaic systems expand mostly on extensive cropland
(Table 5). Reducing water withdrawal results in adaptation through diversifying agricultural
activities on irrigated areas, as intensive rain-fed cropland is often not possible on such
locations. The share of irrigated cropland converted to mosaics is most striking in case of no
improvements to irrigation efficiency (Table 5). Despite the overall net increase of mosaic
systems, around a third of them change in all scenarios. Interestingly, more mosaic systems are
persistent in both low irrigation efficiency scenarios (reference and sprinkler) under current
water extraction levels. Most of mosaics change to another mosaic system, and only 4.2 to
6.6% are actually lost by being converted to other land systems (Table 5).
Although mosaic systems satisfy up to a fourth of additional food demand in the future
(Fig. 3), their share in total crop production remains low (Fig. 5). These systems are low
intensity systems with a lower crop output compared to single function systems. Additionally,
we assumed a stable agricultural production within these traditional systems, as they are
unlikely to benefit from technical improvements opposed to intensive agricultural systems.
The role of mosaic systems is more significant when looking at their livestock production.

Table 5 Share of land systems with allocated diversification (%) and changes to the multifunctionality (MF) in
mosaic systems (% of 2010)

Reference Sprinkler Drip Deficit

Current Reduced Current Reduced Current Reduced Current Reduced

Diversification of cropland systems

Extensive rain-fed cropland 52.7 41.3 62.3 53.1 64.0 54.3 64.2 55.8
Intensive rain-fed cropland 17.3 10.0 19.2 15.0 17.6 14.3 19.4 16.1
Irrigated cropland 14.3 40.4 6.0 20.0 3.1 15.3 2.8 15.4
Changes to mosaic systems
Persistent mosaics 68.6 65.0 66.5 66.3 64.2 65.9 63.9 65.8
Reduced MF 7.7 6.0 7.4 6.5 8.6 7.1 8.2 5.7
Same MF level, different 15.4 15.8 17.8 17.0 17.7 18.0 17.5 17.4
system
Increased MF 8.3 13.2 8.3 10.2 9.5 9.0 10.4 11.2
Converted to other system 4.2 6.6 4.2 5.1 4.7 4.5 5.2 5.6
832 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837

Already at the baseline, they host a third of all bovines, goats, and sheep in the Mediterranean,
reaching almost a half of total livestock production in the future (Fig. 5). The model mostly
converted extensive cropland to agro-silvo-forestry systems with higher livestock densities
(Table 5). Conversions to other mosaic systems (e.g., from cropland-woodland to cropland-
wooded rangeland) projected an intensification of livestock grazing in mosaics (Table 5). This
can lead to adverse impacts on the other functions and values of these traditional landscapes.

4 Discussion

4.1 Future adaptation in land management

The limited amount of freshwater constraints the extent of irrigated cropland in the Mediter-
ranean and stimulates non-irrigation adaptation options to future global change. Other land
systems, characterized by low intensity but multifunctional in nature, will keep on having a
significant role in future food production of the region. Generally, reducing water losses leads
to further expansion of irrigated systems and increases of crops produced in irrigated areas.
Existing irrigated cropland was projected to decrease in case of no or low irrigation efficiency
improvements (reference and sprinkler). Although a reduction in irrigated areas seems unre-
alistic, it is occurring on a local scale. Crops with significant water needs such as citruses are
being substituted with crops with lower or no irrigation demands (Iglesias et al. 2011).
Our scenarios project a significant increase in intensity of rain-fed cropland, particularly in
the southern Mediterranean and Turkey, which is also supported by global studies (Mueller
et al. 2012). Climatic conditions, variability in precipitation, and extreme weather events may
limit such intensification in practice. The large extent of cropland intensification projected by
the low irrigation efficiency scenarios is unlikely and more food imports might be needed
(Rudel et al. 2009).
Maintaining multifunctional mosaic land systems, as well as introducing additional activ-
ities to low intensity croplands can be considered as an additional adaptation strategy to scarce
water resources. These systems are mostly satisfying the increased demand for livestock and
partially for crops. Such traditional systems may play a significant role in mitigating and
preventing other negative consequences of intensive agriculture, such as soil erosion (Almagro
et al. 2016) or biodiversity loss (Fagúndez et al. 2016), and are particularly adapted to the hilly
areas with high variability in environmental conditions. Increasing and maintaining the extent
of such land systems will be difficult. Local studies demonstrate that these areas are subject to
abandonment and loss due to intensification (Bajocco et al. 2012; Schaich et al. 2015).
Moreover, future climate change might reduce the crop and livestock productivity of these
systems (Latorre et al. 2001; Freier et al. 2014).

4.2 Discussion of the methodology

We presented a novel approach, where land system modeling is used to investigate future
adaptation in land management under different irrigation efficiency and water withdrawal
scenarios. The scenarios were based on plausible improvements to the overall irrigation
efficiency (Fader et al. 2016) and deficit irrigation (Wriedt et al. 2009). We applied rather
modest water savings and impacts on yields, as higher water savings are possible when
changing crops or improving cultivars (Costa et al. 2007). Much higher losses to yields could
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837 833

be possible due to future climate change (Moriondo et al. 2011). Furthermore, an increase in
irrigation water withdrawal in the region might be possible, as suggested by integrated global
assessment models (Chaturvedi et al. 2015). The need for increased water withdrawal might
also be significantly higher due to increased crop water demands (Giannakopoulos et al. 2009).
The scenarios therefore only cover part of the range of possible changes in circumstances.
Irrespective of these uncertainties, the results illustrate the large land system consequences
adaptation might have for the region. All scenarios also included improvements to yields and
livestock densities. Assumptions on future advancement in agricultural technologies are
subject to high uncertainty, particularly due to future climate change, and could have large
consequences on the ability of the region to produce food (Asseng et al. 2013).
In this study, we did not consider other competing uses of water, such as municipal water,
water for industry, or livestock. Undoubtedly, socioeconomic development in the Mediterra-
nean will result in increased demands for water by the non-agricultural sector, a common trend
in middle income and developing countries (Flörke et al. 2013). Tourism is a major user of
water, competing for water resources with agriculture (Ortuño et al. 2015). Livestock also has
significant demands for water, with livestock-related products often being related to a high
water footprint (Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2012). To consider the competition between different
water users, improved data is needed. For example, statistics on water withdrawal for the
southern Mediterranean countries assign all agricultural water withdrawals to irrigation,
without providing information on other agricultural water use (FAO 2016).
Demand for agricultural products was assumed to follow the integrated assessment model
outcomes for the SSP2 scenario for all our scenarios. In reality, changing environmental
conditions and constraints on water resources will impact the trade balance of the region.
Increasing difficulty to produce in the region may limit exports and strongly increase imports.
At the same time, global food markets will come under increasing pressure due to growing
demands and there will be limitations to further increase imports to the region beyond those
projected by the global models under the SSP2 conditions. Therefore, the scenarios presented
should be seen as experiments of what is feasible in terms of meeting such demands under
various constraints and improvements in the use of irrigation.
We present an approach that can be transferred to other regions experiencing similar
resource constraints or aridity. We demonstrated how the amount of water available for
irrigation significantly impacts the extent of future irrigation expansion and intensification of
rain-fed cropland. Many (semi)arid region are projected to experience significant increases in
food demand, and analyzing future change to land management in these regions should
consider potential changes to water resources. We have also shown how future land system
change is influence by the level of technological improvement, resulting in improved irrigation
efficiency or cropland productivity. When developing scenarios with plausible technological
improvements, we suggest focusing on regionally significant adaptation options. Finally, this
study presents a relatively straightforward approach that can also be used in other regions, as it
is mostly based on publicly accessible spatial data and statistics. Combining data on land use,
management intensity, and irrigation, with crop production and water withdrawal values,
however, demands a certain level of generalization, depending on the spatial scale.

4.3 Limitations to adaptation

Meeting the future demands for agricultural production and the challenges of climate change
requires more than efficient irrigation: also within the other land systems, changes in intensity
834 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837

and crop type will be needed. This study indicates that the extent of simulated adaptation in
land management heavily depends on the level of water used efficiently. In practice, the
potential of a region to produce crops that need irrigation is limited with the region’s ability to
invest in irrigation. The Mediterranean south has a considerably higher share of irrigation with
highest water losses (Table 1) (Jägermeyr et al. 2015). These systems have lower capital costs
and energy demands (Sauer et al. 2010), and improving their efficiency is particularly costly.
We did not consider the depletion of freshwater resources due to unsustainable water
extraction use and climate change, already occurring in the region (Hayashi et al. 2013).
The 25% decrease in water withdrawals represents a reduction as an effect of policy and higher
decreases in water withdrawals might actually be needed. The pressures on freshwater
resources (PFR) did not deteriorate in any scenario (S11). Improving the irrigation efficiency
commonly does not lead to reductions in water extraction but rather leads to increases in
irrigated areas (Jensen 2007). This can be explained by the fact that if farmers reduce the water
use per unit of cropland while receiving the same amount of water for irrigation, they will
expand the extent of irrigated cropland to increase their production. There were substantial
decreases in PFR when improving the irrigation efficiency in the Mediterranean south. Mostly,
this is due to the assumed improvement to cropland productivity. Crop water productivity—the
ratio between crop yield and consumed water—in this region has been identified among the
lowest globally, with high potential for improvement (Zwart and Bastiaanssen 2004). Rela-
tively high productivity increase in this region at the same time decreased the need to expand
the extent of irrigated areas. However, in parts of this region, political instability constrains
investments in more efficient and productive agriculture.

5 Conclusions and recommendations

Our results show that integrated strategies are needed to improve the output of Mediterranean
land systems, while preserving traditional landscapes and water resources to meet the future
agricultural challenges. Available strategies have different impacts on land and water resources
in a region, where land degradation and water stress already are a significant issue today. Only
improving irrigation systems is not sufficient and should come together with strategies to
improve or maintain productivity in all cropland systems. In the case of reduced water
resources, the largest potential lies in improving the productivity of existing cropland in the
Mediterranean region.
In order to expand irrigated cropland in areas where there is no cropland today, or it is being
managed with low intensity, the irrigation efficiency and productivity of irrigated systems need to
be improved, or existing irrigation systems need to be converted to more efficient ones. No or low
improvements will not allow for significant expansion of irrigated cropland under current water
withdrawal and could lead to a decrease in irrigated cropland in a situation with reduced water
withdrawal. Moreover, low improvements to irrigation efficiency require extremely high in-
creases in crop production in rain-fed land systems. Such intensification of rain-fed systems can
in reality be unlikely, considering projected climate change and variability in precipitation. High
agricultural supply assumed in global assessments may therefore be impossible without improve-
ments in irrigation efficiency. Increasing the intensity of management of rain-fed cropland is
necessary to lower irrigation water demands while at the same time increasing crop production. In
order to reduce grazing pressure in other, also arid areas, we suggest preserving traditional
Mediterranean multifunctional systems. Finally, limitations to water withdrawal are needed to
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2018) 23:821–837 835

reduce water stress in the region. We acknowledge that such efforts are an enormous challenge, as
the region is characterized by large disparities in socioeconomic development.

Acknowledgements The research in this paper has been supported by the European Research Council under the
European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme project LUC4C (Grant No. 603542), OPERAs (Grant No.
308393) and ERC grant GLOLAND (No. 311819). This paper contributes to the objectives of the Global Land
Project (http://glp.earth/).

Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and repro-
duction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a
link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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