MANU 3314

PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

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LECTURE 5:
PROJECT SCHEDULING
(WITH UNCERTAIN ACTIVITY TIMES)

Chapter 9.2-9.3: AN INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

 PROJECT SCHEDULING
WITH UNCERTAIN
ACTIVITY TIMES

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 ▪ Accurate activity time estimates are
important in the development of an
activity schedule.

▪ When activity times are uncertain, the

three time estimates allow the
project manager to take uncertainty
into consideration in determining the
critical path and the activity schedule.
`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT
 Optimistic the minimum activity
time
a time if everything
progresses ideally

Most probable the most probable

time
m activity time under
normal conditions

Pessimistic the maximum activity

time
b time if significant delays
are encountered

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activity

a m b

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 EXAMPLE: New Product Development
Mal Hamid the company’s senior engineer is
developing a new product.

The top management has allotted 20 weeks

for the project. Can Mal meet the 20 weeks
deadline and what is the probability that it is
achievable?

Since this is new project, no activity

time has been recorded before

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activity Description Immediate
Predecessor
Develop product design -
A
Plan market research -
B
Prepare routing (manufacturing engineering) A
C
Build prototype model A
D
Prepare marketing brochure A
E
Prepare cost estimates (industrial engineering) C
F
Do preliminary product testing D
G
Complete market survey B,E
H
Prepare pricing and forecast report H
I
Prepare final report F,G,I
J

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activity Optimistic Most probable Pesimistic
(a) (m) (b)
A 4 5 12
B 1 1.5 5
C 2 3 4
D 3 4 11
E 2 3 4
F 1.5 2 2.5
G 1.5 3 4.5
H 2.5 3.5 7.5
I 1.5 2 2.5
J 1 2 3

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Steps to
Calculate
Probability
of Project
Completion
Time

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 1 Calculate Activity Expected Time (t)

Since this is new

project, no activity time
has been recorded
before

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activity (a) (m) (b)
A 4 5 12
B 1 1.5 5
C 2 3 4
D 3 4 11
E 2 3 4
F 1.5 2 2.5
G 1.5 3 4.5
H 2.5 3.5 7.5
Do the rest…
I 1.5 2 2.5
J 1 2 3

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activity (a) (m) (b) Expected Time
(weeks)
A 4 5 12 6
B 1 1.5 5 2
C 2 3 4 3
D 3 4 11 5
E 2 3 4 3
F 1.5 2 2.5 2
G 1.5 3 4.5 3
H 2.5 3.5 7.5 4
I 1.5 2 2.5 2
J 1 2 3 2
Total = 32
`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT
 2 Identify critical path CP
Activity Immediate Expected Time
Predecessor (weeks)

A - 6
B - 2
C A 3
D A 5
E A 3
F C 2
G D 3
H B,E 4
I H 2
J F,G,I 2
`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT
 C F
3 2
A
6
D G J
End
Start 5 3 2

E
3
H I
4 2
B
2

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 C 6 9 F 9 11
3 2
A 0 6
6
D 6 11 G 11 14 J 15 17
End
Start 5 3 2

E 6 9
3
H 9 13 I 13 15
4 2
B 0 2
2
The project completion time is 17 weeks
`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT
 C 6 9 F 9 11
3 10 13 2 13 15
A 0 6
6 0 6
D 6 11 G 11 14 J 15 17
End
Start 5 7 12 3 12 15 2 15 17

E 6 9
3 6 9
H 9 13 I 13 15
4 9 13 2 13 15
B 0 2
2 7 9

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 C 6 9 F 9 11
3 10 13 2 13 15
A 0 6
6 0 6
D 6 11 G 11 14 J 15 17
End
Start 5 7 12 3 12 15 2 15 17

E 6 9
3 6 9
H 9 13 I 13 15
4 9 13 2 13 15
B 0 2
2 7 9
Critical path: A-E-H-I-J
`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT
 3 Calculate the CP expected times ET

Let T denote the total time required to complete the project.

The expected value of T, which is the sum of the expected
times for the critical activities (in step 1)

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Project

E(T)

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activity Expected Time
(weeks)

A 6
B 2
C 3
D 5
E 3
F 2
G 3
Expected Project Completion
H 4 Time
I 2
J 2
`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT
 4 Calculate the CP variance 𝜎2
Critical path of A–E–H–I–J resulted in an expected
total project completion time of 17 weeks.

However, variation in critical activities can cause

variation in the project completion time

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activity (a) (m) (b) CP Variance
A 4 5 12
B 1 1.5 5
C 2 3 4
D 3 4 11
E 2 3 4
F 1.5 2 2.5
G 1.5 3 4.5
H 2.5 3.5 7.5 Do the rest…

I 1.5 2 2.5
J 1 2 3

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activity (a) (m) (b) CP Variance

A 4 5 12 1.78
E 2 3 4 0.11
H 2.5 3.5 7.5 0.69
I 1.5 2 2.5 0.03
J 1 2 3 0.11

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Activities that have larger variances show
a greater degree of uncertainty.

The project manager should monitor the

progress of any activity with a large
variance even if the expected time does
not identify the activity as a critical activity
`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT
 Let us now use the variance in the critical activities
to determine the variance in the project completion
time.

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 5 Calculate the standard deviation 𝜎

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 6 Calculate z and find probability

The z value for the normal probability distribution

at T 20 is:

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Table For The Cumulative Standard
Normal Distribution

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 17 Time (weeks)
Expected
Completion Time

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 Expected Time is 17 Weeks

Probability
(T ≤ 20) is 97%

17 20 Time (weeks)

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 ▪ Calculations indicate activity time variability may
cause the completion time to exceed 17 weeks.

▪ But there is a 97% excellent chance that the

project will be completed before the 20-week
deadline. So Mal can go ahead with his new
product development project.

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT

 What if z value is negative?

`ATIAH ABDULLAH SIDEK MANU 3314 PROJECT & OPERATION MANAGEMENT