Project Management-3

– Project
Management
Learning Objectives
 Describe project management objectives
 Describe the project life cycle
 Diagram networks of project activities
 Estimate the completion time of a project
 Compute the probability of completing a
project by a specific time
Learning Objectives – con’t
 Determine how to reduce the length of a
project effectively
 Describe the critical chain approach to
project management
Project Management
Applications
 What is a project?
 Any unique endeavor with specific objectives
 With multiple activities
 With defined precedent relationships
 With a specific time period for completion
 Examples?
 A major event like a wedding
 Any construction project
 Designing a political campaign
Project Life Cycle
 Conception: identify the need
 Feasibility analysis or study: costs
benefits, and risks
 Planning: who, how long, what to do?
 Execution: doing the project
 Termination: ending the project
Network Planning Techniques
 Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT):
 Developed to manage the Polaris missile project
 Many tasks pushed the boundaries of science &
engineering (tasks’ duration = probabilistic)
 Critical Path Method (CPM):

 Developed to coordinate maintenance projects in the
chemical industry
 A complex undertaking, but individual tasks are
routine (tasks’ duration = deterministic)

Both PERT and CPM
 Graphically display the precedence
relationships & sequence of activities
 Estimate the project’s duration
 Identify critical activities that cannot be
delayed without delaying the project
 Estimate the amount of slack associated with
non-critical activities
Network Diagrams
 Activity-on-Node (AON):
 Uses nodes to represent the activity
 Uses arrows to represent precedence relationships
© Wiley 2007
Step 1-Define the Project: Cables By Us is bringing a new
product on line to be manufactured in their current facility in
existing space. The owners have identified 11 activities and their
precedence relationships. Develop an AON for the project.
Immediate Duration
Activity Description
Predecessor (weeks)
A Develop product specifications None 4
B Design manufacturing process A 6
C Source & purchase materials A 3
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment B 6
E Receive & install tooling & equipment D 14
F Receive materials C 5
G Pilot production run E&F 2
H Evaluate product design G 2
I Evaluate process performance G 3
J Write documentation report H&I 4
K Transition to manufacturing J 2
Step 2- Diagram the Network for
Cables By Us
Step 3 (a)- Add Deterministic Time
Estimates and Connected Paths
Step 3 (a) (Con’t): Calculate
the Project Completion Times
Paths Path duration
ABDEGHJK 40
ABDEGIJK 41
ACFGHJK 22
ACFGIJK 23
 The longest path (ABDEGIJK) limits the
project’s duration (project cannot finish in
less time than its longest path)
 ABDEGIJK is the project’s critical path
Some Network Definitions
 All activities on the critical path have zero slack
 Slack defines how long non-critical activities can be
delayed without delaying the project
 Slack = the activity’s late finish minus its early finish
(or its late start minus its early start)
 Earliest Start (ES) = the earliest finish of the immediately
preceding activity
 Earliest Finish (EF) = is the ES plus the activity time
 Latest Start (LS) and Latest Finish (LF) = the latest an
activity can start (LS) or finish (LF) without delaying the
project completion
ES, EF Network
LS, LF Network
Calculating Slack
Late Early Slack
Activity
Finish Finish (weeks)
A 4 4 0
B 10 10 0
C 25 7 18
D 16 16 0
E 30 30 0
F 30 12 18
G 32 32 0
H 35 34 1
I 35 35 0
J 39 39 0
K 41 41 0
PERT Technique
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Activity Description
time time time
A Develop product specifications 2 4 6
B Design manufacturing process 3 7 10
C Source & purchase materials 2 3 5
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment 4 7 9
E Receive & install tooling & equipment 12 16 20
F Receive materials 2 5 8
G Pilot production run 2 2 2
H Evaluate product design 2 3 4
I Evaluate process performance 2 3 5
J Write documentation report 2 4 6
K Transition to manufacturing 2 2 2
Using Beta Probability Distribution to
Calculate Expected Time Durations
 A typical beta distribution is shown below, note that it
has definite end points
 The expected time for finishing each activity is a
weighted average
optimistic  4 most likely  pessimistic

Exp. time 
6
Calculating Expected Task Times
optimistic  4 most likely   pessimistic
Expected time 
6
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected
Activity
time time time time
A 2 4 6 4
B 3 7 10 6.83
C 2 3 5 3.17
D 4 7 9 6.83
E 12 16 20 16
F 2 5 8 5
G 2 2 2 2
H 2 3 4 3
I 2 3 5 3.17
J 2 4 6 4
K 2 2 © Wiley 2007 2 2
Network Diagram with
Expected Activity Times
Estimated Path Durations through
the Network
Activities on paths Expected duration
ABDEGHJK 44.66
ABDEGIJK 44.83
ACFGHJK 23.17
ACFGIJK 23.34
 ABDEGIJK is the expected critical path &
the project has an expected duration of
44.83 weeks
Estimating the Probability of
Completion Dates
 Using probabilistic time estimates offers the advantage of
predicting the probability of project completion dates
 We have already calculated the expected time for each activity by
making three time estimates
 Now we need to calculate the variance for each activity
 The variance of the beta probability distribution is:
2
po
σ 2
 
 6 
 where p=pessimistic activity time estimate
o=optimistic activity time estimate
Project Activity Variance
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Variance
A 2 4 6 0.44
B 3 7 10 1.36
C 2 3 5 0.25
D 4 7 9 0.69
E 12 16 20 1.78
F 2 5 8 1.00
G 2 2 2 0.00
H 2 3 4 0.11
I 2 3 5 0.25
J 2 4 6 0.44
K 2 2 2007
© Wiley 2 0.00
Variances of Each Path through
the Network
Path Activities on Path Variance
Number Path (weeks)
1 A,B,D,E,G,H,J,k 4.82
2 A,B,D,E,G,I,J,K 4.96
3 A,C,F,G,H,J,K 2.24
4 A,C,F,G,I,J,K 2.38
Calculating the Probability of Completing
the Project in Less Than a Specified Time
 When you know:
 The expected completion time
 Its variance
 You can calculate the probability of completing the project

in “X” weeks with the following formula:
specified time  path expected time  DT  EFP 

z   
path standard time  σP 2

Where DT = the specified completion date
EFPath = the expected completion time of the path
σPath 2  variance of path
Example: Calculating the probability of
finishing the project in 48 weeks
 Use the z values to determine probabilities
 e.g. probability for path 1 is z   48 weeks  44.66 weeks   1.52
 4.82 
Path Activities on Path Path Variance z-value Probability of

Number (weeks) Completion
1 A,B,D,E,G,H,J,k 4.82 1.5216 0.9357
2 A,B,D,E,G,I,J,K 4.96 1.4215 0.9222
3 A,C,F,G,H,J,K 2.24 16.5898 1.000
4 A,C,F,G,I,J,K 2.38 15.9847 1.000

Reducing Project Completion
Time
 Project completion times may need to
be shortened because:
 Different deadlines
 Penalty clauses
 Need to put resources on a new project
 Promised completion dates
 Reduced project completion time is
“crashing”
Reducing Project Completion
Time
 Crashing a project needs to balance
 Shorten a project duration
 Cost to shorten the project duration
 Crashing a project requires you to know
 Crash time of each activity
 Crash cost of each activity
Crash cost/duration = (crash cost-normal cost)/(normal time – crash time)
Reducing the Time of a Project (crashing)
Activity Normal Normal Crash Crash Max. weeks Reduce cost
Time (wk) Cost ($) Time Cost ($) of reduction per week
A 4 8,000 3 11,000 1 3,000
B 6 30,000 5 35,000 1 5,000
C 3 6,000 3 6,000 0 0
D 6 24,000 4 28,000 2 2,000
E 14 60,000 12 72,000 2 6,000
F 5 5,000 4 6,500 1 1500
G 2 6,000 2 6,000 0 0
H 2 4,000 2 4,000 0 0
I 3 4,000 2 5,000 1 1,000
J 4 4,000 2 6,400 2 1,200
K 2 5,000 2 © Wiley 2007
5,000 0 0
Crashing Example: Suppose the Cables By
Us project manager wants to reduce the new
product project from 41 to 36 weeks.
 Crashing Costs are considered to be linear

 Look to crash activities on the critical path
 Crash the least expensive activities on the critical
path first (based on cost per week)
 Crash activity I from 3 weeks to 2 weeks $1000
 Crash activity J from 4 weeks to 2 weeks $2400
 Crash activity D from 6 weeks to 4 weeks $4000
 Recommend Crash Cost $7400
 Question: Will crashing 5 weeks return more in

benefits than it costs?
Crashed Network Diagram

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– Project

 Many tasks pushed the boundaries of science &

engineering (tasks’ duration = probabilistic)

 Critical Path Method (CPM):

routine (tasks’ duration = deterministic)

optimistic  4 most likely  pessimistic

 You can calculate the probability of completing the project

specified time  path expected time  DT  EFP 

Path Activities on Path Path Variance z-value Probability of

4 A,C,F,G,I,J,K 2.38 15.9847 1.000

 Crashing Costs are considered to be linear

 Question: Will crashing 5 weeks return more in

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