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2022 12 12 Global Debt Monitor

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2022 GLOBAL DEBT MONITOR

Highlights
• Global debt fell 10 percentage points of GDP in 2021, the largest one-year fall in the last 70 years, to
247 percent of GDP. In U.S. dollars, global debt reached 235 trillion last year.
• Public debt dropped to 96 percent of GDP amidst an economic rebound and high inflation.
• Non-financial private debt declined to 153 percent of GDP in 2021, driven by lower corporate debt.
• This is the inaugural edition of the Global Debt Monitor. It discusses key trends in public and non-
financial private debt worldwide based on the 2022 Update of the IMF Global Debt Database.

Global Debt Developments 1 • The largest decline in debt was among


advanced economies (AEs). Total debt
Total world debt (public plus non-financial
declined on average by 10 percentage
private debt stocks) declined 10 percentage
points of GDP, to 292 percent of GDP in
points of GDP in 2021, to 247 percent of GDP
2021, driven by similar falls in public and
(US$ 235 trillion). This follows the largest
private debt. The latter was driven by a
one-year increase in global debt in 2020,
drop of 4 percentage points of GDP in
when it rose by 29 percentage points of GDP.
non-financial corporate debt. Household
The fall in debt accounted for one third of the
debt fell by 2 percentage points of GDP.
increase in 2020 (Figure 1).
• The fall in debt among emerging markets
The world’s public debt fell from 100 percent
(EMs) was driven by private debt. Total
of GDP in 2020 to 96 percent of GDP in 2021,
debt-to-GDP fell, on average, 7
supported by strong real GDP growth, high
percentage points to 192 percent of GDP
inflation, and the withdrawal of COVID-19
in 2021, matched by a reduction of
fiscal support measures (Table 1).
similar size in private debt to 130 percent
Meanwhile, the world’s non-financial private of GDP. EMs’ public debt remained
debt dropped from 160 percent of GDP in broadly stable around 64 percent of GDP.
2020 to 153 percent of GDP in 2021, driven by However, these ratios are heavily
lower corporate debt (Table 2). The drop in influenced by China. For the group of
corporate debt (4.2 percent of GDP) was emerging markets excluding China (EMs
larger than that of household debt (1.5 ex-China), public and private debt fell,
percentage points). respectively, 4 and 6 percentage points of
The debt changes were heterogeneous across GDP. As a result, total debt in EMs ex-
country groups: China fell to 130 percent of GDP in 2021.

1
Prepared by Roberto Perrelli (team leader), Youssouf Womer, and Chenlu Zhang, with assistance from Meron
Kiendrebeogo, Virat Singh, Zhonghao Wei, Andrew Haile, and under the guidance of Paulo Medas.

Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | December 2022 1


2022 Global Debt Monitor
• Contrary to other countries, total debt to zero. During 2020 they widened and
increased in low-income developing shifted upwards. In 2021, they moved in the
countries (LIDCs) to 88 percent of GDP in opposite direction but still with large
2021. Public debt remained close to 49 variation within and across country groups
percent of GDP while non-financial (Figure 4).
private debt-to-GDP ratio rose, on
average, 2 percentage points to 40 Deleveraging in Household and NFC Debt
percent. (See Tables 1 and 2)
Private debt patterns diverged substantially
between AEs and EMs. For instance, in the
Global Debt Drivers
decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,
The decline in the world’s debt-to-GDP ratios households in AEs experienced a gradual but
was chiefly driven by a sharp rise in nominal consistent deleveraging process that brought
GDP in the largest economies. While fiscal their debt down from 81 percent of GDP in
deficits declined in 2021, as many countries 2009 to 73 percent of GDP in 2019 (Figure 5).
withdrew fiscal support to firms and Meanwhile, household debt in EMs continued
households and collected more revenues, growing, reaching 41 percent of GDP at the
they remained relatively large and continued pandemic onset. Albeit starting from a low
pushing public debt up in all country groups base, household debt in China more than
(October 2022 Fiscal Monitor). What drove doubled, ending 2019 at 56 percent of GDP.
debt ratios down was mainly rising nominal
During the same period, non-financial
GDP. For instance, real growth helped to
corporate debt in advanced economies
reduce G-20 public debt on average by near
remained relatively stable, ending 2019 at 92
4½ percentage points of GDP while high
percent of GDP—1 percentage point of GDP
inflation pushed debt ratios down by about 5
higher than in 2009. In contrast, corporate
percent of GDP. Public debt in 2021, however,
indebtedness in EMs went up from 64 percent
remained above 2019 in all income groups
of GDP in 2009 to 90 percent of GDP in 2019
(Figure 2).
(Figure 6). The steady increase in EMs non-
Likewise, exceptional growth and inflation financial corporate debt between the Global
rates helped to reduce private sector debt Financial Crisis and the pandemic onset was
around the world. For instance, among G-20 driven by China, where it rose around 30
countries, on average, the economic rebound percentage points, reaching 134 percent of
shaved off near 7 percent of GDP while GDP in 2019.
inflation pushed debt downwards by more
than 6½ percentage points of GDP, partly Debt Transparency
compensating for the rise in 2020 (Figure 3).
Fiscal transparency – the
The exceptional impact of growth and comprehensiveness, clarity, reliability,
inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic timeliness, and relevance of public reporting
becomes more evident when we contrast it on the past, present, and future state of
with the historical distributions of their public finances – is critical for effective fiscal
contributions to debt. Prior to the pandemic,
these distributions were narrower and closer

Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | December 2022 2


2022 Global Debt Monitor
management and accountability. 2 One accurate disclosure of debt to the general
element is debt transparency, which is public, for a wide range of countries. It also
fundamental to promoting sustainable allows for cross-country comparison given it
borrowing and lending practices and provide strives to use common standards as much as
a comprehensive view of government’s possible. The GDD covers private and public
outstanding debt and contingent liabilities. It debt for 190 countries, with information
informs debt restructuring processes and dating back to the 1950s. It offers multiple
supports accountability for the use of public debt series with different coverages, and
resources. more than doubles the number of countries
of existing private debt datasets. The
The debt landscape has become more
database is subject to regular checks through
complex, with the increased diversity of
bilateral consultations with country officials
creditors, the emergence of new forms of
and IMF country desks.
lending, and the wider use of confidentiality
clauses (Suarez et. al., 2021). The adequacy of
debt reporting and disclosure is not keeping Frequently Asked Questions
up with debt complexity. Current legal
What is the IMF Global Debt Database (GDD)?
frameworks have few provisions for debt
The IMF Global Debt Database (GDD) is a dataset covering
disclosure and reporting. Some countries private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190
have a narrow set of instruments in their countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a
legal definition of debt, covering only multiyear investigative process that started with the October
2016 Fiscal Monitor (IMF, 2016), which pioneered the
securities and loans and leaving out more
expansion of private debt series to a global sample.
complex debt instruments. In many
countries, especially LIDCs, only central Where can I find the original paper that conceived the GDD?

government debt is reported, leaving out Please refer to Mbaye, S., Moreno-Badia, M., and K. Chae.
important public debt issuers such as state- 2018. “Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources,” IMF
Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington,
owned enterprises, local and subnational DC.
governments, and extrabudgetary bodies.
How the GDD differs from other debt databases?
More generally, inadequate reporting on
It differs in three major ways. First, where most debt datasets
debt, as well as other contingent liabilities,
either provide long series with a narrow and changing
undermines good fiscal management and definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a
accountability. Lack of transparency prevents short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by
offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus
an appropriate assessment of risks,
ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than
undermines investor confidence, and doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt
increases borrowing costs. In some cases, datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked
through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country
unreported debt represents a large fraction of
desks of all countries in the sample.
GDP, posing risks to debt sustainability.
The GDD reports data for both public and private debt
The IMF Global Debt Database (GDD) covering the largest number of countries (compared to other
contributes to improve debt transparency at databases) and the longest time dimension. The 2022 update
covers 190 countries for the period 1950-2021. Adequate debt
the global level. It provides a timely and data are typically lacking for many emerging market and low-

2
See IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (2019).

Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | December 2022 3


2022 Global Debt Monitor
income countries. This is particularly the case of state-owned when the private debt series comes from financial accounts
enterprises (SOEs) and private sector debt. The GDD provides (in which case, SOEs’ debt is included in the private debt
the largest coverage of public and private corporations debt series).
data for these countries.
Which private debt series are available in the GDD?
Existing datasets focus either on country coverage, favoring
exhaustivity of the debt definition, or on time coverage, The GDD reports on household and non-financial private
prioritizing how far back we can go. By focusing on the post- corporate debt. Private sector debt is defined as the gross
World War II period, the GDD ensures data homogeneity both outstanding stock of all liabilities that are debt instruments,
over time and across countries compared to alternative in line with the System of National Accounts 2008. Cross-
datasets with longer time series. Moreover, the GDD relies on border debt flows are considered. Comparability is achieved
primary sources, while alternative databases, especially those by making sure that each debt series refers to a single
produced by researchers, rely on secondary sources to collect institutional unit. To ensure accuracy of the debt data, a
debt data. comprehensive validation exercise is conducted with IMF
country desks and officials. Data discrepancies are addressed
The reported debt series are compiled without recourse to
by consulting country officials, statisticians, and other data
extrapolation, interpolation, or auxiliary regressions. Original
compilers (e.g. BIS, OECD, and World Bank).
data series are adjusted for differences in definition and
coverage whenever feasible.
How is public debt in the Global Debt Database calculated?

How often is the Global Debt Database updated? The GDD builds on the IMF’s Historical Public Debt Database
(HPDD) (Abbas and others, 2011) improving it along three
The GDD is updated annually during the last quarter of the
dimensions. First, it reports separate series for general and
year following the latest available data. For instance, the GDD
central government debt. In addition, it includes data on the
update reflecting 2021 data is launched during the last
nonfinancial public sector and public sector (subject to data
quarter of 2022. This is done to ensure the highest amount of
availability). Second, it fills in more than three-quarters of
accuracy. For example:
existing breaks in the HPDD series by relying on a wider range
• Advanced economies typically finalize their annual data of sources and distinguishing between central and general
six months after the end of each year. Emerging Markets government debt. The dataset has on average about fourteen
may take up to nine months to finalize their annual data. more years of continuous series relative to the HPDD. Third,
Low-Income Developing Countries and Frontier the GDD expands the HPDD’s country coverage by ten—
economies can take up to a whole year, or even two in mostly low-income developing countries.
some cases, to finalize their annual data.
How is private debt in the Global Debt Database calculated?
• In some instances, the data sources the GDD draws upon
to collect both the latest and the revised historical series The GDD’s approach to compiling private debt statistics
are no longer updated by national authorities or builds and improves upon the methodology developed by the
institutional databases, like the Bank for International BIS (Dembiermont, Drehmann, and Muksakunratana 2013).
Settlements (BIS), Eurostat, and International Financial The original BIS sample was expanded to include 158
Statistics (IFS). We strive to evaluate viable alternatives countries. Private debt is defined as the gross outstanding
and methods to update the series to the latest available stock of all liabilities that are debt instruments, in line with
year. the System of National Accounts 2008. In practice, only a
handful of countries provide an exhaustive coverage of the
Which public debt series are available in the GDD? above instruments dating back to the 1950s. Adding to this
problem, financial innovation and the emergence of new
The GDD covers central government debt, general
debt-like obligations and types of creditors (e.g. shadow
government debt, and non-financial public sector debt. The
banking) may not be captured in official statistics. Thus, we
public debt series in the GDD corresponds to gross debt and it
also compile an alternative measure of private debt that
aims at covering all debt instruments owed by the general
focuses on the core debt instruments, i.e., loans and debt
and/or central government, as defined in the IMF’s Public
securities. This narrower definition of private debt mirrors
Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers 2011. It covers the
that of the BIS database and helps to expand the GDD
following instruments: (i) loans; (ii) debt securities; (iii)
coverage considerably.
currency and deposits; (iv) insurance, pension, and
standardized guarantee schemes; (v) other accounts payable;
How does the GDD calculate the aggregate debt to GDP ratio for
and (vi) special drawing rights. SOE debt is, in most cases,
a country group or for the world?
excluded from the GDD except in countries where the public
debt series covers the nonfinancial public sector (in which For any given year, the aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio for a
case, the debt of SOEs is included in the public sector) or country group is computed as a GDP-weighted average of

Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | December 2022 4


2022 Global Debt Monitor
individual countries’ debt-to-GDP ratios. For example, let 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 Mbaye, S., Moreno-Badia, M., and K. Chae. 2018. “Global Debt
denote the debt-to-GDP ratio of country 𝑖𝑖, 𝑑𝑑 be the aggregate Database: Methodology and Sources,” IMF Working Paper,
debt ratio for the country group, and 𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 refer to each International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
country’s GDP converted in U.S. dollars using the period-
Suarez, K. V., K. Alex-Okoh, and G. L. Pardo. (2021). Legal
average exchange rate. Then:
Foundations of Public Debt Transparency: Aligning the Law
𝑌𝑌𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈
𝑑𝑑 = ∑𝑖𝑖 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 ∑ 𝑖𝑖𝑌𝑌𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 with Good Practices. IMF PFM Blog.
𝑖𝑖 𝑖𝑖

In other words, if 𝐴𝐴𝑖𝑖 is the period average exchange rate, the


aggregate debt ratio can be expressed as
𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖𝐴𝐴 𝑖𝑖
𝑑𝑑 = ∑𝑖𝑖 .
𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖 ∑𝑖𝑖 𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖𝐴𝐴 𝑖𝑖

Using the GDP-weighted average is one of the reasons why


adding up all countries’ debt ratios does not necessary give
the global ratio. Unless individual countries have equal
weights, the sum of individual debt ratios will differ from the
aggregate number (∑ 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 ≠ 𝑑𝑑). Also, the aggregate debt ratio is
not necessarily equal to total debt divided by total GDP, both
𝐷𝐷𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈
expressed in USD (𝑑𝑑 ≠ 𝑌𝑌𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈). The weighted average debt to
GDP ratio can change due to changes in debt ratios and/or
changes in GDP weights. Finally, depending on the influence
of missing data, subcomponents of total debt (for example,
private and public debt) may not sum up to the total.

What is data transparency and how the GDD enhances it?

Broadly speaking, debt transparency is the timely disclosure


or reporting of debt to the general public. It is the knowledge
of how much debt is owned by whom to whom and with which
instruments and conditions. Improving data transparency has
important benefits not only for creditors but also for
borrowers. By providing timely and accurate disclosure of
public and private debt to the general public, for a wide range
of countries, the GDD helps to enhance data transparency.

Who could we contact if we have questions about the GDD?

For further queries, please refer to the GDD webpage in the


IMF website or send an e-mail to IMF-GDD@imf.org.

References
Abbas, S. A., N. Belhocine, A. El-Ganainy, and M. Horton,
2011. A Historical Public Debt Database. IMF Economic
Review, 59(4) 717–42.

Dembiermont, C., M. Drehmann, and S. Muksakunratana,


2013. How Much Does the Private Sector Really Borrow? A
New Database for Total Credit to the Private Non-Financial
Sector. BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp. 65-81.

IMF, 2016, “Debt: Use it Wisely,” Fiscal Monitor, October.


Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

IMF, 2019, Fiscal Transparency Code. Washington, DC:


International Monetary Fund.

Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | December 2022 5


2022 Global Debt Monitor
Figure 1. Global Public and Private Debt, 1970– Figure 4. Historical Contributions of Growth and
2021 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages) Inflation to Public Debt Changes, 2005–21 (Joint
contributions to debt changes, in percent of GDP)
300
COVID-19
Pandemic
Global 2020: 257%
250 Financial 2021:
2019:
Crisis 2009: 228%
247%
215%
2007:
2021
200 195%
Public:
96%
2021
Private:
150 Public Debt 153%

Household Debt

Private Debt
100

50
NFC Debt
0
1970

2000

2021
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97

03
06
09
12
15
18 Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022; IMF World
Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022
Economic Outlook; and staff calculations.
Figure 2. Public Debt Ratios by Country Group,
Figure 5. Household Debt in Advanced
2019–21 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages)
Economies and Emerging Markets, 2005–21
160 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages)
2019 2020 2021
140 135 90 90
125
128 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets
119 80 80
120
109
105
100 70 70
100 96

84 60 60
80
71
68 50 50
64 64
61
60 58 57
54 52
49 49 40 40
43
40 30 30

20 20 20

10 10
0
World AEs EMs EMs ex- LIDCs US China
0 0
China
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2005

06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2005

Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022


Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022

Figure 3. Private Debt Ratios by Country Group,


Figure 6. Non-Financial Corporate Debt in
2019–21 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages) Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets,
250 2005–21 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages)
2019 2020 2021
110 110
201 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets
200 190 194 100 100
180
175
165 90 90
165
160 159
153 152
146 80 80
150
137
130
124 70 70

60 60
100
80 50 50
73 74
40 40

50 40
36 38 30 30

20 20

0 10 10

World AEs EMs EMs ex- LIDCs US China


0 0
China
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2005
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2005

Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022 Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022

Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | December 2022 6


2022 IMF Global Debt Monitor

Table 1. Global Public Debt, 2007–21


(Percent of GDP, weighted averages)

Average
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-18 2019 2020 2021
World 61.2 64.1 74.8 76.9 80.9 84.1 99.8 95.7
Advanced Economies 71.8 78.5 91.8 98.2 105.2 105.3 124.6 119.5
Euro Area 66.0 69.7 80.4 86.0 92.1 85.8 99.0 97.5
Japan 172.8 180.7 198.7 205.7 229.1 236.3 259.4 262.5
United Kingdom 43.0 50.7 64.6 75.7 85.2 84.8 103.6 103.8
United States 64.6 73.4 86.6 95.1 104.7 108.8 134.5 128.1
Emerging Market Economies 35.0 32.9 38.4 37.4 43.3 54.2 64.5 64.0
China 29.2 27.2 34.6 33.9 42.6 57.2 68.1 71.5
Others 36.7 34.7 40.0 38.7 43.7 51.9 61.4 57.6
Low-Income Developing Countries 29.2 27.3 29.6 28.0 34.8 42.9 48.6 48.7

Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022

Table 2. Global Private Debt, 2007–21


(Percent of GDP, weighted averages)

Average
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-18 2019 2020 2021
World 136.0 137.2 142.6 137.1 140.5 146.2 159.5 153.5
Advanced Economies 164.0 168.0 171.8 166.8 164.2 165.3 179.6 174.5
Euro Area 153.4 159.1 167.1 166.7 164.4 160.8 174.1 169.0
Japan 158.8 163.8 170.3 162.8 158.4 164.4 184.1 187.1
United Kingdom 175.6 185.7 185.4 177.7 163.2 154.8 169.1 157.8
United States 169.2 168.8 167.5 159.0 151.0 151.6 165.2 159.1
Emerging Market Economies 67.6 71.3 81.6 83.7 107.5 123.9 136.6 130.1
China 105.8 105.8 127.8 138.4 169.4 189.5 200.8 193.6
Others 56.0 59.7 62.6 61.8 69.2 72.9 80.4 74.0
Low-Income Developing Countries 19.7 21.6 24.6 24.2 28.4 35.5 38.0 40.0

Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022

Fiscal Affairs Department | International Monetary Fund | December 2022 7

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