2022 12 12 Global Debt Monitor
2022 12 12 Global Debt Monitor
2022 12 12 Global Debt Monitor
Highlights
• Global debt fell 10 percentage points of GDP in 2021, the largest one-year fall in the last 70 years, to
247 percent of GDP. In U.S. dollars, global debt reached 235 trillion last year.
• Public debt dropped to 96 percent of GDP amidst an economic rebound and high inflation.
• Non-financial private debt declined to 153 percent of GDP in 2021, driven by lower corporate debt.
• This is the inaugural edition of the Global Debt Monitor. It discusses key trends in public and non-
financial private debt worldwide based on the 2022 Update of the IMF Global Debt Database.
1
Prepared by Roberto Perrelli (team leader), Youssouf Womer, and Chenlu Zhang, with assistance from Meron
Kiendrebeogo, Virat Singh, Zhonghao Wei, Andrew Haile, and under the guidance of Paulo Medas.
government debt is reported, leaving out Please refer to Mbaye, S., Moreno-Badia, M., and K. Chae.
important public debt issuers such as state- 2018. “Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources,” IMF
Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington,
owned enterprises, local and subnational DC.
governments, and extrabudgetary bodies.
How the GDD differs from other debt databases?
More generally, inadequate reporting on
It differs in three major ways. First, where most debt datasets
debt, as well as other contingent liabilities,
either provide long series with a narrow and changing
undermines good fiscal management and definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a
accountability. Lack of transparency prevents short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by
offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus
an appropriate assessment of risks,
ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than
undermines investor confidence, and doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt
increases borrowing costs. In some cases, datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked
through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country
unreported debt represents a large fraction of
desks of all countries in the sample.
GDP, posing risks to debt sustainability.
The GDD reports data for both public and private debt
The IMF Global Debt Database (GDD) covering the largest number of countries (compared to other
contributes to improve debt transparency at databases) and the longest time dimension. The 2022 update
covers 190 countries for the period 1950-2021. Adequate debt
the global level. It provides a timely and data are typically lacking for many emerging market and low-
2
See IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (2019).
How often is the Global Debt Database updated? The GDD builds on the IMF’s Historical Public Debt Database
(HPDD) (Abbas and others, 2011) improving it along three
The GDD is updated annually during the last quarter of the
dimensions. First, it reports separate series for general and
year following the latest available data. For instance, the GDD
central government debt. In addition, it includes data on the
update reflecting 2021 data is launched during the last
nonfinancial public sector and public sector (subject to data
quarter of 2022. This is done to ensure the highest amount of
availability). Second, it fills in more than three-quarters of
accuracy. For example:
existing breaks in the HPDD series by relying on a wider range
• Advanced economies typically finalize their annual data of sources and distinguishing between central and general
six months after the end of each year. Emerging Markets government debt. The dataset has on average about fourteen
may take up to nine months to finalize their annual data. more years of continuous series relative to the HPDD. Third,
Low-Income Developing Countries and Frontier the GDD expands the HPDD’s country coverage by ten—
economies can take up to a whole year, or even two in mostly low-income developing countries.
some cases, to finalize their annual data.
How is private debt in the Global Debt Database calculated?
• In some instances, the data sources the GDD draws upon
to collect both the latest and the revised historical series The GDD’s approach to compiling private debt statistics
are no longer updated by national authorities or builds and improves upon the methodology developed by the
institutional databases, like the Bank for International BIS (Dembiermont, Drehmann, and Muksakunratana 2013).
Settlements (BIS), Eurostat, and International Financial The original BIS sample was expanded to include 158
Statistics (IFS). We strive to evaluate viable alternatives countries. Private debt is defined as the gross outstanding
and methods to update the series to the latest available stock of all liabilities that are debt instruments, in line with
year. the System of National Accounts 2008. In practice, only a
handful of countries provide an exhaustive coverage of the
Which public debt series are available in the GDD? above instruments dating back to the 1950s. Adding to this
problem, financial innovation and the emergence of new
The GDD covers central government debt, general
debt-like obligations and types of creditors (e.g. shadow
government debt, and non-financial public sector debt. The
banking) may not be captured in official statistics. Thus, we
public debt series in the GDD corresponds to gross debt and it
also compile an alternative measure of private debt that
aims at covering all debt instruments owed by the general
focuses on the core debt instruments, i.e., loans and debt
and/or central government, as defined in the IMF’s Public
securities. This narrower definition of private debt mirrors
Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers 2011. It covers the
that of the BIS database and helps to expand the GDD
following instruments: (i) loans; (ii) debt securities; (iii)
coverage considerably.
currency and deposits; (iv) insurance, pension, and
standardized guarantee schemes; (v) other accounts payable;
How does the GDD calculate the aggregate debt to GDP ratio for
and (vi) special drawing rights. SOE debt is, in most cases,
a country group or for the world?
excluded from the GDD except in countries where the public
debt series covers the nonfinancial public sector (in which For any given year, the aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio for a
case, the debt of SOEs is included in the public sector) or country group is computed as a GDP-weighted average of
References
Abbas, S. A., N. Belhocine, A. El-Ganainy, and M. Horton,
2011. A Historical Public Debt Database. IMF Economic
Review, 59(4) 717–42.
Household Debt
Private Debt
100
50
NFC Debt
0
1970
2000
2021
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
03
06
09
12
15
18 Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022; IMF World
Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022
Economic Outlook; and staff calculations.
Figure 2. Public Debt Ratios by Country Group,
Figure 5. Household Debt in Advanced
2019–21 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages)
Economies and Emerging Markets, 2005–21
160 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages)
2019 2020 2021
140 135 90 90
125
128 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets
119 80 80
120
109
105
100 70 70
100 96
84 60 60
80
71
68 50 50
64 64
61
60 58 57
54 52
49 49 40 40
43
40 30 30
20 20 20
10 10
0
World AEs EMs EMs ex- LIDCs US China
0 0
China
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2005
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2005
60 60
100
80 50 50
73 74
40 40
50 40
36 38 30 30
20 20
0 10 10
Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022 Source: IMF Global Debt Database, 2022
Average
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-18 2019 2020 2021
World 61.2 64.1 74.8 76.9 80.9 84.1 99.8 95.7
Advanced Economies 71.8 78.5 91.8 98.2 105.2 105.3 124.6 119.5
Euro Area 66.0 69.7 80.4 86.0 92.1 85.8 99.0 97.5
Japan 172.8 180.7 198.7 205.7 229.1 236.3 259.4 262.5
United Kingdom 43.0 50.7 64.6 75.7 85.2 84.8 103.6 103.8
United States 64.6 73.4 86.6 95.1 104.7 108.8 134.5 128.1
Emerging Market Economies 35.0 32.9 38.4 37.4 43.3 54.2 64.5 64.0
China 29.2 27.2 34.6 33.9 42.6 57.2 68.1 71.5
Others 36.7 34.7 40.0 38.7 43.7 51.9 61.4 57.6
Low-Income Developing Countries 29.2 27.3 29.6 28.0 34.8 42.9 48.6 48.7
Average
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-18 2019 2020 2021
World 136.0 137.2 142.6 137.1 140.5 146.2 159.5 153.5
Advanced Economies 164.0 168.0 171.8 166.8 164.2 165.3 179.6 174.5
Euro Area 153.4 159.1 167.1 166.7 164.4 160.8 174.1 169.0
Japan 158.8 163.8 170.3 162.8 158.4 164.4 184.1 187.1
United Kingdom 175.6 185.7 185.4 177.7 163.2 154.8 169.1 157.8
United States 169.2 168.8 167.5 159.0 151.0 151.6 165.2 159.1
Emerging Market Economies 67.6 71.3 81.6 83.7 107.5 123.9 136.6 130.1
China 105.8 105.8 127.8 138.4 169.4 189.5 200.8 193.6
Others 56.0 59.7 62.6 61.8 69.2 72.9 80.4 74.0
Low-Income Developing Countries 19.7 21.6 24.6 24.2 28.4 35.5 38.0 40.0