Cap 7
Cap 7
Cap 7
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The use of all of these methods is recommended. Each may possibly reveal
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It is useful to plot the residuals, or the studentized residuals, against the values of
the coded variables X; in turn. These should be evenly distributed, with no obvious
dependence on the factor. Figure 7.1 gives the example of the response of cloud
point, in the case of the formulation of an oral solution (3) already discussed in
chapters 3, 5, and 6. The studentized residuals are plotted in turn against the
polysorbate 80 concentration (Xt), the propylene glycol concentration (X2), and the
invert sucrose medium (X3).
The design (central composite) was for a second-order model, so this model
was used for the calculation. However, analysis of variance showed that the second-
order coefficients were not statistically significant, and there was (possibly) some
lack of fit (significance 0.067). Graphs (a) and (c) show no trends; the points are
scattered evenly. However, graph (b) of cloud point against propylene glycol
concentration, shows a plot clearly cubic in type. The fit of the model may be
improved greatly if an j23 term is added to the first- or second-order model. In view
of the lack of significance of the quadratic model, and the high variability of the
replicated experiments, it is unlikely that other cubic terms would be needed (see
chapter 5, section VII).
The new model could be fitted without doing further experiments, but we
would advise against this. Further experiments might be selected along the X2 axis,
for example at points jc2 = -1.68, -0.56, +0.56, +1.68, in order to confirm the model.
There may be cases where there are no systematic differences between
predicted and experimental values, but where the scatter of the residuals depends
on the value of the factor. This could be because the standard deviation is
dependent on the response (see section 4). Otherwise, if this scatter of residuals
proves not to be response-dependent, but a function only of the level of the factor,
then the methods of section IV could prove useful for reducing the variability of
the formulation or process being studied.
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2 -X- h fP
r^
t v
< x,
4
2 \ — ^ '/P
^
0 y 0- T ; f
/I '
V
'
\
-2 — i— -2
-4
-6
-1
X
I
S
) >l<
-4
-6
'>= »
f
U \.
"•
-2 -1 0 1 2 2 - 1 0 1 2
(a) (b)
i k Residuals
10
8
- T
—
6
4 —> — -j;
2 — 1—> ^^ X
\
0 ^f
-2 V ^
*
-4
-6
2
-tl - 1
>
0
'
1
X
2
(c)
Figure 7.1 Dependence of the residual of the cloud-point on: (a) polysorbate
(b) propylene glycol, and (c) sucrose invert medium concentrations
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y = Po + £|Vi,
When the residuals are plotted in the order in which the experiments were carried
out, they should be scattered evenly about zero. However, there may be a slope
demonstrating a trend in an uncontrolled factor that is affecting the results of the
experiment. Provided the plan has been randomized, this will affect the estimations
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The experimenter should test for this possibility, especially where there is wide
variation of a response over the experimental domain. If the response range is
relatively narrow, changing by less than a factor of 3 or 4, it is unlikely that the
dependence of the variance on the response will have much effect on the
significance of the factor study or the predicted response surfaces. If the response
varies by a more than an order of magnitude, it is often found that transformation
improves the analysis.
This situation, where the variance of a response function depends on the
value of the response, should be distinguished from the phenomenon where the
variance changes over the experimental region as a function of the underlying
process or formulation variables (see II.3 above). For this, see section IV of this
chapter.
B = (X'WXy'X'WY
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0 0 0 . vvv
The weights must be known or assumed. One method, expensive in time and
resources, is to repeat each experiment several times and to estimate the variance
at each point. If the variance cannot be predicted in any way, this is the only
possible method.
Analysis of the residuals (y; - $,) as a function of the independent variables
Xf may reveal a correlation between the residues and one or more of the variables.
This could indicate an increase in the variance of the experimental results as the
value of the factor increases (which could be the case, for example, if not all levels
of the factor can be controlled with the same precision). One might then suggest a
weighting w, which decreases as the value of the natural variable [/,- increases. An
example might be wi = £/,"', provided all [/, are greater than zero.
Other possibilities are described in the literature, which deal with cases
where the variance depends on the response, or where the errors are correlated, or
where the errors depend on the order in which the experiments are carried out. For
the most part these are outside the scope of this book. However the use of
transformations of response values to correct for a non-constant variance, as well
as non-normality, is widespread, ever since it was proposed by Box and Cox (2),
and this is the subject of the following two sections.
(a) The relative standard deviation may be constant. For example in a solubility
experiment where the measured solubility varied from 0.05 to 10 mg/mL, the
error in the solubility, due perhaps to analytical error and variation in sample
preparation, was approximately constant at 8%. The standard deviation is thus
proportional to the response.
(b) In the measurement of ultraviolet absorbance A, at least part of the error results
from a constant electrical noise ar in the transmittance measurement T. Since
A = Iog107 the standard deviation of the absorbance OA is given by:
or 10-
AT j ' 2.303 T 230.3
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Box and Cox (2, 5) showed that, provided the experimental errors were
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is calculated for each experimental point y for values of X from -2.5 to 2.5. y is the
geometric mean of y. X= 0 is a special case where:
y® = y log, y
The ;y(X) are analysed according the model equation and residual sums of squares.
5X are then calculated for each value of X and plotted against X. Xy*""1 is a
normalising factor in the above equation, which allows for the change of scale on
transformation, so that the sums of squares may be compared. The best value of X
is that for which the sum of squares is a minimum and y may be transformed
accordingly to yK. Note that certain values of X give rise to particular
transformations (shown in table 7.1).
The value of X for the minimum sum of squares is not necessarily exactly
a multiple of 1A. But there will normally be a choice of transformations that are
nearly as good, at least not statistically worse. An approximate 95% confidence
interval may also be calculated (1, 2), and any transform within the confidence
interval may be selected.
The Box-Cox transformation method is valid only for all y > 0. If some
y < 0, a small constant term may be added to all the data to give positive values.
In our experience this is rarely useful when there are negative values, but may be
contemplated when a few responses are equal to zero. A value equal to the smallest
detectable response could be added to each response before transforming.
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To illustrate the method we examine the data of Wehrle, Palmieri, and Stamm (6),
who report the optimized production of theophylline pellets by a simple one-step
process in a high speed Stephan granulator. The formulation consisted of 20%
theophylline drug substance, 30% lactose, and 50% microcrystalline cellulose. It
was granulated with a 15% hydroalcoholic solution of hydroxypropyl-
methylcellulose.
The process was considered to depend on the amount of granulating liquid
added, and on the kneading or granulation time. The responses were the yield of
pellets between 200 and 630 pm, the mean diameter, and the flowability, their
dependences on these factors were investigated. The speed of the granulator was
also varied, but in this example we take only those results obtained at a speed of
1000 rpm and the only response considered is that of yield.
The limits for added liquid were between 190 and 210 rnL and the kneading
time was between 0 and 20 minutes. The domain was therefore not spherical but
cubic. Having carried out the 5 experiments of a 22 factorial design with a centre
point, the authors chose to carry out 4 further experiments to obtain the 9
experiments of a full factorial design at 3 levels, 32 (chapter 5, section VIA). The
design and the experimental results are given in table 7.2.
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Figure 7.2 shows the results of the transformation according to the method of Box
and Cox. The minimum is found at X = 0, corresponding to a logarithmic
transformation. (The sharpness of this minimum is however highly unusual.)
Ln(Sx)
10 :—— :——
Q *-,
•—'
*- /*-
4 ————— / Sx,a=2.5%,v=3 — 3.026
2 u-—-^
; Xmin = 1.746
n
-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 ,0.0, 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
^•min Vnax
3. Analysis of results
The analysis of the variance of the regression is shown on table 7.3. Table 7.4 gives
the estimates of the coefficients of the model:
The yield, transformed back to the original variables, is given as a contour plot in
figure 7.3 (solid lines). The process may be optimized by reference to the diagram,
to give maximum yield.
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0)
^^
01
c
I 10 —
Figure 7.3 shows that the model using the logarithmic transformation of the yield
is better than that using the regression on the untransformed response. The numbers
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D. Non-Power Transformations
Apart from the power transformations, usually selected after a Box-Cox analysis,
certain other transformations may sometimes be useful.
This transformation may be applied to response data which fall within a finite
range. Common examples are percentages between 0 and 100, size data such as a
yield, or the percentage dissolved at a given time. Consider the dissolution testing
of a number of formulations. The formulations may be divided, approximately, into
3 groups with slow, intermediate, and fast dissolution. Those slow to dissolve might
have percentages dissolved clustered between 0 and 20%. For the second group of
intermediate dissolution rate, the percentage dissolved would vary from about 20%
to 80%. If there were just those 2 groups, a power transformation like the one we
have discussed might be adequate. A reciprocal transformation, for example, would
transform them to rates. But if there were a third group with rapid dissolution
clustered near 100%, a different kind of transformation could be useful, one which
spreads out the values near the boundaries:
where y is the response and ya is the lower value for the response (for example 0%)
and y^ is the maximum value (for example 100%). This is known as the logit
transformation.
Here the response is one of a fraction of results that "pass" or "fail". If the fraction
that passes is p then the following transformation to a new variable P may be made
(as suggested by Fisher) before analysis with the chosen model:
sin P = \fp
P = arcsinf//5)
Obviously, P must be between 0 and 1. Unlike the logit transformation, P can also
take those limiting values 0 and 1. Possible examples are (as for the previous
example) the fraction of drug dissolved or liberated at a given time in a dissolution
test or the fraction with a particle size below a given limit.
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A. Introduction
The term quality applied to a product includes all the properties and characteristics
by which it satisfies the needs of those who use it. This concept is not new to
pharmaceutical scientists. They are used to specifications, whether these are in
pharmacopoeias or otherwise. Specifications are fixed and these are designed to
ensure the quality. It is verified after manufacture that the product enters within
these specifications, and so, historically, the concept of quality is tied up with the
concept of control. The elimination of products that do not conform to commercial
specifications will satisfy external clients that the quality criteria are being met, but
this is at a cost. In no way does control directly improve the quality of the product
that is actually being manufactured.
It is necessary to introduce structures, procedures and methods which ensure
quality - that is quality assurance (7). Quality control is only one aspect of this,
although in general it is a necessary verification.
The cost of quality may be broken down into:
•the cost of conformity, which is the cost of prevention plus the cost of
control, and
• the cost of non-conformity, which is the cost of internal plus external
failure.
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E(y) = Tl = I
where the expected (mean) value of the property that is being measured is also the
target value. This alone is not enough, as individual items can still fall outside
specifications. The performance characteristic y is certain to vary, with a variance
o2 representing the variability:
L(y) = K(y-i)2
where K is a constant, see figure 7.4b. The objective of Taguchi and his successors
has been to find ways of minimising this loss in quality.
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*.'
Tolerance
Figure 7.4 Quality loss functions: (a) classical and (b) as suggested by Taguchi.
3. Variability
• control factors, those factors which may normally be controlled and whose
levels may be fixed,
• noise factors, which are difficult, impossible, or very expensive to control.
These may be manufacturing factors (that depend on machines, differences
in speed, non-homogeneous temperature, etc.), to which may be added
external variations in their conditions of use (over which the manufacturer
has no control). We have already seen the effects of such factors in
discussing blocking and block factors.
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B. Experimental Strategies
Rather than rely on chance variation of the noise factors, Taguchi (1) proposes that
at each point of an experimental design set up to study the control factors the noise
factors are also allowed to vary following an experimental design. Suppose, for
example, there are two control factors F, and F2 and two noise factors, F3 and F4.
For each of the noise factors choose two real but extreme levels. One may then
construct a factorial design 22 with the control factors and repeat each of the 4
experiments using each possible combination of levels of the noise factors, F3, F4.
We thus obtain the design of table 7.5.
The design comprising the control factors, F,, F2, on the left hand side of
table 7.5 is known as the inner array and the design formed by the noise factors,
F3, F4, is the outer array. If there are Nt experiments in the inner array and N2 in
the outer array, then there are N = N} x N2 experiments in all.
This may quickly result in a prohibitively large number of runs. Because of
this, Taguchi proposes using only screening designs. Although their R-efficiency
approaches 100%, they do not allow interactions to be calculated. Taguchi generally
neglects interactions, but this may be a source of considerable error.
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Outer array
Inner array -1 +1 -1 +1 F3
F1 T?
^2 -1 -1 +1 +1 F4
-1 -1 yi y'i y"i y'",
+1 -1 y2 y'2 y"2 y'"2
-1 +1 y3 y'3 y"3 y'"3
+1 +1 y4 y'4 y'; y'"4
Before eliminating the possible effect of noise factors on the variability, it may be
interesting to study these effects. One may therefore include these factors in the
design, just as the controlled factors are included (7, 8, 9, 10). This involves two
kinds of design.
The first are designs for factor influence studies (chapter 3). They may be
ones set up for special models, where interactions between the noise factors are not
included, but interactions between noise factors and controlled factors are studied
in detail. However even when the design has not been set up for the express
purpose of studying variability, Box and Meyer (11) and Montgomery (12) have
shown that it is possible to detect factors affecting the variability of the response.
A recent example of the use of this technique in studying a fluid-bed granluation
process has recently been described (13). This used a 2s'1 resolution V design.
Other authors use RSM (chapter 5) with graphical methods to reveal
favourable manufacturing conditions. This is illustrated below.
C. Choice of response
What variables do we use to describe quality? Taguchi (1) takes into account:
(a) the difference between the measured response and its target value,
(b) the variability of the measured response.
The response y has a target value T which is neither zero nor infinity but equal to
a nominal value T0 - "nominal is best" or "target is best". We need to obtain a
performance characteristic as close to T0 as possible, at the same time reducing the
variation. For n experiments at a given setting of the control factors we obtain
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where y" = _
LOO = Ky2
Other authors prefer using the initial response (with possible transformation, as we
saw in chapter 2), the study of the dispersion being carried out on log(s).
Wehrle, Palmieri, and Stamm have demonstrated this method, which they used for
optimizing the production of theophylline pellets in a one-step process in a high
speed granulator (6). The process was considered to depend on the amount of water
added, between 190 and 210 mL, and the kneading time, between 0 and 20 minutes.
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The authors decided to use Taguchi's strategy, presented in section IV.B.2. The
design used was a product matrix between an inner array, which is a complete 32
factorial design, and an outer array, which is a 2' design. The dependence of the
responses, which were the yield of pellets between 200 and 630 pm, and also the
flowability on the control factors was studied by the inner array. The 18
experiments and their results are given in tables 7.2 and 7.6. Note that for the
design in table 7.2, the level of the coded noise factor X3 is -1, throughout.
Table 7.6 Additional Results at 1200 rpm Mixer Speed [data taken from reference
(6) by courtesy of Marcel Dekker, Inc.]
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E (7.4)
A similar calculation to that carried out in section III.C shows that a Box-Cox
(logarithmic) transformation gives an improved fit, but the improvement is not
statistically significant. However it was decided to use this transformation because
of the much improved result demonstrated for the half plan at 1000 rpm, above, and
the fact that the significance of the model with transformation of the data is 2.5%,
and without transformation it is 6.7%.
Table 7.7 gives the analysis of variance of the regression in the two cases
and estimates of the coefficients (logarithmic tranformation) are given in table 7.8.
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4. Graphical analysis
Interesting information can be shown in different ways. Firstly, the above equation
allows response surfaces to be traced, for the yield, on the planes #3 = -1
(speed = 1000 rpm) and x} = +1 (speed = 1200 rpm). These curves are super-
imposed in figure 7.5. The shaded zones correspond to yields greater than 70%
(light shading) and 80% (heavier shading) for the two extremes. Note that the two
response surfaces are identical to those that would have been obtained if the two
32 designs had been treated separately by a second-order model.
o-
190 210 230
Quantity of liquid (ml_)
Figure 7.5 Response surfaces for different mixing speeds, showing region with
over 80% yield (plotted using the coefficients of table 7.8).
This analysis on its own does not allow us to minimize the effects of
variations in the speed. The two curves are shown in perspective in figure 7.6. It
may be seen that the curvature on the X2 axis (kneading time) is modified. The
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100
\
%,
Figure 7.6 Response surfaces for different mixing speeds, showing intersection of
the two surfaces (plotted using the coefficients of table 7.8).
= Po (7.5)
The values of the coefficients, which are not highly significant, are given in table
7.9, and the response surface of Ay is plotted in figure 7.7. As before, we may
conclude that the variation in the yield depends only on the curvature on the X2
axis and the interaction between the two variables.
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20-
0)
*3 10-
O)
c
T3
CD
The criterion for the yield is "larger is better" (equation 7.3). The performance
characteristic ZY:
ZY = -10 log..
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l
Zp = -10 Iog10
210 230
Quantity of liquid (ml_)
Figure 7.8 Response surface for Taguchi performance characteristic Zy, calculated
from the coefficients of table 7.10.
6. Conclusions
As we have just shown, the various approaches do not lead to exactly the same
conclusions. This being said, the predicted optimum conditions are quite close,
whether it is the characteristic response of the product (the yield), the absence of
variability in the yield, or the SIN ratio, that is treated. We superimpose the
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The shaded regions show maximum yields for the two mixer speeds.
The lightly shaded lines represent the points where the yield depends least
on the variations in the speed.
The full lines are the optimum contour lines of the S/N ratio for the yield.
The two circles represent regions where the different objectives may best be
achieved.
20 —
c
E,
0)
o>
c
£ 10 —
(0
<D
o—
190 210 230
Quantity of liquid (ml_)
Figure 7.9 Robust granulation conditions predicted by the different methods.
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Some of these, like the granulation time, may also be control factors. When the
noise and control factors have been chosen, a design can be set up in the control
factors. This should be based on the results already obtained in a process study, if
available. It is then multiplied by a design in the noise variables, generally factorial
or fractional factorial.
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There are 18 terms in the model, so the design is nearly saturated. The 3 fourth-
order terms could probably be left out.
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If the curvature of the response were significant and dependent on the type of
apparatus used, it would have been necessary to use a full second-order design at
each qualitative level of the mixer variable.
3. Closing remarks
References
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Further reading
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