FUTURE OF WIND

Deployment, investment,
technology, grid integration and
socio-economic aspects
Executive summary

A Global Energy Transformation paper

 EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
DECARBONISATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR AND THE REDUCTION OF CARBON
EMISSIONS TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGE IS AT THE HEART OF THE INTERNATIONAL
RENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCY (IRENA)’S ENERGY TRANSFORMATION ROADMAPS.
These roadmaps examine and provide an assertive yet technically and economically
feasible pathway for the deployment of low-carbon technology towards a sustainable and
clean energy future.

IRENA HAS EXPLORED TWO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS TO THE YEAR 2050
AS PART OF THE 2019 EDITION OF ITS GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION REPORT.
The first is an energy pathway set by current and planned policies (Reference Case).
The second is a cleaner climate-resilient pathway based largely on more ambitious,
yet achievable, uptake of renewable energy and energy efficiency measures (REmap
Case), which limits the rise in global temperature to well below 2 degrees and closer to
1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels and is aligned within the envelope of scenarios
presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on
Global Warming of 1.5 °C.

THIS REPORT OUTLINES THE ROLE OF WIND POWER IN THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE
GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM BASED ON IRENA’S CLIMATE-RESILIENT PATHWAY (REMAP
CASE), specifically the growth in wind power deployments that would be needed in the
next three decades to achieve the Paris climate goals.

2
KEY FINDINGS:

n ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF RENEWABLES, COMBINED WITH DEEP

ELECTRIFICATION AND INCREASED ENERGY EFFICIENCY, CAN ACHIEVE OVER
90% OF THE ENERGY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE (CO₂) EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
NEEDED BY 2050 TO SET THE WORLD ON AN ENERGY PATHWAY TOWARDS
MEETING THE PARIS CLIMATE TARGETS. Among all low-carbon technology options,
accelerated deployment of wind power when coupled with deep electrification would
contribute to more than one-quarter of the total emissions reductions needed (nearly
6.3 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO₂) annually) in 2050.

ACHIEVING THE PARIS CLIMATE GOALS WOULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT

n 
ACCELERATION ACROSS A RANGE OF SECTORS AND TECHNOLOGIES. Wind power,
along with solar energy, would lead the way for the transformation of the global
electricity sector. Onshore and offshore wind would generate more than one-third
(35%) of total electricity needs, becoming the prominent generation source by 2050.

SUCH A TRANSFORMATION IS ONLY POSSIBLE BY GREATLY SCALING UP WIND

n 
CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS IN THE NEXT THREE DECADES. This entails increasing
the global cumulative installed capacity of onshore wind power more than three-
fold by 2030 (to 1 787 gigawatts (GW)) and nine-fold by 2050 (to 5 044 GW)
compared to installed capacity in 2018 (542 GW). For offshore wind power, the
global cumulative installed capacity would increase almost ten-fold by 2030
(to 228 GW) and substantially towards 2050, with total offshore installation nearing
1 000 GW by 2050.

THE WIND INDUSTRY WOULD NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR SUCH A SIGNIFICANT

n 
GROWTH IN THE WIND MARKET OVER THE NEXT THREE DECADES. Annual capacity
additions for onshore wind would increase more than four-fold, to more than 200 GW
per year in the next 20 years, compared to 45 GW added in 2018. Even higher growth
would be required in annual offshore wind capacity additions – around a ten-fold
increase, to 45 GW per year by 2050 from 4.5 GW added in 2018.

AT A REGIONAL LEVEL, ASIA WOULD LARGELY DRIVE THE PACE OF WIND

n 
CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS, BECOMING THE WORLD LEADER IN WIND ENERGY.
Asia (mostly China) would continue to dominate the onshore wind power industry,
with more than 50% of global installations by 2050, followed by North America (23%)
and Europe (10%). For offshore wind, Asia would take the lead in the coming decades
with more than 60% of global installations by 2050, followed by Europe (22%) and
North America (16%).

SCALING UP WIND ENERGY INVESTMENTS IS KEY TO ACCELERATING THE GROWTH

n 
OF GLOBAL WIND POWER INSTALLATIONS OVER THE COMING DECADES. This would
imply increasing global average annual onshore wind power investments by more than
two-fold from now until 2030 (USD 146 billion/year) and more than three-fold over
the remaining period to 2050 (USD 211 billion/year) compared to 2018 investments
(USD 67 billion/year). For offshore wind, global average annual investments would
need to increase three-fold from now until 2030 (USD 61 billion/year) and more than
five-fold over the remaining period to 2050 (USD 100 billion/year) compared to 2018
investments (USD 19 billion/year).

3
FUTURE OF WIND

n INCREASING ECONOMIES OF SCALE, MORE COMPETITIVE SUPPLY CHAINS AND

FURTHER TECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE
COSTS OF WIND POWER. Globally, the total installation cost of onshore wind projects
would continue to decline in the next three decades with the average cost falling in the
range of USD 800 to 1 350 per kilowatt (kW) by 2030 and USD 650 to 1 000/kW by
2050, compared to the global-weighted average of USD 1 497/kW in 2018. For offshore
wind projects, the average total installation cost would further drop in coming decades
to between USD 1 700 and 3 200/kW by 2030 and between USD 1 400 and 2 800/kW
by 2050.

The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for onshore wind is already competitive compared
to all fossil fuel generation sources and is set to decline further as installed costs and
performance continue to improve. Globally, the LCOE for onshore wind will continue
to fall from an average of USD 0.06 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2018 to between USD
0.03 to 0.05/kWh by 2030 and between USD 0.02 to 0.03/kWh by 2050. The LCOE of
offshore wind is already competitive in certain European markets (for example, Germany,
the Netherlands with zero-subsidy projects, and lower auction prices). Offshore wind
would be competitive in other markets across the world by 2030, falling in the low range
of costs for fossil fuels (coal and gas). The LCOE of offshore wind would drop from an
average of USD 0.13/kWh in 2018 to an average between USD 0.05 to 0.09/kWh by 2030
and USD 0.03 to 0.07/kWh by 2050.

n O
 NGOING INNOVATIONS AND TECHNOLOGY ENHANCEMENTS TOWARDS LARGER-
CAPACITY TURBINES AS WELL AS INCREASED HUB HEIGHTS AND ROTOR DIAMETERS
HELP IMPROVE YIELDS FOR THE SAME LOCATION. The ongoing increase in wind turbine
size for onshore applications is set to continue, from an average of 2.6 megawatts (MW) in
2018 to 4 to 5 MW for turbines commissioned by 2025. For offshore applications, the largest
turbine size of around 9.5 MW today will soon be surpassed, with expectations that projects
to be commissioned in 2025 would comprise of turbines with ratings of 12 MW and above
(although some legacy projects with long lead times may have lower ratings). Research and
development will likely lead to a potential to increase this to 15 to 20 MW in a decade or two.

The combination of improved wind turbine technologies, deployment of higher hub

heights and longer blades with larger swept areas leads to increased capacity factors
for a given wind resource. For onshore wind plants, global weighted average capacity
factors would increase from 34% in 2018 to a range of 30% to 55% in 2030 and 32%
to 58% in 2050. For offshore wind farms, even higher progress would be achieved,
with capacity factors in the range of 36% to 58% in 2030 and 43% to 60% in 2050,
compared to an average of 43% in 2018.

TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN WIND TURBINE FOUNDATIONS ARE A KEY

n 
FACTOR ENABLING THE ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF OFFSHORE WIND,
PERMITTING ACCESS TO BETTER WIND RESOURCES. Floating foundations are
potentially a “game-changing” technology to effectively exploit abundant wind potential
in deeper waters and thus could lead the way for rapid future growth in the offshore
wind power market. By 2030, industry experts estimate that around 5 GW to 30 GW of
floating offshore capacity could be installed worldwide and that, based on the pace of
developments across various regions, floating wind farms could cover around 5% to 15%
of the global offshore wind installed capacity (almost 1 000 GW) by 2050.

4
 EXECUTIV
KEY
E S FINDINGS
UMMARY

TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS ACCOMPANIED BY ENABLING MARKET CONDITIONS

n 
AND INNOVATIVE BUSINESS MODELS, ARE ESSENTIAL TO PREPARE FUTURE
POWER GRIDS TO INTEGRATE RISING SHARES OF WIND POWER. To effectively
manage large-scale variable renewable energy sources, flexibility must be harnessed
in all sectors of the energy system, from power generation to transmission and
distribution systems, storage (both electrical and thermal) and increasingly flexible
demand (demand side management and sector coupling). Globally, to integrate
60% variable renewable generation (35% from wind) by 2050 as is envisioned in the
REmap Case, average annual investments in grids, generation adequacy and some
flexibility measures (e.g. storage) would need to rise by more than one-quarter to
USD 374 billion/year, compared to investments made in electricity networks and
battery storage in 2018 of USD 297 billion/yr.

IF ACCOMPANIED BY SOUND POLICIES, THE TRANSFORMATION CAN BRING SOCIO-

n 
ECONOMIC BENEFITS. The wind industry can employ 3.74 million people by 2030 and
more than 6 million people by 2050, a figure nearly three times higher and five times
higher respectively than the 1.16 million jobs in 2018. To maximise outcomes of the
energy transition, however, a holistic policy framework is needed. Deployment policies
will need to co-ordinate and harmonise with integration and enabling policies. Under
the enabling policy umbrella, particular focus is needed on industrial, labour, financial,
education and skills policies to maximise the transition benefits. Education and skills
policies can allow for the retention and reallocation of existing expertise in the oil and
gas sector to support the installation of offshore wind foundation structures. Similarly,
sound industrial and labour policies that build upon domestic supply chains can enable
income and employment growth by leveraging existing economic activities in support of
wind industry development.

UNLEASHING THE MASSIVE POTENTIAL OF WIND IS CRUCIAL TO ACHIEVE THE PARIS

n 
CLIMATE TARGETS. This is only possible by mitigating the existing barriers at different
scales (technology, economic, socio-political and environmental) that could hinder the
deployment of wind capacities in the next three decades. Grid access, public acceptance,
planning procedures and planning uncertainties, economies of scale, access to finance,
subsidies for traditional energy are among the key barriers. Mitigating the existing barriers
immediately, through a range of supportive policies and implementation measures including
innovative business models, financial instruments is vital to boost future deployment of
wind capacities to enable the transition to a low-carbon, sustainable energy future.

5
FUTURE OF WIND

Figure ES 1. Wind roadmap to 2050: tracking progress of key wind energy indicators
to achieve the global energy transformation.

ON/OFF
2010 2018 2030 2050
TRACK

CO2 EMISSIONS (ENERGY-RELATED) AND REDUCTION POTENTIAL BY WIND POWER

Energy-related CO2 emissions under

current plans and planned policies
(Reference Case) (Gt CO2 /yr)
29.7 34.5 35 33.1

Energy-related CO2 emissions under

IRENA‘s climate resilient pathway
(REmap Case) (Gt CO2 /yr)
29.7 34.5 24.9 9.8 Off track

Avoided emissions due to

accelerated deployment of
wind power coupled with deep
electrification (Gt CO2/yr)
6.3

REMAP CASE ON/OFF

2010 2018
2030 2050 TRACK

WIND POWER IN TOTAL GENERATION MIX

Onshore and offshore

wind generation share (%) 1.7% 6% 21% 35%
Progress

TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY

Onshore wind (GW)

Off track
178 542 1 787 5 044

Offshore wind (GW)

3 23 228 1 000 Progress

ANNUAL DEPLOYMENT*

Onshore wind (GW/yr) 147 202

30 45 Off track

Offshore wind (GW/yr)

28 45
0.9 4.5 Progress

TOTAL INSTALLATION COST

Onshore wind (USD/kW)

6 1 913 1 497 800 – 1350 650 – 1000 On track
(average) (average) (average range)(average range)
 Offshore wind (GW)
Energy-related CO2 emissions under
IRENA‘s climate resilient pathway 3 23 228 1 000 Progress EXECUTIV
KEY
E S FINDINGS
UMMARY
(REmap Case) (Gt CO2 /yr)
29.7 34.5 24.9 9.8 Off track
ANNUAL DEPLOYMENT*
Avoided emissions due to
accelerated deployment of
wind power coupled with deep 6.3
202
electrification
Onshore wind(Gt (GW/yr)
CO2/yr)
45 147
30 Off track

REMAP CASE ON/OFF

2010 2018
Offshore wind (GW/yr) 2030 2050
45 TRACK
0.9 4.5 28 Progress

TOTALPOWER
WIND INSTALLATION COST
IN TOTAL GENERATION MIX

Onshore and offshore

Onshore wind (USD/kW)
wind generation share (%) 1.7 %
1 913
6%
1 497
21 %
800 – 1350
35 %
650 – 1000 On track
Progress
(average) (average) (average range)(average range)

TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY

Offshore wind (USD/kW)
4 572 4 353 1 700 – 3 200 1 400 – 2 800 Progress
(average) (average) (average range)(average range)

Onshore wind (GW)

LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY (LCOE) Off track
178 542 1 787 5 044

Onshore wind (USD/kWh)

Offshore wind (GW)
0.08 0.06 0.03 – 0.05 0.02 – 0.03
3
(average) 23
(average) 228 1 000
(average range)(average range)
On track
Progress

ANNUAL DEPLOYMENT*
Offshore wind (USD/kWh)
0.16 0.13 0.05 – 0.09 0.03 – 0.07 Progress
(average) (average) (average range)(average range)

Onshore wind (GW/yr) 147 202

AVERAGE ANNUAL INVESTMENT 30 45 Off track

211
146
Offshore
Onshore wind
wind (USD (GW/yr)
billion/yr) 57 67 45
0.9 4.5 28 Progress
Off track

TOTAL INSTALLATION COST 100

Offshore wind (USD billion/yr)
61
4.2 19.4 Progress

Onshore wind (USD/kW)

CAPACITY FACTORS 1 913 1 497 800 – 1350 650 – 1000 On track
(average) (average) (average range)(average range)

30 – 55 32 – 58
OffshoreOnshore
wind (USD/kW)
wind (%)
27 34
4 572 4 353 1 700 – 3 200 1 400 – 2 800 Progress
Progress
(average)
(average) (average) (average
(average) range)(average
(average range)(average range)
range)

LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY (LCOE) 43 36 – 58 43 – 60

Offshore wind (%)
38
(average) (average) (average range)(average range)
On track

Onshore wind (USD/kWh)

EMPLOYMENT 0.08 0.06 0.03 – 0.05 0.02 – 0.03 On track
(average) (average) (average range)(average range)

Offshore
Onshore and wind
offshore (USD/kWh)
wind (million) 0.16 0.13 0.05 – 0.09 0.03 – 0.07 Progress
(average) (average) (average range)(average range) Off track
0.75** 1.12 3.74 6.06
AVERAGE ANNUAL INVESTMENT
* The data includes new capacity additions and replacement of end-of-lifetime capacity
**The data denotes wind sector jobs by 2012
211
146
Onshore wind (USD billion/yr) 57 67
Off track
This is a summary of IRENA (2019), Future of wind: Deployment, investment, technology, grid integration and socio-economic aspects
(A Global Energy Transformation paper), International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.

 (ISBN 978-92-9260-155-3)
www.irena.org Copyright © IRENA 2019