STA102

OLABISI ONABANJO UNIVERSITY, AGO IWOYE
OGUN STATE
FACULTY OF SCIENCE
DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
2019/2020 B.Sc. Rain Semester
LECTURE NOTE
COURSE CODE: STA102
COURSE TITLE: PROBABILITY I
NUMBER OF UNIT: 2 UNITS
COURSE DURATION: 2 HOURS PER WEEK
COURSE COORDINATOR: MR. A.O. OLASUPO (ahmed.olasupo@oouagoiwoye.edu.ng)
COURSE REQUIREMENTS
This is a compulsory course for all Geology and Statistics students, students are
expected to have a minimum of 75% attendance to be able to write the final
examination.
NOTE
AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY
1. Let S denote a sample for an experiment P(S) = 1

2. P(A) ≥ 0 ⩝ event A. Let A1 , A 2 … be a sequence of mutually exclusive
event, then P [ A 1 U A 2 … ]=P [ A 1 ]+ P [ A 2 ]+ …
LAW OF PROBABILITY
1. If A∧A 1 are complementary event in a sample space (S), the probability of

A. i.e. P ( A 1 )=1−P ( A ).
Complementary Event: If two event A1 and A12 are said to be complementary
if they are mutually exclusive i.e. P ( A 1 ) + P=1.
2. Probability of Null set: P ( Ø ) = 0, therefore S and Ø are mutually exclusive
event. S U Ø=S .
P ( S )=P ( S ) + P ( Ø )
P ( S )−P ( S )=P ( Ø )
0=0
3. If A and B are event in a sample space S and A is a subset of B. then,
P ( A ) ≤ P ( B ) 0 ≤ P ( A ) ≤1
If A and B are any two event in a sample space, the probability of
A U B=P ( A ) + P ( B )−P ( A n B ) if P ( A n B )=0 .
Then, P ( A U B ) =P ( A )+ P ( B )
MULTIPLICATION RULE
The probability event will occur jointly in the product of probabilities of each
event. If A and B are independent, then, P ( A )∧P ( B )=P ( A ) X P ( B )
Example 1
What is the probability that a card drawn at random from a well shuffled standard
pack will be either spade or Club.
Solution
Spade = 13, Club = 13, n = 52

13 1
P ( Spade )= =
52 4
13 1
P ( Club )= =
52 4
1 1 1
P ( S )+ P ( C ) = + =
4 4 2
Example 2
Find the probability of getting three heads in three random tosses of a balanced
coin.
Solution
1
The probability of each toss is 2
1 1 1 1
Multiplying the 3 probabilities gives 2 X 2 X 2 = 8
FACTORIALS
Factorial is a subset multiplication operator. The factorial sign ᴉ indicates a special

repeated multiplication which is used frequently in statistical applications.
For example 3 ᴉ=3 X 2 X 1=6 also 4 ᴉ=4 X 3 X 2 X 1=24
In general n ᴉ=n X n−1 X n−2 … 3 X 2 X 1
When n is an integer.
The operator П is used to indicate a multiplication of a series of numbers. The

operator Ʃ is used to indicate a summation of a series of numbers
Example
5
∏ y i= y 1 X y 2 X y 3 X y 4 X y 5
i=1
∑ yi =¿ y 1 + y 2 + y 3 + y 4 + y 5
i=1
ASSIGNMENT
1. Find the probability of getting

i. Two heads, one tail
ii. Three tail
iii. Two tail, 1 head
iv. One tail, two head in three random tosses of a balanced coin.
2
2. Given that y 1=2 , y 2=4. Solve, ∏ (( y i +2 ) 2)

i=1
4
3. Given that x 1=1 , x 2=2 , x 3=3 , x 4=4 , . Solve, ∑ ( 2 x i +8 )

3
i=1
Probability Distribution of Random Variables
Let X be a random variable which can take on values x 1 , x 2 ,. . . , x n where n can be

infinity, and let p { X =xi }=P ( xi ) be the probability of X taking the value x i, then a list
of pairs ( x i , P(x i )) for all i is called the probability distribution of X.
Probability mass function
The function defined by P ( x )=P(X =x) which assigns a probability measure to

every possible value x of a discrete random variable X is referred to as the
probability mass function of X. it has the following properties:
i. p ( x i ) ≥ 0 for all i
n
ii. ∑ P (X i )=1
i=1
Example
A coin is tossed twice. Define the random variable X as the number of heads.
i. Generate the probability distribution of X.

ii. Check whether the probabilities are from a true pmf
Solution
i. HH HT TH TT
X 0 1 2
P(x) 1 2 1
4 4 4
n
ii. ∑ P ( x i )=¿ 41 + 24 + 14 =1 ¿ Satisfying the second property. This confirms that
i=1
they are from a true pmf.
Example
A die is tossed twice. Define X as the sum of the numbers appearing in the two
tosses.
i. Generate the distribution of X

ii. Find P(X > 9)
iii. P(X<2)
iv. P(4≤X<7)
Solution
i. Tosses of a die
X Y 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x) 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
3 2 1 1
ii. P ( x> 9 )=P ( x ≥ 10 ) = + + =
36 36 36 36
iii. P ( x< 2 )=0 Probability of impossible event = 0
3 4 5 1
iv. P ( 4 ≤ X <7 )=P ( 4 ≤ X ≤ 6 ) =¿ + + =
36 36 36 3
Probability Density Function (pdf) of x
A function f(x), satisfying the two properties given below, which leads to the
probabilities of a continuous random variable X is called the probability density
function (pdf) of X.
The pdf of X has the following properties
i. f ( x ) ≥ 0 for all x
∞
ii. ∫ f ( x ) dx=1
−∞
Example
The pdf of a certain random variable X is given as

2
f ( x )=c x ,0 ≤ x ≤ 1
i. Obtain the value of c

1
ii. P(0 ≤ X ≤ )
2
Solution
1
1. ∫ c x 2 dx =1
0
1
c ∫ x dx =1
2
c 31 C 3 3
[x ]0= [ 1 −0 ]=1
3 3
c=3
1
Answer = 2 (Assignment)

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OLABISI ONABANJO UNIVERSITY, AGO IWOYE

1. Let S denote a sample for an experiment P(S) = 1

1. If A∧A 1 are complementary event in a sample space (S), the probability of

Spade = 13, Club = 13, n = 52

Factorial is a subset multiplication operator. The factorial sign ᴉ indicates a special

For example 3 ᴉ=3 X 2 X 1=6 also 4 ᴉ=4 X 3 X 2 X 1=24

In general n ᴉ=n X n−1 X n−2 … 3 X 2 X 1

The operator П is used to indicate a multiplication of a series of numbers. The

1. Find the probability of getting

2. Given that y 1=2 , y 2=4. Solve, ∏ (( y i +2 ) 2)

3. Given that x 1=1 , x 2=2 , x 3=3 , x 4=4 , . Solve, ∑ ( 2 x i +8 )

Probability Distribution of Random Variables

Let X be a random variable which can take on values x 1 , x 2 ,. . . , x n where n can be

The function defined by P ( x )=P(X =x) which assigns a probability measure to

i. Generate the probability distribution of X.

they are from a true pmf.

i. Generate the distribution of X

Probability Density Function (pdf) of x

The pdf of X has the following properties

The pdf of a certain random variable X is given as

i. Obtain the value of c

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