SECTION 7.

5 • Introduction to Probability 321

SECTION

7.5 Introduction to Probability

OBJECTIVE A To calculate the probability of simple events

Point of Interest A weather forecaster estimates that there is a 75% chance of rain. A state lottery director
1
It was dice playing that led claims that there is a chance of winning a prize in a new game offered by the lottery.
Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier 9
de Mere, to ask Blaise
Each of these statements involves uncertainty to some extent. The degree of uncertainty
Pascal, a French is called probability. For the statements above, the probability of rain is 75%, and the
mathematician, to figure out 1
probability of winning a prize in the new lottery game is .
the probability of throwing 9
two sixes. Pascal and Pierre
Fermat solved the problem, A probability is determined from an experiment, which is any activity that has an
and their explorations led to observable outcome. Examples of experiments include
the birth of probability theory.
Tossing a coin and observing whether it lands heads up or tails up
Interviewing voters to determine their preference for a political candidate
Drawing a card from a standard deck of 52 cards
All the possible outcomes of an experiment are called the sample space of the
experiment. The outcomes are listed between braces. For example:

1 The number cube shown at the left is rolled once. Any of the numbers from 1 to 6 could
show on the top of the cube. The sample space is
2 3 {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A fair coin is tossed once. (A fair coin is one for which heads and tails have an equal
chance of landing face up.) If H represents “heads up” and T represents “tails up,” then
the sample space is
{H, T}
An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment. For the experiment of rolling the
six-sided cube described above, some possible events are
The number is even: {2, 4, 6}
The number is a multiple of 3: {3, 6}
The number is less than 10: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Note that in the last case, the event is the entire sample space.

HOW TO • 1 The spinner at the left is spun once. Assume that the spinner does
1 2 not come to rest on a line.
a. What is the sample space?
The arrow could come to rest on any one of the four sectors.
3 4 The sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4}.
b. List the outcomes in the event that the spinner points to an odd number.
{1, 3}

In discussing experiments and events, it is convenient to refer to the favorable outcomes

of an experiment. These are the outcomes of an experiment that satisfy the requirements
of a particular event.
322 CHAPTER 7 • Statistics and Probability

For instance, consider the experiment of rolling a fair die once. The sample space is
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
and one possible event would be rolling a number that is divisible by 3. The outcomes of
the experiment that are favorable to the event are 3 and 6:
{3, 6}
The outcomes of the experiment of tossing a fair coin are equally likely. Either one of the
outcomes is just as likely as the other. If a fair coin is tossed once, the probability of a
1 1
head is , and the probability of a tail is . Both events are equally likely. The theoretical
2 2
probability formula, given below, applies to experiments for which the outcomes are
equally likely.

Theoretical Probability Formula

The theoretical probability of an event is a fraction with the number of favorable outcomes of the
experiment in the numerator and the total number of possible outcomes in the denominator.

number of favorable outcomes

Probability of an event 苷
number of possible outcomes

A probability of an event is a number from 0 to 1 that tells us how likely it is that this
outcome will happen.

A probability of 0 means that the event is impossible.

1 The probability of getting a heads when rolling the die shown at the left is 0.
2 3
A probability of 1 means that the event must happen.
The probability of getting either heads or tails when tossing a coin is 1.

1
A probability of means that it is expected that the outcome will happen 1 in every
4
4 times the experiment is performed.

Take Note HOW TO • 2 Each of the letters of the word TENNESSEE is written on a card,
The phrase at random and the cards are placed in a hat. If one card is drawn at random from the hat, what
means that each card has an is the probability that the card has the letter E on it?
equal chance of being drawn.
Count the possible outcomes of the experiment.
There are 9 letters in TENNESSEE.
There are 9 possible outcomes of the experiment.
Count the number of outcomes of the experiment that are favorable to the event that
T
S a card with the letter E on it is drawn.
E There are 4 cards with an E on them.
S
N Use the probability formula.
E
N number of favorable outcomes 4
E Probability of the event 苷 苷
number of possible outcomes 9
E
4
The probability of drawing an E is .
9
 SECTION 7.5 • Introduction to Probability 323

As just discussed, calculating the probability of an event requires counting the number of
possible outcomes of an experiment and the number of outcomes that are favorable to the
event. One way to do this is to list the outcomes of the experiment in a systematic way.
Using a table is often helpful.

When two dice are rolled, the sample space for the experiment can be recorded
systematically as in the following table.

Point of Interest Possible Outcomes from Rolling Two Dice

Romans called a die that was
marked on four faces a talus, (1, 1) (2, 1) (3, 1) (4, 1) (5, 1) (6, 1)
which meant “anklebone.”
The anklebone was
(1, 2) (2, 2) (3, 2) (4, 2) (5, 2) (6, 2)
considered an ideal die
because it is roughly a
rectangular solid and it has no (1, 3) (2, 3) (3, 3) (4, 3) (5, 3) (6, 3)
marrow, so loose anklebones
from sheep were more likely (1, 4) (2, 4) (3, 4) (4, 4) (5, 4) (6, 4)
than other bones to be lying
around after the wolves had
(1, 5) (2, 5) (3, 5) (4, 5) (5, 5) (6, 5)
left their prey.

(1, 6) (2, 6) (3, 6) (4, 6) (5, 6) (6, 6)

HOW TO • 3 Two dice are rolled once. Calculate the probability that the sum of
the numbers on the two dice is 7.

Use the table above to count the number of possible outcomes of the experiment.

There are 36 possible outcomes.

Count the number of outcomes of the experiment that are favorable to the event that
a sum of 7 is rolled.

There are 6 favorable outcomes: (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), and (6, 1).

Use the probability formula.

number of favorable outcomes 6 1

Probability of the event 苷 苷 苷
number of possible outcomes 36 6
1
The probability of a sum of 7 is .
6

The probabilities calculated above are theoretical probabilities. The calculation of a

theoretical probability is based on theory—for example, that either side of a coin is
equally likely to land face up or that each of the six sides of a fair die is equally likely to
land face up. Not all probabilities arise from such assumptions.

An empirical probability is based on observations of certain events. For instance, a

weather forecast of a 75% chance of rain is an empirical probability. From historical
records kept by the weather bureau, when a similar weather pattern existed, rain occurred
75% of the time. It is theoretically impossible to predict the weather, and only
observations of past weather patterns can be used to predict future weather conditions.
324 CHAPTER 7 • Statistics and Probability

Empirical Probability Formula

The empirical probability of an event is the ratio of the number of observations of the event to the
total number of observations.
number of observations of the event
Probability of an event 苷
total number of observations

For example, suppose the records of an insurance company show 927

that of 2549 claims for theft filed by policy holders, 927 were claims ⬇ 0.36
2549
for more than $5000. The empirical probability that the next claim
for theft that this company receives will be a claim for more than
$5000 is the ratio of the number of claims for over $5000 to the total
number of claims.

The probability is approximately 0.36.

EXAMPLE • 1 YOU TRY IT • 1

There are three choices, a, b, or c, for each of the A professor writes three true/false questions for a
two questions on a multiple-choice quiz. If the quiz. If the professor randomly chooses which
instructor randomly chooses which questions will questions will have a true answer and which will
have an answer of a, b, or c, what is the probability have a false answer, what is the probability that the
that the two correct answers on this quiz will be test will have 2 true questions and 1 false question?
the same letter?

Strategy Your strategy

To find the probability:
• List the outcomes of the experiment in a
systematic way.
• Count the number of possible outcomes of
the experiment.
• Count the number of outcomes of the experiment
that are favorable to the event that the two correct
answers on the quiz will be the same letter.
• Use the probability formula.

Solution Your solution In-Class Examples

Possible outcomes: (a, a) (b, a) (c, a) 3 1. A coin is tossed three times.
(a, b) (b, b) (c, b) 8 What is the probability that the
(a, c) (b, c) (c, c) outcomes of the tosses are
exactly TTH?
There are 9 possible outcomes. 1
8
There are 3 favorable outcomes: 2. Two dice are rolled. What is the
(a, a), (b, b), (c, c) probability that the sum of the
dots on the upward faces is 4?
number of favorable outcomes
Probability 苷 1
number of possible outcomes 12
3 1
 
9 3
The probability that the two correct answers will be
1
the same letter is .
3
Solution on pp. S19–S20
 SECTION 7.5 • Introduction to Probability 325
Suggested Assignment
Exercises 1–21, odds More challenging problem: Exercise 22
7.5 EXERCISES
OBJECTIVE A To calculate the probability of simple events

1. A coin is tossed four times. List all the possible outcomes of the experiment as a
sample space. {(HHHH), (HHHT), (HHTT), (HHTH), (HTTT), (HTHH), (HTTH), (HTHT),
(TTTT), (TTTH), (TTHH), (THHH), (TTHT), (THHT), (THTT), (THTH)}
 2. Three cards—one red, one green, and one blue—are to be arranged in a stack.
Using R for red, G for green, and B for blue, list all the different stacks that can be
Red Green Blue
formed. (Some computer monitors are called RGB monitors for the colors red,
green, and blue.)
RGB, RBG, GRB, GBR, BRG, BGR
3. A tetrahedral die is one with four triangular sides. The sides show the numbers from
1 to 4. Say two tetrahedral dice are rolled. List all the possible outcomes of the

2
3
experiment as a sample space. {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4)} 1
 4. A coin is tossed and then a die is rolled. List all the possible outcomes of the
experiment as a sample space. [To get you started, (H, 1) is one of the possible Tetrahedral die
outcomes.]
{(H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6)}
5. The spinner at the right is spun once. Assume that the spinner does not come to rest
8 1
on a line.
7 2
a. What is the sample space? {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
b. List the outcomes in the event that the number is less than 4. {1, 2, 3} 6 3
5 4

 6. A coin is tossed four times. Find the probability of the given event.
a. The outcomes are exactly in the order HHTT. (See Exercise 1.)
b. The outcomes consist of two heads and two tails. 1 3 1 Quick Quiz
a. b. c.
c. The outcomes consist of one head and three tails. 16 8 4 1. A coin is tossed three
times. What is the
 7. Two dice are rolled. Find the probability of the given outcome. probability that the
outcomes of the tosses
a. The sum of the dots on the upward faces is 5. 1
b. The sum of the dots on the upward faces is 15. a. b. 0 consist of one tail and
9 two heads?
c. The sum of the dots on the upward faces is less than 15. 1 3
c. 1 d.
d. The sum of the dots on the upward faces is 2. 36 8

8. A dodecahedral die has 12 sides numbered from 1 to 12. The die is rolled once. Find
the probability of the given outcome.
a. The upward face shows an 11. 1 1

Tony Freeman/PhotoEdit, Inc.

a. b.
b. The upward face shows a 5. 12 12

 9. A dodecahedral die has 12 sides numbered from 1 to 12. The die is rolled once. Find
the probability of the given outcome. 1
a. The upward face shows a number that is divisible by 4. 4
b. The upward face shows a number that is a multiple of 3. 1 Dodecahedral die
3
 10. Two tetrahedral dice are rolled (see Exercise 3). 3
a. What is the probability that the sum on the upward faces is 4? 16 2. Two dice are rolled. What
b. What is the probability that the sum on the upward faces is 6? 3 is the probability that the
sum of the dots on the
16 upward faces is less
11. Two dice are rolled. Which has the greater probability, throwing a sum of 10 or
than 4?
throwing a sum of 5? 1
Throwing a sum of 5 12
 12. Two dice are rolled once. Calculate the probability that the two numbers on the dice
are equal. 1
6
 Selected exercises available online at www.webassign.net/brookscole.
 326 CHAPTER 7 • Statistics and Probability

13. Each of the letters of the word MISSISSIPPI is written on a card, and the cards are
placed in a hat. One card is drawn at random from the hat. 4
a. What is the probability that the card has the letter I on it? 11
b. Which is greater, the probability of choosing an S or that of choosing a P?
Choosing an S
14. Use the situation described in Exercise 12. Suppose you decide to test your result
empirically by rolling a pair of dice 30 times and recording the results. Which num-
ber of “doubles” would confirm the result found in Exercise 12?
(i) 1 (ii) 5 (iii) 6 (iv) 30 (ii)

15. Use the situation described in Exercise 13. What probability does the fraction
1
represent?
11
The probability that the card has the letter M on it
16. Three blue marbles, four green marbles, and five red marbles are placed in a
bag. One marble is chosen at random. 1
a. What is the probability that the marble chosen is green? 3
b. Which is greater, the probability of choosing a blue marble or that of choos-
ing a red marble? Choosing a red marble

 17. Which has the greater probability, drawing a jack, queen, or king from a deck
of cards or drawing a spade?
Drawing a spade
 18. In a history class, a set of exams earned the following grades: 4 A’s, 8 B’s,
22 C’s, 10 D’s, and 3 F’s. If a single student’s exam is chosen from this class,
what is the probability that it received a B? 8
47
 19. A survey of 95 people showed that 37 preferred (to using a credit card) a cash dis-
count of 2% if an item was purchased using cash or a check. Judging on the basis
of this survey, what is the empirical probability that a person prefers a cash dis-
count? Write the answer as a decimal rounded to the nearest hundredth.
0.39
20. A survey of 725 people showed that 587 had a group health insurance plan where
they worked. On the basis of this survey, what is the empirical probability that an
employee has a group health insurance plan? Write the answer as a decimal round-
ed to the nearest hundredth.
0.81
 21. A television cable company surveyed some of its customers and
Number
asked them to rate the cable service as excellent, satisfactory, aver- Quality of Service
Who Voted
age, unsatisfactory, or poor. The results are recorded in the table at
the right. What is the probability that a customer who was surveyed Excellent 98
rated the service as satisfactory or excellent? 185 Satisfactory 87
377 Average 129
Unsatisfactory 42
Poor 21

Applying the Concepts

2
22. If the spinner at the right is spun once, is each of the numbers 1 through 5 equally 1
likely? Why or why not? 3
5
5
23. Why can the probability of an event not be ? 4
3

For answers to the Writing exercises, please see the Appendix in the Instructor’s Resource Binder that accompanies this textbook.