Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A Level) Unit Test 2: Probability

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

1a M1 1.1b 2nd
= Calculate
probabilities from
= 0.4 A1 1.1b relative frequency
tables and real
data.

(2)

1b M1 3.1a 4th
= Understand set
notation.
= 0.864 A1 1.1b

(2)

1c M1 2.1 4th
P(S A) = = 0.136 ≠ P(S) × P(A) = =0.163… Understand and
use the definition
So, S and A are not statistically independent. A1 2.4 of independence
in probability
calculations.

(2)

1d B and C are not mutally exclusive B1 2.2a 3rd

Understand and
Being in team C does not exclude the possibility of winning a B1 2.4 use the definition
bronze medal of mutually
exclusive in
probability
calculations.

(2)

1e M1 3.1b 5th
= Calculate
conditional
= 0.424 A1 1.1b probabilities
using formulae.

(2)

(10 marks)

Notes

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 Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A Level) Unit Test 2: Probability

© Pearson Education Ltd 2017. Copying permitted for purchasing institution only. This material is not copyright free 2
 Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A Level) Unit Test 2: Probability

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

2a B1 2.5 3rd
Draw and use tree
diagrams with
three branches
and/or three
levels.

Let N~ new tyre and T~ tracking

P(N) = 0.33 and P(T) = 0.67 B1 1.1b
0.7, 0.3, 0.04 and 0.96 B1 1.1b
(3)

2b P(exactly one defect) = 0.33 × 0.3 + 0.67 × 0.04 M1 3.1b 5th

Understand the
= 0.1258 A1 1.1b language and
notation of
conditional
probability.
(2)

2c 1 − P(no defects) =1− 0.67 × 0.96 × 0.65 M1 3.1b 5th

Understand the
= 0.5819… awrt 0.582 (3 d.p.) A1 1.1b language and
notation of
conditional
probability.

(2)

2d To have their cars checked regularly as there is over a 50 % B1 3.2a 5th

chance they need new tyres, tracking or brake pads. Understand the
language and
notation of
conditional
probability.
(1)

(8 marks)

Notes

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 Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A Level) Unit Test 2: Probability

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

3a M1 3.1a 4th
Calculate
P(E'|F') = or probabilities using
set notation.
A1 1.1b
= or 0.783 (3 s.f.)

(2)

3b P(E) × P(F) = 0.25 × 0.4 = 0.1 ≠ P(E F) = 0.12 M1 2.1 4th

Understand and
So, E and F are not statistically independent. A1 2.4 use the definition
of independence
in probability
calculations.

(2)

3c B1 2.5 3rd
Understand and
use Venn
diagrams for
multiple events.

Use of independence and all values in G correct. M1A1 3.1a

All values correct. M1A1 1.1b
1.1b
1.1b

(5)

3d P([F G]') = 0.13 + 0.38 M1 3.1a 4th

Calculate
= 0.51 A1 1.1b probabilities using
set notation.

(2)

(11 marks)

Notes

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 Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A Level) Unit Test 2: Probability

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 Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A Level) Unit Test 2: Probability

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

4a B1 2.5 3rd
B1 1.1b Draw and use tree
diagrams with
B1 1.1b three branches
and/or three
levels.

Let F ~ faulty
(3)

4b P(B F') = 0.35 × 0.98 M1 1.1b 5th

Understand and
= 0.343 A1 1.1b calculate
conditional
probabilities in
the context of tree
diagrams.
(2)

4c P(F) = 0.4 × 0.05 + 0.35 × 0.02 + 0.25 × 0.03 M1 1.1b 5th

Understand and
= 0.0345 A1 1.1b calculate
conditional
probabilities in
the context of tree
diagrams.
(2)

4d M1 3.1b 5th
Calculate
P(C'|F) = = = A1ft 1.2
conditional
probabilities using
A1 1.1b
formulae.
0.7826... or (accept awrt 0.783)
(3)
(10 marks)

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 Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A Level) Unit Test 2: Probability

Notes

Pearson
Progression Step
Q Scheme Marks AOs
and Progress
descriptor

5a B1 2.5 2nd
B1 1.1b Draw and use
simple tree
B1 1.1b diagrams with two
branches and two
levels.

T = hand assignments in on time, D = start assignments on the

day they are issued

(3)

5bi P(T D) = P(T|D) × P(D) M1 3.1b 5th

Understand and
A1 1.1b calculate
= conditional
probabilities in
the context of tree
= or 0.33 diagrams.

(2)

5bii M1 3.1b 5th

Understand and
calculate
conditional
probabilities in
the context of tree
diagrams.

A1 1.1b
or 0.841…

M1 1.1b

P(T'' D') =

A1 1.1b
or 0.0633… (accept awrt 0.0633)

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 Mark scheme Statistics Year 2 (A Level) Unit Test 2: Probability

(4)

5c M1 2.1 4th
P(T D) = ≠ P(T) × P(D) = Understand and
use the definition
So, T and D are not statistically independent. A1 2.4 of independence
in probability
calculations.

(2)

(11 marks)

Notes
5bii Alternative solution
P(T'' D') = 1 − P(T D)

P(T D) =

P(T'' D') = 1 − =

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