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Bba005 Energy
Bba005 Energy
ENERGY CONSERVATION
.ENERGY SURVEYING & AUDITING
Energy Audit is the key to a systematic approach for decision-making in the area
of energy management. It attempts to balance the total energy inputs with its use, and serves to
identify all the energy streams in a facility. It quantifies energy usage according to its discrete
functions. Industrial energy audit is an effective tool in defining and pursuing comprehensive
energy management programme.
In any industry, the three top operating expenses are often found to be energy (both
electrical and thermal), labour and materials. If one were to relate to the manageability of the
cost or potential cost savings in each of the above components, energy would invariably emerge
as a top ranker, and thus energy management function constitutes a strategic area for cost
reduction.
Energy Audit will help to understand more about the ways energy and fuel are used in
any industry, and help in identifying the areas where waste can occur and where scope for
improvement exists. The Energy Audit would give a positive orientation to the energy cost
reduction, preventive maintenance and quality control programmes which are vital for
production and utility activities. Such an audit programme will help to keep focus on variations
which occur in the energy costs, availability and reliability of supply of energy, decide on
appropriate energy mix, identify energy conservation technologies, retrofit for energy
conservation equipment etc.In general, Energy Audit is the translation of conservation ideas into
realities, by lending technically feasible solutions with economic and other organizational
considerations within a specified time frame. The primary objective of Energy Audit is to
determine ways to reduce energy consumption per unit of product output or to lower operating
costs. Energy Audit provides a " bench-mark" (Reference point) for managing energy in the
organization and also provides the basis for planning a more effective use of energy throughout
the organization.
Type of Energy Audit
1. Energy consumption by type of energy, by department, by major items of process equip ment,
by end-use
2. Material balance data (raw materials, intermediate and final products, recycled materials, use
of scrap or waste products, production of by-products for re-use in other industries, etc.)
3. Energy cost and tariff data
4. Process and material flow diagrams
5. Generation and distribution of site services (eg.compressed air, steam).
6. Sources of energy supply (e.g. electricity from the grid or self-generation)
7. Potential for fuel substitution, process modifications, and the use of co-generation systems
(combined heat and power generation).
8. Energy Management procedures and energy awareness training programs within the
establishment. Existing baseline information and reports are useful to get consumption pattern,
production cost and productivity levels in terms of product per raw material inputs. The audit
team should collect the following baseline data:
- Technology, processes used and equipment details
- Capacity utilisation
- Amount & type of input materials used
- Water consumption
- Fuel Consumption
- Electrical energy consumption
- Steam consumption
- Other inputs such as compressed air, cooling water etc
- Quantity & type of wastes generated
- Percentage rejection / reprocessing
- Efficiencies / yield
Energy Audit Reporting Format
After successfully carried out energy audit energy manager/energy auditor should report
to the top management for effective communication and implementation. A typical energy audit
reporting contents and format are given below. The following format is applicable for most of
the industries. However the format can be suitably modified for specific requirement applicable
for a particular type of industry.
Understanding Energy Costs
Understanding energy cost is vital factor for awareness creation and saving calculation. In many
industries sufficient meters may not be available to measure all the energy used. In such cases,
invoices for fuels and electricity will be useful. The annual company balance sheet is the other
sources where fuel cost and power are given with production related information.
The contemporary non-conventional sources of energy like wind, tidal, solar etc. were the
conventional sources until James Watt invented the steam engine in the eighteenth century. In
fact, the New World was explored by man using wind-powered ships only. The nonconventional
sources are available free of cost, are pollution-free and inexhaustible. Man has used these
sources for many centuries in propelling ships, driving windmills for grinding corn and pumping
water, etc. Because of the poor technologies then existing, the cost of harnessing energy from
these sources was quite high. Also because of uncertainty of period of availability and the
difficulty of transporting this form of energy, to the place of its use are some of the factors which
came in the way of its adoption or development. The use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy
replaced totally the non-conventional methods because of inherent advantages of transportation
and certainty of availability; however these have polluted the atmosphere to a great extent. In
fact, it is feared that nuclear energy may prove to be quite hazardous in case it is not properly
controlled.
1. Wind Energy
The evolution of windmills into wind turbines did not happen overnight and
attempts to produce electricity with windmills date back to the beginning of the century.
It was Denmark which erected the first batch of steel windmills specially built for
generation of electricity. After World War II, the development of wind turbines was
totally hampered due to the installation of massive conventional power stations using
fossil fuels available at low cost. But the oil crisis of 1973 heralded a definite break
through in harnessing wind energy. Many European countries started pursuing the
development of wind turbine technology seriously and their development efforts are
continuing even today. The technology involves generation of electricity using turbines,
which converts mechanical energy created by the rotation of blades into electrical energy,
some times the mechanical energy from the mills is directly used for pumping water from
well also. The wind power programme in India was started during 1983-84 with the
efforts of the Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources. In India the total installed
capacity from wind mills is 1612 MW, of which, Tamilnadu has an installed capacity of
858 MW as on 31.03.2002.
Tamil Nadu is endowed with lengthy mountain ranges on its Western side with
three prominent passes in its length. These are with wind-potentials: (1) Palghat Pass in
Coimbatore District-1200 MW, (2) Shengottah Pass in Tirunelveli District-500MW and
(3) Aralvoymozhi Pass in Kanniyakumari District- 300 MW (Total potential-2000 MW).
The mountainous areas close to Cumbum Valley are observed to be having high potential
and, though coastal areas, central plains and hilly areas have been observed unsuitable for
wind power projects, Rameshwaram is found suitable.
2. Bio Energy Biomass is yet another important source of energy with potential to generate
power to the extent of more than 50% of the country’s requirements. India is
predominantly an agricultural economy, with huge quantity of biomass available in the
form of husk, straw, shells of coconuts wild bushes etc. With an estimated production of
350 million tons of agricultural waste every year, biomass is capable of supplementing
coal to the tune of about 200 million tonnes producing 17,000 MW of power and
resulting in a saving of about Rs.20,000 crores every year. Biomass available in India
comprises of rice husk, rice straw, bagasse, coconut shell, jute, cotton, husk etc. Biomass
can be obtained by raising energy farms or may be obtained from organic waste. The
biomass resources including large quantities of cattle dung can be used in bio-energy
technologies viz., biogas, gasifier, biomass combustion, cogeneration etc., to produce
energy-thermal or electricity. Biomass can be used in three ways – one in the form of gas
through gasifiers for thermal applications, second in the form of methane gas to run gas
engines and produce power and the third through combustion to produce steam and
thereby power.
3. Solar Energy Solar Power was once considered, like nuclear power, ‘too cheap to meter’
but this proved illusory because of the high cost of photovoltaic cells and due to limited
demand. Experts however believe that with mass production and improvement in
technology, the unit price would drop and this would make it attractive for the consumers
in relation to thermal or hydel power. The Solar Photo Voltaic (SPV) technology which
enables the direct conversion of sun light into electricity can be used to run pumps, lights,
refrigerators, TV sets, etc., and it has several distinct advantages, since it does not have
moving parts, produces no noise or pollution, requires very little maintenance and can be
installed anywhere. These advantages make them an ideal power source for use
especially in remote and isolated areas which are not served by conventional electricity
making use of ample sunshine available in India, for nearly 300 days in a year. A Solar
Thermal Device, on the other hand captures and transfers the heat energy available in
solar radiation. The energy generated can be used for thermal applications in different
temperature ranges. The heat can be used directly or further converted into mechanical or
electrical energy. 4. Other Sources The other sources of renewable energy are
geothermal, ocean, hydrogen and fuel cells. These have immense energy potential,
though tapping this potential for power generation and other applications calls for
development of suitable technologies.
Recommendations/ Suggestions
a) A consistent and long term policy may be formulated and adopted to promote harnessing of
renewable energy sources in the State.
b) A Single Window Agency may be established under TEDA to act as a forum for speedy clearance
of projects.
c) Tariff may be restructured and power purchase policy revised suitably to make investment in
renewable energy attractive for investors taking into account not just the economic cost but also the
social/ environmental costs associated with conventional power sources.
d) The grant of suitable fiscal and financial incentives may be considered for investment in renewable
sources of energy taking into account the clean and green nature of the energy source such as
exemption from sales tax or sales tax deferral for investment in renewable energy projects
e) Merger of NBDP and IREP schemes along with staff may be undertaken so as to create field outfits
to promote renewable energy projects/ schemes
UNIT III
ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
ENERGY PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF FURNACES
Fluids mentioned above, the usual requirement is to measure and respond to changes in
temperature, pressure, level, humidity and flowrate. Almost always, the response to changes in
these physical properties must be within a given time. The combined manipulation of the valve
and its actuator with time, and the close control of the measured variable, will be explained later
in this Block. The control of fluids is not confined to valves. Some process streams are
manipulated by the action of variable speed pumps or fans.
Along with energy conservation, energy management systems (EMS) also have kept
this industry active in redesigning and improving their products; energy management systems
are computerized control systems implemented mostly by the utility industry, but also by large
manufacturers with their own power stations. Automatic controls have been altered and
redesigned for energy efficiency to work within these systems and for the HVAC units in the
buildings in which they are stored.
Computerized energy management systems,
on a smaller scale, also are being installed in commercial buildings. These systems
combine monitoring and controlling of HVAC units with security, lighting, and fire safety
systems.
Hotels, department stores, and grocery stores, all large users of energy, began
implementing energy management systems in the 1980s. In hotels, for instance, automatic
controls on heating and air-conditioning units are regulated by sensors in individual rooms that
detect whether the rooms are occupied; the controls also are linked to the hotel's front desk in
order to respond to check-ins and check-outs. Similarly, energy management systems have
saved energy and money for department and grocery stores. In these cases, computerized
systems are monitored for a chain of stores by a centralized network.
The industry entered the 1990s experiencing small growth following the decline in
construction of residential and commercial buildings. This modest growth, along with small
sales margins, limited research and development in new technologies and investment in new
facilities. In addition, as a result of the weak economy at the time, many companies chose to
upgrade their existing HVAC systems. Upgrading increased commercial repair and
maintenance, but sales of new HVAC systems rebounding by the end of the decade.
In the 2000s, the industry was dominated by large companies that continued to compete in a
saturated market by increasing efficiency in their products, such as improving circulation
control, compressor design, and network automation. Products became increasingly
standardized, causing companies to differentiate themselves by other means, such as expansion
into the global market. Deregulation of electricity was expected to be a significant factor in the
HVAC industry's future.
CONTROLLED DEVICES
Controlled Devices include:
Valves
Dampers
Actuators for Valves and Dampers
Just about all HVAC control systems will require some type of controlled device. Water and
steam flow controlled devices are called valves while air flow controlled devices are called
dampers. The actuator performs the function of receiving the controllers command output
signal and produces a force or movement used to move the manipulated device usually the
valve or damper.
Advansed technology for effective facility control
Advances in technology brought direct digital control, lighting control, fire
management,security monitoring, distributed networks, personal computers, and sophisticated
graphics. Electronic chips replaced pneumatic controllers. Personal computers (PC’s) replaced
minicomputers. Software programs replaced hardwired logic.
Each new advancement in the electronics and communications industries was eagerly
snapped up by Facilities Management System (FMS) designers. (Note FMS is also sometime
referred to as EMS, but EMS are Energy management systems and FMS tend to be focused on
other uses of the data beyond energy conservations such as computerized maintenance
management.) Systems are now faster and more capable than ever before. Software programs,
electronic components, sensors, actuators, hardware packaging, and communications networks
are integrated, share information, and work together.
The overall purpose of a Facilities Management system is to make the job of facilities
people easier, to make a facility more efficient, and to keep a facility’s occupants comfortable
and safe.
The FMS can save money for building owners in several ways:
By increasing the productivity from
staff by doing mundane tasks for them.
By reducing energy consumption (energy management programs).
By identifying equipment needing maintenance, and even rotating the use of some
equipment.
By managing information.
When considering the use of any FMS, you must define the desired functions, make a
realistic financial analysis, and determine the amount of time available for building personnel
to use and learn to use the system. The following discussion investigates many of the options
available throughout the industry, although there may not be any single FMS which includes
them all.
What is an EMIS?
An EMIS provides relevant information that makes energy performance visible so that key
individuals and departments within a business can take effective action to create financial
value for the organization. In practice, this means that an EMIS should:
ƒ Gather information on energy consumption;
ƒ Gather information on the useful outputs derived from the consumption of energy (e.g.,
production, heating, lighting);
ƒ Gather information on any other factors that may influence energy consumption (e.g.,
environmental factors such as ambient temperature and relative humidity, or operational
factors
such as building occupancy, packaging sizes);
Phases of EMIS development and Implementation
ƒ Contain analysis routines to allow for a comparison between energy consumption and utility
drivers;
ƒ Build and display energy performance reports.
With effective management systems in place, these performance reports can:
ƒ Act as a stimulus for investigation and identification of the root causes of both good and
poor
performance;
ƒ Promote operational best practices by eliminating the root causes of poor performance and
promoting activities that lead to good performance;ƒ Provide the justification for energy
saving projects by making visible the costs of current energy performance and providing a
baseline against which savings projects can be compared; and ƒ Demonstrate the success or
benefits of projects that have been implemented.an EMIS generally includes the following key
components:
ƒ Energy Account centres (EAcs) to manage the energy performance systems (e.g., may be
process lines, unit operations such as furnaces or driers, or components such as air
compressors or boilers).
ƒ Energy meters and sensors for the key environmental factors that influence energy
performance but over which operators have no control (e.g., temperature, relative humidity);ƒ
Production meters and sensors for the operational factors;ƒ data capture systems and data
historians to store this data; andƒ data analysis and reporting systems.
An EMIS does not exist in isolation but is part of an organization’s energy
management system (EnMS). Any EMIS should be adequate to the purpose of the
organization it serves, i.e., meet the requirements assigned to the EMIS by the organization
and be appropriate to the current status and anticipated development of the organization’s
energy management system. this means that assessors cannot simply restrict themselves to the
technical components of the EMIS during the audit, but must also address the interaction
between the EMIS and the EnMS.
Introduction
In the process of energy management, at some stage, investment would be required for reduc-
ing the energy consumption of a process or utility. Investment would be required for modifica-
tions/retrofitting and for incorporating new technology. It would be prudent to adopt a system-
atic approach for merit rating of the different investment options vis-à-vis the anticipated sav-
ings. It is essential to identify the benefits of the proposed measure with reference to not only
energy savings but also other associated benefits such as increased productivity, improved
prod-uct quality etc.
The cost involved in the proposed measure should be captured in totality viz.
• Direct project cost
• Additional operations and maintenance cost
• Training of personnel on new technology etc.
Based on the above, the investment analysis can be carried out by the techniques explained
in the later section of the chapter.
Any investment has to be seen as an addition and not as a substitute for having effective
man-agement practices for controlling energy consumption throughout your organization.
Spending money on technical improvements for energy management cannot compensate
for inadequate attention to gaining control over energy consumption. Therefore, before
you make any investments, it is important to ensure that
• You are getting the best performance from existing plant and equipment
• Your energy charges are set at the lowest possible tariffs
• You are consuming the best energy forms - fuels or electricity as efficiently as possible
• Good housekeeping practices are being regularly practiced.
When listing investment opportunities, the following criteria need to be considered:
• The energy consumption per unit of production of a plant or process
• The current state of repair and energy efficiency of the building design, plant and ser-
vices, including controls
• The quality of the indoor environment not just room temperatures but indoor air quality
and air change rates, drafts, under and overheating including glare, etc.
• The effect of any proposed measure on staff attitudes and behaviour.
• Organization typically give priority to investing in what they see as their core or profit-
making activities in preference to energy efficiency
• Even when they do invest in saving energy, they tend to demand faster rates of return
than they require from other kinds of investment.
Investment Appraisal
Energy manager has to identify how cost savings arising from energy management could
be redeployed within his organization to the maximum effect. To do this, he has to work out
how benefits of increased energy efficiency can be best sold to top management as,
Financial Analysis
In most respects, investment in energy efficiency is no different from any other area of
finan-cial management. So when your organization first decides to invest in increasing its
energy effi-ciency it should apply exactly the same criteria to reducing its energy consumption
as it applies to all its other investments. It should not require a faster or slower rate of return on
investment in energy efficiency than it demands elsewhere. The basic criteria for financial
investment appraisal include:
• Simple Payback - a measure of how long it will be before the investment makes
money, and how long the financing term needs to be
• Return on Investment (ROI) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - measure that
allow comparison with other investment options
• Net Present Value (NPV) and Cash Flow - measures that allow financial planning of
the project and provide the company with all the information needed to incorporate
energy efficiency projects into the corporate financial system.
Initially, when you can identify no or low cost investment opportunities, this principle
should not be difficult to maintain. However, if your organization decides to fund a rolling
pro-gram of such investments, then over time it will become increasingly difficult for you to
iden-tify opportunities, which conform to the principle. Before you'll reach this position, you
need to renegotiate the basis on which investment decisions are made.
It may require particular thoroughness to ensure that all the costs and benefits arising are
taken into account. As an approximate appraisal, simple payback (the total cost of the measure
divided by the annual savings arising from it expressed as years required for the original
invest-ment to be returned) is a useful tool.
As the process becomes more sophisticated, financial criteria such as Discounted Cash
Flow, Internal Rate of Return and Net Present Value may be used. If you do not possess suffi-
cient financial expertise to calculate this yourself, you will need to ensure that you have
access, either within your own staff or elsewhere within the organization, to people who can
employ them on your behalf.
There are two quite separate grounds for arguing that, at least long after their payback peri-
ods. Such measure does not need to be written off using fast discounting rates but can be
regard-ed as adding to the long term value of the assets. For this reason, short term payback
can be an inadequate yardstick for assessin long after their payback periods. Such measure
does not need to be written off using fast discounting rates but can be regarded as adding to the
long term value of the assets. For this reason, short term payback can be an inadequate
yardstick for assessing longer term benefits. To assess the real gains from investing in saving
energy, you should use investment appraisal techniques, which accurately reflect the longevity
of the returns on particular types of technical measures.
Examples
First cost
Simple payback period=
Yearly benefits − Yearly costs
Simple payback period for a continuous Deodorizer that costs Rs.60 lakhs to purchase and
install, Rs.1.5 lakhs per year on an average to operate and maintain and is expected to save Rs.
20 lakhs by reducing steam consumption (as compared to batch deodorizers), may be calculat-
ed as follows:According to the payback criterion, the shorter the payback period, the more
desirable the project.
Advantages
A widely used investment criterion, the payback period seems to offer the following
advantages:
• It is simple, both in concept and application. Obviously a shorter payback generally
indicates a more attractive investment. It does not use tedious calculations.
• It favours projects, which generate substantial cash inflows in earlier years, and dis-
criminates against projects, which bring substantial cash inflows in later years but not
in earlier years.
Limitations
• It fails to consider the time value of money. Cash inflows, in the payback calculation,
are simply added without suitable discounting. This violates the most basic principle of
financial analysis, which stipulates that cash flows occurring at different points of time
can be added or subtracted only after suitable compounding/discounting.
• It ignores cash flows beyond the payback period. This leads to discrimination against
projects that generate substantial cash inflows in later years.
The payback criterion prefers A, which has a payback period of 3 years, in comparison to B,
which has a payback period of 4 years, even though B has very substantial cash inflows in
years 5 and 6.
• It is a measure of a project's capital recovery, not profitability.
• Despite its limitations, the simple payback period has advantages in that it may be use-
ful for evaluating an investment.
A project usually entails an investment for the initial cost of installation, called the capital cost,
and a series of annual costs and/or cost savings (i.e. operating, energy, maintenance, etc.)
throughout the life of the project. To assess project feasibility, all these present and future cash
flows must be equated to a common basis. The problem with equating cash flows which occur
at different times is that the value of money changes with time. The method by which these
var-ious cash flows are related is called discounting, or the present value concept.
For example, if money can be deposited in the bank at 10% interest, then a Rs.100 deposit
will be worth Rs.110 in one year's time. Thus the Rs.110 in one year is a future value equiva-
lent to the Rs.100 present value.
In the same manner, Rs.100 received one year from now is only worth Rs.90.91 in today's
money (i.e. Rs.90.91 plus 10% interest equals Rs.100). Thus Rs.90.91 represents the present
value of Rs.100 cash flow occurring one year in the future. If the interest rate were something
different than 10%, then the equivalent present value would also change. The relationship
between present and future value is determined as follows:
n n
Future Value (FV) = NPV (1 + i) or NPV = FV / (1+i)
Where
ROI expresses the "annual return" from the project as a percentage of capital cost. The annual
return takes into account the cash flows over the project life and the discount rate by convert-
ing the total present value of ongoing cash flows to an equivalent annual amount over the life
of the project, which can then be compared to the capital cost. ROI does not require similar
pro-ject life or capital cost for comparison.
This is a broad indicator of the annual return expected from initial capital investment,
expressed as a percentage:
Annual Net Cash Flow
ROI = --------------------------------- x 100
Capital Cost
ROI must always be higher than cost of money (interest rate); the greater the return on invest-
ment better is the investment.
Limitations
Example
To illustrate the calculation of net present value, consider a project, which has the
following cash flow stream:
The cost of capital, κ, for the firm is 10 per cent. The net present value of the proposal is:
The net present value represents the net benefit over and above the compensation for
time and risk.Hence the decision rule associated with the net present value criterion is:
"Accept the project if the net present value is positive and rejects the project if the net present
value is negative".
Advantages
The net present value criterion has considerable merits.
• It takes into account the time value of money.
• It considers the cash flow stream in its project life.
Internal Rate of Return
This method calculates the rate of return that the investment is expected to yield. The
internal rate of return (IRR) method expresses each investment alternative in terms of a rate of
return (a compound interest rate). The expected rate of return is the interest rate for which total
dis-counted benefits become just equal to total discounted costs (i.e net present benefits or net
annu-al benefits are equal to zero, or for which the benefit / cost ratio equals one). The
criterion for selection among alternatives is to choose the investment with the highest rate of
return.
The rate of return is usually calculated by a process of trial and error, whereby the net cash
flow is computed for various discount rates until its value is reduced to zero.
The internal rate of return (IRR) of a project is the discount rate, which makes its net pre-
sent value (NPV) equal to zero. It is the discount rate in the equation:
The internal rate of return is the value of " κ " which satisfies the following equation:
The calculation of "k" involves a process of trial and error. We try different values of "k" till
we find that the right-hand side of the above equation is equal to 100,000. Let us, to begin
with, try k = 15 per cent. This makes the right-hand side equal to:
30,000 40,000 45,000
+------------- + --------------- + --------------- = 100, 802
2 3 4
(1.15) (1.15) (1.15)
(1. 1 5 )
This value is slightly higher than our target value, 100,000. So we increase the value of k from
15 per cent to 16 per cent. (In general, a higher k lowers and a smaller k increases the right-
Since this value is now less than 100,000, we conclude that the value of k lies between
15 per cent and 16 per cent. For most of the purposes this indication suffices.
Advantages
A popular discounted cash flow method, the internal rate of return criterion has several
advan-tages:
• It takes into account the time value of money.
• It considers the cash flow stream in its entirety.
• It makes sense to businessmen who prefer to think in terms of rate of return and find an
absolute quantity, like net present value, somewhat difficult to work with.
Limitations
• The internal rate of return figure cannot distinguish between lending and borrowing and
hence a high internal rate of return need not necessarily be a desirable feature.
Example
Calculate the internal rate of return for an economizer that will cost Rs.500,000, will
last 10 years, and will result in fuel savings of Rs.150,000 each year.
Find the i that will equate the following:
For i = 25 per cent, net present value is positive; i = 30 per cent, net present value is negative.
Thus, for some discount rate between 25 and 30 per cent, present value benefits are equated to
present value costs. To find the rate more exactly, one can interpolate between the two rates as
follows:
Many of the cash flows in the project are based on assumptions that have an element of uncer-
tainty. The present day cash flows, such as capital cost, energy cost savings, maintenance
costs, etc can usually be estimated fairly accurately. Even though these costs can be predicted
with some certainty, it should always be remembered that they are only estimates. Cash flows
in future years normally contain inflation components which are often "guess-timates" at best.
The project life itself is an estimate that can vary significantly.
Sensitivity analysis is an assessment of risk. Because of the uncertainty in assigning values
to the analysis, it is recommended that a sensitivity analysis be carried out - particularly on
projects where the feasibility is marginal. How sensitive is the project's feasibility to changes
in the input parameters? What if one or more of the factors in the analysis is not as favourable
as predicted? How much would it have to vary before the project becomes unviable? What is
the probability of this happening?
Suppose, for example, that a feasible project is based on an energy cost saving that
escalates at 10% per year, but a sensitivity analysis shows the break-even is at 9% (i.e. the
project becomes unviable if the inflation of energy cost falls below 9%). There is a high degree
of risk associated with this project - much greater than if the break-even value was at 2%.
Many of the computer spreadsheet programs have built-in "what if" functions that make
sensitivity analysis easy. If carried out manually, the sensitivity analysis can become laborious
reworking the analysis many times with various changes in the parameters.
Sensitivity analysis is undertaken to identify those parameters that are both uncertain and
for which the project decision, taken through the NPV or IRR, is sensitive. Switching values
showing the change in a variable required for the project decision to change from acceptance
to rejection are presented for key variables and can be compared with post evaluation results
for similar projects. For large projects and those close to the cut-off rate, a quantitative risk
analysis incorporating different ranges for key variables and the likelihood of their occurring
simultaneously is recommended. Sensitivity and risk analysis should lead to improved project
design, with actions militating against major sources of uncertainty being outlined
The various micro and macro factors that are considered for the sensitivity analysis are
listed below.
Micro factors
• Operating expenses (various expenses items)
• Capital structure
• Costs of debt, equity
• Changing of the forms of finance e.g. leasing
• Changing the project duration
Macro factors
Macro economic variables are the variable that affects the operation of the industry
of which the firm operates. They cannot be changed by the firm's management. Macro
economic variables, which affect projects, include among others:
• Changes in interest rates
• Changes in the tax rates
• Changes in the accounting standards e.g. methods of calculating depreciation
• Changes in depreciation rates
• Extension of various government subsidized projects e.g. rural electrification
• General employment trends e.g. if the government changes the salary scales
• Imposition of regulations on environmental and safety issues in the industry
• Energy Price change
• Technology changes
The sensitivity analysis will bring changes in various items in the analysis of financial state-
ments or the projects, which in turn might lead to different conclusions regarding the imple-
mentation of projects.
Financing Options
There are various options for financing in-house energy management
1. From a central budget
2. From a specific departmental or section budget such as engineering
3. By obtaining a bank loan
4. By raising money from stock market
5. By awarding the project to Energy Service Company (ESCO)
6. By retaining a proportion of the savings achieved.
Ensuring Continuity
In some contracts, the ESCOs provide a guarantee for the savings that will be realized, and
absorbs the cost if real savings fall short of this level. Typically, there will be a risk
management cost involved in the contract in these situations. Insurance is sometimes attached,
at a cost, to protect the ESCO in the event of a savings shortfall.
Energy efficiency projects generate incremental cost savings as opposed to incremental
rev-enues from the sale of outputs. The energycost savings can be turned into incremental cash
flows to the lender or ESCO based onthe commitment of the energy user (and in some cases, a
utility) to pay for the savings.
Cash
Flows Discounted
Year (CF) CF @ 10% Benefits Costs
16832/15450 = 1.09