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    Lecture 6

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    abhisar 123
    A push system schedules workstations in advance, with each station pushing completed work to the next. A pull system has workers go back to previous stations and take only what they need immediately, signaling those stations to produce more. Pull systems prevent over or under production. Forecasting assumes past patterns will repeat, but new products have no history. Certain forecasts are more accurate than others. Long term forecasts are less accurate than short term, and aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate. If a product has history, companies identify demand factors and their relationships. Without history, qualitative forecasts rely on judgment, time series use only past demand, causal looks at demand relationships, and simulation imitates consumer choices driving demand.

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    Lecture 6

    Uploaded by

    abhisar 123
    9 views9 pages
    A push system schedules workstations in advance, with each station pushing completed work to the next. A pull system has workers go back to previous stations and take only what they need immediately, signaling those stations to produce more. Pull systems prevent over or under production. Forecasting assumes past patterns will repeat, but new products have no history. Certain forecasts are more accurate than others. Long term forecasts are less accurate than short term, and aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate. If a product has history, companies identify demand factors and their relationships. Without history, qualitative forecasts rely on judgment, time series use only past demand, causal looks at demand relationships, and simulation imitates consumer choices driving demand.

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    A push system schedules workstations in advance, with each station pushing completed work to the next. A pull system has workers go back to previous stations and take only what they need immediately, signaling those stations to produce more. Pull systems prevent over or under production. Forecasting assumes past patterns will repeat, but new products have no history. Certain forecasts are more accurate than others. Long term forecasts are less accurate than short term, and aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate. If a product has history, companies identify demand factors and their relationships. Without history, qualitative forecasts rely on judgment, time series use only past demand, causal looks at demand relationships, and simulation imitates consumer choices driving demand.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    9 views9 pages

    Lecture 6

    Uploaded by

    abhisar 123
    A push system schedules workstations in advance, with each station pushing completed work to the next. A pull system has workers go back to previous stations and take only what they need immediately, signaling those stations to produce more. Pull systems prevent over or under production. Forecasting assumes past patterns will repeat, but new products have no history. Certain forecasts are more accurate than others. Long term forecasts are less accurate than short term, and aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate. If a product has history, companies identify demand factors and their relationships. Without history, qualitative forecasts rely on judgment, time series use only past demand, causal looks at demand relationships, and simulation imitates consumer choices driving demand.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 9

    Push Vs Pull System

    Push Vs Pull System


    Push Vs Pull System
    Push System • A schedule is prepared in advance for a series of workstations,
    and each workstation pushes its completed work to the next
    station

    Pull System • With a pull system, workers go back to previous stations and
    take only the parts or materials they need and can process
    immediately.

    • When the material has been taken, workers at the previous


    station know it is the time to produce more, that too which
    product.

    • Prevents over/ under production


    Demand Forecasting
    Forecasting

    • We assume that what has happened in past will repeat itself

    • What if the product has no background or is a new one?

    • Can the demand prediction of one set of products be better than others?

    What all may go wrong … if we use the same method for all of
    them
    Certain Characteristics of Forecast

    • Forecasts are always inaccurate and should thus include both the
    expected value of the forecast and the measure of forecast error

    • Long term forecasts are less accurate than short term forecasts

    • Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate


    forecast.
    Components of Forecast : If product has a history

    • Companies must identify the factors that influence future demand and then
    ascertain the relationship between these factors and future demand
    • Past demand (and not past sales)
    • Lead time of product replenishment
    • Planned advertising or marketing efforts
    • Planned price discounts
    • State of the economy
    • Actions that competitors have taken

    But what if no history……………


    Forecasting Methods

    1. Qualitative 2. Time Series


    • Primarily subjective • Use historical demand
    • Rely on judgment only
    • Best with stable demand

    3. Causal 4. Simulation
    • Relationship between • Imitate consumer
    demand and some choices that give rise to
    other factor demand
    Choosing the Right Forecast

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