Superpowers

What are superpowers and how have they

changed over time?
• Some countries, and country groupings, have much greater geopolitical
influence than others because of their geographical characteristics.
• Geopolitical power is dynamic, it has changed in the past and continues
to change as countries rise and fall in global influence.
• Today, a number of emerging powers are important but each has
different strengths and weaknesses.
Sources of geopolitical power
Defining superpowers
The power and influence of countries is very variable. The global TV news
tends to be dominated by stories about the USA, China and EU countries.
This is because these countries have a disproportionate amount of global
influence. Geopolitical power can be thought of as a hierarchy, as shown in
Figure 35.
Today, the USA is the only true superpower. Some view the USA as not
‘just’ a superpower but as a hyperpower because it is so much more
powerful than other countries. The EU is hard to classify into the hierarchy.
This union of 28 countries and 510 million people is a nuclear weapons
power (UK, France) and the world’s second largest economy after the USA.
The fact that its 28 member states often disagree is a weakness in terms of
global power. The EU could be further weakened when the UK leaves in
2019–2020 following the 2016 Referendum vote.
Power has a number of different sources (Table 13) and few countries ‘tick
all the boxes’.
Table 13 Sources of power
Economic Political Military
A large total GDP gives Leading, rather than Nuclear weapons, a large
countries the wealth following, within navy and airforce are
needed to be a global global organisations required to threaten or
player such as the UN, IMF force a country’s will on
and WTO others
Cultural Demographic Natural resources
Having ideas, art, Power requires people, Fossil fuels, land for
music, food and fashion to support a large farming, mineral wealth
that other people find economy and the and water resources
appealing is a source of military increase self-sufficiency
power

Exam tip
It can be hard to decide how to classify some countries, e.g. is Russia a
superpower or an emerging power? In the exam, the key is being able to
explain the category in which you place a country using evidence.

Mechanisms of power
Table 14 shows possible ways of measuring power. The USA, EU and
China are at or near the top in all columns. Other countries, such as India
and Russia, do well only in some rankings.
The types of power these rankings suggest can be placed on a spectrum
from hard power to soft power.
• Hard power: using military and economic influence (trade deals,
sanctions) to force another country to act in a particular way.
• Soft power: more subtle persuasion of countries to act in particular ways,
on the basis that the persuader is respected and appealing. Includes
political persuasion (diplomacy) and cultural influence.
The political scientist Joseph Nye coined the term soft power. He argues
that in the twenty-first century the most successful countries are those that
combine hard and soft power into smart power.

Knowledge check 47
In 2017, how many member states made up the EU?
An important question is whether hard or soft power is more effective.
• Hard power (threats of force or direct military action) can get results but
is expensive and risky.
• Others may view military action as unnecessary or illegal, so the
aggressor may lose allies and moral authority (e.g. Russia’s 2014
invasion of the Crimea).
• Soft power relies on a country having respected culture, values and
politics, which may be enough to persuade some countries but not others.
• Soft power, applied well, is low cost and, because it is about creating
alliances and friendly relations, may spread to other countries.

Exam tip
Learn some data, such as in Table 14, because you need to be able to state
some hard facts in the exam to back up your explanations.
International rankings of soft power, such as by Monocle magazine, usually
place the USA, UK, France and Germany top of the annual rankings, i.e.
Western, liberal democracies.

Knowledge check 48
Which country has the most active nuclear warheads?

Changing mechanisms
The relative importance of different forms of power has changed over time.
In the past, military force and hard power were the common mechanisms
for achieving and maintaining power.
In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries the idea that power came
from controlling vast land areas was important. In 1904 British geographer
Halford Mackinder produced an influential geo-strategic location theory,
called Heartland Theory (Figure 36).
Heartland theory was influential.
• It persuaded the USA, UK and other European countries that Russia
needed to be ‘contained’, i.e. prevented from spreading outward by taking
over new areas close by.
• It reinforced that idea that control of physical resources (land, mineral
wealth) was important.
In the twenty-first century these ideas seem old-fashioned.
• Modern military technology (inter-continental ballistic missiles, drones,
aircraft carriers, strike aircraft) can hit deep inside another country’s
territory — size is no protection.
• Physical resources are traded internationally; there is much less need to
have them domestically.
• War and conflict are generally seen as abnormal, whereas in the past they
were accepted ways of gaining power.

Knowledge check 49
Give an example of a recent use of ‘hard power’.
Soft power has become more common as a way of gaining influence and
maintaining power, by creating economic and political alliances. However,
hard power still exists.
• In 1991 and 2003 the USA and its allies invaded Iraq, partly to secure oil
supplies.
• Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine/Crimea in 2014, claiming
to be protecting ethnic Russians.
Patterns of power
Imperial power
The period 1500 to 1950 was an imperial era. European powers (Spain,
Portugal, UK, France and Germany) conquered land in the Americas,
Africa and Asia and built empires that directly controlled territories. The
development of empires relied on:
• powerful navies to transport soldiers and equipment to areas of potential
conquest, and then protect sea-routes and coastlines from enemies
• large and advanced armed forces to conquer territory and then control it
• businesses, often government owned, to exploit resources in the
conquered territories by mining (gold, tin) and plantation farming
(rubber, tea, coffee)
• a fleet of merchant ships, protected by a navy, to transport goods back to
the home country
• people from the home country to act as the government and civil service
to run the colonies
Empires were maintained directly by force. Attempts by the conquered
people to rebel against the colonial power were brutally suppressed. Britain
had the largest empire, reaching its peak in 1920 when it controlled 24% of
the world’s land across all continents.
Empires ended in the period 1950–1970. European countries gave
independence to their colonies. This was because the cost of maintaining
empires was too high as Europe rebuilt after the Second World War. Since
1950, China has effectively acted as a colonial ruler of Tibet, brutally
suppressing dissent during rebellions by Tibetans in 1959 and 2008.
Indirect control
Even during the imperial era, there was a limited attempt to control colonies
using power mechanisms other than military. In British India, English
culture was encouraged at least among wealthier Indians. This included
English schools and language, competitive sport (cricket) and dress.
Today, no superpower or emerging power has a significant empire —
although Russian-controlled parts of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are a
mini-empire — so control of other places and people has to be indirect.
These indirect mechanisms are summarised in Table 15.
Table 15 Indirect mechanisms of power
Political Military
Dominance in international The threat of large, powerful armed
decision-making within the forces with global reach
United Nations, G7, World Trade Selective arms trading that provides
Organisation and others weapons to key allies, but not enemies
Some countries have
disproportionate influence
Economic Cultural
The use of trade deals and trade The use of global media (TV, film,
blocs to create economic music) arts, culture and global TNC
alliances that create brands to spread the ideology and
interdependence between like- values of a country through consumer
minded countries culture

Exam tip
Political, military, economic and cultural power are sometimes called the
‘pillars’ of superpower status. These pillars provide a useful structure for
evaluating power in essay questions.

Indirect power became important during the Cold War era. The USA and
USSR sought allies among other countries as part of the USA-led ‘West’ or
USSR-led ‘East’. This included:
• military alliances, e.g. USA (NATO) and the USSR (Warsaw Pact)
• foreign aid as a way to ‘buy’ support from emerging and developing
nations
• support for corrupt and undemocratic regimes in the developing world, in
return for their support for the superpower
Some geographers have argued that Western nations continue to control
their ex-colonies in the developing world through an indirect mechanism
called neo-colonialism, which includes:
• a debt–aid relationship: developing countries owe money for past loans
to developed countries, but their poverty means they also depend on
hand-outs of foreign aid
• poor terms of trade: developing countries export low value commodities
(tea, copper, cocoa) but have to import expensive manufactured goods
from developed countries
• the loss of their brightest and most productive people: who tend to
migrate to developed countries if they can
The rise of China as an emerging power since 2000 has led to it being
accused of neo-colonial actions in Africa. In addition, it is challenging the
hegemony of the USA and former colonial powers (France and the UK) in
Africa.
Knowledge check 50
When was the Cold War between the USSR and USA?

Geopolitical stability and risk

Patterns of power vary over time, and can be characterised as:
• uni-polar: one globally dominant superpower, or hyperpower
• bi-polar: two opposing superpowers, with different ideologies, but
broadly equal in status
• multi-polar: many broadly equal powers, with regional influence but less
global influence
Over time, patterns of power have changed (Table 16). In a uni-polar world
there is one hegemon which is unchallenged by other countries.
It is interesting to consider which pattern of power is more stable, and
which brings higher risk.
• A uni-polar world should be stable: there is only one ‘top-dog’, but the
costs of being the hegemon are high and hard to sustain. The USA has
been called ‘the world’s policeman’, meaning it is involved in numerous
trouble spots all at the same time.
• Bi-polar situations, such as the Cold War, involve a tense stand-off
between opposing powers and might be described as high risk ‘scary but
stable’. During the Cold War there were occasions when the USSR and
USA almost ended up in a ‘hot’ war.
• Between the First and Second World Wars the world was multi-polar
with no dominant power. It could be argued this created a power vacuum
allowing the rise of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, with no country
prepared to stop them.

Exam tip
Make sure you have a clear historical timeline about how the polarity of
power has changed over time, with dates.
This has implications for the future. After 2030 the world could be bi-polar
(USA and China) or it might be more multi-polar (USA, China, India, EU).
This will have big implications for the sort of world we live in.
The emerging powers
Emerging powers
The global consensus is that some emerging powers will be increasingly
important to global economic and political systems in the twenty-first
century and the dominance of the USA will decline. The most likely rival to
the USA’s current hegemony is China, because:
• it has huge human resources
• its economy has grown massively since 1990, and shows few signs of
slowing down
• it increasingly engages with other parts of the world, notably by
investing in Africa in terms of mineral resources
• it has military ambitions to build a blue water navy, operating beyond
its coastline
Other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and G20 countries could
become significantly more powerful in the future. Figure 37 shows that
Europe’s and the USA’s share of world GDP has been in decline for some
time. Having declined up to 1960, China and India are now becoming
increasingly significant to the global economy and that is likely to continue.
It is likely that emerging powers in the near future will:
• demand more say in global organisations such as the United Nations:
there is a case for India having a permanent seat on the UN Security
Council
• have more influence over global financial decision-making at the World
Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization
• play a greater role in international peacekeeping missions and disaster
response, as their military capacities grow

The BRIC countries account for 42% of global carbon dioxide emissions.
This means a global environmental governance agreement to tackle
global warming has to involve these countries. At the UN Climate Change
Conference in Paris in 2015 the BRIC countries were involved in the
agreement in a way they had not been when the 1997 Kyoto Protocol was
signed, which only involved developed countries.
Strengths and weaknesses
Emerging countries have contrasting strengths and weakness as summarised
in Table 17. Several points are worth stressing.

• Countries with ageing, or even declining, populations (Russia, Japan,

some EU countries and even China) face major problems in the future in
paying for increasingly costly healthcare at the same time as their
workforce shrinks.
• Shortages of physical resources could derail the ambitions of some
countries (India) whereas growing pollution could stall the growth of
others (China).
• Countries with modern infrastructure, balanced economic sectors and
good energy supplies (China, Brazil, Mexico) will do better than ones yet
to develop these (India, Indonesia, Nigeria).
To be a true superpower, any emerging power will need to engage with the
rest of the world and become a leader on issues such as global security, the
fight against terrorism, response to disasters and environmental issues.
Interestingly, this is what China has often failed to do so far.

Knowledge check 51
Roughly, what percentage of global GDP did China account for by 2010?

Development theory
Theories can help explain changing patterns of power, i.e. why some
countries become powerful, whereas others do not. Three theories are worth
considering.
1 WW Rostow’s Modernisation Theory. Sometimes known as the ‘Take-
Off model’. It suggests that economic development only begins when
certain pre-conditions are met: modern infrastructure, education, banking
and effective government.
2 AG Frank’s Dependency Theory. Argues that the relationship between
developed and developing countries is one of dependency: this prevents
developing countries from making economic progress. Neo-colonial
mechanisms and a net transfer of wealth from developing to developed
world are responsible.
3 Immanuel Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory. Does not see the world
in Frank’s developed versus developing world terms, but rather as a
global system of core, semi-periphery and periphery nations. The semi-
periphery countries are the emerging economies, some of which are
emerging superpowers.

Exam tip
You need to know a range of strengths and weaknesses for the BRICs and
the existing superpowers (EU, USA) and be able to judge which are the
most/least powerful.

Knowledge check 52
Name an emerging power with an ageing population.
World Systems Theory is a good ‘fit’ for the current pattern of developed,
emerging and developing countries. Modernisation Theory is useful in
explaining how some countries manage to become wealthy. None of the
theories are very good at identifying why some countries, but not others,
become superpowers.

What are the impacts of superpowers on

the global economy, political systems and
the physical environment?
• Superpowers, and increasingly emerging powers, have disproportionate
economic influence which also has cultural consequences.
• International decision making in relation to conflict, crises and
environmental concerns is often dominated by a small number of
powerful countries.
• The demand from superpowers and emerging powers for physical
resources has environmental consequences and reveals contrasting
attitudes.
Superpowers and the global economy
Superpower influence
Superpowers have a disproportionate influence on the global economy. The
USA, EU and Japan — which in 2016 accounted for about 60% of global
GDP — are all Western capitalist economies. This means that they:
• are capitalist, i.e. people own businesses and employ workers, and make
profits for themselves
• promote free trade in goods and services across borders
• are dominated by private enterprise, rather than government-owned
companies
• promote wealth creation and accumulation by companies and individuals
Just after the end of the Second World War in 1945, Europe and the USA
created a range of global Inter-governmental Organisations (IGOs) to
promote this model, which still exist today. These IGOs are dominated by
Western capitalist countries and their views (Table 18).
Table 18 Global IGOs and their role
World Bank (WB) World Trade Organization (WTO)
1944 1947
Lends money to developing and Works to remove barriers to
emerging economies to promote international trade
economic development Has negotiated a sequence of global free
This is done within a Western trade agreements that have gradually
capitalist model removed trade taxes and quotas
The money originates from
developed economies
International Monetary Fund World Economic Forum (WEF)
(IMF)
1945 1971
Promotes global economic A Swiss non-profit organisation
stability It acts as a forum for discussion between
Aids economies in opening up to business, politicians and IGOs
world trade and investment It is pro-free trade and pro-TNCs
Comes to the aid of countries in
economic difficulty

TNCs
Key drivers of the Western capitalist economic system and economic
globalisation are big companies known as trans-national corporations
(TNCs). These come in two flavours:
1 public TNCs: owned by shareholders; examples include Apple, Tesco,
Shell and Zara
2 state-led TNCs: owned by governments; examples include Bank of
China, EDF and Petronas
Knowledge check 53
Name the global IGO that promotes global free trade.
Exam tip
You can use acronyms such as WTO and IMF, but write out in full the first
time you use them.
State-led TNCs are found in countries which do not follow the Western
capitalism model, such as China and Russia. They are less democratic, and
governments want the profits from business for themselves. These TNCs
are often within strategic industries such as banking, oil and gas, vehicle
manufacturing and the steel industry. Table 19 shows that the world’s
biggest TNCs are dominated by companies from the USA and EU, and
state-owned companies from China. The latter tend to be much less global,
operating mainly in China and a few other developing and emerging
countries.
Knowledge check 54
Who owns many of China’s largest companies?

Exam tip
Learn some data on the size and revenue of TNCs, as this will add depth to
your answers.

Huge economic power rests with big TNCs:

• Apple’s annual revenue is roughly the same size as the total GDP of
Finland or Chile
• Walmart employs 2.3 million people worldwide
• 62% of the world’s 2000 biggest companies in 2016 were from the EU,
USA and Japan, with over 25% from the USA alone
Synoptic themes
TNCs are influential in a number of ways in terms of maintaining power
and generating wealth.
• Their economic power influences trade patterns, and therefore the
location of areas of growth because of their foreign direct investment
(FDI).
• If TNCs decide to move somewhere else, for example US car companies
moving out of Detriot, they can cause economic decline.
• TNCs invest heavily in new technology and patents: this earns them
more money through new products and the royalties paid by other
companies to use their patents.
• 90% of global patent royalties are paid to EU, US and Japanese
companies.
Cultural influence
Cultural influence is an important aspect of power, linked to economic
influence and the development and spread of new technology. TNC brands
are key drivers of cultural globalisation and Westernisation. Westernisation
is the adoption of western culture and values.
These include:
• individual freedom and rights, including gender equality and religious
freedom
• the idea that accumulating wealth, owning property and consuming
goods and services indicate a successful life
• the importance of leisure activities such as holidays, watching TV and
films
• the importance of having the latest technology, and the idea that
technology can solve problems
• living in a small family unit, rather than an extended family
• Westernisation, in Asia and South America, is most obvious in areas such
as dress, the types of food people eat (fast-food such as McDonald’s and
KFC), the films they watch (Disney, 21st Century Fox) and the spread of
American English as a ‘global language’
• the importance of Westernisation stems from the fact that increasingly
people in Asia and South America ‘think and act like we do’. The desire
to have access to the world’s most famous global brands is a powerful
force driving this process (Table 20)
Table 20 The top ten global brands in 2016
Google Internet and media
Apple Technology and media
Microsoft Technology and media
AT&T Telecoms
Facebook Networking and media
Visa Banking
Amazon Retail and media
Verizon Telecoms
McDonald’s Fast food
IBM Technology
All of these global brands originate from the USA

Superpowers and international decision making

Global action
Superpowers and emerging powers have the ability to act globally. This is
especially true of the USA, slightly less so for the EU and much less so for
the BRICs. A key characteristic of a true superpower is that weaker
countries look to it to act in times of crisis. This includes:
• intervening in war and conflict, especially when an internal conflict
threatens to spill-out into other countries
• taking action in terms of crisis response, e.g. natural disaster, famine or a
serious disease outbreak
• responding to terrorism, such as the threat from ISIS or Al Qaeda
• responding to longer-term threats, such as climate-change-induced global
warming
For the USA, and to a lesser extent the EU, this expectation is a heavy
responsibility and also a huge economic cost.
Synoptic themes
As a powerful country, the USA is often expected to act as a ‘global
policeman’, sorting out problems wherever they happen to be. Many
Americans do not accept this role. Interestingly China, despite its rising
global power, is very reluctant to act in this way.
Examples of global action include those shown in Table 21.
Table 21 Global actions
2014 Ebola epidemic 2011 Libya crisis
The USA, UK and France led the The EU, led by France and the UK,
crisis response in Liberia, Sierra took military action against the
Leone and Guinea, deploying military Gaddafi regime, with the help of
and medical assets US military intelligence
War on Terror 2010 Haiti earthquake
Since 2001, the USA has led a global The USA used its vast naval and air
effort against Islamic terrorism in force assets to respond to this
Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, East disaster with medical, food and
Africa and the Middle East infrastructure aid

Alliances
Even hyperpowers such as the USA, or Britain in the Imperial era, seek
allies. Having like-minded friends adds to a superpower’s strength.
• Allies can be ‘eyes and ears’ in distant parts of the world, spotting
trouble as it develops.
• Allies increase the network of military assets spread around the world.
• Political and economic allies can form a large bloc, to force their agenda
on the wider world.

Knowledge check 55
Today, which country is expected to act as the ‘world’s policeman’?

The USA has a broad global military alliance, which its emerging power
challengers (China, Russia and India) cannot match (Figure 38). These
alliances allow the USA to position powerful air and naval assets around
the world.

The USA and its military allies spent US$966 billion on their militaries in
2015, or 58% of global military spending.
As well as being tied together economically, superpowers are tied by
economic alliances. This is achieved by free-trade agreements.
These include:
• the EU: between 28 member states
• NAFTA: between the USA, Mexico and Canada
• ASEAN: between 10 south-east Asian countries including Taiwan, the
Philippines and Indonesia
The overlap between economic and military alliances creates
interdependence in terms of geostrategy. Economic prosperity requires
geopolitical stability (wars are bad for trade), which is ensured by military
alliances.
Knowledge check 56
Which is the largest military alliance the USA is part of?
Synoptic themes
Most of the world’s powerful inter-governmental organisations (IGOs) such
as the United Nations, World Trade Organization and EU were set up by
Western countries in the 1940s and 1950s. Their actions frequently reflect
Western attitudes to trade, capitalism, political freedom and the
environment. They may not reflect the attitudes of emerging powers such as
China or Russia.
Exam tip
Make sure you can weigh up the importance of both military and
economic alliances in terms of influencing global decision making.

The United Nations

The UN (United Nations) was set up in 1945. With other global IGOs, it
was part of an attempt to create a new world order of peace, prosperity and
stability and avoid further world wars.
The most powerful decision-making body within the UN is the Security
Council. It makes decisions on issues such as:
• taking military action against countries seen to be breaking international
law or persecuting people
• applying economic or diplomatic sanctions to countries, to try to force
them to change their behaviour
The Security Council’s five permanent members tend to act as two blocs, as
shown in Figure 39, which gives the ‘Western’ powers a 3:2 advantage.
The UN is important in other ways.
• The International Court of Justice upholds international law; its legal
framework is a Western one, reflecting the fact that the UN was set up by
the USA and European powers.
• Peacekeeping missions can be set up by the UN, sourcing armed forces
from member states. These have had some success at ending or
preventing conflict, e.g. the Bosnian conflict in the 1990s.
• The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its
scientific advisory panel the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) are important in informing the debate on global
warming, and thus international agreements such as the COP21
agreement in Paris in 2015 where many countries pledged to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions.
Superpowers and the environment
Resource demands
Global environmental governance is disproportionately influenced by
superpowers. This is most obvious when it comes to global warming. As
Figure 40 shows, any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fail
unless big emitters agree, because they account for such a large percentage
of global emissions.
• The USA and China have been reluctant to set emissions reduction
targets, whereas the EU has often led in this regard.
• EU and US emissions are static or falling (because of greater efficiency
and some green policies) but in China emissions are still rising.
Key questions for the next 20 years:
• What will the food, water, energy, mineral and other resource demands of
emerging India, Brazil and China be as those countries get wealthier?
• Can the world’s resource base provide for these emerging powers, if
people attain a similar level of wealth to the EU and USA today?
Energy demand is a useful example. Projections to 2040 estimate a 40–50%
increase compared with 2010. Almost all of this will come from emerging
and developing countries, mostly India and China. Much of the growth is
likely to be in the form of fossil fuel coal, gas and oil — meaning rising
carbon dioxide emissions.
• In India, demand for food and water, as that country reduces poverty,
look unsustainable by 2030 as even today India struggles with adequate
water supply.
• In China, demands for cars, bigger houses and consumer goods will suck
in global energy and mineral resources and could lead to rising resource
 prices and, potentially, shortages.
Continued economic development in emerging powers is also likely to lead
to local environmental degradation. This will translate into health
problems especially in densely populated cities.
Synoptic themes
It is important to recognise that just as attitudes to issues such as trade and
globalisation differ between countries, so do attitudes to the environment.
The EU has shown itself willing to act to reduce the global warming threat,
but this is less true of the USA and even less so of the emerging powers
(China, Russia), which tend to prioritise economic development over
environmental protection.
Knowledge check 57
In 2015, which single country was the world’s largest emitter of carbon
dioxide?

Environmental governance
Just as the world looks to superpowers to act as ‘global policemen’, many
people would look to the same countries to show leadership on
environmental issues such as carbon emissions. Opinion on this issue is
very divided, with some superpowers more willing to act to try and reach
global agreements than others (Figure 41).
• China’s focus is largely on economic development not environmental
issues.
• In the USA concern is quite low, at 45%. There is a long-standing
‘climate scepticism’ in the USA.
• Europeans are more concerned. Europe has been the most willing to act
to try and reduce emissions since 1990.

Exam tip
Be careful when discussing China. With per capita income in 2017 of
around US$8,000, it is still an emerging economy not a fully developed
one.
The very high level of concern in Africa and Latin America is interesting.
Both regions have little impact on global warming as their emissions are
low. They could be severely affected by climate change as both have many
farmers that depend directly on rainfall for water supply, and crops for food.

There are some reasons to be positive about environmental governance:

• Brazil has dramatically slowed forest loss and expanded protected areas
since 2005
• China has become the world’s biggest investor in renewable wind power
and solar power and has cut back on coal burning
At the Paris climate summit (COP21) in 2015 all countries did agree on
emissions reductions. China, still focused on economic development,
agreed to reduce emissions after 2030.

Exam tip
You need to know a range of reasons why attitudes to environmental
issues vary around the world.
Emerging demand
Over the next 30 or 40 years resource demand in the USA and EU is likely
to remain static. Most people are already wealthy and their demand for
additional resources will be met by increasingly efficient use of existing
resources.
In emerging powers, this is not the case. Pressure on resources has a
number of causes:
• increasing population, especially in India, Indonesia and Brazil
• increased wealth: the global middle class (people earning US$10–100
per day) is expected to increase from 2 billion in 2012 to a staggering 5
billion by 2030
These people will need more ‘stuff’ and that may be problematic (Table
22).
Table 22 Resource demands
Rare earths Oil
80–90% of global rare earth In 2015 the USA used 19 million
production is in China barrels of oil per day, China 12
This raises the possibility of million and India 4 million
shortages due to resource What if Indian and Chinese demand
nationalism reached USA levels?
Food Water
As China and India develop there In the USA and EU washing
will be increased demand for staple machines, dishwashers, a daily
grains (wheat, rice) bath/shower and swimming pools are
Demand for meat, dairy products common
and sugar will also rise as these This is not of true emerging
countries transition to ‘Western’ countries, but vast additional water
diets supplies will be needed if it becomes
true
Increased demand is likely to have two consequences:
1 the price of key resources rises as higher demand puts pressure on
supply
2 availability of resources, especially non-renewable ones, falls as some
supplies are used up
In addition the rise of middle-class consumption will affect the physical
environment:
• more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in the quest to access raw
materials
• increased carbon emissions from higher energy consumption and more
factories
• problems disposing of consumer waste in landfill sites and incinerators
• more use of water, and therefore more polluted waste water

Knowledge check 58
What is the range of daily earnings in US$ that defines ‘middle class’?

What spheres of influence are contested by

superpowers and what are the
implications of this?
• Tensions can arise between superpowers and emerging powers over
resources, trade and geographical spheres of influence.
• Ties between emerging powers and the developing world bring new
opportunities, but could also stoke existing tensions.
• The EU and USA face challenges in terms of maintaining their global
influence in an increasingly uncertain world.
Contested spheres of influence
Physical resources
Superpowers and emerging powers need physical resources, especially
fossil fuels, minerals and ores. Some have these domestically but in many
cases they must be obtained through international trade. This can mean:
• buying resources at high prices, e.g. in 2008 crude oil was priced at
US$140 per barrel
• trading with unfriendly regimes, or ones that are politically unstable, e.g.
Iranian and Iraqi oil
• during conflict, trade routes and therefore supply is blocked
These factors increase the advantage of claiming new territory and its
resources. In some cases tensions can arise as countries attempt to acquire
natural resources, but their ownership is disputed. This can be done in
several ways:
• invasion and conquest of another country’s territory, which is rare
• claiming offshore, undersea resources by extending a country’s exclusive
economic zone (EEZ), which is more common
There are examples of both approaches (Table 23).
Table 23 Gaining new territory
Russian annexation of Crimea in Arctic oil and gas resources
2014
Russia invaded and took Crimea Huge oil and gas reserves may exist
(part of Ukraine) by force in 2014 under the Arctic Ocean
A key reason for doing this was to This area is beyond the EEZ of
gain total control of the Russian Canada, USA, Russia and Denmark
naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea All of these countries have claimed
— home to Russia’s Black Sea EEZ extensions, which are disputed
Fleet by others, and lodged these with the
The base was leased to Russia in UN (which ultimately rules on them)
1997, but not owned by Russia Since 2007, military patrols and
Russia fears that if Ukraine joins activity have increased in the Arctic
the EU and/or NATO this strategic as each country shows it is interested
base could be lost in the area, and willing to defend its
Fearing the loss of land and a port, claims
both physical resources, Russia
acted
Any attempt to drill for oil and gas in the Arctic could become a source of
diplomatic if not actual conflict. In addition, the risks of environmental
disaster from oil spills is high in one of the few remaining pristine
ecosystems on the planet also with a large indigenous population, i.e. the
Inuit.
Knowledge check 59
Which are the two most powerful countries that have claims to some of the
Arctic sea bed?

Exam tip
Make sure you can accurately locate the superpowers and emerging
powers on a world map.

Synoptic themes
Currently no natural resources are exploited in Antarctica, and few in the
Arctic, but in the future this may change if some countries believe they
should be exploited. The attitudes of countries may change if resources are
depleted elsewhere leaving only these protected places as sources of
minerals and fossil fuels.
Intellectual property
Human resources are a key element of power. This is especially the case
with regard to new inventions and discoveries such as:
• new military technology, used for defence or attack
• inventions and new products that could bring riches
Most inventions are made by government organisations or TNCs through
research and development (R&D).
To prevent new inventions being copied illegally, they are protected by an
international system of intellectual property (IP). Without this:
• TNCs would be reluctant to invest in R&D, because they would gain
little profit from inventions that were immediately copied
• countries would be reluctant to trade, because their IP would fall into the
hands of others who would steal it
IP has economic value. Royalty fees alone amount to US$150–200 billion
annually, with 80% going to the USA, Japan and western Europe.
Intellectual property theft, counterfeiting and industrial espionage can strain
trade relationships, causing problems. It has been estimated that counterfeit
goods sales account for 5–8% of China’s GDP. Chinese car companies have
copied car designs from BMW and Mercedes, and iPhones are widely
counterfeited.
• TNCs may limit investment in China if they fear IP theft.
• Total losses worldwide are probably US$400–600 billion annually.
• Trade deals with countries such as China are made much harder by its
failure to tackle IP theft.
• Counterfeit goods are often unsafe, putting consumers at risk.
Political spheres
The concept of a sphere of influence is useful in terms of tensions between
superpowers and emerging powers over territory and physical resources.
Table 24 shows the USA and its global allies. It includes a summary of
regions where emerging power spheres of influence overlap with traditional
US spheres.
Table 24 Overlapping spheres of influence
1 Eastern Eastern European countries joining the EU, and moves by
Europe Georgia and Ukraine to do so, angered Russia, leading to the
Russian invasions of parts of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine
in 2014, as well as a build-up of NATO armed forces in the
Baltic States
2 Middle Since 2011, Russia has been an active ally of Syria, helping
East & the Syrian government fight rebel forces and ISIS. Russia
Central supports Iran, an enemy of US allies Israel and Saudi
Asia Arabia. Russia’s increasing involvement in the Middle East
makes an already difficult region even more complex
3 East Strained relations between North Korea (a Chinese ally) and
China South Korea (a US ally), as North Korea works to become a
Sea nuclear power. China sees South Korea and Japan (US
allies) as economic competitors. All countries have ongoing
disputes over islands in the sea
4 South Numerous disputed islands, claimed by China and US allies
China the Philippines and Taiwan. China has aggressively pursued
Sea a policy of island settlement and artificial island building —
then adding military facilities
5 Central China has shown increasing interest in funding alternative
America routes to the Panama Canal between the Atlantic and Pacific.
This is an area of traditional US hegemony

The South China Sea is a very tense region. China’s ‘Nine-Dashed Line’
and ‘First and Second Island Chain’ policies force it to try and control a
large area of the ocean south and east of China. The USA has considered
this its sphere since the end of the Second World War. The situations in
Ukraine, Georgia and Syria have created refugee crises — in Syria on a
huge scale from 2011 to 2017. This shows there are implications for people
of contested spheres.
Knowledge check 60
Where did Russia invade and occupy in 2014?
Changing relationships
Developing countries
Low-income countries could have new relationships with emerging powers.
An example is China’s interest in Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s least
developed region. China’s interest is based on exploiting Africa’s abundant
and undeveloped physical resources:
• copper ore in Zambia
• crude oil in Angola, Sudan and Chad
• coltan (the ore of niobium and tantalum used in mobile phones) from the
DRC
Exam tip
You need a range of examples to illustrate different geographical locations
contested by powerful countries.
This new relationship has pros and cons (Table 25).
Table 25 China in Africa: opportunities and challenges
Opportunities Challenges
China–Africa relations are based on trade, Countries without natural
not ex-colonial ties resources China wants are
Chinese mines and factories bring jobs and left out
raise incomes and GDP Many jobs are actually done
In order to develop mining and factory by Chinese migrant labour
investment, China has invested huge sums in who number over 1 million
HEP, railways, ports and roads — which can Mining and oil exploitation
be used more widely risks causing deforestation,
China–Africa trade was worth US$200 oil spills and water pollution
billion in 2016, a huge sum for a developing Cheap Chinese imported
region goods have undercut some
local African producers,
especially of textiles
Africa’s economic model is
still cheap raw material
exports, and expensive
manufactured imports

Increasingly, China depends on Africa’s raw materials and Africa relies on

investment from China. This interdependence may benefit both, but a
slow-down in China’s economy would also mean a slow-down in Africa’s.
Synoptic themes
If developing countries align themselves economically and politically with
emerging countries such as India, China and Russia this could have
significant impacts on world trade patterns and geopolitical alliances. So
far, only China has really achieved this in Africa.
Asian tensions
India and China represent 36% of the world’s population, 18% of global
GDP and 32% of global CO2 emissions. Their rising economic importance
to the world cannot be denied. Both are members of the G20, which is an
increasingly important global grouping. The older G8 set up in 1975
consists of indebted developed countries, whereas the G20 includes cash-
rich investor countries.

Exam tip
Make sure you can evaluate the costs and benefits of Chinese investment
in Africa.
China and India relations are interesting.
• They are ideological rivals: India is the world’s largest democracy,
whereas China is a communist dictatorship.
• They share a border, but parts are disputed (Arunachal Pradesh, Tawang,
Aksai Chin), which led to conflict in 1962, 1967 and 1987.
• China has created a strong economic alliance with Pakistan focused on
the US$54 billion Chinese investment in CPEC (China–Pakistan
Economic Corridor), but Pakistan and India have tense, often antagonistic
relations.
• China has the upper-hand in terms of economics, as India has a large
trade deficit with China.
Increasingly, India and China are rivals in outer space. Both have advanced
space programmes. The rocket technology from this also helps develop
their nuclear missile technology. Both have an aircraft carrier, and both are
building more — demonstrating they have regional if not global, naval
ambitions.

Knowledge check 61
Which opposing political systems exist in India and China?

Middle East tensions

The world economy runs on crude oil. The Middle East contains 60% of
proven oil reserves. This is why no superpower or emerging power can
ignore the Middle East.
The Middle East is an area of tension and conflict for a number of reasons.
• Most Muslim countries are hostile to the Jewish state of Israel: Iran has
vowed to destroy it, but the USA is a key ally of Israel.
• Religious differences between Sunni (Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey) and
Shia (Iran, Iraq, Lebanon) branches of the Muslim religion are a source of
conflict between and sometimes within countries.
• Since 2011, the rise of the extremist group Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq
and Syria has created war, terrorism and a refugee crisis.
• The Kurdish people (in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey) are demanding their
own state.
• Since 2015 a civil war has raged in Yemen, which has involved Saudi
Arabia directly and the USA indirectly.

Knowledge check 62
Which two Middle Eastern countries are rivals for regional leadership
there?

The complex web of alliances and geopolitical relations within Middle

Eastern countries is a major ongoing challenge to stability. Russia, and to a
lesser extent China, tend to support Iran within the region. The USA and
EU lean towards Saudi Arabia. The Saudis and Iranians both see
themselves as regional leaders, but relations between them are very poor.
Synoptic themes
Globally, there are perhaps three contrasting cultural ideologies. Western
capitalism (EU, North and South America), the Muslim world (Middle East,
North Africa) and Asian. Attitudes to religion, trade, social relations,
women, sexuality and the environment differ in all three. This means that
geopolitical relationships between them are not always easy.
Existing superpower challenges
Declining USA and EU?
Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2008, the EU and USA have
slowly rebuilt their damaged economies. The crisis caused government debt
levels to increase sharply as money was borrowed to:
• re-finance banks and other businesses facing collapse
• pay social service costs, such as unemployment benefits
• pay for new infrastructure (roads, bridges) in an effort to stimulate
economic growth
By 2016 debt levels had reached 90% of annual GDP in the UK, 75% in the
USA and 214% in Japan. High debt levels, in the long term, may slow
down future economic growth.
Debts levels are pushed up by high social costs (Table 26).
Table 26 Social costs
Structural Economic Ageing and care
unemployment restructuring
Loss of manufacturing The global shift to Asia Rising life expectancy
jobs to emerging has created and low fertility rates
economies through deindustrialisation in mean an ageing
globalisation the EU and USA population
This has led to a pool There are high costs Care home, nursing care
of middle-aged, low linked to regenerating and pension costs are all
skilled, male workers former industrial areas rising
without jobs In addition, the This has to be paid for by
Many rely on social workforce needs a shrinking working-age
security payments retraining and re- population in many EU
from government skilling in tertiary countries
sector jobs

High debt levels, economic restructuring and high social costs represent
an opportunity for India and China. The two emerging powers have a
chance to pull level with the USA and EU because of the ongoing and long-
term nature of these economic and social problems.

Knowledge check 63
Why are social care and pensions costs rising rapidly in the EU?

Exam tip
The EU and USA both have problems, but be careful not to dismiss them.
China has a lot of catching up to do despite these problems!
Superpower costs
The USA spends 3.3% of its GDP (US$596 billion in 2015) on defence, i.e.
hard power. The UK spends 0.7% of its GDP (US$18.7 billion in 2015) on
development assistance (foreign aid), seeing this is a key part of its soft
power.
Faced with rising healthcare and ageing costs, it is easy to question this
spending on military power and space exploration. Figure 42 shows the
USA’s government budget for 2016:
• defence takes up a very large slice, at about 15% of all spending
• intelligence services alone cost about US$80 billion annually
• spending by NASA on space exploration totalled US$18.5 billion in
2016
• each of the USA’s ten planned Gerald R Ford-class aircraft carriers will
cost US$10.4 billion
• simply to test-fire an unarmed Tomahawk cruise missile costs US$1.5
million
The UK, France and USA also spend large sums of money on nuclear
missile technology and civilian nuclear power research. Both of these can
be questioned.

In order to be a truly global superpower, the USA must spend these sums of
money. However, the money could be spent in other ways:
• about 13% of Americans live in poverty (living on less than US$12,000
per year)
• about 60,000 road and rail bridges in the USA need to be repaired
• the over 65s in the USA made up 15% of the population in 2016, this
will rise to 20% by 2030
In the EU, the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2008
have meant government budget cut-backs, especially to defence. Russian
aggression in Ukraine, the Islamic State in the Middle East and China’s
increasing militarisation have not so far been met with increased EU or
USA military spending.
Knowledge check 64
Which type of government spending amounts to 0.7% of UK GDP?

Global power in 2030 and 2050

The future balance of superpowers cannot be known. Future outcomes are
just best guesses based on extrapolating past and current trends, especially
total GDP levels and population.
Three possible scenarios are shown in Table 27.

By 2030:
• A similar world to today, but the Chinese economy is likely to be similar
in size to that of the USA.
• Per capita incomes in China will be lower than the USA, and China will
still be in the process of becoming a fully developed country.
• China is unlikely to be a global political leader by 2030.
By 2050:
• Potentially a very different world with China and India both powerful
economically and militarily (and potential rivals).
• The USA could have similar levels of power and influence to India and
China.
Synoptic themes
There are many unknown quantities that increase uncertainty over future
superpower structures.
• Post-Brexit, and faced with a sluggish economy and huge debts, what is
the future of the EU? It may stagnate as the Japanese economy has done
since the mid-1990s, or renew itself and grow.
• Russia, with its oil and gas reserves and huge military arsenal (including
nuclear weapons), will remain important, but is an unlikely global leader.
• The EU, Russia and even China all face the prospects of rapidly ageing
populations that may diminish their status.
Exam tip
You need to be able to discuss a number of future scenarios, but always
include a judgement about their uncertainty.
Summary
• Superpowers can be defined using a range of criteria to judge their
status, including military, political, economic, demographic and cultural
influence.
• Superpowers and emerging powers use both hard- and soft-power
mechanisms to influence others, with soft power usually being seen as
more important today.
• Patterns of power change over time, between uni-, bi- and multi-polar.
The current uni-polar situation with the USA as hegemon replaced the
bi-polar Cold War in 1990.
• There are half a dozen emerging powers, including the BRICs, but all
have different strengths and weaknesses and do not yet rival the USA.
• The global economy, globalisation and TNCs are all important to
superpower status and have been shaped by superpowers.
• Superpowers play a crucial role in global governance and international
action, responding to disasters and sometimes working to protect the
global environment — but they also have huge demand for natural
resources.
• Political tensions, and even conflict, can arise when the spheres of
influence of superpowers overlap.
• Emerging powers, such as China, may forge a different relationship
with the developing world that contrasts with the colonial and
neocolonial relationship of the past.
• The near future represents a challenge to the USA and EU as both have
economic problems, but the future pattern of superpowers is very
uncertain.