sustainability

Article
Influence of Urbanization Factors on Surface Urban
Heat Island Intensity: A Comparison of Countries at
Different Developmental Phases
Yaoping Cui 1 , Xinliang Xu 2, *, Jinwei Dong 2 and Yaochen Qin 1
1 Collaborative Innovation Center for the “Three Modernization” Harmonious Development of Central Plains
Economic Region, The College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China;
cuiyp@lreis.ac.cn (Y.C.); qinyc@henu.edu.cn (Y.Q.)
2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing 100101, China; dongjw@lreis.ac.cn
* Correspondence: xuxl@lreis.ac.cn; Tel.: +86-10-6488-9038

Academic Editor: Tan Yigitcanlar

Received: 27 May 2016; Accepted: 18 July 2016; Published: 25 July 2016

Abstract: Urbanization is a global problem with demographic trends. The urban heat island plays a
dominant role in local climate systems. Despite existing efforts to understand the impacts of multiple
urbanization factors on the urban heat island globally, very little is known about the attribution of
urban heat island magnitude to urbanization in different locations or developmental phases. In this
study, based on global land surface temperature data, urban spatial domain data, gross domestic
product (GDP), and population data, we analyzed the influence of multiple urbanization factors on
global surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII). We also tentatively compared the abovementioned
factors between different regions across the globe, especially between China and the USA, the
largest countries that are experiencing or have experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades.
The results showed that global SUHII had remarkable spatial heterogeneity due to the geographical
and socioeconomic variation between cities. There was a significant correlation between SUHII
and population as well as GDP in global cities. Moreover, this study suggested that the impacts of
population on SUHII might be stronger in the early stages of urbanization, and the GDP factor would
become a critical factor at a certain development level. The urban area also had non-ignorable impacts
on SUHII, while the correlation between SUHII and urban shape was relatively weak. All these may
imply that the best approach to slow down SUHII is to find other solutions, e.g., optimize the spatial
configuration of urban internal landscapes, when the urbanization reaches a high level.

Keywords: MODIS; space-for-time; SUHII; China; USA

1. Introduction
Urbanization has an important impact on the environment. Although cities cover a tiny fraction
of the world’s surface, urban areas are the nexus of human activity, with more than 50% of the global
population and 7%–90% of economic activity [1]. Urbanization changes climatic systems, threatens
biodiversity, and affects ecosystem productivity through disturbing energy balance and habitats and
the loss of carbon storage and biomass [2,3]. In fact, against the backdrop of climate change, cities
have been regarded as ideal natural laboratories for global change studies, particularly valuable
in elucidating future climate and environmental change as cities experience elevated temperatures
decades ahead of the projected average global warming [4]. Developed countries can also be regarded
as “harbingers” of the future urban warming of developing countries.
Urbanization has a strong influence on regional climate. As the core area of human activity,
cities not only affect regional land use and land cover change (LUCC) but also affect global climate

Sustainability 2016, 8, 706; doi:10.3390/su8080706 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 2 of 14

change [5]. Cities and their surrounding regions tend to experience intensive LUCC due to faster
urban sprawl, more population, and intense human activities. Land surface and atmosphere together
create an interactive system. A large number of artificial architectural landscapes and impervious
surfaces replace the natural underlying surface (farmland, grassland, etc.). Based on the processes of
changing surface energy balance and thermal properties, urbanization leads to a significant influence
on local and regional climate [6]. Climatic differences, especially the temperature difference between
urban and rural areas, always appear and keep increasing with urban sprawl and human aggregation.
Alavipanah et al. (2015) estimated the role of vegetation in mitigating urban land surface temperatures
against the backdrop of rapid urbanization. The results of the study demonstrated that land surface
temperature (LST) within urban vegetation was also affected by the temperature of the surrounding
built-up areas, and suburban areas were cooler than the core of the urbanized region [7]. Therefore, in
almost every aspect, accelerating urbanization will lead to a profound impact on local and regional
climate, and the urban heat island (or surface UHI) effect is one of the most well-known phenomena
caused by urbanization [8,9].
Urbanization includes many different factors, and many types of urban indexes can be used to
indicate the process of urbanization. However, when we focus on the research theme of urbanization
and the urban heat island, almost all of these urbanization factors, no matter the source, can be
placed into three categories: population, economy, and spatial domain. The three basic factors are
interrelated and are always used together to describe urbanization or urban sprawl [10]. Now when
we discuss urbanization, many aspects, like population, economy, and area are included. Therein,
population is a common factor and is widely used to define the urbanization level and urbanization
rate. Oke (1973) used population to describe the urban size. In his study, he linked the observed air
temperature data and population to study the urban heat island (UHI) effect in 11 European cities.
In addition, a significant logarithmic relationship between urban heat island intensity and population
was obtained [11]. Jones and Karl found there was a certain non-linear relationship between population
and urban heat island intensity. They also assessed the effect of urbanization on air temperature and
regional differences appeared in their study [12]. In fact, more and more studies have shown that
UHI have relationship with the urbanization factors, like population, economy, city size, geometric
characteristics, and so on [12–14]. In recent years, some studies have focused on the impact of spatial
landscape configuration on urban heat island intensity [6]. Relative to LST differences of urban and
rural areas, many studies focused on establishing the relationship between the urban space shape
and LST [15–18]. At the landscape level, Li et al. (2011) reported that more patch density would
bring higher LST and more diversity might bring lower LST [19]. Zhou et al. demonstrated (2011)
that although the composition of urban surface cover types had more impact than their configuration
on LST, the spatial shapes of urban surface types also significantly impacted urban LST [20]. These
studies analyze the impacts of the spatial arrangement of urban landscape and percentage of urban
composition on LST [21]. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the effects of urban landscape when
examining the effects of urban sprawl on LST [6].
Some studies focused on the effects of urbanization on the temperature in a typical region or
certain cities [4,22]. However, a single analysis of urban space sprawl, population, or economic factors
cannot reveal the complex relationship between urbanization and UHII. Moreover, studies from
different time periods showed that these results may be hard to directly compare with each other.
Some studies attempted to reveal the impacts of human-induced urbanization on regional climate all
over the world [23–25]. Jin et al. (2005) investigated urban temperatures on a global scale, but they
did not measure heat differentials or relate them to any other variable [26]. Peng et al. (2012) assessed
the diurnal and seasonal variation of SUHII across 419 global big cities, and simply assessed several
potential biophysical and socioeconomic driving factors. However, they neglected spatial variability at
the sub-metropolis scale [27]. The rural areas around cities will direct the SUHII results. Although
Clinton et al. (2013) have detected the SUHII difference with different rural areas, the method used
to define the urban and rural areas meant that it was hard to effectively distinguish the complex
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 3 of 14

footprint of different cities [28]. Moreover, some studies have shown that the related results will differ
significantly depending on the different data used to classify urban and rural areas [29–32].
Despite the fact that many studies have focused on the impact of multiple urbanization factors on
SUHII globally, there are still large discrepancies among these studies and uncertainty exists about
the results. Therefore, this study uses Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST
production, global urban spatial data, population, and gross domestic product (GDP) to analyze the
influence of different urbanization factors on the urban heat island during different development
phases. In the process, a new threshold method was proposed to distinguish the rural areas. We also
compared the difference among different countries, especially China and the USA—the largest
countries that are experiencing or have experienced rapid urbanization in the last decades. This
study aims to answer the following questions: (1) What is the distribution pattern of global SUHII?
(2) What are the relationships between urbanization factors and surface LST on a global scale? and
(3) In different cities with different development levels or phases, are the impacts of urbanization
factors on SUHII the same or similar?

2. Data and Methods

The data used in this study included LST [33], global city space extent data [1], population, and
GDP data [34]. The global urban spatial data for 2001–2002 came from the SAGE Center (Center for
Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA), which used an
ensemble decision tree classification approach to create the high-resolution urban land cover data
based on MODIS 500 m spatial resolution data. The MODIS global LST data of 2003 was obtained from
the online Data Pool maintained by the NASA EOSDIS Land Processes Distributed Active Archive
Center (LP DAAC), USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls,
South Dakota, USA. The global population data was from the World Urbanization Prospects and
Population and Vital Statistics Report. The report on global urban and rural population was issued by
the Population Division of the United Nations [35].
The urban and rural boundaries always decide the precision of the research results. In fact, it is
hard to demarcate accurately. In order to assess urbanization impacts on urban temperature, based
on the spatial analysis of buffers, we combine a threshold value method to confirm the final urban
and rural areas. Additionally, urban heat island intensity was described as the highest temperature
difference between a city and its surrounding countryside [11]. Our previous study had confirmed
that the highest and average LST in a city and its rural areas had a significantly high linear relationship
(correlation coefficient, r = 0.93) [36]. Therefore, in the study, SUHII was defined as the mean LST
difference between urban and rural areas.
The data processes are shown in Figure 1. Following the elemental definition, rural spaces were
based on six spatial buffers of cities (0–5 km, 5–10 km, etc.), namely the surrounding rural areas of
cities. A threshold of the LST difference (˘ 0.2 ˝ C) was used to determine the final buffers, which
represent the different rural regions. Firstly, the buffer of 0–5 km was created because of the suburbs
with mixed urban and rural areas, and the buffer was defined as the fixed suburban region between
the city and the countryside. The prior order of the following buffers was 5–10 km, 0–10 km, 10–15 km,
5–15 km, and 0–15 km. Then, we calculated the temperature differences between near two sequenced
buffers. If the temperature difference was over the threshold of 0.2 ˝ C, the buffer area was only in the
rural area. For example, if the absolute value of the LST difference between the 0–5 km buffer and the
urban area was less than the threshold, the data process would continue. If the threshold (or more
than the threshold) of the LST difference happened between the 0–5 km and 5–10 km buffers, then the
0–10 km buffer was considered as the rural area of the city. Due to this order, if the absolute value of
the LST difference was more than 0.2 ˝ C, the corresponding buffer area meant the rural area. In an
extreme situation, if all the LST differences of buffers could not be more than the threshold, then a
buffer of 0–15 km is defined directly as the rural areas.
Sustainability 2016, 8,
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 4 of 14

Figure 1.
Figure Flowchart of
1. Flowchart of procedures
procedures of
of study.
study.

Simultaneously,
Simultaneously, ininorder ordertoto analyze
analyze thethe relationship
relationship between
between SUHIISUHII and urbanization,
and urbanization, four
four urban
urban
expansionexpansion factors
factors were were namely,
selected: selected:Population
namely, (aPopulation (a key factor),
key urbanization urbanization factor), GDP
GDP (represents the
(represents the level of economic activity), Area (a typical spatial factor, which is very suitable
level of economic activity), Area (a typical spatial factor, which is very suitable to define the level and to
define
scale ofthe leveland
cities), andurban
scale spatial
of cities), andSurban
index spatial
(the more index or
complex S (the more
prolate thecomplex
shape ofor prolatethe
patches, thegreater
shape
of
thepatches,
value ofthe S). greater the value of S).

3. Results
Resultsand
andAnalysis
Analysis

3.1. The
3.1. The Distribution
Distribution Pattern
Pattern of
of the
the SUHII
SUHII
Global distribution
Global distribution ofof SUHII
SUHII was was hard
hard to to show
show in in one
one map
map as as the
the proportion
proportion of of urban
urban areas
areas was
was
very small. Thus, we used a province administrative boundary as a
very small. Thus, we used a province administrative boundary as a base map to show the spatial base map to show the spatial
pattern
pattern ofof the
the global
globalSUHII
SUHIIatatthe theprovince
provincescale.
scale.Namely,
Namely,allallthetheSUHII
SUHII values
values of of
cities in in
cities a province
a provinceor
state administrative region were averaged (Figure 2). The result showed
or state administrative region were averaged (Figure 2). The result showed that the distribution that the distribution pattern
of SUHII
pattern ofwas
SUHIIsignificantly differentdifferent
was significantly with thewithspatial
the pattern of global
spatial pattern ofLST
globalbecause urban and
LST because urbannearby
and
areas were significant influenced by human activities. Among the different
nearby areas were significant influenced by human activities. Among the different regions, most regions, most cities showed
warming situations
cities showed warming except for several
situations regions
except near the
for several Equator
regions nearorthe
ocean,
Equatorwhichor had
ocean,a small
which orhad
evena
negative
small or SUHII (Cool Island)
even negative SUHII[37]. TheIsland)
(Cool following[37].reasons might contribute
The following reasons mightto these special situations.
contribute to these
One possible
special reasonOne
situations. waspossible
that the reason
LST couldwasnot indicate
that the LST thecould
highernot background
indicate the temperature. Secondly,
higher background
the ocean might have a moderating effect to temperature anomalies
temperature. Secondly, the ocean might have a moderating effect to temperature anomalies of coastal cities. Thirdly, someof
biophysical parameters, such as the albedo of the surface material types in urban
coastal cities. Thirdly, some biophysical parameters, such as the albedo of the surface material types areas, may be higher
than
in in surrounding
urban areas, mayareas [2]. Inthan
be higher addition, other climate
in surrounding factors
areas [2]. like more clouds
In addition, otherand precipitation
climate factors also
like
had an impact on the phenomenon.
more clouds and precipitation also had an impact on the phenomenon.
SUHII varied
SUHII varied in
in different
differenturbanization
urbanizationareas. areas.TheThehigher
higherSUHII
SUHII values
values mostly
mostly diddid
notnot appear
appear in
in economically developed areas (Figure 2). As we know, higher surface
economically developed areas (Figure 2). As we know, higher surface temperature appears when temperature appears when
humans aggregate
humans aggregate in in urban
urban areas
areas andand change
change the the natural
natural land
land surface. Although the
surface. Although the process
process ofof
urbanization and its impacts on SUHII may be similar, the specific
urbanization and its impacts on SUHII may be similar, the specific features—percentage, features—percentage, composition,
and arrangement
composition, andofarrangement
land use and of land cover
land usetypes—in
and land each city were
cover types—invarious.eachMoreover,
city were thevarious.
specific
developmental
Moreover, process,developmental
the specific level, and phase were level,
process, different
andinphase
each were
country or region.
different in eachAlthough
countrythe or
spatial pattern of SUHII indicated the complex results of urbanization,
region. Although the spatial pattern of SUHII indicated the complex results of urbanization, how how should we interpret the
relationship
should betweenthe
we interpret SUHII and urbanization
relationship between factors?
SUHII and What is the intrinsic
urbanization reason
factors? of heterogeneity
What is the intrinsicof
SUHII?of
reason Inheterogeneity
order to explain the problem,
of SUHII? thisto
In order study selected
explain 296 big cities
the problem, of the selected
this study world to296 analyze.
big cities
of the world to analyze.
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 5 of 14

Figure 2. Spatial pattern of the global surface urban heat island intensity (˝ C) (space unit:
Figure 2. Spatial pattern of the global surface urban heat island intensity (°C) (space unit:
province/state).
province/state).

3.2. The Analysis of Global Cities

3.2. The Analysis of Global Cities
SUHII may be remarkably high in cities with more economic activity and more population. In this
SUHII may be remarkably high in cities with more economic activity and more population. In
section, 296 global cities spread over the world were chosen according to factors including the urban
this section, 296 global cities spread over the world were chosen according to factors including the
position (the capital, economic hub), population (the world’s top 500), and built-up area. The Pearson
urban position (the capital, economic hub), population (the world’s top 500), and built-up area. The
correlation coefficients between the SUHII and urbanization factors are listed in Table 1. The results
Pearson correlation coefficients between the SUHII and urbanization factors are listed in Table 1. The
partially showed that SUHII had a significant relationship with population (p = 0.01), GDP (p = 0.01),
results partially showed that SUHII had a significant relationship with population (p = 0.01), GDP (p
and urban area (p = 0.05), but the correlation was insignificant with the urban shape S.
= 0.01), and urban area (p = 0.05), but the correlation was insignificant with the urban shape S.
Table 1. The Pearson relationship of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) and various
Table 1. The Pearson relationship of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) and various
urbanization factors.
urbanization factors.
SUHII GlobalGlobal
Cities (nCities
= 296) Major Major 1
Cities (n = 62) 1 (n = 62) 1
ChinaChina
(n = 18)
1 (n = 18) USA 1 (n 1=(n
29)= 29)
(n = 296) Cities USA
SUHII
(Sig.) (Sig.)
r r Sig. Sig. r r Sig. Sig. r r Sig. Sig. r r Sig.Sig.
Population
Population 0.164 0.164 0.002 0.002 0.324 0.324 0.005 0.668
0.005 0.6680.001 0.681
0.001 0.681 0.000 0.000
GDP 0.168 0.002 0.418 0.000 0.557 0.008 0.758 0.000
GDP
Area 0.103 0.168 0.039 0.002 0.349 0.418 0.003 0.000
0.579 0.5570.006 0.0080.6500.758 0.000 0.000
SArea 0.025 0.103 0.337 0.0390.138 0.3490.142 0.003 0.350 0.579 0.077 0.0060.4540.650 0.007 0.000
1 The major cities are those whose built-up areas are greater than 500 km2 . Eighteen cities in China and 29 cities
S 0.025 0.337 0.138 0.142 0.350 0.077 0.454 0.007
in the USA were chosen, mainly located between 30˝ N and 45˝ N.
1The major cities are those whose built-up areas are greater than 500 km2. Eighteen cities in China
and 29 cities in the USA were chosen, mainly located between 30° N and 45° N.
The linear fitting method and four nonlinear fitting methods including logistic, inverse, quadratic,
The linear
and cubic were usedfitting methodthe
to analyze and four nonlinear
attribution of SUHII.fitting methods
The results including
indicated logistic,
that the SUHIIinverse,
values
in most of the major cities of the world were less than 2.5 ˝ C. There were 285 cities withthat
quadratic, and cubic were used to analyze the attribution of SUHII. The results indicated the
SUHII
SUHII
less values
than 5.0 ˝inC,most of the major
accounting cities of
for 96.3% ofthe
allworld were cities
the major less than 2.5 °C.
in this ThereFigure
study. were 285 cities with
3a meant the
SUHII less than 5.0 °C, accounting for 96.3% of all the major cities in this study. Figure
relationship between SUHII and the population. Generally, SUHII had a certain degree of logarithmic 3a meant the
relationship between SUHII and the population. Generally, SUHII had a certain degree of
relationship with population (Figure 3b), but the fitting degree was low (maximum R2 = 0.046,
logarithmic relationship with population (Figure 3b), but the fitting degree was low (maximum R2 =
p < 0.001). Correlations between SUHII and GDP, and SUHII and Area were present, while the shape
0.046, p < 0.001). Correlations between SUHII and GDP, and SUHII and Area were present, while the
index S of cities still did not show a correlation with SUHII (Figure 3a–e).
shape index S of cities still did not show a correlation with SUHII (Figure 3a–e).
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 6 of 14
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 6 of 14

(a) (b) (c)

(d) (e) (f)

Figure 3.3.Partial
Figure Partialfitting
fittingfigures
figures
of of
thethe urban
urban heat
heat island
island intensity
intensity (SUHII)
(SUHII) and urbanization
and urbanization factors.
factors. (a,b)
(a,b) Mean relationship between SUHII and population, and logarithmic population;
Mean relationship between SUHII and population, and logarithmic population; (c–e) mean relationship (c–e) mean
relationship
between between
SUHII and the SUHII
GDP,and theand
area, GDP, area,shape
urban and urban
indexshape index S, respectively;
S, respectively; (f) of
(f) the result thestepwise
result of
stepwise regression fitting
regression fitting with GDP. with GDP.

On the global scale, there were no obvious rules to the distribution pattern of SUHII (Figure 2).
On the global scale, there were no obvious rules to the distribution pattern of SUHII (Figure 2).
We selected some typical samples from 62 major cities whose built-up areas were greater than 500
We selected some typical samples from 62 major cities whose built-up areas were greater than 500 km2
km2 to analyze the influence of urbanization factors on SUHII. Generally, the SUHII values of large
to analyze the influence of urbanization factors on SUHII. Generally, the SUHII values of large cities are
cities are obvious, and the relationship between SUHII and urbanization factors is clear. The results
obvious, and the relationship between SUHII and urbanization factors is clear. The results of Pearson
of Pearson correlation analysis showed that the SUHII and GDP, population, and urban area all
correlation analysis showed that the SUHII and GDP, population, and urban area all showed a certain
showed a certain correlation, with correlation coefficients of 0.42, 0.32, and 0.42, respectively (Table
correlation, with correlation coefficients of 0.42, 0.32, and 0.42, respectively (Table 1). These results
1). These results were similar to the results from the global cities, and the correlation coefficients
were similar to the results from the global cities, and the correlation coefficients were bigger. Moreover,
were bigger. Moreover, the effect of population on SUHII was stronger than that of GDP. The
the effect of population on SUHII was stronger than that of GDP. The stepwise regression analysis also
stepwise regression analysis also confirmed the result (the whole fitting degree was 0.175, p < 0.01).
confirmed the result (the whole fitting degree was 0.175, p < 0.01). In particular, Figure 3f shows the
In particular, Figure 3f shows the result of stepwise regression fitting, in which the best fitting
result of stepwise regression fitting, in which the best fitting coefficient reached 0.24 with the cubic
coefficient reached 0.24 with the cubic fitting method (p < 0.01).
fitting method (p < 0.01).
In short, it is hard to find rules that apply to all 296 cities, but in the selected major cities, SUHII
In short, it is hard to find rules that apply to all 296 cities, but in the selected major cities, SUHII is
is significantly related with GDP, population, and urban area, while the relationship between SUHII
significantly related with GDP, population, and urban area, while the relationship between SUHII and
and S was insignificant.
S was insignificant.
3.3. Comparison
3.3. Comparison Analysis
Analysis on
on China
China and
and the
the United
United States
States
In order
In order to
to explore
explore the
the regional
regional SUHII,
SUHII, 1818 cities
cities in
in China
China andand 29
29 cities
cities in
in the
the United
United States,
States,
mainly located
mainly locatedat at 30–45°
30–45 N, were
˝ N, were chosenchosen to the
to analyze analyze the relationship
relationship between SUHIIbetween SUHII and
and urbanization
urbanization factors (Figure 4). These cities had similar urbanization attributes (namely,
factors (Figure 4). These cities had similar urbanization attributes (namely, all are regional centers all are
and have huge areas and populations), but they had various urbanization levels and wereand
regional centers and have huge areas and populations), but they had various urbanization levels in
were in different developmental phases. Analyzing major cities in China and
different developmental phases. Analyzing major cities in China and the United States, the the United States, the
largest countries that are experiencing or have experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades,
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 7 of 14

Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 7 of 14

largest countries that are experiencing or have experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades,
could
could help
help with
with understanding
understanding the
the SUHII
SUHII of
of various
various countries
countries or
or regions
regions at
at different
different urbanization
urbanization
developmental
developmental phases.
phases.

Figure
Figure 4.4.Main
Main cities and
cities their
and surface
their urban
surface heatheat
urban island intensity
island (°C) in
intensity China
(˝ C) and theand
in China USA.
theChina
USA.
(18): Shanghai, Shenyang, Anshan, Baotou, Beijing, Tangshan, Hangzhou,
China (18): Shanghai, Shenyang, Anshan, Baotou, Beijing, Tangshan, Hangzhou, Shijiazhuang,Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan,
Jinan, Zhengzhou,
Taiyuan, Xi’an, Hefei,
Jinan, Zhengzhou, Chengdu,
Xi’an, Hefei, Tianjin,
Chengdu,Dalian, Lanzhou,
Tianjin, Dalian,Nanjing;
Lanzhou, USA (29): New
Nanjing; USAYork,
(29):
Boston,
New York, Richmond, Los Angeles,
Boston, Richmond, LosSan Diego,San
Angeles, Baltimore, Portland, Portland,
Diego, Baltimore, Toronto, Milwaukee, Buffalo,
Toronto, Milwaukee,
Detroit, Washington,
Buffalo, Detroit, Chicago,
Washington, Cleveland,
Chicago, Pittsburgh,
Cleveland, Salt Salt
Pittsburgh, Lake City,
Lake City,Indianapolis,
Indianapolis,Cincinnati,
Cincinnati,
Kansas
Kansas City, St. Louis, San Francisco, Raleigh, Oklahoma City, Charlotte, Memphis,Atlanta,
City, St. Louis, San Francisco, Raleigh, Oklahoma City, Charlotte, Memphis, Atlanta,El
ElPaso,
Paso,
Austin, Houston.
Austin, Houston.

Both in China and the United States, there were significant relationships between SUHII and
Both in China and the United States, there were significant relationships between SUHII and
population, GDP, and area, while, the relationship between SUHII and urban shape was relatively
population, GDP, and area, while, the relationship between SUHII and urban shape was relatively
weak. In terms of China, the results of linear stepwise regression also indicated that population, the
weak. In terms of China, the results of linear stepwise regression also indicated that population, the
main urbanization factor, was also a main impact factor on SUHII (SUHII = 1.402 + 0.001 *
main urbanization factor, was also a main impact factor on SUHII (SUHII = 1.402 + 0.001 * population,
population,
2 R2 = 0.446). In terms of the United States, GDP was the maximum correlation coefficient
R = 0.446). In terms of the United States, GDP was the maximum correlation coefficient (r = 0.76).
(r = 0.76). These results were similar to the results from major global cities, indicating that urban
These results were similar to the results from major global cities, indicating that urban population,
population, GDP, and area all had important impacts on SUHII (Table 1). GDP may replace
GDP, and area all had important impacts on SUHII (Table 1). GDP may replace population as the
population as the primary factor when urban development reaches a certain level or stage.
primary factor when urban development reaches a certain level or stage.
We compared the SUHII values in major cities of China with those of the USA; the detail fitting
We compared the SUHII values in major cities of China with those of the USA; the detail fitting
maps are shown in Figure 5. It can be seen that SUHII values in China were between 1.2 and 1.8 °C,
maps are shown in Figure 5. It can be seen that SUHII values in China were between 1.2 and 1.8 ˝ C,
while the SUHII values in most cities of the USA were between 1.0 and 2.0 °C. The fitting results in
while the SUHII values in most cities of the USA were between 1.0 and 2.0 ˝ C. The fitting results in
China were more complex. This may be associated with the various development forms and levels,
China were more complex. This may be associated with the various development forms and levels, and
and urban sprawl patterns. Moreover, we found that the SUHII values presented logarithmic
urban sprawl patterns. Moreover, we found that the SUHII values presented logarithmic relationships
relationships with the human economic activity intensity indexes in China, but had an exponential
with the human economic activity intensity indexes in China, but had an exponential relationship with
relationship with the urban Area and shape index S (Figure 5a–d). However, the situation in the USA
the urban Area and shape index S (Figure 5a–d). However, the situation in the USA was simple. The
was simple. The cities in China and USA all showed a liner correlation between SUHII and
cities in China and USA all showed a liner correlation between SUHII and population, GDP, and Area.
population, GDP, and Area. On the other hand, city shape index was expressed better by a nonlinear
On the other hand, city shape index was expressed better by a nonlinear quadratic function than by a
quadratic function than by a linear one (Figure 5e–h).
linear one (Figure 5e–h).
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 8 of 14
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 8 of 14

(a) (b) (c) (d)

(e) (f) (g) (h)

Figure 5. Partial fitting figures of SUHII values and urbanization factors in China and the USA. (a–d) Mean relationship between SUHII and population, GDP, Area, and
Figure 5. Partial fitting figures of SUHII values and urbanization factors in China and the USA. (a–d) Mean relationship between SUHII and population, GDP, Area,
urban shape index S in China; (e–h) mean relationship between SUHII and population, GDP, area, and shape index S in the USA, respectively.
and urban shape index S in China; (e–h) mean relationship between SUHII and population, GDP, area, and shape index S in the USA, respectively.
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 9 of 14

In order to effectively analyze the interactions and different impacts of the four urbanization
factors, we also used the statistical method of multiple linear regression. Although the multiple r
in China and the USA all showed that there was obvious correlation between SUHII values and
urbanization factors (r (China) = 0.75 and r (USA) = 0.77), adjusted fitting coefficient (R2 ) showed the
four factors only represented 38% and 53% in China and USA, respectively. The regression results for
the USA passed the significance test (F = 0.0003), while the results of China did not pass the significance
test (F = 0.064), which indicates that a very complicated urbanization exists in China. The basic weights
or impacts of urbanization factors on SUHII could be represented by the standardized coefficients
(beta), although the statistical correlation of most factors both in China and the USA were not significant
(Table 2). Additionally, the population in China and GDP in the USA all passed the significance test.
The results were similar to the results of correlation analysis, showing that the urbanization factor had
an important impact on SUHII in the two countries.

Table 2. The standardized coefficients of multiple linear regression.

China USA
Unstandardized Standardized Unstandardized Standardized
Sig. Sig.
Coefficients (B) Coefficients (Beta) Coefficients (B) Coefficients (Beta)
Constant 1.391 6.427 1.257 0.031
Area 0.0001 0.208 0.869 ´0.0003 ´0.427 0.438
S ´0.027 ´0.081 0.806 0.128 0.170 0.485
Population 0.001 1.715 0.042 ´0.0003 ´0.061 0.931
GDP ´5.758 ˆ 10´6 ´1.244 0.326 9.151 ˆ 10´6 1.110 0.014

4. Discussion

4.1. The Importance of Uniform Analysis Scale

Urban spatial data had great influence on the accuracy of the overall results in this study.
Chen et al. (2015) created two datasets based on new global urban land cover mapping in 2000 and
2010 [38]. However, the high spatial resolution (30 m) of the data is so high that some fragmentation of
urban areas always occurs on the global analysis scale. MODIS land cover production provides the
urban and urban-related spatial data, but it cannot be used to do time-series studies due to its internal
restriction. Global impervious surface data is made by inputting Nighttime Lights & LandScan data,
while the data of 2000 still hardly compares with the data of 2010 directly because of the difference
between coarse and fine resolution [39]. However, it is very difficult to differentiate between urban
and rural areas. In fact, the urban land includes the urban land and urban teleconnections land
(urban-impact areas) [3]. Considering the general definitions of urban land, currently there are three
different results [40]. One of the definitions is “urban area”, delineated by administrative boundaries;
another is “built-up area”, dominated by artificial surfaces; and the third term is “impervious surface”,
which refers to human-made land covers that water cannot penetrate [41,42]. So, if we want to assess
the urban sprawl or SUHII, we must choose a suitable urban data. In this study, we considered the
urban data problem and finally chose the global urban data with a 500 m resolution [1].
The singular and atypical temperature value can be eliminated or restrained using the monthly
and annual average data, which can be used to show the urban heat island effect better [12]. Thus,
we used the annual average LST. Different studies on the impact of urbanization and other factors on
SUHII may have different results [43–45]. There are many methods that can be used, but the results
will always be different. Oke (1973) had reported that there was a clear correlation between city size
(as defined by urban population) and the UHI [11]. Clinton and Gong (2013) found that the population
and urban structure indices were of lesser importance for urban heat island intensity [28], which is
consistent with our study. Different studies also have various results even in the same area [46–49].
These SUHII value gaps are largely due to the influence of data source, accuracy, time range, and
spatial resolution. The majority of SUHII values were between 0.0 ˝ C and 5.0 ˝ C in this study. In some
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 10 of 14

special situations, a higher SUHII may appear in some cities in a certain period. For example, some
results show that the average SUHII was 8.6–8.9 ˝ C in London (the average in 2000) [50] and 3–13 ˝ C
in Tokyo (the 2001–2003 average) [51]. According to this study, the SUHII values of London and Tokyo
were 2.0 ˝ C and 3.8 ˝ C, respectively. In fact, the SUHII in a city is ever-changing and produces various
readings over time, and so it is hard to compare results when these studies are done independently.
Thus, it is necessary to analyze the SUHII under a uniform scale. Moreover, discontinuous urban
spatial data are hard to directly analyze continuous LST data because global data resources limit the
ability to observe and quantify this temporal process of urbanization and SUHII. Therefore, we adopt
a concept of “space-for-time” to tentatively resolve the data problem.
From a viewpoint of statistics and matrix algebra, it is assumed that the development over time
of a system under study is determined by the unobserved series with which a series of observations
spatially is associated. The relation between unobserved series and observed series is specified by
the space. The main purpose of space analysis is to infer relevant properties of unobserved series
from observations [52]. In fact, the idea of space-for-time has always been used to infer past or
future trajectories in previous studies [53]. Therefore, the theoretical foundation supports our analysis
framework here.

4.2. Various Urbanization Factors among Countries at Different Developmental Stages

The spatial distribution of SUHII can be directly seen in our results and others’, but the study
results also imply the time differences of different development phases. In some developed countries,
such as some European countries and the United States, which have higher urbanization levels and
lower population growth rates, urbanization usually shows lower expansion rates in recent years.
However, from a long-term perspective (decades), with the development of urbanization, the urban
population, economy, and area will increase prominently, particularly in many developing countries.
Take China as an example: along with fast economic growth, the scale of urbanization in China during
the past 30 years is unprecedented and the urban population in China reached 51.3% in 2011 [54].
To some degree, developed countries predict the future urban phases of developing countries. With
uniform data and results, the different levels of developing and developed countries can be regarded
as different development phases in one country or region.
We compared the results of China with those of the United States. SUHII was evidently related
to population, GDP, urban area, and even shape index S in China, while the results in the United
States indicated that GDP was a more significantly related factor than population and urban area.
Meanwhile, global major cities all indicated that population plays an important role in SUHII. Based
on the urban proportions data, about 54.0% of the world’s population was residing in urban areas in
2014, and the average annual rate of change from 2010 to 2015 was 0.9% [35]. The United States had
more than 81.0% of the population living in urban areas and the average annual change rate from 2010
to 2015 was 0.2%. China had 54.0% of the population living in urban areas and the average annual
rate of change from 2010 to 2015 was 2.4% (Figure 6). We can suppose that the situations of the United
States and China represent two typical situations, namely the high urbanization levels of a developed
country and the low urbanization levels of a developing country. All in all, the global urbanization
level is moderate. This implies that SUHII is more sensitive to almost all of the urbanization factors
during the increasing phase. When urbanization is higher, population and GDP together play an
important role in SUHII. When the urbanization level is very high and keeps increasing incrementally,
urbanization may need urban land and population. In addition, the economy (GDP) has a strong
influence on SUHII. Therefore, it can potentially keep the SUHII stable when urban development
is under certain conditions (e.g., optimizing urban internal landscapes). Many new studies have
proven that both vegetation types and water have a negative correlation with LST [7,14,28]. Moreover,
vegetation growth enhancement may be prevalent in an urban environment because urban vegetation
is usually influenced by urban greening, well management, and urban heat island, etc. [4].
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 11 of 14
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 11 of 14

Figure 6.6.Urban
Figure Urbanproportion
proportionandandthethe
annual change
annual rate rate
change of theofurban population.
the urban Here, the
population. blue
Here, blocks
the blue
with numbers
blocks are theare
with numbers annual changechange
the annual rate ofrate
the of
urban population
the urban from 2010
population from to 2050;
2010 the gray
to 2050; and
the gray
yellow blocksblocks
and yellow represent the urban
represent theproportion of 2014 and
urban proportion of 2050,
2014 respectively. The country classification
and 2050, respectively. The country
by income level
classification by is based level
income on 2012 grosson
is based national income
2012 gross per capita
national incomefrom
perthe World
capita Bank.
from The data
the World for
Bank.
China do not
The data includedoHong
for China Kong and
not include Macao,
Hong KongSpecial Administrative
and Macao, Regions (SAR)Regions
Special Administrative of China.(SAR) of
China.
In this study, the concept of “space-for-time” used is not a method but an extensional expression
of theInresults.
this study,
In fact, the
this concept of “space-for-time”
is a new exploration and tentative usedattempt
is notusing
a method but an
the concept extensional
in the research
field. Although it can interpret the SUHII results and support the basic conclusion to some extent, in
expression of the results. In fact, this is a new exploration and tentative attempt using the concept it
the research
should be notedfield. Although
that, it can of
in the process interpret the SUHII
urbanization, thereresults and support
are various development the basic
stylesconclusion
in differentto
some extent,
regions, which it could
shouldbeberelated
noted to that,
morein the process
complex of urbanization,
influence factors like there are various
landscape index, development
policy, and
styles in different regions, which could be related to more complex
culture. The urbanization tracks at a large scale of geographical regions can potentially be influence factors like landscape
similar
index, policy, and culture. The urbanization tracks at a large scale of
but specific to a single city; there are still some uncertainties. Therefore, further studies are needed geographical regions can
potentially
to validate be thissimilar but specific
assumption in the tofuture.
a single Additionally,
city; there are spatial
still somedatauncertainties.
are used toTherefore,
analyze the further
LST
studies are needed to validate this assumption in the future. Additionally,
and GDP differences between urban and rural areas, but statistical population data are based on the spatial data are used to
analyze the LST and GDP differences between urban and rural areas, but
administrative boundary. Although the data is explicit when we link two-dimension spatial data, like statistical population data
are based
remote sensingon orthe administrative
geographic data, with boundary.
one-dimension Although the data,
statistical data the is uncertainty
explicit when is stillwe
hardlink
to
two-dimension spatial
eliminate in the results. data, like remote sensing or geographic data, with one-dimension statistical
data, the uncertainty is still hard to eliminate in the results.
5. Conclusions
5. Conclusions
This study analyzed the relationship between urbanization factors and SUHII, and some basic
This study
conclusions wereanalyzed
obtained.the Fromrelationship between
the perspective urbanization factors
of space-for-time, no matter and theSUHII, and somephase,
urbanization basic
conclusions were obtained. From the perspective of space-for-time,
GDP, population, and area had important impacts on SUHII all the time, especially in major cities. no matter the urbanization
phase,
The GDP,
results population,
also showed that and thearea hadofimportant
effects population impacts
on SUHII on might
SUHIIbe alllarge
the time,
in theespecially in major
early urbanization
cities. The
stages, whileresults also showed
the effects of GDP thatwould thebecome
effects of population
greater at higher on urbanization
SUHII might levels. be large in the
Urban early
spatial
urbanization stages, while the effects of GDP would
shape was of lesser importance in the urbanization process of major cities. become greater at higher urbanization levels.
Urban spatialthat
It seems shape wasurbanization
world of lesser importance
will grow in for
the aturbanization
least the next process
several of decades,
major cities.
and increasing
population, GDP, and urban sprawl is a potentially unavoidable scenario. Given theand
It seems that world urbanization will grow for at least the next several decades, increasing
situation, our
population, GDP, and urban sprawl is a potentially unavoidable scenario.
study has important implications for future cities. It is important to consider the sustainability of cities Given the situation, our
studyincreased
with has important
economy implications
and population,for future
bothcities. It ishave
of which important to consider
important impactsthe on sustainability
urban warming. of
cities with increased economy and population, both of which have
However, based on our results, it is very likely that optimizing the spatial configuration of urban important impacts on urban
warming.
internal However,may
landscapes basedbe on
theour
bestresults,
approach it isto
very likelythe
keeping that optimizing
SUHII stable whenthe spatial configuration
urbanization reachesof
aurban internal landscapes may be the best approach to keeping the SUHII stable when urbanization
high level.
reaches a high level.

Acknowledgment: This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.
41401504 & 41371409), the Chinese National Basic Research Program (No. 2014CB954302), and Key Scientific
Sustainability 2016, 8, 706 12 of 14

Acknowledgments: This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
(No. 41401504 & 41371409), the Chinese National Basic Research Program (No. 2014CB954302), and Key Scientific
and Technological Projects of Henan Province (No. 152102310296). The authors would like to thank Jordan Woodward
and Sadia Afrin from the University of Oklahoma for proofreading the paper. We are also grateful to the editor
and the anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.
Author Contributions: Yaoping Cui and Xinliang Xu performed programming work, analysis, and discussions,
and Yaoping Cui wrote most sections of the manuscript. Xinliang Xu, Jinwei Dong, and Yaochen Qin supplied
suggestions and comments for the manuscript. All authors reviewed and polished the manuscript.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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