Republic of the Philippines

BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY

The National Engineering University
Alangilan Campus
Golden Country Homes, Alangilan, Batangas City, Batangas,
Philippines 4200 Tel No. (+63 43) 425-0139 loc. 2121 / 2221
E-mail Address: ceafa@g.batstate-u.edu.ph | Website Address: http://www.batstate-u.edu.ph

College of Engineering
Department of Electronics Engineering
Math 403 – Engineering Data Analysis
Problem Set No. 1

Name: Jason B. Mojado Section: ECE 2101

SR Code: 22-05888 Date:

Directions: Solve the following problems completely. Include the graphs/tables for probability
distribution problems.

1. If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events with P (A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3, and P(C) = 0.4,
determine the following probabilities:
a. P(A ∪ B ∪ C) c. P(A ∩ B) e. P(A’ ∩ B’ ∩ C’)
b. P(A ∩ B ∩ C) d. P[(A ∪ B) ∩ C]
Given that :
P(A) = 0.2
P(B) = 0.3
P(C) = 0.4
a) P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P(B) + P(C)
= 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.4 = 0.9
b) P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A ∩ B) - P(B ∩ C) - P(A ∩ C) - P( A ∩ B ∩ C )
= 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.4 - 0.9
=0
c) P(A ∩ B) = 0

d) P[(A ∪ B) ∩ C] = P ( A ∪ B ) + P(C) - P(A ∪ B ∪ C )

= P(A) + P (B) + P(C) - 0.9
= 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.4 - 0.9
=0
e) P(A’ ∩ B’ ∩ C’) = 1- P ( A ∪ B ∪ C )
= 1 - 0.9
= 0.1

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2. A lot of 100 semiconductor chips contain 20 that are defective. Two are selected randomly,
without replacement, from the lot.
a. What is the probability that the first one selected is defective?

From the given information ,a lot of 100 semiconductor chips contain 20 that are defective.
Total no. of chips = 100
No. of defectives = 20
Let : A = event that the first one selected is defective
B = events that the second one selected is defective

P(A) = 20𝐶₁/100𝐶₂
= 20/100
= 0.2

b. What is the probability that the second one selected is defective given that the first
one was defective?
The probability that second one selected is defective given that the first one was
defective is,
P(B⏐A) = P(A ∩ B) /P(A)
20 19
×
= 100
20
99

100

19
= 99

= 0.1919

c. What is the probability that both are defective?

P(A ∩ B)= P(A) P(B)

d. How does the answer to part (b) change if chips selected were replaced prior to the
next selection?

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3. Suppose 2% of cotton fabric rolls and 3% of nylon fabric rolls contain flaws. Of the rolls used
by a manufacturer, 70% are cotton and 30% are nylon. What is the probability that a randomly
selected roll used by the manufacturer contains flaws?

For a random fabric roll of this manufacturer define events:

A - It is a cotton fabric roll

B - it contain flaws

P(B) = ?

P(B⏐A) = 0.02

P(B⏐A’)= 0.03

P(A’) = 0.3

P(A) = 0.7

Now we use the total probability rule for two events

P(B) = P(B⏐A)P(A) + P(B⏐2-7)’(A)

= 0.02 · 0.7 + 0.03 · 0.3

= 0.023

4. Marketing estimates that a new instrument for the analysis of soil samples will be very
successful, moderately successful, or unsuccessful, with probabilities 0.3, 0.6, and 0.1,
respectively. The yearly revenue associated with a very successful, moderately successful, or
unsuccessful product is $10 million, $5 million, and $1 million, respectively. Let the random
variable X denotes the yearly revenue of the product. Determine the probability mass function of
X.

X P(X)

10 0.3

5 0.6

1 0.1

f(10)= P (X= $10 million) = 0.3

f(5)= P (X= $5 million) = 0.6
f(1)= P (X= $1 million) = 0.1

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5. An assembly consists of three mechanical components. Suppose that the probabilities that the
first, second, and third components meet specifications are 0.95, 0.98, and 0.99. Assume that the
components are independent. Determine the probability mass function of the number of
components in the assembly that meet specifications.

X is the number of components that are in line with specifications, it can take on values 0,1,2,3
Let:

A - the first component meets specifications

B - the second component meets specifications

C - the third component meets specifications

Given:

A, B, C are independent

P(A) =0.95 ⇒P(A′)=0.05

P(B)=0.98 ⇒P(B′)=0.02

P(C)=0.99 ⇒P(C′)=0.01​

Probability mass function of X (called f) is found using property (3) of its definition:

f(0) =P(X=0)

=P(A′∩B′∩C′)

=P(A′)P(B′)P(C′)

=0.05⋅0.02⋅0.01

=0.00001

f(1) =P(X=1)

=P[(A′∩B′∩C)∪(A′∩B∩C′)∪(A∩B′∩C′)]

=P(A′∩B′∩C)+P(A′∩B∩C′)+P(A∩B′∩C′)

=P(A′)P(B′)P(C)+P(A′)P(B)P(C′)+P(A)P(B′)P(C′)

=0.05⋅0.02⋅0.99+0.05⋅0.98⋅0.01+0.95⋅0.02⋅0.01

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 =0.00167

Using the same properties:

f(2) =P(X=2)

=P[(A′∩B∩C)∪(A∩B′∩C)∪(A∩B∩C′)]

=P(A′)P(B)P(C)+P(A)P(B′)P(C)+P(A)P(B)P(C′)

=0.05⋅0.98⋅0.99+0.95⋅0.02⋅0.99+0.95⋅0.98⋅0.01

=0.07663

f(3) =P(X=3)

=P(A∩B∩C)

=P(A)P(B)P(C)

=0.95⋅0.98⋅0.99

=0.92169

For x other than 0,1,2,3, f(x)=P(X=x)=0

Using the definition of probability mass function and independence calculate

f(0)=0.00001, f(1)=0.00167, f(2)=0.07663, f(3)=0.92169

f=0 everywhere else.

6. Marketing estimates that a new instrument for the analysis of soil samples will be very
successful, moderately successful, or unsuccessful, with probabilities 0.3, 0.6, and 0.1,
respectively. The yearly revenue associated with a very successful, moderately successful, or
unsuccessful product is $10 million, $5 million, and $1 million, respectively. Let the random
variable X denote the yearly revenue of the product. Determine the probability mass function of X.

The probability mass function of the yearly revenue of the product is given in the text of the
exercise:

f (10) = P( X = 10) = 0.3

f (5) = P (X = 5 ) = 0.6

f (1) = P ( X = 1) = 0.1

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7. The probability density function of the length of a metal rod is f(x) = 2 for 2.3 < x < 2.8 meters.
a. If the specifications for this process are from 2.25 to 2.75 meters, what proportion of the bars
fail to meet the specifications?
b. Assume that the probability density function is f(x) = 2 for an interval of length 0.5 meters. Over
what value the density should be centered to achieve the greatest proportion of bars within
specifications?

Step 1

The probability density function f of the random variable X is given as:

f(x)=2, 2.3 < x < 2.8

Straightforward calculation gives:
a)
P(2.25 X 2.75) = P(2.3 < X < 2.75) = 2 x (2.75 -2.3)=0.9
Therefore, 1 - 90% = 10% of the rods are not within expectation.

b)
If we suppose that X is centered around r = 2.5, the probability density formula is
transformed into:
f(x)=2, 2.25 < x < 2.75
and easy calculation gives:

P(2.25 X 2.75) = 2 x 0.5=1

Therefore, the answer is 2.5

8. Suppose the time it takes a data collection operator to fill out an electronic form for a database is
usually between 1.5 and 2.2 minutes.
a. What is the mean and variance of the time it takes the operator to fill out the form? b. What
is the probability that it will take less than two minutes to fill out the form? c. Determine the
cumulative distribution function of the time it takes to fill out the form.

Let X be a random variable with continuous uniform distribution over the interval
[1.5, 2.2. with the pdf:

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 9. Suppose that X is a binomial random variable with n = 200 and p = 0.4
a. Approximate the probability that X is less than or equal to 70
b. Approximate that the probability of X is greater than 70 and less than 90.

Let X be the binomial random variable with the parameters:

n=200

p=0.4

Then, the random variable Z defined as:​

is approximately standard normal random variable with the cumulative distribution Φ listed in the
tables on the back of the textbook.

Calculate using the continuity corrections and the tables:

a. P (X ≤ 70 ) - P(X ≤ 70.5 ) ≈ P 𝑍 ≤ ( 70.5 − 80

4 3 )
= Φ(−1.37)

= 0.0853

b. P(70lt;X lt;90)

=P(71≤X≤89)=P(70.5≤X≤89.5)≈P(−1.37≤Z≤1.37)=

=2Φ(1.37)−1≈0.83

10. In a large corporate computer network, user log-ons to the system can be modeled as a Poisson
process with a mean of 25 log-ons per hour. What is the probability that there are no logons in an
interval of 6 minutes?

Using the Poisson distribution, it is found that there is a:

a) 0.0821 = 8.21% probability that there are no logons in an interval of 6 minutes.
−11
b) 1.3887⁢× 10 probability that the distance between two log-ons be more than one hour.
We are given only the mean, hence, the Poisson distribution is used.
In a Poisson distribution, the probability that X represents the number of successes of a random
variable is given by:

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 −µ 𝑥
𝑒 µ
P (X = x) = 𝑥!
The parameters are:

x is the number of successes

e = 2.71828 is the Euler number

𝜇 is the mean in the given interval.

Item a:
6
Mean of 25 log-ons per hour, hence, in 6 minutes, the mean is of µ = 60
× 25 = 2. 5
The probability is P(X = 0), hence:
−µ 𝑥
𝑒 µ
P (X = x) = 𝑥!
−2..5 0
𝑒 2.5
P (X = x) = 0!
= 0.0821

0.0821 = 8.21% probability that there are no logons in an interval of 6 minutes.

Item b:
This is the probability of no log-ons in one hour, which is P(X = 0) with , then:
−µ 𝑥
𝑒 µ
P (X = x) = 𝑥!
−25 0
𝑒 25 −11
P (X = x) = 0!
= 1. 3887 × 10
−11
1. 3887 × 10 probability that the distance between two log-ons be more than one hour.

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