Entering an Era of Water Scarcity: The Challenges Ahead

Author(s): Sandra L. Postel

Source: Ecological Applications, Vol. 10, No. 4 (Aug., 2000), pp. 941-948
Published by: Ecological Society of America
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2641009
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 August2000 MANAGINGTHE LAND-WATER INTERFACE 941

Ecological Applicationzs, 10(4), 2000, pp. 941-948

? 2000 by the Ecological Society of America

ENTERING AN ERA OF WATER SCARCITY: THE CHALLENGES AHEAD

SANDRA L. POSTEL

Global WaterPolicy Project, 107 LarkspurDrive, Amherst,Massachusetts01002-3440 USA

Abstract. Fresh wateris a renewableresource,but it is also finite.Aroundthe world,

thereare now numeroussignsthathumanwateruse exceeds sustainablelevels. Groundwater
depletion,low or nonexistentriver flows,and worseningpollution levels are among the
more obvious indicatorsof waterstress.In many areas, extractingmore waterforhuman
uses jeopardizes the healthof vital aquatic ecosystems.Satisfyingthe increaseddemands
forfood, water,and materialgoods of a growingglobal populationwhile at the same time
protectingthe ecological services providedby naturalwaterecosystemsrequiresnew ap-
proaches to using and managingfreshwater.In this article,I propose a global effort(1)
to ensure that freshwaterecosystemsreceive the quantity,quality, and timingof flows
needed for themto performtheirecological functionsand (2) to work toward a goal of
doubling waterproductivity.Meeting these challenges will require policies thatpromote
ratherthandiscourage waterefficiency,as well as new partnerships thatcross disciplinary
and professionalboundaries.
freshwater; irrigatedagriculture;resourceconflicts;
Key words: biodiversity;dams; ecosystemns;
waterproductivity.

INTRODUCTION evenly in time or space, however,much of it is not

A growingscarcityof freshwaterrelativeto human accessible forhumanuse. Half of theestimated40 700
demands is now evident in many parts of the world. km3of annual runoff(which equates withnet precip-
Two of water's most fundamentalfunctions-its role itationon land) runsrapidlyoffthe land in floods.An
as a prerequisiteforlife, on the one hand, and its use additionalone-fifth of annual runoffis geographically
as a commodityor economic resource on the other- too remoteto be an economicallyviable source of sup-
are increasinglyin conflict.In many areas, extracting ply for farms,cities, or industriesfor the foreseeable
morefreshwaterforagriculture, industry,or citiesnow future.This leaves -31% of annualrunoffas accessible
places at riskthe healthof aquatic ecosystemsand the forcontrolledhumanuse, a figurethatincreases only
lifethoseecosystemssupport(Covich 1993, Postel and as newlyconstructeddams captureand storeadditional
Carpenter1997). Withthe world populationprojected floodwater.However, even optimisticprojections of
to increaseby an additionaltwobillion(2 x 109)people dam constructionover the next 30 years suggest an
by the year 2030 (United Nations 1998), findingways increase in accessible runoffof no more than 10%,
to satisfyhumanity'swaterdemandswhile at the same whilepopulationduringthisperiodis projectedto grow
timeprotectingthelife-support functionsof freshwater by some 30-35% (Postel et al. 1996).
systemsnow ranksamongthemostcriticaland difficult Postel et al. (1996) estimate that humans already
challenges of the 21st century.It is a challenge that appropriatehalfofthisaccessible runoff, eitherdirectly
spans science, technology,policy, and politics, and is in the formof withdrawalsforagriculture,cities, and
one that demands new partnershipsthat cross disci- industries,or indirectlyin theformofpollutiondilution
plinary and professionalboundaries. In this paper, I and otherinstreamuses. Even withoptimisticassump-
discuss thedimensionsof thewater-scarcity challenges tions about dam constructionto increase supplies cou-
thatlie ahead and propose some goals and directions pled withmodestassumptionsabout the growthin hu-
for addressingthem. man demands, we estimatethathuman appropriation
DIMENSIONS OF THE CHALLENGE
of accessible runoffcould climb to 70% by the year
2025. Such a degree of humandominanceof freshwa-
The global hydrologicalcycle annuallymakes avail- terwould severelydegradeaquatic ecosystemservices,
able several times more freshwaterthanis needed to decimate fishpopulations,and drive additionalbene-
sustainthecurrentworldpopulationof aboutsix billion ficial species to extinction.Assessments show that
(-6 x 109)people. Because thiswateris notdistributed thesetrendsare well underway (Covich 1993, Naiman
et al. 1995, Pringle2000).
Manuscriptreceived25 January1999; revised28 April1999;
of thisInvitedFeature,
accepted15 September1999. For reprints There is also widespreadphysicalevidence thathu-
see footnote1, p. 939. man activities have already reached or exceeded re-
941
 942 INVITED FEATURE EcologicalApplications
Vol. 10, No. 4

newable waterlimitsin manyregions.The clearestin- annual flow of 6 Nile Rivers or 28 Colorado Rivers
dicatorof unsustainableuse is chronicoverpumpingof (Shiklomanov 1996). An even largervolume of addi-
groundwater, a practice now widespreadin many im- tionalwaterwill need to be extractedfromnaturalwater
portantfood-producingregions and large urban areas systemsif thatwateris deliveredand applied to farms
(Postel 1996). Groundwaterwithdrawalsexceed re- inefficiently.In lightof the water-usetrendsjust pre-
charge levels in much of China's northplain, an im- sented,itwill be difficult
to supplythismuchadditional
portantgrain productionarea; the U.S. Great Plains irrigationwateron a sustainableand ecologicallysound
and California's Central Valley; parts of the Middle basis.
East and northAfrica;the valley of Mexico; and parts As urban water demands increase,cities are begin-
of southeastAsia (Postel 1999). Six of India's most ning to pull water away fromagriculture.By 2025,
important agriculturalstatesare overexploitingground- nearlyfivebillion (5 x 109)people are expectedto live
water to meet currentirrigationdemands. Their col- in cities, about twice as many as in 1995. If those
lective waterdeficittotals an estimated100 x 109m3/ projectionshold, the urban population will represent
yr (National EnvironmentalEngineeringResearch In- 61% of the global population,up from46% in 1996
stitute,unpublishedmanuscript),a volume of water (United Nations 1997). Rosegrantand Ringler(1998)
thatexceeds the average annual flowof theNile River. projectthatannual waterdemands by households and
Anothersign of excessive water use is that many industriesin developingcountrieswill increaseby 590
major riversnow run dryduringall or partof the dry x 109 m3 between 1995 and 2020, and thatthe share
season, when irrigationwater is most needed. These of watergoingto theseactivitieswill morethandouble,
includetheGanges in South Asia, theAmu Dar'ya and from13% of totalwateruse to 27%. Almostcertainly,
Syr Dar'ya in CentralAsia, the Nile in Africa,and the a portionof thesegreaterurbanand industrialdemands
Colorado in the American Southwest (Postel 1996). will be metby transfersof waterout of agriculture.As
China's Yellow River has run dryin its lower reaches Rosegrant and Ringler (1998) note, the manner in
every year this decade, with the dry section often which this farm-to-city reallocation of water is man-
stretching600 km,fromHenan Provinceto the river's aged "could determinethe world's abilityto feed it-
mouth.In 1997, the riverran dryfortwo-thirdsof the self."
year,a record226 d, up from133 d in 1996 and 122 To date, global food models have largely ignored
d in 1995. China's "motherriver" and the cradle of waterconstraints,leading to an overlyoptimisticpic-
Chinese civilization,the Yellow supplies waterto 140 ture of futurefood supplies. By 2025, the numberof
millionpeople and 7.4 x 106 ha of irrigatedcropland people in the developingworldliving in countriescat-
(Postel 1999). egorized as water-stressed-thosewith <1700 m3 of
With many aquifers and river systemsbeing over- renewable water per capita-is projected to increase
tapped to meet currentwater demands, stresses on more than six-fold,from -470 million to 3 billion.
freshwater systemswill worsenmarkedlyas population With few exceptions,water-stressedcountriesare net
and consumptionlevels increase. Three major dimen- food importersbecause theydo nothave sufficient wa-
sions of the water-scarcitych'allenge stand out: (1) ter supplies to satisfyall of theirwaterneeds (Postel
maintainingfood securityin the face of water con- 1998). The vast majorityof water-stressed populations
straintson agriculture,(2) preventinga downwardspi- in 2025 will be in sub-SaharanAfricaand South Asia.
ral in the health of the aquatic environment,and (3) Whethersufficientexportablefood surpluses will be
avertingpolitical instabilityin internationalriverba- available at a price thatpoor food-importing countries
sins. I discuss each of these brieflybelow. can affordis an important and under-attendedquestion.

Waterand food security Health offreshwaterecosystems

Food productionis a very water-intensive activity. Global waterdemandhas roughlytripledsince mid-
It takes on the orderof 1000 Mg (1000 metrictons) of century.To meet thatrising demand, engineershave
water in the formof soil moistureto grow 1 Mg (1 constructedlarge dams and riverdiversionsand drilled
metricton) of grain (Doorenbos and Kassam 1979). groundwaterwells at an unprecedentedpace and scale.
Irrigatedagricultureaccounts fortwo-thirdsof all the Since 1950, the numberof large dams-those at least
waterremovedfromrivers,lakes, and aquifersforhu- 15 m high-has increased from 5000 to 40 000
man activities (Shiklomanov 1996). Approximately (McCully 1996). Thousands of kilometersof canals
40% of the world's food comes fromthe 17% of the have been builtto divertand transport
riverwaterboth
world's croplandthatis irrigated,and thatdependence withinand betweenriverbasins. But while societybuilt
on irrigatedland is expected to increase in the future thesedams to meetthelegitimategoals ofwatersupply,
because of limitedopportunitiesto expandrainfedcrop flood control,and hydroelectricgeneration,wateren-
production.Growingthefoodneededto feedtheglobal gineeringhas failed in large measure to protectthe
populationin 2025 could requirean additional500 km3 fundamentalecological functionsof riversand fresh-
of irrigationwater,a volume roughlyequivalentto the water ecosystems.Many of these ecosystem services
 August2000 MANAGINGTHE LAND-WATER INTERFACE 943

go unvalued in the marketplace,but are estimatedto The still-unfoldingchain of ecological destruction

be worthin the trillionsof dollars on an annual basis rankstheAral Sea's demise as one oftheplanet'sgreat-
(Postel and Carpenter1997). est environmentaltragedies.All 24 nativefishspecies
Dams, dikes, levees, and otherhydraulicinfrastruc- have disappeared (Stone 1999), and the fish catch,
tureare primarydestroyersof aquatic habitatand dis- which totaled44 000 Mg/yr(44000 metrictons/yr)in
ruptorsof ecological functions,both downstreamand the 1950s and supportedsome 60 000 jobs, has dropped
upstream(Covich 1993, Collier et al. 1996, Pringle to zero (Postel 1996). Abandoned fishingvillages dot
1997). This infrastructure altersa river'sseasonal flow the sea's formercoastline.Each year,windspick up on
patterns,water temperature,dissolved oxygen levels, the orderof 108 Mg (108 metrictons) of a toxic dust-
nutrientand sedimenttransport,as well as its inter- salt mixturefromthe dry sea bed and dump themon
connectionswiththe land, includingits floodplainand the surroundingfarmland,harmingor killing crops.
delta. In what Covich (1993) has called a "cascade of The low riverflowshave concentratedsalts and toxic
biotic effects,"these changes in turnimpactplantand chemicals, makingwater supplies hazardous to drink
animal communities and their interrelationships.If and contributing to high rates of many diseases. The
dams and diversionssevera river'sconnectionwiththe population of Muynak, a formerfishingtown, has
sea, highlyproductivecoastal ecosystemscan suffer, droppedfrom40 000 severaldecades ago tojust 12 000
as has occurredwheretheGanges RiverenterstheBay today.The 28 000 people who have fledare "ecological
of Bengal, wherethe Colorado River entersthe Sea of refugees" in the truestsense (Micklin 1991b, Postel
Cortez, where the Yellow River enters the Bo Hai, 1996).
where the Chao Phraya entersthe Gulf of Thailand, Both the Amu Dar'ya and Syr Dar'ya deltas have
and wherethe Nile entersthe Mediterranean,to name been severelydegraded by the diminishedriverflow.
a few cases (Postel 1996). Micklin (1992) reportsthatthe tugay foreststhatare
Modern society is thus faced with a monumental vital habitatfortheregion's animal lifehave been dec-
design problem.There are hundredsof billions of dol- imated. Wetlandshave shrunkby 85%, which, com-
lars of hydraulicinfrastructure in place thatis literally bined withhigh levels of agriculturalchemical pollu-
killingthe aquatic world. Globally,the WorldConser- tion,has greatlyreducedwaterfowlpopulations.In the
vationUnion estimatesthatone out of everythreefish Syr Dar'ya delta, the numberof nestingbird species
species is to some degree at risk of extinction,com- has fallen froman estimated173 to 38.
pared withone out of everyfourmammals,one out of The Aral Sea tragedyprovidesthe most strikingex-
every five reptiles,and one out of every nine birds ample of theinterconnections betweenthehealthof an
(Baillie and Groombridge1996). Similarly,in theUnit- ecosystemand that of the economy,community,and
ed States, the Nature Conservancy findsthat water- people dependent on that ecosystem. But there are
based life is proportionately at greaterrisk thanland- manyotherexamples as well. As dams,diversions,and
based life. The organizationreportsthat67% of fresh- otherwater infrastructure continueto alter river sys-
watermussels are at risk,along with51% of crayfish, tems and diminishfreshwaterecosystemservices,the
40% of amphibians,and 37% of freshwater fish(Stein costs and risks of ignoringdownstreamand upstream
and Flack 1997). The primaryreason forthe imperil- impactsare rising.
mentof thesespecies is thedestructionand degradation
of theirhabitats. Regional instabilitiesand conflicts
Perhaps no place betterillustratesthe consequences The thirdmajordimensionofthewater-scarcity chal-
of undervaluingecosystemservices thanthe Aral Sea lenge is preventingcompetitionforwaterfromleading
basin in CentralAsia. Four decades ago, Soviet central to regional tensionsand conflicts.Approximately260
plannerscalculated thatusing centralAsian riversfor riversflowthroughtwo or morecountries(Wolf 1998).
the irrigationof cotton would generate greatereco- Many countriesdepend on riversflowingintotheirter-
nomicvalue thanlettingthemajorityoftheirflowemp- ritoryfromothernations for a substantialportionof
tyintotheAral Sea, whichwas thentheplanet'sfourth theirwater.In the vast majorityof these riverbasins,
largestlake (Micklin 1991a). Irrigatedarea in the re- thereis no treatyamong all thepartiessettingout how
gion expandedgreatlyduringtheensuingdecades, and the riverwateris to be shared.In the absence of such
now totals7.9 x 106ha. Priorto 1960, theAmu Dar'ya treaties,tensionsare almost certainto rise as popula-
and Syr Dar'ya released 55 x 109m3/yr. of waterinto tions grow and waterdemands increase. In fiveof the
the Aral. As riverdiversionsfor irrigationincreased, principalhot spots of waterdispute-the Aral Sea re-
however, this flow diminished. Between 1981 and gion, the Ganges, the Jordan,the Nile, and the Tigris-
1990, the rivers' combined flowinto the sea dropped Euphrates-the total population of the nations com-
to an average of 7 x 109 m3per year,13% of the pre- prisingeach basin is projectedto climb between32%
1960 inflow.The Aral has lost half of its surfacearea and 71% by the year 2025 (Population ReferenceBu-
and three-fourths of its volume (Micklin 1992), and reau 1999).
continuesto shrink. The U.S. intelligencecommunityis graduallytaking
 944 INVITED FEATURE Ecological Applications
Vol. 10, No. 4

notice of the threatsto regional stabilitythat water to be done. In 1997, the Murray-DarlingBasin Com-
scarcityposes. The U.S. Departmentof State has set missionrecommendedcappingallocationsto majorcit-
up regional"environmentalhubs" in partsoftheworld ies and towns at projected year-2000 levels of water
where it sees the potentialfor environmentaldegra- use, and suggestedthatcities meetany demandsabove
dation and resource scarcityto lead to political ten- this level by purchasingwater fromirrigators(Anon-
sions. Four of the six hubs have water as a principal ymous 1997a).
concern: Amman, Jordanin the Jordanbasin; Kath- In theUnitedStates,a numberofinitiativesare under
mandu, Nepal in the upper Ganges basin; Tashkent, way to returnwaternow allocated forhumanuses back
Uzbekistan in the Aral Sea basin; and Addis Ababa, to the naturalenvironment in orderto restoreand pro-
Ethiopia in the Nile basin (Marcus 1997). The chal- tect ecological functions.In late 1992, the U.S. Con-
lenge in each case is to turnwhatappears to be a zero- gresspassed legislationthatoverhaulsthe operationof
sum game, in which one party'sgain is another'sloss, the large federallyoperatedCentralValley Project in
into win-win situations,in which all partiesare made California in order to restorehabitat and ecological
betteroff. The search for creative solutions can be health to the Sacramento-San Joaquin river system.
greatlyaided by the work of hydrologists,ecologists, Amongotherobjectives,thelaw sets a goal ofrestoring
water engineers,and otherswho can help identifya thenaturalproductionof salmonand otheranadromous
fullrange of options,and help anticipatetheirecolog- fishto twice theiraverage levels over thepreceding25
ical consequences. years (Gray 1994). Effortsare also underway to limit
the volume of freshwater that can be divertedfrom
Two PROPOSED GOALS the San Francisco Bay delta-estuary,a highlyproduc-
Meetingthe waterchallengesof thecomingdecades tive aquatic ecosystemthatis home to >120 species
will requirea global effort(1) to ensurethatfreshwater of fish.In addition,a 1994 CaliforniaSupreme Court
ecosystemsreceive the quantity,quality,and timingof decision mandatedthatLos Angeles reduce its with-
flowsneeded forthemto performtheirecological func- drawals of waterfromtributariesfeedingMono Lake,
tions and (2) to double waterproductivity;thatis, to which had lost half its volume over several decades
get twice as much service,satisfaction,and benefitout because of the city's diversions.The court based its
of each unit of water extractedfromrivers,streams, ruling on a broader interpretation of the public trust
lakes, and aquifers.In the absence of concertedmove- doctrine,which is emergingas a potentiallypowerful
menttowardthese goals, the healthof the aquatic en- legal tool for restorationand protectionof important
vironmentwill deterioratemarkedlyand a largeportion naturalecosystems(Postel 1996).
of basic humanneeds forfood,safe drinkingwater,and Dam constructionand operation,both in the United
a healthyenvironment will go unmet. States and abroad, are now coming undercloser scru-
tiny.A growingnumberof dams have been slated for
Reservingwaterfor ecosystems removal in the United States because officialshave
Covich (1993), Gleick et al. (1995), Naiman et al. judged theirenvironmental damages to outweightheir
(1995) and othershave arguedforthe need to provide currentbenefitsto society.Among themare Edwards
naturalsystemswithenoughwaterof sufficient quality Dam on Maine's Kennebec River and the Elwha and
to sustaintheirhabitatand otherecological functions. Glines Canyon dams in Washingtonstate. The U.S.
To date, I am aware of onlyone country,South Africa, ArmyCorps of Engineersis now studyingthe idea of
thathas adoptedthisgoal as a matterof nationalpolicy. breachingfourdams on the Lower Snake River in the
Among the many constitutional,legal, and policy re- PacificNorthwestin orderto restoresalmon and steel-
forms undertakenby South Africa's post-apartheid head populations (DeSena 1997, Anonymous1997b).
democraticgovernmenthas been an overhaulof water Upon signingthelandmarkagreementclearingtheway
laws and policies. These include a strongenvironmen- fortheremovalof Edwards Dam, Secretaryof Interior
tal priorityforwatermanagement:"The quantity,qual- Bruce Babbitt said thereis now "a challenge to dam
ity, and reliabilityof water required to maintainthe owners and operatorsto defendthemselves-to dem-
ecological functionson which humansdepend should onstrateby hard facts,not by sentimentor myth,that
be reserved so thatthe human use of water does not the continuedoperationof a dam is in the public in-
individuallyor cumulativelycompromisethelong term terest,economicallyand environmentally."(U.S. De-
sustainabilityof aquatic and associated ecosystems" partmentof Interior1998). Internationally,an inde-
(SADWAF 1996). It remainsto be seen how effectively pendentWorld Commission on Dams has been estab-
this principleis implemented. lished to evaluate "the developmenteffectiveness"of
In Australia's largestriverbasin, the Murray-Dar- large dams and to assess "if and how they can con-
ling, the basin states have agreed to allocate 25% of tributeto sustainabledevelopment" (Dorcey 1997).
theriver'snaturalflowto maintainingthesystem'seco- Proposals have also been issued to operatedams in
logical health. As in South Africa,however,the hard a mannerthatrestoresor protectssome of the ecolog-
work of actuallyaccomplishingthis objective remains ical functionsof a river'snaturalflowpattern.Typically
August2000 MANAGINGTHE LAND-WATER INTERFACE 945

this involves managingdams so as to partiallymimic intensive diets common in developing countriesand

pre-dampatternsof runoffin orderto maintaincritical some Asian and European countries(UNFAO 1996).
habitatand benefitnative species. For example, after By eating lower on the food chain or selecting less
the U.S. Fish and WildlifeService invokedthefederal water-intensiveforms of animal protein,consumers
EndangeredSpecies Act to protectcriticalhabitatfor could get twice as muchnutritional benefitout of each
endangeredchubs,suckers,and squawfish,officialsbe- literof waterconsumedin food production.Stateddif-
gan dictatingthatoperationof Flaming Gorge Dam on ferently, thesame volume of watercould feedtwopeo-
theGreenRiverin Utahbe drivennotjust by irrigation, ple instead of one, leaving more water in rivers and
floodcontrol,and hydroelectricpower needs, but in a streamsto help restorefisheries,wetlands,and natural
way thatwould re-createnaturalhabitat(Collier et al. ecosystemservices (Postel 1999).
1996). Poffet al. (1997) have describedtheimportance Substantialpotentialexists in industriesand munic-
of fivecriticalcomponentsofnaturalriverflowregimes ipalities to move towardgreaterwaterproductivityas
in determining ecological functions,and notethat"just well. Installing water-efficient plumbing fixturesin
as rivershave been incrementallymodified,theycan homes and commercialbuildings,establishingnative
be incrementally restored,withresultingimprovements landscapes ratherthan water-consumptive lawns, re-
to manyphysical and biological processes." cycling process and cooling waters in manufacturing
plants,and reusingmunicipalwastewaterforirrigation
Doubling waterproductivity arejust a fewofthepotentialmeasuresforraisingwater
Opportunitiesto protectand restorenaturalfresh- productivity(Vickers, in press). In most cases, how-
watersystemswill be limitedwithouta concertedeffort ever,waterpricingand otherpolicies and institutions
to reduce human demands for water.Given projected fail to encourageefficientwaterpractices,delayingthe
demographictrendsand the already serious state of transitionto a more water-efficient economy.
decline of manyfreshwater ecosystems,I maintainthat
A multiple-benefitsapproach to water management
society will need to approximatelydouble waterpro-
ductivityover the next three decades. In this usage, Meeting the waterchallenges of the 21st centuryis
waterproductivity is a broaderconceptthanwateruse going to require new ways of thinkingabout, using,
efficiency.It refersto the output,service,satisfaction, and managingwater.Reconcilingthe growingtension
or benefitderived fromeach unit of water removed between instreamwater needs and extractivewater
fromnaturalwatersources. needs will requirenew and creativeapproaches.Long
Because irrigationaccountsfortwo-thirdsof global thepurviewof engineers,waterplanningand manage-
waterextractionsworldwide,raisingwaterproductivity mentincreasinglyrequiresthe inputof manydifferent
in agricultureis the linchpinof any strategyto double professionsand many differentstakeholders.It is no
waterproductivity globally.Technologiesand methods longer sufficientfor water plannersto project future
now exist to go a long way towardachievingthisgoal. demandsand thenconstructnew projectsto meetthose
Drip irrigation,forexample,has thepotentialto at least demands. The risingcosts-economic, ecological, so-
double crop yield per unitwaterin manyapplications, cial, and political of many large water projects re-
including irrigationof most vegetables, cotton,sug- quires a new approach,one thatbuilds on theidea that
arcane, and orchardand vineyardcrops. A collection watercan be managed to provide multiplebenefitssi-
of researchresultsfromvarious Indian researchinsti- multaneouslyor sequentially,which,in turn,offersop-
tutes indicates typical water use reductionswith drip portunitiesfor defusingtensions between competing
irrigationof 30-60% and typicalyieldincreasesof 20- water uses and users. Ratherthan irrigators,environ-
50% fora varietyof crops,includingcotton,sugarcane, mentalists,fishinginterests,and otherwateruserseach
grapes,tomatoes,and bananas (Indian National Com- battlingfor a bigger slice of the waterpie, theymay
mittee 1994, Sivanappan 1994). Together,the greater be able to achieve theirseparategoals jointly and co-
waterapplicationefficiencyand higheryields produce operativelyby gettingmultiplebenefitsout of thesame
a doublingor triplingof waterproductivity. Although water.
few technologieshave the combinedwater-savingand In the Colorado River delta in northernMexico, for
yield-enhancing potentialof dripirrigation,
manyother example, thereis a 20000-ha wetland thatresembles
technologiesand methodscan produce substantialim- what the delta musthave looked like priorto the con-
provementsin efficiencyand thus water productivity structionof large dams and diversionsin the Colorado
(Postel 1999). Riverbasin. The treatiesthatdividetheColorado's flow
A shifttowardmorewater-efficient dietscan play an among seven U.S. statesand Mexico allocate morewa-
importantpart as well. Calories derived fromanimal terto the eightpartiesthantheriveractuallycarriesin
productsrequire 4-16 times more water to produce an average year. Virtuallyno flowremainsto sustain
than those derived from vegetable products (Cohen the delta ecosystemthatAmericannaturalistAldo Le-
1995). Overall,thetypicalAmericandietrequirestwice opold once called "a milk and honeywilderness" and
as much waterto produce as nutritiousbut less meat- a land of "a hundredgreenlagoons" (Leopold 1949).
 946 INVITED FEATURE Ecological Applications
Vol. 10, No. 4

Today, most of the delta is a desiccated landscape of together,the primarygoals of the dam could be met
salt flats,mud flats,dry sand, and scatteredmurky withoutdestroyingtheflood-dependent productionsys-
pools. The Cienaga de Santa Clara, however,standsout tems downstream.They also showed thatwhen all of
as a vital wetlandremnant.It is a major stopoverpoint the flood-basedsystem'sbenefitswere taken into ac-
formigratorybirds along the Pacific flyway,and may count,includingcrop production,fisheries,and use of
be home to the largest remainingpopulations of en- the floodplainby livestock,this systemwas actually
dangeredYuma Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostrisyu- more productivethan the irrigationoption (Horowitz
manensis) and desertpupfish(Cyprinodonmacularis) and Salem-Murdock 1993). Researchers are now ex-
(Glenn et al. 1992, 1996). ploringthe potentialof this approach forriverbasins
The Cienaga de Santa Clara wetlands are the un- in northeasternNigeria, the Tana basin in Kenya, and
planned consequence of an agriculturaldrainagecanal the Mekong in SoutheastAsia (Horowitz 1994).
that extends froman irrigationdistrictin Arizona to
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
the southernportionof the Colorado delta. It was built
as a temporarysolutionto the waterqualityproblems Satisfyinghumanity'swater demands while simul-
resultingfromthedischargeofthedistrict'ssaltydrain- taneouslyprotectingthe ecological supportfunctions
age intotheriverjust beforetherivercrossedtheborder of freshwatersystemswill be one of the mostdifficult
into Mexico. Althoughpoor in quality,the irrigation and importantchallenges of the 21st century.Water
drainage has created and sustains one of the largest scarcityhas spread rapidlyto manypartsof the world
desert wetlands in the American southwestand has as population and consumptionlevels have increased
helped save at least two species fromextinction(Postel against a fixedsupplyof renewablefreshwater.Meet-
et al. 1998). By supportingthe Cienaga, the irrigation ing the challenges water scarcityposes to food pro-
district'swateris generatingdual benefits:itis growing duction,ecosystemhealth,and political and social sta-
crops and it is creatingwildlife habitat. California's bilitywill requirenew approaches to using and man-
tragicexperiencewith selenium-laceddrainageenter- aging water.Greatereffortswill be needed to reserve
ing the Kestersonwetlandsis a reminderthatthiskind waterforthe maintenanceof ecological functionsand,
of arrangement needs to be carefullyplannedand mon- wherenecessary,to returnwaterto naturalsystemsto
itored(Harris 1991, Dunning1993). Executedproperly, restorethose functions.Concertedeffortswill also be
however,the reuse of irrigationwaterto expand wet- needed to slow thegrowthin humandemandsforwater.
land habitatis a way of increasingwaterproductivity; I have urgedthe adoptionof a goal of doublingwater
gettingmore value out of each unitof waterremoved productivity: gettingtwice as muchbenefitout of each
fromnaturalwatersystems. unit of waterextractedfromnaturalwatersystems.
Flood-recessionfarming,a commonpracticein the Creativenew ways of obtainingbothcommodityand
Senegal, Niger,and Lake Chad basins of SubSaharan ecosystembenefitsfromthesame volume of waterwill
Africa,provides anotherexample of the multipleben- also be needed. Developing and implementingthese
efitsmade possible froma whole-systemsapproachto optionswill requirenew partnerships and alliances that
raisingwaterproductivity. As thephraseimplies,flood- draw upon the expertiseof professionalsfrommany
recession croppinginvolves plantingcrops aftera riv- disciplines including biology, ecology, engineering,
er's seasonal floodrecedes. The moisturestoredin the hydrology,economics,anthropology, and demography.
floodplain soils then supportsthe crops throughthe It will also require a willingness of professionalsto
growingseason. Judgedby grain yields alone, flood- cross not only disciplinaryboundariesbutprofessional
based agricultureappears considerablyless productive boundaries; for academics to join with practitioners,
thanmodernintensiveirrigatedagriculture.But when for example, and for both of these groups to interact
otherproductiveelementsof flood-recessionsystems withpolicy makers.
are included,thisproductivity equation shifts(Scudder Watermanagementpracticesthatprotectnaturalcap-
1991, Horowitz and Salem-Murdock1993). ital ratherthandepletingit will be criticalto the sur-
A case in pointis the ManantaliDam on Mali's Ba- vival and sustainabilityof agriculturaland economic
fingRiver,a tributary oftheSenegal River.Constructed activities.In the spiritof the new social contractfor
duringthe 1970s, the dam is supposed to be operated science called for by Lubchenco (1998), institutional
to expand irrigation,generatehydropower, and extend rewardmechanismsto encourage synergisticcollabo-
barge transportation. By eliminatingthe river's sea- rationsamongscientists,practitioners, waterusers,and
sonal floods,however,theplannedoperationofthedam policy makerscould greatlyhelp advance the cause of
would destroya highlyproductiveflood-basedsystem ecologically sound and sustainablewateruse and man-
thatvalley dwellersdepend on fortheirlivelihoods. In agement.
a creativeexample ofecologicallybased systemsthink- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ing, an internationaland interdisciplinaryresearch I thankthe Pew Fellows Programin Conservationand the
team demonstratedthatby using the dam to release an Environmentfor the financialsupportto undertakethis re-
"artificial" floodratherthaneliminatingthe flood al- search. Portions of this article are adapted from my book
 August2000 MANAGINGTHE LAND-WATER INTERFACE
947

PillatrofSand (Postel 1999), theresearchand writingofwhich Marcus, A. D. 1997. Greenpolitik:threatsto environment

were supportedby the Pew Fellows Programand the World- provoke a new securityagenda. Wall StreetJournal,No-
watch Institute.I also thanktheEcological Society of Amer- vember20, 1997. Page A19.
ica and the American Society of Limnology and Oceanog- McCully, P. 1996. Silenced rivers:the ecology and politics
raphyforthe invitationto deliver a plenaryaddress at their of large dams. Zed Books, London, UK.
joint meeting in St. Louis in June 1998, which led to the Micklin, P. 1991a. The water managementcrisis in Soviet
invitationto prepare this article. Finally, thanksto Stephen Central Asia. The Carl Beck papers in Russian and East
Carpenter,RobertNaiman, and CatherinePringleforreview- European studies. Universityof Pittsburgh,Pittsburgh,
ing the manuscript. Pennsylvania,USA.
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