PREDICTION OF LAND USE CHANGES FOR SUSTAINABLE LAKE

TALANG ECOSYSTEM IN SOLOK DISTRICT

*Putri Rivani1, Yudi Antomi2, Iswandi2, Elfia Edial2

1
Student of D3 Remote Sensing Technology Study Program, Padang State University
2
Lecturer in the Remote Sensing Study Program, Padang State University
email:putririvani0803@gmail.com

ABSTRACT: Land is an important factor for human life. Land is widely used by humans to fulfill their
daily needs, apart from that, land is also used as a place for humans to live. It is thought that the density of
settlements and the variety of community activities in Lake Talang will cause problems with pollution of the
aquatic ecosystem, so that either directly or indirectly it will disrupt the balance of the aquatic ecosystem,
such as affecting population density and distribution patterns of Sumatran aquatic biota. The changes in land
use that occur greatly affect the ecosystem and have an impact on sustainable changes. This research aims to
identify changes in land use, analyze the level of pollution in waters and analyze the development of
predicted changes in land use until 2070 in the Talang Lake area. The methods used are remote sensing
image interpretation methods, survey methods, analysis methods. The field survey method was carried out to
find out the results of the interpretation which included the type of land use, identification of hydrological
conditions, morphology in the form of slopes and environmental conditions. The results of land use
classification in the Lake Talang area show that the area change that occurred in 2017 and 2022 was
271.58ha. Meanwhile, the prediction for 2070 will be an increase of 241.14 ha.

Keywords: Total Suspended Solid(TSS)

1. INTRODUCTION
Land is an important factor for human life. Land is widely used by humans to meet their living needs, apart
from that, land is also used as a place for humans to live. Food Agricultural Organization in Setya Nugraha
(2007) states that land is part of the landscape which includes the definition of the physical environment
including climate, topography/relief, hydrology and even the state of natural vegetation, all of which have the
potential to influence land use. It is further explained that land has specific properties or characteristics.

The changes in land use that occur greatly affect the ecosystem and have an impact on sustainable changes.
Studying changes in land use in an area is very important to carry out so as not to cause bad consequences
that can cause chaos, such as the disposal of waste due to land use for tourism which can affect the ecosystem
in Talang Lake. Sustainable, Talang Lake has the potential for rapid changes in the use of built land because
it has a high attraction for the tourists. The concentration of tourist activities in Talang Lake creates many job
opportunities for immigrants so that the resources around Talang Lake increase and the use of natural
resources will also continue to decrease.

It is thought that the density of settlements and the variety of community activities in Lake Talang will cause
problems with pollution of the aquatic ecosystem, so that either directly or indirectly it will disrupt the
balance of the aquatic ecosystem, such as affecting population density and distribution patterns of Sumatran
aquatic biota. With all the activities taking place, the TSS of river water becomes high. Apart from that, river
discharge in the morning often increases where the water comes from upstream of the river, resulting in the
concentration of suspended solids also increasing.

Restoring damaged ecosystems has great potential to strengthen the existing conservation area system.
Ecological restoration is a repair practice, which can be defined as a process that deliberately changes (the
environmental conditions) of a location to re-form a particular ecosystem that is original and has historical
value. The aim of this (restoration) process is to restore the structure, function, diversity and dynamics of the
related ecosystem (Indrawan et al. 2007).

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Total Suspended Solid(TSS) is a reflection of the dynamics of changes in aquatic and terrestrial ecology. TSS
is also an early indicator of the possibility of sedimentation in water areas. A high TSS value will indicate a
high level of pollution. This can affect the physical condition of waters and result in disruption of the
photosynthesis process of aquatic biota in a body of water (Budhiman in Fathiyah, et al, 2017).

Apart from having many rivers, Solok Regency also has many lakes which are famous for their natural
beauty. Among these lakes, the largest is Lake Singkarak, followed by Lake Twin (Lake Above and Lake
Below), Lake Talang and Lake Tuodi Ujung Ladang Sumani. Besides that, Solok Regency also has a Talang
Lake as a place for healing such as camping, staycations, and also other photo spots. By carrying out this
activity, tourists take advantage of the facilities around the lake. The lake water is used to wash cooking
utensils, eating utensils and is also used for bathing and there are also those who throw rubbish carelessly
into the lake. This activity has the potential to damage the lake ecosystem, the previously healthy lake water
becomes unhealthy, the impact of tourists bathing, this has a big impact on the sustainable ecosystem around
the Talang Lake area, therefore it is very necessary to predict changes in land use for the sustainable Talang
Lake Ecosystem in Solok Regency.

The role of remote sensing in this research occupies a very important position, especially in its management,
remote sensing technology is an alternative that can support the provision of information on natural resources
that spatially occupy large areas at a cost and time that is economical and relatively short compared to overall
field surveys. One way to obtain remote sensing data is through satellites to obtain Landsat 8-Oli imagery. It
is very important to know the distribution of TSS in order to reduce sources and pollution.

This research aims to identify changes in land use, analyze the level of pollution in waters and analyze the
development of predicted changes in land use until 2070 in the Talang Lake area.

2. RESEARCH METHODS

2.1 Research site

This research is located in the Talang Lake area, Solok Regency, West Sumatra Province with an area
of 5Km2 and is located at coordinates 01.57'18 - 01.13'23 South Latitude and 100.44'48 - 100.55'45
East Longitude.

2.2 Tools and materials

The type used in this research is quantitative research. The data used is secondary data, namely the 2017
and 2022 Sentinel-2A images downloaded at Esa Copernicus and the Solok Regency administrative
boundary map downloaded at Inageoportal.

2.3 Data Processing Stage

2.3.1 Initial processing
At this stage, radiometric correction is carried out to improve the visual quality of the image
and at the same time correct pixel values that do not match the reflection or spectral emission
values of the actual object. As well as carrying out atmospheric corrections to reduce the
influence of atmospheric disturbances on satellite image data, so that the reflectance values
obtained are close to the actual reflectance values of objects on the earth's surface.
Next, cropping was carried out on the image using a polygon shapefile from the Padang City
regional government.
2.3.2 Processing
2.3.2.1 Land Use Classification
The data and information in this research are divided into two large groups, namely
serial land use data to determine the serial pollution of the lake above to determine the
level of pollution of the lake above from time to time. The land use data series was
obtained by interpreting Sentinel 2A imagery. Interpretation of Sentinel 2A images is
carried out through a supervised classification approach using e-cognition rule set mode
with multi-resolution fragmentation and spectral differences. The types of land use are
determined into four groups, namely forest, agriculture (moorlands, mixed plantations

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 and rice fields), built-up areas (settlements and open land), and waters (rivers and
lakes).
The maximum likelihood pixel-based classification algorithm has stages that are carried
out, in short, as follows: inputting image file data, creating land cover classes, training
samples in each land cover class, and running the maximum likelihood algorithm which
will automatically classify land cover based on the sample. created land use classes.
2.3.2.2 Land Use Prediction
Land use predictions are carried out using the MOLUSCE Tools in QGIS software.
2.16. The process is as follows:
2.3.2.2.1 The 2017 land use map is used as the initial year data and the 2022 land use
map as the later year data.
2.3.2.2.2 Analysis of land use changes produces a map of land use changes 2017-2022.
2.3.2.2.3 Supporting data using SHP roads and rivers, used to trigger changes.
2.3.2.2.4 MOLUSCE modeling input data uses raster data.
2.3.2.2.5 Cellular Automata is carried out on land use for 2017 and 2022. The data must
have the same spatial resolution and coordinates.
2.3.2.2.6 If the validation results in 2022 are met then the prediction will continue for
the next year. In this research, it was carried out in 2070 for the prediction
year.

2.3.3 Accuracy Test

Accuracy tests are carried out to obtain information about the accuracy of classification results.
Accuracy testing is an effort to show the level of accuracy of the results of interpretation and
mapping efforts. This is done to determine the level of confidence placed in the remote sensing
interpretation data or mapping carried out. (Sutanto, 1994: 116-118).
Turbidity itself is the tendency of the sample size to scatter light. While scattering is produced
by the presence of suspended particles in the sample. The distribution pattern and intensity will
differ due to changes in the size and shape of the particles and material.

2.3.4 Flow chart

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3. RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Changes in Land Use in Lembah Gumanti District, Talang Lake Area from Image Transformation
in 2017, 2022.
Land use in Solok Regency in this study was divided into 5 classes consisting of Water Bodies, Forests,
Mixed Fields, Built-up Land, Open Land, Shrubs. The Land Use Map in this research was obtained using the
maximum likelihood interpretation and classification method. The following is a map of the results of land
use classification 2017, 2022 in Solok Regency.

Figure 1. 2017 Land Use Classification Results for the Talang Lake Area.

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 Figure 2. Land Use Classification Results for the Talang Lake Area in 2022.

Table 1. Land Cover Area and Comparison in 2017 and 2022

Land cover Area (Ha)
2017 2022 Comparison
98.09 95.5 2.51
Water body
8
241.36 218. 22.57
Forest
79
84.86 238. 154
Mixed Farm
89
Built Up Land 2.98 8.83 6
70.19 44.9 25.2
Open field
9
381.10 271. 109.52
Shrubs
58

3.2 Prediction of Land Use in the Talang Lake Area, Solok Regency in 2070
Prediction results using Cellular Automata for land use in the Talang Lake Area in 2070 show that the land
area in the Talang Lake Area until 2070 experienced a drastic increase and decrease. The land that
experienced an increase was forest to 237.57 ha, mixed fields to 241.14 ha, open land to 299.62 ha, while the
area of land that experienced a decrease was water bodies to 94.98 ha, built-up land to 1.66 ha, and shrubs to
3.68 ha.

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 Figure 3. Prediction of land use in the Talang Lake area, Solok Regency in 2070
The following is a table of predicted land use areas in 2070:

Table 2. Prediction of Land Use in 2070

Land cover Area (Ha)
2070
Water body 94.98
Forest 237.57
Mixed Farm 241.14
Built Up Land 1.66
Open field 299.62
Shrubs 3.68

3.3 TSS (Total Suspended Solid) Map Results for Lake Talang, Solok Regency in 2022.
ResultsResearchers provide 5 TSS classification classes in 2023 with a dark green color, where this color is a
very low classification class, which shows that this area has a concentration value of 7.1-18.3 Mg/L, where
the very low class dominates around the edges of the lake, while the green color shows low TSS value with a
concentration value range of 18.3-34 Mg/L. In the medium classification the TSS concentration value is
between 34-52 Mg/L, while for the high class it has a concentration value between 52-79 Mg/L, and the
results The TSS is very high, there is a concentration value of 79-265 Mg/L which dominates in the lower
right area of the lake. The results of the analysis of sentinel 2a image for the TSS value are dominated by the
high classification class. .

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 Figure 4. 2022 TSS Map Results

3.4 Accuracy Test

This accuracy test is used to compare the value of the results, facts in the field with the results of image
analysis, whether the processed image can be useful for further research or not. The results of the accuracy
test that have been carried out are as follows:

Table 3. Accuracy Test

Coordinate Sample Point Distance (Ha)
S E Field Data Image 2022
1° 0'36.83"S 100°42'13.65" 3.35 25.30 21
E
1° 0'36.90"S 100°42'13.76" 2.15 20.76 18
E
1° 0'37.10"S 100°42'14.08" 2.56 13.04 10
E
1° 0'37.10"S 100°42'14.08" 3.55 35.14 31
E
1° 0'37.10"S 100°42'14.08" 13.9 1.62 12.28
E

4 CONCLUSION

Based on the results of land use classification in the Talang Lake area using the Total Suspended Solid
(TSS) method, it shows that the area change that has occurred in 2017 and 2022 is 271.58ha. Meanwhile, the
prediction for 2070 will be an increase of 241.14 ha.

5 REFERENCE

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[3] Umar, Indriyani (2019). Analysis of Changes in Land Use Around Lake Limboto in Gorontalo Regency.
Yogyakarta: Department of Architectural and Planning Engineering, Faculty of Engineering. Gajah
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[4] Prasetyo. Buddha. Agus (2011). Study of Vulnerability and Areas Prone to Flooding from Bogowonto
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