Teka of Political Science and International Relations – UMCS, 2021, 16/2, 23–35

DOI: 10.17951/teka.2021.16.2.23-35

Climate change impacts

on water resources

Ayla Novruzova
University of Maria Curie-Skłodowska
Doctoral School of Social Sciences
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8021-9250
e-mail: aylanv94@gmail.com

Abstract: In the last few years, there has been significant interest in climate change. It has been
found the direct impact on surrounding world as well as on water resources. The rise in tempera-
ture associated with climate change results in a general decrease in the proportion of precipitation
falling as snow and, as a result, a decrease in the duration of snow cover in many areas. With a shift
from spring snow melt to winter runoff, this has implications for the timing of streamflow in such
areas. The number of people living in water-stressed countries would rise. These changes threaten
the quality of drinking water, rising water levels, and drying up, which also has implications for
quality of life and food production. All of the above have a devastating effect on our ecosystem. It
should be noted that the impact of climate change on water resources is also the impact on the com-
munity (e.g. health security, future existence). Scientists from all across the world have already
agreed that the global climate change is the result of human activity.
Keywords: climate change, water resources, climate policy

INTRODUCTION

A research problem is connected with the rise in temperature associated with

climate change, leading to a general decrease in the proportion of precipitation
falling as snow and, as a result, a decrease in the duration of snow cover in many
areas. The number of people living in water-stressed countries would rise. These
changes threaten the quality of drinking water, rising water levels, and drying up,
which also has implications for the quality of life and food production.
A cognitive goal of the research is to determine the climate change impacts
on water resources. Research aims are the following:
– to determine climate change as an independent variable of water resources,
– to look at the water resources as a dependent variable of climate change,
24 Ayla Novruzova

– to determine measures facing the effects of climate change on water re-

sources.
Research assumption is that the climate change impacts on water resources.
It indicates the structure of the analysis carried out in the article: climate change
as an independent variable of water resources is determined; water resources as
a dependent variable of climate change are overlooked; measures facing the effects
of climate change on water resources are defined.
This study is based, to some extent, on the legal and regulatory frameworks
for protecting the world’s water resources from climate change, as well as on
regional and federal programs to protect water resources from climate change
currently in place in various developed and developing countries that are pursuing
sustainable development goals. However, it is a completely original work, clearly
focused on the protection of the world’s water resources from climate change.
An important feature of the study is the special attention to water problems and
sustainable development in general. It is water problems, changes in the volume
and regime of river flow as a result of global anthropogenic climate change that
are likely to be the most serious problem in the world. The author of the study has
successfully coped with the set task, analyzed all available information in detail,
and presented it fully and clearly in the form of research results.

CLIMATE CHANGE AS AN INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

OF WATER RESOURCES

Changes in the global climate, which have been occurring at a high (for cli-
matology) rate over the last century and a half, have already led to significant con-
sequences in nature. Among them there are such noticeable ones as, for example,
the northward shift of the tundra and forest tundra boundaries, and, accordingly,
of the forest tundra and taiga boundaries, which can be clearly detected when
comparing satellite images for different periods of time. The reactions of the
economy to such phenomena that have already occurred are not yet as significant
as the radical structural shifts that have already begun in it in the anticipation of
the upcoming climate changes in order to mitigate them – primarily the reduction
of the share of hydrocarbon fuels in the energy sector and the rapid development
of energy production based on its renewable sources [Aboufadel, Schlicker 1999].
Of course, the structural shifts in the global economy are not caused by the
challenges of climate change alone, although they are decisive for the energy
sector. But the importance of climate for civilization in general and the global
economy is so great that an analysis of any aspect of global economic develop-
ment reveals the important role of the climate factor. Such an analysis invariably
reveals contradictions of driving forces and conflicts of interest, objective limi-
tations (often not immediately noticed) that create the most difficult problems of
development. It usually turns out that climate change is an additional factor that
 Climate change impacts on water resources 25

makes it even more difficult to solve problems that are already almost impossible
to solve. This is precisely the case with the global water crisis.
Global climate change is caused by the combined effect of various causes,
the main of which is an anthropogenic increases in concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, and has several manifestations, the main one being
global warming characterized by increases in global average surface tempera-
tures. This growth inevitably leads to increased evaporation in the world oceans,
which covers almost 71% of the Earth’s surface, and in other surface water bodies
located in areas where the climate will be warmer (these are the vast majority).
The same applies to land areas [Adam, Lettenmaier 2008]. The dominant role
in this process belongs to the ocean. If at present the atmosphere contains about
13,000 km3 of water (in all three phases – gaseous, liquid and solid, in terms of
the liquid phase), by 2030, with an increase of the average global surface temper-
ature by 1.5–2°C, the increase in this volume, as expected, may be about 10–14%
[Addison 2002].
However, it is not only about water vapor entering the atmosphere due to
increased evaporation, but also about the fact that, when heated, the atmosphere
can hold more of this gas. Therefore, it is naive to believe that precipitation will
increase by exactly the same amount that evaporation will increase. The global
characteristic – the amount of water in the atmosphere – is only the background
against which precipitation volume is formed. Its value also depends on another
global characteristic, the time of water replacement in the atmosphere, i.e. the
length of time during which as much water as it contains enters the atmosphere.
More precisely, these three values – global amount of precipitation (per year),
time of substitution of atmospheric water and its volume – are interrelated, but the
nature of the connection depends on a huge number of factors, including regional
and local ones determining the movement of air masses.
This situation can be considered as a vivid example of strong interdepend-
ence of macro-characteristics of the global system and its micro-characteristics,
a property that makes it extremely difficult to study, and especiallyto predict, the
behavior of supercomplex systems [Allen, Ingram 2002].

RESULTS

Water resources as a dependent variable of climate change

Water is the medium through which society experiences many of the effects
of the climate crisis, for example, through various risks to the energy, agriculture,
health, and transport sectors. These stem from interactions with non-climatic
drivers of change, such as population growth, migration, economic development,
urbanization, environmental change, land use change, or natural geomorphologi-
cal changes that undermine resource sustainability through reduced water supply
26 Ayla Novruzova

or increased water demand. The possible model for evaluation of climate change
on water resourcesis represented in Figure 1.

Figure 1. The model for evaluation of climate change on water resources

Source: [Salami et al. 2015].

These interactions often result in uneven and unanticipated events, such as

the recent onset of drought in the Netherlands, a low-lying coastal country much
more adapted to living with floods. In other cases, identifying water-related cli-
mate hotspots can be quite straightforward [Daniel, Yamamoto 1994].
Such is the case with glacial meltwater, which is a crucial source of water
supply, but also a growing threat at certain times of the year to millions of people,
such as those living in the high Andes in Bolivia, Peru and Chile. An estimated
3.6 billion people worldwide now live in areas with potential water shortages for
at least one month a year. According to the United Nations World Water Devel-
opment Report, that number will rise to 4.8–5.7 billion people by 2050, creating
unprecedented competition among water users, including along political borders
[Dolph, Marks 1992].
Sudden and slow-onset disasters associated with the hydrological cycle have
long been a major driving force behind the forced migration of people fleeing
danger. Lack of access to or supply of water – whether due to drought or a com-
bination of drought and poor water management – is also seen as a factor influ-
encing the decision to migrate, as it affects well-being and livelihoods. The Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assesses
the hydrological impacts of climate change.
 Climate change impacts on water resources 27

The 2018 Special Report on the effects of global warming of 1.5°C above
pre-industrial levels outlines ways to mitigate them that are consistent with 1.5°C
in the context of sustainable development. Both reports provide comprehensive
information to date on the observed and projected hydrological impacts of cli-
mate change, including: limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C above
pre-industrial levels could have enormous implications for water resources, since
it is possible that it would reduce the proportion of the world’s population facing
increased water stress caused by climate change by 50% [Newland 2005].
The impacts of land use and climate change on water resources are repre-
sented in Figure 2.

Figure 2. The impacts of land use and climate change on water resources
Source: [Salami et al. 2015].

The climate change risks associated with freshwater increase significant-

ly with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Despite the availability
of current observations, and projections, many countries lack relevant data and
understanding of how climate change may affect the hydrologic cycle and wa-
ter-dependent services at appropriate temporal and spatial scales relevant to the
decision-making process. Major gaps in observations and data include the im-
pacts of climate change on water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and groundwater.
Meanwhile, climate models continue to be refined and improved. The impact of
water scarcity at GDP is represented in Figure 3.
28 Ayla Novruzova

Figure 3. The impact of water scarcity on GDP

Source: [Distefano 2017].

Regional downscaling methods are now being used to obtain climate information
at the smaller spatial scales needed for many climate impact studies, with added value
in regions with highly variable topography and for various mid-scale phenomena.
However, the quality of probabilistic precipitation predictions remains poor, especially
at scales relevant to the decision-making process [Adam, Lettenmaier 2008].
The close interaction between multiple factors, combined with the inherent
complexity of hydrological processes and systems, makes it difficult to accurately
assess the entire cascade of changes and their causal relationships. In turn, when
hydrological changes are detected, identifying their causes, one of which is cli-
mate change, is often uncertain. Nevertheless, the presence of such uncertainty
does not mean that managers cannot make informed decisions. On the contrary,
management options are analyzed and evaluated using risk-informed methods
and approaches for a range of possible developments.

Measures facing the effects of climate change on water resources

The relationship between climate change mitigation and water is reciprocal.

Measures taken to reduce emissions have a direct impact on the use and man-
agement of water resources. In turn, water extraction and management measures
affect carbon emissions because of the energy intensity of water treatment and
distribution systems. For example, emission reduction activities often depend on
a steady supply of adequate water quality, but in assessing this factor, more than
half of the companies surveyed reported that better water management leads to
lower emissions [Allen, Ingram 2002].
 Climate change impacts on water resources 29

The role that governments and other actors, including the private sector, have
to play in managing water sustainably to ensure a sustainable low-carbon future
is globally recognized. However, the process of awareness is not yet complete.
Few institutions and actors responsible for updating and implementing national
climate change strategies have fully considered water-related mitigation. Most
companies are not following the lead of forward-looking corporations in how
they link water, energy, biodiversity and climate goals to minimize trade-offs and
maximize synergies.
Mitigation strategies. Mitigation strategies in the water context can be
broadly divided into two groups: those that are nature-centered and those that rely
on technology. Nature-centered solutions are a vital means of moving beyond
conventional methods to address many of the world’s water problems, while,
at the same time, providing additional benefits that are critical to all aspects of
sustainable development [Arnell 2004].
These solutions use or mimic natural processes to increase water supplies (e.g.
through soil moisture retention or groundwater recharge), improve water quality
(e.g. in natural and constructed wetlands), thereby reducing the risks associated
with water-related disasters and climate change. In climate change mitigation
approaches, ecosystems act as carbon sinks, capturing greenhouse gas emissions.
Examples include the conservation or restoration of wetlands, reforestation
concerning coastal mangroves, and the preservation of natural floodplains in wa-
tercourses. Peatlands (peat soils and their surface wetlands that serve as habitat)
occupy only about 3% of the world’s land surface, but they contain at least twice
as much carbon as all of the Earth’s forests. Mangrove soils hold about 6 billion
tons of carbon, yet they can absorb three to four times more carbon than their
terrestrial counterparts [Mengistu et al. 2021].
These interconnected hydrological and terrestrial ecosystems represent a ma-
jor untapped resource for climate change mitigation. Compared to technological
solutions designed to address climate issues, nature-centered solutions often have
lower costs and multiple synergistic benefits for different sectors. Currently, how-
ever, water management is still dominated by traditional, man-made infrastructure,
and the enormous potential of nature-centered solutions remains underutilized
[Climate Change, 2013].
Technology-based mitigation options typically involve directing invest-
ments to reduce emissions from the energy supply of water infrastructure, in-
cluding drinking water, wastewater and stormwater treatment, and pumping
water for agriculture and other uses. In this context, there are various water- and
sanitation-related mitigation strategies that should be considered in the plan-
ning and management of water production, distribution, and treatment [Dolph,
Marks, 1992]:
Improving energy efficiency. Installing energy efficient pumps and
aligning them with system requirements can save 10–30% of the energy consumed
during water supply and wastewater treatment.
30 Ayla Novruzova

Additional energy efficiency measures include:

– reducing non-revenue water, i.e. water lost due to leaks, metering errors,
and theft,
– metering water consumption to manage water demand,
– application of water-saving technologies, especially in agriculture and
industry,
– system monitoring and regulation with the prospect of automation,
– utilization of non-traditional water resources such as treated wastewater,
which is regulated for irrigation [Pakmehr et al. 2021],
– production of renewable energy and its secondary use (in order to reduce
the demand for fossil fuels), namely:
a) Installation of turbines along water and wastewater systems to gene-
rate electricity (in the context of a comprehensive water management
system to determine if specific developments are feasible and viable).
b) Use of wastewater, which can be a cost-effective and sustainable so-
urce of energy, nutrients, organic particles, and other useful by-pro-
ducts. Biogas from wastewater treatment can be captured, thereby,
contributing to making the treatment carbon-neutral. In addition, given
the temperature of the wastewater, heat pumps can be installed in the
sewer pipes to produce energy (Nohara et al., 2006).
Climate change mitigation measures often have additional benefits. For ex-
ample, the strategies mentioned here can bring economic benefits to utilities such
as Austria’s Strass wastewater treatment plant, which also serves as a power plant
by generating 8% excess energy, or increase the adaptive capacity of coastal com-
munities associated with coastal mangroves (for example, by building breakwaters
and providing aquatic habitat protection).
With these benefits, additional investments in energy-efficient technologies
can be leveraged. In some cases, however, water-related mitigation strategies
require trade-offs. For example, the impacts on water must be considered when
choosing appropriate measures, especially in arid regions. For example, the pro-
duction of biofuels can lead to a decrease in water reserves and an increase in
water demand, as water resources are increasingly scarce in the agriculture of
many countries due to their growing demand for domestic or industrial use. On-
site sanitation facilities and wastewater treatment plants emit varying amounts of
air pollutants (e.g. methane), so technology choices in service planning and system
management can both exacerbate and mitigate climate change [Smith et al. 2004].
Hydropower reservoirs are considered major sources of low-carbon elec-
tricity that can be used to reduce emissions, but some reservoirs, such as those in
tropical regions with higher concentrations of organic particles, emit GHGs due
to the decomposition of organic material in the flood zone (e.g. carbon dioxide
and methane). In most other cases, reservoirs act as carbon sinks, capturing more
emissions than they emit. Failure to consider the role of water in all mitigation
(and adaptation) activities can reduce the impact of those activities and increase
 Climate change impacts on water resources 31

the risk of maladaptation or complete failure. This is why the goal is to find the
most appropriate combination of nature- and technology-oriented investments,
not only to maximize benefits and maximize system efficiency, but, at the same
time, to minimize costs and trade-offs [Adam, Lettenmaier 2008].

DISCUSSION

Over the past decade, floods, hurricanes, heat waves, droughts and other
weather events have caused over 90% of major natural disasters. Their frequency
and intensity is expected to increase due to climate change. Against this back-
ground, to eradicate all forms of poverty and hunger, combat inequality and ad-
dress climate change, in 2015, countries adopted "Transforming Our World: The
2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”. The 17 Sustainable Development
Goals set forth therein are interconnected and are intended to be mutually re-
inforcing. For example, Goal 6, "Ensure water availability and sustainability
and sanitation for all", supports the other 16 Goals. Achieving Goal 6 and other
water- and ecosystem-related goals is essential for public health and well-being,
improving nutrition, eliminating hunger, maintaining peace and stability, conserv-
ing ecosystems and biodiversity, and ensuring energy and food security. Water is
also an important component of national and local economies. Water management
contributes to gender equality and social inclusion, as well as the creation and
preservation of jobs in all sectors of the economy [Arnell 2003].
The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli-
mate Change, agreed by countries in 2015, entered into force in 2016. It address-
es the need to limit the rise in global average temperatures to well below 2°C
above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century and to adapt to the effects
of climate change. The implementation phase of the Paris Agreement focuses on
Parties working to define and implement their national commitments. The Sendai
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (the Sendai Framework) was
adopted at the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
in Sendai, Japan in 2015.
It includes seven goals and four priorities for action to reduce the frequency
and impact of disasters caused by natural hazards. Among these priorities, the
Sendai Framework calls for strengthening and implementing global mechanisms
to address hydrometeorological issues in order to increase awareness and under-
standing of water-related disaster risks and their impact on society, and to promote
risk reduction strategies. While these global agreements are separate frameworks
with their own set of goals, mechanisms, and reporting requirements, their agendas
overlap [Arnell 2004].
As 2030 steadily approaches, there is an urgent need for greater collaboration,
coherence, and coordination among them to eliminate double or even triple repeti-
tion, incoherence, and competition for funding. Given the importance of water in
32 Ayla Novruzova

achieving these goals, it can play a bridging role between these instruments, rein-
forcing and building on each country’s commitments to climate change mitigation
and adaptation, disaster risk reduction, poverty and inequality eradication, and
leaving no one behind. A good example that demonstrates this linkage is Goal 13,
“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”.
Given that the effects of climate change are closely related to water (e.g.
floods, hurricanes, and droughts), many mitigation and adaptation measures in-
clude multiple activities focused on it. Such an approach is also consistent with
the Sendai Framework’s goals of making new and existing water infrastructure
more resilient to disasters in order to provide critical life-saving services during
and after emergencies [Branstetter, Famiglietti 1999].
The Paris Agreement does not explicitly mention water. However, a closer
analysis shows how much the Paris Agreement depends on adequate water re-
sources. Many countries have identified adaptation initiatives related to freshwater,
coastal water and groundwater as a top priority of their nationally determined contri-
butions. Nevertheless, governance mechanisms and methods for harmonizing water
and climate issues are still largely absent. They, together with other key national and
cross-sectoral strategies such as National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), provide a strong
foundation for prioritizing national priorities for appropriate climate action, with the
possibility of providing guidance on priorities such as increasing water resilience to
climate change, and promoting integrated resource management. They also provide
a basis for investment in water and climate resilience. They also lay the groundwork
for investment plans that address climate vulnerability and resilience in the broader
context of the Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework [Climate
Change 2013]. The latest modeling studies estimate that approximately 7% of the
world’s population is projected to lose at least 20% of its renewable water sources
when the next phase of global warming occurs [Nohara et al. 2006].
Since the mid-twentieth century, socio-economic losses from floods have
increased mainly because of their increased incidence and vulnerability to floods.
Projections indicate that the frequency of floods will become increasingly var-
iable. Flood risk is expected to increase in parts of South Asia, Southeast Asia,
Northeast Asia, tropical Africa, and South America [Al-Gamal 2021].
In the coming decades, climate change is likely to increase the frequency
of meteorological droughts (decreased precipitation) and agricultural droughts
(decreased soil moisture) in many regions that are now arid. As a consequence,
short- or fast-onset hydrological droughts (reduced surface water and groundwa-
ter) are likely to become more frequent in these regions.
Climate change is negatively affecting freshwater ecosystems by affecting
streamflow and water quality, as well as posing risks to drinking water, even de-
spite conventional treatment. Sources of these risks include rising temperatures,
increased sediment loads, increased concentrations of nutrients and contaminants
from heavy rains, reduced dilution rates of contaminants during droughts, and
disruption of treatment plants during floods [Schar et al. 2004].
 Climate change impacts on water resources 33

In regions with snowfall, the seasonality of runoff has changed under the
influence of climate, and it is likely to continue to change. Excluding very cold
regions, warming in recent decades has reduced the maximum height of spring
snow cover and accelerated snowmelt, causing snow reserves for the dry summer
months to diminish. Smaller floods caused by melting snow have been observed,
as well as instances of increased winter flows and decreased low flows in the
summer [Smith et al. 2004].
Rivers fed by glaciers continue to warm, so the total meltwater output from
stored glacial ice in many regions will first increase and then decrease over the
next decades. Warming is increasing, making small islands, low-lying coastal
areas, and deltas increasingly at risk from sea level rise and saltwater intrusion
into freshwater systems. Harnessing the potential of water for climate change
mitigation and adaptation requires new ideas to address two major challenges:
(1) relying on the past can no longer accurately predict the future, which calls
into question confidence and creates uncertainty; (2) the work of most of the
tools, infrastructure and institutions currently used to interact on water issues is
designed primarily for certain and stable conditions, which makes decisions ten-
tative. These problems can be addressed, but will require a major overhaul of the
way water resources are managed in terms of approach and scale. Coordination
of integrated water resources management should be pursued across traditional
sectoral, political and spatial boundaries.

СONCLUSIONS

Reliability of climatological forecasts leaves much to be desired and de-

creases together with geographical scale of water object, which regime is studied.
Changes in the global climate significantly affect the water regime; from the
economic point of view, this leads to negative consequences more often than
positive ones. Water availability is a critical factor for a number of regions in
Russia, and in the next decade may become such for almost the whole territory
of the European part of the country.
However, climate change does not create new problems in connection with
water resources and their use, but only aggravates already existing ones, as a rule –
long-known and long-standing ones. Impact of climate change on water resources,
water management and water-intensive production requires increased attention to
bottlenecks in their production systems and, in the case of housing and communal
services, to social aspects of domestic water consumption, sanitary and health
requirements that ensure human health.
Development of the water sector in the post-industrial epoch should be based
on intensification methods; the extensive approach should be recognized as possi-
ble only when the intensification potential is exhausted. An attempt to solve water
problems by focusing on the expansion of the resource base under conditions of
34 Ayla Novruzova

climate change and neglecting the threats caused by them can be very costly for
both the living and, all the more so, for future generations. Management decisions
in this field should be based on a risk-based approach, given the considerable risks
of errors and high uncertainty that characterize it.
Global nature of water resources deficit, commonness of tasks on improve-
ment of water use management for countries with different hydrological condi-
tions dictate necessity of international cooperation development. Meanwhile,
among existing international agreements and treaties related to water relations
there is no document comparable in breadth of the problem and depth of its
elaboration with the Framework Convention on Climate Change, Convention on
Biological Diversity, Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.

Tytuł: Wpływ zmian klimatycznych na zasoby wodne

Streszczenie: W ciągu ostatnich kilku lat pojawiło się duże zainteresowanie kwestią zmian kli-
matycznych. Stwierdzono ich bezpośredni wpływ na otaczający świat, w tym na zasoby wodne.
Wzrost temperatury związany ze zmianami klimatu powoduje ogólny spadek opadów w postaci
śniegu, a w konsekwencji skrócenie czasu trwania pokrywy śnieżnej na wielu obszarach. Przejście
od wiosennego topnienia śniegu do spływu zimowego ma wpływ na czas przepływu strumienia na
takich obszarach. Odnotowano również, że w przyszłości wzrośnie liczba ludzi żyjących w kra-
jach z niedoborem wody. Zmiany te zagrażają jakości wody pitnej, podnoszącemu się poziomowi
wody i wysychaniu, co ma również wpływ na jakość życia i produkcję żywności. Wszystkie po-
wyższe kwestie mają niszczycielski wpływ na nasz ekosystem. Należy zauważyć, że wpływ zmian
klimatycznych na zasoby wodne oznacza także wpływ na społeczeństwa (m.in. bezpieczeństwo
zdrowotne, byt w przyszłości). Naukowcy zgodnie twierdzą, że wszelkie zmiany klimatyczne są
wynikiem działalności człowieka.
Słowa kluczowe: zmiany klimatyczne, zasoby wodne, polityka klimatyczna

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