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    Factsheet Ecra CP CHC

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    nadia
    This document discusses changes in the hydrological cycle and focuses research on vulnerable regions. It outlines key topics like the performance of numerical models, uncertainty in precipitation modeling, and societal challenges from hydrological changes. Recommendations include focusing on the climate-hydrology interface using downscaling, studying the Earth's Critical Zone, conducting impact-oriented research, quantifying uncertainties in downscaling chains, and targeting specific vulnerable regions.

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    Factsheet Ecra CP CHC

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    nadia
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    This document discusses changes in the hydrological cycle and focuses research on vulnerable regions. It outlines key topics like the performance of numerical models, uncertainty in precipitation modeling, and societal challenges from hydrological changes. Recommendations include focusing on the climate-hydrology interface using downscaling, studying the Earth's Critical Zone, conducting impact-oriented research, quantifying uncertainties in downscaling chains, and targeting specific vulnerable regions.

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    Factsheet Ecra Cp Chc

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    This document discusses changes in the hydrological cycle and focuses research on vulnerable regions. It outlines key topics like the performance of numerical models, uncertainty in precipitation modeling, and societal challenges from hydrological changes. Recommendations include focusing on the climate-hydrology interface using downscaling, studying the Earth's Critical Zone, conducting impact-oriented research, quantifying uncertainties in downscaling chains, and targeting specific vulnerable regions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    18 views2 pages

    Factsheet Ecra CP CHC

    Uploaded by

    nadia
    This document discusses changes in the hydrological cycle and focuses research on vulnerable regions. It outlines key topics like the performance of numerical models, uncertainty in precipitation modeling, and societal challenges from hydrological changes. Recommendations include focusing on the climate-hydrology interface using downscaling, studying the Earth's Critical Zone, conducting impact-oriented research, quantifying uncertainties in downscaling chains, and targeting specific vulnerable regions.

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    Prepared for the ECRA General Assembly

    7-8 March 2017 | Brussels, Belgium

    ECRA Collaborative Programme


    Changes in the Hydrological Cycle

    Changes in the hydrological cycle and vulnerable regions


    The global hydrological cycle is composed of many different and interconnected elements, which include
    evaporation from water surfaces and bare soil, evapotranspiration from vegetated land, transport of water
    vapour in the atmosphere, cloud droplet formation and cloud dynamics, liquid and solid precipitation,
    glaciers and snow cover dynamics, surface and river runoff, and subsurface processes such as root dynamics
    in vegetation and groundwater flow. The different components of the hydrological cycle react in complex,
    dynamic and often non-linear ways to climate change, sometimes leading to an amplification of the initial
    change, sometimes giving rise to negative feedbacks. While hydrological impacts of climate change – such
    as spatial and temporal alterations in water balance, streamflow and extreme events (floods, droughts) –
    typically occur at regional or local scales, they can initiate modifications that lead to larger-scale or even
    global changes in the water cycle. All scales are interconnected.
    This Collaborative Programme fosters the study of changes in the hydrological cycle and its impacts at
    global and regional scales and generally aims at improving the scientific understanding of hydrological
    processes under modified climatic boundary conditions. It places a focus on regions with an already
    experienced or expected vulnerability to climate variability and change, such as the Mediterranean and
    mountain areas, and addresses the ecological and socioeconomic challenges that are related thereto.

    Key topics for ECRA – Changes in the Hydrological Cycle


     Performance and limitations of numerical models
     Representation of processes in the models and their process-oriented evaluation
     Uncertainty in precipitation, one of the most difficult variables of the water cycle to observe and model
     Societal challenges related to studying impacts of changes in components of the hydrological cycle
     Identification of climate hotspot regions, such as the Mediterranean and the global mountains
    Recommendations for research priorities in H2020 and beyond

     Focus on climate-hydro interface


    In the last decades, the impact of climate change on the water cycle has been increasingly studied,
    owing to new modelling frameworks operating in downscaling and upscaling modes. These have the
    capability of addressing scaling issues and coupling feedback mechanisms operating at multiple
    scales. Some technical questions arising at the climate and hydrology interface include: the role of
    observations and reference data, the appropriate downscaling approach for the variable at hand, bias-
    correction methods, the quantification of uncertainties across different scales and methodologies to
    reduce them.

     New key topics: the Earth’s Critical Zone


    One of the less studied aspects of the water cycle concerns the Earth’s Critical Zone (ECZ), the veneer
    of our planet from the top of the tree canopy to the bottom of drinkable water aquifers where most
    life supporting processes occur. Research on ECZ is perforce multi-sectoral and requires
    interdisciplinarity. It includes the potential influence of paleo-evolution on ECZ ecosystem functions,
    the response of the ECZ to perturbations such as climate and land use changes, possible benefits of
    integrating new sensing technology and models for the simulation of essential terrestrial variables, and
    safeguarding and managing ECZ services.

     Impact-oriented research
    A lack of water for drinking, agriculture, industry and energy production can impose risks for civil
    security. Therefore, it is important to assess and predict possible changes in water availability,
    distribution, and quality. Research needs to be impact-oriented in order to respond to crucial societal
    challenges resulting from changes in different components the hydrological cycle and to support
    adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The appropriate context for adopting this approach is one of
    collaboration between scientists including hydrologists, social scientists and economists.

     Modelling framework: a downscaling chain and related uncertainties


    A scale mismatch still exists between the typical spatial resolution of global (70-100 km) and regional
    (10-40 km) climate models as well as eco-hydrological and impact models (mostly well below 1 km) to
    represent the response of a given variable to climatic forcing or atmosphere-surface interactions. The
    scale gap can be bridged through statistical and/or stochastic downscaling methods. While the
    reliability of both models and downscaling techniques has considerably improved, the cascade of
    uncertainty from climate to impact and hydrological modelling has not been systematically
    accounted for. The uncertainty quantification and reduction and its correct communication to the
    target audience are of primary importance for better understanding and predicting changes in the
    hydrological cycle and possible impacts on water resources.

     Focus on specific regions/ecosystems/natural laboratories


    Regions that respond more rapidly and intensely to climatic changes and anthropogenic pressures
    often provide essential goods to human societies. Therefore, it is crucial to focus research efforts on
    vulnerable areas (mountain regions, coastal areas, natural parks, etc.) because their degradation can
    cause serious threats to ecosystems, habitat degradation, risk of collapse and loss of ecosystem
    services.

    Coordinators
    Elisa Palazzi (National Research Council (CNR), Italy): e.palazzi@isac.cnr.it
    Ralf Ludwig (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU), Germany): r.ludwig@lmu.de

    Photo credits: pixabay.com

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