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Reliability Analysis Using MINITAB and Python 1st
Edition Jaejin Hwang Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Jaejin Hwang
ISBN(s): 9781119870760, 1119870763
Edition: 1
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Year: 2022
Language: english
Reliability Analysis Using MINITAB and Python
 Reliability Analysis Using MINITAB and Python

Jaejin Hwang
Northern Illinois University, USA

ISTUDY ffirs.indd 3 18-11-2022 10:07:45

This edition first published 2023
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 v

Contents

About the Author ix

Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
About the Companion Website xv

1 Introduction 1
1.1 Reliability Concepts 1
1.1.1 Reliability in Our Lives 1
1.1.2 History of Reliability 2
1.1.3 Definition of Reliability 2
1.1.4 Quality and Reliability 3
1.1.5 The Importance of Reliability 4
1.2 Failure Concepts 5
1.2.1 Definition of Failure 5
1.2.2 Causes of Failure 5
1.2.3 Types of Failure Time 7
1.2.4 The Reliability Bathtub Curve 12
1.3 Summary 16

2 Basic Concepts of Probability 19

2.1 Probability 19
2.1.1 The Importance of Probability in Reliability 20
2.2 Joint Probability with Independence 20
2.3 Union Probability 21
2.4 Conditional Probability 22
2.5 Joint Probability with Dependence 22
2.6 Mutually Exclusive Events 23
2.7 Complement Rule 24
2.8 Total Probability 24
vi Contents

2.9 Bayes’ Rule 25

2.10 Summary 26

3 Lifetime Distributions 29
3.1 Probability Distributions 29
3.1.1 Random Variables 29
3.2 Discrete Probability Distribution 30
3.3 Continuous Probability Distribution 32
3.3.1 Reliability Concepts 33
3.3.2 Failure Rate 35
3.4 Exponential Distribution 37
3.4.1 Exponential Lack of Memory Property 40
3.4.2 Excel Practice 41
3.4.3 Minitab Practice 41
3.4.4 Python Practice 43
3.5 Weibull Distribution 46
3.5.1 Excel Practice 52
3.5.2 Minitab Practice 52
3.5.3 Python Practice 53
3.6 Normal Distribution 54
3.6.1 Excel Practice 60
3.6.2 Minitab Practice 60
3.6.3 Python Practice 62
3.7 Lognormal Distribution 63
3.7.1 Excel Practice 66
3.7.2 Minitab Practice 66
3.7.3 Python Practice 68
3.8 Summary 70

4 Reliability Data Plotting 77

4.1 Straight Line Properties 77
4.2 Least Squares Fit 79
4.2.1 Excel Practice 81
4.2.2 Minitab Practice 82
4.2.3 Python Practice 82
4.3 Linear Rectification 84
4.4 Exponential Distribution Plotting 84
4.4.1 Excel Practice 92
4.4.2 Minitab Practice 92
4.4.3 Python Practice 94
4.5 Weibull Distribution Plotting 96
 Contents vii

4.5.1 Minitab Practice 99

4.5.2 Python Practice 100
4.6 Normal Distribution Plotting 103
4.6.1 Minitab Practice 105
4.6.2 Python Practice 105
4.7 Lognormal Distribution Plotting 106
4.7.1 Minitab Practice 108
4.7.2 Python Practice 110
4.8 Summary 111

5 Accelerated Life Testing 115

5.1 Accelerated Testing Theory 115
5.2 Exponential Distribution Acceleration 117
5.3 Weibull Distribution Acceleration 118
5.3.1 Minitab Practice 119
5.3.2 Python Practice 120
5.4 Arrhenius Model 123
5.4.1 Minitab Practice 125
5.4.2 Python Practice 127
5.5 Summary 129

6 System Failure Modeling 131

6.1 Reliability Block Diagram 131
6.2 Series System Model 132
6.3 Parallel System Model 135
6.4 Combined Serial–Parallel System Model 138
6.5 k-out-of-n System Model 140
6.6 Minimal Paths and Minimal Cuts 142
6.7 Summary 148

7 Repairable Systems 151

7.1 Corrective Maintenance 151
7.2 Preventive Maintenance 152
7.3 Mean Time between Failures 152
7.4 Mean Time to Repair 153
7.5 Availability 153
7.5.1 Inherent Availability 153
7.5.2 Achieved Availability 154
7.5.3 Operational Availability 155
7.5.4 System Availability 156
7.6 Maintainability 156
viii Contents

7.7 Preventive Maintenance Scheduling 157

7.7.1 Python Practice 160
7.8 Summary 161

8 Case Studies 165

8.1 Parametric Reliability Analysis 165
8.1.1 Description of Case Study 166
8.1.2 Minitab Practice 166
8.1.3 Python Practice 177
8.2 Nonparametric Reliability Analysis 184
8.2.1 Description of Case Study 184
8.2.2 Minitab Practice 185
8.2.3 Python Practice 189
8.3 Driverless Car Failure Data Analysis 190
8.3.1 Description of Case Study 190
8.3.2 Minitab Practice 193
8.3.3 Python Practice 199
8.4 Warranty Analysis 202
8.4.1 Description of Case Study 202
8.4.2 Minitab Practice 204
8.5 Stress–Strength Interference Analysis 210
8.5.1 Description of Case Study 210
8.5.2 Minitab Practice 211
8.5.3 Python Practice 213
8.6 Summary 214

Index 219
 ix

About the Author

Jaejin Hwang is an associate professor of industrial and systems engineering at

Northern Illinois University. He has been teaching reliability engineering and
advanced quality control courses since 2016. He has actively used various soft-
ware including Minitab, Excel, Python, SPSS, and Matlab to promote students’
learning. Dr Hwang holds a PhD in industrial engineering from Ohio State
University. His research interests span the areas of quality and reliability, work
measurement and work design, ergonomics, and occupational biomechanics. In
2022 he was nominated for the excellence in undergraduate teaching award at
Northern Illinois University. He has authored over 50 technical papers published
in peer-reviewed journals, international conference proceedings, and magazines.
His book Data Analytics and Visualization in Quality Analysis Using Tableau was
published by CRC Press in July 2021. Dr Hwang has been involved in numerous
student graduation research and industrial projects. He is an executive committee
member of the International Society for Occupational Ergonomics and Safety. He
is an editorial board member of Work: A Journal of Prevention, Assessment &
Rehabilitation and the Korean Society for Emotion and Sensibility. He is a guest
editor for the special issue (November 2020–November 2022) in the International
Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
 xi

Preface

Overview

Reliability is a vital and effective tool to analyze how long products and services
can show satisfactory performance without failure. Today, we live in a society that
uses complex and sophisticated physical and digital products. With the
development of these technologies, the importance of the field of reliability is
increasing.
This book is based on the statistical theory of how to analyze reliability. We
want to quantitatively and accurately predict the reliability of products and ser-
vices using various statistical distributions and probabilities. Reliability is the tool
that helps to perform these analysis methods efficiently. Reliability tools allow us
to process massive amounts of data quickly and automate our analysis methods
efficiently. This book introduces you to how to perform reliability analysis using
Minitab and Python.

Audience

● Students and professionals interested in the field of reliability

● Undergraduate or graduate students majoring in industrial engineering,
mechanical engineering, electronic engineering, or related fields

Chapter Outline

Chapter 1, Introduction, introduces the basic concept and history of reliability.

The causes for failure are introduced, and the reliability bathtub curve is explained.
Chapter 2, Basic Concepts of Probability, introduces the basic theory of proba-
bility. Probability calculation is performed through reliability-related examples.
xii Preface 

Chapter 3, Lifetime Distribution, deals with statistical distributions frequently

used in the field of reliability. Practice includes making graphs and flexibly
modifying parameter values of statistical distributions using Minitab and
Python.
In Chapter 4, Reliability Data Plotting, we practice finding appropriate statistical
distributions by plotting reliability data and finding relevant parameter values.
We learn to perform these procedures efficiently with Minitab and Python.
In Chapter 5, Accelerated Life Testing, we study the theory of accelerated life test-
ing and learn to predict failure characteristics in an actual use environment
through the accelerated life testing data. We learn to plot and make predictions
about various stressful environments using the reliability tool.
Chapter 6, System Failure Modeling, calculates how the failure probability and
distribution of various factors affect the failure characteristics of the entire system
based on statistical methods.
Chapter 7, Repairable Systems, deals with preventive and corrective maintenance.
It covers calculations to establish a schedule that minimizes costs in preventive
maintenance.
In Chapter 8, Case Studies, reliability analysis is performed through various
examples using Minitab and Python. Warranty analysis, non-parametric analysis,
and stress–strength interference analysis that have not been covered in previous
chapters are introduced.

Text Material

Minitab, Python, and Excel files related to the examples used in this book are
provided. PowerPoint lecture materials for lecturers are also provided.
 xiii

Acknowledgments

I would like to thank the staff of John Wiley, who readily accepted the proposal for
this book. In writing Reliability Analysis, I was inspired by the writings and
resources of many reliability experts. I would like to express my gratitude to the
following people: the authors of the book Applied Reliability (Paul A. Tobias and
David C. Trindade) and the developers of the Python library related to reliability
(Matthew Reid and Derryn Knife). This book is based on materials from reliability
engineering classes I have taught over five years. I would like to thank all Northern
Illinois University students who took my courses for providing valuable feedback
to ensure that the course material continues to evolve.
 xv

About the Companion Website

This book is accompanied by a companion website which includes a number of

resources created by author that you will find helpful.
www.wiley.com\go\Hwang\ReliabilityAnalysisUsingMinitabandPython
The website includes the following resources for each chapter:
● Minitab
● Python
● Excel
 1

Introduction

Chapter Overview and Learning Objectives

● To understand the importance of the field of reliability in modern society.
● To learn the history and motivation of the field of reliability.
● To understand the definitions of reliability and failure.
● To explore several causes of failures.
● To understand different types of failure time.
● To learn the concept of the reliability bathtub curve.

1.1 Reliability Concepts

1.1.1 Reliability in Our Lives

In modern society, we rely on various complex and advanced devices and systems
to enjoy convenience and enhance our lives. For example, autonomous vehicles
allow drivers to engage in other activities while driving, and advances in space
technology have ushered in an era in which civilians can also go to space.
However, advances in technology have some side effects. With the development
of technology, the area in which humans can intervene is reduced, and when
there is a problem in a system or device, humans can be adversely affected. For
example, cars that are being produced these days are often electronic systems that
systematically operate the overall functions of the car. If the central computer
unit that controls the car breaks down, the driver will be limited in what they can
do with it. Autonomous vehicle accidents due to system errors are also ­occasionally
encountered, which can be viewed in a similar context.
With the development of these technologies, the necessity of the reliability
field can be felt more acutely. A complex system may have thousands or tens of

Reliability Analysis Using MINITAB and Python, First Edition. Jaejin Hwang.
© 2023 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published 2023 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Companion Website: www.wiley.com\go\Hwang\ReliabilityAnalysisUsingMinitabandPython
2 1 Introduction

thousands of large and small parts interlocked. If the failure characteristics of

such a system and the time it takes to failure can be predicted, very serious acci-
dents can be prevented, and customer satisfaction can be increased.

1.1.2 History of Reliability

When did the field of reliability begin to gain attention? The United States is one
of the major countries that pioneered the field of reliability. The need for reli-
ability was highlighted during World War II. Electronic military equipment was
shipped immediately after development, but when it arrived at the destination
(far east), the equipment underwent many failures. At the time of development,
there was no defect when the quality inspection was conducted. After investiga-
tion, it was found that the place where the equipment was actually used was a
high-temperature and high-humidity environment, which caused equipment
(vacuum tube) failure. In other words, the environment in which the equipment
was developed and the environment in which it was used were very different,
causing failure. At this time, a professional reliability analysis team was founded,
and efforts to reduce the occurrence of failures in the actual equipment-use
­environment began.
At the same time, Germany also began to actively consider using the reli-
ability field to increase the mission success rate of missiles. In modern society,
reliability-related fields are widely used in addition to their use in the military
industry. Reliability is considered to be an extended concept of quality control,
and it is not an exaggeration to say that reliability is considered in designing and
manufacturing almost all equipment and products, from industrial equipment
to household appliances.

1.1.3 Definition of Reliability

According to the dictionary definition of the word reliability, it is as follows:
The quality of being trustworthy or of performing consistently well.
This definition can also be considered in connection with product or system
failure. It can be said that minimizing failure is one of the important factors of
reliability.
In addition, time is another very important factor in defining reliability,
because reliability is dependent on time. For example, the failure rate within
1 year of buying a car and after 10 years will be very different. For this reason, the
concept of time is an essential element in reliability.
Finally, reliability can be expressed as a probability. That is, it can be evaluated
through a quantified method. For example, the probability that the purchased car
 1.1 Reliability Concepts 3

will fail within 1 year could be 5%, and the probability that it will fail within 10
years could be 90%.
In summary, reliability can be defined as:
The probability that a system or product will perform the expected
function in a specific environment over a specific period of time.
In other words, the defect in military equipment (vacuum tubes) in World War II
previously mentioned can be seen as a result of the lack of consideration for the
specific environment in which the equipment was used. In order to understand
and predict reliability in such a case, the concept of probability and distribution of
statistics can be applied, and it will be mainly covered in this book.

Case
In the US auto market, the warranty is usually 3 years or 36,000 miles. Auto-
maker A is planning a 5-year or 60,000-mile warranty to give it an edge over
its competitors. The automaker wants to know whether the parts they receive
from their subcontractors are 99% or more reliable over 5 years. How can sub-
contractors prove the reliability of parts?

1.1.4 Quality and Reliability

Quality and reliability are often considered together, but the difference between
these two concepts needs to be explored, as shown in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 Description of quality and reliability.

Quality Reliability

Before a product is shipped, check it to be Evaluate how satisfactorily the product

sure there are no defects and the product is or system operates throughout the
satisfactory. entire lifespan.
Assess whether the characteristics of the Focus on how long a product or system
product or component are within the can maintain satisfactory functioning
specification and whether the process is with minimal failures.
within control.

The American rating company J.D. Power and Associates considers the
quality and reliability of automobiles as important metrics, and automotive
customers are also interested in these metrics. The new car Initial Quality
Index (IQS) is an index that quantifies the number of problems per 100 new
4 1 Introduction

cars within 90 days. The Vehicle Dependability Study Index (VDS) quantifies
the number of problems per 100 vehicles that occurred in the previous year
among vehicles older than 3 years. We can see by the stated time spans that the
concept of reliability is implied.

1.1.5 The Importance of Reliability

As products and systems become more sophisticated and complex, reliability
becomes more and more critical. In the case of a smartphone, more than 500 parts
are normally included. Failure of certain parts can lead to serious failures that make
the entire smartphone unusable. In addition, the complexity of products and systems
can expose them to more human error in the design and the development stage.
Failure of products and systems has a substantial impact on safety and cost.
According to the factor of 10 rule, the more delayed the response to the reliability
problem is, the more the cost of tenfold or greater increases as it moves to the next
stage, as seen in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1 The factor of 10 rule.

The development cycle of products is gradually shortening due to advances in

technology, heated competition for products, and increased customer expec­
tations. In the case of smartphones, development cycles often range from six
months to less than a year. Such a tight schedule increases the risk of human
 1.2 Failure Concepts 5

errors and failures. The importance of reliability concepts throughout the entire
product cycle could grow in these circumstances.

1.2 Failure Concepts

1.2.1 Definition of Failure
The dictionary definition of failure is as follows:
Lack of success.
The omission of expected or required action.
If we approach the definition of failure from an engineering perspective, it is as
follows:
The inability of a system or component to perform its required functions
within specified performance requirements.
In other words, the concept of failure is closely related to the definition of
reliability mentioned previously. Failure can also be classified into hard and
soft failures, as seen in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2 Description of hard and soft failures.

Hard Failure Soft Failure

Failure in which all system Failure that reaches the endurance limit due to
functions are lost due to sudden gradual deterioration of operating characteristics
stop of function. and deterioration of performance.

Adverse effects caused by failure can be divided into three stages according to
the scale shown in Figure 1.2. A small failure can cause inconvenience in our
daily life, such as an air conditioning malfunction. Intermediate failures can take
a toll on our bodies, property, safety, and finances, such as with a vehicle’s brake
failure. In addition, large failures cause disasters in society. Examples include
breakdowns or crashes of airplanes and spacecraft.

1.2.2 Causes of Failure

There are many different causes of failure. Let’s take a look at each of these causes.
1) Overstress
If the external load is higher than the strength that the component can with-
stand, failure could occur. This could include mechanical overstress as well as
electrical overstress. For example, the maximum load that an elevator can
6 1 Introduction

Figure 1.2 The adverse effects of failure.

withstand is specified. If a load higher than this maximum capacity is applied,

a failure could occur in the elevator’s mechanical system. Thus, an alarm
system is activated when the load is exceeded to prevent failure.
2) Variation
The greater the variation in external loads and component strength, the greater
the chance that failure could occur. Figure 1.3 shows the distribution of load
and strength with no variation. The external load occurs consistently only at a
specific value, and the strength of the component also continuously holds only
a particular value. In this case, theoretically, the probability of a failure can be
considered negligible.

Figure 1.3 Frequency distribution of load and strength with no variation.

 1.2 Failure Concepts 7

Figure 1.4 shows the distribution of the load and strength with considerable
variation. There is an overlap between the load and strength distributions. In
other words, the excessive load portion could be greater than the weakest strength
portion, which could lead to failure. This indicates that a greater variation bet-
ween the load and strength could increase the chance of failure.

Figure 1.4 Frequency distribution of load and strength with variation.

3) Wearout
Failure can also be affected by wearout or fatigue, which means that the load
and strength are time-dependent. The magnitude and variations of the load and
strength could change over time, which would cause the chance of failure.
Figure 1.5 shows an example of wearout failure. The load’s magnitude and var-
iation are consistent over time. However, the strength’s magnitude decreases,
and the variation increases over time. After a certain period of time, the overlap
between the load and strength can be observed, which indicates the increased
chance of failure due to wearout.

1.2.3 Types of Failure Time

Failure time can be categorized into different types depending on the test methods
and conditions.
● Exact failure time
● Right-censored failure time
● Left-censored failure time
● Interval-censored failure time
8 1 Introduction

Figure 1.5 Frequency distribution of load and strength over time.

1.2.3.1 Exact Failure Time

Exact failure time means that the failure occurred at an exact time, and this
failure time is observed and recorded. Figure 1.6 illustrates the exact failure time
of three different parts. The advantage of the exact failure time is to obtain accu-
rate information of when the components fail. The limitation of the exact failure
time is time-­consuming and often requires the cost of setting up measurement
devices.

Figure 1.6 Description of the exact failure time.

 1.2 Failure Concepts 9

1.2.3.2 Censored Failure Time

The censored failure time indicates that the exact failure time of the components is
unknown or not observed during the test. Given the nature of highly reliable compo-
nents, it is realistic and possible not to observe the failure of components during the
test period. In this case, we denote this condition as a censored failure. Depending on
the test methods and situations, there are three different censored failure times: right-
censored failure time, left-censored failure time, and interval-censored failure time.

1.2.3.3 Right-Censored Failure Time

Right-censored failure time means that the component does not fail even after the
completion of the test period. Figure 1.7 describes an example of right-censored
failure time. At the time point the test period ends, part 2 has not failed and is still
running. In this case, part 2’s exact failure time is unknown. We use the test peri-
od’s completion time as a right-censored failure time of part 2.

Figure 1.7 Description of right-censored failure time.

1.2.3.4 Left-Censored Failure Time

Left-censored failure time means that when the test period begins, some parts
have already failed, so their exact failure time is unknown. Figure 1.8 illustrates
left-censored failure time. When the test period begins, it is observed that part 2
has already failed. In this case, we do not know exactly when part 2 failed.

1.2.3.5 Interval-Censored Failure Time

Interval-censored failure time includes the number of failures during the test
10 1 Introduction

Figure 1.8 Description of left-censored failure time.

counting values. The advantage of this method is to obtain the data easily with
minimal cost since sophisticated measurement is not needed. The drawback of
this method is that the exact failure time information of each part cannot be
assessed. Figure 1.9 describes an example of interval-censored failure time.
During the test period, we can see that three failures occurred.

Figure 1.9 Description of interval-censored failure time.

 1.2 Failure Concepts 11

1.2.3.6 Minitab Practice

With Minitab, we could set up the data by indicating the censored values. For
example, there were 10 components tested to observe the failures. At the end of
the testing period of 45 hours, 7 components failed, but 3 components still sur-
vived as seen in Table 1.3.

Table 1.3 Time to failure data of 10 components.

Component Time to Failure (hours) Censoring

1 5 No
2 8 No
3 15 No
4 32 No
5 38 No
6 42 No
7 43 No
8 Unknown Yes
9 Unknown Yes
10 Unknown Yes

The data set can be prepared when using Minitab as seen in Figure 1.10. The
censoring column is set, where 0 means non-censored value and 1 denotes the
censored values. For the censored values, the end of the observation time
(45 hours) can be input for the time to failure.

Figure 1.10 Data set with Minitab.

12 1 Introduction

1.2.3.7 Python Practice

Python can be used to manage the data with different types of failure time. Here
is an example of treating right-censored failure times.
The Python codes can be written using the platform of Google Colab (https://
colab.research.google.com). Here are the Python codes to manage the right-
censored time data (Figure 1.11).
[pip install] allows installing the library resource of [reliability] (Reid, 2022).
[import make_right_censored_data] will help us to manage the right-­
censored failure time.
We could write the failure time in the data array. The threshold is the end of
testing.
Although we do not know the actual failure time of the three survived compo-
nents, we could put arbitrary values exceeding the threshold to treat them as cen-
sored values.
[print] allows us to display the uncensored and censored data.

Figure 1.11 Python codes to manage the right-censored failure time data.

After running all the codes, the results will be shown on the Google Colab. The
last three components’ right-censored failure time was assigned as 45 hours
(Figure 1.12).

Figure 1.12 Right-censored data output

using Python.

1.2.4 The Reliability Bathtub Curve

The reliability bathtub curve is used to represent the failure rate of the component
over time. The failure rate curve looks like a contour of a bathtub, thus it is called
a bathtub curve. The failure rate is also called a hazard rate. This measure indicates
the number of failures per unit time (e.g., hour, day, week, month, year).
In the reliability bathtub curve, there are three different shapes of failure rate
curves in different life stages, as seen in Figure 1.13.
 1.2 Failure Concepts 13

● Early life
● Useful life
● Wearout life

Figure 1.13 The reliability bathtub curve.

1.2.4.1 Early Life

In the early life stage, a high failure rate is expected at the beginning of product
use. It is also called infant mortality. There is a rapidly decreasing pattern of the
failure rate over time because defective items are investigated and continuously
discarded at this stage. The burn-in tests in electronic parts can be performed in
this early life stage. This stage would not be desirable to customers due to the high
failure rate. It would substantially increase customer dissatisfaction and also
increase warranty expense for the manufacturer.
Here are some possible causes of failures in the early life stage.
● Manufacturing defects
● Assembly errors
● Poor quality control
● Poor workmanship
Here are some possible improvement actions in this stage.
● Improved quality control
● Accelerated stress testing

1.2.4.2 Useful Life

In the useful life stage, a low and constant failure rate over time is expected. In other
words, the failure rate is not affected by time. This stage could be ideal for shipping
a product to customers. In this stage, random failures mainly occur. The design goal
is to maintain the failure rate as low as possible throughout the time period.
14 1 Introduction

Here are some possible causes of failures in the useful life stage.
● Environment
● Human errors
● Random excessive loads
Here are some possible improvement actions in this stage.
● High strength redundancy
● Robust design

1.2.4.3 Wearout Life

In the wearout life stage, the failure rate is continuously rising over time and is
primarily related to aging or degradation of components. The failure rate is highly
influenced by time, and cumulative effects are a main concern.
Here are some possible causes of failures in the wearout life stage.
● Fatigue
● Corrosion
● Aging
● Friction
Here are some possible improvement actions in this stage.
● Preventive maintenance
● Replacement
● Robust material

1.2.4.4 Python Practice

Python can be used to display the reliability bathtub curve. Google Colab (https://
colab.research.google.com) can be utilized to run the Python codes.
[pip install reliability] would install the library resource of the reliability
package.
[matlpotlib] can also be installed to generate various visualizations.
[reliability.Distributions] source can be used to generate several lifetime
distributions. These distributions will be discussed later.
[matplotlib.pyplot] and [numpy] can be used to deal with the data in a
specific array, and generate the plots.
[np.linspace] determines the start, end, and interval of the data range.
[Weibull_Distribution] with specific parameters can be used to construct the
plot of the early stage (infant_mortality).
[Exponential_Distribution] with a specific parameter is used to construct the
plot of the useful life stage (random_failures).
 1.2 Failure Concepts 15

[Lognormal_Distribution] with specific parameters is used to construct the

plot of the wearout life stage.
Figure 1.14 shows the Python codes used to construct the reliability bathtub
curve.

Figure 1.14 Python codes used to construct the reliability bathtub curve.

After running all codes, the reliability bathtub curve can be created, as shown
in Figure 1.15.

Bathtub Curve

0.0175 Infant Mortality [Weibull]

Random Failures [Exponential]
0.0150 Wear Out [Lognormal]
Combined Hazard Rate
0.0125
Hazard

0.0100

0.0075

0.0050

0.0025

0.0000
0 200 400 600 800 1000
x Values

Figure 1.15 The reliability bathtub curve with Python.

16 1 Introduction

1.3 Summary
● With the development of modern and complex technologies, the necessity of
the reliability field can be felt more acutely.
● The need for reliability was highlighted during World War II.
● Reliability is the probability that a system or product will perform the expected
function in a specific environment over a specific period of time.
● Failure is the inability of a system or component to perform its required
functions within specified performance requirements.
● There are many different causes of failure, such as overstress, variation, and
wearout.
● The failure time can be categorized into different types depending on the test
methods and conditions, including exact failure time, right-censored failure
time, left-censored failure time, and interval-censored failure time.
● In the reliability bathtub curve, there are three different shapes of failure rate
curves in different life stages including early life, useful life, and wearout life.

Exercises

1 Determine the proper type of failure time for each of the following cases.
A An engineer inspects the components every 10 hours and records the
number of failures in each interval.
B The reliability engineer started the inspection of 10 capacitors. In the
beginning, it was found that 1 capacitor had already failed.
C An engineer tested 100 fans for 500 hours. At the end of the test period,
98 fans’ exact failure times were obtained. However, 2 fans still
survived.

2 Explore some cases of big failures in the past. Investigate the potential causes
of the failures.

3 Investigate the process of a burn-in test on electronic parts.

4 Find three small failures in our daily lives. Investigate the possible causes of
these failures, and suggest improvement actions.

5 Compare the characteristics of failure rate across different stages of the reli-
ability bathtub curve.
 Reference 17

Reference

Reid, M. (2022). Reliability—a Python library for reliability engineering (Version

0.8.1) [Computer software]. Zenodo. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/
ZENODO.3938000 [Accessed 06/27/2022].
 19

Basic Concepts of Probability

Chapter Overview and Learning Objectives

● To understand the fundamental concepts of probability.

● To understand the differences between various probability rules.
● To apply the probability rules to reliability examples.
● To learn the required assumptions of the probability rules.

2.1 Probability

Probability is a ratio of specific outcomes to total possible outcomes. In our daily

lives, we hear from the news about the chance of rainfall, which could be an
example of probability. The equation for probability is shown here.
n
P (A ) = (2.1)
N
The n indicates the number of elements in events. The N denotes the number of
elements in the sample space. Thus, P(A) means the probability of obtaining an
outcome A. Probability is always ranged between 0 and 1 (Equation 2.2).
If P(A) = 0, the event cannot occur. If P(A) = 1, a sure event is expected.
0 ≤ P (A ) ≤ 1 (2.2)

Example 2.1 If you flip a coin, what are the possible outcomes? If you are inter-
ested in seeing a tail, what is the probability?

Answer:
Possible outcomes = {Head, Tail}.

Reliability Analysis Using MINITAB and Python, First Edition. Jaejin Hwang.
© 2023 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published 2023 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Companion Website: www.wiley.com\go\Hwang\ReliabilityAnalysisUsingMinitabandPython
20 2 Basic Concepts of Probability

1
P (Tail ) =
2

2.1.1 The Importance of Probability in Reliability

The probability concept can be effectively applied to the field of reliability.
Quantitative estimation of the chance of failure of components or systems could
be useful information. Not only can we estimate the probability of a single compo-
nent, but we can also use probability to estimate the entire system’s reliability.
Probability concepts such as joint probability and union probability can be used to
understand the whole system’s chance of failure or survival.

Example 2.2 What is the chance of seeing two defective components when you
inspect three components?
Answer:
Let’s denote that D = defective component, and G = good component.
The sample space is {DDD, DGD, DDG, GDD, DGG, GDG, GGD, GGG}.
Event A is getting exactly two defective components: {DGD, DDG, GDD}.

3
P (A ) =
8

2.2 Joint Probability with Independence

Joint probability is the probability of multiple events occurring simultaneously. In

For two events, it can be written as P(A∩B) or P(A and B).

the Venn diagram, it can be an interaction of multiple events as seen in Figure 2.1.

A A∩B B

Figure 2.1 Joint probability.

 2.3 Union Probability 21

If multiple events are independent of each other, the multiplication rule can be
applied. The probability of each independent event can be simply multiplied
together. Equation 2.3 shows the joint probability of two independent events.

P ( AB) = P ( A ) P (B) (2.3)

Example 2.3 In a manufacturing plant, there are two main machines. For
machine A, the probability of producing a defective part is 0.03. For machine B,
the probability of seeing a defective part is 0.05. The two machines are indepen-
dently operating. What is the probability that both machines will produce defec-
tive parts simultaneously?

Answer:
Event A = a defective part from machine A
Event B = a defective part from machine B

P ( AB) = P ( A ) P (B) = 0.03× 0.05 = 0.0015

2.3 Union Probability

Union probability is the probability that either of multiple events may occur. For
two events, it can be written as P(A∪B) or P(A or B). In a Venn diagram, it can be
a whole area of multiple events as seen in Figure 2.2.

A B

Figure 2.2 Union probability.

The equation of the union probability of two events is shown here.

P ( A ∪ B) = P ( A ) + P (B) − P ( AB) (2.4)

Example 2.4 In a manufacturing plant, there are two main machines. For
machine A, the probability of producing a defective part is 0.03. For machine B,
the probability of seeing a defective part is 0.05. The probability that both machines

ISTUDY c02.indd 21 10/13/2022 8:04:44 PM

22 2 Basic Concepts of Probability

produce defective parts simultaneously is 0.0015. What is the probability that

machine A or machine B will produce a defective part?
Answer:
Event A = a defective part from machine A
Event B = a defective part from machine B
P ( A ∪ B) = P ( A ) + P (B) − P ( AB) = 0.03 + 0.05 − 0.0015 = 0.0785

2.4 Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of an event given that another event has
occurred. For example, P(A|B) is a probability of event A given that event B has
occurred. The equation can be written as seen here.
P ( A ∩ B)
P ( A|B) = (2.5)
P (B)
For the reverse condition, P(B|A), the equation can be written as seen here.
P ( A ∩ B)
P (B|A ) = (2.6)
P(A)

Example 2.5 In a group of 100 defective mobile phone cover glass pieces, 40
pieces have scratch issues, 30 pieces have angle cutting issues, and 20 pieces have
both scratch and angle cutting issues. If a defective phone cover glass piece,
chosen at random, has a scratch issue, what is the probability that the item also
has an angle cutting issue?

Answer:
Event A = scratch issue
Event B = angle cutting issue
20
P ( A ∩ B) 100
P (B|A ) = = = 0.5
P (A) 40
100

2.5 Joint Probability with Dependence

If multiple events are dependent on each other, the joint probability can be calcu-
lated by considering the conditional probability:
P ( AB) = P ( A ) P (B | A )
 2.6 Mutually Exclusive Events 23

or
P ( AB) = P (B) P ( A | B) (2.7)

Example 2.6 In a manufacturing plant, there are two main machines. For
machine A, the probability of producing a defective part is 0.03. For machine B,
the probability of seeing a defective part is 0.05. The two machines are dependent
on each other. For example, if machine A produces a defective part, the proba-
bility of seeing a defective part from machine B is 0.06. What is the probability that
both machines will produce defective parts simultaneously?
Answer:
Event A = a defective part from machine A
Event B = a defective part from machine B

P ( AB) = P ( A ) P (B | A ) = 0.03 × 0.06 = 0.0018

2.6 Mutually Exclusive Events

If multiple events cannot occur simultaneously, they are called mutually

exclusive events. For example, if we toss a coin, the upside coin can be either a
head or a tail but not both. As seen in Figure 2.3, there is no intersection between
events A and B. Thus, the joint probability, P(AB), is 0. The union probability can
be written as

Figure 2.3 Mutually exclusive events.

P ( A ∪ B) = P ( A ) + P (B) (2.8)

Example 2.7 In a group of 100 defective mobile phone cover glass pieces, 40
pieces have scratch issues, and 30 pieces have angle cutting issues. These two
issues cannot happen together in one piece. What is the probability that a mobile
phone cover glass piece has a scratch issue or an angle cutting issue?
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many more cannot afford to be so; an alteration, whatever it may be,
ought therefore to come under the notice of some board or other, so
as to be kept, if possible, out of the hands of Mr. Joseph Hume and
his liberal associates.
To all who saw much service during the late wars, it must have been
obvious under what disadvantages, owing to the colours of their
dress, our soldiers had often to contend with the French, but
especially with the United States troops in skirmishing. The latter
were certainly, from having much practice, good marksmen; and
thickly wooded America was very favourable to their irregulars; for
our brilliant scarlet coats, white belts, and bright belt and cap-plates,
enabled the enemy to discover, whether in a wood, at the back of a
hedge, or wherever they were posted, our unlucky soldiers, who
were too apt to expose themselves, and many of them were in
consequence laid low; whereas the French, or wary Yankees, almost
entirely escaped; and that much owing to their being dressed in dark
colours, which enabled them easily to conceal themselves. But
officers who served in our Rifle brigade, and in that also experienced
corps, of which I saw so much on many occasions, the 5th battalion
of the 60th, could give the best information, and a correct opinion
upon this head; and I feel certain that they would join with me in
recommending that a change should be made in the dress of our
army, so as to make it more suitable for modern warfare, in which
light troops are so much employed. I must beg, at the same time, to
say, that I often regretted that these fine regiments were not armed
with superior muskets in place of rifles, for they are seldom to be
preferred to muskets, and never but when loaded with great care,
and this, in action, takes up too much time.
We every day hear of experiments and improvements in the
construction of fire-arms; and the country can surely afford to supply
our army with a superior musket, with a proper elevation, and a
percussion lock. The present old fashioned firelock, with which
nearly all our troops are still supplied, is very imperfect, and heavier
than it ought to be. But would it not be well to consider, whether the
new musket should not be considerably longer in the barrel and
smaller in the bore; and that the bayonet should be much reduced in
size; and I would also arm the soldiers, I have in view, with a sword,
of the shape and size used by the ancient Romans; for we may
depend upon it, that our brave, powerful men, would follow their
officers, sword in hand, into the midst of their enemies. The musket
could be then carried either in the left hand or slung upon the
soldier's shoulder, and the bayonet could be fixed to it if preferred. It
might be necessary to weigh well the consequences before we so
armed our impetuous soldiers, for it would be certain to lead to a
new era in war; and would expose troops so fighting, which must be
in a degree of loose order, to be charged by cavalry; yet the Romans
fought in that manner, and with great success, though equally liable
to be so attacked. Every thing would, however, depend upon so high
a state of discipline being established amongst the troops, as would
enable officers to keep them in hand, and at all times obedient when
commanded to resume their places; and our dragoons ought always
to be at hand, ready to support infantry so acting. Such views as
these are, I suppose, entertained by those officers who seem to be
so anxious to have broad sword and bayonet exercises, introduced. I
do not wish to enter farther into this discussion; yet I beg leave to
say, that, though I am certain our soldiers would have closed with
their enemies, yet, in all my practice, which was tolerably extensive, I
never saw two bodies of troops fairly charge each other with the
bayonet; for one side or other (and generally it was that attacked)
gave way. I have certainly seen a few instances of individuals,
French and British soldiers, actually attacking each other with the
bayonet; and at the battle of Roliça, I remember seeing a soldier of
the 29th regiment, and a fine-looking Frenchman, lying on the
ground close together, who had, judging from the positions in which
they lay, evidently killed each other with their bayonets; but such
occurrences were, I believe, very rare.
The introduction of the percussion lock into the army will necessarily
cause a change to be made in part of the musket exercise; but it will
simplify the motions and expedite the firing. I, however, hope, that
before any thing of this kind is decided upon, the following remarks
may be allowed to have due consideration.
The pouch might be differently constructed, and advantageously
converted into a magazine, to carry securely a certain quantity of
powder in bulk, in an air tight tin canister, with a screw stopper, to
insure its being, at all times, and in all situations, kept perfectly dry;
and this is a very essential point, as many cartridges are destroyed
or rendered unserviceable in the men's present pouches by rain, a
damp atmosphere, and even continued friction; and this is too often
only found out at the moment when they are required for service,
and when there is, perhaps, no opportunity of exchanging them; and
as this magazine ought at all times on service to be kept full of
powder, the officer when inspecting his company or detachment,
could easily ascertain if any of it had been made away with: indeed,
the stopper might be safely sealed over, or otherwise secured; and
thus the soldier could be made, without inconvenience, to carry such
a supply of ammunition as to render it unnecessary that recourse
should be so constantly had to that carried in reserve for the army.
The pouch should also be made to contain, besides the powder, a
sufficient supply of percussion caps, and a proportionate number of
balls, to the quantity of powder in the canister; and every ball should
be separately, thinly, yet sufficiently covered with a kind of stuff
similar to soft leather, so as to make it fit tightly when rammed down
into the barrel of the musket, and it would thus become a good
wadding over the powder. For what is called blank cartridge firing,
waddings of the common kind, and of the proper size, could be used.
The pouch thus contracted, would hold the soldier's reserve
ammunition, which would amount to a much greater number of
rounds than it contains according to the present plan. But to effect
what I have in view, every soldier should be supplied with a good
powder flask, with a proper measure to suit the musket, according to
the most improved method, and similar to that which Mr. John
Manton usually supplied along with his guns; having the measure
forming an angle to one side, so as, in case of explosion, if such a
thing could happen in loading, the right hand would not be much, if at
all, hurt. This flask could be made to contain a sufficient quantity of
powder, say for twenty rounds, at all times on service ready for use,
and which, for the reason I have already assigned, ought, when the
soldier is required to have ammunition in his possession, to be
likewise kept full; and should it at any time be suspected that the
powder in it had become damp, it could be easily aired by simply
dipping the flask in boiling water.
I regret that I am obliged to be particular in my descriptions of such
trifles; but this flask should, I conclude, be carried for convenience
on the left side or breast, and secured from falling when the soldier is
in movement, by a slight chain attached to the belt, to which the flask
might also be steadily fixed by some simple contrivance; and to
render this the more easily done, it ought to be rather flat in shape,
and not larger than to contain the quantity of powder I have
mentioned; and twenty rounds are quite as many as can be wanted
at reviews or field days. In action, if these twenty rounds are
expended, I need scarcely observe, that if no other reserve powder
be at hand, the flask could be replenished instantly from the
magazine; but under an apprehension that ammunition might be
made away with, the quantity in bulk should be touched as seldom
as possible, and if any of it be used, it ought to be immediately
replaced. A small pocket might be made in the right side of the
soldier's coat, which should be only sufficiently large to contain a
number of covered balls in proportion to the quantity of powder in the
flask; and a flap should button over this pocket to prevent the balls
from falling out. Each soldier would likewise require to be equipped
with one of those brass cases for holding percussion caps, which, by
a spring inside, forces each cap out in succession as it is wanted.
Those I use contain thirty caps. This case should also be attached to
the belt, but upon the right side.
The buck shot, I before mentioned, can easily be made up so as to
serve for wadding, in place of the covered ball; and a sentry upon his
post, especially at night, in many situations, would have more
confidence with his piece so loaded, than if he had only a single ball
in it. A better method than that which I have ventured to propose,
may very likely be pointed out; but whatever it may be, the admitting
of the knapsack being carried somewhat lower and easier to the
soldier, ought to be kept in view; and he should not be obliged, as at
present, to take cartridges with so much inconvenience out of his
pouch every time he loads his musket; and the new exercise
introduced on account of the percussion lock, must of course be
made to suit the alterations.
Should the soldier be supplied with a well-constructed musket with a
percussion lock—and if he be required to use a muzzle stopper, a
charge though a day or two in the barrel, will go off almost as well as
if just loaded, and this too in any kind of weather. Our commanding
officers when going into action, or rather on supposing that they
were about to do so, in general made the soldiers prime and load too
soon, for this, I may say, is the business of a moment; and how often
after the regiments had loaded, have they never had an opportunity
of firing a shot the whole day. At night probably the soldiers
bivouacked, and it rained heavily, so that in the morning not a
firelock, if it had been attempted, would have gone off. Darkness had
prevented it from being done the night before, and when the charge
had next morning to be drawn, it was found to be a very difficult job,
when the ball was held tight by wet paper. And then the barrel
required to be well washed out, which took more time than could be
allowed for the purpose, and consequently it was badly done. I need,
therefore, now scarcely observe, that the percussion lock, in a great
measure, obviates, by a very little attention, such serious
inconveniences and defects.
It may very likely be deemed great presumption for me to propose so
many changes; yet, having spoken of an alteration in the uniform of
the regiments, I shall now venture to mention what has been
suggested to me as likely to be a great improvement; but I do not by
any means pretend to say that nothing superior could be thought of
or invented. But if people take the liberty of finding fault with fashions
or systems, whether old or new, it is but fair that they should be
required to point out remedies or improvements.
Suppose that the uniform of the regular infantry was nearly
assimilated to that of our Rifle Brigade (with Her Majesty's Guards I
don't venture to interfere). It is generally allowed, that the dress of
both officers and men of these corps is soldier-like, handsome, and
far better adapted for service than that now worn by the rest of our
army. But I am most anxious that the soldier's coat should be made
for comfort as well as for appearance; and I should, therefore,
greatly prefer that it was made in the shape of what is usually termed
a frock, but to have a stand up collar, and to come down nearly to
the knee. Both coat and trousers could, at a very trifling additional
expense, be made water-proof. But soldiers ought never again to be
overloaded on service with blankets, and let the reader only imagine
their being obliged, as was often the case, to carry them when wet.
But to make up for the blanket, they should be furnished with a large
sized water-proof cloth great coat; in these they could sleep
sufficiently warm and secure from any damp that might rise from the
ground, and which in campaigning is of such importance towards
preservation of health. The country would also be saved expense if
this plan were adopted, by not being obliged to provide and convey
bulky blankets to the points where they were to be delivered out to
the troops; and these water-proof great coats being of a very durable
material, would last much longer than the old fashioned ones.
Many of the absurdities which once existed in the dress of our
infantry officers and soldiers; such as the powdered heads and long
pigtails, and white pipe-clayed tight buckskin breeches, and large
jack-boots of the former; and the soaped hair with finely feathered
sidelocks, as they were termed, and long highly polished leather
queues, tight white cloth breeches, and long tight gaiters of the latter,
have long been done away with; and why not go a step farther, and
in the way hinted at, in order to secure to our infantry great and
decided advantages. Many may remember the strange figures,
which most of our soldiers cut in Paris after the battle of Waterloo, in
their dirty red coats, and ugly shaped caps; the former much stained,
and the latter become brown and disfigured by exposure to rain and
weather; the consequence was, that our army made, I do not
hesitate to say, the worst appearance of all those assembled in and
around that capital.
I do not intend in this work to make many remarks upon our cavalry,
but I must say, that I hope yet to see some of our lights made
heavier, and mounted on powerful yet sufficiently active horses. I
confess I am not one of those who admire what are called hussars,
&c., because I know how to value our heavy cavalry, and am
therefore induced to draw a comparison between the two; and I
boldly assert, that no cavalry in the world can stand before our
splendid heavy dragoons and their noble steeds. One regiment—and
I am enabled to judge from what I saw of them upon several
occasions—would with ease cut their way through all the Cossacks
of the Don, or any such Lights, which are seldom of any other use
but to follow up a beaten enemy; and, I must say, that it has often
surprised me, how we could think of copying the inefficient cavalry of
any nation. Sir Thomas Picton, but he was an infantry officer, was
also no great admirer of our light cavalry, and some of them may,
perhaps, remember an opinion he publicly expressed of their
efficiency at Roncesvalles, when he, in his emphatic way, and, I must
admit, not very politely, drew a comparison between them and the
dragoons of the German Legion, who were not only excellent and
experienced, but always effective. We were all greatly attached to
the German dragoons, and for nothing more, than for their literally
making companions, or playfellows, of their fine English horses,
which they always thought of, with respect to care and food, before
they did of themselves.
At the opening of one of the campaigns, a body of these German
dragoons, so much and deservedly admired by Picton, which had
been attached to the third division during most of the previous one,
returned to us from their cantonments, when we were again close up
to the enemy, and hourly expecting to be engaged; officers, non-
commissioned officers, and soldiers, turned out in a body to
welcome their old friends, who passed through the camp to where
they were to be stationed for the night, amidst the cheering and
congratulations of the fighting division—and Picton's division knew
well who were good soldiers. In making these remarks, I by no
means presume to say any thing against our light cavalry, but I must
protest against a system of mounting brave men upon horses unable
to carry them through their work on the day of trial, and in this
respect foolishly aping foreigners, who would give the world for such
horses as we possess; and who are doing all they can to improve
their breeds in order to be able to meet us at a future period. The
plan, however, which I have suggested for promotion in the army,
would wonderfully change matters in our cavalry regiments, into
which many officers would no longer go merely for the day, and for
amusement, but into a profession to which they were to belong for
life. But mentioning these German dragoons, reminds me of a
welcome Sir Thomas Picton himself met with on his return to the 3d
division in the South of France, after an absence occasioned by
severe illness, and to which the following letters allude.
"Valley of Bastau, August 27, 1813.

"Dear Sir,
"It has long been the wish of the officers of the three brigades, which
we have had the honour to command under you in the 3d division,
as also of the divisional staff, to have an opportunity of offering you
an ostensible mark of their high respect, gratitude, and esteem,
which we so sincerely feel in our hearts.
"Every objection seems now removed, in point of time and
otherwise, when on the recurrence of severe illness, which has in
four successive seasons assailed you; you at present only await a
sufficient degree of convalescence, to admit of your trying change of
climate, with but too little prospect, we lament to think, of your
returning to your command in this country.
"Services such as yours, cannot but have been acknowledged
before this, by the offering of one or more swords from your attached
military brethren, or a grateful country. We therefore, for ourselves,
and those who have desired us to represent them, request you will
do us the honour to accept of a piece of plate with a short inscription,
commemorative of the circumstance, and of the corps which
composed the 3d division under your command in the Peninsula.
"With most sincere wishes for your early convalescence, followed by
your confirmed good heath, on leaving a climate that has proved so
unfriendly to you, we have the honour to subscribe ourselves,
"Dear Sir,
"Your ever faithful Servants,
(Signed,) "C. Colville,
Thomas Brisbane,
M. Power.
"For the Staff of }
the Division, } F. Stovin, A.A. Gr.
"Lt.-Gen. Sir Tho. Picton, K.B.
&c. &c. &c."
"London, 18th Sept. 1813.

"My Dear General,

"In the extreme weak state to which I was reduced previous to my
leaving the Peninsula, my feelings were too powerful for my spirits,
and it was not possible for me adequately to answer the kind letter of
the general officers commanding brigades in the 3d division, which
you did me the honour of forwarding to me from the Valley of Bastau,
on the 29th of August last.
"I cannot but highly value the testimony of gentlemen, to whose
talents, zealous co-operation, and gallantry on every occasion, I feel
myself indebted for the honours that have been conferred upon me,
and for the degree of reputation to which I have risen in the service;
and I shall receive any memento of their esteem and regard with
corresponding sentiments and feelings of the heart.
"The period of my life to which I shall always recur with the greatest
satisfaction, is that which was passed at the head of the 3d division,
when I always experienced such a spirit of unanimity and heroism,
as never once failed of success in any of the difficult enterprises we
were employed upon. Though I may never again have the honour of
commanding so distinguished a corps, I shall ever feel myself
identified with the 3d division in all its operations, and shall take as
strong an interest in its success as I ever did, whilst I had the honour
of presiding at its head.
"Accept my many acknowledgments for your kind attention, and of
my sincere and constant wishes for your success and prosperity on
all occasions.
"Your devoted and faithful,
"Humble Servant,
(Signed,) "Thomas Picton, Lt.-Gen.
"To the Hon. Major-General Colville,
Major-General Brisbane,
Major-General Power,
Lt.-Colonel Stovin, &c."
The day upon which Sir Thomas Picton unexpectedly rejoined his
division, the 45th regiment was lying down at the head of Sir Thomas
Brisbane's brigade, which was concealed behind a height, ready for
an intended attack. The enemy were posted at a bridge on the right
bank of a brook, and occupying, advantageously, a few houses close
to it. Our sentinels and theirs were within ten yards of each other,
when to this corps delight, which had so long served under him, up
rode their favourite chief: in an instant, and under strong and general
impulse of feeling, which could not be suppressed, they to a man
stood up, and gave him three hearty cheers, which were immediately
responded to by the 74th and 88th regiments; thus discovering
where they were to the French. "Well 45th, you have let the enemy
hear you, you may now, if you please, let them feel you," was
Picton's smiling reply; and at the same instant he ordered the attack,
which I need scarcely say was completely successful.
I hope I may be excused for giving here another trifling anecdote. I
remember well Colonel Guard, whose adjutant I was at the time,
being most anxious that the 45th regiment, which he for some years
commanded, should be made Light Infantry, and also to have had
them styled, "The Sherwood Foresters." He, however, for what
reason I know not, failed in the objects he had in view. Not long after,
the 45th was brigaded in England for exercise with the 87th and 88th
regiments. Colonel Guard had constantly, and much to his
annoyance, and more particularly on account of his recent failure,
heard these corps called to attention by their appropriate local
designations, in place of their numbers; but one day he could stand it
no longer, and when Colonels Butler and Duff loudly and proudly
exclaimed, "Prince's Irish," and "Connaught Rangers,"—he in a very
shrill voice, called out at the same instant, "Nottingham Hosiers,"
attention. His brother chiefs, who seemingly had not heard, or
understood what he had said, looked all astonishment, when the
whole brigade burst into an irrepressible, and unmilitary fit of
laughter. I fear that in this instance, like old soldiers in general, I
have been led away by the love of telling my story, and must
therefore apologize for the liberty I have taken with the reader; yet, if
I am not mistaken, I think I have shown, that a particular designation,
however acquired, is considered by many, as of more importance to
a corps, than a mere number; I therefore look forward to the day, if
my views are adopted, when a district will have just cause to be
proud of its regiment; and to a regiment never hearing it named but
with a feeling of revived affection, and a determination, that their
home shall never be disgraced by any act of theirs.
 CHAP. IV.
Other causes besides those arising from the description of men
generally enlisted into our army, tended greatly to keep soldiers what
they were—that is to say, difficult to manage, and always ready to
avail themselves of any opportunity of getting away from under the
eyes of their officers, with the view of indulging in irregularities
whenever it was possible to do so; as, I trust, I shall be able
hereafter to point out. I cannot, however, undertake to say, what may
be the custom in the present day; but a soldier, in former times,
could not commit a greater offence than to presume to think or act
for himself; and I remain still in doubt, when, or at what rank, an
officer was supposed to be capable or had a right to think. And as for
education, too many entertained the strange notion, that beyond
reading and writing, which were allowed to be useful to non-
commissioned officers, the less soldiers knew of such matters the
better. After this need it have surprised any one, that intelligence of
any kind was but rarely to be met with in the ranks of a British army;
and that it was constantly found in those of the French, into which
the conscription necessarily introduced it; and when evinced, it was
sure to meet a due reward.
I remember, years ago, being visited by a brother-adjutant. As he
entered my barrack-room, a young soldier placed a book upon the
table and retired; which my visitor, a few minutes after, took up, and
being surprised at what it indicated as its contents, he asked me, in
seeming astonishment, what a private soldier could have to say to
such a work? I replied carelessly, that the soldier who had just left
the room, was a young man of considerable ability and great
promise; and that I wished him to read useful books; so as to be fit,
at a future period, for any station he might attain. He looked at me
again, and seemed by no means satisfied by what I had said, nor
with the book, and thus in a very friendly way addressed me:—"You
are a very young man, the youngest I ever saw made an adjutant—I
have myself risen from the ranks, and have consequently had much
experience amongst soldiers; and know them well. You may
therefore take my word for it, that books containing such information,
only tend to make soldiers question the wisdom of their officers; and
to fit them for being ringleaders in any discontent, or even mutinous
conduct in their companies: and it also causes them to be disliked by
the non-commissioned officers who have to teach them their duties,
and especially the drill-serjeants, who are always jealous of those
who are likely to become rivals." This certainly surprised me as
coming from my visitor, but he had been for many years an adjutant,
and it has often been remarked, that no officers are so severe, or
have so little consideration for the feelings of soldiers as those who
have risen from the ranks. With this as a kind of text, and also
requesting that the reader will bear in mind what was shown at the
commencement of this work, by excellent authorities, to be the
character of our soldiers in general, I shall now proceed with my
remarks, some of which may probably be thought trifling.
The French plan of carrying the knapsack, though not so smart
looking, is in the opinion of many, superior to that adopted in our
army; as it has much more the ease and comfort of the soldier upon
a march in view. Our present mode, which binds the soldier so tightly
within the slings and straps of the knapsack, as almost to prevent the
free circulation of the blood, is certainly far from judicious, but we
have been long accustomed to it, and like it on account of
appearance. But in olden times, we had many ways of trying the
tempers and dispositions of our soldiers; such as making them,
though kept at drill, or at exercise in the field the greater part of the
day, to burnish the barrels of their firelocks, to their serious injury, till
they were made to shine like silver, and to polish their pouches, and
oddly shaped caps, so as to render looking-glasses quite
unnecessary. How often have I, when a zealous and enthusiastic
adjutant, cracked a pouch with the head of my cane, when it was not
bright enough to please my practised eye, with the kind intention of
affording the owner a pleasant week's occupation to get it again into
order. And how often have I, on my well-practised horse, placed
camp colours as points of movement, till the whole "Eighteen
Manœuvres" were gone through; many of them, if the commanding
officer was dissatisfied, with the regiment's day's performance, two
or three times over; having previously had the delight of marching
past repeatedly, in quick and slow time, to please the spectators, or
because the soldiers did not make the ground sufficiently resound by
the firmness of their steps; thus altogether agreeably occupying from
five to six hours of the officers and soldiers time, with the prospect
before them of a long evening parade, or inspection, because they
had not been so steady under arms as they ought to have been
during the morning's occupations.
I sincerely hope we shall never again hear of such things being
practised in a British army; and no commanding officer should be
allowed to keep his regiment longer than an hour and a half, or two
hours at a time under arms, which will be found quite sufficient, if
well occupied, for every useful purpose of instruction; especially as
at almost every parade, a battalion ought to be made to perform a
movement or two before it is dismissed. I however look upon it to be
of the first importance, that a soldier should be accustomed to
consider his knapsack and accoutrements, I may say, as parts of
himself, and that he should be so habituated to them, that whether
marching or not, he could perceive little or no difference; and to
effect this, he should never appear under arms without his knapsack;
but I hope, if this plan be enforced, as it ought to be, to hear of an
improvement being made in the mode of carrying them.
Our soldiers were greatly overloaded, especially on service, when
they had to carry, besides their arms, accoutrements and
ammunition, their canteens, haversacks, and well-filled knapsacks,
their great coats, and often wet and consequently very heavy
blankets, and sometimes in addition two or three days bread, and
generally ten extra rounds of ball cartridges. Overloading soldiers in
this manner was down right madness, especially if we had
considered the description of men we too often had to deal with; and
this will never answer in the more rapid modes of carrying on war, to
which we must hereafter look forward.
I saw it not along ago announced in a daily paper, that the recruiting
of the army had been very successful, 13,000 men having been
raised for the line, and had joined their corps in the course of 1838.
Of that number, more than 4000 were passed in the London district,
and this was exclusive of men raised for the East India Company's
service. By this it would appear, that London alone furnishes about a
third of the men raised to fill up casualties in Her Majesty's
regiments.
It is very likely that the editor of the paper, who seemed so pleased
at being able to afford us this intelligence, is a zealous advocate for
doing away with flogging in the army; but if such be the description of
men of which it is chiefly composed, any person of common sense
must see that it is impossible to do so, for what are these men in
general but the vitiated and debilitated part of our population.
I have no doubt but it is very desirable that the country should get rid
of such subjects, who are mostly unfit for any military purpose
whatever; but why, at a great expense, burden the army with them?
Would it not be much better to allow the worthy Yankees to have
many of them at once, as emigrants or soldiers; and if sufficient
authority were given to our Police Magistrates, they could very soon,
by only threatening such fellows, with what a certain Colonel once
upon a time practised in Ireland with so much success, make
volunteers in plenty, and thus save our sympathizing friends the
trouble and expence of enticing them to desert from their corps in the
Canadas. I am well acquainted with their proceedings in this way,
and can therefore speak from experience, having been for some
time employed upon the staff of the army stationed in that part of the
world. I certainly had at that time no trifling task assigned me to
make arrangements, so as to have a good look-out kept all along the
extensive frontier of the lower Province, to prevent desertions, to
which our soldiers were much addicted, and encouraged by
promises of both money and land, but which were seldom intended
to be fulfilled; indeed, most of those who got off had nothing else left
for it, in order to keep themselves from starving, but to become once
more soldiers, and to fight against their old comrades.
It was supposed by some officers, that shooting a number of them (I
saw six shot in one day at Chambly), who were caught in attempting
to cross the boundary line, would have put a stop to this disgrace to
our army, but it had no effect whatever; indeed nothing we could
devise produced any change in this respect, until it was made the
duty of commanding officers to give me immediate information
whenever a man was missed from his corps. Small detachments of
dragoons were posted at certain points to convey to me at St. Johns
the necessary intelligence. Upon receiving it, the out-posts were
instantly informed of the circumstance. At the same time parties of
Indian warriors were sent out in all directions in search of him, and a
reward was held out to them for bringing him in. These
arrangements being made known to the several corps, and the
deceptions of our kind neighbours being pointed out to them, a
complete stop was thus put for the time to desertions. But are men
who would so readily desert, those Great Britain should have in her
armies? I ought here however to mention, to the honour of my old
friends, the 88th, or Connaught Rangers, that they were exempted,
by Sir Thomas Brisbane, from witnessing executions for this crime,
as not a man of that corps had deserted to the United States.
In order to show what little effect executing men for desertion had
upon others, I shall take the liberty of mentioning what took place
upon one occasion at St. Johns. My General being absent at
Montreal, as Brigade-Major attached to the troops, most of the
melancholy duty of superintending such executions fell to my share.
A private of De Meuron's regiment was at this time to be shot. The
troops were formed in three sides of a square, at the other side
towards the forest the grave was dug, and the coffin for the criminal
to kneel upon, was placed, as usual upon such occasions, beside it.
The Provost, with the firing party escorting the prisoner, and with the
band of the regiment at their head playing the Dead march, entered
the square—when, to my surprise, there proudly marched the
prisoner—coolly smoking a cigar. Seeing at once the bad effects
likely to result from such evident contempt of death, painful as it was
to me, I called the Provost, and ordered him to take away the cigar
from him. On approaching the grave, the prisoner walked quietly, but
steadily forward, looked into it, and turning round to me, said, in
French, "it will do." But still more to my surprise, yet with equal
calmness, he walked up to his coffin, and before I was aware of what
he was about, with his middle finger and thumb he measured its
length, and turning round again to me, he said, in French, which his
corps generally spoke, "it will do also." This was so far beyond any
thing I had ever before witnessed, that I found it necessary to direct
the Provost to proceed with the execution as quickly as possible; he
therefore went up to the prisoner with a handkerchief, and, as is
customary, offered to bind up his eyes. He however, pushed the
Provost aside, exclaiming, in French, "I am a brave soldier, and have
often looked death in the face, and shall not shrink from it now." The
Provost then desired him, or rather made signs to him, to kneel upon
his coffin, but he replied, "I prefer standing, and shall do so firmly."
"Vive L'Empereur, vive Napoleon," were his last words. The party
fired, and in an instant he ceased to exist.
He was a Frenchman, and had been a prisoner of war for a
considerable time in England, but had been very improperly allowed
to enlist into De Meuron's regiment; which he had, no doubt, entered
with the intention of deserting the first opportunity which should
present itself.
I have yet to mention our North American possessions; but it would
appear, that it is now in contemplation, to employ corps of veterans
upon the Canadian and our other North American frontiers. It is,
however, evident that whoever can have suggested such a scheme,
must have altogether overlooked, or be ignorant of the rigorous
nature of a Canadian winter, and must likewise have forgotten, that
almost all our veterans have spent a great portion of their lives in
tropical climates, which cannot be supposed to have prepared their
constitutions to bear up against such cold as is quite unknown in any
part of Great Britain, as indicated by registers of the thermometer
kept during a residence there; where it ranges from zero to 10, 20
and even 35 degrees below it; and should a strong wind prevail
along with such cold, any one exposed to it is very likely to be frost-
bitten. It may also be supposed, that the proposers of such a plan,
are not aware of its being often necessary during winter in Canada,
to have sentries relieved, or at least visited every half hour; for if they
be unfortunately overcome by the severity of the cold, and in
consequence fall asleep, it is certain death. Are worn-out men, many
of them already martyrs to rheumatism, or must soon become so, fit
for service in such a country, and to which they may be sent from
their homes, probably reckoned upon as permanent, contrary
perhaps to their wishes, and very likely only to suit the economical
notions of penny-wise theorist and grumblers, who grudge old
soldiers and sailors, even the pittance their services entitle them to,
whilst they would handsomely reward the author of a mischievous
pamphlet? But are these poor veterans, I again ask, fit to guard such
an extensive frontier, constantly menaced by hardy and restless
men, inured to a North American climate?
I have no doubt but that prejudiced men, and such as are always
ready to cavil at any change proposed, be it good or bad, will at first
be inclined to look upon what I have suggested for keeping up our
army, as not only a wild and visionary, but also as an impracticable
scheme; yet all I request is a full and fair consideration of what I
have said and brought forward; and it ought now, I think, to be
obvious, that our regiments must be composed of a superior
description of men, if the country is to be served as it ought to be in
our future wars, as will, I trust, more fully appear as I proceed.
I shall now beg to remind officers, in general, of the numbers of
soldiers who arrived in Portugal and Spain, who went into hospitals
before we had many weeks carried on military operations in those
countries, many of whom, as might have been expected from their
early debilitating habits, never rejoined their regiments; and
throughout the war when fresh battalions arrived from England,
nearly the same thing invariably occurred, and with detachments of
recruits for corps already in the field, it was still worse, so much so,
that we could never calculate upon one-third of the new comers
remaining fit for duty with their regiments, even for a short time after
their first arrival; some of them, however, as they became more
habituated to campaigning, turned out to be good soldiers. Now
many of these were men who had been probably raised, according
to our present system of recruiting, in London, or in our
manufacturing districts, and thus the country was put to an
enormous but useless expense.
The soldiers we could chiefly depend upon, were those who
originally belonged to the corps, or had come to us from many of the
militia regiments, and particularly those who had been brought up to
early habits of labour in our agricultural districts. I am aware that
many of the men we got as volunteers from the militia, had been
called out from our manufacturing population, but their habits and
health had been much improved by being obliged to relinquish
debilitating practices, by good feeding, and regular military exercises
for a length of time before we got them. A long peace has probably
brought into our corps a more robust description of men, than we
had often to make the best we could of during the late wars, and
many of whom were frequently most wretched creatures, so much
so, that it was unfair to expect that British officers, however zealous
they might be, could always be successful in battle against the finest
men of France, which the conscription brought into the French ranks;
but if an immediate increase of the army, to any considerable extent,
should become requisite, and if the present system of recruiting is to
be still pursued, the same generally unprofitable and expensive
materials must be resorted to, for augmenting or completing the
respective establishments of our old, and also of any new corps
which it might be necessary to form, and many of whom must be
again found to sink under the fatigues and hardships of war, and the
weight of their knapsacks. I must, however, declare that none of the
inhabitants of Great Britain and Ireland are deficient in courage. But
let us reflect upon the state into which Sir John Moore's army (which
almost set him distracted) had got in the retreat to Corunna. Almost
all the corps had become completely disorganized in every respect,
and had nearly lost the appearance of regular troops. An opportunity
of fighting presented itself, and in a moment steady and well
disciplined British battalions appeared in the field. Such were the
strange beings British officers had to manage as well as they could.
It would appear that a new plan is about to be adopted for re-
organizing and training the militia, and that the men are in future to
be raised at a small bounty to serve for a period of five years; and
that the whole are to be formed into battalions, of one thousand
strong each. The training to take place annually, in portions of two
companies at a time, for 28 days, under the adjutant, or permanent
staff; which in future is to consist of an adjutant, a serjeant-major,
eleven serjeants, one drum-major, and five drummers: one Serjeant
to do the duty of quarter-master-serjeant; and it is intended to allow a
part of the men to volunteer annually for the line.
This appears to me an exceedingly bad plan. In the first place, the
corps of militia must hereafter be composed of a very inferior
description of men to what they were of old; and flogging must, as a
matter of course, be persevered in; but why in these times are the
militia to be embodied and badly trained at a considerable and
unnecessary expense to the country; for it is quite time enough to
think of calling out this force when the country may be threatened by
an enemy with invasion; for with the fine regular army I have in view,
the tranquillity of the United Kingdom can be completely secured;
and such militia corps, as those that seem to be in contemplation,
must be the very worst description of troops which could possibly be
employed in case of commotions. I must sincerely hope that the old
and constitutional mode of calling out the good and true men of the
nation to serve in the militia regiments will never be abandoned, and
I yet trust to seeing it extended, as I have proposed, to the Guards
and regular army. Surely I have shewn plainly enough the evils of
our present recruiting system to dissipate the notion of extending it to
the militia. I have long entertained a dislike to the plan of enlistment,
unless every possible inquiry were made into the characters of the
men who offered themselves as recruits; and I endeavoured to act in
this manner some years ago, when commanding a depot at
Glasgow. I had an old friend in that city, who had been one of its
magistrates, and could look back to the period when only herring
boats could come up to the Broomilaw, and who knew every body. I
never took a recruit without the approbation of my friend the Bailie;
but he rejected so many, who were instantly taken by other depots,
of which there were several at the time in Scotland, that I was at last
called upon to say why I did not get on quicker with the enlistment of
men for the regiment. I gave as my reason, that I was anxious to
take only men who could prove that they were respectable in
character; but this was not deemed satisfactory, and I had no longer
any thing for it but to take such as presented themselves; and then I
certainly got on fast enough with recruiting.
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