Predictive Analytics Using Machine Learning
Predictive Analytics Using Machine Learning
SPEAKER PROFILE
DAWERA TAHER
▪ Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering, Institut Sains dan Teknologi
Nasional
▪ Worked at PT. Trakindo Utama, PT. Kuehne+Nagel Indonesia and The Lean Six
Sigma Company Indonesia
▪ Certified Lean Six Sigma International Trainer by The Lean Six Sigma Company
- Netherlands
▪ Lean Six Sigma Trainer, Kuehne+Nagel Indonesia
▪ Lean Six Sigma Trainer, Caterpillar Asia Pacific
▪ Certified Six Sigma DMAIC Master Black Belt by Caterpillar University
▪ Certified Caterpillar Production System (CPS) Black Belt by Caterpillar Inc.
▪ Lean Six Sigma Trainer, PT Trakindo Utama
▪ Certified Six Sigma DMAIC Black Belt by Caterpillar University
▪ Certified ISO 9001: 2015 Auditor by SGS United Kingdom Ltd.
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Agenda
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Agenda
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BRAND VALUE
International Certified Training Institute
+25.000
Professionals
The training materials from The Lean Six Sigma
Company have been certified to ISO 18404 and ISO +4.000
13053 standards. This means that the quality of Businesses
knowledge, skills, and competencies taught during our
+25
training are all in line with Lean Six Sigma competencies Countries
and methods with international standards.
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Languages
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21001
Universities
Since 2002
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IASSC
CSSC ISO ASQ IQF
(International
Accreditation Body (Council for Six Sigma (International Organization (American Society for (International Quality
Association for Six Sigma
Certification) for Standardization) Quality) Federation)
Certification)
Accreditation program
No Yes Yes Yes Yes
for providers
Training program
Individual knowledge and Individual knowledge Individual knowledge Individual knowledge and
adherence to standards and
Assessment Criteria competency in Lean Six and competency in Lean and competency in Lean competency in Lean Six
best practices. Knowledge
Sigma Six Sigma Six Sigma Sigma
and skills.
Practical experience Practical experience Practical project Practical experience Practical experience
Practical Assignment recommended but not recommended but not requirement for ISO 18404 required for select required for select
mandatory mandatory accreditation certifications certifications
GLOBAL PRESENCE
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ONE-STOP-SHOP SERVICES
Training
Coaching Workshop
The Lean Six Sigma
Company Indonesia
Certification Consultancy
1. Knowledge Transferred
▪ How to implement LSS, run projects, structure, and culture of LSS.
3. Independence Standard
▪ Same training and service worldwide (ISO certified)
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GLOBAL CLIENTS
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INDONESIA CLIENTS
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A B C D E
Problem Process Voice of goal and
Team
statement and the business
Kickoff
scope customer case
Toll gate
Problem statement
1 Is the problem clearly defined?
Team
5 Are the team members(and their superiors) defined and informed?
6 Has the kickoff been organised?
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RIA OF “ O K” XA AND “R A ” XA
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Agenda
4 Q&A
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“I f f 21
Century, and analytics is the
u g .”
Peter Sondergaard
SVP and Global Head of Research at Gartner, Inc.
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Lean
Six Sigma
▪ Stakeholders ▪ EBITDA
Satisfaction 1. Customer
Delight 3.Borderless
Teamwork
2.Business
Improve ▪ Net Profit
▪ EVA
Experience
Customer Collaboration Profitability
Process
Eliminating
& # of Defect
Lean
Reducing
Variation
Quality
Waste
Speed
Six Sigma
4. Data
Data & Facts
Driven Culture
Source: What is Lean Six Sigma: Michael George, Dave Rowlands, Bill Kastle, McGraw-Hill 2004 31
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▪ Increase revenue
▪ Optimize costs
▪ Mitigate risks
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Descriptive Analytics
▪ What happened?
▪ Summary statistics (e.g. means, ranges)
Diagnostic Analytics
▪ Why it happened?
▪ Statistical methods (e.g. correlation)
Predictive Analytics
▪ What will happen?
▪ More statistical methods (e.g. regression)
Prescriptive Analytics
▪ What action to take?
▪ More statistical methods (e.g. optimization)
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Excellent
Business
Processes
Business
Performance
Analytics
Technology
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Explain
More
Predictive
Value
FUTURE
Diagnostic
Explain
Descriptive
Descriptive
PAST
PAST
Less
Less
Complexity More
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Most organizations
More
almost exclusively
rely on basic tools
BUSINESS and dashboards
without any real
Difficulty Level
INTELLIGENCE
analysis.
Less
Less
Value More
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Agenda
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Predictive Analytics looks for patterns in data and projects them forward to help
businesses mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities
Temperature
Speed Driven
Rubber compound PREDICTED
TIRE LIFE
Tread Depth Predictive
Age
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future outcomes.
Based on the data collected, a model can predict whether
or not a prospect is likely to become a customer, a process
will deliver a desired result, or what the outcome might be.
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Continuous Discrete
aka Variable data aka Countable / Categories / Attributes data
Quantitative (Deals with Numbers) Qualitative (Deals with Descriptions)
Measurement
Quantitative (Measure) Quantitative (Count) Ordinal (Ordered) Nominal (Un-ordered) Binary (Dichotomous)
Time of day Hours, minutes, seconds N/A 1, 2, 3, etc. N/A a.m./p.m.
Date Month, date, year N/A Jan., Feb., Mar., etc. N/A Before/after
Cycle time Hours, minutes, seconds, month, date, year N/A 10, 20, 30, etc. N/A Before/after
Speed Miles per hour/centimeters per second N/A 10, 20, 30, etc. N/A Fast/slow
Brightness Lumens N/A Light, medium, dark N/A On/off
Temperature Degrees C or F N/A 10, 20, 30, etc. N/A Hot/cold
<Count data> Number of things (hospital beds) Number of beds 10, 20, 30, etc. N/A Large/small hospital
Test scores Percent, number correct Number of students F, D, C, B, A N/A Pass/Fail
Defects N/A Number of cracks N/A N/A Good/bad
Defects N/A N/A N/A Cracked, burned, missing Good/bad
Color N/A N/A N/A Red, blue, green, yellow N/A
Location N/A N/A N/A Site A, site B, site C Domestic/international
Groups N/A N/A N/A HR, legal, IT, engineering Exempt/nonexempt
Anything Percent N/A 10, 20, 30, etc. N/A Above/below
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T-test
Correlation
ANOVA
Regression
DOE
Y
Discrete
Logistic
Chi-Square
Regression
Continuous Discrete
X
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v A y ’ g
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MARS stands for Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines
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Parametric Non-Parametric
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v A y ’ g
▪ Classical
▪ Multiple Linear Regression
Continuous
▪ MARS® Regression
▪ Classical
▪ Binary Logistic Regression
Categorical
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• FUR: y/n
• WHISKERS: y/n
• TAIL: y/n
• LIFE_SPAN: Years
• EARS: pointy, flat, folded
Want to predict the
• BEHAVIOR: active, passive, binary response
using the collected
playful, lethargic features!
• CAN_BARK: y/n
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Jerome Friedman Leo Breiman Richard Olshen Charles Stone Dan Steinberg
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No Lifespan Yes
longer than 10
years?
No Yes No Yes
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Classification Example:
Predicting Machine Failure (Wind Turbines)
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Findings
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v A y ’ g
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MARS stands for Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines
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Regression Example:
Solar Panel Output
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v A y ’ g
▪ Classical
▪ Multiple Linear Regression
Continuous
▪ MARS® Regression
▪ Classical
▪ Binary Logistic Regression
Categorical
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Compare Algorithms
(R- squared)
OLS: 78%
CART: 82%
MARS (additive): 82%
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v A y ’ g
▪ Classical
▪ Multiple Linear Regression
Continuous
▪ MARS® Regression
▪ Classical
▪ Binary Logistic Regression
Categorical
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PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
Leverage the power of Predictive
Analytics with Minitab
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@ 2023 Minitab, LLC
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v A y ’ g
▪ Classical
▪ Multiple Linear Regression
Continuous
▪ MARS® Regression
▪ Classical
▪ Binary Logistic Regression
Categorical
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Thank you.
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