Required Report: Required - Public Distribution Date: March 20, 2024

Report Number: CH2024-0042

Report Name: Oilseeds and Products Annual

Country: China - People's Republic of

Post: Beijing

Report Category: Oilseeds and Products

Prepared By: FAS China Staff

Approved By: Adam Branson

Report Highlights:

Soybean imports for marketing year (MY) 24/25 are forecast to reach 103 million metric tons (MMT).
Increased soybean meal (SBM) inclusion rates due to competitive prices, stable demand in the poultry
sector, and growing demand in aquaculture is expected to offset weaker demand in the swine sector due
to forecast declining production in MY 23/24 and MY 24/25. Lower domestic prices, high carry-in from
MY 23/24 production, and comparatively better margins for corn are expected to lower soybean planted
area and production in MY 24/25. Post has revised imports and crush data for MY 22/23 to reflect
historical adjustments made in the March 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report. MY 23/24 and MY 24/25 imports and crush are revised based on evaluation of major
exporters’ shipments to China versus General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of
China (GACC) reported imports and in-country data sources.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY
STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY
Executive Summary

Soybean imports for MY 24/25 are forecast to reach 103 MMT, unchanged from estimates for
MY 23/24. Post has revised MY 22/23 imports and current and out-year import forecasts to
reflect historical adjustments made in the March 2024 WASDE report. Revisions to imports are
based on evaluation of major exporters’ shipments to China versus GACC reported imports.

Increased SBM feed inclusion due to price advantages, stable demand in the poultry sector, and
growing demand in aquaculture is expected to offset weaker demand in the swine sector due to
forecast declining production in MY 23/24 and MY 24/25.

Soybean crush volume is forecast at 98 MMT in MY 24/25, compared to an estimated 97 MMT

in MY 23/24. Post has revised MY 22/23 crush to reflect historical adjustments made in the
March WASDE report. Revisions to crush are based on in-country data sources. Total MY 24/25
protein meal feed use is forecast to increase 1 percent year-on-year to 101.6 MMT.

Vegetable oil imports are forecast to reach 10.8 MMT in MY 24/25 on continued growth in the
food service sector and modest growth in the food processing sector.

PRC emphasis on oilseed production has shifted from revitalization to stabilization in MY 23/24.
Incentives for soybean cultivation are expected to remain unchanged in MY 24/25. However,
lower domestic prices, high carry-in from MY 23/24 production, and comparatively better
margins for corn are expected to lower soybean planted area.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) continues to expand planted area for
genetically engineered (GE) corn and soy but have yet to reach full commercial cultivation. GE
corn and soy varieties, including 37 GE corn varieties and 14 GE soybean varieties are eligible
for planting in approved areas, and 26 GE corn and soybean seed production and operation
licenses have been issued.

I Oilseeds Situation and Outlook

China’s oilseed production is forecast at 64.8 MMT in MY 24/25 from the estimated 64.9 MMT in MY
23/24. The forecast is based on a stable total planted area despite People’s Republic of China (PRC)
subsidies and policies intended to support oilseed production. Due to lower prices and profits for major
oilseeds in MY 23/24, total planted area for oilseeds in MY 24/25 is forecast at 26.1 million hectares
(Mha), almost unchanged from the previous year. Forecast oilseed imports are 109 MMT in MY 24/25,
almost unchanged from Post’s MY 23/24 estimate on slow recovery of demand and relatively high
stocks. Imports are forecast to account for 63.6 percent of total domestic oilseed consumption in MY
24/25, a slight decrease from MY 23/24. Oilseed consumption for MY 24/25 is forecast at 171.4 MMT,
up from an estimated 169.6 MMT in MY 23/24 on moderate demand growth by the animal feed sector
and higher domestic vegetable oil consumption.

China’s major oilseed crops include soybeans, rapeseed, cottonseed, peanuts, and sunflower seed. Major
suppliers of oilseeds continue to be Brazil, the United States, Argentina, and Canada, which accounted
for 96.2 percent of China’s oilseed imports in MY 22/23.
 Chart 1. China: Major Oilseed Production
70
60
Production in MMT

9.7 9.3 9.3

9.5
50
15.5 15.4 15.6
40 14.5
30 16.8 18.3 18.1
18.3
20
10 16.4 19.4 19.7 19.6
0
MY21/22 MY22/23 MY23/24 MY24/25
Soybeans Peanuts Rapeseed Cottonseed Sunflowerseed
Source: MY 21/22 to MY 23/24 data are based on NBS and FAS/China estimates; MY 24/25 – FAS/China forecasts

Soybeans

Production
Soybean production for MY 24/25 is forecast at 19.6 MMT based on planted area of 9.95 Mha, both
down from Post’s estimates for MY 23/24 on declined soybean price and profits received by Chinese
farmers in MY 23/24.

Through various PRC incentives and initiatives, soybean area expanded in MY 23/24. According to
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), planted area reached a record 10.47 Mha. Industry contacts
expect overall subsidies for soybean planting in MY 24/25 to remain at or near levels offered in MY
23/24. However, Post expects recent declining prices for domestic soybeans and lower profits from MY
23/24 crop sales, which outpaced food use demand, will impact planting intention.

According to NBS, soybean production reached record 20.84 MMT in MY 23/24, up 2.8 percent from
the previous year. Official data indicates the record production was the result of a combination of record
high planted area and a slight growth of yield at 1.99 MT/Ha, a 2.2 percent and 0.5 percent increase,
respectively, from the previous year. For additional information on PRC national and provincial policies
incentivizing soybean production, see Oilseeds and Products Update | CH2023-0075).
 Table 1. China: Soybean Production by Province
Production (in MMT) MY 21/22 MY 22/23 MY 23/24 MY 24/25
Total 16.4 20.28 20.84 19.6*
Northeast Provinces 9.78 13.34
---Heilongjiang 7.1 9.66
---Inner Mongolia 1.87 2.60
---Jilin 0.61 0.80
---Liaoning 0.2 0.28
Henan 0.85 0.88
Anhui 0.9 1.00
Shandong 0.55 0.59
Others 4.65 4.48
Average Yield (MT/Ha) 1.62 1.98 1.99
Source: NBS and China’s media reports; *FAS/China forecast
Note: Northeast provinces include Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Liaoning

Both PRC central and local governments are expected to maintain policies on soybeans in MY 24/25.
However, sustaining area gained is likely to face challenging hurdles in the form of low domestic
soybean prices and profits in MY 23/24 and farmer’s experience in selling their MY 23/24 crop due to
oversupply of soybeans for both food use and crushing.

Table 2. China: Soybean and Corn Subsidy Rates and Area for Heilongjiang

2022 2023 2024

Crop Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans
Above
Subsidy/Yuan/Ha 420 3,720 210* 5,490* 5,250**
Planted area (1,000 Ha) 5,970 4,932
Source: NBS; subsidy rates are estimates by industry source; *Based on Heilongjiang local government’s reports; ** China’s
media cited Heilongjiang Agricultural Department

According to NBS, soybean prices declined significantly from the onset of the MY 23/24 harvest as
shown in Chart 2. The average price for domestic soybeans from October 2023 to February 2024 was
4,806 yuan/MT ($677/MT), 15 percent lower than the previous year.
 Chart 2. China: Soybean Prices
5400

5200

5000
Yuan/MT

4800
Harvest

4600

4400

10/14…
10/24…

11/14…
11/24…

12/14…
12/24…

2/4/2…
2/14/…
4200
4/14/23
4/24/23

5/14/23
5/24/23

6/14/23
6/24/23

7/14/23
7/24/23

8/14/23
8/24/23

9/14/23
9/24/23
10/8/23

11/4/23

12/4/23

1/14/24
1/24/24
5/7/23

6/4/23

7/4/23

8/4/23

9/4/23

1/4/24
Source: NBS

According to official media, soybean profits are estimated at 1,500 yuan to 4,500 yuan/Ha ($211 to
$630/Ha) in Heilongjiang, the largest soybean-producing province; lower than that for corn in MY
23/24. Additionally, industry contacts expect that the lack of crop rotation in the province’s Qiqihar and
Heihe regions and repeated soybean plantings in recent years will lower soybean yields. Although data
on MY 23/24 soybean profits in Heilongjiang is not available, data from nearby Inner Mongolia shows
that soybean profits in MY 23/24 were 88 percent lower than the previous year on lower yields and
marketing price, and increased production costs.

Table 3. China: Inner Mongolia Soybean Production Costs/Profits

MY 23/24 vs MY Yield Price Total --Cost of --Cost of --Costs of Net
22/23 Change % costs fertilizers Land Machinery profits
Soybeans -10 -2.6 +5.4 -2.9 +8 +4.5 -88.3
Source: Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission

In January 2024, MARA said its goal for soybean production in MY 24/25 is to “stabilize area and
increase yield” and to ensure an area of 10 Mha or above. The PRC also echoed this sentiment in the
February 2024 released No.1 Document, an annual policy document focused on agriculture and rural
development. The No.1 Document targets soybean policy to “maintain the achievement of soybean
planting expansion and support the development of high-oil and high-yielding varieties; continue to
implement the policy of subsidy for farmland fertility protection and subsidy policy for corn and
soybean producers; expand the implementation scope of full cost insurance and planting income
insurance policies to achieve the orderly expansion of soybean coverage; and expand the area of
rapeseed and support the development of specialty oil crops such as camellia.”

Industry contacts interpret the phrase “stabilize area” (in contrast to prior language referencing
“revitalization”) to imply that most soybean planting incentives from MY 23/24 will be carried into MY
24/25. Bolstering this interpretation, PRC media cited the Heilongjiang Agricultural Department as
saying subsidy rates for soybeans will exceed 5,250 yuan/Ha ($739/Ha) in 2024. In an interview in
early March, a Heilongjiang industry leader confirmed that, in 2024, the Heilongjiang soybean subsidy
rate is above 5,250 yuan/Ha ($739/Ha).The same source also confirmed that subsidy rates for Liaoning
province will remain unchanged from the previous year at 5,250 yuan/Ha ($739/Ha) above the rate for
corn and Jilin province will be at 4,200 yuan/Ha ($590/Ha) to 6,000 yuan/Ha ($845/Ha) above the rate
for corn. Official details of subsidy rates have not been published.

Limited arable land continues to constrain further expansion of soybean area, which would likely come
at the expense of corn area. Declining prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans, along with declining prices
for land rents, create a challenging proposition for Chinese farmers. Industry contacts have noted that
past subsidies provided for crop rotations to soybeans were mostly provided to large, state-owned farms
or producers, suggesting that new subsidies incentivizing soybean production may not be enough for
smaller farmers to rotate from corn to soybean in a down market. Many farmers that did rotate from corn
to soybean in MY 23/24 will likely rotate back to corn in MY 24/25, possibly eroding some of the
production area expansion.

Chart 3. China: Corn, Wheat, and Soybean Prices

6000
5500
5000
Yuan/MT

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000

Corn Wheat SBM

Source: NBS

GE Soybeans
On August 24, 2023, MARA published a report titled “Head of the Science and Technology
Development Center and the National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center of MARA
Answering Reporters' Questions on Promoting the Pilot Project of Biological Breeding
Commercialization” (link in Chinese). According to the report, the PRC launched a pilot project for the
commercialization of GE corn and soybeans in 2021, which was carried out in scientific research and
experimental fields. In 2022, it expanded the pilot project to farmer fields in Inner Mongolia and
Yunnan. In 2023, the PRC expanded the pilot project to 20 counties in 5 provinces including Hebei,
Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Sichuan, and Yunnan and arranged GE seed production in Gansu. The report also
praised the performance of the GE crops, noting the traits of insect resistance and herbicide tolerance of
GE corn and soybean are “outstanding” and cited yield increases for both GE corn and soybean in the
range of 5.6-11.6 percent. For more information on MARA’s report, please refer to GAIN Report
CH2023-0118.
MARA has not officially announced the total area planted with GE corn and soybean. However, state
news agency Xinhua cited a report (link in Chinese) in August 2023 that noted industry insiders
estimated China’s GE pilot area at 200 mu (13.3 ha) in 2021, 100,000 mu (6,667 ha) in 2022, and 4
million mu (266,667 ha) in 2023.

On December 7, 2023, MARA announced the registration of 51 GE corn and soy varieties, including 37
GE corn varieties and 14 GE soybean varieties. The registered GE corn and soybean varieties are
eligible for planting in approved areas, bringing the PRC closer to full commercial cultivation of GE
corn and soybeans (for more information on China’s GE variety registration, please refer to GAIN
Report CH2023-0185). On December 26, 2023, MARA announced the issuance of 26 GE corn and
soybean seed production and operation licenses, another important step towards commercial cultivation
of GE crops, though planting is only permitted in approved areas (see GAIN Report CH2023-0198).

GE corn is estimated to continue to account for the vast majority of China’s GE planted area in the near
term. Currently, the PRC only permits imported GE soybeans to enter processing channels (crushing)
and restricts imported GE soybeans for food use outside of vegetable oil derived from GE soybeans. It
remains to be seen how the PRC will handle any significant volumes of local GE soybeans production in
terms of food use acceptance. Additionally, major soybean producing regions, such as Heilongjiang,
would likely continue to resist planting GE soybeans as the region’s culture has been one of the least
accepting of GE products in China and operates a defacto ban on transport or import of GE soybeans
into the province. This hesitancy could greatly reduce the potential for GE soybeans to meaningfully
increase production.

Consumption
Soybean consumption for MY 24/25 is forecast at 120.8 MMT, up from the 119.3 MMT in MY 23/24.
Recent forecasts for China’s 2024 GDP growth range between 4 – 4.8 percent. On March 5, while
delivering the work plan at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Qiang
forecast China’s 2024 growth rate would be “around 5 percent.” Although well below levels
experienced prior to COVID and notwithstanding the abovementioned concerns related to PRC data,
China’s economy is expected to grow at a rate strong enough to moderately increase demand for
vegetable oil and animal products.

Soybean prices have declined significantly from their recent peak. The domestic soybean price was
4,575 yuan/MT ($644/MT) in the first two months of 2024, 15.5 percent lower than the same period in
the previous year. Imported soybean prices in the second half of 2023 were 18.3 percent lower than the
same period of 2022. Lower prices for both domestic and imported soybeans have translated into
cheaper SBM, which has declined to about 4,050 yuan/MT ($570/MT) in the first two months of 2024.
This represents an 18.3 percent drop compared to the same period in 2023 and 1,280 yuan/MT
($180/MT) lower than the record price reached in the first quarter of MY 22/23. Although competing
feed inputs have also declined over the same period, Post expects that SBM, with its greater availability
and feed efficiency, may be better positioned among other protein components to gain share in feed mill
formulations. Forecast MY 24/25 soybean consumption is up moderately on expected modest growth in
the poultry and aquaculture sectors and a moderate recovery in feed demand in the swine sector, despite
lower herd sizes. Soybean consumption growth is also partly driven by demand for food use and
soybean oil, which are also expected to rise along with GDP.
Crush
Soybean crush is forecast at 98 MMT in MY 24/25, up from an estimated 97 MMT in MY 23/24 on
moderate growth in feed demand. Estimates of MY 23/24 crush vary. A leading industry source
estimates MY 23/24 crush at 94.5 MMT, while MARA estimates 97.8 MMT, and China’s National
Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) forecasts 98.9 MMT. An industry contact shared that
soybean crush for the first six months of MY 23/24 had dropped about 1 MMT from the previous year
due to low hog prices and losses in the swine sector. Soybean crush for MY 22/23 is raised to 96 MMT
from the previous report to reflect higher feed production in 2023 and to align with historical
adjustments to USDA official data (see Important Note on PRC Trade Data in Trade section of this
report).

Annual crush capacity is estimated at about 145 MMT and is significantly underutilized. Utilization
rates typically range from 55 to 70 percent with facilities frequently adjusting operations depending on
crushing margins. Contacts report that most crushing facilities are only procuring soybeans to meet the
demand for their immediate needs as the industry expects a strong South American harvest will push
prices lower in the near term. Imported soybeans comprise the vast majority of crush volumes. However,
recent domestic soybean production has outpaced food use demand, resulting in several million tons of
local soybeans that will likely ultimately enter the crush market. While not a significant volume
compared to overall crush demand, especially if the beans are stored and crushed over several years,
these volumes are expected to modestly cut into imports.

Food Use
Food use of soybeans is expected to reach 17 MMT in MY 24/25, an increase of 0.3 MMT from the
previous year. Food use consumption of soybeans has historically followed the population, which is now
declining. NBS data indicate total population in 2023 continued falling for the second consecutive year,
with a net decline of 2.08 million from 2022. Despite a declining trend in population, food use
consumption has continued to grow due to changing dietary trends favoring plant-derived protein as an
alternative to animal proteins. A 2022 survey by the China Soybean Industry Association showed
soybean for food use reached 15.3 MMT in 2021. Out of total consumption, 61 percent was for soy-
based foods (e.g., tofu and soymilk), 24 percent was used as ingredients for processed food products
(e.g., soy protein for sausage) and 15 percent was for direct consumption, including home use. No new
survey in this regard has been conducted; however, industry sources believe that soybeans for food
continues to increase steadily. CNGOIC estimates food use of soybeans is up 0.65 MMT to reach 16.8
MMT in MY 23/24. Numerous industry contacts concur, placing food use at or near this level.

Feed, Seed, Waste Use

Soybean feed, seed, and waste use is forecast to modestly increase to 5.8 MMT in MY 24/25, led by
higher demand for extruded full-fat soybean (FFSB), which is expected to increase on adequate supplies
at lower prices. FFSB is primarily used as feed for piglets and gestating and lactating sows for its
palatability and ability to reduce overall feed intake. Data from the National Development Reform
Commission (NDRC) suggests that China uses approximately 78.3 kilograms/Ha of seeds. Thus, based
on MY 24/25 area, seed use is forecast at 0.8 MMT.
Trade
Important Note PRC Trade Data
In January, GACC made significant downward revisions to official PRC soybean import data, effecting
both MY 21/22 and MY 22/23. Imports for MY 21/22 were lowered by 1.3 MMT and imports for MY
22/23 were lowered by 3 MMT. GACC has not publicly provided a reason for these adjustments. The
unexplained adjustments to import volumes raise questions as to the accuracy and reliability of official
data, further challenging demand assessment already complicated by PRC public stock holding of
soybeans under the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. Both state reserve purchases
and stocks of soybeans and other grains are considered sensitive and are not publicly available.

In the March WASDE report, the World Agricultural Outlook Board made historical adjustment to
China’s imports and crush volumes. As noted in the USDA FAS March Oilseeds: World Markets and
Trade report, “2022/23 China soybean imports are revised up nearly 3.7 million tons to 104.5 million.
This revision is based on evaluation of major exporters’ shipments to China versus reported imports in
the last marketing year. Prior to the 2022/23 marketing year, imports are unchanged and reflect reported
import data, which aligns with exports by major shippers. China soybean imports for 2023/24 are also
raised this month by 3.0 million tons to 105.0 million, up 500,000 tons from the revised 2022/23
estimate, based on major exporters’ most recent trade data. Additionally, based on in‐country data
sources, China soybean crush is adjusted higher for the following marketing years: 2020/21, 2021/22,
and 2022/23. With higher crush and imports, 2023/24 carry-in soybean stocks have been reduced by 1.5
million tons.”

Post has aligned MY 22/23 import and crush data with USDA official data to reflect historical
adjustments.

Soybean imports are forecast at 103 MMT in MY 24/25, unchanged from Post’s estimate for MY 23/24.
Soybean imports in the first quarter of MY 23/24 reached 22.9 MMT, 6.8 percent higher than the
previous year as buyers took advantage of lower prices and greater supplies in the global market. Stable
imports for MY 24/25 are based on a slight increase of crush resulting from a modest increase in SBM
consumption as lower prices allow feed mills to push up inclusion rates. Post contacts have shared their
belief that forecasted strong harvests in Brazil and Argentina are expected to result once again in high
carry in stocks at the start of MY 24/25.

Currently, estimates for MY 23/24 soybean imports range from MARA’s 97.25 MMT, based on their
February report, to CNGOIC’s 97 MMT, based on a leading industry source’s December 2023 report.

Based on GACC’s revised January 2024 data, imports of U.S. soybeans declined to 27.4 MMT in MY
22/23, accounting for 28 percent of soybean imports. Brazil accounted for 7.1 MMT out of China’s 7.6
MMT net import growth in MY 22/23 (see Chart 4 below) mainly due to price advantage. Based on
Trade Data Monitoring, LLC. (TDM), the average import price of imported soybeans from Brazil was
10 percent lower than that from the United States in MY 22/23.

Soybean imports from the United States in the first quarter of MY 23/24 were 6.4 MMT, down
significantly from the 9.6 MMT the previous year. Based on TDM, the price of U.S. soybeans to China
in the first quarter of MY 23/24 remained about $10/MT higher than Brazil soybeans.
 Chart 4. China: Soybean Imports by Origin
(MY18/19 to MY 22/23)
110
100
90
80 17.4 37.1 27.4
70 28.6
10.3
MMT

60
50
40
68.6 62.8
30 61.2 57.1 55.7
20
10
0
MY18/19 MY19/20 MY20/21 MY21/22 MY22/23

Brazil United States Argentina Others

Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC. (based on Down Adjusted Number by China Customs in January 2024)

The PRC continues to diversify is import origins of oilseeds and products. Currently, fifteen countries
have market access to export soybeans to China (see GAIN Report: Market Access Diversification
Expands). In 2023, China began to import soybeans from South Africa with import volume reaching
0.13 MMT. Following President Putin’s attendance at the 2023 Belt and Road Forum, Russia, and China
signed a record contract for Russia to supply 70 million tons of grains and oilseeds valued at nearly $27
billion over 12 years. Total soybean imports from Africa, including Benin, Ethiopia, South Africa, and
Tanzania, reached 0.44 MMT in 2023, up from the 0.24 MMT in 2022. Despite the PRC’s efforts to
diversify the origins of its soybean imports, significant hurdles ranging from production availability to
logistics will continue to prevent a shift away from its three major suppliers: Brazil, the United States,
and Argentina. Soybean imports from all other suppliers peaked at 5.7 MMT in MY 18/19 and have
since fallen to an average of 3.2 MMT in MY 21/22 through MY 22/23.

Exports
China’s MY 24/25 soybean exports, primarily for food use, are forecast at 0.15 MMT, unchanged from
the previous year. Despite higher production and available supplies of local soybeans, exports are
expected to remain insignificant due to uncompetitive prices. Top markets for China’s non-GE soybeans
include Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

Stocks
Soybean ending stocks for MY 24/25 are forecast at 36.8 MMT, slightly up from the estimate of 35.1
MMT for the previous year. The PRC does not publish data on the volume of state-managed soybean
reserves. State reserves are held at the national and sub-national level and composed of both domestic
and imported soybeans, with imports comprising the vast majority of stocks held. Central reserves are
predominantly held by state-owned China Grain Reserve Corp (Sinograin) and COFCO Corp.

The state soybean reserves’ primary purpose is to ensure “food security.” Reserve soybeans are
routinely rotated through state-owned companies that operate networks of crushing facilities and, on
occasion, through public auctions. In 2022, the PRC sold about 4 MMT of state-reserve soybeans to
meet market demand. From June to November 2023, the PRC sold about 0.85 MMT out of the 4.3 MMT
offered in auctions. The low auction purchase rate reflects high availability of imported soybeans at
competitive price in the market. Auction sales resumed on January 12, 2024, with 67,000 MT of
imported soybean auctioned from the reserve; however, no public reports are available on results of the
auction, and the PRC has given no indication of intention for auctions to resume in the future.

Rapeseed

Production
Rapeseed production for MY 24/25 is forecast at 15.6 MMT, slightly up from the previous year based
on a slight gain in acreage to 7.4 Mha and three-year average yield. Contrary to official reports on
rapeseed area and production, numerous contacts continue to assess that the PRC’s actual rapeseed
production may be as low as half of official estimates.

China has two planting periods for rapeseed. The winter crop is typically planted in
November/December and harvested in April/May. The summer crop is planted in June and harvested in
September. The summer crop is primarily cultivated in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang
provinces and contributes less than 10 percent of total production. The winter crop is predominantly
grown in Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Guizhou, Jiangsu provinces and typically accounts for more
than 90 percent of production.

According to MARA, rapeseed area and production (summer harvested) for MY 23/24 both set records,
reaching 6.66 Mha and 14.5 MMT, respectively. A CNGOIC report estimates MY 23/24 rapeseed
production at 16.7 MMT, from the 15.5 MMT the previous year. MARA continues to encourage more
rapeseed planting by using winter land in the Yangtze River region, one of the few areas where land in
China remains idle for any feasible additional production. State media reported the PRC continues to
provide subsidies in the amount of 2,250 yuan/Ha ($317/Ha) to encourage rapeseed planting in the
region. In Sichuan, the largest rapeseed-producing province, rapeseed area reached 1.44 Mha, up 2.6
percent year-on-year; in Hubei province, rapeseed acreage reportedly hit a record 1.27 Mha. Other
official reports indicate that Hunan Province allocated 1 billion yuan ($140 million) to rapeseed planting
regions to raise yields, the equivalent of approximately $95/Ha. Meanwhile, MARA has reported that it
has selected 102 counties to promote higher yields through large scale rapeseed farming in MY 24/25.

According to PRC media, MY 24/25 rapeseed planting was normal and completed at the beginning of
December 2023. According to China’s National Climate Center’s March Report (link in Chinese),
“from the sowing to February, the national average climate was generally favorable for rapeseed growth.
However, two instances of low-temperature rain and snow in February caused freeze damage to some
rapeseed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Hunan rapeseed suffered the most
severe freeze damage. As of the end of February, the growth of rapeseed in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Hubei is
slightly worse from last year and the average.” Other reports indicate strong storms brought snow and
ice to large swathes of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces, causing varying degrees of damage
to rapeseed crops in these areas. The full impact on yields has not yet been evaluated, but given the
severity of the storm, Post expects yields will be negatively impacted. Post expects area and production
of the summer crop, primarily planted in the northwest, to be stable in MY 24/25. In recent years the
summer crop has averaged 1.1 MMT.
 Table 4. China: Rapeseed Production by Province
MY/Production (in MMT) MY21/22 MY22/23 MY23/24 MY24/25
Total 14.71 15.53 15.4* 15.6*
Sichuan 3.39 3.54
Hubei 2.52 2.74
Hunan 2.3 2.44 2.59
Anhui 0.91 0.96 1.1
Guizhou 0.81 0.95
Jiangxi 0.73 0.79
Northwest Provinces** 1.11 1.18
Others 2.93 2.93
Source: NBS; *FAS/China estimate/forecast; **Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Xizang, and Ningxia

Trade
Rapeseed imports rebounded sharply in MY 22/23 to 5.3 MMT, with largest supplier Canada providing
nearly 5 MMT of total imports. Imports have remained strong in the first quarter of MY 23/24, reaching
1.25 MMT with Canada accounting for 86 percent of market share. Though a small percentage of total
imports, rapeseed imports from Russia recovered in MY 22/23 and remained high in the first quarter of
MY 23/24. High carry in stocks and stable domestic rapeseed production are expected to keep imports
below the high levels seen in MY 22/23. Post estimates MY 24/25 imports at 4 MMT, unchanged from
MY 23/24.

Policy
In addition to subsidies in the amount of 2,250 yuan/Ha ($317/Ha) to encourage rapeseed planting in the
Yangtze River region, some provincial governments also provide additional subsidies to farmers to use
new, higher performing rapeseed varieties. In MY 24/25, Sichuan province provided subsidies to
promote planting of 11 high quality rapeseed varieties in the province.

Peanuts

Production
Peanut production is forecast at 18.1 MMT in MY 24/25, down from an estimated 18.3 MMT in MY
23/24. The decline in production is based on a stable area due to comparatively strong margins over
competing crops and a 3-year average yield.
 Chart 5. China: Peanut Production and Area
(MY 20/21 to MY 24/25)
20 4.9
4.8
Production in MMT

15 5.95 5.91 6.15 5.90 5.8 4.7

Area in MHa
4.6
4.5
10
4.4
12.04 12.40 12.18 12.40 12.2 4.3
5 4.2
4.1
0 4.0
MY20/21 MY21/22 MY22/23 MY23/24 MY24/25

Production of others Production of Henan Area

Source: NBS; and data for MY 23/24 and MY 24/25 are FAS China estimate/forecast

Despite price fluctuations, peanut profits in recent years have exceeded those from cotton, corn, and
soybeans in most peanut-producing regions. Based on industry sources, although peanut prices dropped
significantly following harvest in MY 23/24, profits remain competitive compared with other competing
crops. In Henan, peanut profits ranged from 10,905 yuan to 17,280 yuan/Ha ($1,526 to 2,430/Ha); in
Liaoning, peanuts generated 7,950 yuan/Ha ($1,120/Ha) compared to 6,225 yuan/Ha ($877/Ha) for corn.
Industry sources report peanut quality declined in MY 23/24, pushing the share of peanuts for crushing
to over 60 percent from the average 52 percent. Peanut area is stable in most regions but expected to
expand in Xinjiang in MY 24/25 due to local government programs to restructure the region’s crop mix
away from cotton in areas where that crop typically generates lower yields.

Chart 6. China: Peanut Kernel Price Trend

(April 2023 to February 2024)
10250

10000

9750

9500 Harvest
Yuan/MT

9250 starts
9000

8750

8500

8250
4/14/23
4/24/23

5/14/23
5/24/23

6/14/23
6/24/23

7/14/23
7/24/23

8/14/23
8/24/23

9/14/23
9/24/23
10/8/23

11/4/23

12/4/23

1/14/24
1/24/24

2/14/24
5/7/23

6/4/23

7/4/23

8/4/23

9/4/23

10/14/23
10/24/23

11/14/23
11/24/23

12/14/23
12/24/23
1/4/24

2/4/24

Source: NBS

Trade
China’s peanut imports are forecast at 1 MMT in MY 24/25, unchanged from the estimate for MY 23/24
on relatively stable domestic production and consumption. Peanut imports in the first quarter of MY
23/24 slowed due to large domestic production at declining prices. Domestically produced peanuts
dominate the food and snack food sectors and supply a large share of crush volume, while imports
primarily fill excess demand for crush.

Shelled peanut imports from Senegal and Sudan, which enter China duty free, continue to dominate the
import market. Shelled peanuts from these origins accounted for 83 percent (converted into in-shell
volume at about 0.78 MMT) of China’s peanut imports in MY 22/23. Peanut imports from the United
States are almost entirely in-shell peanuts taking 99 percent of that market segment.

Chart 7. China: Peanut Imports from Major Origins

(MY 20/21 to MY 23/24)
1400
1200
1000
1,000 MT

800
600
400
200
0
Total Sudan Senegal United States
MY20/21 MY21/22 MY22/23 MY23/24*
Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC.; *MY23/24 total imports are FAS China estimate

The PRC approved market access for Brazil peanuts on July 19, 2022. However, Brazilian peanut
exports to China remain limited, reaching just 1,400 MT in MY 22/23. On average, Brazil exported
260,000 MT of shelled peanuts per year over the last three years. Peanut imports are subject to a 15
percent MFN import duty and a 10 percent value-added tax. The PRC has implemented a tariff
exclusion process for Section 301 retaliatory tariffs on U.S. peanuts since March 2020 (see GAIN
Report China Announces a New Round of Tariff Exclusions).

Peanut exports, mainly shelled or processed, are forecast at 0.5 MMT in MY 24/25, unchanged the
previous year on relatively stable domestic production. The small volume of peanut exports primarily
ships to nearby markets. In MY 22/23, Japan, South Korea, and other ASEAN countries were the major
destinations of China’s peanut exports.

Policy
Peanut farmers receive a 150 yuan/Ha ($22/Ha) planting seed subsidy from the central government.

Cottonseed

Production
Cottonseed production for MY 24/25 is forecast at 9.3 MMT, unchanged from the previous year based
on stable area and modest increase of cotton price and profits in MY 23/24. The PRC’s target price for
Xinjiang cotton, whose production is capped at 5.1 MMT, has triggered a restructuring of the crop mix
in the region. As a result, in MY 23/24, total cotton area declined by about 130,000 Ha from the
previous year in Xinjiang (See GAIN Report Cotton Subsidy Policy Updated). This policy is expected to
continue in MY 24/25.

Based on planted area at 2.95 Mha and yield at 2,014.5 kg/Ha, down 7.1 percent and up 1.1 percent,
respectively, from the previous year, NBS estimates total cotton production for MY 23/24 at 5.62 MMT,
down 362,000 MT or 6.1 percent from the previous year. NBS cites low cotton profits in MY 22/23 and
the restructured crop mix in Xinjiang as factors resulting in cotton area declining to 2.37 Mha, down 5.1
percent or 127,600 Ha year-on-year. Much of the reduced area is the result of phasing out planting on
marginal land or land not appropriate for cotton growing. However, according to the China Fiber
Inspection Center (CFIC), as of January 30, 2024, total official classified cotton volume for Xinjiang
reached 5.38 MMT, exceeding the NBS’s 5.11 MMT estimate. Post estimates cottonseed production at
9.3 MMT for MY 23/24 based on a higher estimate of classified cotton volumes.

Based on a December survey, the China Cotton Association (CCA) expects MY 24/25 cotton planting
intention to be 40.88 million Mu (2.73 Mha), down 1.5 percent from the previous year. The slight fall in
planting intention reflects declining cotton prices and farmer uncertainty. However, average cotton
prices post-harvest in MY 23/24 were higher than the previous year and rebounded further in January
2024, which may drive planting intention in sowing season.

Trade
China’s cottonseed imports are forecast at 0.7 MMT in MY 24/25 on growing feed sector demand.
Though still an insignificant volume in the context of the China’s total oilseed complex, cottonseed
facilitates the PRC’s efforts to diversify oilseed and protein meal sources. The majority of domestic
cottonseed is produced in Xinjiang province, which is relatively far from primary consumption areas,
providing an opportunity for imports when prices allow.

Sunflower Seed

The PRC does not publish official sunflower seed production data. Based on NBS’s total production
number for major oilseeds, Post estimates MY 22/23 sunflower seed production at 2.2 MMT. Post
estimates sunflower seed production will maintain similar levels in MY 23/24 and MY24/25.

Imports of sunflower seed increased to 0.27 MMT in MY 22/23 from 0.15 MMT in MY 21/22 on larger
volumes from top suppliers Kazakhstan, Bulgaria, and Russia. The increase in Bulgarian sunflower seed
volumes is likely linked to movements of cargoes from Ukraine. In the first quarter of MY 23/24
imports reached 72,000 MT, up from 59,000 MT in MY 22/23.

Other Oilseeds

The PRC continues to promote camellia production in China’s southern provinces, including Hunan,
Jiangxi, and Guangxi. However, due to low yields, production has grown slowly, with oil production
estimated at about 1 MMT in 2023. A 3-year (2023-2025) plan for increasing camellia oil production
was enacted in 2022. The plan calls for planting 1.3 Mha of camellia trees, improving the low-yield trees
on 0.85 Mha, and increasing total camellia acreage to more than 6 Mha by 2035 from 4.67 Mha in 2023.
A PRC official indicated that as of the end of November 2023, newly planted trees had reached 0.32
Mha and improved low-yield trees had reached 0.31 Mha, accounting for 86 percent and 111 percent of
the targets, respectively.

Imports of Other Oilseeds

Based on GACC data, in 2023, China’s imports of flaxseed (HS Code 1204) reached 1.2 MMT, up 99
percent year-on-year. Imports of sesame (HS Code 120740) remained high at 0.9 MMT, a decline from
1 MMT in 2022. Imports of these oilseeds added supply of vegetables oils for food use and residue for
feed. Russia and Kazakhstan provided 95 percent of China flaxseed imports in 2023. Africa, including
Niger, Tanzania, Sudan and Togo, are major suppliers of sesame to China, taking a combined 57 percent
market share, followed by Pakistan at 18 percent.

Trade Policy
The two primary regulations governing oilseeds trade are the Administrative Measures regarding the
Inspection and Quarantine for the Entry and Exit of Grain and Oilseeds, also referred to as AQSIQ
Decree 177 (see GAIN report CH16003), and the Supervision and Management Measures for the
Inspection and Quarantine of Import and Export Feed and Feed Additives, also referred to as AQSIQ
Decree 118 (see GAIN report CH9071). Imports of GE soybeans require a Biosafety Certificate for
Agricultural Biotech (Import) Issued to Foreign Developers and a Biosafety Certificate for Agricultural
Biotechnology (Import) Issued to Overseas Traders. Both certificates are issued by MARA. For
additional information, please see GAIN Report 2023 Agricultural Biotechnology Annual.

GACC Department of Animal and Plant Quarantine (DAPQ) requires exporters of “minor oilseeds”
and/or “select oil crops” to register exporting facilities prior to product shipment. Exporters seeking to
register a U.S. facility or update a U.S. facility registration to export cottonseed, flaxseed (linseed),
sunflower seed, sesame seed, mustard seed; and/or oil palm fruit and kernel to China from the United
States are advised to submit a registration request to the Office of Agricultural Affairs at the U.S.
Embassy, Beijing. For additional information, please see GAIN Report Minor Oilseed Export Facility
Registration Process Updated.

GACC DAPQ requires exporters of peanuts (raw/uncooked, shelled or in-shell) to register exporting
facilities prior to product shipment.

In December 2022, GACC published an updated List of Grains and Plant Derived Feed Materials
Approved Market Access to China by Country/Regions (GAIN Report: Market Access Diversification
Expands). The list was last updated on June 13, 2023. No changes were made on market access for
major oilseeds.

Registration of U.S. Soybean, Peanut, and Minor Oilseeds Exporting Companies

According to GACC requirements, companies exporting soybeans, peanuts, and minor oilseeds to China
must be registered with GACC before exportation. The current list of U.S. soybeans, peanuts, and minor
oilseeds companies registered to export to China can be found at the GACC website.
(Note: The above website lists facilities registered to export to the PRC by exporting country. Please
select Item 28 for facilities from the United States. Tab 1 includes barley, wheat, corn, soybean, and
sorghum. Tab 2 includes fresh potatoes. Tab 3 includes dried beans, dried peas, pulses, and lentils. Tab 4
currently includes other edible grains. Tab 5 includes “Minor Oilseeds peanuts (raw/uncooked, shelled
or in-shell), cottonseed, flaxseed (linseed), sunflower seed, sesame seed, mustard seed; and/or oil palm
fruit and kernel.

According to GACC Decree 177 of 2016, all overseas production, processing, and storage enterprises
are required to register with GACC prior to exporting “grains” such as soybeans, corn, wheat, barley,
sorghum, and oats – including edible grains. These requirements are in addition to U.S. requirements
under the United States Grain Standards Act (USGSA), which requires the registration of all persons
engaged in the business of buying grain for sale in foreign commerce and in the business of handling,
weighing, or transporting grain for sale in foreign commerce. Each year, U.S. enterprises must register
with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Marketing Service’s (AMS) Federal
Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) before shipping “grains” to China. Please see GAIN report Important
Reminder - Required Registration of Overseas Grain and Oilseed Enterprises for information on how to
register.

Exporters seeking to register a U.S. facility or update a U.S. facility registration to export cottonseed,
flaxseed (linseed), sunflower seed, sesame seed, mustard seed; and/or oil palm fruit and kernel to China
from the United States are advised to submit a registration request to the Office of Agricultural Affairs
at the U.S. Embassy, Beijing. For additional information, please see GAIN Report Minor Oilseed Export
Facility Registration Process Updated.

Exporters seeking to register a U.S. facility or update a U.S. facility registration for sending peanuts
(raw/uncooked, shelled or in-shell) to China from the United States are advised to submit a registration
request. For information on the process, requirements, current registrations, and points of contact related
to U.S. peanut exports to China, please see GAIN Report Peanut Export Facility Registration Process
Updated.

II Oilseed Meal Situation and Outlook

Consumption
Protein meal use for feed is forecast to rise moderately to 101.6 MMT in MY 24/25, up 1 percent from
the 100.5 MMT in MY 23/24. Despite slowing economic growth and a declining population, increasing
demand for animal protein and consolidation within the animal protein sector will continue to raise
demand for protein meal for feed production.

According to NBS, China’s GDP reached 5.2 percent in 2023, slightly higher than the 5 percent target.
Although various China watchers have cast doubt on the actual growth rate given China’s increasingly
troubled housing sector, high youth unemployment, and overall decline in consumer sentiment, the PRC
appears confident that the economic outlook for 2024 will support growth of 5 percent. Previously, at
the Economic Working Conference held in December 2023, the PRC emphasized that to raise the
domestic demand and consumption is the top priority for economic growth in 2024. Although the new
target growth rate of 5 percent is lower than what was reportedly achieved in 2023, it is also more
ambitious since the economy had more room to expand following headwinds in 2022 related to zero-
COVID.

According to MARA, total industrial feed production reached 321.6 MMT in 2023, an increase of 6.6
percent from the previous year. The jump in industrial feed production comes despite low margins in
swine and poultry production and likely reflects greater consolidation and use of industrial feed in the
sector. Compound feed production was reported at 298.9 MMT, up 6.9 percent and accounting for 92.9
percent of total industrial feed produced. Increased compound feed production and declining production
of concentrates also reflects an increase of larger-scale production. By feed categories, swine feed is
reported at 149.7 MMT, poultry (meat) feed is 95.1 MMT, poultry (eggs) feed is 32.7 MMT, and
ruminant feed is 16.7 MMT; increases of 10 percent, 6.6 percent, 2 percent, and 3.4 percent,
respectively, from 2022. Despite continuing challenges in much of the animal protein sector, total feed
production in the first quarter of MY 23/24 is estimated at 90.2 MMT, 4.3 percent higher than the
previous year.

Chart 8. China: Feed and Animal Products Production

120 321.6 350
293.4 302.2
300
Animal prodcuts in MMT

100 252.8
250 All meats

Feed in MMT
80 200 Eggs

60 150 Milk
100
Aquaculture
40 products*
50
20 0
2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: NBS and MARA; *Cultured aquatic products

NBS reports production of most major animal products increased in 2023. Pork and cultured aquatic
products both increased by 2.5 MMT, or 4.6 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, from the previous
year. MARA has acknowledged actual feed consumption is much higher than feed production covered
by official statistics and estimates total feed consumption for 2022 at about 454 MMT. In consideration
of the net growth of animal products in 2023 and average feed conversion rates, Post estimates total feed
consumption by China’s animal farming sector could have exceed 472 MMT in 2023.
 Table 5. China: Production of Animal Products and Milk and Carry-In Stocks

Cultured
Total
-Pork -Beef -Mutton -Poultry Milk Eggs Aquatic
meat
Products
2024
Production 96.41 57.94 7.53 5.31 25.63 41.97 35.63 58.12
(MMT)
Change
+4.5 +4.6 +4.8 +1.3 +4.9 +6.7 +3.1 +4.4
in %**
2024 Carry-In
Animal
434.22* 105.09* 322.33 6780*
Inventory
(million heads)
Change
- 4.1 +2.9 -1.2 +0.2
in %**
Source: NBS; **Change over 2022; *It refers to inventory of all pigs, cattle/cow, sheep/goats, and all poultry birds

Chart 9 below shows China’s per capita consumption of animal and dairy products through 2022
(official data is not yet available for 2023). Based on China’s economic rebound in 2023 and generally
stable or declining prices for most animal and dairy products, Post estimates data will indicate higher per
capita consumption for 2023.

Chart 9. China: Per Capita Consumption of Animal and Dairy Products

90
76.8 77.1
80
68.3 70.5
70
60 67.2 68.9
Kg/Year

50 55.9
53.9
40
30
16.7 17.3 18.2
20 15.4

10 9.3 8.4
7.3 7.4
0
2019 2020 2021 2022

Urban AP Rural AP Urban MDP Rural MDP

Source: NBS; Note: AP-animal products including pork, beef and mutton, poultry, eggs, and aquatic products; MDP- milk
and dairy products

Throughout 2023, high production of animal products attributed to an oversupply and low prices,
particularly for pork and seafood. As shown in Chart 10, swine profit plummeted since the beginning of
2023 with small farms suffering 13 consecutive months of losses. As a result, consolidation in the sector
accelerated as many small farms closed. Based on MARA data, the share of scale farming (defined as
500 or more hogs sold for slaughter annually) increased to 68 percent in 2023, up 3 percent points from
2022. By contrast to small farms, industry contacts describe larger players in the sector as playing a high
stakes poker game where players have already wagered too much to fold and instead try to stay in the
game with additional investment in the hopes that others will fold first; thus, reducing competition and
offering some hope of economic reward and greater market share. It remains to be seen how the game
will unfold, but industry contracts note the top 20 swine companies account for less than 30 percent of
production, implying it may be several more years before some can see any payout.

Chart 10. China: Swine Profits

(Monthly Average: Yuan/Head)
1500

1000
Yuan/Head

500

-500

Scale farms Small farms

Source: MARA

In positive news for the sector, after years of missing targets, sow inventories declined to 40.65 million
heads as of the end of January 2024, slightly below the MARA target of 41 million head and 6.9 percent
lower than that in January 2023. Smaller carry-in inventory for swine/sow and an estimated fall in pork
production are expected to reduce demand for feed in the swine sector (see 2024 Livestock Semi Annual
and 2024 Poultry and Products Semi Annual). However, Post expects this reduction will be partially
offset by a higher number of at-scale farms driving higher feed demand.

The PRC continues efforts to promote low-protein diets for animals as a means to reducing the country’s
reliance on imported soybeans. These efforts, which have coincided with high SBM prices in recent
years, have slowed growth in SBM demand. In a press briefing held in January 2024, MARA said that
through its efforts, the current average SBM inclusion rate in feed has dropped to 13 percent, a decrease
of 1.5 percentage points from 2022. If this were true, calculated based on the estimated actual feed
consumption, it is equivalent to a reduction of about 9 MMT of soybean consumption. With no
corresponding decline in soybean imports, increase in total consumption, or surge in domestic
production, such a figure seems unlikely.

Regardless, MARA continues to stress that it is scientifically feasible to reduce SBM in feed,
emphasizing that a comprehensive promotion of low-protein diet technology requires adopting a precise
feed formula and fine processing technology, combined with the use of feed additives such as amino
acids and increased use of other protein sources. These claims are not entirely without merit. Vertically
integrated producers are better positioned to operate low-protein feed programs and reduce SBM
inclusion to below 10 percent, especially during later stage feeding. As shown in Chart 11, Muyuan
Group, China’s largest swine company with its own feed network, said it achieved an average 6 percent
SBM inclusion rate in 2023 (see State TV interview with the company’s chairman), compared to a 15.3
percent average for the feed industry in 2021. Other large companies such as New Hope Group and Haid
Group reported 10.7 percent and 12 percent SBM inclusion rates, respectively, in 2021.

Chart 11. China: Muyuan Group Average SBM Inclusion Rate in Feed
11

10
SBM Inlusion Rate in %

9.8
9

6 6

5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Muyuan Group Report on MARA website and data for 2023 is based on China’s media report

Despite MARA’s efforts and recent trends among large swine producers, SBM continues to dominate
protein meal consumption and is expected to account for over 74.4 percent of feed meal use in MY
24/25, up slightly from the previous year. Total SBM feed use is forecast to increase to 75.3 MMT in
MY 24/25 from an estimated 74.4 MMT the previous year. Total use of all other meals is forecast up
moderately to 26.3 MMT in MY 24/25 from the 26.1 MMT in MY 23/24.

Chart 12. China: Share of Protein Meals for Feed in MY 24/25

SBM -74.1%
Rapeseed Meal -12.7%
Peanut Meal - 4.0%
Cotton Seed Meal - 3.5%
Sunflower Seed Meal - 3.5%
Fish Meal - 2.2%

Source: FAS/China Forecast

While the outlook for some competing protein meals is positive, such as palm kernel meal, which saw a
50 percent jump in imports to 1.5 MMT in 2023, there are still only limited volumes of SBM
alternatives available to meet China’s demand. What is more, several factors suggest that SBM demand
may increase, including lower prices, expectations for higher profits in the swine sector during the
second half of 2024, moderate growth in the poultry and aquaculture sectors, increased use of compound
feed, and changes in availability of SBM alternatives.

As shown in Chart 13, SBM prices have declined significantly since reaching a peak in December 2022.
Average prices in February 2024 hit a two-year low of just about 3,900 yuan/MT ($550/MT), a 20
percent drop from the previous year. Over the same period, declines in corn and wheat (see Chart 3)
occurred at a slower pace. Post estimates in 2023 about 37 MMT of wheat, a net growth of 4 MMT form
the previous year, entered feed channels that otherwise would not have due to poor quality as a result of
heavy rains during harvest (see Grain and Feed Update 2024). It is uncertain if such conditions will
repeat in 2024.

Chart 13. China: Pork Price vs SBM Price

(October 2021 to February 2024)
45 6000
40
35 5500

SBM: Yuan/MT
Pork: Yuan/Kg

30
5000
25
20
4500
15
10 4000
5
0 3500

Pork SBM
Source: MARA

Aquaculture continues to be a bright spot for SBM use. China’s declining wild caught seafood is
expected to increase the intensity of aquaculture production. This requires higher protein levels, which
could push the industry’s average SBM inclusion rate beyond the current 28 percent (see the 2023 China
Fisheries Report for additional information). Most industry contacts continue to assess that feed
economics ultimately determine at what rate SBM is included in feed. In the highly competitive animal
protein sector, cost, value, availability, and efficiency will continue to determine feed rations. Post
estimates China’s total feed use of all other protein meals (excluding SBM) will remain relatively stable,
ranging from 26 MMT to 27 MMT per year. Average SBM inclusion rates in the poultry sector are
between 27-28 for white feather broiler. Swine sector inclusion rates likely average 15-16 percent, a few
larger suppliers notwithstanding. Based on these factors, Post estimates SBM for feed use will
moderately increase through MY 24/25.
Protein Meal Trade
Protein meal imports are forecast at about 7 MMT in MY 24/25, nearly unchanged from MY 23/24.
Rapeseed meal imports, which are primarily used by the aquaculture sector, are forecast at 2 MMT in
MY 24/25 – slightly down from the previous year on high domestic crushing of rapeseed, although
imports of rapeseed meal increased to 0.8 MMT in the first quarter of MY 23/24. Sunflower seed meal
imports are forecast stable at 3 MMT in MY 23/24 and MY 24/25. Imports of sunflower seed meal
reached 0.9 MMT in the first quarter of MY 23/24 but are likely to continue facing uncertainty as the
war in Ukraine, China’s largest supplier, extends into its third year. As previously mentioned, palm
kernel meal imports, popular for their price advantage, have increased significantly and are forecast to
reach 2.2 MMT in MY 24.25.

Fish meal imports for MY 24/25 are forecast at 1.8 MMT, up slightly from the estimated 1.75 MMT for
MY23/24 on a stable demand in the aquaculture sector and forecast higher production in Peru. Based on
industry statistics, in 2023, global fish meal production declined, with a noticeable drop in Peru. China’s
fish meal imports declined 9.3 percent from 2022 on higher import prices, which rose 7.5 percent year-
on-year. In 2023, of China’s 1.65 MMT fish meal imports, Peru remained the top supplier with exports
of about 0.45 MT or 26 percent of total imports, a drop from 48.3 percent market share. U.S. fish meal
exports to China increased to 83,000 MT in 2023, up from the 50,000 MT in the previous year.

China’s protein meal exports are limited and comprised almost entirely of SBM to Japan and South
Korea. Protein meal exports are forecast at 1 MMT in MY 24/25.

III Vegetable Oil Situation and Outlook

Production
Vegetable oil production for MY 24/25 is forecast at 29.9 MMT, up from 29.6 MMT in MY 23/24 on
moderate increase of soybean and rapeseed crush. Soybean oil remains China’s primary domestically
produced vegetable oil, projected to account for 58.7 percent of total oil production in MY 24/25.
Rapeseed oil and peanut oil are forecast to account for 25.2 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively.
Production of specialty oils continues to grow, though at a rate slower than government targets. Top
domestically produced specialty oils include camellia oil, sesame oil, corn oil, and rice oil.

Consumption
MY 24/25 food consumption of vegetable oil is forecast at 36.5 MMT, up 1.9 percent from the previous
year. Though slowing, GDP growth, urbanization, and increasing food service and bakery production
continue to increase demand for vegetable oil. China’s per capita vegetable oil consumption is estimated
at about 25.5 kg in MY 23/24 and is expected to slightly increase in MY 24/25. Consumption is higher
than comparable markets such as Taiwan and South Korea, mainly due to consumer dietary preferences.
Some industry contacts estimate China may be approaching or have already hit peak vegetable oil
consumption, suggesting little room for growth in years ahead.

As indicated in Chart 14, per capita and yearly consumption of oils and fats for home use declined in
2022; likely due to high vegetable oil prices in addition to impacts from COVID related restrictions.
Home use is not expected to grow significantly as growth is forecast to mainly occur through demand in
the food service and food processing sectors in MY 23/24 and beyond.
 Chart 14. China: Per Capita and Total Consumption of Vegetable Oils and Fats
(2019 to 2022)
12 15.5

11 15

14.5
Per Capita in Kg

10
14

MMT
9
13.5
8
13
7 12.5

6 12
2019 2020 2021 2022

Urban Rural Estimated total use in MMT

Source: NBS; Per capita consumption covers home use. The estimated total is calculated based on NBS data on urban and
rural population.

Along with economic growth, China’s overall consumption recovered in 2023 with total consumer
goods retail and food service revenue up 5.8 percent and 20.4 percent, respectively, year-on-year,
according to NBS. Growth in food service continued during the first three months (October to December
2023) of MY 23/24, reaching 24.3 percent year-on-year, and is expected to continue in the first quarter
of 2024 when the annual Spring Festival holiday typically boosts consumption. Industry sources report
Spring Festival 2024 takeaway orders surged at restaurants across China. For example, Chengdu
reported restaurant sales increased 71 percent for the period, Nanchang 448 percent, Hefei 658 percent
and Zhanjiang in Guangdong an astounding 2,150 percent from the previous year. An online food
service provider reported that the banquet orders for restaurants in the 2024 Spring Festival vacation
surged 161 percent over 2023.

Chart 15. China: Food Service Revenue Recovered in 2023

(2019 to 2023)
6000 25
20
5000
Yearly change in %

15
Billion Yuan

4000 10
5
3000
5289 0
4672.1 4689.5 4394.1
2000 3952.7 -5
-10
1000
-15
0 -20
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Revenue Growth rate%

Source: NBS
In addition to home use and food service, China’s food processing industry is also a driving force for
vegetable oil consumption. An industry source estimates China’s per capita consumption of baked goods
is less than half of Japan’s and just 20 percent of the United States’, suggesting much room for growth.
Based on an industry report, the output value of the bakery sector grew by 7.9 percent in 2023, and
growth is forecast to exceed 8 percent in 2024. Another leading industry source estimated total
production of baked goods at 19.6 MMT in 2022, up from the 17.5 MMT in 2020, with sales of cakes,
pastries, cookies, and breads increasing (see China's Rising Bakery Sector for more information). The
most widely used oils in the sector include soybean, palm, sunflower seed, and sesame.

Vegetable oil, particularly soybean and palm oil due to their ready availability, is also consumed in the
feed sector. The vegetable oil inclusion rate varies widely among feed mills and feed varieties and is
affected by prices of oil and other feed ingredients. Post estimates feed use of vegetable oil at 1.2 MMT
in MY 23/24 on increased use of lower-quality wheat for feed and lower prices for soybean oil and palm
oil. Feed use consumption is forecast to increase to 1.3 MMT in MY 24/25 on price and availability
advantages.

Prices for major vegetable oils decreased rapidly in 2023. As shown in Table 6, MARA data indicate,
except peanut oil, the average price for major vegetable oils declined in MY 22/23. Specifically,
soybean oil prices declined 16.3 percent, rapeseed oil 18.6 percent, and palm oil price dropped 30
percent, year-on-year. The China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (CASDE) estimates prices
for these oils will rebound moderately in MY 23/24 (see Table 6).

Price advantages for palm oil are expected to boost food use consumption of the oil to 4 MMT in MY
23/24 and MY 24/25. Despite a slight decline in demand from its peak in 2020, China (including Hong
Kong) remains the global leader in instant noodle consumption. According the World Instant Noodle
Association China consumed 45 billion servings of instant noodles in 2022 (the latest full years data
available). Much of these servings are produced domestically, utilizing palm oil-frying to reduce
moisture, a process which the Malaysian Palm Oil Council notes could result in the oils accounting for
as much as 20 percent of the total weight of instant noodles. Soybean oil use for food is expected to
grow due to its availability and relative price advantage over rapeseed oil and peanut oil in MY 23/24
and MY 24/25.

Table 6. China: Prices for Major Vegetable Oils

(MY21/22 to MY23/24 Yearly Average; Yuan/MT)
MY21/22 MY22/23 MY23/24**
Soybean oil* 10,592 8,862 8,000 - 10,000
Rapeseed oil* 13,201 10,747 9,000 - 11,000
Peanut oil* 16,667 16,705 15,500 - 17,000
Palm oil (imported after tariff price) 11,554 8,093 7,000 - 9,500
Source: MARA CASDE report; *Ex-factory price; ** CASDE estimated price range

Trade
Vegetable oil imports for MY 24/25 are forecast at 10.8 MMT, up from the estimate of 10.7 MMT for
MY 23/24. A moderate increase in domestic production increase and slowing consumption growth are
expected to limit vegetable oil imports. China’s imports of vegetable oils rebounded in MY 22/23 as
import prices dropped from their peak in summer 2022 and demand began to recover following an end
to PRC COVID restrictions.

Chart 16. China: Total Imports of Vegetable Oils and Imports from Russia and Ukraine
(MY 10/20 to MY 22/23)
14000 12562
11780
12000
Volume in 1000 MT

10,595
10000
8000 6552
6000
4000
2000
0
MY19/20 MY20/21 MY21/22 MY22/23
Total Russia Ukraine
Source: Trade Data Monitor, LLC.; Total imports of 7 oils (palm oil, rapeseed oil, sunflower seed oil, soybean oil, peanut oil,
cotton seed oil and copra oil)

Imports of palm oil are forecast at 6.7 MMT in MY 24/25, up from an estimated 6.6 MMT in MY 23/24.
Palm oil imports plummeted in MY 21/22 due to record high prices and restrictive export policies by
Indonesia, the largest producer and China’s largest supplier.

Rapeseed oil imports are forecast at 1.7 MMT in MY 24/25, unchanged from the previous year on high
domestic production and stocks. Peanut oil imports are forecast at 0.3 MMT in MY 24/25 on high
domestic crushing, unchanged from the estimate for the previous year. Peanut oil imports are
constrained by China’s significant domestic production and the comparatively high price of imports.

Imports of sunflower seed oil, mainly from Ukraine and Russia, are expected to remain stable at 1.4
MMT in MY 23/24 and MY 24/25. Imports of sunflower oil in the first quarter of MY 23/24 are 11
percent lower than the previous year. Russia replaced Ukraine as the largest supplier of sunflower seed
oil to China from MY 21/22 and reached a 49 percent market share in MY 22/23.

China exports minimal volumes of vegetable oil, reaching 0.18 MMT in 2023. Top markets for China exports
include Hong Kong, Malaysia, and North Korea.

Stocks
Forecast MY 24/25 total vegetable oil ending stocks are 3.8 MMT, up slightly from the estimated 3.6
MMT in MY 23/24. The PRC maintains a strategic vegetable oil reserve. Although information about
the volume of the reserve is not publicly available, the NFSRA rotates its reserve through auctions when
it considers necessary to regulate market supply and price. Assessing the quantity and timing of rotations
from the state vegetable oil reserve is difficult due to the role of state-owned enterprises in the process
and the lack of clear and transparent data or public announcements.
 Total Oilseeds, Total Meal, and Total Oil Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) Tables

Table 7. China: Total Oilseeds

PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Total Oilseeds (1000 tons; 1000Ha)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Area Planted 19,170 25,987 19,250 26,130 26,120
Area Harvested 25,954 25,987 26,140 26,130 26,120
Beginning Stocks 26,262 26,262 35,144 34,389 37,537
Production 67,917 64,230 67,317 64,900 64,850
MY Imports 111,706 111,717 109,950 108,900 108,950
TOTAL SUPPLY 205,885 202,209 212,411 208,189 211,337
MY Exports 928 928 1,070 1,070 1,050
Crush Dom. Cons. 135,200 134,400 136,200 135,600 136,900
Food Use Dom. Cons. 24,750 23,302 25,700 25,152 25,465
Feed, Seed, Waste Dom.
Cons. 9,863 9,190 9,582 8,830 9,040
Total Dom. Cons. 169,813 166,892 171,482 169,582 171,405
Ending Stocks 35,144 34,389 39,859 37,537 38,882
Total Distribution 205,885 202,209 212,411 208,189 211,337
Table 8. China: Total Meals
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Total Meal (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 136,400 135,500 137,490 136,700 138,000
Extr. Rate, 999.9999
Beginning Stocks 710 710 937 981 1,005
Production 96,071 95,831 97,278 96,696 97,683
MY Imports 6,779 6,778 7,900 7,020 6,980
TOTAL SUPPLY 103,560 103,319 106,115 104,697 105,668
MY Exports 825 828 1,027 978 1,029
Industrial Dom. Cons. 1,827 2,235 1,827 2,165 2,165
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 99,971 99,275 102,408 100,549 101,593
Total Dom. Cons. 101,798 101,510 104,235 102,714 103,758
Ending Stocks 937 981 853 1,005 881
Total Distribution 103,560 103,319 106,115 104,697 105,668
Table 9. China: Total Oils
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Total Oils (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 135,200 134,400 136,200 135,600 136,900
Extr. Rate, 999.9999
Beginning Stocks 1,648 1,648 3,005 2,975 3,573
Production 29,289 29,354 29,495 29,613 29,896
MY Imports 10,615 10,595 10,550 10,650 10,810
TOTAL SUPPLY 41,552 41,597 43,050 43,238 44,279
MY Exports 164 169 251 243 244
Industrial Dom. Cons. 2,400 2,300 2,400 2,450 2,500
Food Use Dom. Cons. 35,983 35,153 37,172 35,772 36,468
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 1,000 0 1,200 1,300
Total Dom. Cons. 38,383 38,453 39,572 39,422 40,268
Ending Stocks 3,005 2,975 3,227 3,573 3,767
Total Distribution 41,552 41,597 43,050 43,238 44,279
Oilseeds PSD Tables

Table 10. China: Soybeans

PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oilseed, Soybean (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Area Planted 10,270 9,850 10,470 10,050 9,950
Area Harvested 10,244 9,850 10,470 10,050 9,950
Beginning Stocks 25,146 25,146 32,340 31,856 35,106
Production 20,284 19,400 20,840 19,700 19,600
MY Imports 104,500 104,500 105,000 103,000 103,000
Total Supply 149,930 149,046 158,180 154,556 157,706
MY Exports 90 90 100 150 150
Crush 96,000 96,000 98,000 97,000 98,000
Food Use Dom. Cons. 16,000 15,900 16,700 16,700 17,000
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 5,500 5,200 5,800 5,600 5,800
Total Dom. Cons. 117,500 117,100 120,500 119,300 120,800
Ending Stocks 32,340 31,856 37,580 35,106 36,756
Total Distribution 149,930 149,046 158,180 154,556 157,706
Table 11. China: Rapeseed
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oilseed, Rapeseed (1000 tons;1000 Ha)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Area Planted 7,267 7,350 7,400
Area Harvested 7,253 7,267 7,350 7,350 7,400
Beginning Stocks 868 868 2,609 2,208 2,078
Production 15,531 15,530 15,400 15,400 15,600
MY Imports 5,335 5,335 3,400 4,000 4,000
Total Supply 21,734 21,733 21,409 21,608 21,678
MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0
Crush 18,500 19,000 18,700 19,000 19,300
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 625 525 625 530 540
Total Dom. Cons. 19,125 19,525 19,325 19,530 19,840
Ending Stocks 2,609 2,208 2,084 2,078 1,838
Total Distribution 21,734 21,733 21,409 21,608 21,678
Table 12. China: Peanuts
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oilseed, Peanut (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Area Planted 4,800 4,720 4,820 4,820 4,850
Area Harvested 4,684 4,720 4,820 4,820 4,850
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 18,330 16,800 18,600 18,300 18,100
MY Imports 940 940 750 1,000 1,000
Total Supply 19,270 17,740 19,350 19,300 19,100
MY Exports 458 458 550 500 500
Crush 9,800 9,800 9,600 10,200 10,000
Food Use Dom. Cons. 7,850 6,482 8,100 7,500 7,500
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,162 1,000 1,100 1,100 1,100
Total Dom. Cons. 18,812 17,282 18,800 18,800 18,600
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 19,270 17,740 19,350 19,300 19,100
Table 13. China: Sunflower Seed
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oilseed, Sunflower seed (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Area Planted 950 950 960 960 970
Area Harvested 623 950 600 960 970
Beginning Stocks 248 248 195 325 353
Production 1,741 2,200 1,700 2,200 2,250
MY Imports 266 277 300 300 250
Total Supply 2,255 2,725 2,195 2,825 2,853
MY Exports 380 380 420 420 400
Crush 700 1,000 600 1,000 1,100
Food Use Dom. Cons. 900 920 900 952 965
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 80 100 80 100 100
Total Dom. Cons. 1,680 2,020 1,580 2,052 2,165
Ending Stocks 195 325 195 353 288
Total Distribution 2,255 2,725 2,195 2,825 2,853
Table 14. China: Cottonseed
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oilseed, Cottonseed (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Area Planted (Cotton) 3,150 3,200 3,000 2,950 2,950
Area Harvested (Cotton) 3,150 3,200 2,900 2,950 2,950
Seed to Lint Ratio 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 12,031 10,300 10,777 9,300 9,300
MY Imports 665 665 500 600 700
Total Supply 12,696 10,965 11,277 9,900 10,000
MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0
Crush 10,200 8,600 9,300 8,400 8,500
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 2,496 2,365 1,977 1,500 1,500
Total Dom. Cons. 12,696 10,965 11,277 9,900 10,000
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 12,696 10,965 11,277 9,900 10,000
Meal PSD Tables

Table 15. China: Soybean Meal

PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Meal, Soybean (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 96,000 96,000 98,000 97,000 98,000
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.792 0.792 0.792 0.792 0.792
Beginning Stocks 710 710 937 981 1,005
Production 76,032 76,032 77,616 76,824 77,616
MY Imports 40 40 50 50 60
Total Supply 76,782 76,782 78,603 77,855 78,681
MY Exports 795 795 1,000 950 1,000
Industrial Dom. Cons. 1,150 1,500 1,150 1,500 1,500
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 73,900 73,506 75,600 74,400 75,300
Total Dom. Cons. 75,050 75,006 76,750 75,900 76,800
Ending Stocks 937 981 853 1,005 881
Total Distribution 76,782 76,782 78,603 77,855 78,681
Table 16. China: Rapeseed Meal
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Meal, Rapeseed (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post
USDA Post USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate
Official Estimate Official Official
New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 18,500 19,000 18,700 19,000 19,300
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 10,917 11,210 11,035 11,210 11,387
MY Imports 2,030 2,029 2,500 2,100 2,000
Total Supply 12,947 13,239 13,535 13,310 13,387
MY Exports 24 24 20 20 20
Industrial Dom. Cons. 475 575 475 500 500
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 12,448 12,640 13,040 12,790 12,867
Total Dom. Cons. 12,923 13,215 13,515 13,290 13,367
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 12,947 13,239 13,535 13,310 13,387
Table 17. China: Peanut Meal
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Meal, Peanut (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 9,800 9,800 9,600 10,200 10,000
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 3,920 3,920 3,840 4,080 4,000
MY Imports 87 87 80 100 100
Total Supply 4,007 4,007 3,920 4,180 4,100
MY Exports 2 2 2 2 2
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 4,005 4,005 3,918 4,178 4,098
Total Dom. Cons. 4,005 4,005 3,918 4,178 4,098
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 4,007 4,007 3,920 4,180 4,100
Table 18. China: Sunflower Seed Meal
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Meal, Sunflower seed (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 700 1,000 600 1,000 1,100
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.546 0.545 0.545 0.545 0.545
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 382 545 327 545 599
MY Imports 2,955 2,955 3,500 3,000 3,000
Total Supply 3,337 3,500 3,827 3,545 3,599
MY Exports 4 4 5 4 5
Industrial Dom. Cons. 62 0 62 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 3,271 3,496 3,760 3,541 3,594
Total Dom. Cons. 3,333 3,496 3,822 3,541 3,594
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 3,337 3,500 3,827 3,545 3,599
Table 19. China: Cottonseed Meal
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Meal, Cottonseed (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 10,200 8,600 9,300 8,400 8,500
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.433 0.433 0.433 0.433 0.433
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 4,420 3,724 4,030 3,637 3,681
MY Imports 18 18 20 20 20
Total Supply 4,438 3,742 4,050 3,657 3,701
MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0
Industrial Dom. Cons. 140 160 140 165 165
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 4,298 3,582 3,910 3,492 3,536
Total Dom. Cons. 4,438 3,742 4,050 3,657 3,701
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 4,438 3,742 4,050 3,657 3,701
Table 20. China: Fish Meal
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Meal, Fish (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 1/2022 1/2023 1/2024
Catch for Reduction 1,200 1,100 1,290 1,100 1,100
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.333 0.364 0.333 0.364 0.364
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 400 400 430 400 400
MY Imports 1,649 1,649 1,750 1,750 1,800
Total Supply 2,049 2,049 2,180 2,150 2,200
MY Exports 0 3 0 2 2
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 2,049 2,046 2,180 2,148 2,198
Total Dom. Cons. 2,049 2,046 2,180 2,148 2,198
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 2,049 2,049 2,180 2,150 2,200
Table 21. China: Palm Kernel Meal
Commodity Meal, Palm Kernel (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post
USDA Post USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate
Official Estimate Official Official
New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 0 0 0 0 0
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 0 0 0 0 0
MY Imports 1,458 1,458 1,300 1,800 2,200
Total Supply 1,458 1,458 1,300 1,800 2,200
MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 1,458 1,458 1,300 1,800 2,200
Total Dom. Cons. 1,458 1,458 1,300 1,800 2,200
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 1,458 1,458 1,300 1,800 2,200
Oil PSD Tables

Table 22. China: Soybean Oil

PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oil, Soybean (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 96,000 96,000 98,000 97,000 98,000
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179
Beginning Stocks 387 387 874 819 1,132
Production 17,203 17,203 17,562 17,363 17,542
MY Imports 395 395 400 450 500
Total Supply 17,985 17,985 18,836 18,632 19,174
MY Exports 111 116 200 200 200
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 17,000 16,050 17,800 16,100 16,500
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 1,000 0 1,200 1,300
Total Dom. Cons. 17,000 17,050 17,800 17,300 17,800
Ending Stocks 874 819 836 1,132 1,174
Total Distribution 17,985 17,985 18,836 18,632 19,174
Table 23. China: Rapeseed Oil
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oil, Rapeseed (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 18,500 19,000 18,700 19,000 19,300
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Beginning Stocks 841 841 1,150 1,775 1,930
Production 7,215 7,410 7,293 7,410 7,527
MY Imports 1,998 1,978 2,000 1,700 1,700
Total Supply 10,054 10,229 10,443 10,885 11,157
MY Exports 4 4 3 5 5
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 8,900 8,450 9,000 8,950 9,200
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom. Cons. 8,900 8,450 9,000 8,950 9,200
Ending Stocks 1,150 1,775 1,440 1,930 1,952
Total Distribution 10,054 10,229 10,443 10,885 11,157
Table 24. China: Peanut Oil
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oil, Peanut (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 9,800 9,800 9,600 10,200 10,000
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 3,136 3,136 3,072 3,264 3,200
MY Imports 292 292 200 300 300
Total Supply 3,428 3,428 3,272 3,564 3,500
MY Exports 10 10 10 10 10
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 3,418 3,418 3,262 3,554 3,490
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom. Cons. 3,418 3,418 3,262 3,554 3,490
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 3,428 3,428 3,272 3,564 3,500
Table 25. China: Cotton Seed Oil
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oil, Cottonseed (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 10,200 8,600 9,300 8,400 8,500
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.146 0.145 0.146 0.145 0.145
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 1,484 1,247 1,353 1,218 1,233
MY Imports 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply 1,484 1,247 1,353 1,218 1,233
MY Exports 7 7 5 5 5
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 1,477 1,240 1,348 1,213 1,228
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom. Cons. 1,477 1,240 1,348 1,213 1,228
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 1,484 1,247 1,353 1,218 1,233
Table 26. China: Sunflower Seed Oil
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oil, Sunflower Seed (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 700 1,000 600 1,000 1,100
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.359 0.358 0.358 0.358 0.358
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 251 358 215 358 394
MY Imports 1,555 1,555 1,550 1,400 1,400
Total Supply 1,806 1,913 1,765 1,758 1,794
MY Exports 3 3 3 3 4
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 1,803 1,910 1,762 1,755 1,790
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom. Cons. 1,803 1,910 1,762 1,755 1,790
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 1,806 1,913 1,765 1,758 1,794
Table 27. China: Palm Oil
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oil, Palm (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Area Planted 0 0 0 0 0
Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0
Trees 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Stocks 420 420 981 381 511
Production 0 0 0 0 0
MY Imports 6,190 6,190 6,200 6,600 6,700
Total Supply 6,610 6,610 7,181 6,981 7,211
MY Exports 29 29 30 20 20
Industrial Dom. Cons. 2,400 2,300 2,400 2,450 2,500
Food Use Dom. Cons. 3,200 3,900 3,800 4,000 4,050
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom. Cons. 5,600 6,200 6,200 6,450 6,550
Ending Stocks 981 381 951 511 641
Total Distribution 6,610 6,610 7,181 6,981 7,211
Table 28. China: Coconut Oil
PSD Table
Country China, Peoples Republic of
Commodity Oil, Coconut (1000 tons)
2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Post Post Post
USDA USDA USDA
Estimate Estimate Estimate
Official Official Official
New New New
Market Year Begin 10/2022 10/2023 10/2024
Crush 0 0 0 0 0
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Production 0 0 0 0 0
MY Imports 185 185 220 200 210
Total Supply 185 185 220 200 210
MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0
Industrial Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Food Use Dom. Cons. 185 185 220 200 210
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. 0 0 0 0 0
Total Dom. Cons. 185 185 220 200 210
Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0
Total Distribution 185 185 220 200 210
Taxes & Duties Tables (Jan 01 to Dec 31, 2024)

Table 29. China: Oilseeds

M.F.N. Additional VAT ED
HS Code Description
(%) Duty for U.S. Rate % Rate %
12011000 Soybeans, seed 0 5 9
12019011 Yellow soybean non-GMO 3 30.5 9
12019019 Yellow soybean others 3 30.5 9
12019020 Black soybean 3 28 9
12019030 Green soybean 3 8 9
12019090 Other soybean 3 8 9
12023000 In shell peanut, seed 0 5 9
12024100 In shell peanut, other 15 25 9
12024200 Shelled peanut 15 40 9
12040000 Linseed 5 40 9 9
Peanut kernels, in airtight
20081110
containers 5 27.5 13 13
20081120 Roasted peanuts 5 20 13 13
20081130 Peanut butter 5 20 13 13
20081190 Other processed peanuts 5 30 13 9 or 13*
12051010 Low erucic acid rape seed, seed 0 5 9
Low erucic acid rape seed,
12051090
other 9 14 9
12059010 Other rapeseed, seed 0 5 9
12059090 Other rapeseed, other 9 14 9 9
12060010 Sunflower seeds, seed 0 0 9 9
12060090 Sunflower seeds, other 15 40 9 9
12072100 Cottonseeds for cultivation 0 5 9 9
+12072900 Cottonseeds, other 15 20 9 9
12074010 Sesame seeds for cultivation 0 5 9 9
12074090 Sesame seeds, other 10 15 9 9
Note: Note: VAT – Value Added Tax Rate; ED – Export Drawback Rate (full or partial VAT refund upon export)
Table 30. China: Oils
M.F.N. Additional VAT ED
HS Code Description
(%) Duty for U.S. Rate% Rate %
15071000 Crude soybean oil 9 34 9
15079000 Other soybean oil 9 34 9
15081000 Crude peanut oil 10 35 9
15089000 Other peanut oil 10 35 9
15092000 Extra virgin olive oil 10 35 9
15093000 Virgin olive oil 10 35 9
15094000 Other virgin olive oils 10 35 9
15099000 Olive oil, other 10 35 13
15111000 Palm oil, crude 9 14 9
15119010 Palm oil, liquid 9 14 9
15119020
01 Stearin (50-56 ºC) 8 7 9
15119020
02 Stearin (44-50 ºC) 8 13 9
15119090 Palm oil, other 9 14 13
15121100 Crude sunflower seed oil 9 34 9
15121900 Other sunflower seed oil 9 34 13
15122100 Crude cottonseed oil 10 15 9
15122900 Other cottonseed oil 10 20 13
15131100 Crude coconut oil 9 34 9
15131900 Other coconut oil 9 34 9
15132100 Crude palm kernel oil 9 14 9
15132900 Other palm kernel oil 9 14 13
Crude low erucic acid rape or
15141100 colza oil 9 34 9
Other crude low erucic acid rape
15141900 oil 9 14 9
15149110 Crude rape or colza oil 9 14 9
15149190 Crude mustard oil 9 14 9
15149900 Other rape oil 9 34 13
Note: Note: VAT – Value Added Tax Rate; ED – Export Drawback Rate
Table 31. China: Meals
Additional VAT ED
HS Code Description M.F.N. (%)
Duty for U.S. Rate% Rate %
12081000 Soy flour 9 14 13
12089000 Other 15 20 13 13
23012010 Fish meal 2 0 0
23025000 Legume sweepings 5 10 9
23040010 Soy meal, oil cake 5 0 9
23040090 Soy meal, other 5 30 9
23050000 Peanut meal 5 0 0
23061000 Cottonseed meal 5 0 0 9
23062000 Linseed meal 5 0 0 9
23063000 Sunflower seed meal 5 0 0 9
Low erucic acid
23064100 rapeseed meal 5 0 0 9
23064900 Other rapeseed meal 5 5 0 9
Cake of coconut or
23065000 copra 5 5 9 9
Oil residue cake and
solid residue of
endangered palm fruit or
23066000 10 kernel 5 5 9 0
Other palm fruit or
kernel oil cake and solid
23066000 90 residue 5 5 9 9
0 or 9
Other oilseed cakes
23069000 5 25 9 or 13*
Vegetable materials and
waste, vegetable 0 or 9
23080000 residues 5 5 9 or 13*
Note: VAT--Value Added Tax Rate; ED--Export Drawback Rate

* Different rates apply to sub-HS codes with 10 digitals; Additional Note: Additional duty for United States can
be excluded upon application by traders
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