Climate Change and its Impact on Agriculture

It is now well established that average air temperatures are increasing all over the world.
It appears that average temperatures are rising continuously. During the last century, global mean
temperature has risen by 0.85oC.The concentration of CO2 and other gases has increased
worldwide. These gases trap the heat from the sun. This process seems to be similar to what
happens in a green house. This process of global warming is called the green house effect.

Main Causes of climate change are:

1. Rapid industrialization
2. Combustion of fossil fuels
3. Deforestation
4. Increased number of vehicles
5. Ever-increasing human population

Green House Effect and Global Warming

The greenhouse effect is the retention of heat in the lower atmosphere due to absorption
and re-radiation by clouds and certain gases. The earth receives its energy from the sun as solar
radiation. Short-wave solar radiation received from the sun passes through the atmosphere with
little or no interference and warms the earth's surface. Long-wave thermal radiation emitted by
the surface of the earth is absorbed by a number of trace or "greenhouse" gases (GHGs). These
gases occur in small amounts in the atmosphere and reflect the longwave thermal radiation down
to the earth.

The amount of GHGs in the atmosphere can influence global temperatures. If these gases
were to increase, temperatures would rise. If they were to decrease, global temperatures would
cool. The greenhouse effect is a well understood phenomenon based on established scientific
principles. The earth's average surface temperature, for example, is warmer by about 33 oC than it
would be without the presence of these gases. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) present in the earth's
atmosphere include water vapour (H2O), Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide
(N2O), Nitrogen oxides (N0x), Ozone (O3), Carbon monoxide (CO) and Cholorofluorocarbons
(CFCs). As agriculture and animal husbandry developed, the world's population increased and
human society became more industrialised, the levels of some of these gases increased
significantly. Descriptions of the important GHGs and their sources are as follows :

Scientists have designated CO2 the benchmark GHG against which the properties of all
other GHGs are measured. Methane is a very short-lived gas, consequently emissions from this
gas would have their impact on climate change during the first few decades after they are
released. Nitrous oxides and CFCs contribute to the greenhouse effect for hundreds of years
because they are most stable and decompose very slowly in the atmosphere. The ten leading
contributor nations of GHG emissions are the USA, the former USSR, Brazil, China, India,
Japan, Germany, UK, Indonesia and France.

Increase in atmospheric levels of CO2 and other GHGs can have far reaching effects.
They include increase in average temperatures and changes in precipitation, number of frost-free
days and the frequency and severity of storms. There is also a likelihood that ocean levels may
rise. Rise in sea level would be most injurious to low-lying islands. This would further lead to
not only loss of precious land but also force people to flee from islands such as some pacific
Atolls and Maldives and from fertile delta areas in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Burma,
China, Pakistan, Nigeria and the Plata and Orinoco deltas in South America.
 Green plants utilise CO2 during photosynthesis. Consequently increased levels of GHGs
can have potentially significant effects on the growth and survival of green plants including
trees. In addition changes in climate could affect the distribution of animals and plants and the
processes involved in soil formation. These effects could have serious implications in the future
for agriculture, fisheries and forestry.

The introduction of more efficient cooking stoves and industrial processes could reduce
fuel wood requirements by 25-70% at a low investment cost. This can also contribute to reduced
GHG emissions. In addition, the use of better quality biomass in terms of size, moisture content
and heating value, if available, can contribute to heating efficiencies and reduced GHG output.
As the forests act as sinks of CO 2, so they must be conserved to enhance the capacity to fix and
store carbon. The development and expansion of non-wood forest products would provide
increased incentives to maintain and protect forests. This could have the added desirable effect of
increased carbon storage.

Global warming can be understood by differentiating natural green house effect from an
anthropogenic green house effect. The natural green house effect is a normal result of the
presence of a blanket of air around the earth, whereas, the anthropogenic green house effect is
the result of the accumulation of trace gases in the air from human activities. It is well known
fact that there would have been no life on earth without the existence of natural green house
effect.

Impacts of Climate Change

General circulation models (GCM) have been developed by using sophisticated computer
programmes. This is one of the best methods to estimate the impacts of climate change. As a
basis for predicting future global impacts, most models assume that the concentration of green
house gases is likely to double than their present level. Most of the models predict an average
global warming upto 4.20C and an overall increase in the precipitation of about 10 per cent by
the year 2050. It is also expected that global warming will create more active hydrological cycle,
increasing cloudiness as well as precipitation.

If the average global temperature continue to rise, then two important potential impacts of
global warming include the effects on sea levels and on the ecosystems. Recent estimates suggest
that global sea level has risen by about 15cm during the 20 th century, with most of the rise
occurred since 1930. Some scientists believe that because of green house warming, average sea
level may rise by at least 30cm and as much as 1.4m by the year 2030. This is likely to cause
extensive instability in the economic and social life in the coastal areas throughout the world.

Factors Affecting Sea Level

Following factors may be responsible for the rise in sea level:

i. Thermal expansion of sea water

ii. Melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets
iii. Changes in the rainfall pattern and runoff
iv. Changes in the rate of evaporation

Ozone Hole
 Ozone is pollutant at the ground level. The presence of ozone between 10 and 50 km
height plays a crucial role for the life on earth. The ozone layer absorbs most of the harmful
ultraviolet radiation, thus protecting the plants and animals. The depletion of ozone in the
atmosphere has been increasing since 1985 due to the higher concentration of green house gases.
Atmospheric scientists discovered a large ozone hole over Antarctica. Since then, public
awareness and concern about the depletion of ozone has grown all over the world.

It is well known fact that ozone serves as a protective shield against ultraviolet radiation.
If the ozone concentration decreases in the atmosphere, more ultraviolet radiation will reach the
earth’s surface. Increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation may lead to skin cancer, eye cataracts
and suppression of immune system response. Likewise, many plant species and aquatic
organisms may be adversely affected due to increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation.

The depletion of ozone may be attributed to the presence of chlorofluorocarbons in the

troposphere. These gases remain in the troposphere for a longer period and later on they are
drifted up in the stratosphere, where these are broken down by ultraviolet radiation. This reaction
releases chlorine gas. Chlorine gas is most destructive for the ozone molecules. One chlorine
molecule can destroy several hundred thousand ozone molecules before it leaves the
stratosphere.

The depletion of ozone can be minimised by decreasing the use of chlorofluorocarbons.

Therefore, a complete elimination of all ozone-depleting substances should be set as a goal. But
the total ban of CFCs use would interfere life styles in many developed countries.

Major Contributors of Global Warming and Climate Change

Table. Common green house gases, their origin, rate of build up in the Atmosphere and their
contribution towards global warming (Manga et al, 2004).

Gas Principal source Current Contribution

rate of to global
annual warming
increase

CO2 Fossil fuel burning, Deforestation 0.5% 55%

Chloro-Fluoro carbons Refrigerants and blowing solvents 4.0% 24%

Methane Paddy gas leakage, Enteric fermentation 0.9% 15%

Nitrous oxide Biomass burning, Fertilizer use and fossil fuel 0.6% 6%
consumption

Global warming may be referred to as global climate change. It is unfortunate that man has been
treating the atmosphere as a dumping ground for the pollutants. Moreover, we have not been able
to predict the adverse impact of the concentration of these pollutants in the atmosphere. Global
warming has emerged as the most serious environmental threat of the 21 st century. Data collected
so far indicate that the temperature of the earth has increased by 0.5 0C over the past century,
mainly due to the accumulation of green house gases. Initially CO 2 thought to be exclusively
responsible for green house effect, is now known to cause only half the problem. The rest comes
from other gases like chlorofluoro carbons, nitrous oxides and methane. Carbon dioxide is added
to the atmosphere both naturally and unnaturally. Naturally through volcanoes and unnaturally as
a result of human activity. About 200 years ago, CO 2 was added to the atmosphere by only
natural processes sufficiently to be absorbed by forests and oceans. But after the
industrialisation, coal burning factories started releasing CO 2 faster than the forests and oceans
absorb CO2. The continuously flooded rice fields emit methane because anaerobic conditions
favour methane production.

The concentration of CO2 has increased because of widespread removal of forests.

Carbon dioxide, which was 295ppm in 1900, has now reached at 370ppm. Carbon dioxide is
increasing at the rate of 1.5ppm per year (Lee and Dodson, 1996). If the trend of increase
continues at this level, it would reach 600ppm by 2100 and even may reach 1300ppm by 2200
(Harvey and Danney, 2000).

Carbon dioxide has the capability to absorb solar radiation. Therefore, the increased
amount of CO2 has the tendency to absorb more and more solar radiation. The accumulated solar
radoiation absorbed by the atmosphere has made the earth warmer. Even the water vapours of the
atmosphere near the earth can absorb the long wave radiation emitted by the earth. Because of
the absorption of radiation, the atmospheric temperature has increased over the last few decades
which may disturb the hydrological cycle of the earth.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

There are number of natural processes which control the exchange of carbon between the
atmosphere and the main reservoir of the plants, the biota, the soil and the ocean. There is a
balance in carbon between terrestrial biota and the atmosphere. Similarly, a balance is
maintained between carbon dioxide that is drawn in the ocean domain through various chemical
and biological processes and the carbon dioxide given out to the atmosphere, again by several
chemical and biological processes (Loggett, 1990).

Agriculture is strongly influenced by changes in climate. This increase in the atmospheric

carbon dioxide, could lead to enhanced green house effect, resulting rise in global temperature.
This may lead to several unpredictable climatic changes, but main climatic variables important
for crop plants are:

a. Concentration of carbon dioxide

b. Temperature
c. Water
d. Solar radiation

The rising temperature, carbon dioxide and uncertainties in rainfall associated with
climate change may have serious direct and indirect consequences on crop production and hence
food security.

Carbon dioxide and Agriculture

It is well established that carbon dioxide has increased from 280ppm in 1860 to 340ppm
by 1981. It has been estimated that the increasing trend of carbon dioxide is likely to continue for
the coming years. The increase in carbon dioxide can be regarded as an atmospheric pollution
which is likely to generate adverse climatic implications, however, increased carbon dioxide
levels are likely to be beneficial to agriculture. The agricultural production will depend upon
other weather related factors such as change in rainfall amount, rainfall pattern and length of the
growing season. It has been observed that doubling of CO 2 can increase photosynthesis between
30 to 60 per cent.

Temperature and Crops

Global warming has increased the global temperatures which adversely affect the crop
growth. The adverse effect of 10C rise in temperature can be compensated by increasing the
CO2concentration upto 600ppm. It has been found that cumulative temperature above minimum
growing temperature is an important determinant of crop phenological development. For annual
crops, warmer temperature would accelerate the crop development and decrease the period
of the growth. The shortened growth period would result reduction in grain yield (Ellis et al,
1990). The anticipated increase in temperature under global warming conditions can lead to
spikelet sterility in rice, loss of pollen viability of maize, reduced formation of tubers and their
bulking in potatoes for the areas near critical thresholds. A 2 oC increase in temperature reduces
the grain yield of wheat and rice by 10-20% due to shorter duration of crop growth. Increase in
temperature also increases the rate of evapotranspiration in crops.

The interactive effect of enhanced levels of both temperature and CO2 reveals that
adverse effect due to increase in temperature upto 1.0oC is compensated by enhanced
concentration of CO2 above 600 ppm, but increase in temperature beyond 1.0oC reduces crop
yield even at CO2 conc. of 600 ppm.

Moisture/Rainfall and Crops

Crop growth depends upon the amount of rainfall / moisture and its distribution
throughout the life cycle of a crop. Therefore, consistent availability of moisture throughout the
crop growth is critical. Under global warming conditions, the hydrological cycle is expected to
intensify with higher evaporation, air humidity and precipitation. The water requirements of the
crops would increase under higher temperature conditions. Many global studies have indicated
that evaporation demand is likely to exceed the increased precipitation in the tropical areas.
Increased temperature along with humidity also increases the infestation of weeds and diseases.

The effects of global warming on agricultural productivity can be summarised as follows:

1) Reduced crop duration

2) Increased crop respiration rates
3) Reduced crop yield
4) Reduced number and size of grains
5) Effect on survival and distribution of pest population
6) Hasten nutrient mineralisation in soils
7) Decreased fertilizer use efficiency
8) Increased rate of evapotranspiration

Mitigation Strategies

1. Management practices to increase fertiliser use efficiency i.e. fertiliser placement /

scehules
2. Increase fuel efficiency in agricultural machines
3. Improvement if irrigation efficiency of crop plants
 4. Evolving suitable crop management practices like cultivation of short duration,
temperature resistant and low water requirement varieties
5. Creation and strengthening of C sinks in the soil
6. Stabilising atmospheric concentration of green house gases
7. Increasing productivity of existing farm area and reducing deforestation and paddy
plantation which contribute to CH4 emmission
8. Production of biofuels to replace fossil fuels
9. Manipulation of crop microclimate by means such as wind breaks, mulches to reduce the
effects of climate change

No doubt, the climate change will affect the crop productivity but due to the complexity
of crop environment interactions, a multidisciplinary approach to the problem is required in
which plant breeders, crop physiologists, agrometeorologists and agronomists need to interact for
finding long term solutions for sustaining agricultural production.