STAT2800U: Lecture 3

CHAPTER 2: PROBABILITY
A chance experiment, also called a random experiment, is simply
an activity or situation whose outcomes, to some degree, depend on
chance. To decide whether a given activity qualifies as a chance
experiment, ask yourself the question, Will I get exactly the same
result if I repeat the experiment more than once? If the answer is
“no”, then the experiment qualifies as a chance experiment.

Example:

Basic Ideas (Section 2.1, page 48)

A PROBABILITY is a number between 0 and 1, which measures how

likely an event is to occur.

The SAMPLE SPACE (S) is the collection of all possible outcomes

that can occur in an experiment. The identification of all the possible
outcomes in S is often the first step in determining probabilities.

An EVENT is a subset of the sample space S. Events are usually

denoted by upper case letters (A,B,C,…) and the probability of an
event E is denoted by P(E).

If all the outcomes in the experiment are “equally likely”, then the
probability of an event is given by:

P(Event) = # of outcomes in the event / # of outcomes in S

Example: A “fair” die is tossed. List the sample space S and the
probability of rolling a 4.

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In many experiments we can use a “tree diagram” to list the possible

outcomes of the experiment (i.e. the Sample Space S) and the
probabilities of each outcome.

Example: A fair four sided die is rolled twice.

(a) Use a tree diagram to list the sample space S.

(b) List and find the probability of each of the following events.
A = “a sum of 4 or less”
B = “the second roll is a 2”

Combining Events and Probabilities

Another visual device, the Venn Diagram, is especially useful for

depicting relationships between events. This is what a possible Venn
diagram looks like:

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Shaded areas of the Venn diagram represent probabilities of certain

events. I’ll explain this further in a minute, but first:

Definition:
For a chance experiment and any two events A and B

1. The event A or B (A union B) consists of all simple

events that are contained in either A or B. A or B can
also be described as the event that at least one of A or B
occurs.
2. The event A and B (A intersection B) consists of all
simple events common to both A and B. A and B can
be described as the event that both A and B occur.
3. The event A`, called the complement of A, consists of
all simple events that are not contained in A. A` is the
event that A does not occur.

Example: For the above example, we listed the sample space of

rolling a fair four sided die and listed the probability of the following 2
events.
A = “a sum of 4 or less”

B = “the second roll is a 2”

Find P( A B) :

Venn diagram of P( A B) :

Find P( A B) :
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Venn Diagram of P( A B) :

Find P( A):

Venn diagram of P( A):

Find P( A B) : (it might be easier to look at the Venn first)

Venn diagram of P( A B) :

Find P( A B) :

Venn diagram of P( A B) :

Using the information above, fill in the numeric probabilities in each of

the shaded regions:

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Example: Given three events (A, B, C), draw a Venn Diagram for
P( A B) C   :

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive (or disjoint) if their

intersection is empty, that is they have no outcomes in common.
Practically speaking, this means that A and B cannot both occur in a
given experiment. This is written as
( A B)  

Venn diagram for mutually exclusive events ->

Example: The events A, B and C are given by

A = {(11,18),(11,19),(11,20),(11,21),(12,18),(12,19),(12,20)}
B = { (9,18),(10,18),(11,18),(12,18)}
C = {(9,19),(10,18)}
Which pair of events would be mutually exclusive?

Axioms of Probability

The Axioms of Probability

1. Let S be a sample space. Then P(S)=1.

2. For any event A, 0 P( A) 1.

3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

P( A B) P( A) P(B). More generally, if A1 , A2 ,... are

mutually exclusive events, then

P( A1 A2 ...) P( A1 ) P( A2 ) ....
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Example: A target on a test firing range consists of a bull’s-eye with

two concentric rings around it. A projectile is fired at the target. The
probability that it hits the bull’s-eye is 0.10, the probability that it hits
the inner ring is 0.25, and the probability that it hits the outer ring is
1.45. What is the probability that the projectile hits the target? What
is the probability that is misses the target?

Sample Spaces with Equally Likely Outcomes

A population from which an item is sampled at random can be

thought of as a sample space with equally likely outcomes. For
example, rolling a fair die, sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} where
each of these outcomes has an equal chance of being rolled.

Example: A sample of 1000 persons screened for a certain disease

is distributed according to height and disease status resulting from a
clinical exam as follows:
DISEASE STATUS

None Mild Moderate Severe Totals

|-------|---------|------------|----------|
Tall | 122 | 78 | 139 | 61 | 400
|-------|---------|------------|----------|
HEIGHT Medium | 74 | 51 | 90 | 35 | 250
|-------|---------|------------|----------|
Short | 104 | 71 | 121 | 54 | 350
|-------|---------|------------|----------|
300 200 350 150 1000

(a) A person is sampled at random from this population. What

is the probability that he/she is short?

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(b) What is the probability that he/she is either short or has a

severe disease?

(c) What would you estimate from the above table to be the
probability of being medium or short in height and having
moderate or severe disease status?

Note: Many different types of probability questions can be

asked with the above table.

The Addition Rule

Do part (b) in the previous example using the addition rule.

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Example: Find the probability that a single card drawn at random is

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either a queen or a diamond. (Given: P(Q D)  )
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Example: In a process that manufactures aluminum cans, the

probability that a can has a flaw on its side is 0.02, the probability that
a can has a flaw on the top is 0.03, and the probability that a can has
a flaw on both the side and the top is 0.01.

(a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen can has a flaw?

(b) What is the probability that a randomly chosen can has no

flaw?

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Example: Bag A contains 10 marbles of which 2 are red and 8 are

black. Bag B contains 12 marbles of which 4 are red and 8 are black.
A ball is drawn at random from each bag.
a) Draw a probability tree diagram to show all the outcomes in the
experiment.

b) Find the probability that:

(i) both are red.
(ii) both are black.
(iii) one black and one red.
(iv) at least one red.

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Test your knowledge:

1. Find C intersect D if:

C: {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12}
D: {numbers divisible by 3 from 1 to 12}

a) {3, 6, 9, 12}
b) {6, 9, 12}
c) {2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12}
d) {6, 12}
e) {2, 4, 8, 10}

2. The probability that the Red River will flood in any given year has
been estimated from 200 years of historical data to be one in four.
This means:

(a) The Red River will flood every four year.

(b) In the next 100 years, the Red River will flood exactly 25 times.
(c) In the last 100 years, the Red River flooded exactly 25 times.
(d) In the next 100 years, the Red River will flood about 25 times.
(e) In the next 100 years, it is very likely that the Red River will flood
exactly 25 times.

3. The chances that you will be ticketed for illegal parking on campus
are about 1/3. During the last nine days, you have illegally parked
every day and have NOT been ticketed (you lucky duck!). Today, on
the 10th day, you again decide to park illegally. The chances that you
will be caught are:

(a) greater than 1/3 because you were not caught in the last nine
days.
(b) less than 1/3 because you were not caught in the last nine days.
(c) still equal to 1/3 because the last nine days do not affect the
probability.
(d) equal to 1/10 because you were not caught in the last nine days.
(e) equal to 9/10 because you were not caught in the last nine days.

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4. For the experiment described, write the indicated event in set

notation.

A coin is tossed three times. Represent the event "the first toss
comes up tails" as a subset of the sample space.
(a) {hhh, hht, hth, htt, thh, tht, tth, ttt}
(b) {thh, tht, tth, ttt}
(c) {tails, heads, heads}
(d) {thh, tht, tth}

5. Let U = {q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y, z}; A = {q, s, u, w, y}; B = {q, s, y, z};

and C = {v, w, x, y, z}. List the members of the set ( A B) 

(a) {r, s, t, u, v, w, x, z}
(b) {s, u, w}
(c) {r, t, v, x}
(d) {t, v, x}

6. Suppose P(C) = .048, P(M ∩ C) = .044, and P(M C) = .524.

Find P(M' C')

(a)0.004
(b)0.524
(c)0.476
(d)0.956

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