9 Probability

Types of Events:
Let's Learn
Elementary Event: An event consisting
• Basic Terminologies of a single outcome is called an elementary
event.
• Concept of probability
• Addition Theorem Certain Event: The sample space is called
the certain event if all possible outcomes are
• Conditional probability
favourable outcomes. i.e. the event consists of
• Multiplication Theorem the whole sample space.
• Baye's Theorem
Impossible Event: The empty set is called
• Odds impossible event as no possible outcome is
favorable.
Let's Recall Algebra of Events:
Events are subsets of the sample space.
9.1.1 Basic Terminologies Algebra of events uses operations in set theory
Random Experiment : Suppose an to define new events in terms of known events.
experiment having more than one outcome. Union of Two Events: Let A and B be
All possible results are known but the actual two events in the sample space S. The union
result cannot be predicted such an experiment of A and B is denoted by A∪B and is the set
is called a random experiment. of all possible outcomes that belong to at least
Outcome: A possible result of random one of A and B.
experiment is called a possible outcome of the Ex. Let S = Set of all positive integers
experiment. not exceeding 50;
Sample space: The set of all possible Event A = Set of elements of S that are
outcomes of a random experiment is called the divisible by 6; and
sample space. The sample space is denoted by
S or Greek letter omega (Ω). The number of Event B = Set of elements of S that are
elements in S is denoted by n(S). A possible divisible by 9. Find A∪B
outcome is also called a sample point since it Solution : A = {6,12,18,24,30,36,42,48}
is an element in the sample space.
B = {9,18,27,36,45}
Event: A subset of the sample space is
∴ A∪B = {6,9,12,18,24,27,30,36,42,45, 48} is
called an event.
the set of elements of S that are divisible by
Favourable Outcome: An outcome that 6 or 9.
belongs to the specified event is called a
Exhaustive Events: Two events A and B
favourable outcome.
in the sample space S are said to be exhaustive
if A∪B = S.

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 Example: Consider the experiment of Event B = set of elements of S that are
throwing a die and noting the number on the divisible by 13.
top. Then A = {8,16,24,32,40,48},
Let S be the sample space
B = {13,26,39}
∴ S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
∴ A∩B = φ because no element of S is
Let, A be the event that this number does divisible by both 8 and 13.
not exceed 4, and
Note: If two events A and B are mutually
B be the event that this number is not exclusive and exhaustive, then they are called
smaller than 3. complementary events.
Then A = {1,2,3,4} B = {3,4,5,6}
Symbolically, A and B are complementary
and therefore, A∪B = {1,2,3,4,5,6} = S events if A∪B = S and A∩B = φ.
∴ Events A and B are exhaustive. Notation: Complement of an event A is
Intersection of Two Events: Let A and denoted by A', A or Ac. The following table
B be two events in the sample space S. The shows how the operations of complement,
intersection of A and B is the event consisting union, and intersection can be combined to
of outcomes that belong to both the events A define more events.
and B.
Operation Interpretation
Example, Let S = Set of all positive
integers not exceeding 50, A', A or Ac Not A.
Event A = Set of elements of S that are A∪B At least, one of A and B
divisible by 3, and
A∩B Both A and B
Event B = Set of elements of S that are
divisible by 5. (A'∩B) ∪ (A∩B') Exactly one of A and B
Then A = {3,6,9,12,15,18,21,24,27,30,33, (A'∩B') = (A∪B)' Neither A nor B
36,39,42,45,48},
B = {5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45,50} SOLVED EXAMPLES:
Ex. 1: Describe the sample space of the
∴ A∩B = {15,30,45} is the set of
experiment when a coin and a die are thrown
elements of S that are divisible by both 3
simultaneously.
and 5.
Mutually Exclusive Events: Event A Solution : Sample space S = {(H,1), (H,2), (H,3),
and B in the sample space S are said to be (H,4), (H,5), (H,6), (T,1), (T,2), (T,3), (T,4),
mutually exclusive if they have no outcomes (T,5), (T,6)}
in common. In other words, the intersection of Ex. 2: Sunita and Samrudhi who live in Mumbai
mutually exclusive events is empty. Mutually wish to go on holiday to Delhi together.
exclusive events are also called disjoint events. They can travel to Delhi from Mumbai either
Example: Let S = Set of all positive by car or by train or plane and on reaching
integers not exceeding 50, Delhi they can go for city-tour either by bus
or Taxi. Describe the sample space, showing
Event A = set of elements of S that are all the combined outcomes of different ways
divisible by 8, and they could complete city-tour from Mumbai.

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Solution : Sample space 9.1.4 Probability of an Event:
S = {(car, bus), (car, taxi), (train, bus), (train, The probability of an event A is defined as
taxi), (plane, bus), (plane, taxi)}
n(A)
Ex. 3: Three coins are tossed. Events E1, E2, E3 P(A) =
n(S)
and E4 are defined as follows.
Where,
E1 : Occurence of at least two heads.
E2 : Occurence of at least two tails. n(A) = number of outcomes favorable for
event A,
E3 : Occurence of at most one head.
E4 : Occurence of two heads. n(S) = number of all possible outcomes.
Describe the sample space and events E1, E2,
E3 and E4. 9.1.5 Elementary Properties of Probabilty:
Find E1∪E4, E3'. Also check whether 1) A' is complement of A and therefore
i) E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive P(A') = 1 − P(A)
ii) E2 and E3 are equal 2) For any event A in S, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
Solution : Sample space 3) For the impossible event φ, P(φ) = 0
S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, 4) For the certain event S, P(S) = 1
TTT}
E1: {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH} 5) If A1 and A2 two mutually exclusive events
then P(A1 ∪ A2) = P(A1) + P(A2)
E2: {HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
E3: {HTT, THT, TTH, TTT} 6) If A ⊆ B, then P(A) ≤ P(B) and
E4: {HHT, HTH, THH,} P(A'∩B) = P(B) – P(A)

E1∪E4 = {HTT, HTH, THH, HHH, HHT} 7) Addition theorem: For any two events A and
B of a sample space S,
E3 = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}
i) E1∩E2 = {} = ϕ P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)
∴ E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive. 8) For any two events A and B,
ii) E2 and E3 are equal. P(A∩B') = P(A) − P(A∩B)

9.1.2 Concept of Probability: 9) For any three events A, B and C of a sample

A random experiment poses uncertainty space S,
regarding the actual result of the experiment, even P(A∪B∪C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A∩B)
though all possible outcomes are already known. – P(B∩C) – (P(A∩C) + P(A∩B∩C)
The classical definition of probability is based on
the assumption that all possible outcomes of an 10) If A1, A2, ......, Am are mutually exclusive
experiment are equally likely. events in S, then P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪, ...... ∪Am
= P(A1) + P(A2) + .... + P(Am)
9.1.3 Equally likely outcomes:
Remark: Consider a finite sample space S
All possible outcomes of a random
with n finite elements.
experiment are said to be equally likely if none
of them can be preferred over others.

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 S = {a1, a2, a3, ... an}. Let A1, A2, A3, ... An be ii) Since
elementary events given by Ai = {ai} with P(S) = P(A∪B∪C)
probability P(Ai). We have
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) [Property 10]
P(S) = P(A1) + P(A2) +.... + P(An) = 1 ...(I)
= 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.2 = 1.2 > 1
When all elementary events given by Ai
(i = 1, 2, 3, .... n) are equally likely, that is ∴ P(A), P(B) and P(C) cannot represent
P(A1) = P(A2) = ... = P(An), then from (I), we probability assignment.
have P(Ai) = 1/n, i = 1, 2,..... n
Ex. 2) One card is drawn at random from a pack
If A is any event made up of m such of 52 cards. What is the probability that it is
elementary events, i.e. a King or Queen?
A = A1∪A2∪A3∪ ... ∪Am, then using property Solution:
10, we have
Random Experiment = One card is drawn
P(A) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) +.... + P(Am) at random from a pack of 52 cards
1 1 1 ∴ n(S) = 52C1 = 52.
=( ) + ( ) +... +( ) (m times)
n n n Let event A: Card drawn is King
m n (A) and event B: Card drawn is Queen.
∴ P(A) = = .... (II)
n n (S) Since pack of 52 cards contains, 4 king cards
∴ P(A) = (Number of favourable outcomes from which any one king card can be drawn
for the occurrence of event A)/ (Total number in 4C1 = 4 ways. ∴ n(A) = 4
of distinct possible outcomes in the sample n (A) 4
space S) ∴ P(A) = =
n (S) 52

Similarly, a pack of 52 cards contains, 4

SOLVED EXAMPLES queen cards from which any one queen card
can be drawn in 4C1 = 4 ways. ∴ n(B) = 4
Ex. 1) If A∪B∪C = S (the sample space) and A, B n (B) 4
and C are mutually exclusive events, can the ∴ P(B) = =
n (S) 52
following represent probability assignment?
Since A and B are mutually exclusive events
i) P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.7, P(C) = 0.1
∴ required probability P(king or queen)
ii) P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.6, P(C) = 0.2
4 4 2
Solution: = P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) = + =
52 52 13
i) Since P(S) = P(A∪B∪C)
Ex. 3: Five employees in a company of 20 are
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) [Property 10]
graduates. If 3 are selected out of 20 at
= 0.2 + 0.7 + 0.1 = 1 random. What is the probability that
and 0≤ P(A), P(B), P(C) ≤ 1 i) they are all graduates?
∴ The given values can represent the ii) there is at least one graduate among them?
probability assignment.

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 Solution : Out of 20 employees, any 3 are to letters X, S, O and R which can be arranged
be selected in 20C3 ways. among themselves in 4! = 24 different ways.
∴ n(S) = 20C3 where S is the sample space. After this is done, two letters T and Y can be
arranged among themselves in 2! = 2 ways.
Let event A: All 3 selected employees are
Therefore, by fundamental principle, total
graduates.
number of arrangements in which T and Y
Out of 5 graduate any 3 can be selected in are always together is 24 × 2 = 48.
C3 ways.
5
48 2
5
C3 10 ∴ required probability P(A) = =
∴ required probability P(A) = 20 = 120 5
C3 1140
1 b) Event B: An arrangement begins with T and
= ends with Y.
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Remaining 3 letters in the middle can be
Let event B: At least one graduate employee
arranged in 3! = 6 different ways.
is selected. 6 1
∴ required probability P(B) = =
∴ B' is the event that no graduate employee 120 120
is selected.
Since out of 20 employee, 5 are graduates, EXERCISE 9.1
therefore from the remaining 15 non-
graduate any 3 non-graduates can be selected 1) There are four pens: Red, Green, Blue and
in 15C3 ways. Purple in a desk drawer of which two pens
15
are selected at random one after the other
C3 455 91 with replacement. State the sample space
∴ P(B') = 20 = =
C3 1140 228 and the following events.
a) A : Selecting at least one red pen.
∴ required probability
b) B : Two pens of the same color are not
91 137 selected.
P(B) = 1 − P(B') = 1 − =
228 228 2) A coin and a die are tossed simultaneously.
Enumerate the sample space and the
Ex. 4) The letters of the word STORY be arranged following events.
randomly. Find the probability that a) A : Getting a Tail and an Odd number
a) T and Y are together. b) B : Getting a prime number
b) arrangment begins with T and end with c) C : Getting a head and a perfect square.
Y. 3) Find n(S) for each of the following random
Solution: experiments.
a) From an urn containing 5 gold and 3
The word STORY consists of 5 different silver coins, 3 coins are drawn at random
letters, which can be arranged among
b) 5 letters are to be placed into 5 envelopes
themselves in 5! ways. such that no envelop is empty.
∴ n(S) = 5! = 120 c) 6 books of different subjects arranged
a) Event A: T and Y are a together. on a shelf.

Let us consider T and Y as a single letter say d) 3 tickets are drawn from a box containing
X. Therefore, now we have four different 20 lottery tickets.

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4) Two fair dice are thrown. State the sample 9) From a bag containing 10 red, 4 blue and
space and write the favorable outcomes for 6 black balls, a ball is drawn at random. Find
the following events. the probability of drawing
a) A : Sum of numbers on two dice is a) a red ball.
divisible by 3 or 4. b) a blue or black ball.
b) B : Sum of numbers on two dice is 7. c) not a black ball.
c) C : Odd number on the first die.
d) D : Even number on the first die. 10) A box contains 75 tickets numbered 1 to 75.
A ticket is drawn at random from the box.
e) Check whether events A and B are
Find the probability that,
mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
a) Number on the ticket is divisible by 6
f) Check whether events C and D are
mutually exclusive and exhaustive. b) Number on the ticket is a perfect square
c) Number on the ticket is prime
5) A bag contains four cards marked as 5, 6, 7
and 8. Find the sample space if two cards are d) Number on the ticket is divisible by 3
drawn at random and 5
a) with replacement 11) What is the chance that a leap year, selected
b) without replacement at random, will contain 53 sundays?.

6) A fair die is thrown two times. Find the 12) Find the probability of getting both red
probability that balls, when from a bag containing 5 red and
a) sum of the numbers on them is 5 4 black balls, two balls are drawn, i) with
b) sum of the numbers on them is at least 8 replacement ii) without replacement
c) first throw gives a multiple of 2 and 13) A room has three sockets for lamps. From a
second throw gives a multiple of 3. collection 10 bulbs of which 6 are defective.
d) product of numbers on them is 12. At night a person selects 3 bulbs, at random
7) Two cards are drawn from a pack of 52 and puts them in sockets. What is the
cards. Find the probability that probability that i) room is still dark ii) the
a) one is a face card and the other is an ace room is lit
card 14) Letters of the word MOTHER are arranged
b) one is club and the other is a diamond at random. Find the probability that in the
c) both are from the same suit. arrangement
d) both are red cards a) vowels are always together
e) one is a heart card and the other is a non b) vowels are never together
heart card
c) O is at the begining and end with T
8) Three cards are drawn from a pack of 52 d) starting with a vowel and end with a
cards. Find the chance that
consonant
a) two are queen cards and one is an ace
card 15) 4 letters are to be posted in 4 post boxes. If
b) at least one is a diamond card any number of letters can be posted in any of
c) all are from the same suit the 4 post boxes, what is the probability that
d) they are a king, a queen and a jack each box contains only one letter?

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16) 15 professors have been invited for a round n(A) = x, number of favourable outcomes
table conference by Vice chancellor of a for the occurrence of event A.
university. What is the probability that two n(B) = y, number of favourable outcomes for
particular professors occupy the seats on the occurrence of event B.
either side of the Vice Chancellor during the
n(A∩B) = z, the number of favourable
conference.
outcomes for the occurrence of both event A and
17) A bag contains 7 black and 4 red balls. If 3 B.
n (A) x n (B) y
balls are drawn at random find the probability ∴ P(A) = ( ) = , P(B) = =
nS n n (S) n
that (i) all are black (ii) one is black and two
are red. n(A I B) z
P(A∩B) = n(S) = n
9.2.1 Addition theorem for two events
For any two events A and B of a sample
As all outcomes are equally likely.
space S, P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B). This
From Venn diagram
is the property (7) that we had seen earlier. Since
it is very important we give its proof. The other
properties can also be proved in the same way.
This can be proved by two methods
a) Using the definition of probability.
b) Using Venn diagram.
We assume that all outcomes are equally
likely and sample space S contains finite
number of outcomes.
(a) Using the definition of probability:
Fig. 9.1
If A and B are any two events, then event
A∪B can be decomposed into two mutually n(A∪B) = (x−z) + z + (y−z)
exclusive events A∩B' and B ∴ n(A∪B) = x + y – z
i.e. A∪B = (A∩B')∪B n(A∪B) = n(A) + n(B) – n(A∩B)
∴ P(A∪B) = P[(A∩B')∪B] Dividing both sides by n(S), we get
= P(A∩B') + P(B)
[By property 10] n(A U B) n (A) n (B) n(A I B)
n(S) = + – n(S)
n (S) n (S)
= P(A) – P(A∩B) + P(B)
[By property 8] ∴ P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B).
Hence P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B)

(b) Using Venn diagram:

Let n(S) = n = Total no. of distinct possible
outcomes in the sample space S.

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 ii) Let event A: Sum of the numbers is divisible
SOLVED EXAMPLES
by 3
Ex. 1) Two dice are thrown together. What is the 12
∴ P(A) =
probability that, 36
i) Sum of the numbers is divisible by Let event Y: Sum of the numbers is divisible
3 or 4? by 5.
ii) Sum of the numbers is neither divisible by 3
∴ possible sums are 5, 10
nor 5?
Solution : Let S be the sample space ∴ Y ={(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1), (4, 6),
(5, 5), (6, 4)}
Let N1 = N2 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
n(Y) 7
S = N1 × N2 = {(x,y)/x ∈ N1, y ∈ N2} ∴ n(Y) = 7 ∴P(Y) = =
n(S) 36
n(S) = 36 ∴ Event A∩Y: sum is divisible by 3 and 5
i) Let event A: Sum of the numbers is divisible ∴ A∩Y = ϕ
by 3
[X and Y are mutually exclusive events]
∴ possible sums are 3, 6, 9, 12.
n(A ∩ Y)
∴ A = {(1, 2), (1, 5), (2, 1), (2, 4), (3, 3), ∴ P(A∩Y) = =0
n(S)
(3, 6), (4, 2), (4, 5), (5, 1), (5, 4), (6, 3),
(6, 6)} ∴ required probability = P(Sum of the
∴ n(A) = 12 ∴ P(A) = n(A) / n(S) = 12/36 numbers is neither divisible by 3 nor 5)

Let event B: Sum of the numbers is divisible P (A'∩Y') = P (A∪Y)' [De'Morgan's law]
by 4. = 1 − P(X∪Y) [Property 1]
∴ possible sums are 4, 8, 12 = 1 – [P(A) + P(Y) – P (A∩Y)]
∴ B ={(1, 3), (2, 2), (2, 6), (3, 1), (3, 5), 19 17
(4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2), (6, 6)} = 1− =
36 36
9
∴ n(B) = 9 ∴ P(B) = n(B) / n(S) =
36 Ex. 2) The probability that a student will solve
∴ Event A∩B: Sum of the numbers is problem A is 2/3, and the probability that
divisible by 3 and 4 i.e. divisible by 12. he will not solve problem B is 5/9. If the
∴ possible Sum is 12 probability that student solves at least one
problem is 4/5, what is the probability that
∴ A∩B = {(6, 6)} he will solve both the problems?
∴ n(A∩B) = 1 Solution : Let event A: student solves problem A
1
∴ P(A∩B) = n(A∩B)/n(S) = 2
36 ∴ P(A) =
3
P (Sum of the numbers is divisible by
3 or 4) event B: student solves problem B.

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B) ∴ event B': student will not solve problem
B.
12 9 1 20 5 5
= + − = = ∴ P(B') =
36 36 36 36 9 9

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 5 4 5) The probability that a student will pass in
∴ P(B) = 1 − P(B') = 1 − = French is 0.64, will pass in Sociology is
9 9
0.45 and will pass in both is 0.40. What is
Probability that student solves at least one
the probability that the student will pass in
4
problem = P(A∪B) = at least one of the two subjects?
5
6) Two fair dice are thrown. Find the probability
∴ P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B) that number on the upper face of the first die
∴ required probability = P(he will solve both is 3 or sum of the numbers on their upper
the problems) faces is 6.
= P(A∩B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∪B) 7) For two events A and B of a sample space
2 4 4 14 3 1 5
= + − = S, if P(A) = , P(B) = and P(A∪B) = .
3 9 5 45 8 2 8
Find the value of the following.
EXERCISE 9.2 a) P(A∩B)
b) P(A'∩B')
1) First 6 faced die which is numbered 1 through 6 c) P(A'∪B')
is thrown then a 5 faced die which is numbered
1 through 5 is thrown. What is the probability 8) For two events A and B of a sample space
that sum of the numbers on the upper faces 5 1
S, if P(A∪B) = , P(A∩B) = and P(B') =
of the dice is divisible by 2 or 3? 6 3
1
2) A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. , then find P(A).
3
What is the probability that,
i) card is either red or black? 9) A bag contains 5 red, 4 blue and an unknown
number m of green balls. If the probability
ii) card is either black or a face card?
of getting both the balls green, when two
3) A girl is preparing for National Level 1
balls are selected at random is , find m.
Entrance exam and State Level Entrance 7
exam for professional courses. The chances
10) Form a group of 4 men, 4 women and
of her cracking National Level exam is 0.42
3 children, 4 persons are selected at random.
and that of State Level exam is 0.54. The
Find the probability that, i) no child is
probability that she clears both the exams is
selected ii) exactly 2 men are selected.
0.11. Find the probability that (i) She cracks
at least one of the two exams (ii) She cracks 11) A number is drawn at random from the
only one of the two (iii) She cracks none numbers 1 to 50. Find the probability that it is
divisible by 2 or 3 or 10.
4) A bag contains 75 tickets numbered from 1
to 75. One ticket is drawn at random. Find 9.3.1 Conditional Probability:
the probability that, Let S be a sample space associated with the
a) number on the ticket is a perfect square given random experiment. Let A and B be any
or divisible by 4 two events defined on the sample space S. Then
b) number on the ticket is a prime number the probability of occurrence of event A under
or greater than 40 the condition that event B has already occurred

201
and P(B) ≠0 is called conditional probability of 9.3.2 Let S be a finite sample space, associated
event A given B and is denoted by P(A/B). with the given random experiment, containing
equally likely outcomes. Then we have the
following result.
SOLVED EXAMPLES
Statement: Conditional probability of event
A given that event B has already occurred is
Ex.1) A card is drawn from a pack of
given by
52 cards, given that it is a red card, what is the
probability that it is a face card. P(A ∩ B)
P (A/B) = , P(B) ≠ 0
P(B)
Solution : Let event A: Red card is drawn
and event B: face card is drawn (Read A/B as A given B)

A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards, Let S be a sample space associated with the
therefore n(S) = 52. But we are given that red given random experiment and n(S) be the number
of sample points in the sample space S. Since
card is drawn, therefore our sample space reduces
we are given that event B has already occurred,
to event A only, which contains n(A) = 26 sample
therefore our sample space reduces to event B
points. Event A is called reduced or truncated
only, which contains n(B) sample points. Event B
sample space. Out of 26 red cards, 6 cards are is also called reduced or truncated sample space.
favourable for face cards. Now out of n(B) sample points, only n(A∩B)
∴ P[card drawn is face card given that it is a sample points are favourable for occurrence of
red card] = P[B/A] = 6 /26 = 3/13 event A. Therefore, by definition of probability

Ex. 2) A pair of dice is thrown. If sum of the n(A ∩ B)

P(A/B) = , n(B) ≠0
numbers is an odd number, what is the probability n(B)
that sum is divisible by 3? n(A ∩ B)
Solution : Let Event A: sum is an odd n(S)
=
n(B)
number.
n(S)
Event B: Sum is divisible by 3. P(A ∩ B)
∴ P(A/B) = , P(B) ≠0
A pair of dice is thrown, therefore n(S) = 36. P(B)
But we are given that sum is odd, therefore our P(A ∩ B)
sample space reduces to event A only as follows: Similarly P(B/A) = , P(A) ≠ 0
P(A)
A = {(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5),
(3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4),
SOLVED EXAMPLES
(5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)}
∴ n(A) = 18 Ex. 1: Find the probability that a single toss
Out of 18 sample points following 6 sample of a die will result in a number less than 4 if it is
points are favourable for occurrence of event B given that the toss resulted in an odd number.
Solution : Let event A: toss resulted in an
B = {(1, 2), (2, 1), (3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3)} odd number and
∴ P[sum is divisible by 3 given that sum is Event B: number is less than 4
an odd number] = P(B/A) = 6/18 = 1/3 1
∴ A = {1, 3, 5} ∴ P(A) = 3/6 = 2
202
 B = {1, 2, 3} ∴ A∩B = {1, 3}
SOLVED EXAMPLES
2 1
∴ P(A∩B) = =
6 3 Ex. 1) Two cards are drawn from a pack of
52 cards one after other without replacement.
∴ P(number is less than4 given that it is odd)
What is the probability that both cards are ace
1 1 2 cards?
= P(B/A) = P(A∩B)/ P(A) =   /   =
3  2 3 Soln.: Let event A: first card drawn is an Ace
Ex. 2) If P(A') = 0.7, P(B) = 0.7, P(B/A) = card.
0.5, find P(A/B) and P(A∪B). Let event B: second card drawn is an Ace
card.
Solution : Since 1 – P(A') = 0.7
∴ required probability = P(both are Ace
P(A) = 1 – P(A') = 1 − 0.7 = 0.3 cards)
Now P(B/A) = P(A∩B)/P(A) = P(A∩B) = P(A)P(B/A)
∴ 0.5 = P(A∩B)/ 0.3 4 1
Now P(A) = =
∴ P(A∩B) = 0.15 52 13
Since first ace card is not replaced in the
Again P(A/B) = P(A∩B)/P(B)
pack, therefore now we have 51 cards containing
= 0.15/0.7 3 ace cards
∴ P(A/B) = 3/14 ∴ Probability of getting second are card under
the condition that first ace card is not replaced in
Further, by addition theorem 3 1
the pack = P(B/A) = =
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B) 51 17
= 0.3 + 0.7 – 0.15 = 0.85 ∴ P(both are ace cards) = P(A∩B)
1 1 1
9.3.3 Multiplication theorem: = P(A)P(B/A) = × =
13 17 221
Statement: Let S be sample space associated
Ex. 2) An urn contains 4 black and 6 white
with the given random experiment. Let A and B balls. Two balls are drawn one after the other
be any two events defined on the sample space without replacement, what is the probability that
S. Then the probability of occurrence of both the both balls are black?
events is denoted by P(A∩B) and is given by Solution : Let event A: first ball drawn in
P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B/A) black.

B P(A ∩ B) Event B: second ball drawn is black.

Since P(B/A) ==
A P(A) ∴ Required probability = P(both are black
balls)
∴ P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B/A)
P(A∩B) = P(A)P(B/A)
Similarly P(A∩B) = P(B).P(A/B)
4
Now P(A) =
10

203
 Since first black ball is not replaced in the = P(A){1 – P(B)}
urn, therefore now we have 9 balls containing 3 = P(A).P(B')
black balls. ∴ A and B' are also independent.
∴ Probability of getting second black ball b) P(A'∩B') = P(A∪B)'
under the condition that first black is not replaced (By De Morgan’s Law)
3
in the pack = P(B/A) = 9 = 1 - P(A∪B)

∴ P(both are black balls) = P(A∩B) = 1 –[P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)]

4 3 2 = 1 – P(A) – P(B) + P(A).P(B)

= P(A)P(B/A) = × 9 = 15 from (I)
10
9.3.4 Independent Events: = [1– P(A)] – P(B)[1 – P(A)]
Let S be sample space associated with the = [1– P(A)] [1 – P(B)]
given random experiment. Let A and B be any = P(A').P(B')
two events defined on the sample space S. If
∴A' and B' are also independent.
the occurrence of either event, does not affect
the probability of the occurence of the other
event, then the two events A and B are said to be
SOLVED EXAMPLES
independent.
Thus, if A and B are independent events Ex. 1: Two cards are drawn at random one
then, P(A/B) = P(A/B') = P(A) and after the other. Given that first card drawn in non-
P(B/A) = P(B/A') = P(B) face red card, what is the probability that second
card is face card, if the cards are drawn
Remark: If A and B are independent events
then P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B) i) without replacement? ii) with replacement?

note that P(A∩B) = P(A).(B/A) Solution : Let event A: first card drawn is
a non-face red card and event B: second card
= P(A).P(B) drawn is face card.
∴ P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B) 20 5 12 3
∴ P(A) = = and P(B) = =
In general, if A1, A2, A3, … An are n mutually 52 13 52 13
independent events, then
∴ required probability = P(second card
P (A1∩A2∩…. ∩An) = P(A1).P(A2)…P(An)
drawn is face card given that it is a red card)
Theorem:
i) Without replacement: Since first non-face
If A and B are independent events then red card is not replaced, therefore now we have
a) A and B' are also independent event 51 cards containing 12 face cards.

b) A' and B' are also independent event 12

∴ P(B/A) = 51 ≠ P(B). In this case A and B
Proof: Since A and B are independent,
are not independent.
therefore P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B) … (1)
ii) With replacement: Since first non-face
a) P(A∩B') =P(A) – P(A∩B)
red card is replaced, therefore now again we have
= P(A) – P(A).P(B) [From (1)] 52 cards containing 12 face cards.

204
 12 3 = P(A).P(N/A) + P ×
∴ P(B/A) = 52 = 13 = P(B).
+ × P(N/C)
In this case A and B are independent.
= + +
Ex.2: If A and B are two independent events
3 2 = + + =
and P(A) = 5 , P(B) = 3 , find

i) P(A∩B) ii) P(A∩B') iii) P(A'∩B)

iv) P(A'∩B') v) P(A∪B) EXERCISE 9.3
3 2
Solution : P(A) = 5 ∴P(A') = 1 -P(A) = 5
1) A bag contains 3 red marbles and 4 blue
2 1 marbles. Two marbles are drawn at random
P(B) = 3 ∴P(B') = 1 – P(B) = 3
without replacement. If the first marble
2
i) P(A∩B) = P(A)P(B) = 5 drawn is red, what is the probability the
second marble is blue?
1
ii) P(A∩B') =P(A)P(B') = 5 2) A box contains 5 green pencils and 7 yellow
4 pencils. Two pencils are chosen at random
iii) P(A'∩B) =P(A')P(B) = 15
from the box without replacement. What is
2 the probability that both are yellow?
iv) P(A'∩B') =P(A')P(B') = 15
3) In a sample of 40 vehicles, 18 are red, 6 are
13
v) P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B) = 15 trucks, of which 2 are red. Suppose that a
randomly selected vehicle is red. What is the
Ex. 3) Three professors A, B and C appear in
probability it is a truck?
an interview for the post of Principal. Their
chances of getting selected as a principal 4) From a pack of well-shuffled cards, two cards
2 4 1 are drawn at random. Find the probability
are , , . The probabilities they
9 9 3
3 that both the cards are diamonds when
introduce new course in the college are ,
10 i) first card drawn is kept aside
1 4
, respectively. Find the probability that
2 5 ii) the first card drawn is replaced in the
the new course is introduced.
pack.
Solution : Let A, B, C be the events that prof. A,
B and C are selected as principal. 5) A, B, and C try to hit a target simultaneously
2 4 1 3 but independently. Their respective
Given P(A) = , P(B) = , P(C) = = 3 1
9 9 3 9 probabilities of hitting the target are ,
Let N be the event that New Course in 4 2
5
introduced P(N/A) = , P(N/B) = , and . Find the probability that the target
8
P(N/C) = 5 4
a) is hit exactly by one of them
N = (A∩N) ∪ (B∩ )∪( ∩N) b) is not hit by any one of them
∴ P(N) = P(A∩N) + P(B∩ ) + c) is hit
P( ∩N) d) is exactly hit by two of them

205
6) The probability that a student X solves The probability that his wife who is 40 years
2 3
a problem in dynamics is and the old will be alive till she becomes 65 is .
5 8
probability that student Y solves the same What is the probability that, 25 years hence,
1 a) the couple will be alive
problem is . What is the probability that
4 b) exactly one of them will be alive
i) the problem is not solved c) none of them will be alive
ii) the problem is solved d) at least one of them will be alive
iii) the problem is solved exactly by one of 11) A box contains 10 red balls and 15 green
them balls. Two balls are drawn in succession
7) A speaks truth in 80% of the cases and B without replacement. What is the probability
speaks truth in 60% of the cases. Find the that,
probability that they contradict each other in a) the first is red and the second is green?
narrating an incident. b) one is red and the other is green?
8) Two hundred patients who had either Eye 12) A bag contains 3 yellow and 5 brown balls.
surgery or Throat surgery were asked Another bag contains 4 yellow and 6 brown
whether they were satisfied or unsatisfied balls. If one ball is drawn from each bag,
regarding the result of their surgery. what is the probability that,
The follwoing table summarizes their a) both the balls are of the same color?
response. b) the balls are of different color?
13) An urn contains 4 black, 5 white and 6 red
Surgery Satisfied Unsatisfied Total balls. Two balls are drawn one after the other
Throat 70 25 95 without replacement. What is the probability
Eye 90 15 105 that at least one of them is black?

Total 160 40 200 14) Three fair coins are tossed. What is the
probability of getting three heads given that
If one person from the 200 patients is selected at least two coins show heads?
at random, determine the probability 15) Two cards are drawn one after the other from
a) that the person was satisfied given that a pack of 52 cards without replacement.
the person had Throat surgery What is the probability that both the cards
drawn are face cards?
b) that person was unsatisfied given that the
person had eye surgery 16) Bag A contains 3 red and 2 white balls and
c) the person had Throat surgery given that bag B contains 2 red and 5 white balls. A bag
the person was unsatisfied is selected at random, a ball is drawn and put
into the other bag, and then a ball is drawn
9) Two dice are thrown together. Let A be the
from that bag. Find the probability that both
event 'getting 6 on the first die' and B be the
the balls drawn are of same color.
event 'getting 2 on the second die'. Are the
events A and B independent? 17) (Activity) : A bag contains 3 red and 5 white
balls. Two balls are drawn at random one
10) The probability that a man who is 45 years
after the other without replacement. Find the
5
old will be alive till he becomes 70 is . probability that both the balls are white.
12

206
Solution : Let, Also, P(A ∩ Ei) = P(A).P(Ei/A)
A : First ball drawn is white P( A ∩ Ei ) P( E ).P ( A / Ei )
i.e. P(Ei /A) = = n i
P( A)
B : second ball drawn in white. ∑ P( A ∩ Ei )
i =1
P(A) =
After drawing the first ball, without replacing Three types of probabilities occur in the above
it into the bag a second ball is drawn from formula P(Ei), P(A/Ei), P(Ei/A)
the remaining balls. i) The probabilities occur in the above formula
∴ P(B/A) = P(Ei), i = 1, 2, 3, ... n are such that P(E1)
+ P(E2) + .... + P(En) = 1 are called prior
∴ P(Both balls are white) = P(A∩B) probabilities, since they are known before
= P( ).P( ) conducting experiment.

= ii) The probabilities P(A/Ei) tell us, how likely

the event A under consideration occurs,
= given each and every prior probability. They
18) A family has two children. Find the may refer to as likelihood probabilities of
probability that both the children are girls, the event A, given that event Ei has already
given that atleast one of them is a girl. occurred.
9.4 Bayes' Theorem: iii) The conditional probabilities P(Ei/A)
are called posterior probabilities, as they
(This is also known as Bayes' Law and
obtained after conducting experiment.
sometimes Bayes' Rule). This is a direct
application of conditional probabilities. Bayes' Bayes' theorem for n = 3 is explained in the
theorem is useful, to determine posterior following figure.
probabilities.
Theorem : If E1, E2, E3 ... En are mutually
exclusive and exhaustive events with P(Ei) ≠
0, where i = 1, 2, 3 ... n then for any arbitrary
event A which is a subset of the union of
events Ei such that P(A) > 0, we have
P( A ∩ Ei ) P( E ).P ( A / Ei )
P(Ei / A) = = n i
P( A)
∑ P( A ∩ Ei )
i =1

Proof : We have A = (A ∩ E1) ∪ (A ∩ E2) ∪

(A ∩ E3) ... ∪ (A ∩ En)
A ∩ E1, A ∩ E2, A ∩ E3 ... A ∩ En are
mutually exclusive events
So, P(A) = P[(A ∩ E1) ∪ (A ∩ E2) ∪
(A ∩ E3) ... ∪ (A ∩ En)]
n
P(A) = ∑
i =1
P(A ∩ Ei)
Fig. 9.2 (a) & (b)

207
 0.5 and 0.8 respectively. If the bonus scheme has
SOLVED EXAMPLES
been introduced, what is the probability that X is
appointed as the manger?
Ex. 1: A bag contains 6 red, 5blue balls and
another bag contains 5 red and 8 blue balls. A Solution: Let E1: Person X becomes
ball is drawn from first bag and without noticing manager
colour is put in the second bag. A ball is drawn E2: Person Y becomes manager
from the second bag. Find the probability that Let E3: Person Z becomes manager
ball drawn is blue in colour.
4 2 3
∴P(E1) = ; P(E2) = ; P(E3) =
Solution: Let event E1: Red ball is drawn 9 9 9
from the first bag and event E2: Blue ball is drawn (Note that E1, E2 and E3 are mutually
from the first bag. exclusive and exhaustive events)
5
∴ P(E1) = 6/11 and P(E2) = (Note that E1 Let event A: Bonus is introduced.
11
and E2 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive ∴ P(A/E1) = P(Bonus is introduced under the
events) condition that person X becomes manager) = 0.3
P(A/E2) = P(Bonus is introduced under the
Let event A: Blue ball is drawn from the
condition that person Y becomes manager) = 0.5
second bag
and P(A/E3) = P(Bonus is introduced under
∴P(A/E1) = P (Blue ball is drawn from the condition that person Z becomes manager) =
the second under the condition that red ball is 0.8
8 ∴ P(A) = P(A∩E1)+ P(A∩E2) + P(A∩E3)
transferred from first bag to second bag) =
14
= P(E1)P(A/E1) + P(E2)P(A/E2) + P(E3)
Similarly, P(A/E2) = P (Blue ball is drawn P(A/E3)
from the second under the condition that blue ball 4 2 3
9 =   (0.3) +   (0.5) +   (0.8)
is transferred from first bag to second bag) =
14 9 9 9
23
∴ required probability = P(Blue ball is drawn =
45
from the second bag) ∴ required probability = P(Person X becomes
∴ P(A) = P(A∩E1) + P(A∩E2) manager under the condition that bonus scheme
= P(E1)P(A/E1) + P(E2)P(A/E2) is introduced)
= P(E1/A) = P(A∩E1) / P(A)
 6  8   5  9 
=    +    (2 / 15)
 11   14   11   14  =
(23 / 45)
 48   45  93 6
=  = =
 154   154  154 23
Ex. 2: The chances of X, Y, Z becoming
Ex. 3: The members of the consulting firm
managers of a certain company are 4:2:3. The
hire cars from three rental agencies, 60% from
probabilities that the bonus scheme will be
agency X, 30% from agency Y and 10% from
introduced if X, Y, Z become managers are 0.3,
agency Z. 9% of the cars from agency X need

208
repairs, 20% of the cars from agency Y need 3) There is a working women's hostel in a
repairs and 6% of the cars from agency Z need town, where 75% are from neighbouring
repairs. If a rental car delivered to the consulting town. The rest all are from the same town.
firms needs repairs, what is the probability that it 48% of women who hail from the same
came from rental agency Y? town are graduates and 83% of the women
Solution : If A is the event that the car needs who have come from the neighboring town
repairs and B, C, D are the events that the car are also graduates. Find the probability that
comes from rental agencies X, Y or Z. We have a woman selected at random is a graduate
P(B) = 0.6, P(C) = 0.3, P(D) = 0.1, P(A/B) = 0.09, from the same town.
P(A/C) = 0.2 and P(A/D) = 0.06 4) If E1 and E2 are equally likely, mutually
P(A) = P(A∩B) + P(A∩C) + P(A∩D) exclusive and exhaustive events and
P(A/E1) = 0.2, P(A/E2) = 0.3. Find P(E1/A).
= P(B).P(A/B) + P(C).P(A/C) +
5) Jar I contains 5 white and 7 black balls. Jar
P(D).P(A/D) II contains 3 white and 12 black balls. A fair
= 0.6 × 0.09 + 0.3 × 0.2 + 0.1 × 0.06 coin is flipped; if it is Head, a ball is drawn
from Jar I, and if it is Tail, a ball is drawn
= 0.054 + 0.06 + 0.006
from Jar II. Suppose that this experiment is
∴ P(A) = 0.12 done and a white ball was drawn. What is
P(A∩C) P(C).P(A/C) the probability that this ball was in fact taken
P(C/A) = P(A) = P(A) from Jar II?

0.3 × 0.2 0.06 6) A diagnostic test has a probability 0.95 of

= 0.12 = 0.12 giving a positive result when applied to a
person suffering from a certain disease, and
= 0.5 a probability 0.10 of giving a (false) positive
result when applied to a non-sufferer. It
is estimated that 0.5% of the population
EXERCISE 9.4 are sufferers. Suppose that the test is now
administered to a person about whom we
1) There are three bags, each containing 100 have no relevant information relating to
marbles. Bag 1 has 75 red and 25 blue the disease (apart from the fact that he/she
marbles. Bag 2 has 60 red and 40 blue marbles comes from this population). Calculate the
and Bag 3 has 45 red and 55 blue marbles. probability that:
One of the bags is chosen at random and a a) given a positive result, the person is a
marble is picked from the chosen bag. What sufferer.
is the probability that the chosen marble is b) given a negative result, the person is a
red? non-sufferer.
2) A box contains 2 blue and 3 pink balls and 7) A doctor is called to see a sick child. The
another box contains 4 blue and 5 pink balls. doctor has prior information that 80% of
One ball is drawn at random from one of the the sick children in that area have the flu,
two boxes and it is found to be pink. Find the while the other 20% are sick with measles.
probability that it was drawn from (i) first Assume that there is no other disease in that
box (ii) second box. area. A well-known symptom of measles
is rash. From the past records, it is known

209
 that, chances of having rashes given that chances of him being late to the office are
sick child is suffering from measles is 0.95. 1 1 1
, , respectively by Auto, Car and
However occasionally children with flu also 2 4 4
develop rash, whose chance are 0.08. Upon train. On one particular day he was late to the
examining the child, the doctor finds a rash. office. Find the probability that he travelled
What is the probability that child is suffering by car.
from measles?
Solution : Let A, C and T be the events that Mr.
8) 2% of the population have a certain blood X goes to office by Auto, Car and Train
disease of a serious form: 10% have it in a respectively. Let L be event that he is late.
mild form; and 88% don't have it at all. A Given that P(A) = , P(B) = ,
new blood test is developed; the probability
P(C) =
9 if the subject has the
of testing positive is 10 P(L/A) = 12 , P(L/B) = , P(L/C) = 14
serious form, 106 if the subject has the mild P(L) = P(A∩L) + P(C∩L) + P(T∩L)
1 if the subject doesn't have the = P(A).P(L/A) + P(C).P(L/C) + P(T).P(L/T)
form, and 10
= + +
disease. A subject is tested positive. What is = + +
the probability that the subject has serious
form of the disease? =
P(A∩C) P(C).P(L/C)
9) A box contains three coins: two fair coins P(L/C) = P(L) = P(L)
and one fake two-headed coin is picked
randomly from the box and tossed. =
a) What is the probability that it lands head
up? =
b) If happens to be head, what is the 9.5 ODDS (Ratio of two complementary
probability that it is the two-headed coin? probabilities):
10) There are three social media groups on a Let n be number of distinct sample points
mobile: Group I, Group II and Group III. in the sample space S. Out of n sample points, m
The probabilities that Group I, Group II and sample points are favourable for the occurrence
Group III sending the messages on sports are of event A. Therefore remaining (n-m) sample
2 , 1 , and 2 respectively. The probability points are favourable for the occurrence of its
5 2 3
complementary event A'.
of opening the messages by Group I,
∴ P(A) = mn and P(A') = n
n−m
Group II and Group III are 12 , 14 and 14
Ratio of number of favourable cases to
respectively. Randomly one of the messages
number of unfavourable cases is called as odds
is opened and found a message on sports. m i.e.
in favour of event A which is given by n−m
What is the probability that the message was
P(A):P(A')
from Group III.
Ratio of number of unfavourable cases to
11) (Activity) : Mr. X goes to office byAuto, Car and
number of favourable cases is called as odds
train. The probabilities him travelling by these
2 3 2 against event A which is given by n−mm i.e.
modes are , , respectively. The P(A'):P(A)
7 7 7
210
 (1–p2) (1+p2) (1–p )3
SOLVED EXAMPLES = 2
1 p2
Ex. 1: A fair die is thrown. What are the odds ∴ p2 (1+p2) = 1–2p2 + p22
in favour of getting a number which is a perfect
square in uppermost face of die? p2+p22 = 1–2p2 +p22

Soln.: Random experiment: A fair die is 3p2 = 1

thrown. 1
∴ p2 =
3
∴ Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
1
p1 = (p2)2 =  1  =
2

∴ n(S) = 6 9
3
Let event A: die shows number which is a 1 1
perfect square. ∴ P(A) = and P(B) =
9 3
∴A = {1, 4} ∴m = n(A) = 2
∴A' = {2, 3, 5, 6} ∴ (n – m) = 4.
EXERCISE 9.5
m 2 1
∴P(A) = = =
n 6 3
1) If odds in favour of X solving a problem
4 2
P(A') = n−m
n = 6 = 3 are 4:3 and odds against Y solving the same
problem are 2:3. Find probability of:
∴ Odds in favour of event
i) X solving the problem
1/3 1
A = P(A): P(A') = = ii) Y solving the problem
2/3 2
2) The odds against John solving a problem are
Ex. 2: The probability of one event A 4 to 3 and the odds in favor of Rafi solving
happening is the square of the probability of the same problem are 7 to 5. What is the
second event B, but the odds against the event A chance that the problem is solved when both
are the cube of the odds against the event B. Find them try it?
the probability of each event.
3) The odds against student X solving a
Solution : Let P(A) = p1 and P(B) = p2. statistics problem are 8:6 and odds in favour
∴ probability on non-occurrence of the of student y solving the same problem are
events A and B are (1–p1) and (1–p2) respectively. 14:16. Find is the chance that
We are given that p1 = (p2)2 .... (I) i) the problem will be solved if they try it
1–p1 independently
Odds against the event A =
p1 ii) neither of them solves the problem
1–p2 4) The odds against a husband who is 60 years
Odds against the event B =
p2 old, living till he is 85 are 7:5. The odds
Since odds against the event A are the cube against his wife who is now 56, living till
of the odds against the event B. she is 81 are 5:3. Find the probability that
3
1–p1  1− p 2  a) at least one of them will be alive 25 years
= 
p1  p2  hence
1–p22 (1–p2)3 b) exactly one of them will be alive 25 years
= [By (I)]
p22 p23 hence.

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5) There are three events A, B and C, one of Multiplication theorem:
which must, and only one can happen. The
If A and B are any two events defined
odds against the event A are 7:4 and odds
on the same sample space S, then probability
against event B are 5:3. Find the odds against
of simultaneous occurrence of both events is
event C.
denoted by P(A∩B) and is given by P(A∩B) =
6) In a single toss of a fair die, what are the P(A)P(B/A)
odds against the event that number 3 or 4
Independent events:
turns up?
If the occurrence of any one event does not
7) The odds in favour of A winning a game of
depend on occurrence of other event, then two
chess against B are 3:2. If three games are to
events A and B are said to be independent.
be played, what are the odds in favour of A's
winning at least two games out of the three? i.e. if P(A/B) = P(A/B') = P(A)
or P(B/A) = P(B/A') = P(B)
then A and B are independent events.
Let's Remember ∴ P(A∩B) = P(A)P(B)

A.N. Kolmogorov, a Russian mathematician If A and B are independent events then

outlined an axiomatic definition of probability a) A and B' are also independent events
that formed the basis of the modern theory. For b) A' and B' are also independent events.
every event A of sample space S, we assign a
non-negative real number denoted by P(A) and is Bayes' Theorem :
called probability of A, which satisfied following
If E1, E2, E3 ... En are mutually exclusive and
three axioms
exhaustive events with P(E1) ≠ 0, where i = 1,2,3
1) 0 ≤ P(A)≤ 1 ... n. then for any arbitrary event A which is a
2) P(S) = 1 subset of the union of events E such that P(A) >
0, we have
If A and B are mutually exclusive events,
then P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) P( A ∩ Ei ) P( E ).P ( A / Ei )
P(Ei/A) = = n i
P( A)
Addition theorem: ∑ P( A ∩ Ei )
i =1
If A and B are any two events defined on
the same sample space S, then probability of MISCELLANEOUS EXERCISE - 9
occurrence of at least one event is denoted by
P(A∪B)and is given by P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) I) Select the correct answer from the given
– P(A∩B) four alternatives.
Conditional probability: 1) There are 5 girls and 2 boys, then the
If A and B are any two events defined on the probability that no two boys are sitting
same sample space S, then conditional probability together for a photograph is
of event A given that event B has already occurred 1 4 2 5
A) B) C) D)
is denoted by P(A/B) 21 7 7 7
2) In a jar there are 5 black marbles and 3 green
∴ P(A/B) = P(A∩B) / P(B), P(B) ≠ 0
marbles. Two marbles are picked randomly
Similarly, P(B/A) = P(A∩B) / P(A), P(A) ≠0 one after the other without replacement.

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 What is the possibility that both the marbles balls. One ball is drawn at random from one
are black? of the bags and it is found to be red. The
5 5 5 5 probability that it was drawn from Bag II.
A) B) C) D)
14 8 8 16 33 35 34 35
A) B) C) D)
3) Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Then 68 69 67 68
the probability of getting two numbers 9) A fair is tossed twice. What are the odds in
whose product is even is favour of getting 4, 5 or 6 on the first toss
3 1 5 1 and 1, 2, 3 or 4 on the second die?
A) B) C) D)
4 4 7 2
A) 1 : 3 B) 3 : 1 C) 1 : 2 D) 2 : 1
4) In a set of 30 shirts, 17 are white and rest are
black. 4 white and 5 black shirts are tagged 10) The odds against an event are 5:3 and the
as ‘PARTY WEAR’. If a shirt is chosen odds in favour of another independent event
at random from this set, the possibility of are 7:5. The probability that at least one of
choosing a black shirt or a ‘PARTY WEAR’ the two events will occur is
shirt is 52 71 69 13
11 13 9 17 A) B) C) D)
A) B) C) D) 96 96 96 96
15 30 13 30
II) Solve the following.
5) There are 2 shelves. One shelf has 5 Physics
1) The letters of the word 'EQUATION' are
and 3 Biology books and the other has 4
arranged in a row. Find the probability
Physics and 2 Biology books. The probability
that a) All the vowels are together b)
of drawing a Physics book is
Arrangement starts wiht a vowel and ends
9 31 9 1
A) B) C) D) wiith a consonant.
14 48 38 2
6) Two friends A and B apply for a job in the 2) There are 6 positive and 8 negative numbers.
same company. The chances of A getting Four numbers are chosen at random, without
selected is 2/5 and that of B is 4/7. The replacement, and multiplied. Find the
probability that both of them get selected is probability that the product is a positive
numbers.
34 1 8 27
A) B) C) D)
35 35 35 35 3) Ten cards numbered 1 to 10 are placed in
7) The probability that a student knows a box, mixed up thoroughly and then one
the correct answer to a multiple choice card is drawn randomly. If it is known that
2 the number on the drawn card is more than
question is . If the student does not
3 3, what is the probability that it is and even
know the answer, then the student guesses number?
the answer. The probability of the guessed 1 1
1 4) If P(A∩B) = , P (B∩C) = , P(C∩A)
answer being correct is . Given that the 2 3
4
student has answered the question correctly, 1
= then find P(A), P(B) and P(C), If A,B,C
the probability that the student knows the 6
correct answer is are independent events.
5 6 7 8
A) B) C) D)
6 7 8 9
5) If the letters of the word 'REGULATIONS' be
8) Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls while arranged at random, what is the probability
another Bag II contains 5 red and 6 black that there will be exactly 4 letters between R
and E?

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6) In how many ways can the letters of the 13) Find the probability that a year selected will
word ARRANGEMENTS be arranged? have 53 Wednesdays.
a) Find the chance that an arrangement 14) The chances of P, Q and R, getting selected
chosen at random begins with the letters 2 2 1
EE. as principal of a college are , ,
5 5 5
b) Find the probability that the consonants respectively. Their chances of introducing
are together. 1 1 1
IT in the college are , , respectively.
7) A letter is taken at random from the letters 2 3 4
of the word 'ASSISTANT' and another letter Find the probability that
is taken at random from the letters of the
word 'STATISTICS'. Find probability that a) IT is introduced in the college after one
the selected letters are the same. of them is selected as a principal .
b) IT is introduced by Q.
8) A die is loaded in such a way that the
probability of the face with j dots turning up 15) Suppose that five good fuses and two
is proportional to j for j = 1, 2, .......6. What defective ones have been mixed up. To find
is the probability, in one roll of the die, that the defective fuses, we test them one-by-
an odd number of dots will turn up? one, at random and without replacement.
9) An urn contains 5 red balls and 2 green What is the probability that we are lucky and
balls. A ball is drawn. If it's green a red ball fine both of the defective fuses in the first
is added to the urn and if it's red a green ball two tests?
is added to the urn. (The original ball is not 16) Fot three events A, B and C, we know
returned to the urn). Then a second ball is that A and C are independent, B and C are
drawn. What is the probability the second independent, A and B are disjoint, P(A∪C)
ball is red? = 2/3, P(B∪C) = 3/4, P(A∪B∪C) = 11/12.
10) The odds against A solving a certain problem Find P(A), P(B) and P(C).
are 4 to 3 and the odds in favor of solving the
17) The ratio of Boys to Girls in a college is 3:2
same problem are 7 to 5 find the probability
and 3 girls out of 500 and 2 boys out of 50 of
that the problem will be solved.
that college are good singers. A good singer
is chosen what is the probability that the
 A 1 B 1 chosen singer is a girl?
11) If P(A) = P   = , P   = 3 then find
B 5  A 18) A and B throw a die alternatively till one
 A'   B'  of them gets a 3 and wins the game. Find
(i) P   (ii) P  '  the respective probabilities of winning.
B A
(Assuming A begins the game).
12) Let A and B be independent events with 19) Consider independent trails consisting of
1 rolling a pair of fair dice, over and over What
P(A) = , and P (A∪B) = 2P (B) − P(A).
4 is the probability that a sum of 5 appears
Find a) P(B); b) P(A/B); and c) P(B'/A). before sum of 7?

214
20) A machine produces parts that are either 22) In a factory which manufactures bulbs,
good (90%), slightly defective (2%), or machines A, B and C manufacture
obviously defective (8%). Produced parts respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the
get passed through an automatic inspection bulbs. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2 percent
machine, which is able to detect any part that are respectively defective bulbs. A bulbs is
is obviously defective and discard it. What is drawn at random from the product and is
the quality of the parts that make it throught found to be defective. What is the probability
the inspection machine and get shipped? that it is manufactured by the machine B?
21) Given three identical boxes, I, II and III, 23) A family has two children. One of them is
each containing two coins. In box I, both chosen at random and found that the child is
coins are gold coins, in box II, both are silver a girl. Find the probability that
coins and in the box III, there is one gold and a) both the children are girls.
one silver soin. A person chooses a box at
random and takes out a coin. If the coin is b) both the children are girls given that at
of gold, what is the probability that the other least one of them is a girl.
coin in the box is also of gold?

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