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Learning Curves

The document discusses learning curves, which illustrate how the time required to perform a task decreases with increasing repetitions of that task. It provides the following key points: - Short, routine tasks show modest improvement quickly, while longer, complex tasks show improvement over a longer period. - The learning effect is attributed to factors like worker learning, tool/equipment selection, product design, and managerial improvements. - Learning curves are predictable, with the learning percentage being constant as repetitions double. Typical decreases range from 10-20%. - Learning curves can be applied to areas like manpower planning, purchasing, budgeting, and capacity planning. However, estimates based on learning curves should be regarded as approximations. The

Uploaded by

Vishwas Shankarabhakthula
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
430 views

Learning Curves

The document discusses learning curves, which illustrate how the time required to perform a task decreases with increasing repetitions of that task. It provides the following key points: - Short, routine tasks show modest improvement quickly, while longer, complex tasks show improvement over a longer period. - The learning effect is attributed to factors like worker learning, tool/equipment selection, product design, and managerial improvements. - Learning curves are predictable, with the learning percentage being constant as repetitions double. Typical decreases range from 10-20%. - Learning curves can be applied to areas like manpower planning, purchasing, budgeting, and capacity planning. However, estimates based on learning curves should be regarded as approximations. The

Uploaded by

Vishwas Shankarabhakthula
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Learning Curves

Learning Curves
Learning curve
The time required to perform a task decreases

with increasing repetitions


The degree of improvement is a function of the task

being done
Short, routine tasks will show modest improvement

relatively quickly
Longer, more complex tasks will show improvement
over a longer interval

7S-2

The Learning Effect


The learning effect is attributed to a variety of

factors:
Worker learning
Preproduction factors
Tooling and equipment selection
Product design
Methods analysis
Effort expended prior to the start of work
Changes made after production has begun
Changes in work methods
Changes in tooling and equipment
Managerial factors
Improvements in planning, scheduling, motivation, and

control
7S-3

Learning

Experience Curve (
http://www.policonomics.com/l
earning-curve
/)

7S-4

Economic order quantity(EOQ)

7S-5

Interesting Characteristics of
Learning
The learning effect is predictable
The learning percentage is constant

Every doubling of repetitions results in a

constant percentage decrease in the time per


repetition
Typical decreases range from 10 to 20 percent

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Learning Curves: On a Log-Log


Graph

Exl

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The frequency of occurrence of unique words in


the novel Moby Dick by Herman Melville

http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~ aaronc/powerlaws/data.htm
7S-9

The Web of Human Sexual Contacts

Referenc
7S-10
e

Scale-free distribution of # of sexual


partners

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Learning Illustrated
Each time cumulative output doubles, the time per unit for

that amount should be approximately equal to the previous


time multiplied by the learning percentage.
If the first unit of a process took 100 hours and the learning
rate is 90%:
Unit

Unit Time (hours)

= 100

.90(100) = 90

.90(90) = 81

.90(81) = 72.9

16

.90(72.9) = 65.61

32

.90(65.61) = 59.049
7S-12

Unit Times: Formula Approach


Tn T1 n

where
Tn Time for nth unit
T1 Time for first unit
ln r
b
ln 2
r learning rate percentage
ln stands for the natural logarithm
7S-13

Example: Formula Approach


If the learning rate is 90, and the first unit

took 100 hours to complete, how long would it


take to complete the 25th unit?

T25 100 25

ln .90
ln 2

100 25.15200
61.3068 hours

7S-14

Unit Times: Learning Factor


Approach
The learning factor approach uses a table that

shows two things for selected learning


percentages:
Unit value for the number of repetitions (unit

Tn T1 Unit time factor


number)

Cumulative
which
us to compute
Tn value,
T1 Total
time enables
factor

the total time required to complete a given


number of units.

7S-15

Example: Learning Factor Approach


If the learning rate is 90, and the first unit

took 100 hours to complete, how long would it


take to complete the 25th unit?

T25 100 .613

61.3 hours
How long would it take to complete the first

25 units?

25

100 17.713
1,771.3 hours
7S-16

Learning Curve Applications


Useful application areas:
1. Manpower planning and scheduling
2. Negotiated purchasing
3. Pricing new products
4. Budgeting, purchasing, and inventory planning
5. Capacity planning

7S-17

Cautions and Criticisms


1. Learning rates may differ from organization to

organization and by type of work


Base learning rates on empirical studies rather than

assumptions where possible

2. Projections based on learning curves should be

regarded as approximations of actual times


3. Because time estimates are based on the first
unit, care should be taken to ensure that the
time is valid
4. It is possible that at some point the curve might
level off or even tip upward
7S-18

Cautions and Criticisms


5. Some of the improvements may be more

apparent than real: improvements in times may


be caused by increases in indirect labor costs
6. In mass production situations, learning curves
may be of initial use in predicting how long it will
take before the process stabilizes
The concept does not usually apply because

improvement in time per unit is almost imperceptible

7S-19

Cautions and Criticisms


7. Users of learning curves fail to include carryover

effects from previous experiences


8. Shorter product life cycles, flexible
manufacturing, and cross-functional workers can
affect the ways in which learning curves may be
applied

7S-20

Estimating Learning Rates


A manager wants to determine an appropriate learning rate for a new
type of work his firm will undertake. He has obtained completion times
for the initial six repetitions of a job of this type. What learning rate is
appropriate?
Unit

Completion
Time (hours)

15.9

12.0

10.1

9.1

8.4

7.5

According to theory, the time per unit decreases at a


constant rate each time the output doubles (e.g., 1 to
2, 2 to 4, and 3 to 6). The ratios of these observed
times will give us an approximate rate.
Unit 2 12.0

.755
Unit 1 15.9

Unit 4 9.1
Unit 6 7.5

.758

.743
Unit 2 12.0
Unit 3 10.1

Not surprisingly, there is some variability; the rate is


usually a smoothed approximation. Even so, the
ratios are fairly close a rate of 75 percent in this
case.

7S-21

Q 1)
An aircraft company has an order to

refurbish the interiors of 18 jet aircraft.


The work has a learning curve of 80%.
On the basis of experience with similar
jobs, the IED estimates that the first
plane will require 300 hours to refurbish.
Estimate the amount of time needed to
complete:
The 5th plane
The first 5 planes
All 18 planes.
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Q 2) Bid Preparation based on LC


A contractor intends to bid on a job installing

30 airport security systems. Because this will


be a new line of work for the contractor, he
believes there will be a learning effect for the
job. After reviewing time records from a
similar type of activity, the contractor is
convinced that an 85% LC is appropriate. He
estimates that the first job will take his crew
8 days to install. How many days should the
contractor budget for:
The first 10 installations
The second 10 installations
The final 10 installations
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Q 3)
The 5th unit of a 25-unit job took 14.5

hours to complete. If a 90% LC is


appropriate:
How long should it take to complete the
last unit?
How long should it take to complete the
10th unit?
Estimate the average time per unit for
the 25 units.

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Q 4)
The labor cost to produce a certain item

is 8.50 per hour. Job setup costs 50


and material costs are 20 per unit. The
item can be purchased for 88.50 per
unit. The learning rate is 90%. Overhead
is charged at a rate of 50% of labor,
materials, and setup costs.
Determine the unit cost for 20 units,
given that the first unit took 5 hours to
complete.
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7S-30

Q 5)
Estimate the number of repetitions that

new service worker Irene will require to


achieve standard if the standard is 18
minutes per repetition. She took 30
minutes to do the initial repetition and
25 minutes to do the next repetition.

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7S-32

Next Class

System
Archetypes

7S-33

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