Random Variables and Probability

Distributions

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Random Variables

A random variable x represents a numerical value

associated with each outcome of a probability distribution.

A random variable is discrete if it has a finite or countable

number of possible outcomes that can be listed.
x
0 2 4 6 8 10

A random variable is continuous if it has an uncountable

number or possible outcomes, represented by the intervals
on a number line.
x
0 2 4 6 8 10

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Random Variables

Example:
Decide if the random variable x is discrete or continuous.
a.) The distance your car travels on a tank of gas
The distance your car travels is a continuous
random variable because it is a measurement that
cannot be counted. (All measurements are
continuous random variables.)

b.) The number of students in a statistics class

The number of students is a discrete random
variable because it can be counted.
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Random Variable

• Number of new subscribers to a

magazine
• Number of bad checks received by
a restaurant
• Number of absent employees on a
given day

4
Random Variable

• Current Ratio of a motorcycle

distributorship
• Elapsed time between arrivals of
bank customers
• Percent of the labor force that is
unemployed

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Discrete Probability Distributions

A discrete probability distribution lists each possible value

the random variable can assume, together with its
probability. A probability distribution must satisfy the
following conditions.

In Words In Symbols
1. The probability of each value of 0  P (x)  1
the discrete random variable is
between 0 and 1, inclusive.

2. The sum of all the probabilities ΣP (x) = 1

is 1.

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Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Guidelines
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible
outcomes x1, x2, … , xn.
1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible
outcomes.
2. Find the sum of the frequencies.
3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by
dividing its frequency by the sum of the frequencies.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and
that the sum is 1.

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Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Example:
The spinner below is divided into two sections. The
probability of landing on the 1 is 0.25. The probability of
landing on the 2 is 0.75. Let x be the number the spinner
lands on. Construct a probability distribution for the
random variable x.

1
x P ( x)
1 0.25 Each probability is
2 between 0 and 1.
2 0.75

The sum of the probabilities is 1.

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Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Example:
The spinner below is spun two times. The probability of
landing on the 1 is 0.25. The probability of landing on the 2
is 0.75. Let x be the sum of the two spins. Construct a
probability distribution for the random variable x.

The possible sums are 2, 3, and 4.

1 P (sum of 2) = 0.25  0.25 = 0.0625

Spin a 1 on “and” Spin a 1 on the

2
the first spin. second spin.

Continued.
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Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Example continued:

P (sum of 3) = 0.25  0.75 = 0.1875

1
Spin a 1 on “and” Spin a 2 on the
2 the first spin. second spin.
“or”

P (sum of 3) = 0.75  0.25 = 0.1875

Sum of
P ( x)
spins, x
2 0.0625 Spin a 2 on “and” Spin a 1 on the
3 0.375 the first spin. second spin.
4
0.1875 + 0.1875 Continued.
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Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Example continued:

1 P (sum of 4) = 0.75  0.75 = 0.5625

2 Spin a 2 on “and” Spin a 2 on the
the first spin. second spin.

Sum of
P ( x)
spins, x
2 0.0625 Each probability is between
3 0.375 0 and 1, and the sum of the
4 0.5625 probabilities is 1.

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Graphing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Example:
Graph the following probability distribution using a histogram.
Sum of P(x)
P ( x) Sum of Two Spins
spins, x 0.6
2 0.0625 0.5
3 0.375
Probability

4 0.5625 0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1
0 x
2 3 4
Sum
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 Mean
The mean of a discrete random variable is given by
μ = ΣxP(x).
Each value of x is multiplied by its corresponding
probability and the products are added.
Example:
Find the mean of the probability distribution for the sum of
the two spins.
x P ( x) xP (x)
2 0.0625 2(0.0625) = 0.125 ΣxP(x) = 3.5
3 0.375 3(0.375) = 1.125 The mean for the
4 0.5625 4(0.5625) = 2.25 two spins is 3.5.
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 Variance
The variance of a discrete random variable is given by
2 = Σ(x – μ)2P (x).

Example:
Find the variance of the probability distribution for the sum
of the two spins. The mean is 3.5.

x P ( x) x – μ (x – μ)2 P (x)(x – μ)2 ΣP(x)(x – 2)2

2 0.0625 –1.5 2.25  0.141  0.376
3 0.375 –0.5 0.25  0.094
The variance for the
4 0.5625 0.5 0.25  0.141 two spins is
approximately 0.376

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 Standard Deviation
The standard deviation of a discrete random variable is
given by
σ = σ 2.
Example:
Find the standard deviation of the probability distribution
for the sum of the 2two spins. The variance is 0.376.
σ  σ
x P ( x) x – μ (x – μ)2 P (x)(x – μ)2
 0.376  0.613
2 0.0625 –1.5 2.25 0.141
Most of the sums
3 0.375 –0.5 0.25 0.094 differ from the
4 0.5625 0.5 0.25 0.141 mean by no more
than 0.6 points.
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 Expected Value
The expected value of a discrete random variable is equal to
the mean of the random variable.
Expected Value = E(x) = μ = ΣxP(x).

Example:
At a raffle, 500 tickets are sold for $1 each for two prizes of
$100 and $50. What is the expected value of your gain?

Your gain for the $100 prize is $100 – $1 = $99.

Your gain for the $50 prize is $50 – $1 = $49.
Write a probability distribution for the possible gains
(or outcomes).
Continued.
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 Expected Value
Example continued:
At a raffle, 500 tickets are sold for $1 each for two prizes of
$100 and $50. What is the expected value of your gain?

Gain, x P ( x)
E(x) = ΣxP(x).
1
$99 500 1 1 498
 $99   $49   ($1) 
1 500 500 500
$49 500
 $0.70
–$1 498
500
Because the expected value is
Winning negative, you can expect to lose
no prize
$0.70 for each ticket you buy.

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Examples
• 1. Tossing a coin three times and denote the number of
heads:

• P(x=0) = 1/8
• P(x=1) = 3/8
• P(x=2) = 3/8
• P(x=3) = 1/8

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Examples
• 2. Tossing a die, if we denote the number that occurs by x:
• X = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
• P(x=1) = 1/6
• P(x=2) = 1/6
• P(x=3) = 1/6
• P(x=4) = 1/6
• P(x=5) = 1/6
• P(x=6) = 1/6

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Examples

• 3.Consider an experiment where a ball is drawn at

random from a box containing 6 red, 4 blue, 3 green, and
2 white balls. Let a random variable Y take on the value 0
if the ball drawn is red, 1 if it is blue, and 2 if it is either
green or white. Construct a probability table for this
situation.

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Examples

• Outcome Probability Probability

• of Outcome of the value

• Red 6/15 P(y=0)= 6/15

• Blue 4/15 P(y=1)= 4/15
• Green 3/15 P(y=2)= 3/15
• White 2/15 P(y=2)= 2/15

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 Examples
•Values Outcomes Probability
• 4. Find the probability
distribution of the sum
of the numbers that
occur if a pair of dice is
tossed.

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Examples
•Values Outcomes Probability
•2 (1, 1) 1/36
•3 (1, 2) (2, 1) 2/36
•4 (1, 3) (2, 2) ( 3, 1) 3/36
•5 (1, 4) (2, 3) (3, 2) (4, 1) 4/36
•6 (1,5) (2,4) (3,3) (4,2) (5,1) 5/36
•7 (1,6) (2,5) (3,4) (4,3) (5,2) (6,1) 6/36
•8 (2,6) (3, 5) (4,4) (5,3) (6,2) 5/36
•9 (3, 6) (4,5) (5,4) (6,3) 4/36
•10 (4,6) (5,5) (6,4) 3/36
•11 (5,6) (6,5) 2/36
•12 (6,6) 1/36

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