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    Hedi mar Necor
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    This document introduces probability and odds. Probability is a number between 0 and 1 that describes the likelihood of an event occurring. Events with probabilities close to 0 are unlikely, while those close to 1 are likely. Odds compare the number of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes of an event. Theoretical probabilities are calculated, while empirical probabilities are based on experimental data. Examples demonstrate calculating probabilities of equally likely outcomes using formulas involving the number of possible outcomes. Examples also show determining odds by comparing favorable to unfavorable outcomes.

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    This document introduces probability and odds. Probability is a number between 0 and 1 that describes the likelihood of an event occurring. Events with probabilities close to 0 are unlikely, while those close to 1 are likely. Odds compare the number of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes of an event. Theoretical probabilities are calculated, while empirical probabilities are based on experimental data. Examples demonstrate calculating probabilities of equally likely outcomes using formulas involving the number of possible outcomes. Examples also show determining odds by comparing favorable to unfavorable outcomes.

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    55 views17 pages

    Combinatorics and Probability

    Uploaded by

    Hedi mar Necor
    This document introduces probability and odds. Probability is a number between 0 and 1 that describes the likelihood of an event occurring. Events with probabilities close to 0 are unlikely, while those close to 1 are likely. Odds compare the number of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes of an event. Theoretical probabilities are calculated, while empirical probabilities are based on experimental data. Examples demonstrate calculating probabilities of equally likely outcomes using formulas involving the number of possible outcomes. Examples also show determining odds by comparing favorable to unfavorable outcomes.

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    of 17

    Probability and Odds

    Introduction to Probability

    2
    Introduction to Probability
    The likelihood of the occurrence of a particular event is
    described by a number between 0 and 1. (You can think of
    this as a percentage between 0% and 100%, inclusive.)

    This number is called the probability of the event. An


    event that is not very likely has a probability close to 0; an
    event that is very likely has a probability close to 1 (100%).

    Because any event has from 0% to 100% chance of


    occurring, probabilities are always between 0 and 1,
    inclusive. If an event must occur, its probability is 1. If an
    event cannot occur, its probability is 0.
    3
    Equally likely outcomes means that the chance of any
    one outcome is just as likely as the chance of any other.

    For instance,
    If 4 balls of the same size but different colors—red, blue,
    green, and white—are placed in a box and a blindfolded
    person chooses 1 ball, the chance of choosing a green ball
    is the same as the chance of choosing any other color ball.

    4
    In the case of equally likely outcomes, the probability of an
    event is based on the number of elements in the event and
    the number of elements in the sample space. We will use
    n(E) to denote the number of elements in the event E and
    n(S) to denote the number of elements in the sample
    space S.

    5
    Example 2 – Probability of Equally Likely Outcomes

    A fair coin—one for which it is equally likely that heads or


    tails will result from a single toss—is tossed 3 times. What
    is the probability that 2 heads and 1 tail are tossed?

    Solution:
    Determine the number of elements in the sample space.
    The sample space must include every possible toss of a
    head or a tail (in order) in 3 tosses of the coin.

    6
    Example 2 – Solution cont’d

    The elements in the event are

    The probability is .

    7
    Empirical Probability

    8
    Empirical Probability
    Probabilities such as those calculated in the preceding
    example is sometimes referred to as theoretical
    probabilities.

    When a probability is based on data gathered from an


    experiment, it is called an experimental or empirical
    probability.

    9
    Example 4 – Calculate an Empirical Probability

    A survey showed the following information on the ages and


    courses of students in the University. If one student is
    chosen at random from this survey, what is the probability
    that the student is Accountancy?

    10
    Example 4 – Solution
    Let R be the event that Accountancy student is selected.

    Then

    The probability that the selected student is Accountancy is


    approximately 0.32.

    11
    Calculating Odds

    12
    Calculating Odds

    A favorable outcome of an experiment is one that satisfies


    some event. For instance, in the case of free-throw
    attempts by professional basketball players, you can
    assume that out of 11 free-throw attempts, there will be 9
    favorable outcomes (9 baskets).

    13
    Calculating Odds
    The opposite event, a missed basket, is an unfavorable
    outcome. Odds are frequently expressed in terms of
    favorable and unfavorable outcomes.

    14
    Example 6 – Calculate Odds
    If a pair of fair dice is rolled once, what are the odds in
    favor of rolling a sum of 7?

    Solution:
    Let E be the event of rolling a sum of 7. The 6 favorable
    outcomes are

    The unfavorable outcomes are the remaining 30


    possibilities. (Because there are 36 possible outcomes
    when tossing 2 dice and 6 of them are favorable, there are
    36 – 6 = 30 unfavorable outcomes.)
    15
    Example 6 – Solution cont’d

    The odds in favor of rolling a sum of 7 are 1 to 5.

    16
    Calculating Odds
    Odds express the likelihood of an event and are therefore
    related to probability. When the odds of an event are
    known, the probability of the event can be determined.

    Conversely, when the probability of an event is known, the


    odds of the event can be determined.

    17

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