Agenda:

1. International Flow of Funds

2. International Financial Market
3. Exchange rate determination
US Dollar Versus Euro: Impact of news

Expected
increase
in Fed
Rate

Unexpectedly
bad
employment
news
From the news…

“The dollar plunged across the board early in New York after the Labor
Department reported employers added 112,000 jobs in June, far below
market forecasts for a 250,000 increase…….”

“The Fed on Wednesday increased the Fed rate by 25 basis points

consistent with the market expectations…….”
 International Flow of Funds
Learning Objectives

• To explain the key components of the

balance of payments; and
• To explain how the international flow of
funds is influenced by economic factors
and other factors.
 Balance of Payments
• The balance of payments is a measurement
of all transactions between domestic and
foreign residents over a specified period of
time.
• Each transaction is recorded as both a credit
and a debit, i.e. double-entry bookkeeping.
• The transactions are presented in three
groups – a current account, a capital
account, and a financial account.
 Balance of Payments
The current account summarizes the flow of funds
between one specified country and all other countries due
to:
• the purchases or sales of goods;
• purchases or sales of services;
• income payments or receipts on assets; or
• unilateral current transfers (e.g. government grants and
pensions, private remittances).
A current account deficit suggests a greater outflow of
funds from the specified country for its current
transactions.
 Summary of U.S. International Transactions
(For the Year of 2000 in Millions of Dollars)

Current Account
Exports of goods and services and income receipts 1418568
Goods, balance of payments basis 772210
Services 293492
Income receipts 352866
Imports of goods and services and income receipts -1809099
Goods, balance of payments basis -1224417
Services -217024
Income payments -367658
Unilateral current transfers, net -54136
Balance on current account -444667

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 Balance of Payments
• The current account is commonly used to
assess the balance of trade, which is simply
the difference between merchandise exports
and merchandise imports.
 Balance of Payments

• The new capital account (as defined in the

1993 System of National Accounts and the
fifth edition of IMF’s Balance of Payments
Manual) is adopted by the U.S. in 1999.
• It includes unilateral current transfers that
are really shifts in assets, not current
income. E.g. debt forgiveness, transfers by
immigrants, the sale or purchase of rights to
natural resources or patents.
 Summary of U.S. International Transactions
(For the Year of 2000 in Millions of Dollars)

Capital Account
Capital account transactions, net 705

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 Balance of Payments

• The financial account (which was called the

capital account previously) summarizes the
flow of funds resulting from the sale of
assets between one specified country and
all other countries.
• Assets include official reserves, other
government assets, direct foreign
investments, investments in securities, etc.
 Summary of U.S. International Transactions
(For the Year of 2000 in Millions of Dollars)

Financial Account
U.S.-owned assets abroad, net (increase/financial outflow) -580952
U.S. official reserve assets, net -290
Other U.S. Gov’t assets, net -944
U.S. private assets, net -579718
Foreign-owned assets in the U.S., net (increase/financial inflow)
1024218
Foreign official assets in the U.S., net 37619
Other foreign assets in the U.S., net 986599
Net financial flows 443266
Statistical discrepancy (sum of items in all accounts with sign reversed)
696

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 Online Application

• The U.S. balance of payments and related

data are disseminated by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis.

Visit the Bureau at http://www.bea.doc.gov.

 Online Application

• For a snapshot of the latest international

trade conditions, visit the White House’s
Economic Statistics Briefing Room at
www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/international.html.
 International Trade Flows

• Different countries rely on trade to different

extents.
• The trade volume of European countries is
typically between 30 – 40% of their respective
GDP, while the trade volume of U.S. and
Japan is typically between 10 – 20% of their
respective GDP.
• Nevertheless, the volume of trade has grown
over time for most countries.
 The US Relies Less on International Trade as a Share of its National
Economy than Most Nations
100% Exports and Imports as a Percent of GDP in 2002

90%

80%
Exports
Exports, Imports (as a percent of GDP)

70%
Imports
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
UK
US

Italy

Chile
China
Brazil
Japan

India*

France

Russia
Nigeria
Poland

Ireland
Mexico

Belgium
Canada
Germany

Thailand
Australia

Euro Area
Argentina

Netherlands
South Africa

South Korea

Indonesia**
Saudi Arabia

Switzerland
** 2001 data * 2000 data
Prof. Jeff Rosensweig, Emory University. Data source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, January 2004
 Distribution of
Canada U.S. Exports
(179,231)
and Imports
Mexico For the Year of 2000
(111,136) (exports, imports)
Bahamas (1,0)
Guatemala in Billions of $
Honduras (3,3)
(2,3) Jamaica (1,1)
El Salvador (2,2) Dominican Republic (4,4)
Costa Rica (2,4) Trinidad and Tobago (1,2)
Panama (2,0)
Colombia (4,7) Peru
Ecuador Venezuela (6,19)
(2,2)
(1,2) Brazil (15,14)
Chile
(3,3)
Argentina (5,3)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Distribution of U.S. Exports and Imports
(exports, imports) in Billions of $ for the Year of 2000
Sweden Poland Finland (2,3)
Norway (2,6) (5,10) (1,1)
Denmark (2,3) Russia (2,8)
Germany (29,59) Czech Republic
Netherlands (1,1)
(22,10)
Austria (3,3)
Ireland (8,16)
Hungary
United Kingdom (1,3)
(42,43)
Belgium Italy
(14,10) (11,25)
Portugal
(1,2) Spain France Turkey (4,3)
(6,6) (20,30) Switzerland Greece (1,1)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (10,10)
 Algeria (1,3)

Egypt (3,1)

Nigeria (1,11)

Gabon (0,2)

Distribution of Angola
(0,4)
U.S. Exports
and Imports
For the Year of 2000
(exports, imports) South Africa (3,4)
in Billions of $
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
 Iraq (0,6) Bangladesh (0,2) Japan
Israel (8,13) Pakistan (65,146)
Kuwait (0,2)
South Korea
(1,3) (28,40)
China
Saudi Arabia (16,100)
(6,14) Taiwan (24,41)
India Hong Kong
United Arab (4,11) (15,11)
Emirates Sri Lanka Macao (0,1)
(2,1) (0,2)
Philippines
Distribution of Thailand (9,14)
(7,16)
U.S. Exports Indonesia
(2,10)
Malaysia
and Imports (11,26) Australia
(12,6)
For the Year of 2000 Singapore
(exports, imports) (18,19)
in Billions of $ New Zealand
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2,2)
 Distribution of U.S. Exports and Imports
For the Year of 2000 in Billions of $
Exports Imports
Australasia Other Asia South Other Asia Australasia
14.8 1.9% 23.6 3.0% 47.4 East 88.0 56.5 4.6% 8.8 0.7%
6.1% Asia 7.2%
Canada
Canada 229.2
178.8 148.5
19.0% 18.8%
22.8%
East Asia
Mexico
340.3
135.9
Mexico 28.0%
11.2%
111.7 11.0
14.3% 1.4% Other
Africa America
Other 27.6 73.3
America 2.3% 6.0%
59.3 Eastern Europe 181.3 Western 241.0 Eastern Europe
7.6% 6.1 0.8% 23.2% Europe 19.8% 16.2 1.3%
Source: U.S. Office of Trade and Economic Analysis
 International Trade Flows

• In 1975, the U.S. exported $107.1 billions

in goods, and imported $98.2 billions.
Since then, international trade has grown,
with U.S. exports and imports of goods
valued at $773.3 and $1,222.8 billions
respectively for the year of 2000.
• Since 1976, the value of U.S. imports has
exceeded the value of U.S. exports,
causing a balance of trade deficit.
 U.S. Balance of Trade Trend
1300

1100
U.S. Imports
900
Billions of US$

700

500

300
U.S. Exports
100

-1001960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

-300
U.S. Balance of Trade
-500

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

 Globalization: Trade Rises as a Share of U.S. GDP
15% 15%
14%
Imports of goods and services 13%
Exports of goods and services 12%
Trade Balance 11%
10% 10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5% 5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0% 0%
-1%
1978

1982

1996

2002
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976

1980

1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994

1998
2000
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Prof: Jeff Rosensw eig, Emory University Data Source: US Dept. of Commerce, January 2004 2003 = estim ate. Data reported 12 March 2004.
-5%
 International Trade Flows

• Recent Changes in North American Trade

¤ In 1998, a 1989 free trade pact between U.S. and
Canada was fully phased in.
¤ Passed in 1993, the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) removes numerous trade
restrictions among Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.
¤ In 2001, trade negotiations were initiated for a
free trade area of the Americas. 34 countries are
involved.
 International Trade Flows

• Recent Changes in European Trade

¤ The Single European Act of 1987 was
implemented to remove explicit and implicit
trade barriers among European countries.
¤ Consumers in Eastern Europe now have
more freedom to purchase imported goods.
¤ The single currency system implemented in
1999 eliminated the need to convert
currencies among participating countries.
 International Trade Flows

• Trade Agreements Around the World

¤ In 1993, a General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade (GATT) accord calling for lower tariffs
was made among 117 countries.
¤ Other trade agreements include:
­ Association of Southeast Asian Nations
­ European Community
­ Central American Common Market
­ North American Free Trade Agreement
 International Trade Flows

• Friction Surrounding Trade Agreements

¤ Trade agreements are sometimes broken when one
country is harmed by another country’s actions.
¤ Dumping refers to the exporting of products by one
country to other countries at prices below cost.
¤ There might be barriers other than tariff: environmental
standards, labor standards, politics (mainly non-tariff).
¤ Another situation that can break a trade agreement is
copyright piracy (Intellectual property).
 Factors Affecting
International Trade Flows
• Inflation
¤ A relative increase in a country’s inflation
rate will decrease its current account, as
imports increase and exports decrease.
• National Income
¤ A relative increase in a country’s income
level will decrease its current account, as
imports increase.
 Factors Affecting
International Trade Flows
• Government Restrictions
¤ A government may reduce its country’s
imports by imposing tariffs on imported
goods, or by enforcing a quota. Note that
other countries may retaliate by imposing
their own trade restrictions.
¤ Sometimes though, trade restrictions may
be imposed on certain products for health
and safety reasons.
 Factors Affecting
International Trade Flows
• Exchange Rates
¤ If a country’s currency begins to rise in
value, its current account balance will
decrease as imports increase and exports
decrease.
• Note that the factors are interactive, such
that their simultaneous influence on the
balance of trade is a complex one.
 Correcting
A Balance of Trade Deficit
• By reconsidering the factors that affect
the balance of trade, some common
correction methods can be developed.
• For example, a floating exchange rate
system may correct a trade imbalance
automatically since the trade imbalance
will affect the demand and supply of the
currencies involved.
 Correcting
A Balance of Trade Deficit
• However, a weak home currency may not
necessarily improve a trade deficit.
¤ Foreign companies may lower their prices to
maintain their competitiveness.
¤ Some other currencies may weaken too.
¤ Many trade transactions are prearranged and
cannot be adjusted immediately.
¤ The impact of exchange rate movements on
intracompany trade, which makes up more than
50% of all international trade, is limited.
J-Curve Effect
In fact, initially trade deficit may worsen and then
bounce back. This phenomenon is known as J-
curve effect.
U.S. Trade Balance

0 Time

J Curve
 International Capital Flows

• Capital flows usually represent portfolio

investment or direct foreign investment.
• The DFI positions inside and outside the
U.S. have risen substantially over time,
indicating increasing globalization.
• In particular, both DFI positions increased
during periods of strong economic
growth.
 Direct Foreign Investment Positions
of the United States on a Historical Cost basis
1400

1200
DFI by U.S. Firms
Billions of US$

1000

800

600

400
DFI in the U.S.
200

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 Distribution of DFI for the U.S.
For the Year of 2000
DFI by U.S. Firms DFI in the U.S.
Other Asia Other
Japan & Pacific Canada Other Western Canada Asia &
4.5% Hemisphere
11.6% 10.2% 19.2% 3.4% 8.1% Pacific Japan
Middle 2.5% 13.2%
East France
1.0% Middle
9.6% East
Africa 0.7%
1.3% Germany
9.9%
Other Other
Europe France
3.1% Europe
16.6% 21.5%
Germany
4.3%
United Kingdom United Kingdom
18.8% Netherlands
9.3% 12.3% 18.5%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
 Factors Affecting DFI

• Changes in Restrictions
¤ New opportunities may arise from the removal
of government barriers.
• Privatization
¤ DFI has also been stimulated by the selling of
government operations.
• Potential Economic Growth
¤ Countries with higher potential economic
growth are more likely to attract DFI.
 Factors Affecting DFI

• Tax Rates
¤ Countries that impose relatively low tax
rates on corporate earnings are more likely
to attract DFI.
• Exchange Rates
¤ Firms will typically prefer to invest their
funds in a country when that country’s
currency is expected to strengthen.
 Factors Affecting
International Portfolio Investment

• Tax Rates on Interest or Dividends

¤ Investors will normally prefer countries where
the tax rates are relatively low.
• Interest Rates
¤ Money tends to flow to countries with high
interest rates.
• Exchange Rates
¤ Foreign investors may be attracted if the local
currency is expected to strengthen.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
• The IM F is an organization of 183 member
countries. Established in 1946, it aims
¤ to promote international monetary
cooperation and exchange stability;
¤ to foster economic growth and high levels of
employment; and
¤ to provide temporary financial assistance to
help ease imbalances of payments.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
• Its operations involve surveillance, and
financial and technical assistance.
• In particular, its compensatory financing
facility attempts to reduce the impact of
export instability on country economies.
• The IM F uses a quota system, and its unit of
account is the SDR (special drawing right).
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
• The weights assigned to the currencies in
the SDR basket are as follows:
Currency 2001 Revision 1996 Revision
U.S. dollar 45 39
Euro 29
Deutsche mark 21
French franc 11
Japanese yen 15 18
Pound sterling 11 11
 Online Application

• You may learn more about the IMF at

http://www.imf.org.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
World Bank Group
• Established in 1944, the Group assists
development with the primary focus of
helping the poorest people and the
poorest countries.
• It has 183 member countries, and is
composed of five organizations - IBRD,
IDA, IFC, MIGA and ICSID.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
IBRD: International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development
• Better known as the World Bank, the IBRD
provides loans and development assistance
to middle-income countries and creditworthy
poorer countries.
• In particular, its structural adjustment loans
are intended to enhance a country’s long-term
economic growth.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
IBRD: International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development
• The IBRD is not a profit-maximizing
organization. Nevertheless, it has earned a
net income every year since 1948.
• It may spread its funds by entering into
cofinancing agreements with official aid agencies,
export credit agencies, as well as commercial
banks.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
IDA: International Development Association
• IDA was set up in 1960 as an agency that lends
to the very poor developing nations on highly
concessional terms.
• IDA lends only to those countries that lack the
financial ability to borrow from IBRD.
• IBRD and IDA are run on the same lines,
sharing the same staff, headquarters and
project evaluation standards.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
IFC: International Finance Corporation
• The IFC was set up in 1956 to promote
sustainable private sector investment in
developing countries, by
¤ financing private sector projects;
¤ helping to mobilize financing in the
international financial markets; and
¤ providing advice and technical assistance to
businesses and governments.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
M IGA: Multilateral Investment Guarantee
Agency
• The MIGA was created in 1988 to promote
FDI in emerging economies, by
¤ offering political risk insurance to investors
and lenders; and
¤ helping developing countries attract and
retain private investment.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
ICSID: International Centre for Settlement of
Investment Disputes
• The ICSID was created in 1966 to facilitate
the settlement of investment disputes
between governments and foreign
investors, thereby helping to promote
increased flows of international
investment.
 Online Application

• To learn more about the World Bank

Group and its organizations, visit:
¤ http://www.worldbank.org
¤ http://www.worldbank.org/ibrd
¤ http://www.worldbank.org/ida
¤ http://www.ifc.org
¤ http://www.miga.org
¤ http://www.worldbank.org/icsid
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
World Trade Organization (WTO)
• Created in 1995, the WTO is the successor to
the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
(GATT).
• It deals with the global rules of trade between
nations to ensure that trade flows smoothly,
predictably and freely.
• At the heart of the WTO's multilateral trading
system are its trade agreements.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
World Trade Organization (WTO)
• Its functions include:
¤ administering WTO trade agreements;
¤ serving as a forum for trade negotiations;
¤ handling trade disputes;
¤ monitoring national trading policies;
¤ providing technical assistance and training for
developing countries; and
¤ cooperating with other international groups.
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
• Set up in 1930, the BIS is an international
organization that fosters cooperation
among central banks and other agencies
in pursuit of monetary and financial
stability.
• It is the “central banks’ central bank” and
“lender of last resort.”
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
• The BIS functions as:
¤ a forum for international monetary and financial
cooperation;
¤ a bank for central banks;
¤ a center for monetary and economic research;
and
¤ an agent or trustee in connection with
international financial operations.
 Online Application

• To learn more about the WTO and the BIS,

visit:
¤ http://www.wto.org
¤ http://www.bis.org
 Agencies that Facilitate
International Flows
Regional Development Agencies
• Agencies with more regional objectives
relating to economic development include
¤ the Inter-American Development Bank;
¤ the Asian Development Bank;
¤ the African Development Bank; and
¤ the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development.
 Online Application

• Check out the following regional agencies:

¤ Inter-American Development Bank:
http://www.iadb.org
¤ Asian Development Bank: http://www.adb
.org
¤ African Development Bank: http://www.afdb
.org
¤ European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development: http://www.ebrd.com
Impact of International Trade on an MNC’s Value

National Income in Foreign Countries Inflation in Foreign Countries

Trade Agreements Exchange Rate Movements

m 
n 

E  CFj , t   E ER j , t   
 j 1 
Value =   
t =1  1  k  t

 
E (CFj,t ) = expected cash flows in
currency j to be received by the U.S. parent at
the end of period t
E (ERj,t ) = expected exchange rate at
which currency j can be converted to dollars at
 Chapter Review

• Balance of Payments
¤ Current, Capital, and Financial Accounts
• International Trade Flows
¤ Distribution of U.S. Exports and Imports
¤ U.S. Balance of Trade Trend
¤ Recent Changes in North American and
European Trade
¤ Trade Agreements Around the World
 Chapter Review

• Factors Affecting International Trade

Flows
¤ Inflation
¤ National Income
¤ Government Restrictions
¤ Exchange Rates
¤ Interaction of Factors
 Chapter Review

• Correcting a Balance of Trade Deficit

¤ Why a Weak Home Currency is Not A Perfect
Solution
• International Capital Flows
¤ Distribution of DFI by U.S. Firms
¤ Distribution of DFI in the U.S.
¤ Factors Affecting DFI
¤ Factors Affecting International Portfolio
Investment
 Chapter Review

• Agencies that Facilitate International Flows

¤ International Monetary Fund (IMF)
¤ World Bank Group
¤ World Trade Organization (WTO)
¤ Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
¤ Regional Development Agencies
• How International Trade Affects an MNC’s
Value