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Decision Process

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Decision Process

Instructor : Saira Ishfaq


Recap
 In previous lecture we have discussed
 Investment decision basis
 Return
 Risk
 Types of investors on basis of risk
 Trade off between risk and return
DECISION PROCESS
 An investor’s portfolio is simply his collection of investment assets. Wealth is evaluated and managed
within the context of a portfolio, which consists of the assets holding of an investor. Once the portfolio is
established, it is updated by selling existing securities and using the proceeds to buy new securities, by
investing additional funds to increase the overall size of the portfolio, or by selling securities to decrease
the size of the portfolio.

 Investors can choose from a wide range of securities in their attempt to maximize the expected returns
from these opportunities. Investors make two types of decisions in constructing their portfolio: security
analysis and portfolio management.
Security analysis
 The first part of the investment decision process involves the valuation and
analysis of individual securities, which is referred to as security analysis. An
investor who has all his money in saving account would first decide what
proportion of the overall portfolio ought to be moved into stocks, bonds, and so
on. In this way, the broad features of the portfolio are established. First of all it
is necessary to understand the characteristics of the various securities and
factors that affect them. Second, a valuation model is applied to these securities
to estimate their price, or value. Value is a function of the expected return on a
security and the risk attached.
Steps in Security Analysis
 Steps in security analysis:
 1) The analyst considers prospects for the economy, given the state of the
business cycle
 2) The analyst determines which industries are likely to fare well in the
forecasted economic conditions
 3) The analyst chooses particular companies within the favored industries
Prospects of economy
 Boom activities
 Bullish trends, bearish trends
 Business cycle ( Recession, growth)
Favored Industry

 Industries performing good in an economy.


Particular Company
 After identifying prospects & favored industry, select a particular company within an industry.

 Selection of company is made on its past performance, returns, forecasts, Annual reports
. Press releases etc

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