Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Poisson
Poisson 1781-1840
Definition
• The Poisson distribution is a discrete
probability distribution.
• It expresses the probability of a number
of events occurring in a fixed time if
these events occur with a known
average rate and are independent of the
time since the last event.
Examples
• The number of emergency calls
received by an ambulance control in an
hour.
• The number of vehicles approaching a
motorway toll bridge in a five-minute
interval.
• The number of flaws in a metre length
of material.
Assumptions
• Each occurs randomly.
• Events occur singly in a given interval of
time or space.
• The mean number of occurrences in the
given interval, is known and finite.
Probability
Example 1
• A student finds that the average number of
amoebas in 10 ml of pond water from a
particular pond is four. Assuming that the
number of amoebas follows a Poisson
distribution.
• Find the probability that in a 10 ml sample
• a) there are exactly five amoebas.
• b) There are no amoebas
• c) There are fewer than three amoebas.
a) Find the probability that in a 10 ml sample
there are exactly five amoebas.
b) Find the probability that in a 10 ml sample
there are no amoebas
c) Find the probability that in a 10 ml sample
there are fewer than three amoebas.
Useful probabilities to note
Graphics Calc Poisson Dist
For cumulative
Stats Mode select Pcd after
from Calc Poisn
F5 Distribution
For P(X<3),
Then F6 next
F1 Poisn
• Probability = 0.2240
Using formula sheet
• Find the probability
that in one day no
babies are born
hairy.
• Probability = 0.0498
Queue Theory
Example: Suppose a bank knows that on average 60
customers arrive between 10 A.M. and 11 A.M.
daily.
Probability is close to
zero
N must be 231
Two identical racing cars are being tested on a circuit.
For each car, the number of mechanical breakdowns
can be modelled by the Poisson distribution with a
mean of one breakdown in 100 laps. If a car breaks
down it is attended and continues on the circuit. The
first car is tested for 20 laps and the second for 40 laps.