Mann Stats 8e PPT Ch04 (Main)
Mann Stats 8e PPT Ch04 (Main)
Mann Stats 8e PPT Ch04 (Main)
PROBABILITY
Definition
Two or more outcomes (or events) that have the same
probability of occurrence are said to be equally likely
outcomes (or events).
1
P ( Ei )
Total number of outcomes for the experiment
1 1
P(head) .50
Total number of outcomes 2
Similarly,
1
P ( tail) .50
2
120
P (selected woman has played golf at least once) .24
500
f
P ( A)
n
f 10
P (next car is a lemon) .02
n 500
Definition
Subjective probability is the probability assigned to an
event based on subjective judgment, experience,
information, and belief.
Because these two probabilities are not equal, the two events
are dependent.
Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The
intersection of A and B represents the collection of all
outcomes that are common to both A and B and is denoted
by
A and B
Definition
The probability of the intersection of two events is called their
joint probability. It is written as
P(A and B)
P ( A and B ) P( A and B )
P( B | A) and P ( A | B)
P ( A) P( B)
given that P (A ) ≠ 0 and P (B ) ≠ 0.
Hence,
P (B | A) = P(A and B) / P(A) = .03 / .20 = .15
a) Find the probability that all three of them are allergic to it.
b) Find the probability that at least one of the them is not
allergic to it.
P(A and B) = 0
P(A and R) = 0
A or B
P( M or V ) P ( M ) P (V ) P( M and V )
1100 600 200
2500 2500 2500
.44 .24 .08 .60
Hence,
P(F or N) = P(F) + P(N) = .4500 + .1333 = .5833
Total outcomes = 2 x 3 = 6
Definition
The symbol n!, read as “n factorial,” represents the product of
all the integers from n to 1. In other words,
n! = n(n - 1)(n – 2)(n – 3) · · · 3 · 2 · 1
By definition,
0! = 1
7! = 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 5040
10! = 10 · 9 · 8 · 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1
= 3,628,800
(12-4)! = 8! = 8 · 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1
= 40,320
(5-5)! = 0! = 1
Note that 0! is always equal to 1.
Definition
Combinations give the number of ways x elements can be
selected from n elements. The notation used to denote the
total number of combinations is
n Cx
which is read as “the number of combinations of n elements
selected x at a time.”
n!
n Cx
x!(n x)!
where n!, x!, and (n-x)! are read as “n factorial,” “x
factorial,” “n minus x factorial,” respectively.
6! 6! 6 5 4 3 2 1
6 C2 15
2!(6 2)! 2!4! 2 1 4 3 2 1
Thus, there are 15 ways for Kristen to select two ice cream
flavors out of six.
5! 5! 5 4 3 2 1 120
5 C3 10
3!(5 3)! 3!2! 3 2 1 2 1 6 2
n Px
which is read as “the number of permutations of selecting x
elements from n elements.” Permutations are also called
arrangements.
n!
n Px
(n x )!
n! 20! 20!
n Px 6840
(n x )! (20 3)! 17!
Thus, there are 6840 permutations or arrangements for
selecting 3 names out of 20.