Lec-20-Conditional Probability-1

Introduction to statistics and
probability (STAT2111)
Muhammad Aqeel
Visiting lecturer,
University of education Lahore
DG.Khan Campus.
Sameet Baig Visiting lecturer,
University of education Township, Lahore
Conditional probability
The sample space for an experiment must often be changed when
some additional information pertaining to the outcome of the
experiment is received. The effect of such information is to
reduce the sample space by excluding some outcomes as being
impossible which before receiving the information were believed
possible. The probabilities associated with such a reduce
sample space is called conditional probabilities.
 The following example illustrates the concept of conditional probability.
 Let us consider the die throwing experiment with sample space
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}.
 Suppose we wish to know the probability of the outcomes that the die
shows 6, say event A . If before seeing the outcomes ,we are told that
the die shows an even number of dots, say event B, then the information
that the die shows an even number excludes the outcomes 1,3,5 and
thereby reduces sample space to the sample space that consist of 3
outcomes 2,4 and 6 i.e. reduced sample space is B={2,4,6}.
 The desired probability in reduced sample space B is . We called as the
conditional probability of event A because it is computed under the
condition that the die has shown an even number of dots
 P(die shows 6 | die show even number)=P(A|B)=
 IF A and B are two events in a sample space S and if P(B) is not
equal to zero then the conditional probability of event A given
that event B has accrued written as P(A/B) is defined by
P(A/B)=
If P(B)=0 the conditional probability P(A/B) remains undefined .
Similarly, P(B/A)= ,where P(A)>0.
Last example: Find the prob of getting a 6 given that the number is
even.
S={1 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A={6}, B={2, 4, 6}, ={6}
P(A/B)=
Axiom of Probability
 An axiom is a statement that is assumed to be true .Let

S be a sample space with the sample points
E1 ,E2 ,,,,,,,Ei,,,,,En to each sample point we assign the
real number denoted by P(Ei) and called the probability
of event Ei ,that must satisfy the following axioms
 Axiom(i) For any event Ei ,0≤P(Ei) ≤1.
 Axiom(ii) P(S)=1 for the sure events S.
 Axiom(iii) If A and B are mutually exclusive events then
P(AB)=P(A)+P(B).
Axioms
 It should be noted that P(A/B) satisfies all the
axioms of probability, namely
 i) 0
 ii) P(S|B)=1 , [S=B, P(S/B)== ]
iii) P(A1
Provided A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive events
Example 1
 Two coins are tossed .What is the conditional
probability that two heads result given that there is at
least one head ?
 Solution: The sample space S for this experiment is
S={HH, HT, TH, TT}
 Let A represents the event that two heads appear and B
the event that at least one head appear
 Since A={HH}, B={HH, HT, TH} and A
P(A)=, P(B)= and P(A)=
P(A/B)= = =
Example 2
 A man throws two fair dice. What is the probability that the
sum of two dice will be 7, given that (i) the sum is odd, (ii) sum
is greater than 6, (iii) two dice have the same outcomes?
Sample space S for this experiment
Let A =(sum is 7),
(i)B=(Sum is odd)
(ii)C=(sum is greater than6)
(iii)D=(Same outcomes )
A={(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)} , nA=6
B={(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),.,(6,5)}, nB=18
C={(1,6),(2,5),(2,6),(3,4),….......,(6,6)}, nC=21
D={(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)}, nD=6
A{(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(2,5),(6,1)}
A C={1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}
A
P(A)=P(B)=, P(C)= , P(D)=

P(A P(A P(A
By using the definition of conditional probability, we get
(i) P(A/B)= = ==
(ii) P(A/C)= ===
(iii) P(A/D)= =0=0
Playing cards
 Playing cards=52, Red cards= 26, black cards=26

 Number cards= 36, Picture cards= 12, Aces= 4
 Four colors are Heart(13), Diamond(13), Club(13),
Spade (13)
Heart=13
Number
Picture Ace-1
cards=9
cards=3
Q1. Find the probability of getting a
(i) number card (ii) picture card
from a pack of playing cards given that the card is red.
Sol: (i) A= {number card}, nA=36
B={Red Card}, nB=26,
= Red number card, n()=18
P(A/B)=
(ii) C= {picture card}, nC= 12

B={Red Card}, nB=26,
= Red picture card, n()=6
P(Picture card given that the card is Red )
=P(C/B)=
Dependent Events
 Two events A and B in a sample space S are said to be
dependent if the occurrence of one event affects the
occurrence of the other event. That is the prob of any
one event is dependent on the other.
 In conditional probability, P(A|B), Event A depends
upon event B. i.e., event A can only occur if event B
has already occurred.
 From the formula of conditional probability,
 ≠0
MULTIPLICATION LAW FOR DEPENDENT EVENTS
If two events E₁ & E₂ are dependent, then
P (E₁ ∩ E₂) = P(E₁ ) . P(E₂ ⃒ E₁ ); provided P(E₁ ) ≠ 0
or P (E₁ ∩ E₂) = P(E₂ ) . P(E₁ ⃒ E₂ ); provided P(E₂ ) ≠ 0

Example: Dependent Events
 A bag contains 4 red and 6 black balls. Two balls are
taken out of the bag one after another without
replacement. Find the prob of getting (i) both red balls
(ii) balls of different colour.
 Sol: Event A = {draw first ball}, Event B = {draw 2nd ball}.
Events A and B are dependent.
 (i) P(both red balls)=
 = 4/10. 3/9
 (ii)P(both balls are of different colour)=
 =4/10. 6/9 + 6/10. 4/9

 = 48/90
Independent Events
 Two events A and B in a sample space S are said to be
independent if the occurrence of one event does not
affect the occurrence of the other event.
 That is the prob of any one event is not dependent on
the other.
 Here P(A|B)=P(A)
 From the formula of conditional probability,

≠0
MULTIPLICATION LAW FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS
If two events E₁ & E₂ are independent, then

P (E₁∩ E₂) = P(E₁ ) . P(E₂).
For independent events,

P(E₁ ⃒ E₂ )= P(E₁) and P(E₂ ⃒ E₁)=P(E₂).
Exp: Independent Events
 Two Coins are tossed. Find the prob of getting two
heads.
 S={HH, HT, TH, TT}, P(HH)=1/4
 Event A= Head on 1st coin, P(A)= ½
 Event B= Head on 2nd coin, P(B)= ½
 Events A and B are independent,
 P(HH)=
EXAMPLE:

Lec-20-Conditional Probability-1

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Lec-20-Conditional Probability-1

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Lec-20-Conditional Probability-1

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Introduction to statistics and

 An axiom is a statement that is assumed to be true .Let

P(A)=P(B)=, P(C)= , P(D)=

 Playing cards=52, Red cards= 26, black cards=26

(ii) C= {picture card}, nC= 12

If two events E₁ & E₂ are dependent, then

P (E₁ ∩ E₂) = P(E₁ ) . P(E₂ ⃒ E₁ ); provided P(E₁ ) ≠ 0

or P (E₁ ∩ E₂) = P(E₂ ) . P(E₁ ⃒ E₂ ); provided P(E₂ ) ≠ 0

 =4/10. 6/9 + 6/10. 4/9

If two events E₁ & E₂ are independent, then

For independent events,

You might also like