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WEEK 7 - Discrete Probability Distribution (Poisson)

The document discusses the Poisson distribution, which models the number of events occurring within a specified time interval, and includes its properties, formula, and applications. It provides examples of Poisson experiments, calculations of probabilities, and explains the mean and variance of the distribution. Additionally, it highlights the use of Excel and Poisson tables for probability calculations.

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grace musa
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10 views

WEEK 7 - Discrete Probability Distribution (Poisson)

The document discusses the Poisson distribution, which models the number of events occurring within a specified time interval, and includes its properties, formula, and applications. It provides examples of Poisson experiments, calculations of probabilities, and explains the mean and variance of the distribution. Additionally, it highlights the use of Excel and Poisson tables for probability calculations.

Uploaded by

grace musa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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BUS 6225B:

BUSINESS STATISTICS

LE C TURE 6-2
D I S C R ET E P R O B A B I L I T Y
D I S T R I B UT I O N S
L E C T U R ER : D R G R A C E M U SA
C L A SS: M B A 2 0 2 5
Discrete II:
Poisson Distribution
Learning Objectives
 Appreciate the concept of the Poisson
distribution
 Recognize an experiment whose outcomes
follow a Poisson probability distribution
 Demonstrate and understanding of how to
calculate Poisson probabilities
 Determine the expectation (mean) and
variance of a Poisson distribution
 Demonstrate and understanding of how to
use Excel to find Poisson probabilities
3
Basic Concepts

 The Poisson distribution is used to model the number of events occurring within a given
time interval. The formula for the Poisson probability density (mass) function is
 
p ( X k ) 
 k
e
k!
  is the shape parameter which indicates the average number of events in the given
time interval.
 Some events are rather rare - they don't happen that often. For instance, car accidents
are the exception rather than the rule. Still, over a period of time, we can say
something about the nature of rare events.
 The distribution was derived by the French mathematician Siméon Poisson in 1837,
and the first application was the description of the number of deaths by horse kicking in
the Prussian army.
 Example:

a) An example is the improvement of traffic safety, where the.government wants to know


whether seat belts reduce the number of death in car accidents. Here, the Poisson
distribution can be a useful tool to answer questions about benefits of seat belse.
 Death of infants, the number of misprints in a book, the number of customers arriving,
among others
4
Poisson Experiment
A Poisson experiment possesses the
following properties:
1. The experiment consists of counting the
number of times a certain event occurs during
a given unit of time or over a unit of space.
2. The probability that an event occurs in an
interval is the same for all intervals of equal
size, and is proportional to the size of the
interval.
3. The number of events that occur in any
interval is independent of the number of
events that occur in any other interval.
4. The probability of more than one occurrence
in a very small interval is close to zero.

5
Illustrative Example

A study was carried out to examine the


number of emails received by employees of
at large Kenyan company. The study found
that on average an employee receives 200
emails per week.
– The experiment consists of counting the number of
emails received per week.
– If an average of 200 emails are received per week
then an average of 200/5=40 will be received per
day.
– The number of emails that arrive in a day is
independent of the number of emails that arrive in
any other day. 6
Poisson Random Variable

 The random variable in a Poisson experiment is the number of


occurrences of an event, within a specified time or space.
 It is called the Poisson random variable.
 It is a discrete random variable as the possible values of the
random variable can be listed: 0, 1, 2,
Examples:-
 Number of telephone calls received at a switchboard in a
minute.
 Number of machine breakdowns during a night shift.
 Number of customers arriving at a bank in an hour.
 Number of defective items manufactured

7
Poisson Distribution
 If events happen at a constant rate over time,
the Poisson Distribution gives The Probability
of X Numberof Events Occurring in a time T.
 This distribution tells us the Probability of All
Possible Numbers of Counts, from 0 to
Infinity.
 If X= # of counts per second, then the Poisson
probability that X =k k (a

particular count) is:
 e
p ( X k ) 
k!

 Here, λ ≡ the average number of counts per


second. 8
Example 2

A paint factory uses “Agent A” in the paint


manufacturing process. There is an average
of 3 particles of Agent A in a cubic meter of
air emitted during the production process.
The number of Agent A particles has a
Poisson distribution with mean 3 particles
per cubic meter of air emitted from the
factory.
Let X = the number of particles of Agent A in
a cubic meter of air emitted from the factory.
X= 3 particles per cubic meter.
9
a. What is the probability that there will be 5
particles of Agent A in a cubic meter of air
emitted fromPthe factory?
(X  5) 
 3
e 3 5

5!
0.1008

b. What is the probability that there will


be no Agent A particles in a cubic meter of
air emission?

e  3 30
P ( X  0) 
0!
 0.0498

10
c. What is the probability that there will be
less than 2 particles of agent A in a cubic
meter of air emitted from the factory?
P ( X  2)  P ( X 0)  P ( X 1)
e  3 31
0.0498 
1!
0.0498  0.1494
0.1992

11
Poisson Tables
An alternative to calculating Poisson
probabilities using the formula is to use
Passion Tables
The probabilities given in this table are
cumulative probabilities.
P ( X  k )  P ( X  0 )  P ( X 1)  ...  P ( X  k )
k
 P ( X  x)
x 0

12
Example 4

The number of accidents that occur at a


busy intersection is Poisson distributed with
a mean of 3.5 per week. Find the probability
of the following events:
a. Less than three accidents in a week
b. Five or more accidents in a week
c. No accidents today

13
Let X = the number of accidents per week
Lambda = 3.5 accidents per week
a) The probability that there less than three accidents in
a week is
P ( X  3)  P ( X  2 )
 0 .3 2 1
b) The probability that there are five or more accidents in
a week is P ( X  5 ) 1  P ( X  4 )
1  0 . 7 2 5
 0 .2 7 5

14
Mean and Variance for the
Poisson Distribution

 
 The Mean distribution, The Mean is:

 
 The Variance of this distribution is also given by
2

 
 The Standard deviation is therefore

For a Poisson Distribution,


the variance and mean are
equal!
Example

 The number of accidents that occur at a busy


intersection is Poisson distributed with a
mean of 3.5 per week.
a. What is the expected number of accidents per
week?
The expected number of accidents per
week:, E(X)=3.5
What is the variance of the number of
accidents per week?
The variance of the number of accidents per
week V(X)=3.5
16
END
Q/A

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