Note 6 of 5E

Chapter 5
Useful Discrete Probability
Distributions

Binomial
Distribution

Note 6 of 5E
Review
I. Whats in last lectures?
Experiment, Event, Sample space, Probability,
Counting rules, Conditional probability,
Bayess rule, random variables, Discrete and
Continuous probability distributions, mean and
variance and Normal distribution.
Chapter 1,2,3,4,6,7
II. What's in this lecture?
Binomial distribution and its applications.
Note 6 of 5E
Introduction
Discrete random variables take on
only a finite or countable number of
values.
There are several useful discrete
probability distributions. We will
learn Binomial,hypergeometric and
Poisson distributions.

Note 6 of 5E
Events from experiments
While it is educational to learn about
general discrete and continuous random
variables, such variables are not much use
in describing real life events.
The result of experiments usually can be
expected to elaborate some distributions
with special properties.
Note 6 of 5E
Bernoulli trials
In experiments where a certain process is carried
out repeatedly, with each process independent of
the others, it is possible to deduce(to derive) the
result of an event.
In particular, if we can separate the outcomes of
an experiment into two groups, one which is
desirable, and we call it success, while the other a
failure, then we have the case of a Bernoulli trial.
Note 6 of 5E
Success and failure
Take the weather. If we wish for a sunny day, then
we call a sunny day a success, and a rainy day a
failure.
A person may expect a grade B+ or better as a
success, then anything less will be a failure.
If you are expected to reach an office before 10.00
a.m. then arriving before then is a success, and
being late will be a failure.
Note 6 of 5E
Examples of Bernoulli
Variables

Sex (male or female)
Major (business or not business)
Defective? (defective or non-defective)
Response to a T-F question
(true or false)
Where student lives
(on-campus or off-campus)
Credit application result (accept or deny)
Own home? (own or rent)
Course result (Pass or Fail)

Note 6 of 5E
l Consider a situation where there are only two possible outcomes (a
Bernoulli trial)
Example:
u flipping a coin
The outcome is either a head or tail
u rolling a dice
For example, 6 or not 6 (i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
Label the possible outcomes by the variable k
We want to find the probability P(x) for event x to occur
Since k can take on only 2 values we define those values as:
x = 0 or x = 1
u Let the probability for outcome x to occur be: P(x = 0) = q
(remember 0 q 1)
u something must happen so
P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) = 1 (mutually exclusive events)
P(x = 1) = p = 1 - q
u We can write the probability distribution P(k) as:
P(x) = p
x
q
1- x
(Bernoulli distribution)
u coin toss: define probability for a head as P(1)
P(x =1= head) = 0.5 and P(x=0=tail) = 0.5 too!
u dice rolling: define probability for a six to be rolled from a six sided dice
as P(x =1)
P(x=1) = 1/6 and P(x =0 =not a six) = 5/6.
James Bernoulli (Jacob I)
born in Basel, Switzerland
Dec. 27, 1654-Aug. 16, 1705
He is one 8 mathematicians
in the Bernoulli family.
(from Wikipedia)
Bernoulli & Binomial
Note 6 of 5E

Lets do something more complicated:

Suppose we have N trials (e.g. we flip a coin N times) what is the probability to get x successes
(= heads)?
l Consider tossing a coin twice. The possible outcomes are:
no heads: P(x = 0) = q
2

one head: P(x = 1) = qp + pq (toss 1 is a tail, toss 2 is a head or toss 1 is head, toss 2 is a tail)
= 2pq
two heads: P(x = 2) = p
2

We want the probability distribution P(x, N, p) where

Note: P(x =0)+P(x=1)+P(x=2)=q
2
+ qp + pq +p
2
= (p+q)
2
= 1 (as it should!)

x = number of success (e.g. number of heads in a coin toss)
N = number of trials (e.g. number of coin tosses)
p = probability for a success (e.g. 0.5 for a head)
we don't care which of the tosses is a head
so
there are two outcomes that give one head
Note 6 of 5E
Binomial Distribution
If we repeat a Bernoulli trial many times, and
count the number of successes using X, then we
shall have a binomial distribution if
1. Each trial is independent of the other;
2. The probability of each success remains the
same for each trial.
If the probability of each success is p, and we
run the experiment n times, then suppose we use
X to represent the number of successes, we shall
write X ~ Bin(n, p).
Note 6 of 5E
P(X= x)
If X~Bin(n, p), then
1. P(X=0) designates probability of no success at
all. This is equal to (1-p)
n
.
2. P(X=n) means probability of getting all n
successes. This is equal to p
n
.
3. For any other x, P(X=x)=
n
C
x
p
x
(1-p)
n-x
.

NOTE: For brevity, we usually use the symbol q to
represent 1-p. Hence the formula is frequently
written as P(X=x )=
n
C
x
p
x
q
n-x
.
Note 6 of 5E
The Binomial Probability
Distribution
For a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability p of success on a given trial, the
probability of x successes in n trials is
. 1 ! 0 and 1 ) 2 )...( 2 )( 1 ( ! with

)! ( !
!
Recall
. ,... 2 , 1 , 0 for
)! ( !
!
) (
=

=
=

= = =

n n n n
x n x
n
C
n x q p
x n x
n
q p C k x P
n
x
x n x x n x n
x
Note 6 of 5E
The Binomial Random Variable
The coin-tossing experiment is a
simple example of a binomial
random variable. Toss a fair coin n
= 3 times and record x = number of
heads.
x p(x)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
Note 6 of 5E
The Binomial Random Variable
Many situations in real life resemble the coin
toss, but the coin is not necessarily fair, so that
P(H) = 1/2.
Example: A geneticist samples 10
people and counts the number who
have a gene linked to Alzheimers
disease(loss of mental ability)
Person
Coin:
Head:
Tail:
Number of tosses:

P(H):
Has gene
Doesnt have gene
n = 10
P(has gene) = proportion
in the population who
have the gene.
Note 6 of 5E
The Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of n identical
trials.
2. Each trial results in one of two outcomes,
success (S) or failure (F).
3. The probability of success on a single trial
is p and remains constant from trial to trial.
The probability of failure is q = 1 p.
4. The trials are independent.
5. We are interested in x, the number of
successes in n trials.
Note 6 of 5E
Binomial or Not?
The independence is a key assumption
that often violated in real life applications
Select two people from the U.S.
population, and suppose that 15% of the
population has the Alzheimers gene.
For the first person, p = P(gene) = .15
For the second person, p ~ P(gene) = .15,
even though one person has been removed
from the population.
Note 6 of 5E
Binomial or Not?
2 out of 20 PCs are defective. We randomly select 3
for testing. Is this a binomial experiment?
1. The experiment consists of n=3 identical trials
2. Each trial result in one of two outcomes
3. The probability of success (finding the defective) is
2/20 and remains the same
4. The trials are not independent. For example,
P( success on the 2nd trial | success on the 1
st
trial) =
1/19, not 2/20

Rule of thumb: if the sample size n is relatively large to
the population size N, say n/N >= .05, the resulting
experiment would not be binomial.
Note 6 of 5E
Bin(n, p) Example
If a Bernoulli trial has a success rate of 0.2, and it is
carried out 7 times, what is the probability we
get
(i) 4 successes?
(ii) No success?
Solution: Let X represent the number of successes.
Then X ~ Bin(7, 0.2).
(i) So P(X=4) =
7
C
4
0.2
4
0.8
3
= 0.0287.
(ii) P(X=0) = 0.8
7
= 0.2097.
Note 6 of 5E
Bin(n, p) Example
It is known that in 35% of accidents involving motorcycles, the
rider dies. On a day when 10 such accidents are reported,
what is the probability
(i) 2 riders die?
(ii) At least 3 riders die?
Solution: Let D represent the number of deaths.
Then D ~ Bin(10, 0.35).
(i) So P(D=2) =
10
C
2
0.35
2
0.65
8
= 0.17565.
(ii) In this case, we want P(D>3). This means we need to add
up P(D=3), P(D=4) P(D=10). However, we note that
the sum of all probabilities is 1. So, we may also obtain
P(D>3) as 1 [P(D=0)+ P(D=1)+ P(D=2)] = 1
[0.01346+0.07249+0.17565] =0.7384 (correct to 4
decimal places)
Note 6 of 5E
Example
25 trainees undergo a perseverance test. Based on records, it
is known that 40% of them will drop off before
completion. What is the probability that
(i) Up to 6 of them will drop?
(ii) 4 to 8 of them will drop?
Solution: Let X represent the number of trainees who drop.
Then X~Bin(25, 0.4)
(i) P(Xs6) = 0.0736 [Read from table]
(ii) P(4 sX s8) = P(X s8) P(X s3)
= 0.2735 0.0024 = 0.2711.
Note that in (ii), we have to express the value as the
difference between two others.
Note 6 of 5E
Example
The head of department calls a policy meeting among
his 23 clerical staff. From experience, he knows that
15% of them will be absent. What is the probability
(i) 3 to 5 of them will be absent?
(ii) At least 3 of them will be absent?

Solution: A = number absent ~ Bin(23, 0.15)
(i) We need P(3sAs5). In this case, we can read P(As5) =
0.8811, and P(As2) = 0.3080, so P(3sAs5) = P(As5)
P(As2) = 0.5731.
(contd)
Note 6 of 5E
Example (contd)
(i) (contd) However, as P(3sAs5) = P(A=3) + P(A=4) +
P(A=5), it is just as easy to calculate the three values
using the formula. Now
P(A=3) =
23
C
3
0.15
3
0.85
20
= 0.23167;
P(A=4) =
23
C
4
0.15
4
0.85
19
= 0.20442;
P(A=5) =
23
C
5
0.15
5
0.85
18
= 0.13708;
So P(3sAs5) = 0.23167+0.20442+0.13708=0.6618 (4 d.p.)
(ii) The event of A > 3 need to be interpreted as the event
complement to A s 2. Hence we decide that P(A>3) = 1
P(As2) = 1 0.3382 = 0.6618.
Note 6 of 5E
n =
p = x =
success =
Example
A marksman hits a target 80% of the
time. He fires five shots at the target. What is
the probability that exactly 3 shots hit the
target?
3 3
3
) 3 (

= =
n n
q p C x P
5
.8 hit # of hits
3 5 3
) 2 (. ) 8 (.
! 2 ! 3
! 5

=
2048 . ) 2 (. ) 8 (. 10
2 3
= =
Note 6 of 5E
Example
What is the probability that more than 3 shots
hit the target?
5 5 5 5
5
4 5 4 5
4
) 3 (

+ = > q p C q p C x P
0 5 1 4
) 2 (. ) 8 (.
! 0 ! 5
! 5
) 2 (. ) 8 (.
! 1 ! 4
! 5
+ =
7373 . ) 8 (. ) 2 (. ) 8 (. 5
5 4
= + =
Note 6 of 5E
Cumulative
Probability Tables
You can use the cumulative probability tables
to find probabilities for selected binomial
distributions.
Find the table for the correct value of n.
Find the column for the correct value of p.
The row marked r gives the cumulative
probability, P(x s r) = P(x = 0) ++ P(x = r)
Note 6 of 5E
Example
k p = .80
0 .000
1 .007
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672
5 1.000
What is the probability that more
than 3 shots hit the target?
P(x > 3) = 1 - P(x s 3)
= 1 - .263 = .737
Check from formula:
P(x > 3) = .7373
Note 6 of 5E
Example
Here is the probability distribution
for x = number of hits. What
are the mean and standard
deviation for x?
89 . ) 2 )(. 8 (. 5
4 ) 8 (. 5
= =
=
= = =
npq
np
o

: deviation Standard
: Mean

Note 6 of 5E
Properties of binomial
distribution
p is small, its main values
For X~Bin(n, p), the mean
= np, and the variance
o
2
= npq.
When p is close to 0.5,
(say from 0.3 to 0.7) the
distribution will be quite
symmetric.
Note 6 of 5E
Bar charts for p=0.4 and
p=0.9
Note 6 of 5E
Tables of binomial
distributions
In practice, it is not desirable to carry out
calculations such as P(D=3), P(D=4) P(D=10)
as for the last example. Apart from time, this
tedious work may lead to errors.
Particularly when calculators are not available,
statisticians find it more convenient to use ready-
made tables of binomial distributions.
The table provides probabilities cumulative from
below. I.e. the table shows P(Xs r) for each r, not
P(X=r).
Note 6 of 5E
Table for Binomial
Distribution
The binomial distribution table shows cumulative
probabilities [P(Xs r)] for r = 0, n. The table
list the probabilities separately for n=1, 2, 20, 23,
25, 27, and 30.
The table shows p=0.01, 0.09 (first part) 0.10,
0.15, 0.50 (second part).
For values of p beyond 0.5, we have to use
complementary procedures. For values between
the given p, and n=21, 22, 26, 28 and 29, we may
use linear interpolation for approximate answers.
Note 6 of 5E
Use and Limitations of
Table
Going back to Example 2, we could have referred to the
table, and read off P(Ds2) which is 0.2616, and hence
obtain P(D>3) as 1 0.2616 = 0.7384.
However, space constraint means that only ns30 can be
accommodated in a small handbook, and we only have
values of p=0.01, 0.09, 0.1, 0.15, 0.5. We have to deal
with cases of other p values ourselves.
In the following examples, you will learn to deal with each
of the cases when the table can be used, and how to
overcome the limitations when they occur.
Note 6 of 5E
Key Concepts
The Binomial Random Variable
1. Five characteristics: n identical trials, each resulting in
either success S or failure F; probability of success is p and
remains constant from trial to trial; trials are independent; and
x is the number of successes in n trials.
2. Calculating binomial probabilities
a. Formula:
b. Cumulative binomial tables

3. Mean of the binomial random variable: = np
4. Variance and standard deviation: o
2
= npq and

x n x n
x
q p C x X P

= = ) (
npq = o
Note 6 of 5E
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