Shell uses scenarios to inform strategic planning by exploring multiple potential futures rather than making predictions. Scenarios help stretch perspectives and consider uncertainties. While Shell's current portfolio is designed to be resilient across a range of scenarios, scenarios support robust decision making about strategy, portfolio choices, and individual opportunities.
Royal Dutch Shell plc second quarter 2017 results analyst presentationsShell plc
Royal Dutch Shell reported its second quarter 2017 results. Key highlights included underlying CCS earnings of $3.6 billion, cash flow from operations of $11.3 billion, and a dividend of $0.47 per share. The company is reshaping Shell through ongoing divestments totaling over $25 billion completed, announced or in advanced progress. Capital investment is being managed with discipline, efficiency and flexibility. Operational excellence initiatives are driving down costs. The company expects to generate $38 billion in cash flow from operations over the last four quarters at an oil price of less than $50 per barrel.
Royal Dutch Shell plc Downstream Open House webcastShell plc
The document discusses Royal Dutch Shell's downstream business. It highlights that Shell aims to deliver a world-class investment case for its downstream operations through transformational and profitable growth. By 2020, Shell expects organic free cash flow from its downstream business to reach $6-7 billion per year, growing to $9-12 billion by 2025. This will be achieved by increasing the resilience of Shell's downstream portfolio and leveraging new technologies. The document also outlines Shell's strategies for its various downstream businesses, including refining, chemicals, marketing and retail.
This document summarizes a presentation given at the APM Conference in Manchester on November 7, 2018. The presentation discussed research on project leadership skills and how Shell has applied these findings. It included an introduction by Sarah Coleman, an overview of Shell's experience by Tom Frost, and an exercise. The research identified eight key "survival skills" for project leaders: anticipating, judgment and decision-making, seeing the big picture, building credibility and confidence, being organizationally intelligent, learning, resolving conflicts and collaborating, and creating an effective project culture. Shell has worked to embed these skills in its people development programs and project leadership framework to improve its project delivery performance.
ISES 2013 - Day 2 - Mitchell Winkler (Director Arctic, Shell) - Arctic DrillingStudent Energy
Shell has significant Arctic exploration and production positions across multiple countries and sees the Arctic as important for meeting future energy demand. Drilling in the Arctic comes with great responsibility to protect the environment and requires comprehensive risk management, including barriers and response plans to control hazards. Shell advocates for a stepwise technology-based approach and collaborating with stakeholders to co-create solutions for developing the Arctic responsibly.
Shell responsible investor briefing in London – April 16, 2018Shell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer, Hans Wijers, Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Corporate and Social Responsibility Committee, Harry Brekelmans, Projects & Technology Director, Donny Ching, Legal Director, and Maarten Wetselaar, Integrated Gas & New Energies Director, presented in London during the annual responsible investors briefing.
Royal Dutch Shell plc third quarter 2020 resultsShell plc
Royal Dutch Shell reported its third quarter 2020 results. Adjusted earnings were $1.0 billion, impacted by lower prices. Cash flow from operations excluding working capital was $9.0 billion, demonstrating financial resilience. Shell aims to increase shareholder distributions to 20-30% of cash flow from operations once net debt reaches $65 billion, and will grow its dividend by around 4% annually.
The Shell LNG Outlook, launched in London on February 20th, is an assessment of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. It finds that China and India were two of the fastest growing buyers, with the number of LNG importers worldwide up to 35, from 10 at the start of the century.
Read the Shell LNG Outlook in full at http://www.shell.com/lngoutlook
The document discusses Shell's operations across the energy supply chain from upstream exploration and production through midstream transportation and downstream manufacturing and sales. It provides overviews of Shell's activities in upstream oil and gas extraction, midstream pipeline transportation of crude oil and natural gas, and downstream refining and petrochemical production. It also identifies supplier opportunities in areas like equipment, services, infrastructure, and logistics across the different segments of the energy supply chain.
Royal Dutch Shell plc - Enhanced disclosures webcastShell plc
On Tuesday, May 4 Tjerk Huysinga, Executive Vice President Investor Relations, Sinead Gorman, Executive Vice President Finance Upstream, Brian Eggleston, Executive Vice President Finance Downstream, Frank Lemmink, Executive Vice President Finance Integrated Gas and Renewables and Energy Solutions and Roland Ilube, Senior Vice President Finance Mobility host an enhanced quarterly disclosures webcast.
This document summarizes a workshop on risk-based measurement, monitoring, and verification of carbon capture and storage projects hosted by Shell Canada Energy and the Quest subsurface team in Mobile, Alabama on May 16-17, 2012. The workshop aimed to share knowledge on evaluating and ensuring the effectiveness and safety of capturing and storing carbon dioxide underground. It focused on developing risk-based approaches to monitoring carbon dioxide movement and confirming storage permanence.
This presentation was given by Michelle van der Duin, Senior Project Development & Delivery Manager and Head of Shell's Onshore LNG Programme Office, to delegates at the APM Women in Project Management SIG's annual conference 2015.
The conference, entitled 'Driving the future', was held at etc.venues Dexter House in London and saw some 170 delegates and was sponsored by BAE Systems.
The agenda was full of stimulating talks and interactive debate designed to facilitate knowledge-sharing and fresh insights for attendees.
Delegates will left the conference armed with new ideas for progressing their own careers and personal development and, of course, bursting with enthusiasm to promote the profession and encourage a new generation of project managers.
The objectives of the conference were:
- Reinforce the importance of women in project management
- Highlight the importance of women’s contribution to the economy through practical examples
- Provide opportunities for delegates to hear from leading professionals and to be inspired to drive the future in their own careers.
- Provide perspectives on what to ask of employers improve project delivery
- Provide food for thought for delegates to help them drive their own objectives and achieve their career goals
Scaling Advanced Analytics at Shell with Krishna Somasundaram and Bryce BartmannDatabricks
Learn how Shell leveraged Databricks’ Unified Analytics Platform as the cornerstone of their Advanced Analytics COE and how this resulted in a more unified data team collaboratively speeding time to value by reducing unnecessary churn as they operationalized production workloads on projects ranging from Inventory Optimization to Machine Vision.
Moving Towards AI at Shell with Daniel Jeavons (Shell)Databricks
1) The document discusses Shell's use of artificial intelligence and digital technologies, highlighting several AI projects currently underway in areas like retail analytics, predictive maintenance, and customer insights.
2) It notes the development of an "Intelligent Cloud & Intelligent Edge" and efforts to shift company culture to better adopt AI.
3) Metrics are provided on the growth of Shell's digital and data science capabilities, including over 120 data science professionals, 2,000 members of an analytics network, and 100+ current data science projects.
- EOG Resources Inc. is acquiring Yates Petroleum Corporation for $2.5 billion, adding 1.6 million net acres to its portfolio.
- The acquisition significantly increases EOG's core positions in the Delaware Basin, Powder River Basin, and Northwest Shelf, providing an additional 1,740 net premium drilling locations and estimated premium net resource potential of 1.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
- The transaction will be completed through the issuance of $2.3 billion in EOG equity and $151 million in cash and debt assumption, and is expected to close in early October.
This document provides information about EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG), an oil and gas exploration and production company. It includes EOG's stock symbol, dividend, shares outstanding, and investor relations contacts. The document also contains cautionary statements about forward-looking estimates and non-GAAP financial measures. Additionally, it summarizes EOG's strategy of focusing on premium wells that offer high rates of return even at low oil prices, and outlines EOG's plan to deliver double-digit oil production growth in 2017 through its premium drilling strategy.
Royal Dutch Shell plc second quarter 2016 results webcast presentationShell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live audio webcast of the second quarter 2016 results on Thursday July 28, 2016
Royal Dutch Shell plc Brazil shareholder visit 2016Shell plc
On 9, 10, 11 November 2016, Shell holds a field visit for shareholders in Brazil. During the visit, shareholders attend presentations given by senior Shell representatives, which focus on Shell’s operations in Brazil.
Shell analyzed data from over 100,000 graduate applications to identify opportunities to streamline their recruitment assessments. They found that some assessments were not providing additional value. Shell worked to streamline the assessment process while keeping the most robust assessments. This resulted in a new streamlined process with fewer assessments that provided the necessary information with a better candidate experience.
Deepwater Energy Conference (DEC)2018 was held in Haikou, China. This event featured a dynamic group of speakers who discussed how deepwater technologies unlock new resources and develop in different ways. For additional details see: http://www.decchina.cn/en
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations, growing by 29 million tonnes in 2017, according to Shell's latest LNG Outlook. Based on current demand projections, Shell sees potential for a supply shortage developing in the mid-2020s, unless new LNG production project commitments are made soon.
Initiated by the owner operator community, Capital Facilities Information Handover Specification (CFIHOS – pronounced “see-fos”) is an emerging standard for a consistent approach to information handover meant to reduce the inefficiencies and costs in the information supply chain.
As one of the initiative’s earliest adopters, Mike Curtin, VP Capital Project IM/IT, explains in this presentation how Shell’s project execution approach is evolving to align with the new standards, the impacts of CFIHOS on the industry and who is affected, and finally how technology is changing to support the shift. Mike also covers Shell’s journey from document to data centric information management for CFIHOS readiness, and finally,the next steps in their path towards digitalization across greenfield project execution and operations of existing assets.
AVEVA World Conference NA - Mike Curtin, ShellAVEVA-Americas
Initiated by the owner operator community, Capital Facilities
Information Handover Specification (CFIHOS - pronounced
“see-fos”) is an emerging standard for a consistent approach to
information handover meant to reduce the inefficiencies and costs in the information supply chain. As one of the initiative’s earliest adopters, Mike Curtin, VP Capital Project IM/IT, discusses how Shell’s project execution approach is evolving to align with the new standards, the impacts of CFIHOS on the industry and who is affected, and finally how technology is changing to support the shift. Mike also covers Shell’s journey from document to data centric information management for CFIHOS readiness, and finally, the next steps in their path towards digitalization across greenfield project execution and operations of existing assets.
Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014Shell plc
Shell’s management hosted an investor day in New York on September 5, 2014, including presentations by Ben Van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of, Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer of, Marvin Odum, Upstream Americas Director of, and John Abbott, Downstream Director of Royal Dutch Shell plc.
Royal Dutch Shell plc third quarter 2016 results analyst webcast presentationShell plc
Royal Dutch Shell reported its third quarter 2016 results. Key points included:
- Earnings of $2.8 billion, down from $2.4 billion in the third quarter of 2015, driven by lower oil and gas prices being offset by higher volumes and lower costs.
- Oil and gas production of 3.25 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 3 million the previous year.
- LNG liquefaction volumes of 3.75 million tonnes.
- Continued focus on re-shaping Shell through consolidating BG, updating capital investment guidance, reducing costs and divestments.
Shell Socially responsible investors briefing in London - April 24, 2017Shell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer, Hans Wijers, Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Corporate and Social Responsibility Committee, Donny Ching, Legal Director, and Guy Outen, EVP Strategy and Portfolio, presented to Shell’s Socially Responsible Investors in London during the annual socially responsible investors briefing.
Royal Dutch Shell reported its fourth quarter 2017 results on February 1, 2018. Key highlights included strong earnings and delivery, but cash flow was impacted by timing effects. For the full year 2017, Shell reported earnings of $15.8 billion and cash flow from operations of $35.7 billion, while returning $27.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Looking ahead, Shell expects to invest $25-30 billion annually through 2020 to strengthen its portfolio and deliver robust growth.
This document provides an investor presentation for Royal Dutch Shell. It summarizes Shell's strategy to thrive in the energy transition by focusing on capital discipline, reducing costs, and positioning its portfolio for long-term relevance. It highlights Shell's confidence in achieving $25-30 billion in annual free cash flow by 2020-2021 and growing free cash flow per share through 2025. The presentation also provides financial summaries of Shell's earnings, divestments, cash flow, debt, and return on capital employed, showing its transformation into a world-class investment case.
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live analyst video webcast of the 2016 fourth quarter and full year results on Thursday February 2, 2017.
Information Day, Sept 2021
Europe begins to reposition itself in the world, by taking on greater responsibility for its own safety and well-being.
The first call for proposals.
This captures the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on SMB business operations, their financial performance, the actions that they have taken to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. This report was conducted from May 28-31, 2020, and captures the views of more than 30,000 business owners, managers & employees worldwide. The survey aims to provide a point-in-time snapshot of the online SMB sector – more specifically, those with Facebook Business Pages – in 50 countries. NOTE It is not designed to reflect the entire business population of a given country or region.
Facebook Group, IBRD World Bank, OECD
Liu He (Harvard MPA´95) compares two global crises: the Great Depression of 1929 and the Great Recession of 2008. This study was published in China in the summer of 2012. The objective of the project was to understand past events in order “to navigate the ongoing financial crisis safely and respond more proactively by learning from history.” With the perspective of an insider who supported Chinese leaders in making choices that allowed China’s economy not only to weather the crisis, but to outperform all other economies since the crisis, he provides a nuanced account of the past and astute clues for the future. While he doesn’t say so, the brute fact is that since the 2008 financial crisis, nearly 40% of all the growth in the global economy has taken place in just one country: China, despite its having only 15% of the world’s population and less than 20% of its income.
Original is at https://book.douban.com/subject/21964791/
BOND Capital is a global technology investment firm that supports visionary founders throughout their life cycle of innovation & growth. BOND’s founding partners have backed industry pioneers such as DocuSign, Peloton, Spotify, Square & Uber.
by Mary, Noah, Mood, Juliet, Daegwon, Paul & the BOND Team.
European Investment Fund, Invest Europe : Data-driven insights about VC-backe...Amalist Client Services
EUR 51bn in nearly 9000 Venture Capital-invested firms in 2007-15 : analyse their characteristics as well as subsequent performance.
VC cannot change the business reality where some firms make it while others cannot, but it can be the deciding factor in a start-up’s road to success. venture capital may not be that impactful for low growth companies.
December 2019
This document provides an executive summary of the 2019 Yearbook of Global Climate Action. It highlights examples of climate action being taken by cities, businesses, and civil society organizations. It finds that international cooperative initiatives aimed at climate action are achieving higher levels of output and performance over time. Momentum for climate action was built in 2019 through regional climate weeks and the UN Climate Action Summit. Key messages are that continued support is needed for implementing climate actions, enhancing collaboration, and increasing climate ambition from all actors. The summary emphasizes the urgent need to close global emissions gaps to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
World´s 5th largest population, 9th largest eco & a govt encouraging competition in highly concentrated banking system....by FT Partners, June 2019
(Fintech Industry research from reputed fintech-only house)
By 2018 China had created a $25 trillion capital market with $13 trillion in equity market capitalization on the Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and $12 trillion in various fixed income instruments traded in the interbank markets.
China´s asset management industry is beginning to rival that of the US. This report looks at the industry by tracking its past, looking at the present, and predicting its future. April 2019.
This report is based on the views expressed during, and short papers contributed by speakers at, a workshop organised by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service as part of its academic outreach program. Offered as a means to support ongoing discussion, the report does not constitute an analytical document, nor does it represent any formal position of the organisations involved. The workshop was conducted under the Chatham House rule; therefore no attributions are made and the identity of speakers and participants is not disclosed.
Expert Notes series publication No. 2018-05-02
www.canada.ca (May 2018)
Investors put larger sums of money into fewer cos. in this period. €4.4B was deployed across 571 deals. 18 vehicles raised €2.1B. Median fund size at €86M.
The document summarizes private markets fundraising trends in 2017. Some key points:
- Private markets fundraising reached a record $750 billion globally in 2017, driven primarily by a surge in US buyout megafunds (funds over $5 billion).
- US buyout megafunds raised $173.7 billion in 2017, a 93% increase from 2016. This surge accounted for most of the overall private markets fundraising growth.
- Investors continue to allocate heavily to private markets like private equity due to the potential for higher returns compared to public markets. Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds see private markets as a way to address underfunding issues and volatility.
European Tech cos (founded 2000 or later) with $1 B valuations - by GP Bullhound, Sept 2017.
Too much money is chasin too few (GOOD) cos. This means there´s a tremendous opportunity for creating new GOOD cos here...!
Over 100 decision-makers working directly on corporate innovation in Fortune 1000 (Americas, Europe, Asia) corporations share their learnings. By 500 Startups.
This document provides context about Picasso's famous painting Guernica. It summarizes that the bombing of Guernica during the Spanish Civil War inspired Picasso to create the painting, which has become an iconic anti-war work. An exhibition called "Pity and Terror: Picasso's Path to Guernica" features over 170 of Picasso's works leading up to the painting to show the creative process. Guernica depicts the horror of modern warfare and mass death without allegory, making it a universal symbol of tragedy and a defense of humanism.
The document is a presentation by Anand Sanwal, CEO of CB Insights, listing 68 things not to do when running a SaaS company. Some of the key things mentioned include not tolerating high-performing assholes, not believing your own hype, not worrying about losses early on, not hiring under pressure, and not ignoring sales advice. The presentation provides advice across various areas like product, marketing, sales, and culture.
...we believe that immigrants and the diversity of experiences they bring to a country are essential to the country´s economic growth, progress and innovation...
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Energy Consumption - Scenario Planning
1. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017
Royal Dutch Shell plc
September 8, 2017
Shell scenarios, modelling and decision making
#makethefuture
2. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017 2
Cautionary note This presentation contains data from Shell’s New Lens Scenarios. The New Lens Scenarios are a part of an ongoing process used in Shell for 40 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the
future business environment. We base them on plausible assumptions and quantifications, and they are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible.
Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch
Shell plc securities.
It is important to note that Shell’s existing portfolio has been decades in development. While we believe our portfolio is resilient under a wide range of outlooks, including the IEA’s 450 scenario, it
includes assets across a spectrum of energy intensities including some with above-average intensity. While we seek to enhance our operations’ average energy intensity through both the
development of new projects and divestments, we have no immediate plans to move to a net-zero emissions portfolio over our investment horizon of 10-20 years.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes
used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or
to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell
companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has
joint control are generally referred to “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as
“associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-
party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical
fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and
assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations,
beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’,
‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a
number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this
presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;
(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and
targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and
regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the
risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs;
and (m) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this
presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2016 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ).
These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the
date of this presentation, September 8, 2017. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a
result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained
in this presentation. This presentation may contain references to Shell’s website. These references are for the readers’ convenience only. Shell is not incorporating by reference any information posted
on www.shell.com. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our
filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
3. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017
Georges Menane
VP Investor Relations Europe
Royal Dutch Shell
4. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017 4
Summary
Re-shaping Shell - on track
Divestments: >$25 billion completed, announced or
advanced progress
Projects delivery for 2018 on track
Capital investment – discipline, efficiency and flexibility
Operational excellence and driving down costs
Leader: value +
influence
Reducing our
carbon
intensity
Shared value
with society
World-class
investment case
5. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017 5
Supporting
Shell’s World
Class Investment
IR Programme
LNG Outlook
Provide information to demonstrate the
robustness of our Integrated Gas cash engine
Chemicals event
Raise the appreciation and understanding of
our Chemicals business
Scenarios, modelling and strategy presentation
Explain how different scenarios inform strategy
Task force on climate-related financial disclosure (TCFD)
Shell supports TCFD
Ongoing engagement with taskforce
Challenges with regulatory perspective
Considering next steps
Modelling ability helps us understand qualitative risks
www.shell.com/investor
6. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017
Guy Outen
EVP Strategy & Portfolio
Royal Dutch Shell
7. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017
Exploring
alternative
futures
▪ Energy system was
complicated
▪ Energy transition and
digital: major disruptors
▪ Past does not predict the
future
▪ Forecasts are inappropriate
▪ Radically uncertain future
▪ Complex future: needs
agility
Scenario thinking
Decision-making
▪ Scenarios are a distinctive
Shell capability
From complicated to complex
SCENARIOS
FORECAST
The Present The Path The Future
7
8. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017
Outcome 1
Outcome 2
Outcome 3
Outcome 4
Outcome 5
Multiple futures
8
Scenarios are
neither
forecasts nor
plans
Scenarios are not forecasts; neither are they our business plan
Shell considers multiple, bespoke scenarios relevant to decisions
Scenarios usage ranges from evaluation of individual opportunities, to portfolio choices, to overarching strategy
development
Scenarios stretch our
perspectives
CO2 Solutions
Social
Networks
Education
LNG market
Terrorism
Gas Price
Oil Price
CO2 Cap
Inter-regional tension
Resource ‘wars’
Climate Change
Technology
2nd Gen
eBusiness
Recession
Russia
CCS
Dutch disease
Surprise
Surprise
EU
China
USA
Unconventional gas
GCC
GCC
Demographics
Today
ASSUMPTIONS
Multiple forces may push towards or pull away from the envisaged futures
MACRO-RISKS & UNCERTAINTIES
9. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017 9
Shell’s strategy
#makethefuture
Scenario thinking supports
robust strategy + portfolio
decision-making
Winning
Capabilities
Aspired
Future
Aspired
Portfolio
World-class investment case
Leader: value + influence
Reducing our carbon intensity
Shared value with society
Customer Centricity
Commercial Value Delivery
Technology Commercialisation
Project Delivery
Operational Excellence
Cash
Engines
Future
Opportunities
Growth
Priorities
Leader: value +
influence
Reducing our
carbon
intensity
Shared value
with society
World-class investment
case
10. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017
Using scenarios
Recognising a range of
uncertain outcomes
*This is an example diagram of graphic representations that are considered by the Board. Not based on Shell’s actual portfolio.
Consider a range of plausible futures
Explore social, political + economic factors
Determine context for business environment
Model the Future World’s energy systems
Future worlds
Consider existing and new energy value chains
Elements within the value chain
Assess investment attractiveness over time
Consider the Future Worlds
Value chain assessment*
Explore potential future
worlds
Understand potential value
chain impacts
Pace of demand growth
Paceofnewtechnology
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3
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5
Value Chains
FutureWorld
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Framework for
decision making
in uncertainty
Build from ‘Future Worlds’ +
value chain analysis
Consider “minimise
maximum regret”
Make investment and
portfolio decisions
Strategy and aspired future
Consider multiple futures
in decision-focused scenarios
Business environment/
value chain understanding
Apply lenses
to support the ‘hard’
input to decisions
From individual decisions to
shaping the aspired portfolio
Clarity of objectives
Analytic tools
External environment and
disruptors
Decisions based on ‘hard’ and
‘soft’ inputs
Multiple lenses
Current
portfolio
Aspired
portfolio
Energy transition
12. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017
Wim Thomas
Chief Energy Adviser
Royal Dutch Shell
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Introduction
How scenarios inform
modelling
Scenarios explore “how the
world will work” in the future,
and is an essential front-end
input in modelling
Different parts of the world
will develop in their own
ways and at different paces
Technology innovation enables
new options
Resource availability can be
a constraint
Deal with disruptions and
non-linear relationships
Modelling helps to demonstrate
the plausibility of the scenarios
The future is not an
extrapolation of the past
Mountains/Oceans
Demand
Supply
Resources
Translating the societal-
political-economic
scenarios in the
“So what for energy?”
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Shell models
Models underpin scenarios
and strategic analysis
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World Energy
Model (WEM):
Estimates global
energy demand
dynamically
▪ Estimates energy demand holistically
▪ Underpinned by demand, choice and supply modules
▪ Uses resource constraints, build rates and prices to balance supply and demand
▪ Covers other elements such as efficiency and learning curves, and outcomes like CO2
emissions from energy use
Balances demand choices
with supply
100
Years
100
Countries & Regions
(Incl. 82 countries individually)
18
Energy
Sources
14
Sectors
10
Energy
Carriers
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WEM:
Key drivers
for demand
75 specific scenario-based
inputs, considered by:
Sector
Carrier
Energy source
Geography
Population Economic growth Environmental pressures
Technology Resource availability People’s choices
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WEM:
Energy Ladders
Estimate energy
service needs
▪ Different development curves
by country, by sector
▪ Developing nations tend to
use less energy due to more
efficient technologies
available now than in the past
for developed nations
▪ Non-linear relationship
between GDP growth and
energy use
▪ Energy demand accelerates
once industrialisation starts
▪ Demand growth eases as
some uses approach
saturation and the economy
diversifies from industrial to
service sector activity
*UK and USA 1870 – 2016; Japan 1953 – 2016; Non-OECD1971-2016
**Logarithmic scale
▪ Looks at what energy
service is needed
▪ For example heating or
cooling degree days,
passenger road km
Primary energy/ (GJ/capita/year)
GDP (PPP) capita (2010 USD)**
1,000 10,000 100,000
0
100
200
300
400
CAN
USA
AUSSWE
KOR
FRA
DEU
GBR
JPN
MYS
ITA
ESP
BRA
IND
CHN
The Energy Ladder 1960 – 2016*
The relationship between income and energy use
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WEM:
Choice module
Determining the
energy mix
Acknowledges different user
preferences for technologies
and solutions
Choices change in response
to prices, taxes, subsidies,
availability, convenience,
values and energy security or
policy considerations
Not all choices will be based
on lowest cost options
Different energy choices are
not perfect substitutes
Consumers choose which
energy carrier to deliver
their service needs
Producers decide which
primary energy sources to
use to satisfy consumer
demand
10 Carriers14 Sectors
Industry&
services
Residential
Freight
Transport
Passenger
transport
14 Sectors 10 Carriers 18 Energy Sources
Ship
Rail
Road
Air
Ship
Rail
Road
Air
Heating &
Cooking
Lighting &
Appliances
Heavy
Other
Services
Non-energy
ENDUSERCHOICES
PRODUCERCHOICES
Electricity
(Centralised /
Distributed
Liquid Fuels
Heat
(Centralised/
Distributed)
Gaseous
Fuels
Solid Fuels
Biomass
(Traditional/C
ommercial)
Hydrogen
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro-electricity
Biofuels – 1st Gen
Biofuels – 2nd Gen
Biofuels – Marine
Biofuels – Traditional
Biofuels – Commercial
Waste
Geothermal – Hydrothermal
Geothermal – Engineered
Solar – Photovoltaic
Solar – Thermal
Wind
Tidal
Wave
Nuclear
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WEM:
Example outputs
A myriad of different
“slices” through the
output data set
possible
These are not forecasts, but example outputs of scenarios that have been modelled
Source: Shell New Lens Scenarios
EJ/year (energy carrier)
World: Total Final Consumption by sector: Mountains
EJ/year (energy source)
World: Total Primary Energy by source: Mountains
EJ/year (energy source)
World: Total Primary Energy: Oceans
EJ/year (energy carrier)
China: Total Final Consumption by source Electricity: Oceans
▪ The WEM considers the
global energy system as
one
▪ What happens in China
reverberates throughout
the rest of the world
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WEM:
Example outputs
Comparing two
scenarios for
consumer choices of
what type of energy
they want to use
These are not forecasts, but example outputs of scenarios that have been modelled
EJ/year (energy carrier)
World: Total Final Consumption – by carrier
Decarbonisation and efficiency
go hand-in-hand with
electrification of the energy
system
Mountains explores the widespread success of shale gas and strong government policy to reduce oil use in
Transport and use of CCS to reduce CO2 emissions
Oceans explores a highly economically efficient world and strong uptake of Renewables to reduce CO2 emissions
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WEM:
Example outputs
Comparing two
scenarios for primary
energy mix as a result
of different policy,
GDP, resources and
innovation
assumptions
These are not forecasts, but example outputs of scenarios that have been modelled
EJ/year (energy carrier)
World: Total Primary Energy
Of the New Lens Scenarios,
Mountains’ drivers result in
‘earliest’ peak oil demand;
Oceans’ drivers result in ‘latest’
peak oil supply
Mountains explores the widespread success of shale gas and strong government policy to reduce oil use in
Transport and use of CCS to reduce CO2 emissions
Oceans explores a highly economically efficient world and strong uptake of Renewables to reduce CO2 emissions
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Global Energy
Resources
database
Essential for
projecting the future
energy mix
Assessment as at 2015
Oil, gas and coal expected remaining
resources
Renewables annual production potential
Used for Shell scenarios
Data will be available for download
Note: Figures for fossil energy and renewables are not directly comparable. The figures for fossil energy are for the stock of resources in place, whereas the renewable figures represent an annual rate of production.
Sources: Oil & Gas: Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy, IHS, International Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, Canadian National Energy Board, US Geological Survey and Shell analysis; Coal: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und
Rohstoffe (BGR) and Shell analysis; Renewables: Ecofys studies commissioned by Shell
Comprehensive overview of all
available primary and
renewable energy resources
per country
Insights:
Sufficient renewable resources, but unequal
distribution
Sufficient fossil resources for a decarbonised and
efficient world, but potential for stresses otherwise
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Global Supply
Model (GSM)
Estimates oil and
gas production
Estimates production at resource category and country level until 2100
Each resource category develops through its own resource maturation chain
Cost of supply curves control how much resource is economic to mature at a given price
Includes an environmental footprint module
Includes:
▪ Top down analysis for yet-
to-find resources
▪ Bottom-up analysis for
undeveloped and
developed resources
▪ Depletion of existing
production and
▪ Reserves growth due to
technology
Yet-to-finds
Discovered Volumes
Developed Reserves Production
Undeveloped
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GSM:
Example outputs
Projecting oil and gas
supply by type,
region and resource
category
These are not forecasts, but example outputs of scenarios that have been modelled
Bln boe per year
World: Total Oil Production (inc LPG/Condensate)
Mmb/d
North America: Total Oil Production (inc LPG/Condensate)
TCF per year
World: Total Gas Production – by gas type
TCF per year
Europe: Total Gas Production – by location
Production varies with oil
price, technology progress and
(geo)political assumptions
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Example outputs:
Modelling
disruption
potential of
Electric vehicles
(EV)
An aggressive EV scenario
This is not a forecast, this is one example scenario
Million vehicles/year
Key assumptions:
Battery costs continue to decline
Regulation strengthens (e.g. ban internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in cities)
OEM vehicle manufacturers assumed to continue to develop ICE efficiencies
Global vehicle sales
Million vehicles
Global vehicle fleet
EV share in new sales may
grow from 1% today to reach
10% by 2025, displacing less
than 0.8 mboe/d Plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) Battery EV (BEV)Internal combustion engine (ICE)
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Example outputs:
Oil demand
context
An aggressive EV scenario
Source: Shell WEM Disruption example
This is not a forecast, this is one example scenario
EJ/year (energy carrier)
Passenger road transport makes up around a third
of global oil use
Global LHCF consumption by Sector
EJ/year (energy carrier)
Global LHCF consumption by Country
Oil demand has fallen in OECD since 2005
Non-OECD oil demand growth 2.5 times the
impact of OECD demand decline
EV mainly impacts
passenger road transport (a
third of total oil demand)
ICE efficiency has a much
bigger impact over this
period
Overall demand continues
to grow underpinned by
non-OECD growth
27. Royal Dutch Shell September 8, 2017
Guy Outen
EVP Strategy & Portfolio
Royal Dutch Shell
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Summary ‘Complicated to complex’ context
Understand multiple futures to frame decision-making
Scenario thinking and holistic modelling is key
Use multiple lenses, including ‘minimise maximum regret’
Agile decision-making needed through energy transition
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Materials
available online
www.shell.com/
scenariosenergymodels
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Questions and Answers
Guy Outen
EVP Strategy & Portfolio
Wim Thomas
Chief Energy Adviser
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Guy Outen
Executive Vice President
Strategy & Portfolio
Guy Outen was appointed Executive Vice President, Strategy & Portfolio for Royal Dutch Shell plc in 2014.
Guy has worked in various commercial, new business and finance roles across all parts of Shell’s business. From
2009 to 2013 he was the EVP Commercial, New Business & LNG. LNG became part of the separate Integrated Gas
business from 2013. Before 2009 Guy was EVP, EP Strategy & New Business and before that he was the Chief
Financial Officer for Gas & Power, Shell Group Chief Internal Auditor, the CFO for Shell Development Australia and
has also been responsible for Retail operating processes, split off and merged Shell Australia’s chemical operations
into the Montell JV, worked in Crude Oil Trading and a Coal JV.
Guy has an economics and commerce background, B.Com (Hons), M.Com, and is a Fellow CPA Australia.
Guy is married with three sons and enjoys sport, music and motorcycling.
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Wim Thomas
Chief Energy Adviser
Wim Thomas is Chief Energy Adviser and leads the Energy Analysis practice in Shell.
His team is also responsible for Shell’s long-term global energy scenarios, informing Group Strategy. He has been
with the Shell Group for some 33 years, with prior positions in drilling operations, subsurface reservoir management
and commercial and regulatory affairs in gas.
Wim is chairman of the UK national committee of the World Petroleum Council and is a former chairman of the
British Institute of Energy Economics. He holds a postgraduate degree in Maritime Technology from Delft University in
The Netherlands.
Wim has been in his current role for the past 14 years. He advises Shell companies on a wide range of energy
issues, including global supply and demand, regulations, energy policy, markets, pricing and industry structure.
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EnergyTransition
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Board and future
business
environment
Diverse input in Board
meetings to stretch thinking
and inform decision making
Beliefs Uncertainties
Mega Trends Macroeconomics
Market
Digitalisation
Industry
Example:
Sustained era of transition & volatility
Emerging markets drive Global GDP increases
Example:
Political tensions & regional instability
Impact of digital technology
Example:
Hydrocarbon demand growth + supply required
Renewables contribution increases significantly
Example:
Key pricing mechanisms
Energy transitions impact
Example:
Technology & scale alone insufficient
Example:
Winning business models & capabilities
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Shell scenarios
Identifying emerging
challenges to guide us
through change
Scenarios stretch our
perspectives and help us
to make crucial choices in
uncertain times
‘13: New Lens Scenarios
’14: New Lenses on
Future Cities
‘16: A Better Life with a
Healthy Planet:
Pathways to Net-Zero
Emissions
Changing sources of
influence & decision
making power
Era of volatile
energy
transitions
Social fragmentation &
cohesion dilemmas; re-
emergence of State impact
‘01: Energy Needs,
Choices and Possibilities:
Scenarios to 2050
‘08: Shell energy
scenarios to 2050
‘92: Global Scenarios ‘92-’20
‘95: Global Scenarios ‘96-’20
‘95: Long Term Energy Scenarios
‘98: Global Scenarios ‘98-’20
‘02: People and
Connections Scenarios
‘05: Global
Scenario’s to 2025
1965-1980
First scenarios
Trends
‘07: Signals &
Signposts
Globalisation, liberalisation,
technology diffusion; environmental
pressures; Asian growth
‘11: Signals &
Signposts
Publications
Internal unpublished scenarios focused on specific developments and challenges
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WEM:
Countries
modelled
South America
Europe/Russia
Africa
Middle East
Asia/Pacific
North America
Darker-coloured countries are modelled individually. Lighter-coloured countries are modelled collectively as ‘Rest of’ regions, such as ‘Rest of West Africa’.
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GSM:
Countries
modelled
South America
Europe/Russia
Africa
Middle East
Asia/Pacific
North America
Rest of the world