Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman

May 8, 2012Download as PPT, PDF0 likes393 views

The document discusses Ireland's bonds and interest rates from 2010-2012 following its request for IMF help in November 2010. It shows that Ireland's 5-year CDS spread peaked above 600 basis points prior to IMF assistance, then fell to pre-IMF levels as Ireland fulfilled IMF plans. Ireland's 10-year bond rates similarly peaked above 9% before the IMF request, then dropped to 6.7% as Ireland met IMF targets, regaining market access by late 2012 as planned.

Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman

Page
1 this overview
2 CDS history and how to interpret
3 10 - year bond rates
4 recent developments

bottomline:

the markets follow very closely the success of consolidation
and reward rational behavior

No other country than the USA has the luxury of the exorbitant privilege

Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman: 5 year CDS
CDS spread of Ireland
closes above 600 points
Friday 11/26/2010
-> request for IMF help
Sunday 11/28/2010

Greeks throw the
big tantrum in August 2011
-> risk spike for all
Europeans (DE: 112,
UK: 96 points)

Ireland fulfils the
IMF plans 100.0 %
-> risk premium goes down
to pre IMF level (560 points)

Ireland is on track to regain market access end of 2012, as planned

Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman: 10-year rates IMF decisions are mainly
triggered by interest rates
and not CDS spreads
(of course both are highly
correlated)

10-year rate of Ireland
closes above 9%(900 points)
Friday 11/26/2010
-> request for IMF help
Sunday 11/28/2010

Ireland fulfils the
IMF plans 100.0 %
-> interest rate goes down
to 6.7%,
far below pre IMF level

See next page for more recent data

Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman: 10-year rates Bond details:
EURO interest rate (bonds ~ 10 year) Ireland
ISIN: IE0034074488
20% maturity date: 4/18/2020
18%
de de
fr
Germany
France
coupon: 4.5 %
it at Austria
16% es
be Belgium
it Italy
14% pt es Spain
Irish rates dropped
pt Portugal
12% ie ie
gr
Ireland
Greece
after positive IMF reports
gr
10%
Portuguese rates drop with
8% each positive news
6%
4% Note:
this is calculated from
2%
prices paid for pre IMF
0% existing bonds, with
1/30/2011
3/1/2011

5/1/2011
6/1/2011

8/31/2011

3/31/2012

6/30/2012

9/30/2012
4/1/2011

7/1/2011
8/1/2011

10/31/2011
12/31/2010

8/30/2012

10/30/2012
11/30/2012
9/30/2011

11/30/2011
12/31/2011
1/30/2012
3/1/2012

4/30/2012
5/31/2012

7/31/2012

12/30/2012
coupons like above

their actual interest
* pt 5 years for data availability payments for new loans
are at IMF / EU rates of
3.5 - 4 % since 7/22/2011
Present rate : 6.7%

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One night, deep within one of those YouTube rabbit holes-you know, the ones where you progress from video to video until you already can't remember what you were searching for-well, I found myself stuck in crypto horror stories. I have watched people share how they lost access to their Bitcoin wallets, be it through hacks, forgotten passwords, glitches in software, or mislaid seed phrases. Some of the stupid mistakes made me laugh; others were devastating losses. At no point did I think I would be the next story. Literally the next morning, I tried to get to my wallet like usual, but found myself shut out. First, I assumed it was some sort of minor typo, but after multiple attempts-anything I could possibly do with the password-I realized that something had gone very wrong. $400,000 in Bitcoin was inside that wallet. I tried not to panic. Instead, I went back over my steps, checked my saved credentials, even restarted my device. Nothing worked. The laughter from last night's videos felt like a cruel joke now. This wasn't funny anymore. It was then that I remembered: One of the videos on YouTube spoke about Cranix Ethical Solutions Haven. It was some dude who lost his crypto in pretty similar circumstances. He swore on their expertise; I was out of options and reached out to them. From the very moment I contacted them, their staff was professional, patient, and very knowledgeable indeed. I told them my case, and then they just went ahead and introduced me to the plan. They reassured me that they have dealt with cases similar to this-and that I wasn't doomed as I felt. Over the course of a few days, they worked on meticulously analyzing all security layers around my wallet, checking for probable failure points, and reconstructing lost credentials with accuracy and expertise. Then came the call that changed everything: “Your funds are safe. You’re back in.” I can’t even put into words the relief I felt at that moment. Cranix Ethical Solutions Haven didn’t just restore my wallet—they restored my sanity. I walked away from this experience with two important lessons: 1. Never, ever neglect a wallet backup. 2. If disaster strikes, Cranix Ethical Solutions Haven is the only name you need to remember. If you're reading this and thinking, "That would never happen to me," I used to think the same thing. Until it did. EMAIL: cranixethicalsolutionshaven at post dot com WHATSAPP: +44 (7460) (622730) TELEGRAM: @ cranixethicalsolutionshaven

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Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman

1. Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman Page 1 this overview 2 CDS history and how to interpret 3 10 - year bond rates 4 recent developments bottomline: the markets follow very closely the success of consolidation and reward rational behavior No other country than the USA has the luxury of the exorbitant privilege

2. Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman: 5 year CDS CDS spread of Ireland closes above 600 points Friday 11/26/2010 -> request for IMF help Sunday 11/28/2010 Greeks throw the big tantrum in August 2011 -> risk spike for all Europeans (DE: 112, UK: 96 points) Ireland fulfils the IMF plans 100.0 % -> risk premium goes down to pre IMF level (560 points) Ireland is on track to regain market access end of 2012, as planned

3. Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman: 10-year rates IMF decisions are mainly triggered by interest rates and not CDS spreads (of course both are highly correlated) 10-year rate of Ireland closes above 9%(900 points) Friday 11/26/2010 -> request for IMF help Sunday 11/28/2010 Ireland fulfils the IMF plans 100.0 % -> interest rate goes down to 6.7%, far below pre IMF level See next page for more recent data

4. Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman: 10-year rates Bond details: EURO interest rate (bonds ~ 10 year) Ireland ISIN: IE0034074488 20% maturity date: 4/18/2020 18% de de fr Germany France coupon: 4.5 % it at Austria 16% es be Belgium it Italy 14% pt es Spain Irish rates dropped pt Portugal 12% ie ie gr Ireland Greece after positive IMF reports gr 10% Portuguese rates drop with 8% each positive news 6% 4% Note: this is calculated from 2% prices paid for pre IMF 0% existing bonds, with 1/30/2011 3/1/2011 5/1/2011 6/1/2011 8/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 8/1/2011 10/31/2011 12/31/2010 8/30/2012 10/30/2012 11/30/2012 9/30/2011 11/30/2011 12/31/2011 1/30/2012 3/1/2012 4/30/2012 5/31/2012 7/31/2012 12/30/2012 coupons like above their actual interest * pt 5 years for data availability payments for new loans are at IMF / EU rates of 3.5 - 4 % since 7/22/2011 Present rate : 6.7%

Irish Bonds for Paul Krugman

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