The document analyzes the success of the iPhone and what it revealed about the future of mobile phones. It summarizes that the iPhone was very successful due to its large touchscreen, ease of use, and ability to access the full, uncensored internet experience like on a PC. This shifted users away from previous mobile internet experiences that were limited in bandwidth and customized portals, and towards viewing the mobile internet and the iPhone as a ubiquitous internet device.
1. Browsing as the killer app: The success of the iPhone Joel West San José State University Michael Mace Rubicon Consulting Quello Center for Telecommunication Management & Law Michigan State University April 24, 2009
2. Learning from the iPhone Observation The iPhone has been a great success Questions Why? What does it tell us about the future of mobile phones?
6. Terminal Evolution N-series Smartphone AMPS subs. Set Car phone Model 500 Desk phone Terminal Phone calls Info manager SMS/E-mail Web browser MP3 player Makes calls Receive calls Makes calls Receive calls Functions Handset, LCD, 200 MHz ARM9, 0.06-4.0 gb RAM Handset, dial, 2 MHz Intel 8080 Handset, rotary dial, wire Bill of materials 2007 1978 1949-1969 Date Nokia AT&T West. Electric Firm
7. Now a consumer product 1 billion phones sold in 2006 vs. 240 million PCs US: 145m cellphones, 61m PCs Major vendors seek brand loyalty Nokia alone ad spending $375m/yr Lots of technology push Mixed results on market driving
9. Original conception “ Mobile Internet” vision ca. 2000: Limited bandwidth New mobile-specific content New value network
10. Barriers to mobile Internet From 1996-2000, telecom industry began to plan mobile Internet What they didn’t have: Device capabilities Network capabilities Justified planned 3G buildout Mobile-specific content
11. Smartphones: then & now QWERTY : thumb, slideout or virtual Numeric (T-9) Keyboard 8 Gb 2 Mb RAM 480x320 color 160x160 B&W Screen HSDPA, EVDO: 1 mbps CDPD, i-mode: 5-10 kbps [GPRS: 50 kbps] Bandwidth 2008 1998
12. Reach vs. Richness (2001) Source: Jeffrey L. Funk, The Mobile Internet, 2001 Rich Media Wide Reach US, EU: full Internet, very expensive Japan: limited Internet, mass market
13. Early experiments Low-bandwidth mobile web: i-mode (NTT DoCoMo) Slow speed data cHMTL Portal, business model WAP Special dialect of HTML Both require custom content
14. Mobile value chain (2002) Source: Hermant Sabat, Telecommunications Policy, Oct. 2002.
15. Mobile web (1996-2005) Japan, Korea: low-bandwidth custom web portals Export to US, Europe fails Europe: WAP never catches on US: walled gardens V Cast video clips, 176x132 15fps
17. iPhone value proposition Relatively large screen Ease of use “ Half the people at CTIA can’t send a text message” PC-like web browsing Unique content & ecosystem
18. iPod Ecosystem (2007) Fox, MGM, Universal, Disney … Music Video Hardware Performers Composers Sony BMG EMI Universal Warner “ Indies” Component Makers iTunes Store iPod Producers Complements Accessory Makers
19. iPhone Ecosystem (2008) iPhone 3G applications Video Music Software Hardware iPod content Component Makers iTunes Store iPod Complements Accessory Makers
24. Plethora of “iPhone killers” Google/HTC: G1 BlackBerry Storm Palm Pre Nokia N95, N97, 5800 LG, Samsung, … Most have 320x240 touchscreen
25. Mobile web via WebKit WebKit is de facto mobile browser std Safari (Mac): 2003 Symbian S60 (Nokia): 2005 Safari (iPhone): 2007 Android OS (Google): 2007 Chrome (Google): 2008 Open source means available to all
27. iPhone App Store 30,000 15,000 10,000 3,000 550 Available apps 0.1b Sept 2008 1.0b April 23 0.5b Jan 2009 0.3b Dec 2008 0 July 2008 App downloads
28. Top 40 apps As reported by Apple April 2009 (may be US only) 2 Web 2.0 2 Utilities 8 Internet services 6 2 Entertainment 14 8 Games Top 20 paid apps Top 20 free apps
29. Mobile web is wired web Among the top 20 free apps Facebook, MySpace Google Earth The Weather Channel Movies, restaurant websites Each downloaded by 3-6 million users out of 37 million iPhone & iPod Touch
30. Rival app stores Apple: July 2008 Google: Aug. 2008/Feb. 2009 Microsoft: Aug. 2008 Nokia: Aug. 2008 Samsung: Aug. 2008 RIM: April 2009
32. The “Real Internet” “ You’ve used the internet on your phone, it’s terrible! You get the baby internet, or the mobile internet — people want the real internet on their phone. “ We are going to deliver that. We’re going to take advantage of some of these investments in bandwidth.” – Steve Jobs, May 2007
33. Early success (1) “ Of all the iPhone’s features, none had reviewers gushing more than its Internet browser . It was the first cellphone browser that promised something resembling the experience of surfing the Internet on a PC . … “ On Christmas [2007], traffic to Google from iPhones surged, surpassing incoming traffic from any other type of mobile device …” — New York Times, 1/14/08
34. Early success (2) Google “had seen 50 times more searches on Apple‘s iPhone than any other mobile handset, adding weight to the group’s confidence at being able to generate significant revenues from the mobile internet. “‘ We thought it was a mistake and made our engineers check the logs again…’ — Financial Times, 2/14/08
35. Users got the real Internet Today they Google everything Can use iPhone instead of PC Data plan helps enable this Result: ubiquitous Internet device Begins shift to mobile Internet
36. There is no mobile Internet “Mobile Internet” value chain in US Utilizes existing Internet Content: news, weather, etc. Services: search Adapted & customized Form factor Ease of use (custom app) Location aware, e.g. maps
37. Future developments US: iPhone is benchmark EU: Nokia vs. iPhone Japan, ROK: extend 2G success? Developing countries: ?
38. Thank you… Joel West http://www.JoelWest.org/blogs Michael Mace http: // mobileopportunity.blogspot.com