Ending Affirmative Action Harms Diversity Without Improving Academic Merit
Authors: 
Jinsook Lee, Emma Harvey, Joyce Zhou, Nikhil Garg, Thorsten Joachims, 
René F. KizilcecAuthors Info & Claims
Jinsook Lee, Emma Harvey, Joyce Zhou, Nikhil Garg, Thorsten Joachims, René F. KizilcecAuthors Info & ClaimsArticle No.: 8, Pages 1 - 17
Abstract
Each year, selective American colleges sort through tens of thousands of applications to identify a first-year class that displays both academic merit and diversity. In the 2023-2024 admissions cycle, these colleges faced unprecedented challenges to doing so. First, the number of applications has been steadily growing year-over-year. Second, test-optional policies that have remained in place since the COVID-19 pandemic limit access to key information that has historically been predictive of academic success. Most recently, longstanding debates over affirmative action culminated in the Supreme Court banning race-conscious admissions. Colleges have explored machine learning (ML) models to address the issues of scale and missing test scores, often via ranking algorithms intended to allow human reviewers to focus attention on ‘top’ applicants. However, the Court’s ruling will force changes to these models, which were previously able to consider race as a factor in ranking. There is currently a poor understanding of how these mandated changes will shape applicant ranking algorithms, and, by extension, admitted classes. We seek to address this by quantifying the impact of different admission policies on the applications prioritized for review. We show that removing race data from a previously developed applicant ranking algorithm reduces the diversity of the top-ranked pool of applicants without meaningfully increasing the academic merit of that pool. We further measure the impact of policy change on individuals by quantifying arbitrariness in applicant rank. We find that any given policy has a high degree of arbitrariness (i.e. at most 9% of applicants are consistently ranked in the top 20%), and that removing race data from the ranking algorithm increases arbitrariness in outcomes for most applicants.
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