Research Interests: Psychology, Geography, Cartography, Demography, Archaeology, and 15 moreEnvironmental Science, Oceanography, Climate Change, Geotechnical Engineering, Meteorology, Biology, Ecology, Environmental Resource Management, Population, Sea level rise, Landslide, HAZARD, Psychotherapist, Eology, and Geographic Information System
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This study aims to predictthe hydrology of the Jhelum basin under changing climatic scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Six Global Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled for reliable climatic... more
This study aims to predictthe hydrology of the Jhelum basin under changing climatic scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Six Global Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled for reliable climatic projections over the 21st century (2020–2080). To reduce the uncertainty associated with climate projections, multi-model ensemble estimations were refined using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The assessment reveals that compared tothe baseline (1980–2010) values, the annual mean maximum temperature in the basin will rise by 0.41–2.31°C and 0.63–4.82°C and the mean minimum temperature will increase by 1.39–2.37°C and 2.14–4.34°C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5respectively. While as, precipitation is expected to decreases by 7.2–4.57% and 4.75–2.4 7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 correspondingly. BMA ensemble projections were used inthe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)to simulate the future hydrological scenarios of the drainage basin. With the changing climate, the ...
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Disasters not only cause high mortality and suffering, but thwart developmental activities and damage local economies in process of formation. A part of the NW Himalayas, the Kashmir Valley is very distinct with respect to its location,... more
Disasters not only cause high mortality and suffering, but thwart developmental activities and damage local economies in process of formation. A part of the NW Himalayas, the Kashmir Valley is very distinct with respect to its location, topography, climate, socioeconomic structure, and strategic geopolitical nature owing to which it has witnessed a multitude of disasters ranging from local incidents of rockfalls to catastrophic earthquakes, and has often paid heavily in terms of loss of life and property. However, the information on most of the events is either partially reported or exaggerated or sometimes not recorded at all and largely scattered. Availability of organized and reliable record of past hazards and disasters is essential for tackling the risks and mitigating the future disasters. In this context, the present study attempts to address the lack of data availability by focusing on developing a dependable hazard and disaster catalogue of the Kashmir Valley by investigati...
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Kashmir Himalaya being a rugged and tectonically active zone has complex, unstable geology along with steep slopes, creating a favorable environment for landslide hazards, especially along the National Highway (NH-44) that connects the... more
Kashmir Himalaya being a rugged and tectonically active zone has complex, unstable geology along with steep slopes, creating a favorable environment for landslide hazards, especially along the National Highway (NH-44) that connects the Vale of Kashmir with the rest of India. The historical landslide database for the whole country has not yet been developed and the data provided by various government organizations are often very limited because most of the time local and small-scale landslide events do not get recorded, thus, leading to misinterpretations. The present study focuses on retrieving the information on landslide events and their impacts to develop a comprehensive database for the period from 1990 to 2020 in Jammu and Kashmir, emphasizing Jammu-Srinagar National Highway (NH-44). A hotspot analysis tool (Getis-ord-Gi* algorithm) was used to understand the spatial distribution and concentration of the events throughout the region. The annual and seasonal analysis of the 739 ...
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ABSTRACT Kashmir has a long written history of 5000 years, which provides a sketchy picture of historical earthquakes. In all, we collated details of 16 earthquakes from the historical scribes. Most of the earthquakes had their epicenters... more
ABSTRACT Kashmir has a long written history of 5000 years, which provides a sketchy picture of historical earthquakes. In all, we collated details of 16 earthquakes from the historical scribes. Most of the earthquakes had their epicenters outside the Kashmir Valley. The exceptions (earthquakes with epicenters within the valley), however, caused severe damage to life and properties and were associated with ground ruptures and long periods of aftershocks. Among them, only the 1885 event is adequately described. We have analyzed environmental effects of this destructive earthquake which occurred in the northwestern Kashmir Himalaya along Pir Panjal range in the early morning (5.00 a.m) of 30 May, 1885. Using archival sources followed by field work, the present attempt envisages applying the Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI 2007) for a macroseismic intensity assessment of the 1885 Baramulla Earthquake. Inferences (primary and secondary) reveal that the 1885 Baramulla earthquake local intensity would have been VI–X on the ESI scale. Baramulla, the macroseismic epicenter of the earthquake, must have witnessed epicentral intensity of X on ESI scale. The intensity must have been variable, severe at Baramulla and less at Srinagar, because of the severity of damage decreased from NW to SE.
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In order to assess soil erosion at watershed scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model has been used on IEL7 watershed of Lidder Catchment in Himalayan Region. Erosion calculation requires huge amount of information and... more
In order to assess soil erosion at watershed scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model has been used on IEL7 watershed of Lidder Catchment in Himalayan Region. Erosion calculation requires huge amount of information and data, usually coming from different sources and available in different formats and scales. Therefore GIS was used, which helped considerably in organizing the spatial data representing the effects of each factor affecting soil erosion. The factors that most influence soil erosion are linked to topography, vegetation type, soil properties and land use/cover. Average annual soil losses were calculated by multiplying five factors: R; the erosivity factor, K; the soil erodibility factor; LS, the topographic factor; C, the crop management factor and P; the conservation support practice. The annual soil loss predictions range between 0 and 61tons ha -1 . Average soil loss was highest (26 tons ha -1 year -1 ) in agriculture area and lowest soil loss rate was f...
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Wetland ecosystems integrate many upstream processes and the differential contributions of spatially distributed controlling factors, especially land use / land cover. In view of the significant importance of wetlands in the ecosystem and... more
Wetland ecosystems integrate many upstream processes and the differential contributions of spatially distributed controlling factors, especially land use / land cover. In view of the significant importance of wetlands in the ecosystem and regional economy, an attempt has been made to analyze the impact of land use / land cover dynamics on spatial status of Hokar Sar wetland, a Ramsar Site located in Kashmir Himalayas. The impact assessment has been carried out by analyzing the multi-temporal (1986, 1995, 2005) changes in the upstream land use / land cover characteristics of wetland watershed, by using remote sensing data of SPOT HRV-I, Landsat-ETM and IRS-LISS-III, respectively. The multi-temporal land use / land cover statistics revealed that significant changes have taken place from 1986 to 2005 in the watershed. And in response to these upstream watershed changes, the Hokar Sar wetland has exhibited changes in spatial extension, structure and hydrological characteristics. As a co...
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Disaster scenarios are constructed by integrating natural hazard phenomena and social science sources of information. We profiled 51 natural hazard events of nineteenth century Kashmir that provide insights into the impacts of varying... more
Disaster scenarios are constructed by integrating natural hazard phenomena and social science sources of information. We profiled 51 natural hazard events of nineteenth century Kashmir that provide insights into the impacts of varying degree of severity that spread through the socioeconomic and political systems, influenced adaptation, and increased the consequences of the resulting disasters. The root cause of these disasters was embedded in the social, natural, and political economic systems of their time, where vulnerabilities overlapped and interacted periodically with successive colonial regimes and acted as tipping points. The combined effect of successive colonial regimes, inept administration, rigid political economy, and natural hazards made the situation go from bad to worse and reduced Kashmir to the depths of distress and subjugation. Over the arc of the nineteenth century, a series of disasters led the Kashmiri population to learn how to live with disasters and minimize...
The frequency and severity of climatic extremes is expected to escalate in the future primarily because of the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the... more
The frequency and severity of climatic extremes is expected to escalate in the future primarily because of the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the extreme temperature and precipitation scenarios using climate indices in the Kashmir Himalaya. The analysis has been carried out for the twenty-first century under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and ClimPACT2. The simulation reveals that the climate in the region will get progressively warmer in the future by increments of 0.36–1.48 °C and 0.65–1.07 °C in mean maximum and minimum temperatures respectively, during 2080s (2071–2100) relative to 1980–2010 under RCP8.5. The annual precipitation is likely to decrease by a maximum of 2.09–6.61% (2080s) under RCP8.5. The seasonal distribution of precipitation is expected to alter significantly with winter, spring, and summer seasons markin...
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Land use and land cover (LULC) change has been one of the most immense and perceptible transformations of the earth’s surface. Evaluating LULC change at varied spatial scales is imperative in wide range of perspectives such as... more
Land use and land cover (LULC) change has been one of the most immense and perceptible transformations of the earth’s surface. Evaluating LULC change at varied spatial scales is imperative in wide range of perspectives such as environmental conservation, resource management, land use planning, and sustainable development. This work aims to examine the land use and land cover changes in the Kashmir valley between the time periods from 1992–2001–2015 using a set of compatible moderate resolution Landsat satellite imageries. Supervised approach with maximum likelihood classifier was adopted for the classification and generation of LULC maps for the selected time periods. Results reveal that there have been substantial changes in the land use and cover during the chosen time periods. In general, three land use and land cover change patterns were observed in the study area: (1) consistent increase of the area under marshy, built-up, barren, plantation, and shrubs; (2) continuous decrease...
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Floods have been recurrent phenomena in the study area. A heavy precipitation, usually coming during the end months of the summer season in association with sudden cloudburst, leads to severe flooding in the study area. By now the... more
Floods have been recurrent phenomena in the study area. A heavy precipitation, usually coming during the end months of the summer season in association with sudden cloudburst, leads to severe flooding in the study area. By now the catchment area of the river is already saturated and the high run-off swells the rivers beyond their capacity. The present study describes the application of HEC RAS Model for flood studies in the river Jhelum Kashmir valley. The peak flood records were used as inputs into HEC RAS model to find out the resultant expected flood levels. The resultant output generated by the model shows an overflow at maximum locations of the river under study for 50 years and above return period. This purpose is to give a hand to policy makers, planners and insurers, to develop a robust strategy for the development of flood mitigation measures and plans to minimise the losses associated with the disaster in the study area.