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    Kristian Lynch

    Celiac disease is associated with tissue transglutaminase autoantibodies (tTGAb) and the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-risk alleles DQB1*02 and DQB1*0302. The aim was to estimate the proportion of undiagnosed celiac disease in children... more
    Celiac disease is associated with tissue transglutaminase autoantibodies (tTGAb) and the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-risk alleles DQB1*02 and DQB1*0302. The aim was to estimate the proportion of undiagnosed celiac disease in children with HLA risk at 3 years of age. From a population-based HLA-DQ screening study of newborns born between June 2001 and August 2004 in the southern part of Sweden, 6206 children with HLA-risk alleles were identified and asked to participate at a mean 3.3 +/- 0.4 years of age. As controls, 7654 children with HLA-nonrisk alleles were asked to participate. In all, 1620 (26.1%) children with HLA risk and 1815 (23.7%) controls were screened for tTGAb using radioligand-binding assays. Celiac disease was established by intestinal biopsy in children with a confirmed positive tTGAb test. Twenty-three children reported already having clinically diagnosed celiac disease and did not participate further. In children with HLA-risk genotypes, 73 of 1620 (4.5%, 95% CI 3.5%-5.5%) were tTGAb-positive compared with none of 1815 from the controls (P < 0.0001). Seventy-one children underwent biopsy (1 refused biopsy and 1 biopsy failed), of whom 56 of 1618 (3.5%, 95% CI 2.6%-4.4%) had damaged intestinal mucosa classified as celiac disease. The ratio between clinically and screening detected celiac disease in this study was 1:2.4 (23:56). The proportion of clinically undetected celiac disease may be particularly high among 3-year-old children with HLA-DQB1*02 and DQB1*0302 in Sweden, where these 2 HLA-risk alleles frequently occur.
    It is generally believed that pregnancy is mediated by a Th2 response, which includes cytokines that promote placental growth and are involved in inducing tolerance to the foetus. If the balance between Th1/and Th2-mediated cytokines is... more
    It is generally believed that pregnancy is mediated by a Th2 response, which includes cytokines that promote placental growth and are involved in inducing tolerance to the foetus. If the balance between Th1/and Th2-mediated cytokines is disrupted, systemic and local changes could predispose the foetus to future disease. Therefore, a shift in the Th1/Th2 balance during pregnancy, possibly caused by underlying environmental factors, could be associated with post-partum autoimmune disease in the offspring. Based on this presumption, we used celiac disease as a model to investigate whether autoimmunity is triggered in the foetus during early pregnancy, observed as changes in the mother's cytokine profile. Ten cytokines were measured by electro-chemi-luminescent multiplex ELISA in serum samples obtained from mothers during early pregnancy. Cases included women with children who had developed verified celiac disease before the age of 5, who were compared with other women as matched controls. We observed that 7 out of 10 cytokine levels were significantly increased in our case mothers when compared to controls. Five of these belonged to what is generally known as a Th1-mediated response (TNFα, IFNγ, IL-2, IL-1β and IL-12) and two were Th2 cytokines (IL-13 and IL-10). However, the IL-10 cytokine is known to have features from both arms of the immune system. These results were confirmed in a logistic regression model where five out of the initial seven cytokines remained. This study suggests that increase in Th1 serum cytokines may be associated with celiac disease in offspring.
    ABSTRACT The GAD65 epitope immunoglobulin binding pattern in cord blood of children (n=37), who later developed type 1 diabetes at 3.2-14.9 years of age, was analyzed. First, the binding at diagnosis was compared with that in the cord... more
    ABSTRACT The GAD65 epitope immunoglobulin binding pattern in cord blood of children (n=37), who later developed type 1 diabetes at 3.2-14.9 years of age, was analyzed. First, the binding at diagnosis was compared with that in the cord blood serum. The next comparison was between the cord blood serum and the mothers' serum taken at delivery. Basal GAD65 binding levels were determined in Protein A Sepharose-based radiobinding assays with (35)S-labeled human and rat GAD65, rat GAD67 and GAD65/67 fusion proteins representing N-terminal (N), middle (M) and C-terminal (C) epitopes. In the first comparison, 28/37 children had GAD65 binding above 2.44 relative units (RU) (upper three quartiles), representing a marked increase from birth in the binding to human GAD65 (p<0.0001), rat GAD65 (p<0.0001), N- (p=0.04), M- (p<0.0001), C- (p=0.001), and M + C-epitopes (p<0.0001), but not to rat GAD67. At birth, 9/37 had GAD65 binding above 1.56 RU (upper quartile) demonstrating that their binding of human (35)S-GAD65 was higher in cord blood than in the mother (p=0.008). Higher cord blood binding was also observed for the N- (p=0.02) terminal epitope but not for rat GAD65, rat GAD67, and the remaining epitopes. These data suggest that differences in the epitope GAD65 binding between mother and child at birth are limited. In contrast, the epitope pattern at diagnosis differed from that at birth, supporting the view that disease-associated epitopes develop between birth and diagnosis.
    Background. To characterize participant reasons for withdrawing from a diabetes focused longitudinal clinical observational trial (TEDDY) during the first three study years. Methods. 8677 children were recruited into the TEDDY study. At... more
    Background. To characterize participant reasons for withdrawing from a diabetes focused longitudinal clinical observational trial (TEDDY) during the first three study years. Methods. 8677 children were recruited into the TEDDY study. At participant withdrawal staff recorded any reason parents provided for withdrawal. Reasons were categorized into (1) family characteristics and (2) protocol reasons. Families who informed staff of their withdrawal were classified as active withdrawals (AW); families without a final contact were considered passive withdrawals (PW). Results. Withdrawal was highest during the first study year (n = 1220). Most families were AW (n = 1549; 73.4%). PW was more common in the United States (n = 1001; 37.8%) and among young mothers (p = 0.001). The most frequent protocol characteristic was blood draw (55%) and the most common family reason was not having enough time (66%). The blood draw was more common among female participants; being too busy was more common among males. Both reasons were associated with study satisfaction. Conclusions. Results suggest that, for families of children genetically at risk for diabetes, procedures that can be painful/frightening should be used with caution. Study procedures must also be considered for the demands placed on participants. Study satisfaction should be regularly assessed as an indicator of risk for withdrawal.
    OBJECTIVE : To identify predictors of later study withdrawal among participants active in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) for 1 year.  METHODS : Multiple logistic regression was used to discriminate 3,042... more
    OBJECTIVE : To identify predictors of later study withdrawal among participants active in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) for 1 year.  METHODS : Multiple logistic regression was used to discriminate 3,042 children active in TEDDY for the first 3 years from 432 children who withdrew in Years 2 or 3. Predictor variables were tested in blocks-demographic, maternal lifestyle behaviors, stress and child illness, maternal reactions to child's increased diabetes risk, in-study behaviors-and a final best model developed.  RESULTS : Few demographic factors predicted study withdrawal. Maternal lifestyle behaviors, accuracy of the mother's risk perception, and in-study behaviors were more important. Frequent child illnesses were associated with greater study retention.  CONCLUSIONS : Demographic measures are insufficient predictors of later study withdrawal among those active in a study for at least 1 year; behavioral/psychological factors offer improved...
    Early childhood environmental exposures, possibly infections, may be responsible for triggering islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D). The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) follows children... more
    Early childhood environmental exposures, possibly infections, may be responsible for triggering islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes (T1D). The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) follows children with increased HLA-related genetic risk for future T1D. TEDDY asks parents to prospectively record the child's infections using a diary book. The present paper shows how these large amounts of partially structured data were reduced into quantitative data-sets and further categorized into system-specific infectious disease episodes. The numbers and frequencies of acute infections and infectious episodes are shown. Study subjects (n = 3463) included children who had attended study visits every three months from age 3 months to 4 years, without missing two or more consecutive visits during the follow-up. Parents recorded illnesses prospectively in a TEDDY Book at home. The data were entered into the study database during study visits using ICD-10 c...
    Body size is postulated to modulate type 1 diabetes as either a trigger of islet autoimmunity or an accelerator to clinical onset after seroconversion. As overweight and obesity continue to rise among children, the aim of this study was... more
    Body size is postulated to modulate type 1 diabetes as either a trigger of islet autoimmunity or an accelerator to clinical onset after seroconversion. As overweight and obesity continue to rise among children, the aim of this study was to determine whether human leukocyte antigen DQ (HLA-DQ) genotypes may be related to body size among children genetically at risk for type 1 diabetes. Repeated measures of weight and height were collected from 5969 children 2-4 years of age enrolled in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young prospective study. Overweight and obesity was determined by the International Obesity Task Force cutoff values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) of 25 and 30 kg m(-)(2) at age 18. The average BMI was comparable across specific HLA genotypes at every age point. The proportion of overweight was not different by HL A, but percent obesity varied by age with a decreasing trend among DQ2/8 carriers (P for trend=0.0315). A multivariable regression...
    ABSTRACT In Sweden, a precipitous rise in the incidence of celiac disease (CD) in children below two years of age occurred during 1985-1995 in Sweden. The period is well suited for investigating the socioeconomic and geographical... more
    ABSTRACT In Sweden, a precipitous rise in the incidence of celiac disease (CD) in children below two years of age occurred during 1985-1995 in Sweden. The period is well suited for investigating the socioeconomic and geographical distribution of CD in Sweden. Previous research on the importance of socioeconomic position (SEP) in CD has produced conflicting results. All singleton children born in Sweden 1987-1993 were identified in the Swedish Medical Birth Record. We linked several other national registries to obtain socioeconomic, medical, and demographic information. We applied multilevel (counties, municipalities, and individuals) logistic regression methods to quantify a possible geographical clustering of CD cases and to investigate the association between SEP and CD. Using equalized family income quintile groups as a measure of SEP, we found that in the lowest quintile group the association with CD was for boys OR 1.18 (95 % CI 0.90-1.55) and for girls OR 0.82 (95 % CI 0.67-1.00). Using the Median Odds Ratio (MOR) as a measure of geographical variation clustering, we found that for boys the MOR was 1.76 (95 % CrI 1.46-2.00) and for girls 1.92 (95 % CrI 1.49-2.30). We also identified a reduced odds of CD in offspring having a mother born outside Sweden, boys OR 0.75 (95 % CI 0.57-0.98) and girls OR 0.64 (95 % CI 0.51-0.79). The study show that SEP is of minor importance in the distribution of CD among small children. However, we identified a significant geographical clustering of CD in Sweden during 1987-1993.
    Social epidemiology investigates both individuals and their collectives. Although the limits that define the individual bodies are very apparent, the collective body's geographical or cultural limits (eg... more
    Social epidemiology investigates both individuals and their collectives. Although the limits that define the individual bodies are very apparent, the collective body's geographical or cultural limits (eg "neighbourhood") are more difficult to discern. Also, epidemiologists normally investigate causation as changes in group means. However, many variables of interest in epidemiology may cause a change in the variance of the distribution of the dependent variable. In spite of that, variance is normally considered a measure of uncertainty or a nuisance rather than a source of substantive information. This reasoning is also true in many multilevel investigations, whereas understanding the distribution of variance across levels should be fundamental. This means-centric reductionism is mostly concerned with risk factors and creates a paradoxical situation, as social medicine is not only interested in increasing the (mean) health of the population, but also in understanding and decreasing inappropriate health and health care inequalities (variance). Critical essay and literature review. The present study promotes (a) the application of measures of variance and clustering to evaluate the boundaries one uses in defining collective levels of analysis (eg neighbourhoods), (b) the combined use of measures of variance and means-centric measures of association, and (c) the investigation of causes of health variation (variance-altering causation). Both measures of variance and means-centric measures of association need to be included when performing contextual analyses. The variance approach, a new aspect of contextual analysis that cannot be interpreted in means-centric terms, allows perspectives to be expanded.
    The GAD65 epitope immunoglobulin binding pattern in cord blood of children (n=37), who later developed type 1 diabetes at 3.2-14.9 years of age, was analyzed. First, the binding at diagnosis was compared with that in the cord blood serum.... more
    The GAD65 epitope immunoglobulin binding pattern in cord blood of children (n=37), who later developed type 1 diabetes at 3.2-14.9 years of age, was analyzed. First, the binding at diagnosis was compared with that in the cord blood serum. The next comparison was between the cord blood serum and the mothers' serum taken at delivery. Basal GAD65 binding levels were determined in Protein A Sepharose-based radiobinding assays with (35)S-labeled human and rat GAD65, rat GAD67 and GAD65/67 fusion proteins representing N-terminal (N), middle (M) and C-terminal (C) epitopes. In the first comparison, 28/37 children had GAD65 binding above 2.44 relative units (RU) (upper three quartiles), representing a marked increase from birth in the binding to human GAD65 (p<0.0001), rat GAD65 (p<0.0001), N- (p=0.04), M- (p<0.0001), C- (p=0.001), and M + C-epitopes (p<0.0001), but not to rat GAD67. At birth, 9/37 had GAD65 binding above 1.56 RU (upper quartile) demonstrating that their binding of human (35)S-GAD65 was higher in cord blood than in the mother (p=0.008). Higher cord blood binding was also observed for the N- (p=0.02) terminal epitope but not for rat GAD65, rat GAD67, and the remaining epitopes. These data suggest that differences in the epitope GAD65 binding between mother and child at birth are limited. In contrast, the epitope pattern at diagnosis differed from that at birth, supporting the view that disease-associated epitopes develop between birth and diagnosis.
    The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young planned biomarker discovery studies on longitudinal samples for persistent confirmed islet cell autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes using dietary biomarkers, metabolomics,... more
    The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young planned biomarker discovery studies on longitudinal samples for persistent confirmed islet cell autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes using dietary biomarkers, metabolomics, microbiome/viral metagenomics and gene expression. This article describes the details of planning The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young biomarker discovery studies using a nested case-control design that was chosen as an alternative to the full cohort analysis. In the frame of a nested case-control design, it guides the choice of matching factors, selection of controls, preparation of external quality control samples and reduction of batch effects along with proper sample allocation. Our design is to reduce potential bias and retain study power while reducing the costs by limiting the numbers of samples requiring laboratory analyses. It also covers two primary end points (the occurrence of diabetes-related autoantibodies and the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes). The resulting list of case-control matched samples for each laboratory was augmented with external quality control samples.

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