Working on holistic approaches that aim to capture a wide range of knowledge, researchers are usually faced with phenomena characterized by different time and geographical scales. This is the case of energy systems and Integrated... more
Working on holistic approaches that aim to capture a wide range of knowledge, researchers are usually faced with phenomena characterized by different time and geographical scales. This is the case of energy systems and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). More specifically, the nature of the variable renewable energy supply (VRES) has traditionally posed a barrier to accurately capturing the effects inflicted by VRES in the energy system. This research provides a soft link between an energy system model running with an hourly time step, on the one hand, and a yearly-based IAM, on the other hand, by the implementation of an emulator. The proposal here presented is a bridge, based on different types of knowledge, which successfully allows the flow of information between time scales. Results achieve a 100% renewable energy system on a case of Bulgaria. After a brief literature review on the topic, the method is explained in detail, including some results between EnergyPLAN (energy syst...
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This article describes the results of a study of Ecuador’s energy status, using the system dynamics methodology to model supply, demand and CO2 emissions scenarios for the year 2030. Primary energy production increased in the different... more
This article describes the results of a study of Ecuador’s energy status, using the system dynamics methodology to model supply, demand and CO2 emissions scenarios for the year 2030. Primary energy production increased in the different projected scenarios, with oil as the most important source of energy. The increase observed in final energy consumption was mainly associated with the transport and industry sectors. A reduction in energy intensity was projected for the different scenarios, which could be associated with the projected economic growth. The results obtained were used to build a proposal for energy policies aimed at mitigating emissions. The proposed changes to the national energy matrix could be the factors that will contribute most to the achievement of carbon emission reductions projected by the different scenarios; changes in the energy matrix are mainly associated with the development of projects to replace fossil fuels with renewable energies, mainly hydropower.
Research Interests: Engineering, Environmental Science, Environmental Economics, Climate Change, Renewable Energy, and 14 moreEnergy Policy, Energy Consumption, Hydropower, Cambio climático, Energías Renovables, Physical sciences, Sostenibilidad, Energy Intensity, Greenhouse Gas, Política Energética, Sustainability, ENERGIES, Fossil Fuel, and Energy Supply
There is a general need to facilitate citizens’ understanding of the global sustainability problem with the dual purpose of raising their awareness of the seriousness of the problem and helping them get closer to understanding the... more
There is a general need to facilitate citizens’ understanding of the global sustainability problem with the dual purpose of raising their awareness of the seriousness of the problem and helping them get closer to understanding the complexity of the solutions. Here, the design and application of the participatory simulation game Global Sustainability Crossroads is described, based on a global state-of-the-art energy–economy–environment model, which creates a virtual scenario where the participants are confronted with the design of climate mitigation strategies as well as the social, economic, and environmental consequences of decisions. The novelty of the game rests on the global scope and the representation of the drivers of anthropogenic emissions within the MEDEAS-World model, combined with a participatory simulation group dynamic flexible enough to be adapted to a diversity of contexts and participants. The performance of 13 game workshops with ~420 players has shown it has a sig...
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This is the official repository of the Task 7.4 of H2020 Locomotion project. Feel free to use our data and comment about our work, referencing the main authors of it. Parrado-Hernando, Gonzalo Department of System Engineering and... more
This is the official repository of the Task 7.4 of H2020 Locomotion project. Feel free to use our data and comment about our work, referencing the main authors of it. Parrado-Hernando, Gonzalo Department of System Engineering and Automation School of Industrial Engineering, University of Valladolid, Spain e-mail: gonzalo.parrado@uva.es Pfeifer, Antun Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia e-mail: Antun.Pfeifer@fsb.hr Herc, Luka Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia e-mail: luka.herc@frodo.fsb.hr Gjorgievski, Vladimir Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information Technologies, University Ss Cyril and Methodius, Skopje, North Macedonia e-mail: vladimir.gjorgievski@feit.ukim.edu.mk Batas, Ilija School of Electrical Engineering University of Belgrade, Serbia e-m...
This is the official repository of the Task 7.4 of H2020 Locomotion project. Feel free to use our data and comment about our work by referencing the main authors of it. <strong>"create_inputs.txt"</strong> and... more
This is the official repository of the Task 7.4 of H2020 Locomotion project. Feel free to use our data and comment about our work by referencing the main authors of it. <strong>"create_inputs.txt"</strong> and <strong>"run_simulations.txt"</strong> --> The first Python script creates the input files for EnergyPLAN. The second one runs iteratively EnergyPLAN to generate the outputs of permutations. The<strong> Excel files</strong> saves the information of how data has been prepared to generate the regression models. The <strong>Matlab files</strong> automatically generates the regression models by region of WILIAM (official model of the Locomotion project).
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The climate change that is currently occurring is due to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. The large number of factors and variables that directly or indirectly... more
The climate change that is currently occurring is due to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. The large number of factors and variables that directly or indirectly affect GHG emissions, as well as the multiple and complex relationships between them, makes it difficult to make decisions on the best measures to be adopted to slow down or mitigate climate change and to analyze the consequences that each decision entails. This has led to the development of complex simulation models called Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or Energy-Economy-Environment Models (E3 models), with a particular focus on climate change. The development and use of these models to guide policy decisions on climate change has grown very significantly in recent years, as evidenced by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper is a panoramic review of the main existing IAMs and analyzes their main characte...
This article presents a comparative analysis of energy governance with respect to renewable energy sources in Ecuador. The use of renewable energy sources increases energy security and enables countries to achieve their climate mitigation... more
This article presents a comparative analysis of energy governance with respect to renewable energy sources in Ecuador. The use of renewable energy sources increases energy security and enables countries to achieve their climate mitigation goals. Ecuador’s energy mix is dominated using fossil fuels and produces only 7.8% of its energy supply from renewable energy. The scenario analysis suggests that using the example of international renewable energy policies will achieve sustainable energy development in Ecuador. Relying less on fossil fuels and decentralizing the electricity sector from the use of thermoelectric plants is the great challenge for the country. Using the enormous water potential that Ecuador has and taking advantage of the sources of solar, biomass and wind energy available in the country will reduce the forecast of 60,233.70 KT CO2 by 2030 that would be reached if current consumption conditions and energy mix are maintained, while designing a long-term energy plannin...
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The development of renewable energies has been highlighted as a driver of the energy transition towards a more sustainable society. Despite the well-known benefits in health and regional energy resilience when those sources are leveraged,... more
The development of renewable energies has been highlighted as a driver of the energy transition towards a more sustainable society. Despite the well-known benefits in health and regional energy resilience when those sources are leveraged, wind- and solar-based technologies bring about flexibility challenges in the power system. The variability in the generation of energy from renewable sources is probably its greatest weakness. This problem can be alleviated in different ways, but a detailed statistical analysis of the situation in each country is necessary to find the optimal solution in each case. This article analyses, from historical data and possible scenarios, some consequences that must be taken into account in the growth of electric power generation with renewable sources. Many assessment reports have been published to analyse high shares of the variable renewable energy supply (VRES) contribution in the electricity mix. This article aims to improve the accuracy in such repo...
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Description of the open-source MEDEAS integrated assessment modeling framework, which focuses on the biophysical and economic dimensions, restrictions and interactions arising during energy transitions.
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Climate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO2 emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO2 emission production in... more
Climate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO2 emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO2 emission production in Ecuador during a period between 2000 and 2030, a model has been developed based on the dynamics of the systems supported by Vensim simulation models. The energy matrix of Ecuador has changed in recent years, giving more importance to hydropower. It is conclusive that, if industrialized country policies or trends on the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency were applied, the production of CO2 emissions by 2030 in Ecuador would reach 42,191.4 KTCO2, a value well below the 75,182.6 KTCO2 that would be seen if the current conditions are maintained. In the same way, by 2030, energy intensity would be reduced to 54% compared to the beginning of the simulation period.
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En el presente articulo se describe el desarrollo de un sistema de deteccion y diagnostico de fallos aplicado al reactor quimico de una planta piloto industrial. Se inicia presentando las ideas basicas de los metodos de diagnostico de... more
En el presente articulo se describe el desarrollo de un sistema de deteccion y diagnostico de fallos aplicado al reactor quimico de una planta piloto industrial. Se inicia presentando las ideas basicas de los metodos de diagnostico de fallos basados en el modelo de la planta, especialmente de aquellos que utilizan las ecuaciones de paridad. A continuacion se describen, respectivamente, la planta piloto industrial y el proceso de control de nivel en el reactor quimico implementado en la misma. Se presenta el desarrollo completo de un sistema de diagnostico de fallos aplicado al control de nivel, incluyendo el modelado no lineal del nivel en el reactor y el modelado no lineal de la valvula de control. Se muestra la aplicacion experimental del sistema de diagnostico, particularizada a la deteccion de fallos en el sensor de nivel. 1.Introduccion Es un hecho que los modernos sistemas de control se vuelven cada vez mas complejos y que los algoritmos de control que se implementan son cada ...
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espanolEste trabajo presenta un resumen de las tecnicas utilizadas para la deteccion y aislamiento de fallos en sistemas tecnologicamente complejos. Un breve analisis de los metodos generales introduce el interes por los metodos basados... more
espanolEste trabajo presenta un resumen de las tecnicas utilizadas para la deteccion y aislamiento de fallos en sistemas tecnologicamente complejos. Un breve analisis de los metodos generales introduce el interes por los metodos basados en el modelo matematico del sistema. El concepto de redundancia analitica conduce al diseno de generadores de residuos, cuyas estrategias se derivan de la estructura del modelo escogida. El comportamiento aleatorio de los residuos, debido al ruido, perturbaciones y errores de modelado, obliga a la utilizacion de metodos estadisticos para la deteccion de cambios. Algunas consideraciones sobre la diagnosticabilidad y robustez son comentadas de forma general, mostrando las principales lineas de investigacion actuales. EnglishThis paper presents a survey of the main techniques to detect and isolate failures in complex technological systems. A short description of the general methods introduces the need of the model-based methods. The idea of analytical r...
La produccion de electricidad mediante el uso de paneles fotovoltaicos ha aumentado significativamente durante los ultimos anos en algunos de los paises desarrollados y relativamente soleados. Despues de Alemania, Espana es el pais... more
La produccion de electricidad mediante el uso de paneles fotovoltaicos ha aumentado significativamente durante los ultimos anos en algunos de los paises desarrollados y relativamente soleados. Despues de Alemania, Espana es el pais europeo con mas potencia fotovoltaica instalada y su capacidad solamente es comparable en el resto del mundo con Japon y Estados Unidos. La capacidad total instalada en Espana durante el ano 2007 represento un crecimiento de mas del 200% respecto al acumulado a finales de 2006. Por lo tanto, en terminos de porcentaje de crecimiento, Espana ocupo la primera posicion en 2007. Durante 2008 ya se ha puesto a la cabeza del mercado fotovoltaico en crecimiento absoluto, puesto que los ultimos datos informan que la capacidad acumulada en diciembre de 2008 era de 2900 MW, siendo mucho mayor que lo instalado por Alemania en el mismo periodo. Esto significa ademas un aumento de en torno al 500% durante 2008, algo que ningun otro pais ha logrado. Este espectacular cr...
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