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Background: There is an information gap concerning the prevalence of genital warts infection in Iran. Objectives: The present study aimed to estimate the number of genital warts cases in the city of Bushehr using the multiplier method,... more
Background: There is an information gap concerning the prevalence of genital warts infection in Iran. Objectives: The present study aimed to estimate the number of genital warts cases in the city of Bushehr using the multiplier method, which previously there was no accurate information. Methods: This 2019 cross-sectional study directly counted the number of cases of genital warts referred to private and public clinics in Bushehr City over a month (June). In July, a survey was conducted on the general population of the city in order to obtain information with reference to the number of people with a history of genital warts in the last month and to assess the patients who were referred to a healthcare center. We also interviewed physicians and midwives. Eventually, the number of genital warts cases calculated using the multiplier method (S = P1/P2 × m formula). In order to accurately estimate the confidence interval, a Monte Carlo analysis was used in STATA version 14. Results: The n...
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BACKGROUND Main technique to control acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV) infection is the effective preventive programs among high-risk groups. Modeling is one of the effective methods where there is inadequate data. We used the... more
BACKGROUND Main technique to control acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV) infection is the effective preventive programs among high-risk groups. Modeling is one of the effective methods where there is inadequate data. We used the modes of transmission (MOT) model to predict the transmission of HIV infection in Iran. METHODS We systematically searched published and grey literature to find values for the input parameters of MOT in 2010. The data were discussed by experts before being fed into the model. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, we computed the 95% confidence interval (CI) for the outputs of the MOT. RESULTS The MOT estimates that 9136 new HIV infections would have occurred in Iran in 2010 (95% CI: 6831, 11757). About 56% (95% CI: 47.7%, 61.6%) of new infections were among intravenous drug users (IDUs) and 12% (95% CI: 9.5%, 15%) among their sexual partners. The major routes of direct and indirect HIV transmission in Iran are unsafe injection (68%) and unprotected sexual c...
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BACKGROUND Routine reporting of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Iran is one of the main information sources on STIs, endures some diminution under influence of several factors. We aimed to adjust registered STI data with a... more
BACKGROUND Routine reporting of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Iran is one of the main information sources on STIs, endures some diminution under influence of several factors. We aimed to adjust registered STI data with a model-based approach and estimate the incidence and prevalence of STIs in Iran. METHODS In this cross-sectional study, we developed a stochastic compartmental model considering effects of influential factors on STI reporting process to adjust registered STI data. We reviewed literature and used Delphi method to collect data and estimate model parameters. We calibrated the model using Monte Carol simulation with 95% confidence interval (CI). Finally, we validated the models by comparing their output with investigational data. RESULTS The estimated prevalence of male urethral discharge was 0.40% (95% CI: 0.26%, 0.65%); the prevalence of genital ulcers was 3.68% (95% CI: 2.31%, 6.43%) in women and 0.16% (95% CI: 0.10%, 0.27%) in men. The estimated incidence...
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Background: In Sudan, where studies on HIV dynamics are few, model projections provide an additional source of information for policy-makers to identify data collection priorities and develop prevention programs. In this study, we aimed... more
Background: In Sudan, where studies on HIV dynamics are few, model projections provide an additional source of information for policy-makers to identify data collection priorities and develop prevention programs. In this study, we aimed to estimate the distribution of new HIV infections by mode of exposure and to identify populations who are disproportionately contributing to the total number of new infections in Sudan. Methods: We applied the modes of transmission (MoT) mathematical model in Sudan to estimate the distribution of new HIV infections among the 15-49 age group for 2014, based on the main routes of exposure to HIV. Data for the MoT model were collected through a systematic review of peer-reviewed articles, grey literature, interviews with key participants and focus groups. We used the MoT uncertainty module to represent uncertainty in model projections and created one general model for the whole nation and 5 sub-models for each region (Northern, Central, Eastern, Kurduf...
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Reliable population-based data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) are limited in Iran and self-reporting remains the main source of indirect estimation of STI-associated symptoms in the country. However, where and how the questions... more
Reliable population-based data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) are limited in Iran and self-reporting remains the main source of indirect estimation of STI-associated symptoms in the country. However, where and how the questions are asked could influence the rate of self-reporting. In the present study, we aimed to assess what questionnaire delivery method (ie, face-to-face interview [FTFI], self-administered questionnaire [SAQ], or audio self-administered questionnaire [Audio-SAQ]) and setting (ie, street, household or hair salon) leads to more reliable estimates for the prevalence of self-reported STI-associated symptoms. This cross-sectional study was conducted in winter 2014 on a gender-balanced (50.0% men) sample of 288 individuals aged 18-59 years old in Kerman, Iran. Respondents were recruited in (a) crowded public places and streets, (b) their households, and (c) hair salons. Data was collected on history of current and 6-month (ie, past 6 months) STI-associated sym...
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Verbal Autopsy Questionnaire (VA) is an important tool to estimate the cause of death among those populations lacking an appropriate death registration system. In this study, the validity and reliability of verbal autopsy were assessed.... more
Verbal Autopsy Questionnaire (VA) is an important tool to estimate the cause of death among those populations lacking an appropriate death registration system. In this study, the validity and reliability of verbal autopsy were assessed. The Persian version of the questionnaire was prepared using the translation and back- translation method. In the first and second phases of the study, 213 and 198 families of deceased persons accepted an invitation to complete the questionnaire. A physician determined the cause of death. These causes were compared with the registered cause of death on the death certificate. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), as well as the kappa statistic (between the first verbal autopsy questioning and death registry) were calculated to determine the validity of the questionnaire. Kappa statistic was also used to determine the reliability between the first and second questioning. The sensitivity of the questionnaire varied from 75% among dea...
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Chronic kidney disease is asymptomatic until its last stages and though it is increasing globally, we are faced with paucity of a population-based model to assess this disease, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of... more
Chronic kidney disease is asymptomatic until its last stages and though it is increasing globally, we are faced with paucity of a population-based model to assess this disease, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and trends of CKD according to a new estimation method. Using multiplier method, we estimated the numbers of different stages of CKD based on the number of patients with end stage renal failure from 2006 to 2016. The required multipliers were extracted from a simulation of the disease in Kerman following a dynamic model. The 95% uncertainty interval was computed using Monte-Carlo technique with 10,000 iterations. The prevalence of CKDA (GFR<=90mL/min/1.73m2) and CKDB (GFR less than 60mL/min/1.73m2) patients were estimated to be 7.6% (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 5.7-9.1%) and 1.1% (95% UI, 0.8-1.3%), respectively in 2011. The method revealed that the prevalence may rise up to 25.7% (95% UI, 18.2-32.5%) a...
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Research Interests: Publishing, Middle East Studies, Politics, Prejudice, Medical Microbiology, and 15 moreAccess To Information, Public Health, Medicine, Middle East, Humans, Female, Male, Sexual Behavior, Clinical Sciences, Prevalence, Hiv Aids, Information Dissemination, Public health systems and services research, Hiv seropositivity, and Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
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Background: HIV is a multidimensional problem. Therefore, prioritization of research topics in this field is a serious challenge. We decided to prioritize the major areas of research on HIV/AIDS in Iran. Materials ans Methods: In a... more
Background: HIV is a multidimensional problem. Therefore, prioritization of research topics in this field is a serious challenge. We decided to prioritize the major areas of research on HIV/AIDS in Iran. Materials ans Methods: In a brain-storming session with the main national and provincial stakeholders and experts from different relevant fields, the direct and indirect dimensions of HIV/AIDS and its related research issues were explored. Afterward, using the Delphi method, we sent questionnaires to 20 experts (13 respondents) from different ...